BTC/USDT :: Descending, but in what way !?BTC/USDT :::
<<< The general trend is downward >>>
First mode :
for a while the upward trend and hitting the resistance range of 34,000$ to 40,000$ and finally the downward trend .
The second mode :
The downward trend is integrated with short-term corrections .
In general, it depends on the direction of the triangle break .
<<<< Top ? Or Down ? >>>>
Harmonic Patterns
PRICE CHANNELS: A simple but very important trading tool1. WHAT IS A PRICE CHANNEL?
On any chart, you can see that the price is moving in a trading range bounded from above and below, and this range is a price channel. They can be ascending, descending or sideways (ranges). Ascending channels are formed with an uptrend, Descending channels are formed with a downtrend, Lateral channels are formed at intervals when the price moves in a horizontal range.
2. WHICH CHANNELS ARE MORE RELIABLE AND EFFICIENT?
If the price has touched the channel boundaries more than two or three times, it is considered confirmed. If he touched it up to two or three times, the channel is unconfirmed and weak.
In fact, the channel is a derivative of the trend line. The channel boundaries are drawn based on the upper and lower maximum price values (extremes).
To create a connecting price channel, both lines must be parallel, and the number of points must not be less than indicated above. The more often the price touches the channel boundaries, the stronger and more effective the channel will be.
3. WHAT TO DO WITH THE PRICE CHANNEL? HOW TO TRADE IN IT?
Use the bottom line of the uptrend channel to open long positions (to buy) - these are the most profitable signals. The resistance of the ascending channel in this case is the most important point of reference for short-term trades against the trend - from the upper limit of the ascending channel, you can open short positions (sales).
In a falling market, the channel is descending, so a deal against the trend from its lower border will be a long position (buy), and from the upper border in the direction of a downward trend - short positions (sell).
Crossing the channel boundaries may be a signal that the trend continues. This happens when the price breaks through and settles outside the channel boundaries, under or above the channel resistance. When it breaks through the upper limit of the ascending channel, it indicates that the trend is accelerating, and it may make sense for traders to activate purchases or open long positions. If it breaks through the lower boundary of the uptrend channel, it is a signal of a trend reversal, and it is better to open short positions.
The approximate size of the falling price most often corresponds to the width of the range. The situation will be the opposite for a falling market with a descending corridor.
4. HOW TO BUILD A PRICE CHANNEL?
To do this, you need at least three points on the chart.
Two of them define a line of resistance or support, the third should be opposite to the first two.
To build an uptrend channel, we need to understand where the trend movement begins.
Determine from two local gradually ascending minimum points where the trend line should be drawn. These two local points will be the reference points, and the constructed line will be the base support line for the channel.
Then draw another line parallel to the obtained line, which should pass through the highest point of the maximum - the very point opposite to the first two, which is located between the polls.
We do the same for descending price channels - only in this case we draw resistance instead of support, the main line should pass through the highs, and the second trend line should pass through the minimum.
The way to determine if you are dealing with a range is to allow the price to touch both levels, resistance and support, at least twice, and the levels should be horizontal.
5. HOW TO TRADE IN THE PRICE CHANNEL
Trading in a price channel reveals a variety of strategies - trade either inside the channel, buy or sell from resistance or support. Or a breakout of the price channel.
Intra-Channel Trading:
Traders are pushed away from the channel boundaries. There is too high a probability that the price will move inside the channel and push off from its borders. Therefore, it makes sense to sell when the price reaches the upper limit, and buy when it reaches the lower limit.
Trading on breakouts
You need to understand that any channel, depending on the time, will be broken - and at this time there will be a strong price movement, on which the trader can make a big profit.
It is convenient to use pending orders placed above the channel border for trading on a breakout. As soon as the price breaks through the channel boundary and reaches the pending order, it is triggered automatically.
Let's summarize:
Price channels are an excellent basis for trading strategies, as they are based on support and resistance lines.
All channels end with a breakdown depending on the time, so you should not trade without a stop loss when trading inside the channel.
You should not perceive the boundaries of the channel as something indestructible.
The price can easily skip the channel boundary or, conversely, make a false breakthrough.
