Harmonic Patterns
Bitcoin - Market Seasonality 📉📉 What is crypto seasonality?
Crypto seasonality is the perception that Bitcoin will rise and fall over a set period of time, drastically affecting the crypto market overall.
Bitcoin (BTC) is the world’s largest cryptocurrency, as well as the first-ever one. As the first cryptocurrency, it has tons of value locked up into it at all times, and all subsequent coins, otherwise known as altcoins, are tied to it in some way.
However, Bitcoin is no stable asset. The world’s first cryptocurrency is consistently ranging in value, dropping or rising tens of thousands of dollars at any given point. Every four years, this volatility is expected to reach a peak before crashing relatively hard due to the Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin halving is programmed into the Bitcoin blockchain. Every four years, the halving occurs, and the rewards for mining Bitcoin are cut in half, effectively ensuring less Bitcoin is coming into circulation with every block mined.
The market tends to correct after a halving, with Bitcoin’s price rising due to its more scarce nature, only to crash shortly afterward as investors cash in their newly-earned profits, and the market overcorrects as a result. While Bitcoin crashes, more investors begin worrying about their investments and may pull out to move funds into altcoins.
📉2. Is crypto seasonality good or bad?
It affects everyone. But whether it’s good or bad depends on your investment personality.
Crypto seasonality can be seen as both good and bad, depending on your perspective and investment personality. For one, newer traders might see seasonality as a good thing, as they can now invest in Bitcoin at a lower price. Long-time holders, however, might despise crypto seasonality as their Bitcoin holdings are almost guaranteed to crash every four years, forcing them to wait out the lows or reinvest their holdings into altcoins.
That said, one can almost always expect Bitcoin to rise back up due to supply and demand. While this belief is never a guarantee, the leading cryptocurrency has historically risen to higher highs after each halving so far.
📉3. How crypto seasonality affects investors
Crypto seasonality might force Bitcoin-only investors to gamble in the altcoin market.
When Bitcoin’s price crashes, investors are almost forced into the altcoin market to continue generating profits. That said, altcoins are entirely unpredictable, and a project that’s massively popular one day can crash suddenly the next.
The altcoin market is also full of scams. Rug pulls and deceptive marketing have led to investors being taken advantage of. Regulatory policies are still in the works and can negatively affect a trader's experience as they develop. Exchanges can be hacked and holdings stolen. There’s really no telling what can happen in the wild west that is the altcoin market.
Sure, there are safer ways than others. Investors can buy into established passive income methods like Uniswap’s (UNI) liquidity pools, or participate in the mining or staking process of a coin rather than simply investing in it, but there’s still an inherent risk alongside these processes.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Fear/Greed Index = NEUTRAL ✅As many of you guys know closely look at the Fear/Greed Index indicator when trading the crypto market and i try to allign the technical analysis with the sentiment analysis because crypto market is very emotional and many moves are based on the emotions either it's fear/greed or anything else.
For today the 04.02.2022 FEAR/GREED index indicator is located at a NEUTRAL area meaning we have no ENTRY, the RETAIL HEARD is not in a GREED or a FEAR Sentiment so there is no trading opportunity based on this market analysis tool, let's wait for the btc drop somewhere around 45k - 42.5k in those areas there is a high probability the tool will be somewhere around 40-50 FEAR area so that will be a good LONG ENTRY.
✅ Why Measure Fear and Greed?
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:
✅ Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
✅ When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means "Extreme Fear", while 100 means "Extreme Greed". See below for further information on our data sources.
What do you think ? Do you use this market tool ?
Stochastic Trading Indicator 📉📉📉📉 The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. The indicator can range from 0 to 100. The closing price tends to close near the high in an uptrend and near the low in a downtrend.
📉 The stochastic indicator is a two-line indicator that can be applied to any chart. It fluctuates between 0 and 100. The indicator shows how the current price compares to the highest and lowest price levels over a predetermined past period.
📉 How do you use a stochastic indicator?
How to use the Stochastic indicator and “predict” market turning points
If the price is above 200-period moving average (MA), then look for long setups when Stochastic is oversold.
If the price is below 200-period moving average (MA), then look for short setups when Stochastic is overbought.
