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When the stars don’t align

Digital asset-focused financial brand Galaxy Digital has pulled the plug on what would’ve been crypto’s biggest ever deal, and this looks to be only the start of the drama.

USDCNH
It’s giving recession vibes

The Chinese yuan drops rather dramatically against the dollar after economic news worsens global recession concerns.

CELUSD
900º Celsius

Celsius’ bankruptcy filing claims are looking… just a little on the skinny side as the struggling crypto lender continues to see its holdings go up in flames.

NCF1!
Coal investors are burnin’ up

Coal prices are on fire this year as the world’s energy woes worsen and it’s warming investors right up this quarter.

NXST
Broadcast media’s Nextstar?

Nexstar Media Group has big plans to turnaround one of the few broadcast networks currently operating at a loss, but can it keep up with competition that even big dogs are struggling with?

XMRUSD
Practical privacy

Popular privacy token Monero has hardforked – making it even easier to deal in crypto from the shadows.

GOLD
Yielding gains

Gold prices drift higher towards their fourth straight week of gains thanks partly to lower yields as investors digest economic news.

FTTUSD
The bank of Bankman-Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried has his eye on yet another crypto exchange as the founder of Huobi global looks to sell his majority stake.

TSLA
The Tesla Bot gets overtaken

This weekend, a working humanoid robot prototype made by a tech company walked across the stage and wowed everyone, and no… it wasn’t from Tesla.