You can trade inside or outside the channel, and both strategies can be combined.
And most importantly : technical analysis will allow you to always stay on the right side of the market!
Regards! R.Linda!
Lesson 1: The Market-Maker's GameLet's look at how market-makers succeed in trapping you and I in the market to make billions. These techniques, when grasped, can have an immense positive influence in your trading. Market-Makers use areas of support and resistance to accumulate/distribute order blocks. This creates massive liquidity for them to be able extract big profits, leaving the ordinary retail trader holding an empty bag.
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1. Support was broken at the 0.79000 zone. They break support zones like this to trap all the SELLERS. those who placed STOP LOSSES at 0.77400 anticipating price to go down are kicked out of the market before price starts to climb higher and higher. This is the biggest reason why traders wonder why the market kicks them out before it moves in their desired direction. It's as if someone is watching your trades. Well, market-maker can see where most STOP LOSS orders are placed. They push the price to those levels to wipe traders' positions.
2. The maker-maker's intention is to take the price up without being too transparent. Their intention is to make you believe that price is headed downwards when in fact it's going up. Their first target in this case is the 0.98000 zone. When price gets to that zone both BUYERS and SELLERS will be shaken off the market so that they can take the price up some more to the 1.2500 zone (3).
3. At 1.25000 more manipulation will take place. At that price level a lot of amateur retail traders will be thinking that price is still going up. What ensues then is a big drop. Maker-makers would have now trapped BUYERS to create liquidity for taking the price down.
This is critical to understand. If you can trade how MARKET-MAKERS are trading you'd be able to extract profits off the markets on a consistent basis.
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Do drop questions in the comments section. I will be ready to answer.
FCXA Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart
Smart Money Manipulation 🥊Alkaline is back baby! 💣
As smart money concepts gain popularity, liquidity increases.
I have taken a month away from trading to study the new forms of market manipulation and have been pleasantly surprised by what I have found.
Here is my discovery:
1) The market is currently focusing on taking liquidity from breakeven positions over fixed stop losses.
This is because emotional traders put their stops to BE quickly to avoid pain, especially during indecisive markets.
2) Order blocks are the perfect manipulation areas.
If you take time out to backtest significant order blocks, you will notice price will tap and lure or simply sweep above/below the zone before going in the intended direction.
3) That tight stop loss you are using is doing more damage than good.
Scale into your positions, trust me when I say this will reduce your emotions and give you a more relaxed trading style.
4) Use your brain, even if you are in denial.
If the majority of traders lose money, and the majority of traders now use smart money concepts, do the maths.
It feels good to be back after a long month of studying, I have lots of new things to teach and share.
I will be taking on new students shortly, have a great weekend everyone 👋
MarketMaking and MarketMaker. What is it and who is it?All participants in financial exchanges can be divided into two categories - market makers, who set the mood in the market, and market makers, private investors with small capital.
Market makers ( they are in minority ) will always manipulate market makers ( they are in majority ).
What is a market maker, who he is, what he does at the exchange and why he is needed?
WHO IS A MARKET MAKER AT THE STOCK EXCHANGE?
This is a professional in the market with very large money, without whom trading is impossible - because this figure is considered a key player in the market and moves the price. Most often, this is the whole financial organization.
MARKETMAKER is the one who creates and maintains the liquidity level of exchange , currency , cryptocurrency , futures instruments , etc.
It is only possible to make transactions on the market through the market maker, who regulates the processes so that the exchange is not dominated by only sellers or buyers.
The MARKETMAKER is obliged to buy even if the market is dominated by sellers and even if it leads to losses. And when the market is dominated by buyers, the market maker must sell in order to balance the market. The main purpose of the market maker is not to make money, but to regulate supply and demand, to maintain liquidity.
CATEGORIES OF MARKETMAKERS
Large commercial banks, but not by themselves, but united in groups: they are called institutional market makers.
Brokerage companies
Dealing centers
Investment funds
Private investors with significant capital.
WHY DO WE NEED A MARKETMAKER?
It stabilizes the market, controls price movements, satisfies traders' demand. And since large financial institutions take on this role, they can be both sellers and buyers.
The market maker makes a huge number of deals every day and ensures the liquidity of assets.
