XAUUSDDon't get annoyed by what you see on youtube. Just follow your system. BTW, a system should not be difficult, but it only should consider market law's. cause and effect, effort vs result, supply and demand. That's all.
Chart Patterns
Smart Money Concepts LuxAlgo: Trade Like InstitutionsMost traders lose money because they buy and sell randomly. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) changes that by focusing on how big institutions actually move the market — using order blocks, liquidity grabs, supply & demand, and fair value gaps.
Now, imagine combining SMC with LuxAlgo’s Smart Money Concepts indicator on TradingView. This tool automatically marks out order blocks, liquidity levels, and imbalances, making it much easier to spot high-probability setups.
🔹 Key Points Covered in My Video
What Smart Money Concepts really mean
How LuxAlgo highlights order blocks, liquidity sweeps & FVGs
Step-by-step trade confirmation using SMC + LuxAlgo
Real chart examples for forex, gold, and indices
If you’re tired of trading blind and want to understand the market like institutions do, this video is for you.
👉 Watch the full video here
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe to my channel FrankFx for more trading tutorials and SMC strategies.
#SmartMoneyConcepts #LuxAlgo #Forex #XAUUSD #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #FairValueGap #FrankFx
Mastering trendbreaks - How to trade it?In this guide will the trendbreaks be discussed. The following subjects will be explained:
- What is a trend?
- What is a bearish trendline break?
- What is a bullish trendline break?
- How to trade a trendbreak?
- Example
What is a trend?
A trend is the backbone of price action in any market. It represents the general direction in which price is moving over a sustained period of time. When price is consistently creating higher highs and higher lows, the market is considered to be in an uptrend. This behavior shows that buyers are in control and are willing to keep paying higher prices with each wave. On the other hand, when price continues to make lower highs and lower lows, the market is in a downtrend. This shows that sellers dominate the market and buyers are unable to push price above previous levels. Understanding trends is essential because it gives traders a framework for anticipating what is most likely to happen next, rather than guessing in random price action.
What is a bearish trendline break?
A bearish trendline break takes place when an established uptrend begins to lose momentum. In an uptrend, price usually respects a rising trendline, bouncing off it multiple times as buyers defend the bullish structure. Eventually, there comes a point when the market can no longer sustain this strength. Price breaks down through the rising trendline, signaling potential weakness. However, the true confirmation of a bearish shift only happens once the market also breaks below the most recent higher low. This is the key moment where structure changes. What was once a sequence of higher highs and higher lows now transforms into lower highs and lower lows, showing that sellers are gaining control. Without this structural shift, the break of the trendline alone might just be a temporary pullback or a false signal.
What is a bullish trendline break?
A bullish trendline break is the mirror image. In a downtrend, price respects a falling trendline as it consistently makes lower highs and lower lows. Each rally upward fails to break past previous highs, confirming sellers’ control. Eventually, price surges and breaks above the falling trendline. Just like with a bearish break, this initial move is not enough on its own. The true sign of reversal comes when price also breaks above the most recent lower high. This action destroys the existing bearish structure, which relied on lower highs to remain valid. Once that lower high is broken, the market shows that buyers have taken back control and a potential uptrend may begin.
How to trade a trendbreak?
For a valid trendbreak, three conditions must come together. First, the price must break the trendline itself, either rising or falling depending on the direction of the trend. Secondly, the breakout needs to be with strong volume. lastly, the price must also break the most recent higher low in an uptrend or lower high in a downtrend. Without this structural break, what looks like a reversal may only be a correction before the market resumes in its original direction. This distinction is crucial because many traders enter too early on a simple trendline break, only to get caught when the market snaps back into the trend. The combination of both the trendline break and the structural break provides much stronger confirmation.
Trading the trendbreak is where discipline and patience make the difference between success and failure. When the structure has been broken, it is tempting to enter immediately in the direction of the new move. But the higher-probability entry usually comes from waiting. Price often pulls back after a break, returning to retest the broken level. This retest can take different forms. Sometimes price simply returns to the broken higher low or lower high and uses it as support or resistance. Other times, price fills what traders call a fair value gap (fvg), which is an imbalance left on the chart when price moves too quickly in one direction without much trading in between. By waiting for this retest, a trader enters at a better price, with a tighter stop loss and greater profit potential.
Example
For example, imagine the market in an uptrend. Price respects a rising trendline until it finally breaks through it. Shortly after, the market breaks below the most recent higher low, confirming the bearish trendbreak. Instead of selling right at the break, the disciplined trader waits. Price pulls back upward to retest the broken higher low, which now acts as resistance. At that moment, the trader sells with a stop loss just above the retest level and targets the next support or previous swing low. This provides a controlled risk and larger potential reward.
The same logic applies to a bullish trendbreak. Price in a downtrend breaks above the falling trendline, then pushes higher to break a lower high, flipping the structure bullish. Price later dips back down to retest the broken lower high or fills a fair value gap. When it holds and begins to rise again, the trader enters long, with a stop below the retest and a target at the next resistance level.
By combining awareness of trendlines, structural shifts, and retest opportunities, traders can filter out false signals and position themselves to catch the early stages of new trends. The trendbreak is not just about spotting the first sign of weakness or strength, but about confirming that the underlying structure has truly changed. This approach gives a trader clarity, consistency, and confidence in execution, making trendbreaks one of the most powerful tools for price action trading.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Dow Theory: Unlocking Market Trends for Consistent ProfitsDow Theory is the foundation of modern technical analysis. Developed by Charles H. Dow in the late 19th century, this theory asserts that the market reflects all information and price movements always follow identifiable trends. To this day, Dow Theory remains a "compass" for traders in understanding price behavior.
6 Core Principles of Dow Theory:
The Market Reflects All
Price includes all information: news, expectations, psychology, and economic data. Therefore, the chart is the most reliable source of information.
The Market Has 3 Trends
Primary Trend: Lasts for several months to years.
Secondary Trend: Adjustments within the primary trend, usually lasting a few weeks.
Minor Trend: Fluctuates over a few days, less significant.
The Primary Trend Has 3 Phases
Accumulation: Smart investors quietly buy.
Public Participation: Large capital flows in, and the trend becomes clear.
Distribution: Large institutions begin to offload, preparing for reversal.
Indices Must Confirm Each Other
Dow used the industrial and railroad indices; today, this means trends are only valid when multiple markets/inter-markets confirm the same direction.
Volume Confirms the Trend
In an uptrend, volume should increase when the price rises and decrease during corrections. The opposite is true for downtrends.
Trends Continue Until Clear Reversal Signals Appear
Traders shouldn’t try to pick bottoms or tops, but rather follow the trend until there's confirmation of a change.
Practical Significance for Traders:
Helps identify the main trend to follow the big money.
Aids in risk management by avoiding trading against the trend.
Provides a comprehensive view: price, volume, and market phases.
Trading Imbalances: How to Use Fair Value GapsDifficulty: 🐳🐳🐋🐋🐋 (Novice+)
This article is designed for traders who want to understand Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) in a simple, practical way — without drowning in complex Smart Money Concepts terminology.
🔵 INTRODUCTION
If you’ve studied Smart Money Concepts (SMC), you’ve likely come across Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). For many, the concept feels overcomplicated. In reality, an FVG is just an imbalance in price — a spot where the market moved so fast that it didn’t fully trade both sides.
🔑When price leaves a gap behind, it often comes back later to “rebalance.” This gives traders powerful zones for entries, exits, and target setting.
🔵 WHAT IS A FAIR VALUE GAP?
A Fair Value Gap is formed over three candles :
Candle 1: The first move (anchor).
Candle 2: The big impulsive candle (the imbalance).
Candle 3: The follow-up candle.
The gap exists when the high of Candle 1 is below the low of Candle 3 (in a bullish case). This leaves an “untraded zone” inside Candle 2.
