Market cycle psychology🔍 The psychology of the markets is a discipline that studies the different mental scenarios that investors often face when making their investments.
📚 Psychology in the market is one of the major pillars (for many, the primary one) that influences the success of the investor. The other two pillars are capital management and the applied investment system (strategy, routines, etc.).
📊 This cycle most frequently affects beginner investors/traders due to their inexperience and mental vulnerability to market movements.
❓ And you, have you experienced all the stages of this cycle? (🇬🇧)
Harmonic Patterns
UNVEILING THE COMPREHENSIVE ARSENAL OF TRADING TOOLS
The trading landscape in the 21st century is characterized by a revolutionary fusion of cutting-edge technology and financial acumen. As the accessibility of trading increases, traders wield a versatile suite of tools that encompass chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator. This in-depth exploration delves into the profound significance of these tools, unraveling their collective potential to empower proactive traders with precision, insight, and strategic advantage.
The Evolution of Modern Trading Tools:
The digital age has ushered in a new era of trading prowess, where rapid data flows and advanced software solutions redefine the boundaries of trading. Enabled by the synergy of computers, high-speed internet, and sophisticated charting software, traders enjoy real-time access to data analytics and market trends. Within this realm, a rich repository of tools is available, catering to traders' diverse needs with heightened precision and predictive power.
Chart Patterns : Deciphering Market Sentiment:
Chart patterns occupy a pivotal role as visual conduits of market psychology and price action trends. From classic formations like double bottoms to iconic patterns like head and shoulders, these visual representations encapsulate historical price movements and inform future price dynamics. Proactive traders leverage chart patterns to anticipate pivotal reversals and breakout points, weaving together historical trends and human behavioral insights into actionable trading strategies.
Fibonacci Retracements: Unveiling Harmonious Ratios:
At the nexus of mathematics and trading, Fibonacci retracements harmonize the natural ratios discovered by Leonardo of Pisa, known as Fibonacci. These ratios, including the Golden Ratio (0.618) and its derivatives, echo natural proportions that echo throughout nature and financial markets. Traders utilize these retracements to identify potential support and resistance levels, choreographing entry and exit points with a mathematical precision that complements market intuition.
Andrews' Pitchfork: Sculpting Market Trends:
From the annals of technical analysis emerges Andrews' pitchfork—a tool that imparts structure to market trends. Crafted by Dr. Alan Andrews, this method employs three pivotal price points to map out potential trend channels, identify support and resistance zones, and navigate the ebb and flow of market movements. Proactive traders harness this tool's prowess to create strategies that thrive within these discernible channels.
Zig Zag Indicator : Distilling Price Trends:
Navigating the labyrinthine price chart is simplified by the Zig Zag indicator—a tool designed to eliminate market noise and elucidate significant price movements. This indicator employs precise highs and lows to create lines that showcase trends with clarity, ensuring that traders are privy to substantial trends while disregarding minor fluctuations. In this manner, the Zig Zag indicator becomes a beacon amidst market complexity.
A Synergistic Trading Arsenal:
The amalgamation of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator engenders a holistic trading approach of unparalleled potency. While chart patterns unveil market psychology, Fibonacci retracements contribute mathematical precision, Andrews' pitchfork orchestrates trend analysis, and the Zig Zag indicator distills trends from noise, thus harmonizing a comprehensive trading strategy.
Conclusion:
In an era marked by unceasing innovation, success in trading is predicated upon the adept utilization of a multifaceted toolset. The amalgamated prowess of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator constitutes a comprehensive arsenal that empowers traders with foresight, precision, and strategic edge. As the 21st-century trading milieu continues its evolution, mastery over these tools remains pivotal, transforming the intricate dynamics of financial markets into a realm of opportunity and achievement.
TCPLTP
HOW-TO: Auto Harmonic Pattern - Screener [Trendoscope]Hello Everyone,
Here is a short walkthrough on our latest indicator cum screener - Auto Harmonic Pattern Screener. In this video we talk about few things.
Auto Harmonic Pattern Screener and how to use it
Different settings and Chart components
Differences between Auto Harmonic Pattern UltimateX and Screener and how to use them together to find patterns and study them in depth.
Common settings between the scripts and different use cases
This is a premium script which is part of Trendoscope Premium Indicator subscription. Please read the "Author's instructions" section of the script to know how to request for trial and subscription.
Please try and let me know if you have any feedbacks and report if you notice any bugs. Thanks very much for watching the video and using our indicators. Have a good day and enjoy your rest of the weekend :)
ForexEd with £xThe hardest parts of trading:
1. Patiently waiting for the right setup
2. Boldly pulling the trigger on the right setup
3. Calmly accepting the final outcome of the right setup
Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan. If market reacts differently, Make a new plan and trade the new plan.