The peculiarity of their work is that market makers can support the quote both in the buy and sell direction simultaneously on the same financial instrument, which makes the price move more smoothly and price gaps disappear.
TASKS OF MARKET MAKERS
Ensure profitable deals for all participants
To maintain sufficient liquidity for any instrument throughout the trading session
To accumulate orders within the instrument being traded
Find and consolidate the best price offers and record them in the price book
Provide all participants with information on current quotes as soon as possible
WHAT AND HOW DO MARKET MAKERS MAKE MONEY?
The best way to make money on the exchange is to be able to correctly predict large price movements and timely open positions in this direction.
No market maker can do it on a large scale, but a small impulse is enough to start the process of a large price movement. And for this market maker first forms a trend in the direction he needs, after which he acts in the opposite direction. Thus, the market maker makes a profit, while other participants lose more or less.
Since market makers are the first to review current orders, they are the first to find out about the emergence of a trend in one direction or another and do everything necessary to balance the market and not allow a large surge of volatility. For the fact that he keeps the market price of the instrument in the predetermined limits, the market maker receives a significant discount on the commissions. And his profit is the difference between the bid and ask prices, which is called the dealing spread.
Because the exchange is interested in maintaining the liquidity of assets, it encourages healthy competition and advocates the presence of several market makers on one floor. It reduces the cost of transactions, increases the speed of transactions and makes pricing transparent. Even the exchange rules often contain a clause that a deal is legal if a market maker is involved, i.e. it is quite a significant and influential market player.
HOW DOES THE MARKET MAKER WORK?
He establishes a connection with his clients through a program, analyzes the market and executes orders of his broker's clients. Often he prefers to work with mid-sized brokers to have the necessary volume of transactions to make money.
Marketmaking. Order-Making and Order-Making.
The function of Order-Making is to watch a particular company's stock and make predictions. Order-taking is to execute traders' orders and take additional profits.
HOW DOES PROFIT TAKING TAKE PLACE?
Like other market participants, market makers can also incur losses, which occurs if a position is chosen incorrectly. But due to the fact that market makers work with large volumes of trades and a large number of clients, they always have an opportunity to cover their losses.
Regards! R.Linda!
Wyckoff accumulation + gartley pattern We can notice an accumulation phase in the market. Pay attention at the spring, if you zoom in the chart you can see that the low of the spring has broken the low of selling climax and that is a perfect liquidity grab used by istitutionals to open their big long positions.
Then you can see the gartley pattern that worked perfectly, now I expect a retracment and a continuation of the new uptrend
How to correctly mark out your S/R on the 4H timeframe.Quick educational video showing you how i personally like to mark out my 4H chart into clear zones in which price can move to and from, setting out the 4Hrly like so will give us clarity on the LTF and can help with entries targets and stops.
If you enjoyed the video and would like us to post more educational tips hit the thumbs up.
LEARN HARMONIC PATTERNS TRADING | ABCD PATTERN 🔰
Hey traders,
Harmonic ABCD pattern is a classic reversal pattern.
This pattern is composed of 3 main elements (based on wicks of the candles):
1️⃣ AB leg
2️⃣ BC leg
3️⃣ CD leg
The pattern is considered to be bullish if AB leg is bearish.
The pattern is considered to be bearish if AB leg is bullish.
AB leg must be a strong movement without corrections within.
A is its initial point and B is its completion point.
BC leg is a correctional movement from B point after a completion of AB leg. The price may fluctuate within that.
B is its initial point and C is its completion point.
CD leg must be a strong movement without corrections within.
C is its initial point and D is its completion point.
❗️ABCD movement is harmonic if the length and the time horizon of AB and CD legs are equal.
By the length, I mean a price change from A to B point and from C to D point.
By the time, I mean a time ranges of AB leg and CD leg.
If the time and length of AB and CD legs are equal, the pattern is considered to be harmonic, and a reversal will be expected from D point at least to B point.
🛑If the pattern is bullish, stop loss must be placed below D point.
🛑If the pattern is bearish, stop loss is placed above D point.
Initial target level is B point.
Usually, after reaching a B point the market returns to a global trend.
What pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
LUNA/USDT ----> TUTORIAL (when and why take position ) HI guys we have some questions and now answer that. if you have any idea , you can comment .
answers:
1 and 2 : if we had a strong sell movement it couldn't brake it without any react !! and now if it had broken it would pullback on that level.
(caution : the price goes everywhere finally it has to ( again i repeat it : it has to) pullback that level. and why it has to pull back you must find answer on supply and demand orders.
3: when you have strong movement it hasn't enough time to settled price level but anyway it settle on another time.
4:thats joking if you think Russian or Ukraine people buy and price grows whenever other currency were approximately constant. the answer is exchanger and market makers. but why? they are take profit with 2 strategy. one ,take profit with liquid novice trader with raising unexpected price for many times . two ,they bought on 40$ level and now price is above 90$ so they need time to sell. and they may make another trap for trader they brake the highest historical price and when novice traders were trapped exchanger and professional trader take sell position.
conclusion :
when you see enough reasons for take buy position or sell position and price have enough distance from your levels find entry situation and DONT FORGET MONEYMANAGEMENT then take a your position that's not important after that price go where you just need money management and wait.
be profitable.
EDUCATIONHey guys. I wanna share u today some smart things to trader liquidity and supply zone.
As we see some examples of liquidity in both cases when the price is in a bullish trend or bearish.
if you like the learning content.
don´t forget to tell me in the comments and I will help you build a profitable trading strategy.
Thank you.
[Candlestick Patterns] Just need to know these three!#Candlestick #CandlePattern #Tocademy #Tutorial
Hello traders from all over the world, this is HAMZA_ZDH=)
I was unexpectedly surprised by many of you who liked and supported my last post about the basic concept of TA( Technical Analysis ). Today I prepared a brief lecture about the Candlestick Pattern, one of the most fundamental phenomenon and behaviors that traders must be well-informed. In fact, we should be very familiar with these textbook contents and interpret it in a glimpse on the technical chart unconsciously. Just like we don't pay direct attention about each breathes when breathing, like we don't care each and all of the alphabets when we speak, or like we don’t perceive location of each keyboards every moment as we type, this very technique should be performed automatically and quickly by observing dominant formations of candlestick bars.
As a matter of fact, comprehending market trends and price actions only by referring to the candlesticks is yet too spurious. It should be used in such a way to weight on certain scenarios in a macroscopic view, rather than deriving precise and specific PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone)s and distinguish the accurate market trend. It’s never like ‘The price must go up because this pattern just appeared’. Furthermore, I strongly believe that the reliability of the candlestick pattern strategy is declining especially in recent financial market, where we encounter countless non-traditional and abnormal situations that were not very common in the past. Hence among the existing ‘Textbook’ candlestick pattern strategies that can easily be found on Google , there are particular patterns that are still very reliable on current market and there are ones that are not as reliable as it used to be. So here, I will organize everything very clearly for you guys.
A Investor Story That Nobody Heard AboutThis is a fictionalized story about a lady who enjoyed great success throughout her life, investing in the stock market using a simple “Buy and Hold” approach. This article not only tells us how and why she succeeded but how you too can easily master and exploit this truly amazing strategy .
Many of us have known or at least heard about someone like Aunt Betsey (if you dont know its ok) She was a kind, good natured person of somewhat eccentric character who, for reasons best known to herself, had never married or entered into any kind of committed relationship. She lived her life alone, comfortably but modestly. When she retired at the mandatory age of 65, she owned a 2 bedroom apartment in what had become a fashionable inner suburb plus a significant portfolio of shares in a dozen or so “substantial” companies.
Betsey simply saved some of her wages each week and every few years, when her bank account had built up to a sizable amount, went out and bought another parcel of shares in a company of her choosing.
Betsey never sold any of her shares. She simply filled them away with any correspondence under “S” in the small filling cabinet that stood beside a well-crafted oak writing desk in her fussy living room.
When dividend cheques arrived she deposited them into her savings account which in the course of time found their way back into further share purchases.
Betsey didn’t really know much about the share market, in fact she wasn’t even really interested in it. Her sole motivation for this lifelong habit was that her father had once told her that putting her surplus money into shares was a prudent thing to do. One of the qualities that Betsey valued highly was prudence.