📉 The Bottom Line. While relative strength index was designed to measure the speed of price movements, the stochastic oscillator formula works best when the market is trading in consistent ranges. Generally speaking, RSI is more useful in trending markets, and stochastics are more useful in sideways or choppy markets.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Hammer Candlestick Pattern 📉📉📉📉 A hammer candlestick is a technical trading pattern that resembles a “T” whereby the price trend of a security will fall below its opening price, illustrating a long lower shadow, and then consequently reverse and close near its opening. Hammer candlestick patterns occur after a security has fallen in price, typically over three trading days. They are often considered signals for a reversal pattern.
📉 The hammer candlestick is a bullish trading pattern that may indicate that a stock or other assets like currency pairs/crypto coins has reached its bottom, and is positioned for trend reversal
📉 According to most textbooks: Whenever you spot a Hammer candlestick pattern, you should go long because the market is about to reverse higher. And that's what you do. The price immediately reverses and you get stopped out for a loss.
📉 Hammer candlestick is a unique candlestick pattern that indicates a potential trend reversal. Since it forms in a downtrend, traders associate the hammer with the return of bullish trend in the market. It is a short green candle with long lower shadow, which signifies lower price rejection by the market.
Do you use hammer candlestick pattern in your analysis ? What do you think about it ?
TDI Trading Indicator 📉📉📉📉 Let’s break down the Traders Dynamic Index indicator and go through it a little bit. As you can see, this scalping indicator has five moving averages.
The green line is called the price line and is similar to the RSI indicator and represents the market sentiment. It shows you how the market is moving related to positive and negative expectation. the settings for the price line is 2.
The red line is called the signal line is simply a crossover of the green line and can be used for entry and exit in the market. The settings for the signal line is 7.
The yellow line is called the base line is what we refer to as the overall market sentiment. It shows the overall direction of the market. The overall market has a tendency to do two things. It can turn slowly, or it can continue to go in the initial direction. This is because it’s too big and it can’t turn too quickly. It’s got to come to a gradual end. The settings for the base line is 34.
Last but not least, we have two blue lines, one above and one below. Those blue lines represent the volatility in the market, similar to the Bollinger Bands. They are increasing and decreasing volatility. Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) MetaTrader indicator — a comprehensive but helpful indicator that uses RSI (Relative Strength Index), its moving averages, and volatility bands (based on Bollinger Bands) to offer traders a full picture of the current Forex market situation. This indicator can use sound and visual alerts.
📉 The TDI is the only technical indicator that can read the market sentiment, market volatility, and momentum at the same time. The concept is very simple, it is 3 rsi indicators on 3 different time frames and then it is combined with Bollinger bands. That is where the 5 lines come from
📉 Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) MetaTrader indicator — a comprehensive but helpful indicator that uses RSI (Relative Strength Index), its moving averages, and volatility bands (based on Bollinger Bands) to offer traders a full picture of the current Forex market situation. This indicator can use sound and visual alerts.
Do you use this trading indicator ? What do you think ?
📉📉📉 Wedge Trading Pattern 📉 What Is a Wedge?
A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts.
📉 Understanding the Wedge Pattern
A wedge pattern can signal either bullish or bearish price reversals. In either case, this pattern holds three common characteristics: first, the converging trend lines; second, a pattern of declining volume as the price progresses through the pattern; third, a breakout from one of the trend lines. The two forms of the wedge pattern are a rising wedge (which signals a bearish reversal) or a falling wedge (which signals a bullish reversal).
📉 Falling Wedge
When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, price may breakout above the upper trend line.
This usually occurs when a security’s price has been rising over time, but it can also occur in the midst of a downward trend as well.
The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal. While price can be out of either trend line, wedge patterns have a tendency to break in the opposite direction from the trend lines.
📉 Rising Wedge
This usually occurs when a security’s price has been rising over time, but it can also occur in the midst of a downward trend as well.
The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal. While price can be out of either trend line, wedge patterns have a tendency to break in the opposite direction from the trend lines.
Do you use this trading pattern ?
BITCOIN MARKET SEASONALITY 📉📉📉📉 As we talked about market seasonality i will explain in this video why i look forward bitcoin bullish market seasonality.
