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Fibonacci

Cypher Pattern - Good example #1DISCLAIMER - Your money is not in danger but guaranteed to disappear if you follow my trades. These ideas and trades are mostly for my personal use as a journal, but I try to provide as much value as possible to the community Cypher patterns supposedly have 80% completion ratio. This one worked flawlessly X - recent bottom A - recent top B - must touch 0.382 fib retracement and close BEFORE 0.618 of X-A. We have 0.463 - GOOD C - must touch 1.272 fib extension and close BEFORE 1.414 of X-A. We have 1.265 - SORT OF. If you are really pedantic with it, you may choose to ignore this one. In my book, it counts. D - nosedive required after C. Buy Entry - 0.786 retracement of X-C The price bounced exactly on the 0.768 retracement level and easily hit the first target, which is 0.382 fib extension. It BARELY missed the 0.618 level depending on how pedantic you are with the charting tools. In fact it hit it but much later.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by BeCulda
Cypher Pattern - Bad Example #1DISCLAIMER - Your money is not in danger but guaranteed to disappear if you follow my trades. These ideas and trades are mostly for my personal use as a journal, but I try to provide as much value as possible to the community Cypher patterns supposedly have 80% completion ratio. This one failed X - recent bottom A - recent top B - must touch 0.382 fib retracement and close BEFORE 0.618 of X-A. We have 0.463 - GOOD C - must touch 1.272 fib extension and close BEFORE 1.414 of X-A. We have 1.367 - GOOD D - nosedive required after C. Buy Entry - 0.786 retracement of X-C We can see the price bounced in that area (the wick being much lower and touching X level. The pattern was close to being correct however the bears were too strong. If you were lucky - you could get a quick scalp. Do Cyphers only work in sideways markets? Not in Bear/Bull markets? I'll be following this up with some good Cyphers
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by BeCulda
Quick notes about Inverted Head and ShouldersHello dear friends, this is more of a study than a chart. Here is what i did: * I sampled 16 IHS that showed over the past year and were visible on the 4hr chart. * I took in consideration sloppy patterns but ignored the ones that didn't complete or patterns that were too small or too big to discern on the 4hr. * targets are calculated roughly based on the closest fib as result, some targets have fallen slightly above or below that number. * By target i mean the peak price that was reached after pattern completion and within the timeframe equal to the time length of the pattern itself, and before reached a lower point than the low tip of the right shoulder * The outcome post pattern defines what happens after that pattern has reached its target within the calculated timeframe. Lower means the price dropped below the right shoulder lowest point, higher means the price continued climbing higher before any drop * The way i calculate IHS targets might be a bit unusual, but it works well for me. I calculate the length of the head from its lowest point to the meeting point with the right shoulder. Target calculations are a fib percent of that height. * Mind you, this is a quick study, nothing bulletproof or scientifically sound. And here are my key findings: 1. Out of 16, 3 failed, 7 reached 100% or above 2. the average success score is a retrace of 67% of the head size within the time length equal to the time length it took the pattern to form 3. 50% of the time, the price dropped lower than the pattern right shoulder or more after reach the pattern target Details: / a. 50% / lower b. 61.8% / higher c. 100% / higher d. 23.6% / lower e. 100% / higher f. 100% / higher g. 0% / lower e. 0% / lower f. 23.6% / higher g. 100% / lower h. 78.6% / higher i. 161% / lower j. 23.6% / higher k. 161% / lower l. 0%/ lower m. 100% / higher Again please take these findings with a grain of salt, this is by no mean super accurate and can be prone to error. But as a broad overview, hope you'll find this insightful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by gmgame
24
MUE-BTC on 1D - Review how price moves. Mixed signalsReview to see how trade plays out: Bullish: - Kumo Edge to Edge - Previous TK crossover however not as strong as it was below the cloud. - Kumo cloud is flat...price tends to be attracted to this. Bearish - Future kumo cloud is bullish - Potential double top formation - Similar pattern back in July when it did drop down before further gains - Low volume Buy: 0.00002443 Target: 0.00003160 (Sell 75% and leave rest for Long) SL: 0.00001986 (below the previous support at psychological 2000 level) RRR: 2.0
MEducation
by HackneyCrypto
