Inventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current...
Initial Claims,M. Multi-decade bottom. Potential Spring up into 1998 ascending sloped trend line.
After a failed breakdown below the 2008 and 2012 lows, 30 yr rates have bounced back into a trend line that has mattered since 1980. Was support for decades and may continue to act as resistance as we saw in March 2012 and March 2013. A pullback here at this trend line will be bullish for TLT.
Disturbing Unemployment rate Ascending megaphone
DGS10 breakout to the upside DGS10 Trearsury Constant Maturity Rate breakout to the upside
The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.
10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.
To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by...
USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112% USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4% data up to 10/2014 THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
Powerful relationship between initial jobless claims & overall market.
I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years...
When looking at the Industrial production Index (one of the best forecasters of future recessions) you noticed every top over 50 years, has been marked by a significant angle divergent. @nmike a long time ago introduced me to RSI (50) and how to properly use the indicator. He just recently revisited this topic and I started looking through economic data. What I...
The rally in long dated US treasuries over the past 35 years could easily be called the greatest bull market we've seen in modern times. 10 yr rates have been trending down in a near perfect channel for almost 30 years. Calling for the end of this rally has become a popular pastime. Due to the nature being zero bound on rates, the upper trend line will with...
October was the ninth consecutive month where the headline payrolls figure came in above 200k, rendering this year’s January to October period the strongest in fifteen years. The US NAIRU may be 5.2% or it may be 5.7%. But wherever it lies, the actual unemployment rate is moving swiftly towards it. Friday’s Employment Situation Report showed that the US economy...