📉 As you can see we have an intresting bullish cycle that will start exactly from the incoming month APRIL towards AUGUST we have a higher chance to see BITCOIN going higher at least this is what statistics shows to us.
What do you think ? Do you use market Seasonality ?
📉📉 FEAR/GREED INDEX
📉 Why Measure Fear and Greed?
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:
📉 Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means "Extreme Fear", while 100 means "Extreme Greed". See below for further information on our data sources.
Volume Trading Indicator 📉📉📉✅ Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis because it is used to measure the relative significance of a market move. The higher the volume during a price move, the more significant the move and the lower the volume during a price move, the less significant the move.
✅ Volume indicators are technical tools to evaluate a security's bull and bear power. Most look specifically at buying vs. selling pressure to determine which side is in control of price action. Others attempt to identify emotions that are moving the security at a particular time
✅ A high positive multiplier with high volume indicates strong buying pressure which pushes the indicator higher. On the other hand, a low negative number with high volume indicates strong selling pressure which pushes the indicator lower.
✅ Down volume indicates bearish trading, while up volume indicates bullish trading. If the price of a security falls, but only on low volume, there may be other factors at work aside from a true bear turn
Do you use this trading indicator ?
ENGULFING CANDLESTICK PATTERN 📉📉📉✅ The pattern has greater reliability when the open price of the engulfing candle is well above the close of the first candle, and when the close of the engulfing candle is well below the open of the first candle.
✅ The bullish engulfing candle signals reversal of a downtrend and indicates a rise in buying pressure when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend. The bearish engulfing signals reversal of the uptrend and indicates fall in prices by the sellers who exert the selling pressure when it appears at the top of an uptrend
✅ The bearish engulfing candle occurs when the real body of a down candle completely envelops the real body of the prior up candle. A bullish engulfing candle occurs when the real body of an up candle completely envelops the real body of the prior down candle.
✅ How accurate is bullish engulfing?
The bullish engulfing candlestick acts as a bullish reversal 63% of the time, which is respectable, ranking 22 where 1 is best out of 103 candle patterns
✅ What is bullish engulfing pattern?
A bullish engulfing pattern is a candlestick pattern that forms when a small black candlestick is followed the next day by a large white candlestick, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day's candlestick.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Tweezer Tops vs Tweezer Bottom 📉📉📉📉 A tweezer is a technical analysis pattern, commonly involving two candlesticks, that can signify either a market top or bottom. Tweezer bottoms are considered to be short-term bullish reversal patterns, whereas tweezer tops are thought to be bearish reversals.
📉 Tweezer top indicates a bearish reversal whereas Tweezer bottom indicates a bullish reversal. Tweezer top candlestick pattern occurs when the high of two candlesticks are almost or the same after an uptrend
📉 A Tweezer Bottom occurs during a downtrend when sellers push prices lower, often ending the session near the lows, but were not able to push the bottom any further. Tweezer Bottoms are considered to be short-term bullish reversal patterns that signal a market bottom.
A tweezers top is when two candles occur back to back with very similar highs. A tweezers bottom occurs when two candles, back to back, occur with very similar lows. The pattern is more important when there is a strong shift in momentum between the first candle and the second
Do you use twezzer tops or bottoms ?
Educational Post about Proper Speculation (save this post)hello traders Use this this to sharpen your skills and refresh your mind to become stronger. Im leaving you this educational post about proper speculation.
As you can see I'm talking about things that no one even talk.
give a like and comment and save if you agree with post! hope it will help you . Enjoy it
✅ RISK ON vs RISK OFF ✅ Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades.
🎯 Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity, its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing are they buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets.
🎯 Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money
🎯 On other side RISK OFF is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
✅ RISK ON Assets
Stock Market
Crypto
USOil
AUD
NZD
CAD
EUR
GBP
✅ RISK OFF Assets
Government Bonds
JPY
CHF
USD
GOLD
SILVER
BITCOIN EXCHANGE RESERVE 📉📉📉📉 WHY I AM BULLISH ON BITCOIN FROM A FUNDAMENTAL-MACRO PERSPECTIVE ?