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Ideas

How to improve your trading by looking at interest rates: Part 2Hey everyone! 👋 This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and fundamental analysis! Last week we took a look at how to find bond prices on our platform, as well as a few quick tips for understanding how and why interest rates move. If you'd like a quick refresher, click the link at the bottom of this post. This week, let's take a look at why understanding interest rates is important to your trading, and how you can use this info to your advantage. You can think of rates markets in three dimensions. 1.) Absolute 2.) Relative 3.) Through Time In other words; 1.) How are rates traded on an absolute basis? AKA, do they offer an attractive risk/reward for investors? 2.) How are rates traded on a relative basis? AKA, what separates bond prices between different countries? 3.) How are rates traded through time? AKA, what is the "Yield Curve"? It's worth taking a little bit of a deeper look at each of these dimensions and how they work. This week we will begin by looking at interest rates from an 'Absolute' standpoint . 🏦 When it comes to looking at bonds as an investment vehicle on this straightforward basis, investors in the broader market will typically look at how attractive bonds are from a yield / total return perspective vs. other asset classes, like equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. When it comes to gauging this total return question, the three main risks are important to know about: 1.) Central Bank Funds Rate risk 2.) Inflation Risk 3.) Credit Risk In other words; 1.) Will the central bank rate move in such a way that makes the interest rate I'm receiving on a bond uncompetitive? 2.) Bonds are loans with timers. Will inflation eat away at my principal in terms of buying power faster than I'm being compensated? 3.) Can my counterparty make me whole when the bond comes due? For the United States, the third question is typically "ignored" as lending money to the U.S. government is oftentimes viewed as "risk free", but in all scenarios understanding the attractiveness of bond yields over given time horizons vs. interest rates and inflation is a huge question. In addition to that, absolute risk/reward for rates needs to be compared to other asset classes. If the S&P 500 is yielding 2%, paid out from the earnings of the biggest companies in the country, then how does the risk of holding equities compare to the risks of holding bonds? Understanding how institutions are judging this decision can often be gauged by looking at the movement of interest rates in the open market. When stocks are outperforming bonds, institutional demand for stocks is higher, indicating that people are feeling good and want to take risk. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it can be indicative that people would prefer to hold 'risk free' interest payment vehicles as opposed to equity in companies with worsening economic prospects. This is the most straightforward way of looking at interest rates - how do they compare to the absolute risks in the market, and how do they compare to other "yield" streams? Do they make sense from a risk/reward perspective? One final thing - If interest rates are rising, then the amount of return needed to "compensate" for taking risk needs to get higher and higher, or other assets like equities begin to look uncompetitive. Additionally, higher interest rates mean that future cashflows are worth less, given that most valuation calculations rely on the "risk free rate". As an example, this implosion happened late last year, as people began selling bonds and interest rates began to rise. As interest rates rose, stocks that had a good chunk of their "value" priced into the future got hit the hardest, as the value of those cash flows in real terms dropped. Interest rates can help a lot for putting the big moves in the market into perspective. 😀 That's all for this week! Next week, we will take a look at how credit risk and FX risk plays into relative bond pricing, and how different sovereign bonds may or may not appear attractive to one another on a relative basis. Our final week will look at the yield curve, and how risk over time affects demand for rates. Cheers! -Team TradingView Here's last week's post if you're not caught up:
Editors' picks
Education
17
Will lean hog catch up?The commodities market is a close-knit one, with the price hike in one commodity often affecting another. Such correlation is evident in agricultural products such as soybean meals, corn, and lean hogs. Lean hog prices are highly correlated with Soybean Meal and Corn as young feeder pigs are fed a diet of roughly 70% corn and 30% soybean meal. As such when corn and soybean prices rise, lean hog prices often follow suit. As spelt out in some of our previous ideas , we think agricultural commodities are due for a rally amid the backdrop of supply chain constraints arising from the Russian-Ukraine crisis, and high fertilizer costs (due to surging natural gas prices) which in turn feed into crop planting cost. Over the past 3 weeks, most agricultural products staged a rebound with Soybean Meal and Corn getting in on the action as well. The rally resulted in Corn prices up 15% and Soybean Meal prices up 10% from 3 weeks ago while lean hog prices lagged, moving only 4.4%. Thus, we think that lean hog prices have room for more upside. Looking at the chart of HEZ2022, we see the lean hog December 2022 futures breaking out of the range established from the start of the year and coming back to retest the range-high. We see this as support for lean hog prices to break up. Should agricultural commodities continue their rally, higher feed cost would be translated into high lean hog prices. Spread Entry at 90.250, stops at 87.850. Targets at 95. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Reference: www.cmegroup.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Editors' picks
Long
1
EUR JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank hiking rates by 50bsp at their July meeting. But the bank quelled any hawkish excitement by explaining they are frontloading hikes and not signalling a higher terminal rate with their bigger than expected July hike. At their July meeting the bank also failed to ease spread fragmentation concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Combined with Italian political concerns, further spread widening looks likely. Right now, even though policy and spreads are important, the main story and driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data continues to surprise to the downside at a rapid pace further stoking recession fears for the Eurozone. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view though. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Also keep Italian politics in mind where successful attempts to avoid a snap election could ease spread widening & support the EUR. Stagflation remain high and recent data has invigorated recession fears, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, especially with Italian politics and the ECB’s failed attempt to reassure markets. Any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy concerns are still in focus, which means watching the Nord Stream 1 flows, if Russia increases gas flows to more regular levels it should ease some energy supply issues. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any good news on water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Also keep Italian politics in mind, where any failed attempts to avoid a snap election should add further pressure on the EUR. Growth concerns continue to weigh on the EUR and means any major negative surprises in incoming growth data (German ZEW data next week) could trigger downside in the EUR. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy concerns are still in focus, which means watching the Nord Stream 1 flows, if Russia decreases gas flows again it should increase concerns and weigh on the EUR. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any bad news on water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets had previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks open up a narrative change for the EUR which will require markets to adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which should weigh on the EUR. Having said that, with lots of bad news priced there is some asymmetric risk to incoming data which means chasing at the lows are dangerous. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the biasremains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
Editors' picks
6
Ethereum (ETH) • The Fork rally & ongoing carry futures tradeIn this video I discuss the ongoing strong ETH rally and some of the components that is make it a very strong one. ETH is hitting here some resistance in the books and there is aggressive short selling in the forward futures market (not the perpetual swaps) The video goes through that is going with Futures and why it is in backwardation. Everyone is very keen for the the 16th September and get those free coins from the fork... only to dump them after. Expect huge volatility around those dates. Watch the video for more details and HIT THE LIKE !
Editors' picks
Long
42
A traders’ week ahead playbook – the equity juggernaut buildsIn the week ahead the known event risks are less impactful than what we faced last week, and we see catalysts that are more idiosyncratic to a set region. The RBNZ should hike by 50bp and indicate more is coming, and while much of this hike is already priced, I favour following the technical breakdown seen in EURNZD, GBPNZD, and GBPAUD EURAUD. We get UK jobs and CPI inflation data (consensus 9.8% YoY ) which could seal a 50bp hike at the 6 Sept BoE meeting, or if weak swing the pricing towards 25bp – the latter which would naturally weaken the GBP – given UK rates market are already pricing 47bp of hikes for the Sept BoE, and there is a ceiling at 50bp (i.e the BoE won't hike by 75bp), then you can understand why the market is selling GBP, certainly against high beta FX (AUD, NZD, MXN). Watch the double top neckline in GBPUSD (daily chart) at 1.2003, if that goes this week then we could be ready to make a move to 1.1800/50. The AUD looks well supported as global (and notably EM) equity markets fly – the Aussie Q2 wage and employment report could solidify the 50bp call for the September RBA meeting and see more being priced into the Aussie rates curve for the remainder of 2022. If equity markets remain supported, which seems likely to be the case, then weakness in the AUD should be mopped up, given its role as a thematic vehicle for trading an improvement in market sentiment – that said, a focus on a broad set of classic fundamental inputs also looks bullish for the AUD – where Aussie 10yr real rates, terms of trade and 2-year nominal bond yields are all outperforming that of the US and many other nations. The FOMC minutes may get some focus, predominantly because this may detail the confidence (or the lack of) the Fed have in forecasting the ‘neutral’ rate – this is the level for the fed funds rate where the monetary policy setting is neither restrictive nor accommodative – they currently see this is around 2.25% to 2.5%, where the current fed funds rate resides now - and while many will dismiss the importance of the neutral rate, it matters because if the Fed are to take the fed funds rate well into restrictive territory then they need to understand the yardstick and the degree by which they plan to tighten. The fact we recently had 2 to 3 rate cuts priced in for 2023, was a reflection that once inflation was on a downwards trajectory then the Fed had licence to take rates out of a restrictive setting and back to a neutral one. (US500 daily) The equity juggernaut rolls on Arguably though the big talking point is around moves in global equity indices, many of which are showing real momentum. I like the JPN225 from the long side, but the NAS100 has rallied for four straight weeks and has led us higher, with names like Apple at the heart of the moves, rallying 33% from its lows of $129. As is the case for the US500 and US30, we look at fibo retracements of the Jan-June and April-June sell-downs as markers (and potential resistance), but we also eye the 200-day MA. The US 500 200-day MA comes in at 4317, so expect this to make headlines if breached. The equity drivers? There is no doubt that better US data has helped drive this bullish equity trend, and we can see the influence by a simple overlap with the Citigroup US economic surprise indices. The harder part for retail is the liquidity aspect and we must understand the plumbing in the US monetary system. So, while we’ve seen securities (Treasuries and Mortgages) holdings start to roll off the Fed’s balance sheet (BS) through QT, what’s important is that the liability side of the BS, and specifically the levels of excess reserves that commercial banks hold with the Fed, have been increasing – and at a faster clip than the securities they hold have fallen – in layman terms, this is essentially QE – better liquidity results in risk-taking. We then turn to flow-based activity – as equities push higher options dealers have covered their delta hedges – while I could spend much time explaining this concept, essentially this has meant dealers buying back a sizeable short S&P500 and NAS100 futures position. We also saw ‘CTAs’ (Commodity Trading Advisors) – systematic trend-following hedge funds that use futures to trade trending markets buying back their short equity index futures exposures and are now net flat. Remember, these players are typically rules-based, and the talk is if S&P500 futures can push above 4310/20, then the trend players will start to buy S&P500 and NAS futures – a trigger then for a further push higher. We also see the VIX index below 20% and S&P500 20- and 30-day realised volatility dropping hard – funds that target a level of volatility – or what we call ‘volatility control’ funds have been reducing cash holdings and adding capital into equities again. If statistical levels of S&P500 volatility continue to decline, then these massive players will add to the equity rally – it will also incentivize FX funds to be long ‘carry’ – or income – which means buying those currencies with the highest yields (or forward points)– we’re talking MXN, ZAR and NZD. The equity rally is tough to fully grasp – getting the intel on many of these flow-based activities and truly understanding what is really going on can be a challenge for many – but as long as the liquidity dynamic holds up, US data comes in line and various big money players chase the tape higher then there may be more juice in the tank – I certainly wouldn’t get in front of it at this stage. Another big week ahead – keep an open mind and prepare to react accordingly.