Think of it as a skipped step. Price rushed through so quickly, there wasn’t enough time to trade at fair value.
🔵 WHY DOES PRICE RETURN TO FVGs?
Markets seek balance. When an imbalance forms, algorithms and institutional flows often revisit the gap to collect liquidity and rebalance orders.
This doesn’t mean every FVG gets filled instantly — some remain open for days or even weeks. But many serve as magnets for price.
🔑Key point: An FVG is not a magic level. It’s a clue about where inefficiency sits.
🔵 HOW TO TRADE FVGS SIMPLY
1️⃣ Mark the Zone
Identify the three-candle imbalance. Highlight the gap inside Candle 2.
2️⃣ Wait for Return
Don’t chase the impulsive candle. Instead, wait for price to retrace into the FVG zone.
3️⃣ Trade the Reaction
Bullish FVG → wait for price to dip into the zone and show bullish reaction
Bearish FVG → wait for price to retest zone and reject downward
Stops are usually placed beyond the gap, targets set toward the next liquidity pool or swing level.
🔵 EXAMPLE SCENARIO
A strong bullish candle leaves an imbalance.
Price continues higher, but a day later revisits the gap.
At bullish rejection candles form with increasing volume.
Entry taken, stop below gap, target at next swing high.
🔵 TIPS FOR ADVANCED TRADERS
Higher timeframe FVGs are stronger and attract price longer.
Not every gap fills — filter with trend direction.
Combine with OBs (Order Blocks) or liquidity zones for more precision.
Ignore small random gaps in low-volume markets.
🔵 CONCLUSION
Fair Value Gaps don’t need to be mysterious. They’re simply imbalances in the auction process. By waiting for price to return and react, traders can build structured entries with defined risk.
🔑Instead of overcomplicating SMC concepts, think of FVGs as footprints of urgency — and opportunities for balance.
Do you already trade FVGs, or is this your first time hearing about them? Share your setups below!
Exploring Supply and Demand in Financial MarketsIn this video, I discuss the concept of supply and demand and its relevance in today’s markets. Price behavior is often shaped by areas where buying and selling pressures are concentrated, and recognizing these dynamics can provide valuable insights into market movement.
📌 Key Highlights
The role of supply and demand in market structure
How institutional activity shapes price zones
Practical examples from recent charts
Why these concepts remain central to market analysis
This video is designed for traders and investors who want a deeper understanding of how markets respond to imbalances between buyers and sellers.
🔖 Hashtags for Reach
#SupplyAndDemand #MarketAnalysis #TradingView #Forex #Investing #FinancialMarkets #PriceAction
What Are Autoregressive Models in Trading?What Are Autoregressive Models in Trading?
Autoregressive (AR) models help traders analyse market movements by identifying statistical relationships in historical price data. These models assume that past values influence current prices, making them useful for spotting trends and price behaviour. This article explores “What is autoregression?”, how AR models function, their role in trading, and how traders apply them to market analysis.
What Is an Autoregressive Model?
Autoregressive (AR) models are statistical tools that can be used in numerous spheres, including market prices, weather, and traffic conditions. They analyse market movements by using past price data to understand current trends. The autoregressive definition refers to a model where each value in a time series depends on previous values plus an error term.
The number of previous values considered is called the “lag order,” denoted as AR(p), where ‘p’ represents the number of lags. In an autoregressive model example, an AR(1) model looks at just the previous value to estimate the current one, while an AR(3) model considers the last three. In trading, the key idea is that if historical prices show a consistent pattern—whether trending or reverting to a mean—an AR model can help identify that structure.
This approach differs from other time series models. Moving averages (MA) smooth out fluctuations by averaging past prices, while autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) combine both approaches and adjust for trends. AR models, however, focus purely on the statistical relationship between past and present values, making them particularly useful in markets where past behaviour has a clear influence on future movements.
Traders use an autoregressive process to explore trends, momentum, and potential reversals in markets that exhibit persistent patterns. However, their effectiveness depends on market conditions and the assumption that past relationships remain relevant—something that isn’t always guaranteed, especially in volatile or news-driven environments.
How Autoregressive Models Work in Trading
Traders use AR models to examine how past prices influence current movements. An autoregressive model trading strategy often involves assessing whether an asset’s price exhibits momentum or mean reversion tendencies. For example, if an AR(1) model shows that today’s price is strongly influenced by yesterday’s price, it may suggest a continuation bias—meaning traders could expect trends to persist in the short term.
In contrast, if an AR(2) or AR(3) model highlights a tendency for prices to move back toward an average after a few periods, it could indicate mean reversion. This is particularly relevant in range-bound markets where prices frequently return to support and resistance levels.
The number of past values included in an AR model is a key decision. Too few lags might miss relevant patterns, while too many can add unnecessary complexity. Traders typically determine the appropriate lag length by evaluating past data and statistical criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).
AR models are more popular in markets where historical relationships hold for extended periods. It’s common to use autoregressive models for trading forex, equities, and commodities, especially in detecting short-term trends or cycles. While they aren’t predictive tools, they provide a structured way to analyse price behaviour, offering traders a statistical foundation for evaluating market movements.
Stationarity and Its Role in AR Models
For an autoregressive time series model to work, the data must be stationary. This means the statistical properties of the time series—such as its mean, variance, and autocorrelation—remain constant over time. If a dataset is non-stationary, meaning its trends, volatility, or relationships shift unpredictably, the AR model's analysis can become unreliable.
Why Stationarity Matters
The autoregressive model, meaning it assumes a consistent statistical structure, can struggle with shifting market conditions if stationarity is not ensured. If a time series is non-stationary, it might show an upward or downward drift, meaning price relationships aren’t consistent over time. This makes it difficult to analyse patterns. For example, a stock experiencing long-term growth won’t have a stable mean, which can distort AR-based analysis.
Testing for Stationarity
Traders often check for stationarity using statistical tests like the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. This test helps determine whether a time series has a unit root—a key characteristic of non-stationary data. If the test suggests a unit root is present, traders may need to adjust the data before using an AR model.
Transforming Data to Stationarity
When data is non-stationary, traders often apply transformations to stabilise it and convert it to an autoregressive model time series. Differencing is a common method, where they subtract the previous value from the current value to remove trends. Log transformations can also reduce the impact of volatility. Once stationarity is achieved, an AR model is believed to be more effective to analyse price movements.
Using an Autoregressive Model in Practice
Understanding how autoregressive models work is one thing—actually applying them in trading is another. These models are primarily used in quantitative strategies, where traders rely on statistical methods rather than gut feelings or news events. While AR models aren’t a complete trading strategy on their own, they can provide valuable insights when used correctly.
Building an AR Model
The first step in using an AR model is preparing the data. Traders typically start with a time series dataset—such as daily closing prices—and ensure it is stationary. If the data shows trends or changing volatility, they may apply differencing or log transformations to stabilise it.
Once the data is ready, the next step is determining the lag order—how many past values should be included in an AR(p) model. This is done through statistical tests like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), which help identify how far back price movements remain relevant. For instance, an AR1 model considers only the previous price point, while an AR3 model incorporates the last three observations. Choosing too few lags might miss important relationships, while too many can overcomplicate the model.
After selecting the lag order, traders fit the AR model using statistical software such as Python’s statsmodels or R’s forecast package. The model estimates how past prices influence current ones, producing a set of coefficients that define these relationships. The trader then analyses these results to determine if the model aligns with market behaviour.
Applying AR Models to Trading
Once built, an AR model provides insights into how past price behaviour influences future movement. For example:
- If an AR(1) model shows a strong positive coefficient, it suggests that today’s price is closely linked to yesterday’s, reinforcing a short-term trend.
- If an AR(2) or AR(3) model suggests a return toward a long-term mean, it may indicate a market where price cycles are present.