When it came time to buy another share parcel, she simply browsed through a couple of stock market magazines during her lunch break at one of the news agencies that provided her long term employment. She jotted down the names of any shares that caught her attention in the small notebook she always carried in her handbag. Most of the stock market jargon in the magazine went way above her head, but that didn’t really faze Betsey. Her final solitary selection on each occasion was made after a judicious reading of the tea leaves at the completion of her evening meal.
Betsey passed away at the respectable age of 87, bequeathing a worthwhile inheritance to several nieces and nephews together with a substantial sum to a long favored charity.
The accountant who helped finalise her affairs was impressed by Betsey’s financial achievements. He commented to the executor of the estate that she had done far better than if she had just left her money sitting in her bank savings account.
Like the accountant, a casual observer may have concluded that Betsy had a knack for successful stock picking or if s/he had known the real truth, that reading tea leaves did in fact have some scientific basis to it after all. If nothing else, Betsey’s efforts surely proved the wisdom of having a well balanced portfolio.
Sadly, none of these things are true, although reading tea leaves are probably just as good an indicator for stock picking as input from the majority of expert or professional advisors. A handful of professionals do over time do better than random, while others do far worse. Numerous studies have shown, time and again, that the net results of professional advisers are about the same as tossing a coin.
Another thing that may have attributed to Betsey’s success was her market timing. Her entry signal that triggered a stock purchase occurred only when her bank account had reached a certain level.
By being totally oblivious to what the markets were doing she inadvertently insulated herself from the generally losing game of trying to pick the tops and bottoms that both amateurs and professionals tend to get caught up in.
Many people, who think they understand randomness, are often very surprised by the way it often pans out in practice.
A typical response to encountering a proven random result for the first time is “I didn’t think that luck could be responsible for such a wide range of outcomes” . For example it would have been perfectly reasonable for Aunt Betsey to have finished up with a portfolio of 9 losing stocks and 3 winners with just one of those winners responsible for nearly all her profits. If that is so, people will then often ask how one goes about picking these big winners. The answer is you can’t. It is just a matter of luck. Many however, struggle to accept that explanation and attempt to attribute other supposedly rational causes to essentially random events and outcomes.
There is a mathematical law in statistics known as the Law of Large Numbers. This law is frequently broken, not just in financial markets but in many other areas of life where statistics are used or quoted in an attempt to make sense of numerical data. The breaking of this law leads to the heinous Crime of Small Samples, committed frequently by traders and investors. In simple terms it means attempting to draw conclusions from inadequate sized data samples. This in turn leads to misleading or incorrect conclusions.
Aunt Betsey’s 12 stocks are a very small sample indeed and no explanation, other than a run of good luck, could be rationally drawn from her results.
For every person like Betsy who did well, there is another untold story about someone who would have been better off simply leaving their money in the bank.
Nobody tells these stories because nobody wants to hear about those who lose. This results is a steady source of “good news” informational bias which is passed on ad nauseam by market professionals and others.
This leads to people developing unrealistic beliefs, hopes and aspirations.
How to calculate a trading lot. Why is it worth knowing?Many traders, beginners and not only do not know how to calculate the lot and act in practice not selectively and illiterately
Let's examine what a lot is, how much it costs and how to calculate it:
We will calculate by the old quotation system (four decimal places).
The cost of lots in forex:
The size of each position opened by a trader is measured in lots
Standard 1.0 lot = $100,000
Mini lot 0.10 = $10,000
Micro lot 0.01 = $1,000
*This size is always a constant value, independent of currency rates.
*Leverage does not affect the calculation of the lot
High leverage will only allow more lots to be opened.
How to calculate the lot:
Calculating the lot by yourself will give the trader a conscious understanding of possible losses, which is necessary for evaluating the situation, strategy and risks. This requires to know the pip value in any lot size
Then, a trader won't care about the leverage size and won't need to know the number of currency units in a lot at all.
Let's look at calculation of lot size as an example:
Let's assume that the EURUSD chart shows a long entry price of 1.0251 .