Editors' picks
Long
5
Dietary Supplements For TradersLong sitting at the computer, constant stress, bad ecology in the cities, unbalanced nutrition all this is detrimental to the health of forex trader, as well as any intellectual worker. Today is not going to be a typical post. We're going to talk about supplements that help improve mental and physical vitality under emotional pressure from the market. I will share with you those remedies that I myself use. What are dietary supplements? Nutritional supplements are supplements, usually based on natural ingredients. They are not medicines, but act similarly to vitamins. There are universal nutritional supplements, and there are specialized ones for bones, brain, heart, etc. Consider dietary supplements not as something magical, but as a kind of bonus, "+1 to HP", if we put it in computer game terms. There are opponents of supplements, there are supporters. Personally, I have tried various supplements for many years, and below is a list of what I think are the best. Of course, it all depends on the individual, for example, I have problems with the stomach and cervical spine, so, let's say, joint supplements for the average person needs less than I do. Try to try everything on your body, diseases (if any) and preferences. My experience is just my experience, not the fact that what works for you is what works for me. Omega Fatty Acids Omega-3, omega-6, omega-7, and omega-9. These are all varieties of fatty acids found in foods such as fish, nuts, some fruits and vegetables. Omega's are healthy bones, immune system, breasts, cardiovascular system, intestines and pancreas as well as improve memory and brain function. I recommend unconditionally to all. I myself have been drinking for many years. Omega-7 is generally rare, and here it is in a complex, perfectly balanced, also containing astaxanthin - the most powerful antioxidant in the world. Cordyceps I use it when I need a lot of energy. When flights, busy days. This is a parasitic fungus that sucks the life juices out of insects that it encounters: grasshoppers, ants, etc. In China, cordyceps has been used medicinally for 5000 years. In addition to energy, it stimulates brain activity by improving blood circulation, strengthens the walls of blood vessels, as well as the immune system. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fakes, be careful. One rule of thumb - cordyceps can't be cheap, as very little of it is extracted. Ginseng Ginseng has long been known for its healing powers. Unlike cordyceps, it gives a deeper energy, not so pronounced, the effect is noticeable a little later. In addition to physical energy helps with mental fatigue. In dietary supplements is usually used artificially grown ginseng, as it is cheaper. Wild ginseng is considered more powerful, I can't recommend any particular supplement, so please try it. If you feel the effect, it means that it is suitable for you. Now I take this one. Ginkgo Biloba Ginkgo Biloba is the plant whose leaf extract is closest to those "NZT pills" from the famous movie " Limitless ". It nourishes the brain, improves memory, attention, mental performance, and slows the aging process of the brain. Result is not instant; miracles is not going to happen. Garlic. Garlic kills a lot of pathogens inside the body, a couple of times a year I take a course. What is interesting, everyone knows about the properties of garlic as an anti-cold and immune boosting agent, but it also helps to reduce cholesterol and improve male potency. Garlic is a dietary supplement in a concentrated form and in large quantities. This will not make your breath stink. Hyaluronic Acid Hyaluronic acid is a constituent of many tissues in our body. Hyaluronic acid is commonly advertised as an anti-wrinkle cosmetic, for younger looking skin, etc. But it is also excellent for joints, muscles and ligaments. Scientists are predicting that in the future, this acid will form the basis of cancer fighting agents. In this way, it is an excellent remedy for the mobility of the joints and has an aesthetic effect on the skin. Blueberries Although modern monitors don't strain our eyes as much, there's still nothing good for vision in the glowing screens of laptops, cell phones and tablets that we all often look at. And it doesn't hurt to take preventive care. Blueberries are very good for vision. And in combination with the substance Lutein, the effect is enhanced. I try to remember to take a course of blueberry extract with lutein once a year to prevent good vision. Calm You also need to drink a soothing magnesium-based mixture. It promotes better sleep and relieves stress, of which there is so much in a trader's job. I drink it at night. How to use supplements? The most important rule is not to overdo it. Make sure that you do not overdose on any components/vitamins. For example, if you drink something with vitamin E, you should not take a supplement at the same time, where vitamin E is also present, albeit as an auxiliary component. Also, watch your own well-being. What works for one person won't necessarily work for another. Conclusion Various supplements help, but they are not a panacea. If you have, God forbid, any diseases, be sure to see a doctor. Also, supplements work many times better when you combine them with physical activity. Yes, that's right: you have to get off the couch and go to the gym. Choose what you like: yoga, aerobics, tennis. It's your business, but physical activity has to be, without it there is no way.
Editors' picks
Education
33
Why Corporate Bonds are not a good option for Retail InvestorsCorporate bonds or tradeable debt instruments issued by corporations are a type of fixed income security. Given the recent media attention and the rising demand for fixed income investments among retail investors, it may come as a surprise that they are not suitable for all investors. Corporate bonds have different risks associated with them than other fixed income investments like savings accounts, money market funds, and even municipal bonds. If you are considering investing in corporate bonds or are already holding some in your portfolio, here is why you should avoid them as a retail investor What is a Corporate Bond? A corporate bond is a debt instrument issued by a corporation to raise money. Corporate bonds typically have a set maturity date after which the outstanding principal will be repaid. There are many kinds of corporate bonds, including investment grade and high yield, government and non-government, and they can be issued in local or foreign currencies. Corporate bonds are often traded on the secondary market, which means they are liquid and can be bought and sold easily. Investors earn a return on corporate bonds by receiving interest payments and by the increase in the bond’s value as it matures. The interest rate on a corporate bond is based on factors like the company’s credit rating, the length of time the bond is outstanding, and the bond yield in the market at that time. Corporate bonds are typically less liquid than stocks, and may have shorter holding periods, especially if you purchase them on the secondary market. Risks of investing in Corporate Bonds Corporate bonds are considered a form of debt financing, and as such, there are risks associated with holding them. The main ones are default, liquidity, and interest rate risk. - Default risk - Investing in corporate bonds entails the risk that the issuing company will default on the payment of interest or the repayment of principal. However, since corporate bonds are issued by companies in different industries, there is a low probability that they will all default at the same time. - Liquidity risk - The risk that you will not be able to sell the investment in a timely fashion at a price that is attractive to you. - Interest rate risk - The risk that if you hold the investment until maturity, you will earn a lower rate of return because interest rates will have risen in the meantime. Why you should avoid Corporate Bonds as a Retail Investor While corporate bonds may be suitable for institutional investors, they are not a good option for the average retail investor. For one, you will have to educate yourself on the various types of corporate bonds, their risks and returns, and what kind of companies you should be investing in. Even if you are successful at taking this on, you are likely to end up with a very concentrated portfolio, which brings us to the next problem. The other issue is that retail investors typically hold a small number of bonds and these bonds are often concentrated in a few issuers. This is not a good strategy because if a company defaults, you could lose a large portion of your capital. This is clearly a bad strategy. So, How about Investment grade debt ETFs? LQD, In a rising interest-rate scenario. The bonds' tenure is clearly working against them, especially since unemployment continues to fall at an astonishing rate. This is not the time to invest in this ETF if the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation. In order to completely comprehend this analysis we must know how important the duration is, while investing in bonds. Duration is an important topic. It is the bond's effective maturity, which means it is oriented to something lesser than the time of the bond's final payment since part of the bond's value, generally from coupons, happens earlier in the bond's existence. If a bond has a longer effective maturity at a fixed interest rate, it indicates that investors are tied to an interest rate that was once market for a longer period of time, and if rates increase as they are currently, you will be bound to an uneconomical rate for a longer period of time. Simply put, longer term bonds lose value more severely when interest rates increase. How maturity of a these bonds (Duration) is affecting LQD Unemployment has gone down despite the increased rates, which has surprised many analysts. The Phillips Curve is back in force, where low unemployment yields high inflation if inflation is kept down, and contrary to common perception, Consumer spending has declined, but unemployment is so low that it might rise again unless the Federal Reserve, which is committed to lowering inflation, continues its anti-inflation campaign. The Federal Reserve has raised rates as well as given gloomy recession predictions, and more banks are following its lead, including the Bank of England. LQD, which has dropped 14% this year, have long-duration bonds, majority of fixed-rate, which is concering for this ETF. Credit Spread Global Cooperate Bonds in general Corporate bonds continuing their strong performance in July, producing $80 million (+76% year on year).  July was the most profitable month of the year for CBs . Their  revenues in 2022 have exceeded from 2021 ($512 million). Average balances increased by 9.8% year on year, average costs increased by 59% year on year, and usage have increased by 27% year on year. Spreads on non-investment grade and high yield bonds continue to widen as corporate prospects deteriorate owing to weakening consumer demand and stricter financial conditions. In-turns , asset values fall, yields rises, and borrower demand increases. However, CG Debt funds have seen the highest monthly outflows in May and June (-$73.7 billion) In July, High Yield Bonds enjoyed the relieve rally. Interest rates vs Corporate Bonds comparison Alternatives to Corporate Bonds for retail investors For retail investors, the most advisable option is to go with government bonds. Government bonds have historically offered a lower risk profile compared to corporate bonds. The best way to go about investing in government bonds is to go for a diversified bond fund. Using a bond fund reduces the risk associated with investing in bonds further as the fund manager may hold a large number of different bonds. If you are looking at a short-term investment horizon (less than 10 years), then you could also opt for short-term government bonds. If you have a long-term horizon, then you could consider a long-term government bond fund. Savings accounts, money market funds, and short-term government bonds are very liquid forms of low risk investment options. Conclusion It is important to understand that the corporate bond market is not risk-free. When interest rates are rising, corporate bonds are generally falling in price as they are competing against government bonds with lower interest rates. In times of economic uncertainty or when interest rates are rising, the risk of default is generally higher for companies issuing corporate bonds. Thus, it is advisable to invest in corporate bonds only when the economy is growing steadily. For retail investors, the best options are to go with government bonds or short-term government bonds. These are low risk, liquid investments and will help you achieve your financial goals.
Editors' picks
Education
10
🔥 ALL Inflation Expectations Beat: Expect Summer Crypto Pump!Recently we've seen a lot of news and headlines surrounding today's CPI. The market expected that we'd go from 9.1% to 8.7% headline inflation. Furthermore, the market expected that the core inflation would rise from 5.9% to 6.1%. As seen on the charts, both expectations have been beaten. Both headline inflation and core inflation beat expectations by 0.2%, which naturally came as a bullish shock to the markets. In my view, this is just what we need to get BTC out of the bear flag pattern in which we've been trading sine June. I'm expecting overall bullishness until at least September. I'm especially looking at the yellow break out area. A close above here means that we will most likely break out of the bull flag and resume our way up. Note that yesterday's post is still valid. We didn't get a bearish close below the blue trend line, so the bulls have the incentive.
