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Fibonacci

Why and when trends failHere, using gold I demonstrated the importance of time analysis. Most of traders analyze only price action in relation to price and most of indicators can do only that. However price need to be analyzed also in relation to time, as price moves in Fibonacci sequences not only in price scale but also in time as you see. And when it hits an important Fibonacci TIME extension, a trend will change direction for hours, months or years depending on timeframe. With these tools you can analyze time action: Fibonacci time extensions Fibonacci time zones Fibonacci arcs Fibonacci circles Fibonacci fans Pitchfork fan Gann fan, Gann angles (to place Gann fan you have to LOCK scale. Then put 45 degree angles. Angle 1-1 has to run by 45 degrees). Gann boxes Cyclical oscillators, CG Oscillators (Center of Gravity as Fisher, Ehler's CG) How to draw Fibonacci Time extensions - traditonally, time cycles are measures from LOWEST LOW to LOWEST LOW. You find 2 lowest lows and drag Fibonacci time extension tool between them and then drag back the third line to the first low where you started. Then you have Fib time extensions from the second lowest low that you connected, into the future. Its important, it has to be absolute lowest low. If you do it on weekly, zoom to daily and place the end on absolute daily low. Fibonacci Time zones. You place 1 on lowest low wig, 2 has to fall on the next candle. Best to do it on daily. 1 candle -1 time zone unit.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by ICFX
1
Moving up stop loss in a swing This is a beautiful example of how to move up your stop loss You see an 12345 structure in this photo I started this trade at the bottom of wave 2 and my stop loss was place below the bottom of wave one when we started buy i waiting on the first correction and moved my stop loss at the bottom of wave 4 once price started running i started moving the stop little by little until we reach the top of the wave at the top of the wave I would usually take any other profits besides the original I would move the original position below wave 4 or below 38.2% fib however i closed out of this position because I am expecting a bigger correction this is just a nice example with perfect execution i know some that count the pips and thats how they move their stops but this is just an example you can use as your own or tweak to your liking
Education
by sdailey23
Catch Me If You Can: Breaking Down the Elusive Elliott WaveHere's an explanation why Elliott Waves don't work most of the time, and then sometimes work perfectly. Lets take a closer look at a single impulse wave up and its correction (I'm using 61.8% retracement and wave 3 = 100% of wave 1). You simply can't trade based on that (red dots), here's why. If you treat it as 123 up trend forming (green count), you can't confidently: 1. short at the end of 1 to catch wave 2 because it can go higher (have an extension from 100% to 127.2%, 161.8% and 261.8%) 2. long at the end of 2 to catch wave 3 because it can go lower - from 23.6% to 38.2%, 50% and finally 61.8% and then go up for the up trend 123 - up to 88.6% of wave W in wave X and then go up in Y (if this is X not 2) - and even lower after that, break the start of wave 1 to reverse the trend down 3. short at the end of wave B (red) after a bounce from wave 2 to catch wave C (red), because it can go higher - it can go up from 23.6% to 38.2%, 50% and finally 61.8% of prev swing wave A (red) and then bounce down as zigzag or triangle - it can retrace as wave B (red) in a flat up to 88.6% and then go down still - or it can even be an expanded flat wave B/X and retrace up to 138.2% of wave A (38.2% above the end of wave 1, Sometimes even 61.8%! and only then drop down) - or it will go up in wave 3/Y = 100% of wave 1/W 4. long on breakout of the end of wave 1 to catch wave 3 because it can pullback - it can be wave a of Y or lower degree iii or 3 and immediately pullback in b/iv below wave 1 - it can be an expanded flat wave B/X and retrace from 105% up to 138.2% of wave A (38.2% above the end of wave 1, Sometimes even 61.8%! and then drop down) - it can be a short Y = 61.8% of W in WXY and then go down That's why you are only supposed to buy on a retest of wave 1 after the breakout 5. long at the end of wave C (next bounce from the end of B) (red) because it can go lower - it can become a triangle ABCDE and break the other way - it can still be wave B and go higher up a bit then down in zigzag/flat (same impulse-correction fractal of a lower degree, same options, see #3) - it can break the end of wave 2 and continue down as wave C from 61.8% up to 1.618% of wave A, although we mostly have short C = 61.8% of A in Bitcoin So, on the long side you are left only with 2 not-so-tradable options: - buy above 138% of wave 1 to ride a very small ~10% (100% - wave B retracement - 38%) chunk of wave 3 = 100% of wave 1. However, the expanded flat can still go to 161.8% and wave 3 can end early at 61.8% as wave C/Y. And if not that, this trade probably has a bad R/R and you will pay in fees a lot more that you possibly can gain. - buy on retest of wave 1/A/W in iv/x after the breakout to ride wave 3/C/Y (100% - wave 2/B/X retracement) up to 38.2% in case of an expanded flat or up to 100% of wave 1 in case of wave 3/C. And you can only to the 2nd option on the short side, because usually C = 61.8% of A, not 100%, invalidating the first setup. But guess what, that's called trading breakouts from a range/triangle, and you don't need Elliott Waves for that. Conclusion: I just showed you that in most cases Elliott Waves don't really work, they give you a number of possibilities for both bull/bear cases, not trend direction. You can't trade based only on Elliott Waves and fibs, without using other TA methods. The trend is basically just a sequence of 2 impulses and then comes a wave 4 which can become the 1st impulse down and reverse the trend or go up in wave 5. Waves 3 and 5 are not guaranteed. The only thing guaranteed is a 2nd impulse following the 1st. But in the current market with unclear 3/5 wave structure, low liquidity, hidden bottoms and traps you can't clearly spot even the 1st impulse, so there might not be a 2nd one. Continued Below =>
