Indicator Insights Part 2: Managing Trades with Parabolic SARTrade management is tough. You’re having to make split second decisions with hard-earned money on the line. There is a great deal of column inches dedicated to trade entry, but consistent and effective trade management is often what makes or breaks a trading account.
In this second instalment of our Indicator Insights series, we’ll turn our attention to the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) and explain how it can be used as a consistent trade management tool.
We’ll highlight what makes the Parabolic SAR so effective, outline its limitations, and run through several techniques designed to maximise its effectiveness.
Understanding Parabolic SAR
The Parabolic SAR offers dynamic trade management by creating dots above or below the price. Its calculation, involving an Acceleration Factor and Extreme Point, allows for adaptive trailing stop-loss levels that adjust with price movements. We won’t delve into the calculations, but here’s a bit more background on the factors that create the Parabolic SAR.
Acceleration Factor:
Think of the acceleration factor like a speed dial. It starts slow and increases its speed gradually. This 'speed' decides how quickly the dots (trailing stops) move closer to the price when a trend strengthens.
Extreme Point:
The Extreme Point is like a highlighter for the highest high or lowest low seen so far in a trend. It marks that special point, and as the trend progresses, this point changes based on new highs or lows.
Standard Settings:
By default, the Parabolic SAR often starts with an initial AF value of 0.02, which increases by 0.02 each time a new high (or low for downtrends) happens. This increase continues up to a maximum value, commonly set at 0.20. These settings decide how fast the dots move and how close they stay to the price.
Parabolic SAR at Standard Settings
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Dynamic Stop Management
The Parabolic SAR is a one-stop-shop for dynamic stop placement. It can be used to tell you where to place your initial stop loss, and where to move your stop loss as the trade progresses.
Advantages:
Objective Trade Management
Emotion Mitigation: During live trades, emotions run high. Parabolic SAR offers objective guidance by providing clear stop levels, reducing emotional decision-making during volatile market movements.
Adaptability to Market Volatility
Volatility Adjustment: Parabolic SAR's adaptability to market volatility stands out. Its dynamic nature adjusts stop-loss levels based on market fluctuations, accommodating both rapid and gradual price movements.
Limitations:
Delayed Response and Choppy Markets
Lagging Indicator: Parabolic SAR's reliance on past price data can result in delayed responses to recent price changes, making it a lagging indicator.
Choppy Market Performance: In choppy or sideways markets, where price movements lack a clear trend, Parabolic SAR can generate false signals, leading to ineffective trade management strategies.
Managing Trades Using Parabolic SAR
To effectively use Parabolic SAR as a trade management tool, it is essential that the indictor compliments your trade entry method.
Remember, the Parabolic SAR has a time lag and performs best in trending markets, hence it favours a momentum-based entry method such has entering on a breakout from a consolidation pattern in the direction of the dominant trend.
However, there is an advanced technique which allows you to use the Parabolic SAR to manage reversal trades by dropping down to a lower timeframe. Let’s look at both techniques in more detail…
Basic Technique: Single Timeframe
The most straightforward method is to use the Parabolic SAR on the same timeframe as your entry.
Your initial stop is placed at the location of the Parabolic SAR dot above/below your entry candle. Your stop is then trailed to every new dot that appears – locking in profits as the trend progresses. The trade is closed when your stop is hit or when the dots switch sides.
Worked Example: Range Breakout
In this example we have a range breakout in-line with the dominant trend. The Parabolic SAR can is used for initial stop placement and as a dynamic trailing stop loss. Notice how the stop loss is tightened more aggressively as the trend starts to lose momentum – this is a key advantage to using the Parabolic SAR.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
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Advanced Technique: Dual Timeframe
A more advanced method allows you to utilise Parabolic SAR’s consistent and dynamic trailing stops when managing counter-momentum reversal trades. It involves using the Parabolic SAR on a lower timeframe with a view to ‘swinging’ in and out of lower timeframe trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trade setup.
This method has the advantage of offering potentially higher levels of risk / reward, but it requires a higher degree of skill and experience as traders must be considerably more active when managing the trade.
