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The Power of using NPOCS on your Charts BTC/USDA Naked Point of Control is an untested point of control which is either time based or volume based and exists in the current market structure. These NPOCS can serve as excellent targets for trades as well as potential areas of support and resistance dependent upon the NPOC's profile distribution. I have marked this Bitcoin Chart with Daily , Weekly and Monthly NPOCs and using the boxes I have demonstrated how powerful NPOCS can be when incorporated into a trading strategy for Scalps Daytrades and Swing setups. I use NPOCS with other confluences mainly Fib levels and order flow and the respect for these levels is well worth noting . I hope this information helps you define a strategy for your trading as utilizing these correctly will boost your ROI. Whatever the case thanks for viewing my work and be sure to like and follow .
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by SJTRADESFUTURES
15
Two Types of Elliot Wave CorrectionsWhen it comes to Elliot Wave Theory, we know of two different correction patterns . On the left you can see the classic correction, which is less common in real market situations. On the other hand, the flat correction (right) occurs more frequently in the market, since modern price action is often characterized by fakeouts . In this case, a fakeout looks like a wave B making a new high above wave A. In most cases, traders would open a trade here due to a structural break, which then runs against them (bull or bear trap). In the following table you can see how the respective correction patterns differ from each other and what you need to pay attention to. It is very important that you learn how to use Fibonacci tools correctly so that you can calculate the wavelength properly. Maybe I'll do a separate educational post on the proper use of those tools in future. Thank you very much for your attention, Your RT
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by RT_Trading_
9
4 Harmonic Patterns Every Trader Should Know 📚 Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss 4 phenomenally accurate harmonic patterns that you must know. 1️⃣The first and the simplest harmonic pattern is called ABCD pattern. This pattern is based on 3 legs of a move: ✔️Initial impulse (bullish or bearish). AB leg ✔️Retracement leg with a completion point lying within the range of the initial impulse. BC leg. ✔️Second impulse with a completion point lying beyond the range of the initial impulse (it must have the same direction as the initial impulse). BD leg Equal AB and CD legs indicate a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. ❗️Please, note that the time horizon and the length of the impulses must be equal. 2️⃣The second harmonic pattern is called Gartley Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form. To identify a Harmonic Gartley Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C points with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of D point of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Extension tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.618 level and 0.786 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch both 0.618 and 0.786 ✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB) *it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0 ✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 1.272 extension of AB leg (Fib. Extension of AB) *it should strictly touch 1.272 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 3️⃣The third harmonic pattern is called Bat Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form. To identify a Harmonic Bat Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C/D points of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Retracement tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.5 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch 0.5 but it can’t touch 0.618 ✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB) *it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0 ✔️ - The retracement of D point should lie strictly on 0.886 level of XA leg (Fib.Retracement of XA) *it should strictly touch 0.886 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 4️⃣The fourth harmonic pattern is called Cypher Pattern. This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form with C point lying beyond the range of XA leg. To identify a Harmonic Cypher Pattern we measure the retracement of B point with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of C point with Fib. Extension tool: ✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.382 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA) *it can touch both 0.382 and 0.618 ✔️ - The extension of C point should lie between 1.272 level and 1.414 level of XA leg(Fib. Extension of XA) *it can touch both 1.272 and 1.414 ✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 0.786 retracement of XC leg (Fib. Retracement of XC) *it should strictly touch 0.786 Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern. 🦉What is good about these patterns is the fact that they are objective. Since each point of the pattern is measured with Fibonacci levels, one can avoid subjectivity. Try harmonic pattern trading and you will see how efficient this strategy is. Do you trade harmonic patterns? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
33
NYSE Comp: Broadening Top Potential Macro WarningThe NYSE composite has spent the last year building a classic broadening top pattern. The pattern develops as strong hands distribute to weak hands, and when it occurs, often marks a transition from bull to bear. 1. Broadening formations are relatively rare and because the pattern itself is difficult to trade systematically (as the boundaries are continually moving farther apart) aren't given a lot of attention in literature. a. Edwards and Magee in their seminal "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" suggest that the broadening top, as a rule, only appears near the end or in the final phases of long bull markets. b. Shabacker in his classic "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits" also remarks that the pattern is rare, but extremely important, often marking an important transition from bull to bear. 2. In my experience both Shabacker and Edwards and Magee are correct. They are rare and generally very hard to trade (so I don't bother) but they do offer an important warning of a potential phase transition. 