XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?

NYSE:XOM   Exxon Mobil Corporation
Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that.

But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common.

In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle

Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins

This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s.

For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence

NatGas - No Moon Until Doom

Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct.

A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally.

Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming.

When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal.

On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high.

It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report.

An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position.

It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down.

The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example.

The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level.

There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong.

This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it.

All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase.

Things can change any time.
It looks fairly subtle, but XOM's price action this morning is actually not good for the bull case.

Price really should have ran away from the August 1 and 2 down candles after taking the range high.

It may show the biggest money doesn't want to go long.
If Exxon really were a short, it would mean oil and nat gas are becoming shorts.

Really, the ideal price to look for reversals would be $112-113.

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