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How to improve your trading by looking at interest rates: Part 2Hey everyone! 👋 This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and fundamental analysis! Last week we took a look at how to find bond prices on our platform, as well as a few quick tips for understanding how and why interest rates move. If you'd like a quick refresher, click the link at the bottom of this post. This week, let's take a look at why understanding interest rates is important to your trading, and how you can use this info to your advantage. You can think of rates markets in three dimensions. 1.) Absolute 2.) Relative 3.) Through Time In other words; 1.) How are rates traded on an absolute basis? AKA, do they offer an attractive risk/reward for investors? 2.) How are rates traded on a relative basis? AKA, what separates bond prices between different countries? 3.) How are rates traded through time? AKA, what is the "Yield Curve"? It's worth taking a little bit of a deeper look at each of these dimensions and how they work. This week we will begin by looking at interest rates from an 'Absolute' standpoint . 🏦 When it comes to looking at bonds as an investment vehicle on this straightforward basis, investors in the broader market will typically look at how attractive bonds are from a yield / total return perspective vs. other asset classes, like equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. When it comes to gauging this total return question, the three main risks are important to know about: 1.) Central Bank Funds Rate risk 2.) Inflation Risk 3.) Credit Risk In other words; 1.) Will the central bank rate move in such a way that makes the interest rate I'm receiving on a bond uncompetitive? 2.) Bonds are loans with timers. Will inflation eat away at my principal in terms of buying power faster than I'm being compensated? 3.) Can my counterparty make me whole when the bond comes due? For the United States, the third question is typically "ignored" as lending money to the U.S. government is oftentimes viewed as "risk free", but in all scenarios understanding the attractiveness of bond yields over given time horizons vs. interest rates and inflation is a huge question. In addition to that, absolute risk/reward for rates needs to be compared to other asset classes. If the S&P 500 is yielding 2%, paid out from the earnings of the biggest companies in the country, then how does the risk of holding equities compare to the risks of holding bonds? Understanding how institutions are judging this decision can often be gauged by looking at the movement of interest rates in the open market. When stocks are outperforming bonds, institutional demand for stocks is higher, indicating that people are feeling good and want to take risk. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it can be indicative that people would prefer to hold 'risk free' interest payment vehicles as opposed to equity in companies with worsening economic prospects. This is the most straightforward way of looking at interest rates - how do they compare to the absolute risks in the market, and how do they compare to other "yield" streams? Do they make sense from a risk/reward perspective? One final thing - If interest rates are rising, then the amount of return needed to "compensate" for taking risk needs to get higher and higher, or other assets like equities begin to look uncompetitive. Additionally, higher interest rates mean that future cashflows are worth less, given that most valuation calculations rely on the "risk free rate". As an example, this implosion happened late last year, as people began selling bonds and interest rates began to rise. As interest rates rose, stocks that had a good chunk of their "value" priced into the future got hit the hardest, as the value of those cash flows in real terms dropped. Interest rates can help a lot for putting the big moves in the market into perspective. 😀 That's all for this week! Next week, we will take a look at how credit risk and FX risk plays into relative bond pricing, and how different sovereign bonds may or may not appear attractive to one another on a relative basis. Our final week will look at the yield curve, and how risk over time affects demand for rates. Cheers! -Team TradingView Here's last week's post if you're not caught up:
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A Investor Story That Nobody Heard AboutThis is a fictionalized story about a lady who enjoyed great success throughout her life, investing in the stock market using a simple “Buy and Hold” approach. This article not only tells us how and why she succeeded but how you too can easily master and exploit this truly amazing strategy . Many of us have known or at least heard about someone like Aunt Betsey (if you dont know its ok) She was a kind, good natured person of somewhat eccentric character who, for reasons best known to herself, had never married or entered into any kind of committed relationship. She lived her life alone, comfortably but modestly. When she retired at the mandatory age of 65, she owned a 2 bedroom apartment in what had become a fashionable inner suburb plus a significant portfolio of shares in a dozen or so “substantial” companies. Betsey simply saved some of her wages each week and every few years, when her bank account had built up to a sizable amount, went out and bought another parcel of shares in a company of her choosing. Betsey never sold any of her shares. She simply filled them away with any correspondence under “S” in the small filling cabinet that stood beside a well-crafted oak writing desk in her fussy living room. When dividend cheques arrived she deposited them into her savings account which in the course of time found their way back into further share purchases. Betsey didn’t really know much about the share market, in fact she wasn’t even really interested in it. Her sole motivation for this lifelong habit was that her father had once told her that putting her surplus money into shares was a prudent thing to do. One of the qualities that Betsey valued highly was prudence. When it came time to buy another share parcel, she simply browsed through a couple of stock market magazines during her lunch break at one of the news agencies that provided her long term employment. She jotted down the names of any shares that caught her attention in the small notebook she always carried in her handbag. Most of the stock market jargon in the magazine went way above her head, but that didn’t really faze Betsey. Her final solitary selection on each occasion was made after a judicious reading of the tea leaves at the completion of her evening meal. Betsey passed away at the respectable age of 87, bequeathing a worthwhile inheritance to several nieces and nephews together with a substantial sum to a long favored charity. The accountant who helped finalise her affairs was impressed by Betsey’s financial achievements. He commented to the executor of the estate that she had done far better than if she had just left her money sitting in her bank savings account. Like the accountant, a casual observer may have concluded that Betsy had a knack for successful stock picking or if s/he had known the real truth, that reading tea leaves did in fact have some scientific basis to it after all. If nothing else, Betsey’s efforts surely proved the wisdom of having a well balanced portfolio. Sadly, none of these things are true, although reading tea leaves are probably just as good an indicator for stock picking as input from the majority of expert or professional advisors. A handful of professionals do over time do better than random, while others do far worse. Numerous studies have shown, time and again, that the net results of professional advisers are about the same as tossing a coin. Another thing that may have attributed to Betsey’s success was her market timing. Her entry signal that triggered a stock purchase occurred only when her bank account had reached a certain level. By being totally oblivious to what the markets were doing she inadvertently insulated herself from the generally losing game of trying to pick the tops and bottoms that both amateurs and professionals tend to get caught up in. Many people, who think they understand randomness, are often very surprised by the way it often pans out in practice. A typical response to encountering a proven random result for the first time is “I didn’t think that luck could be responsible for such a wide range of outcomes” . For example it would have been perfectly reasonable for Aunt Betsey to have finished up with a portfolio of 9 losing stocks and 3 winners with just one of those winners responsible for nearly all her profits. If that is so, people will then often ask how one goes about picking these big winners. The answer is you can’t. It is just a matter of luck. Many however, struggle to accept that explanation and attempt to attribute other supposedly rational causes to essentially random events and outcomes. There is a mathematical law in statistics known as the Law of Large Numbers. This law is frequently broken, not just in financial markets but in many other areas of life where statistics are used or quoted in an attempt to make sense of numerical data. The breaking of this law leads to the heinous Crime of Small Samples, committed frequently by traders and investors. In simple terms it means attempting to draw conclusions from inadequate sized data samples. This in turn leads to misleading or incorrect conclusions. Aunt Betsey’s 12 stocks are a very small sample indeed and no explanation, other than a run of good luck, could be rationally drawn from her results. For every person like Betsy who did well, there is another untold story about someone who would have been better off simply leaving their money in the bank. Nobody tells these stories because nobody wants to hear about those who lose. This results is a steady source of “good news” informational bias which is passed on ad nauseam by market professionals and others. This leads to people developing unrealistic beliefs, hopes and aspirations.
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WHAT IS BULL TRAP?📊 ⚠️A bull trap is a false signal about an uptrend in stocks, indices or other stock assets, in which, after an impressive rally, the rate reverses and breaks through the previous support level. Such a change seems to "catch" traders or investors who acted on a buy signal, and brings losses on long positions. A bull trap can also be called a "saw" trend. The opposite of a bull trap is a "bear trap", it occurs when sellers cannot push the price below the resistance level. ❗️A bull trap is a reversal of the exchange rate, due to which market participants hoping for an opposite price movement close positions with unexpected losses. ❗️Bull traps occur when buyers fail to continue the rally that has broken through the resistance level. ❗️Traders and investors may fall into bull traps less often if they analyze the probability of further growth after the breakdown using technical indicators and/or divergence patterns. ✅The essence of the concept ⏺A bull trap occurs when a trader or investor buys an asset that has broken through the resistance level – a generally accepted strategy based on technical analysis. Although there is often a rapid growth of the exchange rate after the breakdown, the price can quickly change direction. This situation is called a "bull trap" – traders and investors who bought the breakdown are "caught" in a trading "trap". ⏺It can be avoided if you observe additional signs of a level breakdown. In particular, the growth of above-average trading volume and the appearance of bullish candles after the breakdown can confirm that the price is likely to continue to rise. And a breakdown in which the volume decreases, or candlesticks with a small body – for example, the doji star – may be signs of a bull trap. ⏺From the point of view of psychology, bull traps occur when bulls are unable to continue the rally after the breakdown of the level, this may be due to the lack of momentum and/or profit taking. Bears, if they see discrepancies, may seize the opportunity to sell the asset and thereby push prices below the resistance level, which may trigger stop-loss orders. ⏺The best way to deal with bull traps is to recognize warning signs in advance, such as a low breakdown volume, and exit the deal as soon as possible. Stop losses, especially if the market is moving fast, can help in this and prevent you from making a decision under the influence of emotions. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
