Canada leading the way...As Canada started to cut rates, in reaction to increasing unemployment... It is leading the way for the next US recession. Tic toc... #recession #fomc #boc #fed #unemploymentby Badcharts3
The Printing Company- how it works : - Imagine you can create apples, and that you are the only one in the world able to do that. - So if you create 100 apples, you will make them more rare and unique, so maybe you can sell them for 10$ each one. - So now imagine you create 10,000,000,000 apples, you will have more apples than peoples need to eat, so you will have to sell your apples 0.0001$ - Anyway you don't really care about your apples price goes down because, you can create how many apples as you want, and the world population is growing. - This is exactly the same for the US Dollar : -- Less they print paper, less life is expensive, because we get some kind of USD rarefaction. -- More they print papers more the dollars flood the world, it makes it weak, then you need more papers to buy your home, a new car or food. -- Flooding the world with USD make everyone dependent on USD. - So in graph you can see how many dollars they created post crises 2007 and for Pandemic Covid in 2020. - So what is the situation right now : -- Basically they stopped to print ( that's the main reason DXY Pushed up. "Dollar rarefaction" ) and world economy crashed ( Forex, Stocks , Cryptos ) . -- In time they will have no choice to print again because their system is based on a greedy model. - What you see is the just top of the iceberg, the Fed is a mosquito if you compare it to the BIS ( Bank for International Settlements). - Actually controlling the flux of the creation of the dollar is just controlling the world system, it's a kind of tax form that you don't see, but you pay it much more than you think with inflation. - USD paper money system will end sooner or later for a new monetary model called CDBC. - it will be worst than you think as they will control everyone having a phone on their hand. - The Only way to to counter them is to buy Bitcoin because of his real disinflationary mechanic. - There's no other way to counter the system right now. Happy Tr4Ding ! by thecryerUpdated 3315
FED hawkish with encouraging inflation data. ...are we at a pantomime of a creaking economic system? bond futures are currently pricing in a cut of just over 25 basis points in fed funds between now and the end of the year. While the Fed bides time on a possible interest rate cut, inflation data is encouraging. Core goods (excluding food and energy), the category that drove the inflation spike in 2021 and 2022, registered its biggest deflation since 20 years. Next cut in September? Let me know your opinion with a comment. Thank youShortby NewHOrizons10
Unemployment rate set to explodeUnemployment rate is rising, and the MACD here has never given a false signal after crossover, going back to the 1950's. Crossover does appear imminent, if not a certaintyby GoodTexture0
FRED Federal Reserve Funds Rate: 5.33% | Prime Moverthe higher it goes the more selective issues instruments go up as cost of money is expensive unless a project or asset class has the five forces of porter in its favor more so SCARCITY & Unique Selling proposition to offer for the rest expect volatility foreclosure or takeover by roy.reyes0
Fed Balance Sheet Up, Fed Funds Down, Powell to be Replacedcorrelations drawn using ancient chinese calendar methods takeaway predictions: federal reserve balance sheet to increase, fed funds rate to decrease, and fed chair powell to be replaced, all starting before the end of feb 2025 supporting data and patterns: every fed reserve chair has started AND ended their term in either an ally year, a secret friend year (powell), or within 2 weeks of a ally year (yellen) federal reserve balance sheet has gone up during all ally years since the record began in 2003 (orange line) the fed funds rate (gray line) is always highly volatile during a chairman's oppositional year federal reserve balance sheet remains neutral to down in oppositional years there is not a direct correlation between a falling funds rate and the calendar method, but there is a strong correlation between an increasing balance sheet and a lowering of the fed funds rate. though the correlation between the falling funds rate and the calendar method is secondary, it still may be usefulby GoodTexture0
Jobs, Gold, Spx and Rate Cuts!Initial jobless claims breaking out have a tendency to pressure the @federalreserve to start a rate cutting cycle. Those puzzle pieces falling into place increase odds for a NEW precious metals complex bull era. #jobless #recession #fomc #gold #silver #miners #spxby Badcharts2
Lets Make This A Time Capsule of SortsThis is shaping up to be the biggest distrust in long term lending in the United States in history. As we all know the yield curve is highly inverted and its always a great indicator that short term lending is encouraged more then long. Cant wait to see the short term bag holders that did the minimum down payment HAHAHHAALongby LeapTradesUpdated 0
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007. Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction (attached ideas) Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .by Mr_J__fxUpdated 20