Traders use these insights in different ways. Some apply AR models to analyse short-term market momentum, while others use them to examine mean-reverting assets like certain forex pairs or commodities. They can also compare AR-based analysis with other indicators like moving averages or Bollinger Bands to refine their decision-making process.
Autoregressive models are also used in machine learning for time series forecasting, helping algorithms detect patterns in sequential data. In trading, autoregressive model machine learning techniques can refine models by dynamically adjusting lag parameters, improving adaptability to changing market conditions and reducing reliance on fixed assumptions.
ARIMA: Extending AR Models
While AR models work well on stationary data, many financial time series contain trends or seasonality that a basic AR model can’t handle. This is a scenario where Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models become useful. ARIMA combines AR components with moving averages (MA) and differencing (I for “integrated”) to account for non-stationary behaviour.
For example, if a stock price has an upward drift, an AR model alone won’t be sufficient. An ARIMA model can first remove the trend through differencing, and then apply AR and MA components to analyse underlying patterns. This makes ARIMA more flexible for complex market environments.
Challenges and Considerations When Using AR Models
Autoregressive models can be useful for analysing price movements, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Financial markets are complex, and historical price patterns don’t always repeat in the same way. Understanding where AR models fall short might help traders apply them more effectively.
Overfitting and Choosing the Right Lag Order
One of the biggest challenges in using AR models is selecting the right lag order. Including too many past values can lead to overfitting, where the model becomes overly sensitive to historical fluctuations that may not be relevant going forward. Overfitting can create misleading analysis, making the model seem accurate in hindsight but ineffective in real-time market conditions. Traders typically balance complexity with statistical tests like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to determine an optimal lag length.
Market Noise and Unexpected Events
AR forecasting assumes that past price relationships remain relatively consistent. However, financial markets are influenced by a wide range of external factors—economic reports, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events—that models based purely on past prices cannot account for. A market that has historically followed a trend can abruptly reverse due to news or institutional flows, reducing the usefulness of AR-based analysis.
Data Quality and Stationarity
The reliability of an AR model depends on the quality of the data used. Non-stationary data, sudden regime changes, or structural shifts in the market can distort results. Traders often need to check for stationarity and adjust their approach when market conditions change, ensuring that their models remain relevant rather than assuming past relationships always hold.
The Bottom Line
Autoregressive models offer traders a statistical approach to analysing price movements, helping them identify trends and market behaviour based on historical data. While they are not standalone trading signals, they can be valuable when combined with other analytical tools.
FAQ
What Is an Autoregressive Model?
An autoregressive (AR) model is a type of statistical model that analyses time series data by expressing a variable as a function of its past values. It assumes that past observations influence current values, making it useful for identifying patterns in sequential data.
What Is an Autoregressive Model in Finance?
In finance, AR models are used to analyse price movements by examining historical data. Traders apply them to identify trends, momentum, or mean-reverting behaviour in assets like stocks, forex, and commodities. AR models help quantify how past price changes relate to current movements.
What Is an Autoregressive Model for Stock Analysis?
AR models in stock analysis assess price patterns by using historical data to determine potential relationships between past and present values. They can highlight statistical trends but do not account for external market drivers like news or economic events.
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from Rice to Robots, evolution of TA The History and Origin of Technical Analysis
Every chart we study today. Every candlestick, moving average, or RSI indicator is built on centuries of market wisdom. While many believe technical analysis began with Charles Dow in the 1800s, its origins reach much further back, to Amsterdam’s bustling spice markets in the 1600s and Japan’s rice exchanges in the 1700s.
Let’s take a journey through time and see how technical analysis evolved into the powerful tool traders and investors use today.
17th Century: The First Signs of Charting
1. Dutch East India Company Traders (1602)
The Dutch East India Company, established in Amsterdam in 1602, became the first publicly traded company. Its shares were bought and sold on the world’s first stock exchange, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Early traders began tracking price fluctuations in simple graphical forms — the very first steps toward technical analysis.
2. Joseph de la Vega (1650–1692)
A Spanish diamond merchant and philosopher, Joseph de la Vega, authored Confusión de Confusiones (1688), the earliest known book on stock markets. He described investor behavior, speculative patterns, and even outlined concepts resembling modern puts, calls, and pools. His insights captured both the psychology of markets and the primitive beginnings of technical analysis.
18th Century: Japan’s Candlestick Revolution
Homma Munehisa (1724–1803)
In Osaka’s Dōjima Rice Exchange, Japanese rice merchant Homma Munehisa created what remains one of the most widely used charting methods in history: the Japanese Candlestick (then called Sakata Charts).
His book The Fountain of Gold – The Three Monkey Record of Money detailed not only price charts but also market psychology, emotions, and crowd behavior. Today, candlestick patterns remain a cornerstone of technical analysis worldwide.
Late 19th & Early 20th Century: The Modern Foundations
Charles Dow (1851–1902)
Often called the father of modern technical analysis, Charles Dow co-founded Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal in 1889. His market observations led to:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Transportation Average
The Dow Theory, which identified three types of trends: primary, secondary, and minor.
Dow believed markets reflect the overall health of the economy, and his work inspired generations of analysts, including William Hamilton, Robert Rhea, George Schaefer, and Richard Russell.
Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948)
Building on Dow’s ideas, Elliott studied 75 years of stock market data and developed the Elliott Wave Theory, arguing that markets move in recurring wave patterns driven by crowd psychology. In March 1935, he famously predicted a market bottom and the Dow Jones indeed hit its lowest point the following day, cementing his theory’s credibility.
20th Century: The Rise of Indicators
The computer era supercharged technical analysis. Mathematically driven technical indicators were developed to analyze price, volume, and momentum on a scale that manual charting could never achieve.
Example: RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978, RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes on a scale of 0–100.
Above 70 = Overbought (potential sell signal)
Below 30 = Oversold (potential buy signal)
Other popular indicators soon followed, such as Moving Averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, giving traders an expanding toolbox to forecast market movements.
21st Century: From Charts to Algorithms and AI
Today, technical analysis has evolved far beyond hand-drawn charts:
Algorithmic Trading: Automated systems use indicators and strategies to execute trades at lightning speed.
AI Trading Bots: Artificial intelligence combines both technical and fundamental analysis, processing massive datasets to generate signals and even execute trades.
Platforms like TradingView: Empower traders worldwide to build custom indicators, test strategies and share insights, democratizing access to advanced market tools.
nerdy thoughts
From Amsterdam’s first stock traders to Osaka’s candlestick pioneers, from Charles Dow’s theories to AI-powered trading bots, technical analysis has always been about one thing: decoding price to understand human behavior in markets.
It’s a discipline born from centuries of observation, innovation, and adaptation, one that continues to evolve every day.
“Life is a moving, breathing thing. We have to be willing to constantly evolve. Perfection is constant transformation.”
put together by: Pako Phutietsile ( @currencynerd )
courtesy of : @TradingView
this is inspired by a publication i once posted this is the revamped edition...
Why Markets Never Move in a Straight LineHello,
Financial markets, by their very nature, do not move in a straight line. Prices fluctuate, trends develop, and corrections occur along the way. While it is tempting to expect that an upward rally will continue indefinitely, the reality is that markets require pauses and pullbacks to remain healthy. As shown in the chart above markets will always pull back (taking breathers as they move up).
One of the primary reasons markets correct is profit-taking. Early investors, who entered positions at lower prices, often choose to lock in gains once prices rise to attractive levels. Their selling creates temporary downward pressure, leading to corrections. This cycle of entry, accumulation, and profit-taking is not a sign of weakness, but rather a natural rhythm of market activity.
Corrections also serve a vital purpose: they prevent markets from overheating. Extended rallies without pauses often create unsustainable valuations, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal. By allowing prices to retrace, corrections provide opportunities for new investors to enter at fairer levels and for existing investors to add to their positions more strategically.