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A tweak to my trading plan. Weird, but stats don't lie.My trading has been evolving at a rapid pace recently. In the last 2 years I made a transition from being a swing-trader to day-trading. Some things, the backbone, of swing-trading carried over to day, but with a lot of extra thing that I didn't utilize prior. I went from taking 5-10 trades a month, to taking 20 trades a week. Results didn't go up linearly, but they did go up nevertheless. The reason for switching to day-trading was due to deeper understanding of my own personal character as well as my flaws. I wasn't that patient to hold a trade for 2-3 days, and if a trade is missed for any reason it would hurt me like hell because I had to wait another 2-3 days for price to develop another one. And what's worse is that when the missed one ended up making profits, and the next one was a statistical loss. That hurt me deep. The switch to day-trading happened primarily because of that, missing a trade here doesn't hurt the same way because there are way more of them constantly developing. On top of that holding period went from 2-3 days on average to 30-60 minutes. I can be in and out quicker, and be less prone to making suboptimal decision after price has been stalling for 2 days in before breakout. In short, day-trading suited me better. In day-trading style I was targeting 2-3:1 RR. Playing with different targets, I came to realize that -0.27 on Fib Retracement was a good target as it offered a perfect blend of RR as well as capturing that quick swing. But, I also didn't like when price almost came to target and turned around to loss, so I came up with a 80% rule. If price climbs up to 80% of the way to the target and fails to keep going - I manually close for 80% of the move's profits. This was pretty good overall. However, after doing review for the last 100 trades I noticed a weird pattern. With my approach price often goes to 1:1. In 100% of times when price went to reach 1:1 it did the following: * 30% price went to full target. * 30% price either turned around SnD level, or reached 80% and turned around. * 40% price touches 1:1 and turns around into a moved stop, original stop, or manual exit for around 0. When I combined the average results of all these trades (and that's a pretty huge sample size) - I realized a new angle to my trading. What happened is that there is almost no difference in the long-term results if I were to simply target 1:1 fully and be done with a trade. This would give me way less time being in a trade, less teetering with it, even quicker in and outs, slightly better long-term profits. It's weird, but it seems that my personality and my trading is more suited toward HSR trading and not HRR trading. HSR = High Strike Rate. HRR = High Reward Risk Ratio. But my average risk is also going to be much smaller, because my early exits are quite on point overall. In the last 100 trades my early exit accuracy is around 80%. It's weirdly huge. So, there's that. Constant improvement, constant tweaking. For now I will be trading and targeting 1:1s only + early exits.
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Manipulation Pattern in BTC We all knowing that when the Price Squeeze in thin area , then we expect a strong Rally or Drop farther . Now we have this situation in very important lvl of both BTC & ETH . I think in good scenario smart money will do only Blue pattern for pumping BTC to next major resistance But in bad scenario ( that happen usually in market ! ) the red line forecast will going to happen PS : Sorry for Bad grammar , i will practice more next time :)) good luck
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Bitcoin - For Trading Not for InvestingWhen Bitcoin was trading at around 60,000 level in late 2021 and before that year, whenever friends, acquaintance and participants asked my opinion about investing into cryptocurrency, immediately I knew they may not know much about cryptocurrency. To clarify, I am not an expert in cryptocurrency, but I know its intrinsic value could not be calculated then and even today, therefore it is an instrument not for investing but for trading. Let me elaborate, as long as we cannot define its intrinsic value to any so-call an asset, it is not an asset, but an instrument for trading. When we get into trading, meaning, we have to acknowledge the getting in and out, out also represent to exit the market with either a profit or a loss, it is part of the deal in trading – we have to be quick when we make a wrong decision. However, if you position yourself as an investor in crypto, you will either always perceive it will break new high or hope that it will someday go back to its former glory. Throughout the whole tutorial, I will do a recap on how I have spotted this top here in November 2021. I have done this in another personal forum I have back then. I will go through that and it may seem like a hindsight view, but I will apply the same strategy to the current market using just trendline and divergence. Bitcoin Futures Minimum Tick: $5.00 = US$25 or $1.00 = US$5 Contract Value: 20,000 x US$5 = US$100,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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10 secrets to stay motivated in trading. Part 1... 1- Focus on the process: Trading is like a boxing match. Unless there is a knockout, 1 round cannot determine the outcome of the fight. In trading it's the same, you must avoid at all costs the margin call, which is the technical knockout of the market. It happens when your capital decreases so much that your broker, the referee on the markets, decides to stop the game. This is one of the worst scenarios that can happen to you in the business. And it doesn't bode well for your capital. To avoid this, make sure you're up to speed before you take on the market. Focus on the process, accept that you have to go through all the necessary steps to become a seasoned trader. This will ensure that you are always the favorite when you enter a position. 2- Set long term goals Just like in bodybuilding, it can be a long time before you can admire your transformation. And even once you've reached your goal, you still need to be able to maintain it... Think of trading as a bodybuilding exercise, refuse shortcuts that could lead to unsustainable results. Be strong in the face of difficulty and aware that ambitious goals often take a while to achieve. Carve out your success one victory at a time, but set long-term goals that will allow you to view each defeat as a warm-up. 3- Keep a cool head In this activity, inevitably, one day or another you will find yourself in trouble. The reasons can be numerous: absent-mindedness, flash crash, technical problem... It is in these moments that you must avoid being emotional. To do so, you must be ready to handle the situation, which necessarily implies that you have prepared yourself in advance. Otherwise, the emotional tsunami that will fall on you will probably not leave you any chance to save the situation. Study your psychological limits and then trade consistently to keep a cool head and stay in a position to recover from such a situation. 4- Remember why you started Trading is not the Mont Blanc, although... Just like in the mountains, when you start an ascent it is to reach the top. Of course it is possible to stop as soon as things start to get tough, but in that case, you can't expect to make it to the top. Because whatever happens, one thing is certain, long before the summit, things are bound to get complicated. So the real question to ask is not whether it will get difficult, but how do you plan to react when it does? And it's precisely at that moment that you need to remember why you decided to start in the first place. This could help you to recover enough energy and motivation not to miss the initial goal. 5 - Be well equipped It's not even worth considering staying motivated if you are poorly equipped. For example, an inadequate internet connection will probably ruin your day even before the market does. A screen that hurts your eyes may cause you to prefer watching TV to working hard on your charts. A faulty mouse, an uncomfortable chair, a noisy environment... These are all problems that will undermine your motivation at the first sign of trouble. To beat the market no choice! One of the very first steps is to make sure you are always well equipped, in order to preserve your chances to go through with your project.
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MOVING AVERAGE TRADING | ADVANCED LESSONHello traders 👋 Today im sharing my trading strategy with moving average. What Is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)? An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average, but it's better than MA(Only my opinion. It is one of the most important things in forex trade. Because this gives you the best direction of the trend. How to trade And Use moving average. 🧑‍🏫 When most traders use it moving average crossing. I don't think it's a good strategy. For me, when using it, looks at a trading setup. 1. Looking daily timeframe 👀 This is because you want to find the price action for a longer period and not just some light movement. 2. Draw ✏️ To draw a trend line ( if you don't know how to draw trendline watch my last lesson) 3. Add 50 EMA 📉 4. The Basics of Support and Resistance + key levels ✔️ the concept is applied in order to maximise the chances of winning trades. 5. Looking for entry + risk management 💰 Always wait for confirm example; trend line break + price making lower low + pullback + add indicators. In this lesson, we expect EURJPY to fall below 134.50. Let's see what happens in the future. 🤲 If you are enjoying the lesson, please hit the like show your support. 🤲
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Dietary Supplements For TradersLong sitting at the computer, constant stress, bad ecology in the cities, unbalanced nutrition all this is detrimental to the health of forex trader, as well as any intellectual worker. Today is not going to be a typical post. We're going to talk about supplements that help improve mental and physical vitality under emotional pressure from the market. I will share with you those remedies that I myself use. What are dietary supplements? Nutritional supplements are supplements, usually based on natural ingredients. They are not medicines, but act similarly to vitamins. There are universal nutritional supplements, and there are specialized ones for bones, brain, heart, etc. Consider dietary supplements not as something magical, but as a kind of bonus, "+1 to HP", if we put it in computer game terms. There are opponents of supplements, there are supporters. Personally, I have tried various supplements for many years, and below is a list of what I think are the best. Of course, it all depends on the individual, for example, I have problems with the stomach and cervical spine, so, let's say, joint supplements for the average person needs less than I do. Try to try everything on your body, diseases (if any) and preferences. My experience is just my experience, not the fact that what works for you is what works for me. Omega Fatty Acids Omega-3, omega-6, omega-7, and omega-9. These are all varieties of fatty acids found in foods such as fish, nuts, some fruits and vegetables. Omega's are healthy bones, immune system, breasts, cardiovascular system, intestines and pancreas as well as improve memory and brain function. I recommend unconditionally to all. I myself have been drinking for many years. Omega-7 is generally rare, and here it is in a complex, perfectly balanced, also containing astaxanthin - the most powerful antioxidant in the world. Cordyceps I use it when I need a lot of energy. When flights, busy days. This is a parasitic fungus that sucks the life juices out of insects that it encounters: grasshoppers, ants, etc. In China, cordyceps has been used medicinally for 5000 years. In addition to energy, it stimulates brain activity by improving blood circulation, strengthens the walls of blood vessels, as well as the immune system. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fakes, be careful. One rule of thumb - cordyceps can't be cheap, as very little of it is extracted. Ginseng Ginseng has long been known for its healing powers. Unlike cordyceps, it gives a deeper energy, not so pronounced, the effect is noticeable a little later. In addition to physical energy helps with mental fatigue. In dietary supplements is usually used artificially grown ginseng, as it is cheaper. Wild ginseng is considered more powerful, I can't recommend any particular supplement, so please try it. If you feel the effect, it means that it is suitable for you. Now I take this one. Ginkgo Biloba Ginkgo Biloba is the plant whose leaf extract is closest to those "NZT pills" from the famous movie " Limitless ". It nourishes the brain, improves memory, attention, mental performance, and slows the aging process of the brain. Result is not instant; miracles is not going to happen. Garlic. Garlic kills a lot of pathogens inside the body, a couple of times a year I take a course. What is interesting, everyone knows about the properties of garlic as an anti-cold and immune boosting agent, but it also helps to reduce cholesterol and improve male potency. Garlic is a dietary supplement in a concentrated form and in large quantities. This will not make your breath stink. Hyaluronic Acid Hyaluronic acid is a constituent of many tissues in our body. Hyaluronic acid is commonly advertised as an anti-wrinkle cosmetic, for younger looking skin, etc. But it is also excellent for joints, muscles and ligaments. Scientists are predicting that in the future, this acid will form the basis of cancer fighting agents. In this way, it is an excellent remedy for the mobility of the joints and has an aesthetic effect on the skin. Blueberries Although modern monitors don't strain our eyes as much, there's still nothing good for vision in the glowing screens of laptops, cell phones and tablets that we all often look at. And it doesn't hurt to take preventive care. Blueberries are very good for vision. And in combination with the substance Lutein, the effect is enhanced. I try to remember to take a course of blueberry extract with lutein once a year to prevent good vision. Calm You also need to drink a soothing magnesium-based mixture. It promotes better sleep and relieves stress, of which there is so much in a trader's job. I drink it at night. How to use supplements? The most important rule is not to overdo it. Make sure that you do not overdose on any components/vitamins. For example, if you drink something with vitamin E, you should not take a supplement at the same time, where vitamin E is also present, albeit as an auxiliary component. Also, watch your own well-being. What works for one person won't necessarily work for another. Conclusion Various supplements help, but they are not a panacea. If you have, God forbid, any diseases, be sure to see a doctor. Also, supplements work many times better when you combine them with physical activity. Yes, that's right: you have to get off the couch and go to the gym. Choose what you like: yoga, aerobics, tennis. It's your business, but physical activity has to be, without it there is no way.
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Pine Scripts