Invest in yourself before invest your moneyIs buy & hold a strategy for penny stocks? Some says yes, some says no. The answer really depends how skillful the investors are. In this penny stock example, buy and hold is definitely a poor choice. A 30% gain in 171 days VS a 255% gain in 80 days. I pointed out many alert positions. Please move your cursor to the blue spots. These alerts tell you to think about STOP LOSS to protect your PROFIT. You may have to develop some technical analysis skills like below: Left chart Understand candlesticks pattern Spot moving averages crossovers Spot MACD crossover Apply Fibonacci Retracement Draw one or more trend line(s) Right chart Understand candlesticks pattern Check S/R levels Spot Tenkan-sen & Kijun-sen crossovers Check Chikou-span position Check price is under cloud The next step is to develop your mindset: According to a Stanford Research Institute report, 87.5% of our success in life comes from our attitude, with only 12.5% coming from skill. If there were only 50 technical analysis methods in the world, then you learnt only 10 of them. You got only 2.5%, a tiny portion of your success. You attitude then will be a massive action that move you forward. Do you know the power of beliefs? There are many people giving up trading because they cannot handle their negative emotions. I knew you're thinking fear & greed, but you may probably forget some emotions holding you back such as distress, disappointment and discouragement. The more bad news your heard from TV, magazines, and forums, your mind is filled with a lot of negative comments. Why not you go to hang around with positive thinking traders, fully technical analysts in some trading seminars face to face. They will encourage you and sometimes empower you, much better than sharing with your own friends. You must find the way to improve yourself. You must dump the past trading experience in order to absorb professional advice. Do you have the best place to do your chart analysis? I was telling some of my students “Can you not doing your analysis on a dining table; not analyzing & watching TV at the same time; not Facebook messenging while you are doing day-trades?” You need a FOCUS on what you are trading. Some says trading bitcoins can generate a lot of money, then you jump from your boat into their boat with no understandings their structure and foundation. If you lose, then it is your responsible, not others. At last I encourage all of the beginners that we are all riding the waves in the many markets (Forex, shares, crypto, indices, futures, options, etc). Therefore, you are not alone. Do not underestimate the negative emotions sometimes engulf someone's lives. As you are not alone, you are in this tradingview family !! When you make money, share it. Share how you make it win (not by gambling) When you lose money, share it, too. Share how to make it lose (no excuses). Be a responsible generous trader you are, find your peak performance, equip your skills to unleash your momentum to success. The PAST does not equal the FUTURE unless you live there. Thank you for reading. All the best
ASX:AMDEducation
by SoloTraderAU
2
Learning how USD corrolates with non-USD currencies. EURCADMy CURRENT definition of RISK. RISK ON USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down. or RISK OFF USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up. Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means EURUSD is a buy mid-term. USDCAD is a sell mid-term. In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on. So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come. Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY. If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk! and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
USD/JPY 1H ANALYSIS (Bearish trend) price has been in bearish run making lower highs, and lower lows in form of pullbacks. seeing price now making a retracement can give us an opportunity to short this market once identifying a trend continuation off our fibonnacci levels and take profit at the lows where buying demand is identified, leaving stop loss right above previous structure high and manage to be apart of the trend. if by any means the price forms anything out side your plans get out. -self
Education
by neat_trader
For next time: how to spot the reversal, making money as a bear.Fib extensions. Draw a high from the previous high to the bottom of it's real correction (4h retraces to the 20MA, in BTCUSD's case, work.) Now, extend to the current peak. Is it failing to retest the 0.236? Get out, prepare a to buy at the 0.618 if it holds. 0.618 holds? buy but prepare to sell at 0.382. 0.618 fails? try at 1.0 Buy at 1.0 but prepare to sell at 0.618. 0.618 is now resistance? Congratulations, you have a bearish reversal. Feel free to keep playing this game of buying and selling at fib levels and moving averages: if it will drop to 1.618, sell again at 1. Drop to 2.618, sell at 2.0, drop to 3.618, sell at .. well, 2.0 again if it will reach it. otherwise 2.618 If there's signs of a reversal, you can draw a new fib retracement from the top to the newly minted bottom and repeat the same game up the stairs What i'm trying to say is.. Bitcoin isn't done dropping, but that doenst mean there arent any opportunities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by robertjulius
Elliott Wave: Week of 11/20/17 - Unhappy Thanksgiving?The odds are lining up against the bulls. They may see a holiday cheer with a kiss of 2600 if lucky. However, the pullback from 2597 is incomplete and Bears are preparing for their feast. Continuing last week's issue the pullback is underway for an eventual total of 2-3% from the 2597 peak. Elliott wave count, a Fibonacci level of 1 from the the 2/2016 low, a head and shoulder technical analysis pattern and violation of a lower channel line are all bearish signs for the near term. There is even a case for a harmonic butterfly pattern I've placed here: The Bears will have their time - for now. Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the holiday.