History consistently shows that long-term market growth is built on a series of advances punctuated by corrections. Even in strong bull markets, prices rarely move in a linear fashion. Instead, they climb higher through a stair-step pattern—rising, correcting, consolidating, and then resuming their upward momentum.
For investors, this means corrections should not always be viewed with fear. Instead, they can be seen as opportunities. As Warren Buffett often reminds us, the key is not to follow the crowd into overbought territory but to wait patiently for value.
Recognizing that they cannot move in a straight line equips investors with patience and perspective—two of the most valuable traits in successful investing.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Double Bottom followed by Higher LowTom Bulkowski analysed 1000s,s of chart patterns. The double bottom pattern showed that many of the patterns performed 50% of the time.
However, the double bottom defined by 2 valleys holding on a parallel support level followed by a Higher low confirms the trend shifting from bearish to Bullish. This pattern occurs frequently at the bottom of a downtrend, and Bulkowski found the % of failure rate of this pattern to be very low. He ranked this pattern a 3 on the scale of powerful trading tools.
1,064-Day Crypto Cycle coming.. Oct 06 2025Are We Nearing a Macro Turning Point?
Markets may look chaotic on the surface, but zoom out far enough and a rhythm begins to emerge. For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, one of the most compelling patterns traders track is the 1,064-day cycle, a rough cadence of boom and bust that has repeated across multiple market eras.
With October 2025 approaching, many analysts are asking: Is another turning point on the horizon?
Why 1,064 Days?
The number isn’t arbitrary. Crypto markets, especially Bitcoin, have displayed a recurring rhythm tied loosely to halvings, liquidity cycles, and investor psychology. Roughly every 1,064 days (about 2.9 years), Bitcoin seems to align with a macro peak or trough.
Cycle 1 (2011–2014): BTC surged from a few dollars to over $1,000 before collapsing in late 2013.
Cycle 2 (2014–2017): The next expansion drove prices to $20,000 by December 2017 — almost exactly 1,064 days later.
Cycle 3 (2018–2021): From the 2018 bear bottom, Bitcoin reached $69,000 in November 2021 — again within the 1,064-day window.
The cycle doesn’t work like clockwork, but the cadence is eerily consistent, suggesting that investor flows, halvings, and liquidity injections may move in long, repeating arcs.
Mapping Today’s Position
If we anchor the most recent cycle to the November 2021 peak, the 1,064-day marker points us toward October 2025.
This timeline aligns uncomfortably well with two forces:
Halving Lag Effect – Historically, the real bull accelerations occur 12–18 months after a halving event (the next one being April 2024). That would put late 2025 squarely in the “froth” zone.
Liquidity Rotation – Global central banks are currently balancing inflation with growth concerns. By late 2025, markets may expect easing, a perfect storm for risk-on assets like crypto.
What the Charts Suggest?
Looking at long-term Bitcoin charts, cycle expansions follow a similar arc:
A steep bull phase fueled by retail and institutional adoption.
A distribution top marked by extreme leverage, retail euphoria, and inflows into speculative altcoins.
A macro correction that wipes out 70–85% of value before a new base forms.
If history rhymes, the 2025 cycle top could be the most significant yet, not just in terms of price, but in market maturity. Institutional ETFs, regulatory frameworks, and global adoption add layers of credibility that were absent in past cycles.
Why Traders Should Care
Cycle mapping is not about prediction with surgical precision, it’s about framing risk and opportunity.
For long-term investors: Understanding that late 2025 could coincide with a major top helps avoid FOMO and plan exits with discipline.
For swing traders: These cycles offer context for positioning. Bull legs tend to accelerate in the 6–12 months before the cycle peak.
For macro thinkers: If crypto follows this cycle, it could front-run global liquidity shifts, making it a leading indicator for risk appetite.
nerdy thoughts : The Clock Is Ticking
The 1,064-day cycle isn’t prophecy. But its consistency across three full eras of crypto history makes it hard to dismiss. As October 2025 approaches, traders would do well to watch for echoes of past patterns: accelerating inflows, leverage buildup, and sentiment peaking.
Because in crypto, time doesn’t just pass, it compounds into cycles. And those cycles often whisper what comes next.
put together by: @currencynerd
courtesy of : @TradingView
Ultimate Guide to Master: Rejection BlocksRejection Blocks (ICT Concept) – Complete Guide
1. What is a Rejection Block?
A rejection block is a special type of price level that forms when the market attempts to push through but gets denied and reverses. Unlike a traditional order block, which represents accumulation or distribution by institutions, a rejection block shows a failed attempt to continue in one direction. It is a footprint of rejection and often becomes a strong reaction zone in the future.
There are two types:
Bullish Rejection Block:
Forms from a bearish candle whose low is taken out, but price fails to continue lower and closes back above. The low of that candle becomes the key level.
Bearish Rejection Block:
Forms from a bullish candle whose high is breached, but price fails to continue higher and closes back inside. The high of that candle becomes the key level.
These levels can act as hidden support or resistance and often serve as high-probability entry points when combined with market structure.
2. How to Spot a Valid Rejection Block
To correctly identify rejection blocks, you need to look for:
1. Clear Attempt Beyond a Candle
Price must trade beyond the high or low of a prior candle, suggesting continuation.
2. Failure and Return
After breaching the level, price fails and closes back inside the candle’s body.
3. Liquidity Context
A rejection block is more powerful if the wick that caused it swept liquidity (equal highs/lows or a previous key level).
4. Higher Timeframe Confluence
The best rejection blocks line up with higher timeframe bias (for example, spotting a bearish rejection block inside a 4H premium zone during a downtrend).
3. How to Trade Rejection Blocks
Trading them involves waiting for price to come back to the rejection block level and using it as an entry or reaction zone.
Bullish Setup:
When price trades below a bearish candle, fails, and closes higher, mark the low of that candle. On a retracement, price often retests that level as support.
Bearish Setup:
When price trades above a bullish candle, fails, and closes lower, mark the high of that candle. On a retracement, price often retests that level as resistance.
Entry Technique:
You can enter "blindly" when you're understanding the confluences. But to begin with do this Instead, when price returns to the rejection block, drop to a lower timeframe and look for confirmation such as:
* Fair Value Gap (FVG) entries.
* Market Structure Shift (MSS).
* Liquidity sweeps into the level.
Stop Loss Placement:
Always place stops beyond the rejection candle itself (above the high for bearish RB, below the low for bullish RB).
4. Practical Examples and Market Context
Rejection blocks work best when they appear in the following situations:
Liquidity Sweeps:
After equal highs or equal lows are taken out, a rejection block often marks the failure point.
Inside Premium/Discount Zones:
In a bearish bias, look for bearish RBs in premium pricing. In a bullish bias, look for bullish RBs in discount pricing.
During Consolidation Breakouts:
If the market fakes a breakout and closes back inside, the rejection block often becomes the level to fade the fake move.
For example, if BTC takes out a prior daily high, prints a rejection block, and then closes back inside, the odds of reversal are high, especially if price was already in premium territory.
5. Combining Rejection Blocks with ICT Concepts
To increase accuracy, always combine RBs with ICT’s other tools:
Fair Value Gaps:
If a rejection block aligns with an FVG, it adds strength to the level.
Market Structure Shifts:
A rejection block is more powerful if followed by displacement and an MSS.
CISD Pattern:
A rejection block often forms right after the “Stop Hunt” part of the CISD sequence, serving as a clean entry.
Liquidity Pools:
Look for RBs near equal highs/lows, old highs/lows, or session liquidity (London/New York).
Conclusion
Rejection blocks are subtle but highly effective levels that show where the market tried to extend but failed, leaving behind a hidden form of support or resistance. By themselves they are useful, but when combined with ICT concepts like liquidity sweeps, MSS, and FVGs, they become powerful entry tools. The key is to always wait for price to return and confirm the level before entering, and to only trade them in alignment with higher timeframe bias.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
___________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Take Profit in Trading: How Profit Levels WorkIn trading, profit isn’t secured when you “guess” the market direction — it’s secured when you already know where to close your trade. For this purpose, traders use a tool called Take Profit (TP).