Good Luck and Good Trading
Happy weekend.
Linking Time with Price LevelThe relationship between time and price level can be observed through the analysis of price charts and technical indicators. Technical analysis involves the use of charts and indicators to identify patterns and trends in price movements. One important aspect of technical analysis is the identification of support and resistance levels, which can help traders make decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Technical indicators can also be used to analyze the relationship between price and time. For example, moving averages can be used to identify trends in price movements over a specific period of time. The slope of the moving average can indicate the strength of the trend, while the distance between the price and the moving average can indicate the level of deviation from the trend.
In addition to technical indicators, traders also use fundamental analysis to assess the relationship between time and price level. Fundamental analysis involves the study of economic and financial data to identify factors that can influence the price of an asset. For example, changes in interest rates, inflation, and political events can all have an impact on the price of an asset over time.
To summarize, the relationship between time and price level is complex and multifaceted. Traders use a variety of tools and techniques to analyze this relationship, including technical indicators, charts, and fundamental analysis. By understanding the relationship between time and price level, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Regarding the development of price ratios, the expected price level and the expected price movement for the wave can be determined by analyzing technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Price Oscillator. The RSI can be used to identify the overbought and oversold conditions of an asset, while the Price Oscillator can indicate the strength of the trend. By analyzing these indicators, traders can develop price ratios and make informed decisions about when to enter or exit a trade.
Finally, it's important to note that the relationship between price and time is not always straightforward. While technical analysis and fundamental analysis can provide valuable insights, they are not foolproof. Traders need to be aware of the limitations of these tools and use them in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies.
IDEA!CHALENGGreetings, dear friends.
I wanted to share with you an interesting idea regarding chart labeling. Instead of labeling the chart, I suggest focusing on your trend line and channel.
My analytical tools include the Elliott wave principle, harmonic patterns, chart patterns, and the simple yet powerful trend line.
I appreciate all of my companions and followers who support my ideas.
It is my hope that the information I provide may be useful to you.
Thank you for all of your support and encouragement.
Warm regards,
Mr. Nobody, with two years of experience
STMX Thank you for the usdt- KnowledgeLets look at stmx and we are going to see how u trade the swing high. Now most of the coins I send are at the bottom waiting for the pump (more profit) but if u want to trade a pump this is what u look for:
You will notice that stmx is forming higher highs, you then want to find a position, Look for a period of consolidation on a support level in this case this was 0.00466, 40 hrs of consolidation testing support level 9 times. That is my first entry point.
I included another trade i sent in the bottom which will demonstrate this methodology
The second entry point for those who like to trade pump is on the breakout and retest, you will see we broke out and retested the trendline for 3 hours, then the pump. I presume everyone knows the right way to draw a trendline.
That is it basically, You need to hunt for trades that are "boring" and trade into the excitement.
I included another trade i sent in the bottom so u can see this trading method on a trade i sent
How I use ICT Discount And Premium Strategy For Forex TradingHow I use ICT Discount And Premium Strategy For Forex Trading.
In this video, I explained how I use ICT discount and premium levels for daily bias and also for intraday entry.
If you find this video helpful, give a thumb up, drop a comment, follow me for future updates and also share this video link on your social media timeline.
Fibonacci-Based Moving Average Trading StrategyThe Fibonacci-Based Moving Average Trading Strategy is a simple yet effective approach to trading that utilizes three exponential moving averages (EMAs) with periods based on Fibonacci numbers (5, 8, and 13). This strategy aims to capitalize on price trends and generate profits with minimal risk in any timeframe.
The choice of using Fibonacci numbers (5, 8, and 13) for the EMA periods is based on their close association with the Fibonacci sequence, which is known for its prevalence in nature and financial markets. These specific numbers are believed to enhance the strategy's ability to capture key market movements.
The strategy involves waiting for the EMA 5 to cross the other two EMA levels (8 and 13). When the EMA 5 crosses above the EMA 8 and EMA 13, it generates a buy signal. Conversely, when the EMA 5 crosses below the EMA 8 and EMA 13, it creates a sell signal. The trader will enter into a position accordingly and hold it until a signal against the prevailing trend is generated.
By following this strategy, traders can take advantage of trends and ride profitable price movements while keeping risk to a minimum. The use of EMAs based on Fibonacci numbers provides an added layer of insight and precision to identify potential entry and exit points.
It's important to note that no trading strategy is foolproof, and markets can be unpredictable. While this strategy is relatively straightforward, it's still crucial for traders to exercise caution, manage risk appropriately, and consider other factors such as market conditions, price patterns, and fundamental analysis when making trading decisions.
Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in MathematicsQ: What does the former have to do with the later?
A: The intuition in the former (S. Carney) is born out by the later (A. Avila; Fields Medal - 2014)
From Scott Carney's website;
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"Harmonic Trading: Volume One Page 136
The Deep Crab Pattern™, is a Harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2001.
The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone."
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From Artur Avila's Fields Medal Citation;
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"Artur Avila is awarded a Fields Medal for his profound contributions to dynamical systems theory, which have changed the face of the field, using the powerful idea of renormalization as a unifying principle.
Description in a few paragraphs:
Avila leads and shapes the field of dynamical systems. With his collaborators, he has made essential progress in many areas, including real and complex one-dimensional dynamics, spectral theory of the one-frequency Schrödinger operator, flat billiards and partially hyperbolic dynamics.
Avila’s work on real one-dimensional dynamics brought completion to the subject, with full understanding of the probabilistic point of view, accompanied by a complete renormalization theory. His work in complex dynamics led to a thorough understanding of the fractal geometry of Feigenbaum Julia sets.
In the spectral theory of one-frequency difference Schrödinger operators, Avila came up with a global description of the phase transitions between discrete and absolutely continuous spectra, establishing surprising stratified analyticity of the Lyapunov exponent."
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The connection here, as it is related to the specific "Deep Crab" harmonic pattern in trading, between intuition and general, analytical result, is illustrated somewhat simplified (but without distortion).
In essence, Avila has shown that in dynamical systems, in the neighborhood of phase-transitions in the case of one-dimensional (such as: Price) unimodal distributions, after the onset of chaos, there are islands of stability surrounded nearly entirely by parameters that give rise to stochastic behavior where transitions are Cantor Maps - i.e., fractal.
From that point it is an obvious next step to generalize to other self-affine fractal curves , such as the blancmange curve , which is a special case of w=1/2 of the general form: the Takagi–Landsberg curve. The "Hurst exponent"(H) = -log2(w) , which is the measure of the long-term-memory of a time series .
Putting it all together, it is not pure coincidence that a reliable pattern (representation) emerges from intuition (observation) which proves to be a highly stable (reliable) pattern that is most often the hallmark of a near-term, violent transition.
Smart Money Liquidity Grab Or Shift In Market Structure?Look at the Us30, and GBPUSD charts attached to this post, what do you see????
OANDA:GBPUSD
OANDA:US30USD
GBPUSD
Do you see a shift in market structure or Liquidity grab by smart money algorithm?
In financial market trading, one key to determine where the liquidity that the market will run next is located is to ask yourself who are those making money from the current move....
Where are they likely to trail their stops to.
Whatever your answer is, that is the liquidity the algorithm will most likely run first to continue in the intended direction...
In the charts examples attached to this post, market was bullish, then the smart money algorithm drive price lower to break the recent and obvious recent swing low to take out all the sell stops below that low, and induce new traders to go short thinking that the market is now bearish.
But price rebalance in imbalance below the lows and then push higher.
That is a smart money liquidity grab not shift in market structure.
With this understanding, you should now be able to understand that not all structure shift in a bullish or bearish market is a shift in market structure.
The majority are liquidity grabs by smart money algorithm.
Like my idea? Give a like to this post and drop your comment.
For more updates, give me a follow, you can also Dm for further enquiries.
Shift In Market Structure Or Liquidity Grab By Smart Money????Look at the Us30, GBPUSD and EURUSD charts attached to this post, what do you see????
GBPUSD
Do you see a shift in market structure or Liquidity grab by smart money algorithm?
In financial market trading, one key to determine where the liquidity that the market will run next is located is to ask yourself who are those making money from the current move....
Where are they likely to trail their stops to.
Whatever your answer is, that is the liquidity the algorithm will most likely run first to continue in the intended direction...
With this understanding, you should now be able to understand that not all structure shift in a bullish or bearish market is a shift in market structure.
The majority are liquidity grabs by smart money algorithm.
US30
How To Use Time Frame Combination For Swing Trading OANDA:NZDUSD
OANDA:EURUSD
Hello Traders,
This video will show you how to use time frames and combine them for swing trading from a higher time frame to a lower time frame.
I use recent NZDUSD and EURUSD move to frame swing trade opportunities from a higher time frame to a lower time frame.
I hope this video helps you.
Don't forget to give me a like and a follow for future updates.
If there is anything you want me to cover, drop a comment on it.
Target reached! Crude Oil ReviewPrice bounced strongly above the 67.31 support level towards our take profit target - but how did we do it?