Worked Example: Daily Fakeout, Hourly Trade Management
In this example, a fakeout pattern forms at a clear level of support on the daily candle chart:
Nvidia (NVDA) Higher Timeframe: Daily Candle Chart
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The trade can be actively managed using the Parabolic SAR on the hourly candle chart. Notice the potential for re-entering the trade – the Parabolic SAR can be used to take momentum-based lower timeframe trades that align with a higher timeframe catalyst.
Nvidia (NVDA) Lower Timeframe: Hourly Candle Chart
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Summary:
The Parabolic SAR helps to remove the stress from trade management. It provides traders with an objective and consistent rule set that dynamically adjusts to the volatility of the market. The Parabolic SAR compliments momentum-based trading strategies and can help to manage risk as a trade progresses. It can also be used on a lower timeframe to compliment counter-momentum trades on a higher timeframe.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Harmonic Patterns
ICT Order Block Trading Strategy : Asian Session Liquidity SweepASIAN Session Liquidity Sweep Model
Mark High and Low created in Asian Session.
1. Upon starting of London Session it sweep Asian Session liquidity and closed price below Asian Session High.
2. Created Bearish OB.
3. Sell side imbalance in form of FVG.
So we have three confluences
i.e. Liquidity Sweep + OB + FVG
Remember these three are confirmation for trend or break out direction.
How Order Blocks WorkOnce you have drawn Order Block on Daily
time frame now move to lower time frame
like 1H , 30 M or lower,
you can see it started creating bullish candles.
In this particular case a popular bullish
candlestick pattern three white soldiers
formed at 30 M time frame indicting potential reversal in trend.
Bearish Order Block: A Thorough Analysis in 2024
Identify bearish order block as mentioned in previous post.
Go to lower time frame to check consolidation phase and mark its support level.
Check point where price went below support level and comeback to retest.
Enter short trade once it breaks below again.
so now we have 4 confluences for short entry.
1. 4 Hour's Bearish OB
2. Price Consolidation at lower time frame.
3. Retest of price
4. Breakout in short direction.
Identification of Order Bearish BlocksExplaning the Bearish Order Block
A bearish order block is a price area on a chart that indicates a potential sell opportunity because it suggests a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It's essentially a zone where a large number of sell orders were placed, creating a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.
Understanding the Perfect Buy Point in Swing TradingIntroduction
Swing trading is a strategy that traders use to capitalize on the "swing" or change in the prices of stocks. It involves holding a stock for a period ranging from a few days to several weeks to profit from price changes or 'swings'. A critical aspect of swing trading is identifying the perfect buy point (PBP), which is the most opportune moment to enter a trade.
The Concept of Perfect Buy Point (PBP)
The Perfect Buy Point is the price level at which the probability of gain is significantly higher than the risk of loss. It's not just about buying at a low price but buying at the right time when a stock is poised to increase in value.
Identifying the Perfect Buy Point
To identify a PBP, swing traders often rely on technical analysis, a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts look for patterns and signals that indicate the momentum is shifting in a way that suggests a move upwards.
Key Patterns for PBP
The Base Pattern (Point A)
The base is a pattern that looks like a consolidation or sideways movement in the price chart. After a decline, the stock begins to round out the bottom, creating a 'U' shape. The PBP occurs when the stock breaks out of this base on the upside with increased volume, signaling the start of a new uptrend.
The Pullback Pattern (Point B)
A pullback occurs after a stock has advanced and then begins to decline slightly. The PBP in this context is identified when the stock finds support and begins to turn upward again. The support level should be noticeable, and the upward turn should come with a surge in volume, confirming the strength of the trend continuation.
Graphic Analysis
In the attached graphic, two scenarios (A & B) illustrate potential PBPs. Each shows a different pattern leading up to the PBP, providing a visual representation of the textual description above.
Factors to Consider
Volume: Look for a significant increase in volume at the PBP. This is an indication that large investors are supporting the move.
Price Action: The stock should move through the buy point decisively, not just inch past it.
Market Environment: It is also essential to consider the overall market trend. Buying during a market uptrend will increase the chances of a successful trade.
Conclusion
The perfect buy point is a moment when the balance of evidence suggests a stock is likely to move higher. It is a combination of price action, volume, and pattern recognition. The graphic provided illustrates two classic scenarios for identifying PBPs. By understanding these concepts and combining them with a disciplined trading approach, you can enhance your ability to make profitable swing trades.