3. Note that the pattern isn't always well defined, with overthrows and underthrows of the pattern boundaries occuring regularly. This is what makes it hard to trade or design a trading strategy around. a. The pattern is extremely compelling when it appears in individual equity charts. As I see it, these are the important chart elements. 1. The composite broke the trendline from the March 2020 low. This changed the weekly trend from up to neutral. 2. After breaking the trendline, the Comp spent most of the next year moving laterally and tracing out a clear broadening formation, warning of a potential phase transition. 3. Over the last few weeks the Comp violated the rising trend line (marked on the chart) along the last three internal trend line lows, and accelerated to the lower boundary of the pattern. 4. I have included the 10 and 40 week moving averages. The two averages are roughly equivalent to the 50 and 200 day averages. Note that the 10 has rolled over and is moving to meet the flattened out 50. Often a narrowing between two moving averages marks an important market decision point. Its interesting that it is occuring at the very moment when the broadening formation appears to be nearing a conclusion. 5. If the market does begin to breakdown there are several initial move targets that can be constructed. I like to look for confluences of move targets and chart supports. The more the merrier. a. I like to overlay the .382, .500 and .618% retracement targets first. b. Next I locate chart supports. In this case, the area around the 14183 high from early 2020 can be expected to generate at least some buying interest. c. There is also a measured move target that can be generated using the width of the broadening top, it projects to roughly 14400. d. 14089 is the .382% Fibonacci retracement. 6. The support confluence provided by the pivot, the Fibo and the measured move suggest an initial support zone between 14089 and 14400. I would clearly watch this roughly 2% wide zone for reversal behaviors to either reduce shorts or perhaps, if the right behaviors develop, consider new longs. But again, the MAIN point is not so much generating trading targets as recognizing the pattern as potentially a harbinger of an important trend change. This is particularly important against the context presented in the macro overview posts of the last few weeks. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:NYAEducation
by CMT_Association
45
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: NDX dip at minor Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. "Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy. "Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket. Are the buyers still there? Enough to absorb the selling power? Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy. Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several. Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology : (click links below) Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only . . Ordered Chaos every Wave is born from Impulse, like a Pebble into Water. every Pebble bears its own Ripples, gilded of Ratio Golden. every Ripple behaves as its forerunner, setting the Pulse. each line Gains its Gravity . each line Tried and Tested. each line Poised to Reflect. every Asset Class behaves this way. every Time Frame displays its ripples. every Brain Chord rings these rhythms. He who Understands will be Humble. He who Grasps will observe the Order. He who Ignores will behold only Chaos. Ordered Chaos . . . want to Learn a little More? can you Spend a few Moments? click the Links under Related.
UEducation
by EuroMotif
2
Get major S&P trading levels through Pitchfan!Hey everyone, how are you all? Let’s discuss Pitchfan and Fibonacci Channel on S&P 500. There are some bearish news in the market. The news includes Federal Reserve’s stance on increasing the interest rates, making investors shifting into the bond markets. Netflix down by 22%. Your trades should always respect the fundamental analysis. Don’t try to go against it. Market Condition: S&P Index has been in a massive uptrend, giving around 120% returns from its previous low on 20 March 2020. It has been in uptrend since March 2020, having few corrections. But, with Pitchfan, we can catch all these corrections with high accuracy. Pitchfan Pitchfan is a mixture of Fibonacci Fan and Pitchfork. It uses both of their levels and has some features of Gann Fan too. The red coloured line is the median line which is the main support and resistance line. The other lines have importance according to Fibonacci’s rules. Main lines are 0.382, 0.5, 0.618. We have kept 0.25 because it is the median of the red line and the 0.5 level of Fibonacci. You can use my levels through the picture in the chart. How to draw a pitchfan? Pitchfan is drawn at the starting of a trend. Here, the market was consolidating before entering into the uptrend. A is the the first low of the trend, B is the next high and C is the next low. It can be drawn on the higher timeframes. Refer to the image below. How to trade these levels? These lines are the major points where the trend reverses on the lower timeframes. We can use these levels to trade. You need to check two things to get the direction of the trade: The current trend matches on both the higher timeframes and the lower timeframes. The news is in the same direction as your trade. After this, you have to get the best entry. For this, you need to get these three confirmations: Candlestick Pattern Fibonacci Retracement or any Chart Pattern RSI or any other Oscillator Check out the below chart image to get the perfect entry: Observations: Price will touch these lines in 70% of the cases. Price might not touch these lines in 30% of the cases due to sentiments or any other driving factor. When price passes by any major level, it will always take a pullback on the lower timeframes. You may trail your stop loss or enter into the trade by checking out the pullback. Targets? Target can be the next line coming in the direction of the trade. Always have RR of 3 or more. You can always trail the stop loss after checking out for the pullback on the lower timeframes. Always check the news before carrying your positions overnight. S&P might bounce back from the yellow level, from the blue demand zone. If it breaks it, our target will be the red median line. Fibonacci Channel: Fibonacci channels gives the major turning levels too. Here, you can see the price is bouncing back from the 0.5 to 0.618 levels, and it has happened multiple times. You can take confirmations on the lower timeframes and take the trades accordingly. Do let me know if you want to learn how to make it.