What is Take Profit?
Take Profit is a pre-set price level at which your position automatically closes with profit. In essence, it’s the opposite of a stop-loss, which protects against loss. A TP removes the need to constantly monitor charts and ensures you capture profit exactly where you planned.
Example: A trader enters a long position on BTC at $114,000 and sets a TP at $118,000. Once the price touches that level, the trade closes automatically and profit is secured.
Why Do We Need Take Profit Levels?
The key role of TP is discipline. Without clear targets, traders risk closing trades too early or waiting too long until the market reverses. Take Profit levels help to:
lock in profit step by step,
avoid emotional decision-making,
move stop-loss to breakeven after reaching the first target.
Take Profit Levels (TP1, TP2, TP3, TP4)
In professional trading, as well as with CV_Pro, multiple TP levels are often used:
TP1 — the first target. Partial profit is taken, and stop-loss is moved to breakeven.
TP2 — confirms trend strength and allows further profit-taking.
TP3 and TP4 — extended goals for strong trend moves, when the market offers maximum potential.
This approach is called partial profit-taking. Instead of waiting for the “perfect” level, traders secure profits gradually. This reduces risk and increases consistency.
Take Profit and Trade Management
Working with TP is always a balance between greed and discipline. If the market moves in your favor, TP helps you capture more from the trend, and if the market reverses, you already leave with gains. Remember: it’s better to take profits according to plan than to wait and lose the entire move.
Conclusion
Take Profit is the foundation of professional trading. It turns random entries into a structured strategy. By using TP levels, a trader gains not only profit but also confidence that their trading is controlled and systematic.
Why You Need LASER Focus When You Trade – 4 ReasonsTrading is not just crunching numbers.
It’s also about precision, timing, and strategy.
You need to be a perfectionist when you trade.
Because every action you take will determine where you get in and out.
Every action will determine what possible amount you can lose and what you can win.
Every action will determine whether you will add it to your track record or now.
So, I’m going to help you to develop laser focus when you trade.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might MISS a GREAT Probability Trading SETUP
Picture this…
You’ve been tracking a market for days.
The setup you’ve been waiting for finally emerges.
But you’re distracted. From your job, from an email, from the family, from your mindset or even a social media notification.
Or you have missed an important economic news calender event.
And by the time you refocus, the opportunity has slipped through your fingers.
Trading needs your undivided attention.
Each setup is like a rare gem, and you need to be sharp-eyed to spot it.
Missing out isn’t just about lost potential profit; it’s about missing the chance to execute your well-crafted strategy.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might Type in the WRONG Trading Levels
You have your setup, charts and trading platform all ready.
You’ve analyzed everything perfectly, and have your levels.
But one moment of distraction and you might type in an extra 0 or type in the wrong number.
This can lead to larger losses or even not being able to enter your trade.
Here’s an idea.
Pretend that the trade you are taking is NOT for you but rather for a big client with millions that you need to execute.
Now you will feel more obliged to execute correctly and with laser focus right?
Precision is key.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might Type in the WRONG Volume
Volume is crucial.
It’s the engine behind your trades.
It’s the amount that will determine your potential gain or loss.
If you get in with the wrong volume, it could disrupt your entire plan.
You smirk, but it’s more common than you think.
You need to look at the MINIMUM contract you can trade.
You need to work out the position size with the Position Size Calculator.
Incorrect volumes can inflate risks and distort your position size.
You can’t afford to risk more than you can financially and emotionally handle.
Be more accurate with your position sizing and your portfolio will thank you.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might MISS Adjusting Profit or Stop Loss Levels
It’s common to get into a trade because the market is running away.
But then, you might forgot to put in your stop loss and take profit levels.
This can be dangerous!
Especially if you hold overnight and you aren’t awake to monitor and protect your position.
Especially, when the market gaps and you have no choice but to close your trade.
Profit and stop loss levels are like the safety net and trampoline of your trading strategy.
Keep a close eye on your trades and levels please.
Final words.
Laser focus in trading is CRUCIAL.
You are the boss of your own portfolio, financial situation and strategy.
So act like the boss with precision, accuracy and laser focus.
Let’s sum up why you need to have Laser Focus…
NO LASER FOCUS AND
~ You Might MISS a GREAT Probability Trading SETUP
~ You Might Type in the WRONG Trading Levels
~ You Might Type in the WRONG Volume
~ You Might MISS Adjusting Profit or Stop Loss Levels
Why You Must NOT Multi-Task When Trading – 4 ReasonsWhy You Must NOT Multi-Task When Trading
We are taught to multi-task through life.
To be a jack of all trades.
With trading, it’s a golden rule to NOT multi task.
Your focus diminishes.
Your productivity slows down.
And your confusion goes up.
So we need to instead focus on ONE thing at a time.
Here’s why…
🔍 #1: You Miss Crucial Opportunities
Picture this: you’re juggling several tasks at once.
You’re looking at hundreds of markets.
You’re monitoring all the news events.
Your charts look like a Christmas treed.
You’re looking at social media and emails.
And then what happens?
You miss the important trade line ups.
A slight delay in executing a trade can mean the difference between a profit and a loss.
You see, when you multi-task – your attention is divided.
And great opportunities can slip right through your fingers.
Stay focused. Stay vigilant. That one trade might be your ticket to your next winning streak.
⏱️#2: There Are Delays in Trading Decision Making
Speed is of the essence in trading.
The markets move fast, and so should you.
But when you’re multi-tasking, your decision-making process slows down.
You find yourself second-guessing every move, doubting your strategies, and hesitating just when you need to act.
This delay can be costly.
A missed opportunity, a wrong move, or a delayed reaction can lead to nothing happening when it should.
😵💫 #3: Your Stress Levels Are High
Trading alone is stressful.
The constant flux of the market, the pressure to make the right decisions, and the potential financial stakes are enough to keep anyone on edge.
Now, add multi-tasking to the mix, and you’re looking at a recipe for burnout.
Your brain is not wired to handle multiple complex tasks simultaneously.
This overload increases your stress levels, affecting your mental clarity and emotional stability.
Lower your stress and focus on one task at a time.
Your mind will thank you, and your trading performance will improve.
🎯 #4: You Make More Mistakes – You Need Laser Focus!
I’ve professed the idea of LASER your trades.
Look, Analyse, Setup, Execute and Record.
Focus on one part of your trading at a time and you’ll see better performance.
✅ Summary of Key Points:
#1: You Miss Crucial Opportunities
#2: There Are Delays in Trading Decision Making
#3: Your Stress Levels Are High
#4: You Make More Mistakes – You Need Laser Focus!
Set a Trading TIMER – Mr or Mrs Busy!Hey, Mr. or Mrs. busy!
I get it. Finding time to trade in this busy life, is tough.
But as I like to say.
If you have time to have coffee, go to the bathroom or binge Netflix – you have time to build your financial career.
However, if you find it difficult to be disciplined with your trading.
Thern I have a simple trick for you.
🕒SET A TIMER!
Yes, you read it right. Set a TIMER!
If you’ve got just 15 minutes or up to one hour, make it count.
Let’s dive into how you can master the timer when you trade.
💡REASON #1: Remember Parkinson’s Law
Ever heard of Parkinson’s Law?
It states that work expands to fill the time available for its completion.
In simpler terms, if you give yourself all day to analyze trades, you’ll take all day.
But if you limit yourself to an hour, you’ll focus and give all the attention in just one hour.
You’ll be surprised how much you can achieve.
You see, when you set a timer – it creates a sense of urgency. And it helps ensure you stay on task and get the job done.
🎯REASON #2: The Power of Focused Trading
When the timer is ticking, distractions don’t stand a chance.