Remember, no matter how effective a strategy, there's always a risk involved in trading. It's crucial to manage your risk and use stop-loss orders to protect your capital.
Price Action for BTC 15-MinuteBecoming the best price action trader in the world requires a combination of in-depth knowledge, experience, and a keen eye for market patterns. Price action trading focuses on the movement of security prices to make trading decisions, rather than relying on technical indicators. Here are several nuanced aspects to focus on in this video tutorial.
Harnessing Harmonics Part 2: Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Welcome back to the second part of our Harmonics series. In this segment, we'll delve deeper into the world of harmonic trading by exploring the power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis.
Understanding how different timeframes align and interact can significantly enhance the precision of harmonic trading strategies.
Understanding Multi-Timeframe Analysis
We mentioned in Part 1 that derivations of the ‘impulse – retracement- impulse’ ABCD pattern repeat itself across all timeframes.
The reason for this is that price is ‘fractal in nature’. A fractal is a type of pattern where the parts resemble to whole, think snowflake or broccoli head, they look like they’re constructed of smaller versions of themselves, and this happens with price.
Those big cycles that take months to complete are replicated in a min-version on lower timeframes every day. Hence, multi-timeframe analysis is simply looking at the same market across multiple timeframes.
Fractal Nature of Price Action
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters:
Harmonic patterns gain strength and reliability when they align across multiple timeframes. This synergy reinforces the potential effectiveness of trade setups and aids in filtering out weaker opportunities.
Confirmation of Patterns: Identifying a harmonic pattern on one timeframe is good, but when it aligns with the same pattern or trend on higher timeframes, it amplifies the signal's strength.
Enhanced Precision: Pinpointing entries and exits becomes more precise when a harmonic pattern on a lower timeframe corresponds with significant support or resistance levels on higher timeframes.
Reduced Noise: Filtering out noise and false signals becomes more achievable when harmonic patterns across different timeframes confirm each other.
Practical Application of Multi-Timeframe Analysis
1. Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
When spotting a harmonic pattern on a lower timeframe, look for confirmation or validation from higher timeframes.
2. Entry and Exit Precision:
Use the higher timeframe for identifying major support or resistance levels that align with the completion of a harmonic pattern on a lower timeframe. This can be pivotal in defining precise entry and exit points for trades.
3. Managing Risk:
Higher timeframes can offer a broader perspective on the market's direction. If a lower timeframe shows a bullish pattern but the higher timeframe indicates a bearish trend, it could signal a higher risk environment, prompting a more cautious approach or tighter risk management.
Example Scenarios:
1. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Hourly ABCD Completion – Daily Trend Confirmation
In this example scenario, EUR/USD has completed a harmonic ABCD move higher on the hourly candle chart. Viewing this pattern on the daily timeframe reveals that the dominant trend is firmly bearish – adding significant weight to the hourly pattern.
EUR/USD 1hr/Daily Timeframes
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4hr Cypher Pattern – Daily Trend Confirmation
Consider a Cypher pattern forming on the 4-hour chart of GBP/USD. Validating this pattern with the daily candle chart reveals confluence with the dominant trend, strengthening the trade setup.
GBP/USD 4hr/Daily Timeframes
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2. Support/Resistance Alignment
Daily ABCD Completion – Weekly Resistance
Spotting an ABCD harmonic completion pattern on the daily chart of Gold, the alignment with multiple resistance levels on the weekly timeframe adds significant weight daily candle pattern.
Gold Daily/Weekly Timeframes
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3. Conflicting Timeframes
1hr Bullish Gartley Pattern – Conflicting Daily Trend
Identifying a bullish Gartley pattern on the 1hr candle chart of GBP/USD but noticing a conflicting trend on the daily chart could signal higher risk, requiring a more cautious approach or potentially avoiding the trade.
GBP/USD 1hr/Daily Timeframes
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
Integrating Multi-Timeframe Analysis into harmonic trading strategies enhances precision, validation, and risk management. Harmonic patterns validated across multiple timeframes provide a more comprehensive and robust framework for making informed trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Harnessing Harmonics Part 1: The Measured MoveWelcome to this two-part series on Harmonics! In this first instalment, we'll delve into the foundational concept of the Measured Move using the ABCD pattern. Understanding this essential structure lays the groundwork for precise trading decisions based on harmonic principles.