BEducation
by RagingRocketBull
2
The Golden Pocket Fibonacci like a BossBuying the pull back is always tricky. As a trader we deal with probabilities and try our very best to find high probability trades. We do this by finding confluence and various reasons to add to our trade setup. The Golden Pocket It is my ideal favorite zone to enter a high probability retracement after an impulse wave upwards. It is the 61.8% to 65% zone (highlighted in red). How to trade it i) Find a swing low and swing high points Bullish - Swing Low to Swing High Bearish - Swing High to Swing Low ii) Draw fib extension line iii) Find other confluence reasons to enter the trade besides this e.g. RSI levels, previous support levels. iv) Wait for confirmation of some form of support before considering entering the trade as it can sometimes just tear thru
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by mongacoin
8
Bitcoin - Fibonacci Spirals .1Due to dynamic scaling, FIB spirals may not seem accurate. Please adjust the price scale simply by dragging it up or down so that spiral 1 crosses wick A and spiral 2 crosses wick B. Fibonacci spirals provide the optimal link between price and time analysis and are the answer to a long search for a solution to forecasting both time and price. Each point on a spiral manifests an optimal combination of price and time. Corrections and trend changes occur at all those prominent points where the Fibonacci spiral is touched on its growth path through price and time. You will be astonished to see that if the correct centre is chosen, Fibonacci spirals pinpoint turning points in the market with an accuracy seldom before seen. Investing based on spirals is neither a black-box approach nor an over-fitted computerised trading system. It is a simple universal geometrical law applied to different sorts of products such as futures, stock index futures, stocks or cash currencies. Unlike several of the other Fibonacci studies, the exact methods for calculating Fibonacci spirals are kept as something of a secret. The basic idea behind the Fibonacci spiral is that a certain extreme point on a market chart is taken to be the centre of the spiral, and then a Fibonacci spiral based on the golden ratio is drawn emanating out from that centre. Certain points along the spiral are then considered to be strong indicators of market events. The Advocates often tout the Fibonacci spiral as an extremely accurate method of predicting the behaviour of a market based on both critical times and critical price levels, rather than simply on price levels. Several pieces of software exist for calculating Fibonacci spirals on a computerised chart. The secret nature of the calculations, however, makes it difficult for a prospective Fibonacci trader to assess the actual efficacy of the device. In general, Fibonacci spirals are generated by picking a starting point and then increasing the width of points along the spiral from the center by multiplying the width by a Fibonacci ratio for every quarter turn. In markets, this Fibonacci ratio would likely be determined by certain price levels within the market. www.babypips.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SECCommission
6
Harmonic Patterns - Gartley - Approach 01- AB has to touch the 0.618 of XA, but cannot touch to the 0.786 of XA - BC has to touch the 0.618 of AB, but cannot go above the A There are a few ways to look for D. In this approach, it is: - Put a Fib Retracement from X to B. - Put a Trend-Based Fib Retracement from A to B to A - If the 0.718 and 1.272 are close to each other choose, 0.718 - Else, choose the 1.272 Targets - the 0.382 or the 0.618 of Fib Retracement from A to D. Stop - X or 10 pips below
Education
by vogucoin
Where to Start and End a Fibonacci?Fib traders look for the ''natural rhythm'' of a market. But where exactly to place the ends can be subjective. I make it more objective by wiggling until price tells me. Sometimes the Highest High to Lowest Low is NOT best. Sometimes there are long wicks so hard to place one end. Sometimes momentum will take price further than it ''should'' While drawing the fib, drag one end up/down a bit. Look at how the price reacted to the various fib levels. Try to hit the most price turns with the most fib levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by EuroMotif
1