TVC:SPXEducation
by iamthewolf
PRO-GAP Tutorial PRO-GAP Tutorial Today is Monday and GBPAUD formed a PRO-GAP Definition of pro gap is: the gaps' direction is the opposite of the last candle's direction. We can see Last Friday's closing price was 1.6793 and this morning's opening price was 1.6849 which means all the sellers who sold in the last candle were trapped. Therefore a good trading plan was developed: wait for price to pull back and buy it actually pulled back into the last candle's opening price. and it is also a 0.618 level. Buy from 1.6814, SL 1.6790 and the result is almost 7 times Reward/Risk Ratio
Education
by tntsunrise
20
Fibonacci channel swing tradingThanks to Fibonacci we have many tools helping with everyday analysis. Fibonacci channel is one of them. It is a simple tool which can cover whole swing and when used properly can find a lot of possible places for PA to bounce and create small intraday swings. Educate, practice and trade with Fibonacci cause this math algo is everywhere. In single atom, in plants, in our bodies and minds, in piramids, in our solar system and in galaxies. So it is also present in Forex. Even if forex is played mostly by computer algos those algos were writteln by humans so fibonacci is also in that code. Good luck and have a good weekend.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mario_PLN
10
Follow the Trend, My Strategy!This is my trading plan. You can look through my published ideas to look at other examples. I need 3 reasons to enter a trade. 1. A clear direction. I use 3 emas 50, 100, and 200 as shown in the chart.(Required) 2. A horizontal support/resistance area. (Required) 3. Price retrace to one of the emas to act as resistance. (preferably than fib) 4. Fib continuation 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 level. Placing a stop loss. My target for stop loss is between 10-25 pips. I place my stop loss behind the horizontal and/or the next ema. My target price is always 2 times more pips than I risk. ---------------------------- I trade between 15 pairs, and on 30 minute time frame. One reason is to counter F.o.m.o trading(Fear of missing out). Counters Revenge trading because my trade size is smaller, and the opportunities are endless. Counters Gambler's Fallacy because I require 3 reasons to enter a trade, I don't enter a trade and expect to win after losing 3 times in a row, I place a trade based on my strategy. I'm still trying to evolve as a trader, as you can see that throughout my published ideas.
Education
by PavelKarakay
Fibonacci News Trade Strategy GU 15 m LongThis news strategy lets the wind die down from the price reaction of the news. You have time to place your fib on the news candle and watch the retracement develop. Price has had time to pick a direction from the markets reaction to the news. Sometimes to catch the best price for the retracement you will be using a 1m or 5m chart. SL is easy to see and place. TP is really up to your discretion. 10 pips or more. We have many different strategies to learn on our blog and we are constantly coming out with new strategies for traders to learn every week. Visit us below on the website, Twitter or Facebook.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Some thoughts on pattern recognition and correction waves:After seeing several charts on this site, I've noticed some common mistakes; re-tracement levels, pattern recognition, wave counts, and, trend-lines, along with, channel formation cover a lot of them. Some thoughts: Re-tracements / Projections don't always conform to 0.62 /1.62 ratios. Think about it. Is a 62% re-tracement really bullish? 38% and 50% re-tracement and projections are important too. Pattern recognition - SHS & W or WV tops and bottoms can be, and often are, subjective. The S sometimes becomes a V and vice-versa. Regardless, both have 'neck-lines' and a pattern only materializes after it is complete. A complete pattern requires revisiting the 'neck-line' and a 'bouncing-off' (usually with volume) to count as a 'pattern'. Remember, since prices often are fractal in nature, there may be patterns within patterns and using them, and their projections, can be a good way to understand price movement. Finally, failed patterns have equal importance as completed patterns, but, with the opposite indication. Wave-count - EW counts, to those that practice them, are somewhere between voodoo and gospel. They are difficult once you get into real-time trading. But some useful tips are as follows: 1) Charting an SMA and hiding everything else is a good way to view waves. Candlesticks, and their variations, can sometimes confuse the wave count because each 'red' candle is viewed in a certain way; diametrically opposite of each green candle. The eyes, and hence the mind, because of bias, can, and will, play tricks on you. 2) Wave 3 per-rule cannot be the smallest wave. 3) Extensions alternate between wave counts. 