The trader needs to place a stop-loss, but he must know the amount of possible future losses on this trade, if a protective order triggers.
As we know from theory, a stop-loss order should be placed
Below the minimum/maximums;
A fixed value using indicators or Expert Advisors.
We measure the size from the current position to the lower tail of the candle, we get 25 points.
We add a small reserve of 7 points to prevent the downward breakout from accidentally catching the stop loss and obtain 32 points.
This stop loss should be subtracted from the current price.
We multiply the quote by 10000 for convenience and obtain 10251 - 32 = 10219 .
We divide it back by 10000 and get 1.0219 (this is the stop-loss quote) and set our stop-loss at 1.0219
For ease of risk calculation we should always take the lot size 0.1 .
For a 0.1 lot one pip of price movement is approximately worth $ 1 ,
for a micro lot 0.01 the cost per pip would be 10 cents,
for a whole 1.0 lot it would be $ 10
Why is it easier to start with 0.1 lot?
It is very easy for a trader to calculate that 32 points of stop loss in our example would cost him $ 32 in losses. This is quite reasonable for a $ 1000 deposit.
It is easy to think how much his potential loss will be worth, for example at 0.07 lots:
32 points at 0.1 lot costs $ 32 ,
at 0.01 lot ten times less - $ 3.2 . At lot 0.07 : 3.2 x 7 = $ 22.4 .
Harmonic PatternsHarmonic Patterns
we have so many kinds of “Harmonic Pattern”:
Black Swan
Bat
Crab
Butterfly
Gartly
White Swan
Shark
Zero_Five
Cypher
Double Top
Double Bottom
📚👌🏻 Each one of them has its unique Fibonacci levels.
⚡️ Do you want to know them?
😍 Happy to see what you find in the charts, please share yours with us
XAUUSD:Playing with lines,Part 6Hello friends
..Based on the chart we can play with lines and patterns
.In this method we learn how to trade with lines and patterns
.Price reacts beautifully to lines and patterns
.We compete with big computers and artificial intelligence in analysis
.Repetition is important to us
.Analysis is like a series. Continue from wherever you start to the end
.important points:
.New York close time is important to us
.Breakout and pullback trend lines are important
.High and Low of the previous days are important for us
.Times M5 and M1are important
.This method has no limitations. We can use it in all markets
.Follow us for more training and analysis
HOW-TO: Use external filters on Auto Harmonic Pattern UltimateXHello Everyone,
In this video, I have explained following things:
1. What is a filter indicator and how it can be used
2. Example demonstration of Relative Bandwidth Filter to define trade no-trade zones based on volatility.
3. How to use filters along with Auto Harmonic Pattern UltimateX or any other script which follows similar design for external filters.
4. How to develop your own filter based on different conditions which can be used with AHPUx or other scripts which are designed to use the Filters.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Explanation | the US Federal Reserve conference is of great impoAt the Jackson Hole conference, financial markets will keenly watch if US Fed chair Jerome Powell mentions the word taper in his speech and whether US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has anything to say on the interlinkages between fiscal and monetary policy
The financial media and markets will be buzzing for the next few weeks over the Jackson Hole conference. It is an important economics conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserves created by the United States government. There is a history of important policy decisions unveiled at the Jackson Hole conference with implications for world markets. Here’s a lowdown.
What is the Jackson Hole?
In 1978, Kansas City Fed started organising an economics conference, and in 1982 moved the conference location to a valley named Jackson Hole (JH) in the Wyoming state. The annual conference has been held in the last days of August for quite some time now.
What is the history behind it?
Jackson Hole started as any other economics conference. The first four conferences were on agriculture, given the importance of the sector in this part of the US. In 1982, it organised the first conference on the monetary policy theme titled ‘Monetary Policy Issues in the 1980s’.
The 1982 conference was attended by then Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, which set a precedent of sorts as most subsequent conferences were attended by the Fed chairpersons/senior officials. In 1982, the conference was attended by eminent macroeconomists and monetary policy scholars such as James Tobin (Nobel Prize in 1985), John Taylor (of Taylor Rule), William Poole (who became head of San Francisco Fed later), and so on.
