Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the...
US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities...
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate. Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024. Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The...
TLT is at a very well-defined resistance level and overbought. The MACD is also elevated to the same level where we last saw a steep reversal in the price of TLT. To short TLT, I suggest the triple inverse ETN of TLT called TMV.
NASDAQ:TLT Resistance at $100 Pivot, Friday December 15, 2023 NY Fed President Williams stated on CNBC, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." This seemed to conflict with Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. It does not matter what they say it will show up in the charts and our algorithms.
Primary Chart : Monthly Chart of TLT Showing Multi-Decade Support Levels. A fair amount of charts have been published lately on the importance of interest rates, and conversely, long-term bonds, government or high-yield bonds. One well-known TradingView publisher @scheplick went so far as to describe the chart of the US 10-year yield as the most important chart...
... for a .42 credit. Comments: Down ... and out. Originally collected .95 (See Post Below); with the .42 here, 1.37 total.
... for a .97 credit. Comments: Alas, this could not be meaningfully strike improved, so just rolling it out as is. The deeper the in-the-money it is, the farther out in time you have to go to get paid something decent ... . Collected .79 originally (See Post Below) plus the .97 here for a total of 1.76.
... for an .85 credit. Comments: Another that can't be meaningfully strike improved without paying a debit ... . Collected .75 originally (See Post Below). With the .85 here, 1.60 total. And that ... ends the November contract housekeeping portion of our show. Unfortunately, I'll probably have to do some more of this in the December contract (ugh).
... for a .33 credit. Comments: Rolling down and out ... . Originally collected .89 for the 94 (See Post Below). With the credit received for the roll, I've collected a total of 1.22.
... for a .26 credit. Comments: I could let this ride, but would rather be assigned at a lower strike (if it comes to that). Collected .86 for the 91 (See Post Below). Another .26 here results in 1.08 collected.
In the absence of some kind of face-ripping rally, I'm going to be assigned shares in TLT here shortly, starting with what began as an October 20th 93 short put and an October 20th 89 short put. Here, I'm using short puts as an acquisitional tool, attempting to acquire shares in multi-year weakness, after which I'll proceed to cover the shares with short calls. ...
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
US10Y breaking support. Good entry on bond etf's. Only picking up a small amount to get in the door. ZROZ, EDV, and TLT.
... for a 1.20 credit. Comments: Adding a rung out in the Dec 29th expiry at a strike better than what I currently have on. Since I'm in an acquisitional frame of mind with TLT, I'm pretty much going to run with these until they're approaching worthless (i.e., <.05). If I get assigned, I'll proceed to sell call against.
... for a .42 credit. Comments: Received an .88 credit for the 88 (See Post Below); rolling it down and out for a .42 credit. Total credits collected of 1.30. If I'm going to get assigned, lower is naturally better, even if it's only a strike ... .
... for a .65 credit. Comments: Down a smidge and out. .76 collected originally. (See Post Below). With the .65 collected for the roll, 1.41 total.