4) When an instrument moves from $7 to $400 in a matter of months, not using a log-scale, exaggerates higher price movements. Given that scale is important to EW analysis, price movement from $7-$14 (100%) at the bottom looks like 7% when the price moves from $100-$107 or 3.5% when price moves from $200-207. Trend-lines - Most practitioners I know follow the 3-touch principle of establishing trend-lines (and channels for that matter). Remember that consistency is important. Simply connecting 'highs' and 'lows' isn't necessarily the only way. Some ppl use closing prices, others use a combination of the two approaches. Trend-lines and channels change when switching scales so if you switch scales you will need to redraw them. A trend-line / channel that has 3 or more 'touches' is significant and can usually be relied upon to act as support / resistance. What is a break? Good question. You have to decide what that is. Is it an hourly close? A daily close? You have to decide, but then, stick with it. Change the definition in-between trades, but not during them :) Support and Resistance - These should be considered more like guidelines than hard rules. Often price forms patterns, in and around, these zones. Price doesn't simply bounce off a level (unless you're applying the 3-touch principle). Imagine if that were the case. Everyone would know about a 62% level and people would realize that not everyone can get in and out at the same price. So they obviously will change the expectations around that level. Some may be happy with 60%, others with 55%, and some third group may even be extra bullish / bearish and try and sneak in an extra %, here and there, at 65% And while patterns are fractal and levels created from different scales often intersect, there may be different trades being executed based on different patterns and timelines. If behavior is thought along these lines, then it is obvious pattern formation will take place at the zone of these levels and hence one needs to understand when a zone is breached. A final thought on volume. Volume analysis is almost as important as price-movement analysis, if not more. I've reached my word limit :) Note: The attached chart isn't meant to be bullish / bearish. I've simply tried to illustrate the above.
Education
by maximegalon55
EURUSD weekly Fibonacci levels for long term view and trading EURUSD is adhering or responding to the Fibonacci levels all most all of the times. When trader wants to ride the trend this much information is enough to enter and exit trades. We are not trying to forecast the direction or the top/bottom. We are trying to identify important zones in which price may turn in Future. Price patterns like double top or bottoms or many other patterns can be used along with Fibonacci. I have mentioned few on chart. Going ahead we can look for shorting opportunity near level 1 of Fibonacci and long near 1.27. Price may stop and turn(as expected) or continue up or down movement from mentioned levels. To avoid such scenarios where price continues the move instead of reversing, we need to take help of price structure and candlestick patterns. Many traders msg me about how Fibonacci doesn't work, I recommend them all to stop using Fibonacci and use the tool in which you believe. As a trader our job is not to criticize any tool or method of analysis. Our target needs to be "designing trade plan which works for us". No tool works independently in my experience, we always need to club different tools and use them collectively.
Education
by dhananjay.d.joshi
A smooth Fibonacci Channel XAUUSD for BeginnersI still remembered my coach told me to find the evidence of any reversal signals and notice the change of price action on each individual bars. I labelled herewith a higher high (HH) to show an uptrend formation. When we want to LONG, we look for any evidences to show many HH, and later the price action breaks the red down-trend line in this case (yellow spot). This is that simple . Our target is to look for any pivots or consolidation to take our first profit. Then do another analysis separately. If you want a longer run for your profit, Fibonacci is your friend. Simply apply a Fibonacci Channel correctly, you will know where the exit is. Each time when we are at the end of phase 2 of an uptrend. We are preparing two-way setups. Methods: The bigger arrows in green and red, labelled as an UP (U) and DOWN (D). If your LONG setup is triggered (a confirmed breakout maybe higher than resistance levels, and also price actions with many HH evidence), then you cancel your SHORT order. If your SHORT setup is triggered (a confirmed breakout maybe lower than support levels, and also price actions with many LL evidence), then you cancel your LONG order
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by SoloTraderAU
Why Fibonacci is your friend in trading stock or ForexThis is a 60 min time frame, indicators required: Stochastic oscillator with parameter 8,3,3 8 EMA & 20 EMA When to buy if you missed the boat of EMA crossover on 16-Jun Mind Read: 1) Any Fibonacci Retracement Level? Answer: 23.6%, 38.2% (=S1) 2) Wait for reversal signal (black up arrow), did it close above 8 EMA? Answer: Yes 3) Stochastic (8,3,3) shows price convergence 4) LONG during phase 1 When to sell ? (Reverse Thinking) Retracement level from 5-Jun 15:00 to 20-Jun 13:00 was 23.6%, then I project another Fibonacci Retracement (grey colour) to let its 38.2% overlap to old one. Therefore I will expect the highest price will reach somewhere near $0.938. By confirming this is the highest price, I draw two parallel orange trend lines. $0.938 is trapped. Risk: Stop-loss to be considered near S1 ($0.78), about 6%
BEducation
by SoloTraderAU