In 1989, then Fed chair Alan Greenspan also made a speech at the conference. This added to its aura as now it was not just about the attendance of the US Fed chair but also about the remarks/speeches at the conference.
As linkages between monetary policy and financial markets deepened post-1990s, market participants started tracking the Fed chair’s remarks to figure the direction of the monetary policy.
Since 1982, the conference has been held 41 times including the 2021 edition. The theme has usually been around macroeconomics, monetary policy, long-term growth and policy, including the 2021 theme on ‘Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy’.
In 1990, the conference on ‘Monetary Policy Issues in the 1990's’ had representations from the erstwhile USSR, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria.
Gradually, the forum was attended by governors and central bankers from major advanced economies in Europe and Asia. This led to the financial markets in these respective economies tracking speeches and remarks from both global central bankers and representatives of their country’s central banks.
What makes Jackson Hole so special?
In many cases, it sets the agenda for monetary policy and shaped star economists.
The 1996 edition raised the importance of price stability. The 1999 edition highlighted the interaction of monetary policy with asset markets.
The 2005 edition was a swansong for Greenspan where his policies were praised only to be tarnished during the 2008 crisis.
The 2007 edition focused on housing and monetary policy where chair Ben Bernanke expressed confidence that the subprime housing markets are unlikely to lead to a crisis only to be proven wrong a year later.
The 2008 crisis led to increased attention on financial stability which was the theme in both the 2008 and 2009 editions.
In recent years as monetary policy has struggled to elevate inflation to the 2 percent target (for the US), there have been discussions on unconventional monetary policy (2013), designing resilient monetary policy frameworks (2016), monetary policy challenges in the next decade (both 2010 and 2020).
In 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell released a new monetary policy framework named Average Inflation targeting which has become a major discussion point amidst the central banking research community.
The conference even catapulted the careers of economists. The name that comes to mind is that of Raghuram Rajan who had questioned the financial market developments in the Greenspan swansong edition in 2005. Rajan was dubbed a ‘luddite’ then but had the last laugh as the 2008 financial crisis engulfed the world economy.
What should we expect from the 2021 edition?
The theme of the 2021 conference is ‘Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy’. The global economy has been highly uneven due to the pandemic shock with rising inflation amidst stagnant growth prospects.
Conference watchers will keenly follow this edition as it is expected to be attended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Powell. This is rare as usually, the treasury secretaries do not attend the conference. Yellen is no stranger to Jackson Hole as she was the chairperson before Powell, and has been a chief speaker at the conference. If both attend and speak, it will be interesting as both the guardians of fiscal policy (Treasury) and monetary policy (Federal Reserve) will get together to provide solutions to the uneven economy.
They have to answer some big questions facing the US economy which will also impact the world economy. The foremost question is whether the fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to remain in the US economy, and for how long.
The financial markets in emerging markets will see if Powell mentions the word taper in his speech and whether Yellen has anything to say on the interlinkages between fiscal and monetary policy.
Why you need exit strategy ???It was March 7th when I published my first VLO analysis:
I revised my target price to 140 on April 26:
then VLO went up to 148
+84% in less than 100 days..!
Now you see the highest ever revenue and learning per share, but the price is 25% below its All time high???
Why?
Maybe the best answer is provided by George Soros:
The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
Best,
XAUUSD : M15:Playing with lines, part twoHello friends
.Based on the chart we can play with lines and patterns
.New York close time is important to us
.Breakout and pullback trend lines are important
.HH and LL of the previous days are important for us
.Times M5 and M1are important
.This method has no limitations. We can use it in all markets
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RULE#1: patience as key to success 📉In trading, research has shown that one of the reasons why most people are unsuccessful in trading is because of their in ability to follow process, to wait patiently to "check out the checklist" which when neglected can lead to some serious losses. Your ability and Willingness to wait ; not losing one's temper while waiting will help you not to only be successful but to also be consistent in your trading career.
HOW DO ONE BECOME A PATIENT TRADER ?
My dear friends, there's no other way than to discipline yourself; write out your goals/ checklist in line with your winning strategy. So that when the market does not meet your requirements, you let it go and wait for the next one.
Remember this "But if we hope for what we do not see, we wait for it with patience."