As a trend trader, this is getting beyond silly now. I'm tired of only playing lower TF charts due to ranging on higher ones! Long story short: - ADX is still well below 20, which signals a lack of trending momentum. So any moves will likely be temporary and fairly shortlived. - D+ (bullish) made the last high above 20, so I'm only really looking for shorts at...
Quite a few mixed signals on the H4. As per my daily chart analysis, I prefer shorts at the moment. Having said that, we're at a pretty good bounce point if you believe in another run at 1225. I think there are 3 likely scenarios: 1) Bounce right around the current level back up to the daily Ichi cloud flat bottom at 1225. If price wants to test 1225 again, I...
We bounced off the crucial 1225 level, the flat bottom Ichimoku cloud. Not only that, D+ is now also crossing 20 while D- has consistently dropped since the bounce. If it remains above 20 going forward, that's a good confirmation for a continued short move. A key level I'm watching is 1183 which could force price to bounce once again. Possible targets if that...
My previous bias was still short, but price moving above 57.75 yet again invalidated this. 57.75 is now my new line in the sand. Above I'm after longs, below I'm after shorts. A couple of interesting things to note: - D+ is above 20 yet again, indicating the bulls are showing some strength and might have woken up from their multi-month coma. - Ichimoku...
My line in the sand is 2078. I'm not considering any longs below it unless i get a really strong bounce signal at around 2040 (and even then I'd only consider a shorter term long trade!). If you check out ADX, you'll see it has considerably dropped since the last low. In short, momentum's been dropping while the last ranging move took place. D- is right above...
ADX has dropped ever since the last high close to 1225, so I simply don't trust this most recent swing. As long as we remain below 1225, I favor shorts. Having said that, if 1208.5 breaks and there's momentum on the H1 chart, I might hitch a ride up to 1225. For now D+ and ADX above 20 suggests bulls are still a bit in control. 1225 will be an interesting level...
As per my daily analysis, it's pretty much a coin flip right now as long as we're stuck in this 54.0 to 57.5 range. ADX has consistently dropped off since the last low, so I don't really trust this last up trend. I'd really want price above 57.5 to consider any sustained long trades towards 70-80. ADX, D+ and D- are all hovering pretty close to the 20 level....
Talking about a snoozefest! Momentum has consistently dropped since July 2014. ADX, D+ and D- are all well below 20 which suggests ranging. D+ and D- have also both dropped off more just recently. Not exactly great trading conditions. ADX needs to cross 20 and either D+ or D- needs to pick up steam for a clear trend to form again. A break of 2040 could net...
The SP500 has a remarkable run since 2009, not least due to all that quantitative easing. Calls for an end to QE and consequently rising interest rates have been growing ever since the latter part of 2014. Since Jan 2015, the SP500 has been ranging in a fairly narrow range and to be honest, it's getting a bit boring. D+ has just this month crossed below 20 and...
My longer timeframe bias is short, but looking at this daily chart, it's a total coin flip. ADX, D+ and D- are all below 20 which basicaly screams "no clue what to do, stay out". Often markets will range when that happens, at least until momentum picks up. So while I favor shorts at the moment, I'm not exactly expecting longer sustained moves in either...
Ever since Jan 2015, the bulls have gained a bit of strength. Having said that, momentum's been dropping ever since they've started sitting in the driver's seat. Also, it seems to be a baby bull with not that much momentum behind it. So overall, this still looks bearish to me with D+ not even above 10 and Ichimoku screaming "short" at me. Personally, I think...
So the 2nd large oil crash in 10yrs just took place last year. The first one happened during the financial crisis and was the result of people expecting less demand for oil as the economy collapsed and tons of people lost jobs. The 2nd crash was supply-lead as excess supply lead to a drop in prices. Remember when oil hit 90 and people said it had bottomed out?...
My higher frame bias is still mostly short, even if there are some potential long alarm bells starting to go off. Any potential upside is pretty much capped at 1300 as a first level and then 1500. I'd be incredibly surprised if we saw gold above 1500 this year or anytime soon. Would need a crazy war or new round of QE. Don't consider this likely despite all...
So on the weekly chart, gold's pretty solidly bearish and has been since 2013. However, here are a few things that raise my alarm bells, at least until 1128 breaks to the downside: - ADX has been dropping and losing steam for a while now. In short, momentum's not really all that strong. The somewhat ranging market is another sign of lack of trending...
Since Feb 2013, the bears have been in control and ended the major upswing that took place throughout the crisis. However, 2014 wasn't exactly a grea trending year as the first calls for an end to QE grew louder. In short, we had quite a bit of choppiness despite an overall bearish sentiment. One thing to note is that ADX has consistently dropped ever since the...
The weekly chart shows a lack of true momentum, so I'm only after shorter term trades at the moment. The daily chart suggests the bears are more in control with D- crossing the 20 level. ADX bounced off that 20 level too and should it continue to rise while bears are in control, we could get a decent down move. Should 2043 break, I'll be in favor of a short...
Ever since November 2014, the SP500 has been super boring and ranging. ADX is blow 20, still falling and while D- (bears) is in power, it seems to be a baby bear without much momentum behind it (yet). I know the SP500 is loooooooong overdue a correction, but sadly it's still too early to hop in. Can't wait for this choppiness to end!!
For the first time since June 2014, ADX ticks up while bears gain strength. This hasn't happened since June 2014. Back then, price reverted back to the upper Ichimoku cloud boundary. My medium to long term outlook is SHORT, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some more spikes up before it really takes off. For me, this is a likely start of a major trend change in...