TVC:SPXEducation
by theTAguy
2
Looking at the Forest, not the trees.Currently we're at a secular resistance level where the prices have reached the top of the uptrend channel. Signaling a painful, but necessary correction. Price Structure. The SPX has had a solid uptrend right after the recovery from 2009, this sets the start of the Bull market, so the 0.0 Fib level. Consequently it sets the the 0.618Fib level at the peak reached in 2007. Four main Fibonacci levels: 2007 : 1652 (0.618 Fib) 2015 : 2243 (1.0 Fib) 2019 : 3105 (1.618 Fib) 2021 : 4400 (2.618 Fib) Important Support/Resistance Levels to watch in the leg range (2191 - 4818): 0.764 Fib: 4171 0.618 Fib: 3792 0.5 Fib : 3485 After the market downturn and the recovery in 2009 an uptrend started that reached a new All Time Highs (ATH) in 2013, when the market tested the double top and broke out the range (RBO) to the upside to continue its path to a new ATH. It reached 1.0 Fib on 2015 when the perception of the market was that it was stalling, 2016 was a presidential election year, and Trump was gaining terrain but the market kept an eye on the events to take a decision. After the election the market resumed its uptrend, making HH-HL, and reaching new ATH. The trend was meaningfully dipped twice, which basically it was a retesting of the support through a painful correction that wiped off the four year gains. The current leg started after the near Zero interest rates set by the Fed. The level is currently at 2.618 Fib referred to the start of this Bull market in 2009. This usually signals a resistance and a test of the 1.618 Fib levels and everything in between, depending on how the markets are still wanting to buy the dip, which has been the constant since 2009. There are some curious facts I found on this analysis, from 2004 and until until 2007 the market entered a rally, the interest rates were raised until it reached 1500 points, where the interest rates started to go down, unemployment started to go higher and the market hit an ATH. I set this point in the chart as 0.618Fib. When it hit bottom in 2009 the interest rates were at near zero and it started the bull market we're at in this moment. The interest rates started to go higher when the unemployment was at 5%, which signals a recovery. It was on 2015 when it peaked and it coincidentally hit the 1.0Fib referred to the previous ATH in 2007. The market continued and when the interest rates stopped going higher the market hit a new ATH in 2019, at this time the market hit a 1.618 Fib, the unemployment was at its very low level of 3.50, which again signals a very well recovered economy, and all of a sudden the pandemic put a halt in the economy and the unemployment spiked to 14.70, and the interest rates backed down to 0.25%. This market did the "V Shape recovery" and skyrocketed to 2.618Fib (4,500) where it has been dancing around. If the pattern repeats itself then we could expect a technical level where the interest rates should start to go higher, this market should make a necessary correction and continue its uptrend. I forecast a correction back to 3000, where the technical level of 1.618 was reached. I have seen this kind of acceleration pattern before, as you can see the slope, which can be spotted in the middle line of the uptrend channel goes at a speed of 2.5 points per week and the legs had a slope of 7.2 points per week, meanwhile after the V shape recovery it accelerated to a speed of 26 points per week, almost 3x what it had been the normal speed, and it jumped from the lower part of the uptrend channel to the top of the upper resistance trend channel. Usually when we see this behavior the pattern is that it goes back to retest the previous resistance level, which basically would take it back to 3000. Of course several economic and monetary factors have to be involved for the market to do this kind of correction, it depends on the Fed who has to assess the unemployment rate, the inflation, GDP, fiscal policies, there's no magic number. This market needs a correction so new buy opportunities at a discount can be created and this market smells like it's the time to cash out. These are not predictions, those are patterns and patterns tend to repeat in time. "Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn't changed for thousand of years". ~ Jesse Livermore
SP:SPXEducation
by Madrid
3
