US Inflation vs Fed Fund RateThe difference between US Inflation (YoY) and Fed Fund Rate reaches all time high, higher since 1955. I conclude, The Fed is really fall behind the curve (vs Inflation). The Fed must take a huge step. No wonder market worry.by mmdcharts0
FED Balance sheet and Nasdaq ComparisonNASDAQ:QQQ As you can see on the chart, FED balance sheet should be adjusted, as you it just started to go down, but QQQ already is 20% down from the top. so obviously the bear market just started. and I expect more than 50% now. the most powerful and longest bear market of all time. *This is my idea and could be wrong 100%by shkspr3
Inflation creating Structural damage to GDP#GDP is in SERIOUS trouble as it hasn't had previously this much difficulty out pacing inflation (momentum loss). The under performance is historically SEVERE, more that the 1970's. Previous 2 times GDP stalled like this, #spx went nowhere for thousands of days. #goldShortby Badcharts1110
Oil & US Michigan 5 year inflation expectationsUsing a properly tuned indicator, you'll get a Rosetta Stone which unlocks previously unseen relationships & correlations. See how #oil tracks very well the 5 year Stoch indicator for #inflation expectations, while not visibly tracking with such detail, the actual price chart. Longby Badcharts227
MBS - The Darkest end of the PoolBravo TV, off again by over a Trillion, no mention of the Junk Co sitting on Primaries @ $50 they cannot unload. FED MBS is $2.7 Trillion. Commercial Banks hold $3.13 Trillion in MBS. Get it together. ____________________________________________ NO BID is the current arrangement, 30 Year Mortgages up from 3 to 6%. The Fed's average Maturity is 7.1 Years, they'll be bagging these for some time and in order to bail out the primaries they'll have to suck up more. OR they can crash the Bond Markets. They'll attempt to run it off, but they own 28.2% of all Mortgages. The Bond Market is performing the FED's work, cuz the punks at the FED have no intention of powering in QT., rather, much further instability and dislocation Risk. ______________________________________________ THE FED IS TARGETING STOCKS for a reason... Thye need a Inverse Wealth Effect and are winning on that front. Much more to come... FSR is a 50% reduction @ 8K NQ and 2.4K ES. ______________________________________________ Growth, Payrolls, Retails Sales? Fight Inflation? Give us 75 to 100 in July. Bring down Equities to targets and transfer the Wealth. Far and away the easiest "Target" is the Market for Stocks. by HK_L614410
DEAD CAT BOUNCE in #Stocks & Risk on assets.We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically spikes going from very low to very high levels over a short period of months at which point, welcome to HYPERstagflation that make the 1970s look tame. The upshot is #Bitcoin and stocks can fall a lot lower than current levels. Using the rationale that Bitcoin has already fallen 75% so, "How much further can it fall?" can lead to huge sums lost. In 2014 and 2018, it fell -87.5% and -84%, respectively. If Bitcoin were to fall again to such levels, it would represent another -50% drop from -75% if it fell to -87.5% off peak, not just -12.5%. #math Shortby BallaJi331
Effective Funds Rate Federal 6.25.22 Tracking this one. One reason I am pretty confident the swing is coming. I do not see a deflationary crash. I see the hyperinflation first. The crack up boom once the govts "pivot and start the brrrr full blast. Full "economic impact payments" aka UBI universal basic income. It is coming i am very confident as its already being experimented with in fully radical left run states. New Mexico , California are some examples. I know the narrative everyone is buying is a QT like no other. Problem is the repercussions are already being felt around the world. They are causing a global depression that will be unlike anything in human history if they follow their agenda , it will happen either way deflation /inflation. I. No , instead the Fed balance sheet continues to grow. Check it for yourself. Verify I expect all assets to continue to rip parabolically in the coming years . Look at the chart of gold/silver in Weimar. Huge rips. Huge crash. Huge rip higher. on and on. However it is simply a reflection of a loss of confidence and purchasing power of the once mighty dollar. THe game is soon over. CBDC roll out. It is ready. Crypto melt up coming. Stocks melt up. Gold/silver melt up. Basically anything that isnt a paper dollar. Soon they will stop creating physical fiat bc it will cost more to create it thn it is worth. Laugh. I've been talking about all this for years. Anyone who's followed knows me and you can track it all in my posts. Get ready if you arent . Get prepped. You cant eat crypto, gold , silver, or stocks. I wont lecture or ramble on but get your household ready. Hungry people are going to want what you have.by BrandonrG2