Introducing the ABCD Pattern
Price action in any market and on all timeframes tends to move from periods of imbalance in supply and demand to periods of equilibrium. This ebb and flow of price discovery is reflected in the ABCD price pattern – a foundational pattern in harmonics which is an area of technical analysis that seeks to utilise the current volatility of a market to predict turning points.
The ABCD pattern illustrates the ‘impulse, retracement, impulse’ nature of trending price action, it consists of three legs:
AB: The initial leg of the move
BC: A corrective phase following AB
CD: The leg that mirrors AB in direction approx. magnitude
Harmonic ABCD Pattern:
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What is a Measured Move?
The core principle behind the ABCD pattern is that the best approximation of the next phase of directional price movement is the magnitude of the last phase of directional price action. In other words, the best predictor of CD is AB.
A Measured Move is generated by identifying when an AB leg has formed and transposing this AB leg onto the corrective phase at BC.
Understanding the Measured Move within the ABCD pattern serves as a cornerstone for traders seeking to employ harmonic analysis techniques to anticipate market movements with precision.
Measured Move Approximations:
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How to Use the Measured Move:
The Measured Move is a simple concept but can be very powerful when harnessed correctly. In a world in which the vast majority of technical indicators are lagging in nature, the Measured Move is a forward-looking indicator that is calibrated the volatility of each individual market.
Here are the two cleanest ways to utilise Measured Moves in your trading:
1. Dynamic Profit Target:
Utilise the Measured Move as a dynamic profit target mechanism. Once the initial trend (AB leg) is established, projecting the potential length of the subsequent move (CD leg) provides a quantifiable target for profit-taking. This aids traders in securing gains while the trend continues its momentum.
Benefits:
Offers a clear and predefined target for profit-taking, aiding in trade management.
Can help traders to focus on the trade setups with the most attractive levels of risk-to-reward.
Additional Tips and Tricks:
Confirm the Measured Move target with other technical indicators or patterns for stronger validation.
Adjust trade size and risk exposure according to the projected target to optimise risk management.
Measured Move Profit Target Example:
In the following example, EUR/USD puts in a clear directional move lower which breaks support – forming an AB leg. The market then undergoes a choppy period of retracement – forming our BC leg.
A trend continuation trade setup in which EUR/USD is shorted can then be initiated and a profit target can be generated using a Measured Move (CD) which is generated by transposing AB onto BC.
Part 1: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
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Play if forward (see part 2 below) and we can see that the market comfortably hits the harmonic measured move target and forms a short-term bottom around the harmonic target zone.
Part 2: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
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2. Reversal Zone:
The Measured Move can be used to identify areas where price action may stall or reverse direction. When the CD leg completes near the projected Measured Move level, it serves as a signal for potential trend reversal, providing an opportunity to enter trades in the opposite direction.
Benefits:
Pinpoints potential reversal points, allowing for strategic entry into new trends.
Provides an early indication of trend exhaustion or change in direction.
Additional Tips and Tricks:
Combine the Measured Move analysis with horizontal levels of support and resistance.
Combine with reversal candlestick patterns.
Example 1: FTSE Completes Measured Move into Resistance
In the following example, the FTSE completes a harmonic Measured Move into a clear area of horizontal resistance. Notice how a series of reversal candles form near the harmonic completion zone.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
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Example 2: Gold Completes Measured Move into Resistance
Here’s a recent example of a harmonic Measured Move completion in the gold market. Notice how this completion occurs at a key level of resistance and a large bearish engulfing candle forms upon completion.
Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
By integrating the Measured Move technique into your trading strategy, you gain a structured approach to both profit-taking on trend continuations and identifying potential reversal areas. This methodical application of harmonic principles aids in enhancing trade precision and confidence.
In Part 2 we'll explore advanced harmonic concepts building upon this foundation.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
AB ⚡️ CD — Harmonic Patterns 🟣The AB⚡️CD pattern is a highly effective tool utilized in trading to identify potential opportunities across diverse markets, including forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures.
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This pattern takes the form of a visual and geometric arrangement, characterized by three consecutive price swings or trends.
When observed on a price chart, the ABCD pattern exhibits a striking resemblance to a lightning bolt ⚡️ or a distinctive zig-zag pattern.