Illustration of Logarithmic Fibonacci LevelsThis chart illustrates the differences between the linear Fibonacci retracement levels that are generated by the TradingView tool and the Fibonacci retracement levels generated logarithmically (in orange). For example, retracing 61.8% from the high is computed using the following: e^(((ln(high) - ln(low)) * (1-phi)) + ln(low)) The two blue lines are computed logarithmically against the 0.04958 -> 0.739 movement from last year -- the higher line is 50% retraced, the lower line is 61.8% retraced. (One of these were mentioned in the linked related idea.) More than anything, this chart shows that there is a significant difference for values at DOGE/USD's fraction-of-a-dollar level, but that price still seems to respect both. When you're doing Fibonacci analysis on something below a price value of a couple of dollars, like the current DOGE/USD value, keep in mind that this little extra computing by-hand can provide deeper insights into movements!
COINBASE:DOGEUSDEducation
by NeoWhiteRabbit
1
Bearish Entry ExampleThis kind of price action happens all the time, you just have to spot it while it's happening so that you can plan your trade and execute. I have put this together to give you an idea of the type of things I look for in the hope that it can help you too. Once price action has made a clear impulse to the upsides and taking out previous structure that's our first sign that the buyers are stepping in. Once we see some corrective price action we can place our fib from the high to low, mark out previous structure and identify the pattern that price is making to build a picture of where price is most likely to reverse giving us the best possible entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn26193975
3
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CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
33
FHZN - The power of elliot waves Dear subscribers, lets come together for an educational article featuring the zurich airport. SIX:FHZN We have published some articles about the Zurich Airport in the past and suspected back then a more bullish structure than this one which we are publishing now. The Zurich Airport company operates and manages the eponymous Zurich Airport in Switzerland, which is the international transportation hub for the entire country. The company has an excellent management and the government of Zurich itself holds almost 38.38% of all shares. Therefore, Zurich Airport can always rely on government support and enjoys a good reputation. In addition, the company is increasingly expanding into emerging markets and now owns Hercilio Luz Airport (FLN) in Florianopolis Brazil. For the future, it is therefore clear that the company is increasingly driving its presence abroad and expanding its business model. However, the zurich airport stock provides an excellent example to introduce traders who are not familiar with the Elliot Wave method of analysis. The stock has originally been around since 2000, but on Tradingview we only have access to the market data since the beginning of 2010, but this makes little difference to the current movement, as a huge 1-2 wave setup was also formed during the period 2000-2010. Technical explanation of the Elliot wave structure: The stock has experienced a huge price increase since 2012, which was supported based on a huge 1-2 (Orange) wave setup. From this structure, a large wave 3 was established, which additonally established a complete impulse of its own (dark green). After completing a short correction in wave 4, the stock first formed an impulse (light green) and ended the year-long bull market with a final impulse (turquoise) Since then, we have seen a very hard downward impulse, which reached its absolute peak in early 2020 due to the Corona crisis. Since the last low at just under $83, the stock has been rising again in what we categorized as a wave B (yellow). Now, a wedge has formed over the last two years, which strengthens our assumption of a corrective B wave. Finally, a breakout can be expected within the year 2022 and the stocj will correct with high probability back to 80$. Disclaimer: According to legal regulations, Mornau-Research is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk. Mornau-Research cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence. =============================================================================================================== If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact us.