Global Net LiquidityGlobal net liquidity is described by Fed Balance Sheet - RRP - TGA + BoJ Balance Sheet + PBOC Balance Sheet + ECB Balance Sheetby theunderbrothers110
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea. by Mr_J__fxUpdated 5510
No rate cuts in 2024?This is a chart similar to one that Martin Pring published last month. This suggests that there is less likelihood that the Fed will need to cut rates in 2024.by Ben_1148x20
The #FED R FOOLS (or LIAR's) - Chart with 100% chance recession"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or experience in Finance surely they can too!!!by BallaJiUpdated 6
USDBRL impact due net real interest rates BR/USUSDBRL is going higher due net interest rates difference beteween US FED FUND and BRAZIL SELICLongby luciano.admin0
UNEMPLOYMENT % correlation with bull/bear marketsI saw a Alessio video some years ago about this correlation : low and falling unemployment rates as an indicator of incoming crash. Now unemployment rates are climbing from historic lows, as this is bad for the unemployed individual, it is an indicator of better times coming for soc eco by NaturalPatterns0
70's V2While I think we'll see a rate cut cycle start soon, I anticipate it will only restoke inflation.by JebusLives0
Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal? Euro Area Interest Rate ◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected ◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions ◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level ◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024 ◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025 No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner. PUKAby PukaCharts1
$EUINTR - Highest Level since 2000The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ; even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro. The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000. by Mr_J__fxUpdated 668
Inflation Vs. Interest Spread in Major CurrenciesShows the inflation vs interest spread across major western currencies that could provide the opportunity for investment. by spinanickyUpdated 3
Canada Interest RateThere you have it, Canada cuts for the 1st time in over four years! There isn't always a recession after a cut, but the last 4 US recessions started with a rate cut... #recession #inflation #fomc #boc #fed #ratesby Badcharts1
Brutal Truth: War is Good for Biz across the M.I.C.Reflecting on war through industrial eyes. Ukraine's never ending conflict has been good for business across the Military Industrial Compex, across the globe. The threat of an expansionist China has led to wholesale changes in the historically sidelined Japanese military base www.perplexity.ai and business is booming from Mitsubishi Industrial to Rolls Royce to GE Aerospace down the line to various ETF's shown here. Since Jan 2022, pre-Ukraine 2.0 war, you can see the outperformance of these stocks vs. the broadest Wilshire 5000 price index. Expect more. And that includes the laggard that most people don't realize is 50% government/military----- Boeing!Longby Amkeller10
$EUIRYY -EU YoY (CPI) source: EUROSTAT The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023, reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% . Meanwhile, The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, also cooled to 4.2% in October; marking its lowest point since July 2022. However, both rates remained above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The energy cost tumbled by 11.1% (compared to -4.6% in September), and the rates of inflation eased for both food, alcohol, and tobacco (7.5% compared to 8.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (3.5% compared to 4.1%). Services inflation remained relatively stable at 4.6%, compared to 4.7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in October, after a 0.3% gain in September. by Mr_J__fxUpdated 4
Macroeconomic Update (Income, expense, consumer credit)Real income is experiencing a steeper rate of change than real disposable income. This coupled with increased productivity and a declining quit rate is disinflationary, but frustrating for workers. This tends to translate to pessimistic economic outlook. Spending is slightly up to relatively flat while implied savings is decreasing. Don’t be surprised if we see media call this out as alarming. However, this is something that we see in the middle of economic cycles, not at the end. Sharply increasing savings and sharply decreasing spending are traits of downturns, while depleting savings and continued spending favors market continuation. Credit card delinquencies get a lot of press. However, credit card delinquencies pulling away from delinquencies in secure loans is also something that we see in the middle of an economic cycle. Additionally, the relationship between the rate of change for real income, consumer credit, and card delinquencies is similar to the middle of a cycle. After downturns incomes begin to recover, and the consumer borrowing closely follows. The rates of change for each increase and then normalize. Consumers begin to realize a flattening rate of change for income, and then we see credit card delinquencies increase and level off. Longby Ben_1148x20