USDJPY, Fibonacci, and the Magical 110.025The wonders of Fibs This is USDJPY on FXCM . Left pane is Weekly chart going back to 2012. Right panels are zoomed in views of the circled areas. The Fib in left pane was drawn from the first impulse in first Quarter 2012. Each of the fib extensions shown becomes relevant later. Check the 4.0 Extension at 110.025. Not 110.000, not 100.000 but 110.025 That extension was touched once before (albeit cut though several times) That extension was touched this month (upper right) to the pip , and twice . Fascinating for several reasons: 1) The Ripples of a ''Protuberance'' that happened 6 years ago are still clearly in effect today. 2) This asset trades almost a $1 Trillion PER DAY by almost all banks around the globe. 3) Numerous conditions, people, and econs have changed a lot in the last six+ years. YET, that tiny first wave six years later still directs Trillions of Dollars and perhaps Billions of People to decide that $ 110.025 is THE number of importance Right Now . ******************************************************************************************************************** I am not religious but if there IS a God, then he/she/it will be found in/by/for the Golden Ratio. ******************************************************************************************************************** -
Education
by EuroMotif
3
BCH - Algorithmic Entry and Target hit beautifully!I realise it's easy to state after the fact, but BCH has produced a clear example of fibonacci entry and first target hit. I just missed my entry as I noticed this a little late, highlighting the difference between trading and TA. However, its impossible to miss the confluence with the entry, RSI moving above 30, divergence appearing on the EWO and the entry at the Golden Pocket. Stops just outside the 65 needed to be careful as a cheeky wick could have caught them. Its also satisfying to see my automatic algo, written using pine script, producing a fantastic trade set up in seconds. Sam
BEducation
by crypto_0sam0
Lucas Number sequence's a study on BTC Liquid IndexThe Lucas Number sequence from 0-123 is the main topic of this post as it accurately predicted tops and bottoms of 2017 bull run with a very high level of accuracy. Periods of consolidation can also be predicted with halfway points between levels and then beyond incorporating those halfway points. Lucas Number sequence prime N of Lucas Number prime Lucas Number sequence P.s What would be an interesting take on this would be using some sort of indicator to hone potential timings.
BNC:BLXEducation
by Cryptomedes
1
Fib extensions that could have made you a millionaire!Helloow fellow gamblers! I was looking at Fibs at a deeper level. The more I learn about them, the more obsessed I get with them. Now Fibs r my #1 trading tool. Most of u r already using Fib retracements. This chart shows that Fib extensions can also be very useful. I created them from Nov 8 2017 drop. Fib lines that did not control key levels r removed. This chart shows what happened in the past. Next 1 might show the future. I don't know what u guys r interested 2 c . U can write me in the comments if u don't want me posting these kinda ideas. If u wanna c more, just press the like button. 1:peace: /:D - Zoom in by dragging the scales. Double click for auto scale PS: There r some hidden stuff in this chart and only the very curious 1s of you will find it. Fib sequence: 1 + 1 = 2 + 1 = 3 + 2 = 5 + 3 = 8 + 5 = 13 + 8 = 21 + 13 = 34 + 21 = 55 + 34 = 89 + 55 = 144 + 89 = 233 + ... Fib extensions: 1.618, 2.618, 4.236 &1.272 & 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ... & 4.618, 5.618, ..., and a lot more For the nerds: Fib extensions: - A number divided by the previous number approximates 1.618 (21/13=1.6153, 233/144=1.6181) - A number divided by the second previous number approximates 2.618 - A number divided by 3rd previous number approximates 4.236 - Square root of 1.618 = 1.272 - Square root of 1.272 = 1.127 - Multiples of the base: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ... - I am also using natural numbers + golden ratio 4.618, 5.618, ... Retracements: - A number divided by the next number approximates the golden ratio .618 (13/21=.6190, 55/89=.6179) - A number divided by second next number approximates .382 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=.3819). -- Also, note that 1 - .618 = .618 *.618 = .382 - A number divided by another three places higher approximates .236 (13/55=.2363, 21/89=.2359, 34/144=.2361, 55/233=.2361) - Square root of .618 = .786 - Square root of .786= .886 Ref: stockcharts.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by cI8DH
43
5 STEPS TO CHANNEL THE TARGET WAVE 5 USING ELLIOTT WAVESSTEP 1 - Once the 1 wave is completed use Fib Retracement to find out the possible wave 2 level. Usually wave 2 is 0.5 - 0.8 of wave 1. In a uptrend Fib level is close to 0.8 but its the opposite on downtrend STEP 2- Once the wave 2 is completed use Fib Extension to find out the possible wave 3 level. Usually wave 3 is 1.618 of wave 1 or 2.618 of wave 2. STEP 3 - Once the wave 3 is completed then you can draw a line to join 1 and 3 and then draw a parallel line on wave 2 to project the wave 4. Usually wave 4 is 0.5 - 0.618 of wave 3 STEP 4 - Once wave 4 is completed then you can draw a line to join wave 2 and 4 and then remove the previously drawn line joining wave 1 and 3 STEP 5 - Then draw a parallel lines from wave 1 and 3 and the 50% trend line of the above parallel lines to project wave 5. Usually wave 5 is 1 or 0.618 of wave 1
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by surangadesilva
8
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out. These posts will be short simple and insightful. Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions. Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime. Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily. Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move. What a day. Stay tuned! If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629