Bjorgum Double Tap█   OVERVIEW Double Tap is a pattern recognition script aimed at detecting Double Tops and Double Bottoms. Double Tap can be applied to the broker emulator to observe historical results, run as a trading bot for live trade alerts in real time with entry signals, take profit, and stop orders, or to simply detect patterns. █   CONCEPTS How Is A Pattern Defined? Doubles are technical formations that are both reversal patterns and breakout patterns. These formations typically have a distinctive “M” or a “W” shape with price action breaking beyond the neckline formed by the center of the pattern. They can be recognized when a ​pivot fails to break when tested for a second time and the retracement that follows breaks beyond the key level opposite. This can trap entrants that were playing in the direction of the prior trend. Entries are made on the breakout with a target projected beyond the neckline equal to the height of the pattern. Pattern Recognition Patterns are recognized through the use of ​zig-zag; a method of filtering price action by connecting swing highs and lows in an alternating fashion to establish trend, ​support and resistance, or derive shapes from price action. The script looks for the highest or lowest point in a given number of bars and updates a list with the values as they form. If the levels are exceeded, the values are updated. If the direction changes and a new significant point is made, a new point is added to the list and the process starts again. Meanwhile, we scan the list of values looking for the distinctive shape to form as previously described. █   STRATEGY RESULTS Back Testing Historical back testing is the most common method to test a strategy due in part to the general ease of gathering quick results. The underlying theory is that any strategy that worked well in the past is likely to work well in the future, and conversely, any strategy that performed poorly in the past is likely to perform poorly in the future. It is easy to poke holes in this theory, however, as for one to accept it as gospel, one would have to assume that future results will match what has come to pass. The randomness of markets may see to it otherwise, so it is important to scrutinize results. Some commonly used methods are to compare to other markets or benchmarks, perform statistical analysis on the results over many iterations and on differing datasets, walk-forward testing, out-of-sample analysis, or a variety of other techniques. There are many ways to interpret the results, so it is important to do research and gain knowledge in the field prior to taking meaningful conclusions from them. 👉  In short, it would be naive to place trust in one good backtest and expect positive results to continue. For this reason, results have been omitted from this publication. Repainting Repainting is simply the difference in behaviour of a strategy in real time vs the results calculated on the historical dataset. The strategy, by default, will wait for confirmed signals and is thus designed to not repaint. Waiting for bar close for entires aligns results in the real time data feed to those calculated on historical bars, which contain far less data. By doing this we align the behaviour of the strategy on the 2 data types, which brings significance to the calculated results. To override this behaviour and introduce repainting one can select "Recalculate on every tick" from the properties tab. It is important to note that by doing this alerts may not align with results seen in the strategy tester when the chart is reloaded, and thus to do so is to forgo backtesting and restricts a strategy to forward testing only. 👉  It is possible to use this script as an indicator as opposed to a full strategy by disabling "Use Strategy" in the "Inputs" tab. Basic alerts for detection will be sent when patterns are detected as opposed to complex order syntax. For alerts mid-bar enable "Recalculate on every tick" , and for confirmed signals ensure it is disabled. █   EXIT ORDERS Limit and Stop Orders By default, the strategy will place a stop loss at the invalidation point of the pattern. This point is beyond the pattern high in the case of Double Tops, or beneath the pattern low in the case of Double Bottoms. The target or take profit point is an equal-legs measurement, or 100% of the pattern height in the direction of the pattern bias. Both the stop and the limit level can be adjusted from the user menu as a percentage of the pattern height. Trailing Stops Optional from the menu is the implementation of an ATR based trailing stop. The trailing stop is designed to begin when the target projection is reached. From there, the script looks back a user-defined number of bars for the highest or lowest point +/- the ATR value. For tighter stops the user can look back a lesser number of bars, or decrease the ATR multiple. When using either Alertatron or Trading Connector, each change in the trail value will trigger an alert to update the stop order on the exchange to reflect the new trail price. This reduces latency and slippage that can occur when relying on alerts only as real exchange orders fill faster and remain in place in the event of a disruption in communication between your strategy and the exchange, which ensures a higher level of safety. 👉  It is important to note that in the case the trailing stop is enabled, limit orders are excluded from the exit criteria. Rather, the point in time that the limit value is exceeded is the point that the trail begins. As such, this method will exit by stop loss only. █   ALERTS Five Built-in 3rd Party Destinations The following are five options for delivering alerts from Double Tap to live trade execution via third party ​API solutions or chat bots to share your trades on social media. These destinations can be selected from the input menu and alert syntax will automatically configure in alerts appropriately to manage trades. Custom JSON JSON, or JavaScript Object Notation, is a readable format for structuring data. It is used primarily to transmit data between a server and a web application. In regards to this script, this may be a custom intermediary web application designed to catch alerts and interface with an exchange ​API. The JSON message is a trade map for an application to read equipped with where its been, where its going, targets, stops, quantity; a full diagnostic of the current state and its previous state. A web application could be configured to follow the messages sent in this format and conduct trades in sync with alerts running on the TV server. Below is an example of a rendered JSON alert: { "passphrase": "1234", "time": "2022-05-01T17:50:05Z", "ticker": "ETHUSDTPERP", "plot": { "stop_price": 2600.15, "limit_price": 3100.45 }, "strategy": { "position_size": 0.1, "order_action": "buy", "market_position": "long", "market_position_size": 0, "prev_market_position": "flat", "prev_market_position_size": 0 } } Trading Connector Trading Connector is a third party fully autonomous Chrome extension designed to catch alert webhooks from TradingView and interface with MT4/MT5 to execute live trades from your machine. Alerts to Trading Connector are simple; just select the destination from the input drop down menu, set your ticker in the "TC Ticker" box in the "Alert Strings" section and enter your URL in the alert window when configuring your alert. Alertatron Alertatron is an automated algo platform for cryptocurrency trading that is designed to automate your trading strategies. Although the platform is currently restricted to crypto, it offers a versatile interface with high flexibility syntax for complex market orders and conditions. To direct alerts to Alertatron, select the platform from the 3rd party drop down, configure your ​API key in the ”Alertatron Key” box and add your URL in the alert message box when making alerts. 3 Commas 3 Commas is an easy and quick to use click-and-go third party crypto ​API solution. Alerts are simple without overly complex syntax. Messages are simply pasted into alerts and executed as alerts are triggered. There are 4 boxes at the bottom of the "Inputs" tab where the appropriate messages to be placed. These messages can be copied from 3 Commas after the bots are set up and pasted directly into the settings menu. Remember to select 3 Commas as a destination from the third party drop down and place the appropriate URL in the alert message window. Discord Some may wish to share their trades with their friends in a Discord chat via webhook chat bot. Messages are configured to notify of the pattern type with targets and stop values. A bot can be configured through the integration menu in a Discord chat to which you have appropriate access. Select Discord from the 3rd party drop down menu and place your chat bot URL in the alert message window when configuring alerts. 👉  For further information regarding alert setup, refer to the platform specific instructions given by the chosen third party provider. █   IMPORTANT NOTES Setting Alerts For alert messages to be properly delivered on order fills it is necessary to place the following placeholder in the alert message box when creating an alert. {{strategy.order.alert_message}} This placeholder will auto-populate the alert message with the appropriate syntax that is designated for the 3rd party selected in the user menu. Order Sizing and Commissions The values that are sent in alert messages are populated from live metrics calculated by the strategy. This means that the actual values in the "Properties" tab are used and must be set by the user. The initial capital, order size, commission, etc. are all used in the calculations, so it is important to set these prior to executing live trades. Be sure to set the commission to the values used by the exchange as well. 👉  It is important to understand that the calculations on the account size take place from the beginning of the price history of the strategy. This means that if historical results have inflated or depleted the account size from the beginning of trade history until now, the values sent in alerts will reflect the calculated size based on the inputs in the "Properties" tab. To start fresh, the user must set the date in the "Inputs" tab to the current date as to remove trades from the trade history. Failure to follow this instruction can result in an unexpected order size being sent in the alert. █   FOR PINECODERS  • With the recent introduction of matrices in Pine, the script utilizes a matrix to track ​pivot points with the bars they occurred on, while tracking if that ​pivot has been traded against to prevent duplicate detections after a trade is exited.  • Alert messages are populated with placeholders ; capability that previously was only possible in alertcondition() , but has recently been extended to `strategy.*()` functions for use in the `alert_message` argument. This allows delivery of live trade values to populate in strategy alert messages.  • New arguments have been added to strategy.exit() , which allow differentiated messages to be sent based on whether the exit occurred at the stop or the limit. The new arguments used in this script are `alert_profit` and `alert_loss` to send messages to Discord
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ strategy
37
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast [Loxx]Due to popular demand, I'm pusblishing Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast.. As stated in it's twin indicator, this one is also multi-harmonic (or multi-tone) trigonometric model of a price series xi, i=1..n, is given by: xi = m + Sum( a*Cos(w*i) + b*Sin(w*i), h=1..H ) Where: xi - past price at i-th bar, total n past prices; m - bias; a and b - scaling coefficients of harmonics; w - frequency of a harmonic ; h - harmonic number; H - total number of fitted harmonics. Fitting this model means finding m, a, b, and w that make the modeled values to be close to real values. Finding the harmonic frequencies w is the most difficult part of fitting a trigonometric model. In the case of a Fourier series, these frequencies are set at 2*pi*h/n. But, the Fourier series extrapolation means simply repeating the n past prices into the future. This indicator uses the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm to find the harmonic frequencies. It fits harmonics of the trigonometric series one by one until the specified total number of harmonics H is reached. After fitting a new harmonic , the coded algorithm computes the residue between the updated model and the real values and fits a new harmonic to the residue. see here: A Fast Efficient Technique for the Estimation of Frequency , B. G. Quinn and J. M. Fernandes, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3 (Sep., 1991), pp . 489-497 (9 pages) Published By: Oxford University Press The indicator has the following input parameters: src - input source npast - number of past bars, to which trigonometric series is fitted; Nfut - number of predicted future bars; nharm - total number of harmonics in model; frqtol - tolerance of frequency calculations. The indicator plots two curves: the green/red curve indicates modeled past values and the yellow/fuchsia curve indicates the modeled future values. The purpose of this indicator is to showcase the Fourier Extrapolator method to be used in future indicators.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