You’ll notice your brain kicks into high gear, almost with adrenaline.
And you’ll be able to prioritise the tasks and filter out the noise.
This focused trading approach will help you make quick, effective decisions.
That’s the power of a ticking clock.
📝HOW TO Craft Your Perfect 15 Minutes Trading Plan
Alright, let’s break it down.
How should you structure this golden hour of trading?
5 Minutes: Market Analysis – Start by analyzing the market.
Choose the one watch list and go through it attentively.
5 Minutes: Strategy line-up – Prepare your trades
This is where you’ll go through your watch list again – but set up your potential trades lining up according to your strategy.
This is where you’ll jot down your levels (Entry, Stop loss and take profit).
Maybe you’ll write down some notes on why it lined up and whether it’s a high or medium probability trade.
5 Minutes: Execution – Just take the trades
Now if three or four trades have lined up.
Calculate your position sizes and execute your trades that line up perfectly to the strategy.
That’s it…
Now obviously, if you’re following a trading mentor’s style, trades etc… You’ll need less time.
But you’ll need a strategy to follow whenever a trading idea comes out including:
Having your trading platform opened on your devices
Having your position sizes calculated already according to what your portfolio is
Knowing when to expect trades by going to the charts and preparing for the day as you’ll have an idea on what your mentor is showing you.
🏋️NEXT: Staying Disciplined with Your Trading Timer
The hardest part?
Sticking to the timer.
When it says start, you start.
When it says stop, you stop.
If you need more time than 15 minutes – then CHOOSE the time that works best.
This habit builds consistency and prevents burnout.
It’s tempting to extend your trading time, especially when you’re in the zone.
But discipline is key.
At the start you might need the timer for the first few weeks. But then the motivation turns into discipline.
And when the discipline turns into integration – you’ll be able to trade without the timer and without any effort.
🚀 It’s more than just a trading timer
Setting a timer doesn’t just help with trading.
It helps you with other areas of life.
You’ll find yourself more organized, efficient, and in control.
Whether it’s a work project or a personal task, this technique can transform your productivity.
Plus, it teaches you to value your time—a priceless lesson in today’s fast-paced world.
🏆FINAL WORDS: Make Every Minute Count
So, next time you’re about to trade, set that trading timer.
Think of FED – Focus, efficiency, and discipline are your new best friends.
Let’s sum up what we covered today.
SET A TIMER!
REASON #1: Remember Parkinson’s Law
REASON #2: The Power of Focused Trading
HOW TO Craft Your Perfect 15 Minutes Trading Plan
NEXT: Staying Disciplined with Your Trading Timer
It’s more than just a trading timer
The Complete Guide to Stop Trading Procrastination – 8 Actions👋 Hey
Ever found yourself staring at your trading platform?
Your finger can either be 1 mm away from the buy button…
Or feel like it’s the distance of the Great Wall of China.
And you’re still not pressing it.
🎉 Welcome to the Procrastinator’s Club!
Don’t worry—you’re not alone.
Many traders struggle with procrastination.
The good news? It’s totally beatable.
Let’s dive into why we procrastinate and, more importantly, how to crush it and become the trader you’ve always wanted to be.
❓ Why Do We Procrastinate?
🤔 Doubt Your Trades?
Doubt is a confidence killer.
You’re doubting yourself.
Your system.
The markets.
Even trading as a whole.
This leads to hesitation… and missed opportunities.
🗓️ Skip a Trading Day?
Skipping even one trading day can cost you.
Markets don’t wait.
If you’re not in the game—you can’t score.
Even checking from your phone could make all the difference!
📉 Don’t Monitor Your Results?
If you’re not tracking, you’re guessing.
Are you improving?
Is the market environment helping or hurting you?
Without tracking, you’re flying blind.
💥 6 Ways to Beat Trading Procrastination
✅ #1: Choose Your Trading Days
Pick 3–4 specific days to focus on trading.
Avoid unfavourable times (like low volatility Mondays or dead hours in Gold).
Structure = consistency = confidence.
📋 #2: Set Smaller Tasks
Break your workload into bite-size pieces.
One day: analyse EUR/USD.
Next day: track performance.
Next day: update journal.
Small wins add up!
📊 #3: Track Results on a Specific Day
Pick a review day weekly.
Don’t obsess daily.
Your portfolio’s like your weight—it’ll fluctuate!
Track over time, not minute-by-minute
⏱️ #4: Set a Timer
Got 1 hour? Or just 15 minutes?
Set a timer, remove distractions, and lock in.
Even a focused short session can yield powerful results.
🧠 #5: Self-Talk
Talk yourself into trading—not out of it.
“I’ve got this.”
“I know my system.”
“I’m the boss.”
Say it. Mean it. Do it.
🎁 #6: Reward Yourself
Win or lose—if you followed your strategy, celebrate.
A treat.
A break.
Something fun.
This builds discipline + motivation.
🏁 Final Words
Procrastination is a habit.
But so is discipline.
You now have a toolkit.
So…
When are you taking action?
Tomorrow? That’s procrastination.
Today? That’s progress.
Start small. Just start.
🔥 How to Stop Procrastinating:
Remove distractions
Positive self-talk
Reward yourself
👉 Your future trader-self is already thanking you.
Super Trend Strategies: Mastering Breakouts & RetracementsSuper Trend Unleashed: Mastering Breakouts & Retracements
Hey, fellow traders! Ever wished for a straightforward tool to cut through market noise and identify trends with precision? ✨ Meet the Super Trend indicator – a dynamic, trend-following marvel designed to simplify your trading decisions and highlight high-probability entry points. Understanding this indicator can significantly enhance your market analysis.
Understanding the Super Trend: Your Trend Compass 🧭
At its core, the Super Trend isn’t just another line on your chart; it's a powerful derivative of the Average True Range (ATR) and a multiplier factor. 🧠 The ATR measures market volatility, helping the Super Trend dynamically adjust its distance from the price, ensuring it stays relevant across varying market conditions.
The indicator paints a vibrant line directly on your price chart, switching between green (bullish 🟢) and red (bearish 🔴) to signal the prevailing trend direction.
Interpreting the Signals – The Color Code:
Green Line (Below Price): When the Super Trend line turns green and positions itself below the price candles, it signals an established uptrend. This often suggests a favorable environment for long positions, acting as a dynamic support level. 📈
Red Line (Above Price): Conversely, when the line shifts to red and appears above the price candles, it indicates a downtrend is in play. This typically implies caution for longs or potential shorting opportunities, serving as dynamic resistance. 📉
The Flip 🔄: The real magic happens when the color flips! A change from red to green often serves as a potential buy signal, while a green to red flip can indicate a sell signal.
Mastering Super Trend Strategies: Insights from the BTCUSDT Daily Chart
Let's dissect the BTCUSDT Daily chart to understand Four powerful strategies utilizing the Super Trend indicator:
Strategy 1: The Breakout Blast-Off 🚀
Our BTCUSDT Daily chart beautifully illustrates a classic Super Trend application: The Breakout Trade. Observe the initial period where price consolidated below a clear resistance level, marked as the "Breakout" line. 🚧 This horizontal line represented a significant ceiling that price struggled to surmount.
A powerful surge saw BTC breaking decisively above this resistance. Crucially, at the exact moment of this breakout, the Super Trend line simultaneously flipped from red to a vibrant green and moved to position itself below the price. 🟣 This confluence of strong price action (a clean breakout) and the Super Trend signal (a bullish flip) provides robust confirmation for a long entry. Initiating a trade at this point capitalizes on the momentum generated by the breakout and the confirmed initiation of a new upward trend. It's an aggressive yet calculated entry, based on prior price action providing the foundation.
Same way there was a shorting opportunity using this Breakout Strategy as shown in the chart.