SIX:FHZNEducation
by Mendenmein-Capital
HAPPY 2022 ⚪️ 2021's RecapHello guys, Wish you're all doing fine. Happy New Year. Sorry I wasn't around these past few days. I was on a break during the holidays. I decided to recap the Educational Ideas we posted in 2021. Let's gather them all in one post and take a quick look: First things first, Fibonacci, an excellent tool for analyzing the market: Bollinger Bands, And how they help us with our forecasts: RSI, Another great indicator to identify Oversold and Overbought conditions: Parabolic SAR, to determine the break-even point or entry or exit points: Now, this final post is where most of the great analyzers on TradingView have come together to share their educational ideas. Take a look: How did you spend 2021? Was it a profitable year for you? Did you learn anything new? Any big losses? Please share it with us.
Education
by ShawnMCR
5
Your only as good as the assets you tradeThis is just a short blog post of a much longer idea! In a recent post we spoke about focusing only on assets that are in play for the day, even tough with day trading you can still make solid profits, especially on the tick charts, trading ranges, a trend will generate you much bigger and more importantly, easier profits. This is why it is vital to focus on assets which could generate momentum, because at the end of the day in day trading you are only as good as the assets you trade. Below you will find a chart of NASDAQ (left) and a chart of XAUUSD (right), one has moved significantly upwards while one was stuck in a whipsaw range which ended up breaking to the down side towards the end of the day on December 31st. Choosing to trade XAUUSD would be much easier to make a profit.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by PrimedGroup
3
Pulse of an Asset via Fibonacci: Chapter 7: the Mighty 2.618Chapter 7: "the Mighty 2.168: like a Rook in Chess" "Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. Each of the Ripples has precise bounds defined by the "Golden Ratio". Price will often ricochet, creating a "Ping" that one can almost HEAR. The 2.618 is a Special ratio, 1.618 x 1.618, as the Golden Ratio Squared. It is like a Rook in Chess: Strong, Steadfast, and Dangerous at a Distance. If a wave is to be sustainable, then it must have a very strong 2.618 core. . This is "Chapter 7" of my ongoing "Book" detailing my methodology. The first six chapters are linked below, best to start with #1 and #2. I will use this Chapter to collect example of the Might 2.618 in action. Previous Chapters: Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples. Chapter 2: Detailed Samples and multiple Impulses. Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves. Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to the Birth Place. Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Nature's Perfect Expansion. Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili, 'one' Ping only please. . . Ordered Chaos every Wave is born from Impulse, like a Pebble into Water. every Pebble bears its own Ripples, gilded of Ratio Golden. every Ripple behaves as its forerunner, setting the Pulse. each line Gains its Gravity. each line Tried and Tested. each line Poised to Reflect. every Asset Class behaves this way. every Time Frame displays its ripples. every Brain Chord rings these rhythms. He who Understands will be Humble. He who Grasps will observe the Order. He who Ignores will behold only Chaos. Ordered Chaos .
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by EuroMotif
41
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: NDX at minor Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. "Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy. "Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket. Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power? Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy. Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several. Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology : (click links below) Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only . . Ordered Chaos every Wave is born from Impulse, like a Pebble into Water. every Pebble bears its own Ripples, gilded of Ratio Golden. every Ripple behaves as its forerunner, setting the Pulse. each line Gains its Gravity . each line Tried and Tested. each line Poised to Reflect. every Asset Class behaves this way. every Time Frame displays its ripples. every Brain Chord rings these rhythms. He who Understands will be Humble. He who Grasps will observe the Order. He who Ignores will behold only Chaos. Ordered Chaos . . . want to Learn a little More? can you Spend a few Moments? click the Links under Related.