✅ Exchange reserve is a collective measure of potential coins that are ready to be sold in the market.
Exchange Reserve is the accumulated result of Exchange In/Outflow & Netflow which naturally follows the indications that in/outflow has. Similar to Exchange NetFlow's interpretation, an increasing trend in netflow indicates the selling pressure and the decreasing trend indicates the buying pressure.
However, instead of Exchange In/Outflow & Netflow indicating the specific moment or period, Exchange Reserve is easy to track the result of the entire period's movements
✅ It indicates the degree of accumulated selling pressure in the exchange
High : High selling pressure
A large number of coins are staying in the exchange to be traded indicating high selling pressure
Low : Low selling pressure
A Small number of coins are staying in the exchange to be traded indicating low selling pressure
✅ It shows the changing status in scarcity
Increasing trend: Decreasing scarcity -Bearish
More coins are available in the exchange indicating decreasing scarcity of coins that are being traded which supports bearish movement
Decreasing trend: Increasing scarcity - Bullish
Fewer coins are available in the exchange indicating increasing scarcity of coins that are being traded which supports bullish movement
How To Use: VOLUME PROFILE + FIBSEducational Video on how I #TrendFollow using Fibonacci and fixed volume profiles.
Key Points -
1. Find an impulse and a peak/momentum shift.
2. Place Volume Profile & Fibs in the correct area.
3. Where the Fibs + VP coincide, will garner the likeliest probability of a bounce.
📌TOP Patterns you should know when Trading in any market❗❗You may have thought that the chart of an asset you were analyzing was starting to look just like another asset. Could this mean the outcomes would be the same?
Well, they definitely can be. The market is full of patterns and similar structures that traders often use for forecasting future price action. Many of these common patterns, ranging from triangles and rectangles, to wedges and head and shoulders can often determine if a market will continue to rise upon breakout, or drop once the price breaks down.
🔰How Do I Trade These Patterns?❗
If you come across a pattern that looks similar to one on the infographic, draw some support / resistance trendlines.
The main idea behind trading patterns is just like support and resistances. If you’re trading with the trendlines, you’d buy at support and sell at resistance. If you’re trading against, you’d buy when price action breaks through the resistance, and sell when it breaks through the support. Remember that hindsight makes these look easier than they actually are, and is why I stress the point that multiple tools should be used to confirm your analysis.
Sounds Easy?❗😀😄
Don’t be fooled. Trading is not as easy as this, and is a discipline that requires extensive learning. The truth is that 90% of traders lose money. However, with proper training and money management, you are able to be in the 10% that do not. Always have a trading plan, use stop-losses to cut your losses and move on, and never trade greedily.
AMD Trading Pattern 📉📉📉📈 To increase your chance of succeding in the financial markets as a trader you should understand what the market phases is and the logic behind this concept.
🔰 Accumulation - tipically accumulation is a range area where price forms equal highs and lows, from an institutional perspective we can see this zone as a clash between sellers and buyers usually after a accumulation move price will move sharply into a direction
🔰 Manipulation - manipulation aka the FAKE move will be the first move that exists the range in 80% of the situations the first move is just a move to trap retailers go into a certain direction and then quickly reverses, usually the manipulation happens during LN open (London) NY open ( New York ) NYSE open ( Nasdaq ) and the accumulation move forms during asian session especially for fx pairs
🔰 Distribution - distribution is the moment when price takes the opposite direction of the MANIPULATION it is offten called the TRUE DIRECTION of the DAY where its generally raided by institutions because retail traders were trapped in the manipulation phase.
Was this a valuable information ?
Market Strucutre 📉📉📉✅ MARKET STRUCUTURE .
Today we will talk about market strucutre in the financial markets, market strucuture is basicall the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Strucuture
🎯 Bearish Market Strucuture - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
🎯 Bullish Market Strucutre - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
🎯 Range Market Strucutre - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope i was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual strucutre
Inside Bar Candlestick Pattern📉📉📉We will cover the following today:
Inside Bar (Inside Day)
Inside Days
✅ Inside Days are a daily pattern involving two daily candles, we have a day of trade, also known as the ‘mother candle’ and then the following day trades the whole day within the range of the previous day. This is a two-day bias suggesting a potential reversal. A great way to play these sorts of biases is to pre-empt the failure of this reversal, as well as playing the success of the inside day, so what does this look like? Let’s take a look at an example below.