Inflation is PeakingPeople are too fearful. Dumps have lost momentum. Bearish forecasts and bad news are not affecting stock and crypto price action too much (the opposite of so much bullish news not pumping equities and crypto too much last year). Time to long.Longby Indotermes2
US Michigan 5 year inflation expectationsIs the Fed monitoring the US Michigan 5 year inflation expectations? A 2022 close above the "final breakout line" could send this spiral out of control. #inflation #xauusd #xagusd #gold #silverLongby Badcharts116
US Michigan 5 year inflation expectationsSurvey says... more inflation! #gotgold #gotsilver #xauusd #xagusd #gold #silverLongby Badcharts116
Consumer Sentiment - 10 AM ESTThe 007s are back, we know full well what that means. Gap to Trap the Safety Trade Baggies again. They never learn. ____________________________________________________ CDs - 3/6 Months @ 2.10 and 2.20, Yr @ 3.30, 4/5Yr @ 3.40.... If ya believe, load the woodshed. Prior to making the same mistake for the 4t time, ask yourselves one simple question - why are these not following the decline in Yields? For the gang who couldn't shoot straight - answers are never a clear target. We'll continue to take the Bond Ape's Bong Money. Toke up Dino and crew, we're hunting you. by HK_L61Updated 5
USIRYY - Inflation 8.6%US inflation shows no signs of slowing down, Annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May of 2022. S&P 500 reacted to the peaking inflation by slowing the market by nearly 22% from ATH. Is really America heading towards a recession? by NICKY-FX2
CPI x SPX x InflationHere is a chart that shows the correlation between the market (SP500) Inflation and Jobless numbers. Jobless numbers is the golden indicator of economic strength though there are many others I look at, and many more economists look at. For our purposes, Jobless numbers show the strength of the economy. We want a LOW number. We can see jobless numbers have been on a slow decline since the pandemic with a slight curve up over the last 2-3 months. Just like with stocks, we want to use our moving averages (One of our TOP indicators) to see if we have broken a trend. We can see with the Jobless numbers, the 50 day moving average is below the 200 day. This typically means bearish but keep in mind low = good with jobless numbers. So we actually WANT the 50 below the 200. The easiest way to remember is the 50 days relationship to the 200 determines the short term trend. If its above, the etf/stat is heading up. IF its below its heading below. Simple. Using this logic, the jobless numbers are in bullish territory. Inflation is a metric we want to see head lower. Its quite apparent its on a rampage. This is bearish for the market outlook as eventually, if left uncontrolled, this will impact businesses bottom lines and show in earnings.. The market is heading down as we can see. So in summary, the economy is strong but inflation is rampant. The strongest relationship we can see is between inflation and the market. We know this is the number one market mover right now. Educationby TeamRVR333
Out of the Box chart !!!US Inflation has reached falling trendline where it has faced resistance for three times. Also, RSI has reached the upper range from where reversal is witnessed. But, if it gives breakout above this trendline then the doors of huge upside will be opened, as it's a symmetrical triangle pattern whose targets are huge. Rising inflation is never favorable for stock market so it's a sign of caution.by Chaser305
Buffet Indicator insightsDespite the recent downturn in the equity market, the Total Market Cap over GDP - also known as Buffet Indicator - clearly shows that there still might be a significant market crash ahead. Assuming the market will reach the " Fairly valued " territory, it means that a further 25% decline is to be expected. Assuming instead that the market will ultimately become " Significantly Undervalued " - as it happened after both most recent market crashes (except after COVID due to the massive Fed intervention) - we should expect a further 50% decline.by a.b6
us inflation rateunited states inflation rate is breaking the resistance level, not a good news . if this breakout sustained , equity will sufferby Tradernawab1