Importance of the ABCD Pattern
The significance of the ABCD pattern lies in its ability to identify trading opportunities across different markets, timeframes, and market conditions. Whether the market is bullish, bearish, or range-bound, the ABCD pattern remains a reliable tool.
By recognizing the completion of the pattern at point D, you can get a perspective trade entries. Furthermore, the ABCD pattern helps you determine the risk-to-reward ratio before initiating a trade. When multiple patterns converge within the same timeframe or across different timeframes, it strengthens the trade signal and increases the likelihood of a profitable outcome.
Finding an ABCD Pattern
The ABCD pattern has both a bullish and bearish version. Bullish patterns indicate higher probability opportunities to buy or go long, while bearish patterns suggest opportunities to sell or go short.
To identify an ABCD pattern, it is essential to locate significant highs or lows on a price chart, represented by points A, B, C, and D. These points define the three consecutive price swings or legs of the pattern: the AB leg, the BC leg, and the CD leg.
Trading is not an exact science, so traders often employ Fibonacci ratios to determine the relationship between the AB and CD legs in terms of both time and price. This approximation assists in locating the potential completion of the ABCD pattern. When patterns converge, it increases the probability of successful trades and enables you to make more accurate decisions regarding entries and exits.
Types of ABCD Patterns
There are three types of ABCD patterns, each having both a bullish and bearish version. To validate an ABCD pattern, specific criteria and characteristics must be met. Here are the characteristics of the bullish and bearish ABCD patterns:
📈 Bullish ABCD Pattern Characteristics (buy at point D):
To effectively trade the bullish ABCD pattern, you might consider the following characteristics:
1. Find AB:
Identify point A as a significant high and point B as a significant low. During the move from A to B, ensure that there are no highs above point A and no lows below point B.
2. After AB, then find BC:
Point C should be lower than point A. In the move from B up to C, there should be no lows below point B and no highs above point C. Ideally, point C will be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the length of AB. However, in strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB.
3. After BC, then draw CD:
Point D, which marks the completion of the pattern, must be lower than point B, indicating that the market has successfully achieved a new low. During the move from C down to D, there should be no highs above point C.
4.1 Determine where D may complete (price):
To determine the price level at which point D may complete, Fibonacci and ABCD tools can be utilized. CD may equal AB in price, or it may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB in price. Alternatively, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC in price.
4.2 Determine when point D may complete (time) for additional confirmation:
For additional confirmation, you can analyze the time aspect of the pattern. CD may equal AB in time, or it may be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the time it took for AB to form. Additionally, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of the time it took for AB to form.
5. Look for Fibonacci, pattern, trend convergence:
Convergence of Fibonacci levels, pattern formations, and overall trend can strengthen the trade signal. Therefore, you should look for instances where these elements align.
6. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging candles in the CD leg:
As the market approaches point D, it is important to monitor for any price gaps or wide-ranging candles in the CD leg. These may indicate a potential strongly trending market, and you might expect to see price extensions of 127.2% or 161.8%.
📉 Bearish ABCD Pattern Characteristics (sell at point D):
To effectively trade the bearish ABCD pattern, you might consider the following characteristics:
1. Find AB:
Identify point A as a significant low and point B as a significant high. During the move from A up to B, ensure that there are no lows below point A and no highs above point B.
2. After AB, then find BC:
Point C should be higher than point A. In the move from B down to C, there should be no highs above point B and no lows below point C. Ideally, point C will be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the length of AB. However, in strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB.
3. After BC, then draw CD:
Point D, which marks the completion of the pattern, must be higher than point B, indicating that the market has successfully achieved a new high. During the move from C up to D, there should be no lows below point C and no highs above point D.
4.1 Determine where D may complete (price):
To determine the price level at which point D may complete, Fibonacci and ABCD tools can be utilized. CD may equal AB in price, or it may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB in price. Alternatively, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC in price.
4.2 Determine when point D may complete (time) for additional confirmation:
For additional confirmation, you can analyze the time aspect of the pattern. CD may equal AB in time, or it may be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the time it took for AB to form. Additionally, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of the time it took for AB to form.
5. Look for Fibonacci, pattern, trend convergence:
Convergence of Fibonacci levels, pattern formations, and overall trend can strengthen the trade signal. Therefore, you should look for instances where these elements align.
6. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging bars/candles in the CD leg:
As the market approaches point D, it is important to monitor for any price gaps or wide-ranging bars/candles in the CD leg. These may indicate a potential strongly trending market, and you might expect to see price extensions of 127.2% or 161.8%.
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Fibonacci: Advanced PatternsBuilding upon the foundational understanding of Fibonacci retracements and extensions explored in Part 1 (Fibonacci: The Fundamentals), this sequel ventures into the world of advanced Fibonacci patterns.
We introduce the two best known advanced Fibonacci patterns; the Gartley and Cypher. We break the patterns down into their essential components, teach you how to trade them and give you some tips that have the potential to boost the patterns probabilities of success.
Introducing Advanced Fibonacci Patterns
At first glance, advanced Fibonacci patterns can look like a confusing web of letters and numbers, but each pattern as two essential elements:
1. Impulse leg (X-A) – This is the foundation of the pattern. The X-A impulse leg should represent a clear and obvious period of directional price movement.
2. A-B-C-D sequence – This is a combination of Fibonacci retracements and or extensions. Some of these retracements and extensions will be precise and some will specify a zone of acceptable Fibonacci levels.
The patterns present a clear and objective framework for selecting and managing trades. And whilst there will always be a great deal of debate surrounding the use of Fibonacci levels in financial markets, these advance patterns offer a roadmap to consistent trade selection and management which can be applied to many styles of trading.
I. Gartley Pattern
The Gartley pattern has a beautiful harmonic aesthetic. The pattern essentially looks to enter the market on a two-legged pullback from the impulse leg highs. The two-legged pullback should take the market back down to the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement of the impulse leg – creating a trade setup which has attractive levels of risk reward.
Here are the Gartley pattern rules that must be met:
AB retraces XA by 61.8%
BC retraces AB by 38.2% to 88.6%.
CD retraces XA by 61.8% to 78.6%.
Gartley Pattern
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
How to Trade the Gartley Pattern:
Entry and Stop: Traders typically enter upon completion of the pattern near the D point, implementing a stop-loss below or above point X.
Targets: Point C makes for a clean initial target, with secondary targets coming in at point A – the peak of the impulse leg.
Tip: Rather than simply entering on D – wait for a reversal candle pattern to form. This can help to ensure that your entry is aligned with short-term and can help to tip the probabilities of success in your favour.
Bullish Gartley Example: GBP/USD 4-Hour Candle Chart
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Bearish Gartley Example: GBP/AUD Hourly Candle Chart
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II. Cypher Pattern
The Cypher pattern is characterised by an “M” shape when bullish and a “W” shape if bearish. The pattern looks to enter the market following a deep 78.6% retracement of a two-legged trending move up or down. A key point of difference is the Cypher pattern measures the 78.6% retracement from points X-C.
Here are the Cypher harmonic pattern rules that must also be met:
AB retraces XA by 38.2% to 61.8%.
BC extends XA by 127.2% to 141.4%.
CD retraces XC by 78.6%.
The Cypher Pattern:
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How to Trade the Cypher Pattern:
Entry and Stop: Like the Gartley pattern, traders typically enter upon completion of the Cypher pattern near point D point, implementing a stop-loss below or above point X.
Targets: Initial target is a 61.8% retracement of point C to Entry level. Secondary targets are a retest of the pattern high/low at point C.
Tip: Zoom out on your price chart and pay attention to the wider market structure. Look to take Cypher patterns which align with the bigger picture trend as this will boost your probabilities of success.
Bullish Cypher Example: EUR/CAD Daily Candle Chart
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Bearish Cypher Example: GBP/USD Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
Advanced Fibonacci patterns provide traders with structure. They are essentially ready-made trade plans that can help to improve discipline and consistency in trade selection and trade management. Don’t forget to consider the wider market structure when selecting Fibonacci trades and use candle patterns to refine the timing of your entry.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The EWT Explanation as to why I'm BullishThe elliot waves i have explained on the chart, with fib extenion levels of .127, 1.36, 1.50, 1.62, 1.78, with 1.5 being the mean. there are numbers up to 2.44 and higher...
As i have explained before at any instant there is a 50/50% chance of going up or down, all other indicators i have seen, except Squeeze pro, and EWT 80% chance of success.