Strategy 2: The Retracement Rebound 🎯
Even after a significant upward move, markets rarely ascend in a straight line. They often retrace or pull back to 'refuel' before continuing their journey. The Super Trend indicator is exceptional at identifying these high-probability pullback opportunities, offering a more conservative entry point. 🌊
Observe how, after the initial breakout and subsequent rally, the BTCUSDT price pulls back towards the active green Super Trend line. This line effectively acts as dynamic support during an uptrend. The key here is patience and confirmation: wait for a confirmation candle (like the strong green candle highlighted within the second purple circle 🟣) that clearly closes above the Super Trend or shows strong rejection from it. This 'bounce' off the Super Trend, coupled with the indicator remaining green (signaling the underlying uptrend is still intact), provides an ideal opportunity to initiate or add to a long position, riding the continuation of the prevailing trend. This strategy minimizes risk by waiting for the market to prove its intent to continue upwards from a key support level.
Strategy 3 Confluence Power: How Price Action & Super Trend Confirm Uptrends! 🤝
Let's turn our attention to the BTCUSDT Daily chart to dissect a powerful entry strategy where price action and the Super Trend align perfectly.
1.Initial Downtrend/Consolidation: Observe the left side of the chart. Initially, the Super Trend is red 🔴, indicating a bearish phase or period of consolidation. Price action might be characterized by lower lows or range-bound movement.
2.The First Hint of a Shift (L to HL): The market begins to show signs of life. After establishing a clear 'L' (Low), the price then forms a 'HL' (Higher Low). This is a crucial early signal from price action – buyers are now defending a higher level than before.
3.The Super Trend Flip: Simultaneously, or very shortly after the price establishes this first Higher Low, the Super Trend indicator performs its critical flip, transitioning from red to vibrant green 🟢. This tells us that the underlying trend, as calculated by the indicator, is potentially shifting.
4.The Confluence Point: Price Action + Super Trend Green Entry! 🚀
The sweet spot, highlighted by the yellow box and arrow labeled "Price action + SuperTrend Green" 🌟, occurs precisely when the price breaks above the previous swing high to establish a new Higher High (HH), and the Super Trend is firmly established as green 🟢.
Why is this a high-conviction entry? It's not just an indicator giving a buy signal; it's the market structure itself confirming a shift in momentum. The sequence of HHs and HLs unequivocally demonstrates that buyers are in control and are pushing prices higher. The green Super Trend acts as a powerful validating filter, confirming the strength and sustainability of this newfound bullish trend. 🤝
The Power of Validation: Initiating a trade at this point capitalizes on a dual confirmation: the market is telling you it's going up through its price structure, and the Super Trend is validating this intent by aligning its trend signal. This significantly reduces the likelihood of false breakouts or whipsaws.
Riding the Trend: Post-Entry Confirmation ✅
Following this confirmed entry, we observe a sustained upward movement in BTCUSDT. The Super Trend line continues to trail below the price, maintaining its green hue 🟢. This serves as a dynamic support level, and as long as the price remains above it, the uptrend is considered intact.
Strategy 4: 4. The Art of Omission: Recognizing False Signals with Super Trend & Price Action. 🛑
In trading, knowing when not to trade is often as crucial as knowing when to enter. While indicators like the Super Trend are invaluable for identifying trends, a common pitfall is to blindly follow every signal. Today, we delve into a critical lesson: how discerning price action can help you avoid "green light, no go" scenarios, saving you from frustrating whipsaws and preserving your precious capital. 💰
1. Super Trend Turns Green: Around mid-May, the Super Trend flipped confidently to green 🟢, typically signaling a long entry. Price did rally initially.
2. Critical Price Action Test: Horizontal Resistance 🚧
As price rose, it hit a significant horizontal resistance around 72,000. Price rallied to this resistance, pulled back, and then tried again, but failed to make a decisive breakout above the previous peak. This formed a double top pattern or a clear ranging environment beneath the resistance.
3. The Disconnect: Green Super Trend vs. Unconfirmed Price Action ⚠️
Crucially, throughout this period, the Super Trend remained green 🟢. However, price action showed a clear lack of conviction to break out and establish new Higher Highs. The market was "chopping" or ranging, not trending.
4. The Verdict: "This Trade Can Be Avoided." 🛑
Despite the green Super Trend, the absence of a clear breakout or sustained bullish price action meant this trade should be avoided. Entering a long position here would be buying into resistance in a non-trending market, often leading to:
o Whipsaws: Repeated stop-loss hits.
o False Breakouts: Brief moves that quickly reverse.
o Trend Reversals: As seen, the lack of conviction eventually led to a downtrend, flipping the Super Trend back to red.
The Power of Confluence 🧘♀️
This example highlights why confluence is vital. Super Trend gives directional hints, but price action provides the ultimate confirmation (or denial) of that trend's strength.
Same for Shorting as well, use power of confluence:
Setting Up Your Super Trend on TradingView: A Quick Guide 🛠️
in.tradingview.com
Adding the Super Trend to your TradingView chart is simple:
1.Click on the 'Indicators' button at the top of your chart. 🔍
2.In the search bar, type 'Super Trend'. ⌨️
3.Select the official 'SuperTrend' by ‘Tradingview’ ✨
4.The indicator will appear on your chart, typically with default settings (Factor: 3, Period: 10).
Customizing for Peak Performance ⚙️
While the default settings are a great starting point, the beauty of Super Trend lies in its adaptability. You can adjust its sensitivity to better suit your trading style and the asset's volatility:
Factor (Multiplier): This adjusts how far the Super Trend line is from the price. A lower factor (e.g., 2) makes it more sensitive, resulting in more frequent flips and potentially earlier signals but also more false signals (whipsaws). A higher factor (e.g., 4 or 5) makes it smoother and less sensitive, leading to fewer signals but potentially confirming trends later.
Period (ATR Length): This determines the number of periods used for the Average True Range calculation. A longer period (e.g., 14 or 20) considers more data, resulting in a smoother ATR and less frequent signals. A shorter period (e.g., 7) makes it more responsive to recent price action.
Experiment to find what complements your trading style and the specific market conditions! 🧪
Important Considerations & Pro-Tips for Success ✅
Not a Standalone Indicator: Super Trend excels when used in conjunction with other analytical tools. Combine it with traditional support/resistance zones, volume analysis, candlestick patterns, or other indicators like RSI or MACD for higher probability trades. 🤝
Volatility Matters: In highly volatile markets, the Super Trend might produce more whipsaws. Be mindful of the market conditions and consider adjusting the settings or confirming with other indicators. 🌪️
Dynamic Stop-Loss Placement: The Super Trend line itself can often serve as an excellent dynamic stop-loss. If the price closes on the opposite side of the line after your entry, it could signal a trend reversal and a good point to exit. 🛑
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Always check the Super Trend on higher timeframes (e.g., Weekly or Daily if trading H4) to confirm the overarching trend before taking trades on lower timeframes. This ensures you're trading in harmony with the dominant market direction. ⏱️
Conclusion: Your Ally in Trend Trading 💰📈
The Super Trend is an indispensable tool for traders looking to identify and ride market trends effectively. Whether you're catching explosive breakouts or entering patiently on retracements, its clear visual signals can provide invaluable clarity. Master its nuances, combine it with sound risk management, and you'll have a powerful ally in your trading arsenal! Happy trading!
I truly believe this easy Super Trend strategy tutorial can be a game-changer for many traders seeking clarity 💡 and profitability 💰. If you've found value in these insights, please hit the Like button on this idea 👍 and boost its visibility by sharing it with your fellow traders 🚀 (or even leaving a supportive comment! 💬). Your engagement ensures this accessible knowledge reaches and empowers more of our community 🤝. Let's build a stronger 💪, smarter 🧠 trading community together!
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Understanding Highs, Sell High?Highs or Lows are best observed in higher timeframes.
I recommend the 4h and weekly timeframe.