UEducation
by EuroMotif
1
The Most Powerful Market Timing TechniqueI'll start off this post with a simple question: why do market technicians place such importance on "confirming" particular areas in a chart? To answer this, we must first understand what confirmation is and what its purpose is. As simply as I can describe it, a confirmation is a technical process of elimination. That is, one can confirm a directional price change in trend by confirming that a continuation (at least immediately, relative to the time frame examined), is a technical impossibility. Through many hours of cumulative human observation, we have been able to derive rules that the market follows unconditionally. These types of absolute rules are few and far between, but knowledge of them is critical to swing trading pivot highs and lows, as well as a basis for having confidence in timing the market. And that last piece is what confirmations are all about: they provide the swing trader with enough confidence to risk his or her monetary life without batting an eye in real time. To catch a major peak or trough within pips of the true high or low (especially in today's leveraged markets) is not only immensely difficult but is also a psychologically torturous undertaking. The outcome of success is immense wealth accumulation in a matter of minutes; no other platform exists in this world where one can turn their life around in such a short amount of time without it being a function of pure chance gambling (like the lottery). In fact, if one can master the art of confirmation (which is to say that one can implement techniques like the monthly time cycle convergence displayed above), then it becomes possible for one to be nearly certain of achieving the highest form of monetary return that is offered in all of financial markets. I would say that a situation like the one we have here and presented above, offers at least a 90% chance of success; insofar as one can succeed in using short-term options leverage to catch the top or bottom of a major turn and yield something in the ballpark of 10,000% return in a week. At the very least, I'd say that the probabilities are such that the techniques are worth serious examination from serious investors with serious amounts of risk capital. So now that we've covered what confirmations are and how they can be of enormous assistance to the patient swing trader, I'd like to discuss this so-called "Most Powerful Confirmation in Technical Analysis." The technique is a simple trial-and-error test of a particular time period that is surmised to contain a "significant" sub-period of time that serves as a major turning point in markets. For example, my hypothesis is that December of 2021 contains a sub-window of time within the monthly time interval that contains the all-time high price in the S&P 500. My initial reasoning is unimportant; the point is that I have a hypothesis of a major directional change in markets and I want to confirm it as much as possible before I seriously consider acting on it. Thus, I will first look to prior major peaks and troughs over the last 20ish years (Cycle, or Supercycle, in Elliott Wave Terms), and measure the number of months in between these points and the current month to see if there are any numerically-significant matches on at least three of them. What do I mean by numerical significance? I mean that it is an observed fact that there exist certain additive sequences (like the Fibonacci Sequence) that ultimately dictate all price movements in free markets. I will not discuss the myriad sources and hypotheses that propose reasons for why this is; I am going to assume that the collective literature is proof enough of its apparent existence. In any case, my goal is to measure the number of months back to each major high or low and see if numbers like "21, 144, 233, 377, etc." come up in these measurements, and if so, how many of them are there? In addition to fibonacci-number monthly counts are "natural roots and squares," whereby a monthly count is a number that can be perfectly squared or rooted to a whole integer. Further, if the root or square is geometrically significant (i.e. a multiple of 2, 3, or 5), then it may serve as a double-confirmed count and provide the swing trader with even more confidence to pursue his swing conviction. Lastly, if the monthly count on any historically significant peak or trough point in time is a natural root or square, is geometrically significant, AND IS ALSO a Fibonacci number, then you have a triple-confirmed count and even more certainty that the month under examination is a future cash-cow. An example of a triple-confirmed count is 144 months back because 144 is 11th fibonacci number, is also the natural square of 12, and 12 is of geometric significance because of its additive/multiplicative relationship with 3 and the root of 3 (which derives the mathematics of triangles and trines). To wrap this up, the chart above shows that EVERY MAJOR PEAK AND TROUGH over the past 20 or so years spins out monthly time counts of numbers that are categorically relevant to the aforementioned criteria. If I wanted to be even more precise than to say "December 2021 will contain the all-time pivot high," then I would conduct a similar analysis, but on a weekly timeframe using a lookback period of about 5 years. The peaks and troughs will be of one lower degree than those of the monthly analysis, but will similarly provide counts that all spin-out signficant numbers if the week that I am examining, is in fact, the correct week containing the major turn. I call this iterative process of trial-and-error "Time Period Convergence" as a general umbrella term for this all-powerful type of analysis. However, the sky is the limit in terms of precision and one could theoretically work his way down to the exact second of the major turn if one has already confirmed numerically-significant counts on the monthly, weekly, daily, hourly (most important for short-term swing trading, FYI), 30-minute, 15-minute, 5-minute, 1-minute and 30-second timeframes, as long as one has access to live data that can feed in such timeframes. Since I began with a simple question, I will leave you with a simple question: Do you think still think it's impossible to time markets? -Cyc-Pig-lycal Convergence SP:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC TVC:DJI TVC:RUT
SP:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
5
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: SPX true 4.236 correction done?"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. Each of the Ripples has precise bounds defined by the "Golden Ratio". Until a new Impulse occurs, the Price oscillates within "Energy Bands". The Golden Ratio is the underlying building block of the entire Universe. From the Arms of a Spiral Galaxy, to the Bones of Your Fingers, it's in there. If there IS a God, then we will surely find Him/Her/It thru the Golden Ratio. Shown here is the SP500 Index, and the correction started by a Covid variant. 500 large companies, each with hundreds of variables, worth trillions of dollars. Yet, the "Answer" to that ridiculously complicated equation is "The Golden Ratio". 4.236 is the most common wave endpoint, so the correction may well be done. The numerous "Pings" along the wave front confirm the validity of the fib series. The "Impulse Core" (the golden pocket) will be the strongest resistance in this area. . My TV collection of ideas detailing the Concepts: Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: 'one' Ping only .