So be ready for a download too, 20% hance think like Sun Tsu we are on deadly ground using out level 3 platforms, the Brokers probably have level 7 screens by now it used to be level 5 screens. If Paper wants to rip a hole in our little bullish world of chop and begin the MAXIMUM PROFITS downslide downtrend we all dream of finally being short As hell andmaking huge profits shorting all day long from R5 down to S6 or S7
I have been trying to teach everyone how to spot EW 4 and stay in a trade w/o paying hundreds of dollars a day in commissions, after wave 4 you get a rocket ship on steriods, impuslive, complex and in the TREND UP.
Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions- How & Why? | Live ExampleFibonacci retracements in technical analysis of various assets use a mathematical sequence discovered by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. This sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. In stock trading, Fibonacci retracements are used to identify potential levels of support or resistance during price corrections.
Imagine you have a stock that has been rising in price for some time. Suddenly, it starts to decline. Traders who use Fibonacci retracements believe that during this downward movement, the stock price will likely retrace or bounce back to certain levels before continuing its downward trend.
These retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The most commonly used levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. For example, if a stock's price drops from 100 to 80, traders would expect it to bounce back to around 88.20 (38.2% retracement), 90 (50% retracement), or 93.20 (61.8% retracement) before continuing its decline.
While their effectiveness is debated just like any other tool, many traders including myself believe that these levels act as psychological support or resistance points due to the large number of market participants who follow this approach.
Let us get back on the example above.
I drew a trendline which had helped me back in 2021 to predict the top in GOLD. This is the perfect example of how EVERY PRICE movement matters. The Fibonacci levels are derived from levels from 2008. In this example the Fibonacci extension level 3.618 held as a perfect resistance for the price of GOLD.
2008 to 2023, isn't this amazing? How long can a single price movement can have its affect!
How to draw a Fibonacci Retracement/Extension?
It's fairly simple. Just plot one end of the fib to the high of the price movement and the other to the low or vice versa.
I'll answering all your queries in the comments below. Please feel free to reach out!
Harmonic Patterns in Trading: A simple introductionIntroduction
In the world of trading, we often hear about harmonic patterns. These are very special tools in the trader's toolkit. They are complex but very important. In this article, we look into these patterns, how traders use them, and why they are crucial.
Understanding Harmonic Patterns
Harmonic patterns are part of technical analysis in trading. They come from Fibonacci numbers and show potential future price movements. These patterns are not random; they are specific geometric shapes in the markets. Some well-known patterns are Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab, and Shark. Each pattern is unique and uses Fibonacci in a different way.
Top Harmonic Patterns
Gartley Pattern: This is a very famous pattern. It looks like an 'M' or 'W' shape. It helps traders to find good points for buying or selling.
Bat Pattern: This pattern is similar to Gartley but with different Fibonacci measurements. It's known for its high accuracy in predicting market reversals.
Butterfly Pattern: This pattern indicates a strong reversal. It's like Gartley and Bat but has a longer 'wing'.
Crab Pattern: Known for its extreme accuracy, the Crab pattern offers precise entry and exit points.
Shark Pattern: This is a newer pattern. It helps to identify very sharp and sudden changes in the market.
Fibonacci and Markets: A Symbiotic Relationship
Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers important in many areas, including markets. Traders use these numbers to predict where the market might go.
Importance of Harmonic Patterns in Trading
Predicting Markets: These patterns help traders to guess future market movements, unlike other tools that only analyze past data.
Strategic Trading: They offer clear points for entering and exiting trades, which helps in planning.
Versatility: Useful in various markets like forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Risk Management: They provide structured ways to manage trading risks.
Complementing Strategies: Harmonic patterns can be combined with other market analysis methods for stronger trading strategies.
Learning Curve
Understanding harmonic patterns requires time and market knowledge. But they offer a clear insight into market behavior, which is very valuable for traders.
Challenges
Using harmonic patterns can be tricky. They need correct identification, and market volatility can sometimes affect their accuracy. So, traders need to be adaptable.
Conclusion
Harmonic patterns are a mix of mathematics and market understanding. They use Fibonacci to interpret market movements. For traders willing to learn, they offer deeper market insights. In trading, understanding these patterns can be a great advantage.