30
VisibleChart█   OVERVIEW This library is a Pine programmer’s tool containing functions that return values calculated from the range of visible bars on the chart. This is now possible in Pine Script™ thanks to the recently-released chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time built-ins, which return the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost bars on the chart. These values update as traders scroll or zoom their charts, which gives way to a class of indicators that can dynamically recalculate and draw visuals on visible bars only, as users scroll or zoom their charts. We hope this library's functions help you make the most of the world of possibilities these new built-ins provide for Pine scripts. For an example of a script using this library, have a look at the Chart ​VWAP indicator. █   CONCEPTS Chart properties The new chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time variables return the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost bars on the chart. They are only two of many new built-ins in the `chart.*` namespace. See this blog post for more information, or look up them up by typing "chart." in the Pine Script™ Reference Manual . Dynamic recalculation of scripts on visible bars Any script using chart.left_visible_bar_time or chart.right_visible_bar_time acquires a unique property, which triggers its recalculation when traders scroll or zoom their charts in such a way that the range of visible bars on the chart changes. This library's functions use the two recent built-ins to derive various values from the range of visible bars. Designing your scripts for dynamic recalculation For the library's functions to work correctly, they must be called on every bar. For reliable results, assign their results to global variables and then use the variables locally where needed — not the raw function calls. Some functions like `barIsVisible()` or `open()` will return a value starting on the leftmost visible bar. Others such as `high()` or `low()` will also return a value starting on the leftmost visible bar, but their correct value can only be known on the rightmost visible bar, after all visible bars have been analyzed by the script. You can plot values as the script executes on visible bars, but efficient code will, when possible, create resource-intensive labels, lines or tables only once in the global ​scope using var , and then use the setter functions to modify their properties on the last bar only. The example code included in this library uses this method. Keep in mind that when your script uses chart.left_visible_bar_time or chart.right_visible_bar_time , your script will recalculate on all bars each time the user scrolls or zooms their chart. To provide script users with the best experience you should strive to keep calculations to a minimum and use efficient code so that traders are not always waiting for your script to recalculate every time they scroll or zoom their chart. Another aspect to consider is the fact that the rightmost visible bar will not always be the last bar in the dataset. When script users scroll back in time, a large portion of the time series the script calculates on may be situated after the rightmost visible bar. We can never assume the rightmost visible bar is also the last bar of the time series. Use `barIsVisible()` to restrict calculations to visible bars, but also consider that your script can continue to execute past them. █   FUNCTIONS The library contains the following functions: barIsVisible()   Condition to determine if a given bar is within the users visible time range.   Returns: (bool) True if the the calling bar is between the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` and the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. high()   Determines the value of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (float) The maximum high value of visible chart bars. highBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `bar_index` of the `high()`. highBarTime()   Determines the bar time of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `time` of the `high()`. low()   Determines the value of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (float) The minimum low value of visible chart bars. lowBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `bar_index` of the `low()`. lowBarTime()   Determines the bar time of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `time` of the `low()`. open()   Determines the value of the opening price in the visible chart time range.   Returns: (float) The `open` of the leftmost visible chart bar. close()   Determines the value of the closing price in the visible chart time range.   Returns: (float) The `close` of the rightmost visible chart bar. leftBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the leftmost visible chart bar.   Returns: (int) A `bar_index`. rightBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the rightmost visible chart bar.   Returns: (int) A `bar_index` bars()   Determines the number of visible chart bars.   Returns: (int) The number of bars. volume()   Determines the sum of volume of all visible chart bars.   Returns: (float) The cumulative sum of volume. ohlcv()   Determines the open, high, low, close, and volume sum of the visible bar time range.   Returns: ( ) A tuple of the OHLCV values for the visible chart bars. Example: open is chart left, high is the highest visible high, etc. chartYPct(​pct)   Determines a price level as a percentage of the visible bar price range, which depends on the chart's top/bottom margins in "Settings/Appearance".   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible price range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A price level equal to the `pct` of the price range between the high and low of visible chart bars. Example: 50 is halfway between the visible high and low. chartXTimePct(​pct)   Determines a time as a percentage of the visible bar time range.   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible time range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A time in UNIX format equal to the `pct` of the time range from the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` to the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. Example: 50 is halfway from the leftmost visible bar to the rightmost. chartXIndexPct(​pct)   Determines a `bar_index` as a percentage of the visible bar time range.   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible time range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A time in UNIX format equal to the `pct` of the time range from the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` to the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. Example: 50 is halfway from the leftmost visible bar to the rightmost. whenVisible(​src, whenCond, length)   Creates an array containing the `length` last `src` values where `whenCond` is true for visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values to be included.      whenCond : (series bool) The condition determining which values are included. Optional. The default is `true`.      length : (simple int) The number of last values to return. Optional. The default is all values.   Returns: (float ) The array ID of the accumulated `src` values. avg(​src)   Gathers values of the source over visible chart bars and averages them.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values to be averaged. Optional. Default is `close`.   Returns: (float) A cumulative average of values for the visible time range. median(​src)   Calculates the median of a source over visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values. Optional. Default is `close`.   Returns: (float) The median of the `src` for the visible time range. vVwap(​src)   Calculates a volume-weighted average for visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) Source used for the ​VWAP calculation. Optional. Default is `hlc3`.   Returns: (float) The ​VWAP for the visible time range.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ library
25
Time█   OVERVIEW This library is a Pine Script™ programmer’s tool containing a variety of time related functions to calculate or measure time, or format time into string variables. █   CONCEPTS `formattedTime()`, `formattedDate()` and `formattedDay()` Pine Script™, like many other programming languages, uses timestamps in UNIX format, expressed as the number of milliseconds elapsed since 00:00:00 UTC, 1 January 1970. These three functions convert a UNIX timestamp to a formatted string for human consumption. These are examples of ways you can call the functions, and the ensuing results: CODE RESULT formattedTime(timenow) >>> "00:40:35" formattedTime(timenow, "short") >>> "12:40 AM" formattedTime(timenow, "full") >>> "12:40:35 AM ​UTC​" formattedTime(1000 * 60 * 60 * 3.5, "HH:mm") >>> "03:30" formattedDate(timenow, "short") >>> "4/30/22" formattedDate(timenow, "medium") >>> ​"Apr​ 30, 2022" formattedDate(timenow, "full") >>> "Saturday, April 30, 2022" formattedDay(timenow, "E") >>> "Sat" formattedDay(timenow, "dd.MM.yy") >>> "30.04.22" formattedDay(timenow, "yyyy.MM.dd G 'at' hh:mm:ss z") >>> "2022.04.30 AD at 12:40:35 UTC" These functions use str.format() and some of the special formatting codes it allows for. Pine Script™ documentation does not yet contain complete specifications on these codes, but in the meantime you can find some information in the The Java™ Tutorials and in Java documentation of its MessageFormat class . Note that str.format() implements only a subset of the MessageFormat features in Java. `secondsSince()` The introduction of varip variables in Pine Script™ has made it possible to track the time for which a condition is true when a script is executing on a realtime bar. One obvious use case that comes to mind is to enable trades to exit only when the exit condition has been true for a period of time, whether that period is shorter that the chart's timeframe, or spans across multiple realtime bars. For more information on this function and varip please see our Using `varip` variables publication. `timeFrom( )` When plotting lines , boxes , and labels one often needs to calculate an offset for past or future end points relative to the time a condition or point occurs in history. Using xloc.bar_index is often the easiest solution, but some situations require the use of xloc.bar_time . We introduce `timeFrom()` to assist in calculating time-based offsets. The function calculates a timestamp using a negative (into the past) or positive (into the future) offset from the current bar's starting or closing time, or from the current time of day. The offset can be expressed in units of chart timeframe, or in seconds, minutes, hours, days, months or years. This function was ported from our Time Offset Calculation Framework . `formattedNoOfPeriods()` and `secondsToTfString()` Our final two offerings aim to confront two remaining issues: How much time is represented in a given timestamp? How can I produce a "simple string" timeframe usable with request.security() from a timeframe expressed in seconds? `formattedNoOfPeriods()` converts a time value in ​ms to a quantity of time units. This is useful for calculating a difference in time between 2 points and converting to a desired number of units of time. If no unit is supplied, the function automatically chooses a unit based on a predetermined time step. `secondsToTfString()` converts an input time in seconds to a target timeframe string in timeframe.period string format. This is useful for implementing stepped timeframes relative to the chart time, or calculating multiples of a given chart timeframe. Results from this function are in simple form, which means they are useable as `timeframe` arguments in functions like request.security() . █   NOTES Although the example code is commented in detail, the size of the library justifies some further explanation as many concepts are demonstrated. Key points are as follows:  • ​Pivot points are used to draw lines from. `timeFrom( )` calculates the length of the lines in the specified unit of time.   By default the script uses 20 units of the charts timeframe. Example: a 1hr chart has arrows 20 hours in length.  • At the point of the arrows `formattedNoOfPeriods()` calculates the line length in the specified unit of time from the input menu.   If “Use Input Time” is disabled, a unit of time is automatically assigned.  • At each ​pivot point a label with a formatted date or time is placed with one of the three formatting helper functions to display the time or date the ​pivot occurred.  • A label on the last bar showcases `secondsSince()` . The label goes through three stages of detection for a timed alert.   If the difference between the high and the open in ticks exceeds the input value, a timer starts and will turn the label red once the input time is exceeded to simulate a time-delayed alert.  • In the bottom right of the screen `secondsToTfString()` posts the chart timeframe in a table. This can be multiplied from the input menu. █   FUNCTIONS formattedTime(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted time string.