Highs are formed during bullish conditions.
After the follow up candlestick closes as a sell/bearish after a buy is observed.
To understand highs one ought to know what to look for?
In the chart above each number represents a high.
1.New high
2.Previous high
3.Invalid high
Next we are going to look at how price affected each high.
1.NEW HIGH
This can be termed as a valid high,
After price broke the previous high(2), the follow up 4h formed a wick then moved lower.
2.PREVIOUS HIGH
Also a valid high.
Although it got took out, it remains valid as after the 4h close, the follow up 4h candlestick never reversed as compared to high 3.
3.INVALID HIGH
Although termed as invalid, when one observes such a high in real time, it is valid and can be useful as an entry model when supported by the right bias, in this case Bearish, it becomes invalid after being wicked out by the follow up candlestick and price moves lower as seen at the blue line.
Invalid highs are observed when there are no highs in sight or they are too far after a candlestick/price closes against the current bias.
10Y Futures Case Study: Trading the Breakout with Defined Risk1. Introduction
The 10-Year Yield Futures market has recently drawn attention as it builds a constructive base and attempts to shift momentum higher. After weeks of choppy movement, price action on the 4-hour chart has resolved into a breakout scenario that could define the next leg for yields. At the heart of this case study is a double bottom formation, a classical reversal structure, confirmed at 4.321. What makes this setup more compelling is the presence of nearby support and resistance zones, providing a precise technical framework to define entries, targets, and stop placement with discipline.
2. Double Bottom Pattern
The double bottom is one of the most reliable chart patterns signaling the potential exhaustion of selling pressure. It typically forms after a downtrend, with two consecutive troughs creating a strong support base before buyers regain control. In the current 10-Year Yield Futures chart, the first bottom occurred near 4.20, followed by a retest close to the same level. The neckline breakout emerged at 4.312, marking the confirmation point. Applying classical pattern analysis, the measured move points toward a target near 4.396. This alignment of structure and projection provides traders with a clear and objective technical roadmap.
3. MACD Confirmation
Momentum indicators often add depth to price action analysis, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is one of the most widely followed. Built from the relationship of short- and long-term moving averages, it helps reveal underlying shifts in strength. In the current 10-Year Yield Futures chart, the MACD displayed a positive divergence: while price carved lower lows during the second bottom, the MACD lines began to slope higher. This divergence often signals weakening bearish momentum and the early stages of accumulation. In this case, it reinforces the validity of the double bottom breakout and its bullish potential.
4. UFO Support & Resistance
UnFilled Orders, or UFOs, represent areas where pending buy or sell orders may remain active, providing powerful zones of support or resistance. On the 10-Year Yield Futures chart, a key UFO support sits just below the breakout at 4.278, making it a logical stop-loss placement to protect the trade. Meanwhile, the upside target of the double bottom at 4.396 coincides with a UFO resistance zone. This overlap creates a clear exit area where supply may re-emerge. By combining classical charting techniques with order-flow–based zones, traders gain a structured plan that balances opportunity with risk control.
5. Trade Idea (Illustrative Case Study)
In this case study, the trade idea develops around the breakout point of 4.312 with the current price at the time of writing this article of 4.321. A trader could consider going long if the market sustains above this neckline level. The projected target is the resistance zone at 4.396, while the protective stop loss can be placed just below the UFO support at 4.278. This creates a defined risk profile with a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2:1. Alternatively, more conservative traders might consider a wider stop beneath the second bottom, offering more tolerance against volatility but at the expense of risk-reward efficiency. Both options maintain risk clarity and structure.
6. Contract Specifications & Margin Overview
The 10-Year Yield Futures (ticker: 10Y or 10Y1! on TradingView) is a cash-settled futures contract that tracks the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield directly. The gain or loss per tick per contract is as follows: 1 tick = 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00.
According to CME’s margin schedule (which changes as market conditions change through time), the current margin requirement is approximately $300 per contract. These relatively modest requirements make the product accessible while still providing meaningful exposure to U.S. interest rate markets.
7. Importance of Risk Management
Even with technically strong setups, the defining factor between consistent traders and inconsistent ones is risk management. Futures are leveraged products, meaning a small price move can translate into significant profit or loss. Using stop-loss orders helps enforce discipline, ensuring that one trade does not spiral into uncontrolled exposure. In this case, the support at 4.278 provides a logical technical area for a stop. Regardless of market outlook, avoiding undefined risk is key to long-term survival and consistency.
8. Closing Remarks
The alignment of a double bottom breakout, positive MACD divergence, and key support and resistance zones creates a textbook technical case study in the 10-Year Yield Futures market. With a clearly defined entry, target, and stop-loss, this setup demonstrates how combining price patterns with momentum and order-flow levels can help build structured trade plans. Yet, no analysis guarantees outcomes, and discipline remains at the core of every approach.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
What Bees Can Teach Us About Trading!At first glance, bees and trading seem worlds apart. But look closer, and you’ll find powerful lessons traders can learn from the hive:
🏗️ Discipline & Structure
Every bee knows its role and sticks to it. Traders too must follow their plan with precision.
🛡️ Risk Management
Forager bees never all leave at once; they manage risk for the colony. Traders should also protect capital and avoid going “all in” on one setup.
🔍 Pattern Recognition
Bees know when and where to collect nectar. Traders rely on recognizing price patterns and market cycles.
⏳ Patience & Consistency
A single bee’s contribution is small, but millions of trips create honey. Trading success also comes from consistent small gains that compound.
🧘 Emotional Control
Bees don’t let fear or greed guide them; they follow their system. The same applies to traders who stay calm and disciplined.
👉 In short: Trade like a bee — structured, patient, and focused on the bigger picture.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
price action resistance level ( without much of indicators)
this is an idea about how to prepare a view on various stocks of an index , based on the index price-action analysis ,
here we have a bearish view on the SIXB index , based on the behaviour of price-action of
recent candles ( 3h) . 3H is taken for having lesser clutter on charts and also have smaller time ( lesser than 1D candle ) frame view .
there is a strong resistance level visible, which has created a selling pressure twice , which created two lower lows .
and as the prices reached this resistance level , it started wobbling up-down , which shows the confusion and two forces acting on the prices ( bull and bears ). ( when the market moves swift and clean , it shows majority of the market players are in agreement of same direction )
here the prices are the resistance level as already seen , and now to take a trade here in the index or index constituents , we need a confirmation of breach of trendline, and prices plotting lower highs and lower lows .
the trade target becomes the first recent support level or cluster of supports ( dotted yellow line ) approx. 4% target
invalidation of this view , or stop loss is also market few pips above the recent top ( which is weaker top ) approx. 2% stop loss
risk to reward : 1 :2
further breaking down the analysis for the bearish view is :
observe the number of candles prices could sustain above the resistance level , very few .. and every time it managed to breach the resistance level it created a LOWER LOW .. which is much much significant thing to note.
and if the trendline is breached now , we can expect a newer lower low which comes to beyond the current cluster of supports as well .
based on this view on the index , one needs to check for the confluence in the major constituents of the same index being discussed . if you find the confluence between the index and the constituent , go on with the trade ...
and if you don't find the confluence then that scrip becomes the candidate for further investigation which is beyond technical analysis ( like financial , fundamental analysis )
Major constituents of the index
NASDAQ:LIN
NYSE:SHW
NYSE:NEM
NYSE:VMC
NYSE:MLM
NYSE:APD
this is just a tutorial for analysing price action , without much use of indicators , for basic starter traders . joining 2-3 blocks of such analysis gives a more robust picture ( some price action , some indicators , and some stock comparison )
hope this helps !
EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Video of my trades last weekVideo explaining my trades last week 11-15th August. I have been trading for years but this is the first time I have ever published my trades. Hopefully this will keep me more disciplined and someone might learn something, so if you have any questions send me a message. Enjoy the weekend.