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by EuroMotif
2
Weber's Law and Fibonacci Numbers: An Exploratory EssayI use Fibonacci numbers rather frequently. In fact, the Fib retracement tool is the first thing I reach for when I start on a new chart. However, explanations for how Fibonacci numbers work have always sound woolly and mystical to me. They work because "man is subject to rhythmical procedure", because there is a Golden Ratio that is hidden behind all things, because Cthulhu says so? However, when we take a close hard look at reality, and actually whip out a ruler and measure things, we find that the Fibonacci sequence is *not* found as-is throughout reality. What we do find are *approximations*. However, this is to be expected for approximations of subjects where the rate of growth is proportional to the current size. And this is to be expected because of Weber's Law. Weber’s law is a psychological law quantifying the perception of change in a given stimulus. The law states that the change in a stimulus that will be just noticeable is a constant ratio of the original stimulus. It has been shown not to hold for extremes of stimulation. And since I will be referencing Mike Cohn's excellent essay (1), I might as well quote his explanation of how Weber's Law apply to Fibonacci numbers: "Imagine instead being handed a 20kg weight and a 21kg weight. They are the same one kg difference as the one and two kg weights. But you would have a much harder time identifying the heavier of the two weights. The difference from one to two kilograms is 100%. You can probably distinguish the weight of items that differ by 100%. The difference between 20 and 21kg, however, is only 5%. You probably can’t tell the difference. (I know I can’t.) And if you could, it would mean you should be able to distinguish between a 1.00 kg weight and a 1.05 kg weight, as that would also be 5%. The values in the Fibonacci sequence work well because they roughly correspond to Weber’s Law. After the two (which is 100% bigger than one), each number is about 60% larger than the preceding value. According to Weber’s Law, if we can distinguish a 60% difference in effort between two estimates, we can distinguish that same percentage difference between other estimates. So, the Fibonacci values work well because they increase by about the same proportion each time." So, given that how we think is affected by how we perceive (2), if Weber's Law applies, the Fibonacci retracement tool works for some of us because it allows us to focus our *imagination by visualising discernible and distinct possibilities within a limited range*. This is why the common criticisms of TA, including Fibs, are valid: 1) it is an uncertain business; 2) one cannot consistently identify where levels should be placed and forecasts are prone to revision; 3) its narrative story-telling power may be stronger than its forecasting power; and 4) levels cannot be verified till they have been tested (ie passed). Let's be humble and accept the general validity of these criticisms; for if TA can be an exact science, let he produce an algorithm which could make anyone rich! That being said, if Weber's Law apply thusly, it simply reaffirms what experience traders often exhort: that it is hard for algorithms to replace (3) the imagination and instincts of an experienced trader! Having said that, if Weber's Law apply thusly, we ought to 1) pay attention to how other industries, eg Mike Cohn's, have adapted Fibonacci numbers to great success and ask ourselves if our approach to Fibs can be adapted accordingly; and 2) maybe more importantly, reconsider our values, assumptions, beliefs and expectations of those tools we use that are based on Fibs. (1) www.mountaingoatsoftware.com (2) www.frontiersin.org (3) "Replace", not "aid".
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBravoCharlie77
14