✅ What is an inside bar?
The inside bar is a popular reversal/continuation candle formation that only requires two candles to present itself. This pattern is a direct play on short-term market sentiment looking to enter before the 'big moves' that may take place in the market.
✅ Is an inside bar bullish?
First, unlike other candlestick patterns, inside bars are usually not distinguished as bullish and bearish by their look or color of the body itself, but rather by the location they are at and other peripheral developments
✅ An “inside bar” pattern is a two-bar price action trading strategy in which the inside bar is smaller and within the high to low range of the prior bar, i.e. the high is lower than the previous bar's high, and the low is higher than the previous bar's low.
📈 HOW TO IDENTIFY AN INSIDE BAR ON FOREX CHARTS
The following steps are used when identifying the inside bar pattern on forex charts:
Identify a preceding trend using price action/technical indicators
Locate inside bar pattern whereby the inside bar is engulfed fully by the preceding candle high and low
📌Fibonacci & FIBO retracement❗✳️The author of the Fibonacci series of numbers was the Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano. The series has been known for centuries for this series of numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 and so on until infinity. The number is calculated by the sum of the two previous numbers.
This numerical relationship has also been used on the financial markets for a century.The number Phi is of particular importance. Phi was created from the golden ratio. The golden ratio is the ratio of two numbers, the higher number is the numerator and the lower number is the denominator. The result is always around 1.618. Below is an example:
a = 0.618
b = 0.382
0.618/0.382 = 1.618
Golden Ratio: 0.618 + 0.382 = 1,000
🔶🔷It's all about resistance and support:
The Fibonacci retracement is a method of finding potential resistance and support zones in an underlying asset. It is based on the idea that a predetermined portion of a move from a price will bounce back. After that, the price will continue in the “real” direction. Often a correction corrects a Fibonacci percentage of a previous wave. From experience, the most common retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. These levels are watched by most analysts because they represent potential market reversal points.
🔴As an example, this chart depicts the rally of BITCOIN towards its ATH . The price drops right back to the 23.6%, after which the price stabilizes and continues in the uptrend
🔵The next chart shows the ETHUSDT on the 4H chart. As we see, the price is going back to the 23.6% and then 38.2% zone, but it failed to stabilize and falls to the next 50% retracement level and returned . Prices recovered and made a new high, continuing the previous uptrend.
⚪Fibonacci Analysis allows you to determine the support and resistance levels of a price correction and more importantly helps you find price targets and potential reversal points Almost in any market
for instance in the past rally for ADAUSDT, I used Fibonacci to determine the possible targets, and it exactly worked:🎯🏹
🔰How to draw Fibonacci retracements on the chart:
It is best to use candlestick shadows so that the analysis includes the extremes of market sentiment. Most of the time the difference is not significant, but sometimes it is crucial. The example below shows how the Fibonacci retracement was drawn to the shadows of the candlesticks from the trend low to high.
The measurement should be in the same direction as the price movement. After the measurement, the horizontal lines can be seen in the chart. These lines are potential support and resistance levels.
🔰Fibonacci retracement as part of trading strategy:
Fibonacci retracements can be very efficient for timing a trend. This method is often used by traders as part of trend strategy. With this strategy, traders monitor key price levels within a trend. This means they buy when the market is going up and sell when it is going down. Traders try to place orders in the same direction as the original trend (less risk). In this scenario, you assume that the price has a certain probability of bouncing off the Fibonacci levels and moving back in the direction of the main trend. In our example, the price dropped to the 38.2% level before correcting again. The probability of a turning point in the market increases sharply,
🔰Powerful and sometimes useful:
Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool and useful because it often marks reversal points with uncanny accuracy. Because of this, it should be used in conjunction with other indicators to identify potential trading opportunities. also There are five types of trading tools that are based on Fibonacci's discovery: arcs, fans, retracements, extensions, and time zones and ... . The lines created by these Fibonacci studies are believed to signal changes in trends as the prices draw near them.