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the time. Optional. The default value is "HH:mm:ss".   Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted time. formattedDate(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted date string.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the date. Optional. The default value is "yyyy-MM-dd".   Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted date. formattedDay(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to the name of the day of the week.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the day of the week. Optional. The default value is "EEEE" (complete day name).   Returns: (string) A string containing the day of the week. secondsSince(cond, resetCond)   The duration in milliseconds that a condition has been true.   Parameters:      cond : (series bool) Condition to time.      resetCond : (series bool) When `true`, the duration resets.   Returns: The duration in seconds for which `cond` is continuously true. timeFrom(from, qty, units)   Calculates a +/- time offset in variable units from the current bar's time or from the current time.   Parameters:      from : (series string) Starting time from where the offset is calculated: "bar" to start from the bar's starting time, "close" to start from the bar's closing time, "now" to start from the current time.      qty : (series int) The +/- qty of units of offset required. A "series float" can be used but it will be cast to a "series int".      units : (series string) String containing one of the seven allowed time units: "chart" (chart's timeframe), "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "months", "years".   Returns: (int) The resultant time offset `from` the `qty` of time in the specified `units`. formattedNoOfPeriods(​ms, unit)   Converts a time value in ​ms to a quantity of time units.   Parameters:      ms : (series int) Value of time to be formatted.      unit : (series string) The target unit of time measurement. Options are "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "weeks", "months". If not used one will be automatically assigned.   Returns: (string) A formatted string from the number of `ms` in the specified `unit` of time measurement secondsToTfString(tfInSeconds, mult)   Convert an input time in seconds to target string TF in `timeframe.period` string format.   Parameters:      tfInSeconds : (simple int) a timeframe in seconds to convert to a string.      mult : (simple float) Multiple of `tfInSeconds` to be calculated. Optional. 1 (no multiplier) is default.   Returns: (string) The `tfInSeconds` in `timeframe.period` format usable with `request.security()`.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ library
25
Relative Bandwidth FilterThis is a very simple script which can be used as measure to define your trading zones based on volatility. Concept This script tries to identify the area of low and high volatility based on comparison between Bandwidth of higher length and ATR of lower length. Relative Bandwidth = Bandwidth / ATR Bandwidth can be based on either Bollinger Band, Keltner Channel or Donchian Channel. Length of the bandwidth need to be ideally higher. ATR is calculated using built in ATR method and ATR length need to be ideally lower than that used for calculating Bandwidth. Once we got Relative Bandwidth, the next step is to apply Bollinger Band on this to measure how relatively high/low this value is. Overall - If relative bandwidth is higher, then volatility is comparatively low. If relative bandwidth is lower, then volatility is comparatively high. Usage This can be used with your own strategy to filter out your non-trading zones based on volatility. Script plots a variable called "Signal" - which is not shown on chart pane. But, it is available in the data window. This can be used in another script as external input and apply logic. Signal values can be 1 : Allow only Long -1 : Allow only short 0 : Do not allow any trades 2 : Allow both Long and Short
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
18
Breakout Probability (Expo)█ Overview Breakout Probability is a valuable indicator that calculates the probability of a new high or low and displays it as a level with its percentage. The probability of a new high and low is backtested, and the results are shown in a table— a simple way to understand the next candle's likelihood of a new high or low. In addition, the indicator displays an additional four levels above and under the candle with the probability of hitting these levels. The indicator helps traders to understand the likelihood of the next candle's direction, which can be used to set your trading bias. █ Calculations The algorithm calculates all the green and red candles separately depending on whether the previous candle was red or green and assigns scores if one or more lines were reached. The algorithm then calculates how many candles reached those levels in history and displays it as a percentage value on each line. █ Example In this example, the previous candlestick was green; we can see that a new high has been hit 72.82% of the time and the low only 28.29%. In this case, a new high was made. █ Settings Percentage Step The space between the levels can be adjusted with a percentage step. 1% means that each level is located 1% above/under the previous one. Disable 0.00% values If a level got a 0% likelihood of being hit, the level is not displayed as default. Enable the option if you want to see all levels regardless of their values. Number of Lines Set the number of levels you want to display. Show Statistic Panel Enable this option if you want to display the backtest statistics for that a new high or low is made. (Only if the first levels have been reached or not) █ Any Alert function call An alert is sent on candle open, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options: Ticker ID Bias Probability percentage The first level high and low price █ How to use This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a breakout and the likelihood that set levels are hit. The indicator can be used for setting a stop loss based on where the price is most likely not to reach. The indicator can help traders to set their bias based on probability. For example, look at the daily or a higher timeframe to get your trading bias, then go to a lower timeframe and look for setups in that direction. ----------------- Disclaimer The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
62
Point of Control V2 The genesis of this project was to create a POC library that would be available to deliver volume profile information via pine to other scripts of indicators and strategies. This is a republish of an invite only script to open access This is the indicator version of the library function. A few points of significance: - Allows the choice of reset of the study period, day/week or bars. This is simple enough to expand to other conditions - Bar count resets starting from the beginning of the data set (bar index =0) vs bars back from the end of the data set - A 'period' in this context is the time between resets - the start of the POC (eg. start of Day or Week) until it resets (for example at the beginning of a next day or week) - Automates the determination of the increment level rather than the user specifying ticks or price brackets - Does not allow for setting the # of rows and then calculating the implied price increment levels - When a period is complete it is often useful to look back at the POCs of historical periods, or extend them forward. - This script will find the historical POCs around the current price and display them rather than extend all the historical POC lines to the right - This script also looks across all the period POCs and identifies the master POC or what I call the Grand POC, and also the next 3 runner up POCs This indicator is also available as a library. BINANCE:BTCUSDT NSE:NIFTY OANDA:XAUUSD NASDAQ:AAPL TVC:USOIL
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
8
Andean OscillatorThe following script is an original creation originally posted on the blog section of the broker Alpaca. The proposed indicator aims to measure the degree of variations of individual up-trends and down-trends in the price, thus allowing to highlight the direction and amplitude of a current trend. Settings Length : Determines the significance of the trends degree of variations measured by the indicator. Signal Length : Moving average period of the signal line. Usage The Andean Oscillator can return multiple information to the user, with its core interpretation revolving around the bull and bear components. A rising bull component (in green) indicates the presence of bullish price variations while a rising bear component (in red) indicates the presence of bearish price variations. When the bull component is over the bear component market is up-trending, and the user can expect new higher highs. When the bear component is over the bull component market is down-trending, and the user can expect new lower lows. The signal line (in orange) allows a more developed interpretation of the indicator and can be used in several ways. It is possible to use it to filter out potential false signals given by the crosses between the bullish and bearish components. As such the user might want to enter a position once the bullish or bearish component crosses over the signal line instead. Details Measuring the degree of variations of trends in the price by their direction (up-trend/down-trend) can be done in several way. The approach taken by the proposed indicator makes use of exponential envelopes and the naive computation of standard deviation. First, exponential envelopes are obtained from both the regular prices and squared prices, thus giving two upper extremities, and two lower extremities. The bullish component is obtained by first subtracting the upper extremity of the squared prices with the squared upper extremity of regular prices, the square root is then applied to this result. The bearish component is obtained in the same way, but makes use of the lower extremities of the exponential envelopes.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
28
Auto Trendline Indicator (based on fractals)A tool that automatically draws out trend lines by connecting the most recent fractals. Description: The process of manual drawing out trend lines is highly subjective. Many times, we don’t trade what we see, but what we “want to see”. As a result, we draw lines pointing to the direction that we wishfully want price to move towards. While there are no right/wrong ways to draw trend lines, there are, however, systematic/unsystematic ways to draw trend lines. This tool will systematically draw out trend lines based on fractals. Additional feature: This tool will also plot out symbols (default symbol “X”) to signify points of crossings. This can be useful for traders considering to use trend lines as part of their trading strategies. Here is an interesting observation on the price actions of NASDAQ futures on a 5 second chart during regular trading hours on July 14, 2022. It’s a phenomenon. People like to see straight lines connecting HL/LH, etc., so it's possible for the market as a whole to psychologically react to these lines. However, it is important to note that is is impossible to predict the direction of price. In the case above, price could have tanked below auto-drawn trend line. Fractal based trend lines should only be taken as references and regarded as price levels. No studies have ever proven that the slope of trend lines can indicate price's future direction. More about fractals: To understand more about fractals: www.investopedia.com www.tradingview.com Contrary to what it sounds like, fractal in "technical analysis" does not refer to the recursive self-repeating patterns that appear in nature, such as the mesmerizing patterns found in snowflakes. The Fractal Markets Hypothesis claims that market prices exhibit fractal properties over time. Assuming this assertion to be true, then fractals can be used a tool to represent the chaotic movements of price is a simplified manner. The purpose of this exercise is to take a tool that is readily available (ie. in this case, TradingView’s built-in fractals tool), and to create a newer tool based on it. Parameters: Fractal period (denoted as ‘n’ in code): It is the number of bars bounding a high/low point that must be lower/higher than it, respectively, in order for fractal to be considered valid. Period ‘n’ can be adjusted in this tool. Traditionally, chartists pick the value of 5. The longer it is, the less noise seen on the chart, and the pivot point may also be exhibited in higher timeframes. The drawback is that it will increase the period of lag, and it will take more bars to confirm the printed fractal. Others: Intuitive parameters such as whether to draw historical trend lines, what color to use, which way to extend the lines, and whether or not to show points of crossings.
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Pine Script™ indicator
27

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