Join Desmond in this analysis review where he covers the reason why this setup worked nicely.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Target Reached! XAGUSD ReviewPrice reversed strongly from our resistance level to the support level at 22.20. But how did it happen?
Join Desmond in today's analysis review to have a quick recap on the elements that led to this strong reversal.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Target Reached! EURAUD ReviewPrice bounced perfectly from our confluence support level and reached our target. But how did it happen? Join Desmond as he reviews how we managed to forecast the reversal with such a high degree of accuracy.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Rising wedgeA rising wedge in an up trend is usually considered a reversal pattern. This pattern is at the end of a bullish wave, by creating close price tops, shows us that the supply has intensified and there is a possibility of a trend change. Of course, nothing is certain and if the buyers are more willing and strong, this pattern may be broken in the direction of the market rise.
A rising wedge in the middle of a downtrend, is considered a corrective move and is known as a continuing pattern. For example, take a look at the above chart of Ethereum on the weekly time frame
Target reached! GBPUSD ReviewPrice bounced off the 1.2683 support we identified and rose nicely to our take profit target at the 1.2832 level. In this review, we touch on why we used the 1.2832 level and not the swing high at 1.2850 - a lot of this is down to trade management and take profit placement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Target Reached! USDCHF ReviewPrice reversed beautifully from the sell entry level we forecasted at 0.8988 and has reached the take profit target of 0.8908. The important lesson here is to place your take profit before a key level (vs right at the key level). As you can see in this video, price touched the TP level and took off in the other direction - just missing this crucial bit of information would have been potentially costly.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
What is the EMA? How to use EMA most effectively!What is EMA?
EMA or Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that is based on a weighted exponential formula that is more responsive to changes recent prices, compared to a simple moving average (SMA) that only applies equal weight to all periods, helping the EMA to smooth the price line more than the SMA.
What signals does the EMA provide to traders?
Moving averages offer a significant benefit by offering clear insight into price trends. In other words, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cannot exceed or remain above the price line unless the price is increasing. Similarly, it cannot be below the price line if the price is not actually decreasing. This is crucial for traders as it provides a distinct and reliable indication of the price trend, avoiding any ambiguity. The trend is essential in helping traders identify entry points.
The EMA will become a dynamic resistance, because it moves in the direction of the price, which means where the price goes, the EMA will follow.
Become dynamic support and resistance levels (these resistance levels can be used to compare the trendline, support and static resistance lines). From here will look for entry points, stop loss and take profit points.
Identify price trends.
Which EMA should be used most appropriately?
EMA 9 or EMA 10: This number represents a two-week period of trading, making EMA9/EMA10 commonly used for short-term transactions.
EMA 34/EMA 89 are used to align with the primary waves as per the Elliott wave theory.
EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 200 are closely associated with trading sessions. Over the course of a year, we can typically trade for around 200 days, accounting for holidays and breaks. EMA50 represents the medium term, corresponding to the four seasons in a year, with each season having approximately 50 trading sessions. Similarly, EMA 20 represents the month.
Some traders also utilize the 250 EMA in addition to the 200 EMA, believing that 250 represents the number of trading days in a year.
EMA100 is a commonly chosen EMA due to its round number value. Round numbers are often seen as psychological barriers in trading.
Compare trendline with EMA:
As mentioned earlier, EMA is another way to identify trends, just like the trendline.
To better understand this concept, the trendline can be seen as a fixed resistance. Once you draw a trendline, it will act as a reference point for the price.
On the other hand, EMA is a dynamic resistance. It moves along with the price line. Unlike the trendline, EMA closely follows the price line because it is calculated based on the price itself. This makes EMA more accurate in showing the trend. It can clearly indicate whether the price is above or below the EMA.
Some notes with EMA:
- When the price surpasses or falls below the EMA, but then retreats below it again, it indicates a strong downtrend or uptrend.
- If the price strays too far from the EMA, it is advisable to wait for it to correct itself and return to the EMA before considering any trading actions.
- Fast EMAs or short period EMAs are more sensitive to price movements compared to slow EMAs, but they are also more prone to breakdowns. This can be advantageous as it allows for early trend identification compared to the SMA. However, the EMA is likely to experience more frequent short-term fluctuations compared to the corresponding SMA.
- EMAs act as dynamic resistance levels that consistently track the price line.
- The EMA is not primarily used for pinpointing exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it assists traders in aligning their trades with the prevailing trend.
- The EMA always has a delay, making the SMA more useful in sideways markets, while the EMA is more effective in clearly trending markets.
Thank you @TradingView !
Educational: Quick, What are Fractals?You've probably heard before "The markets are fractal" and you probably was not sure what that meant
What is a fractal?
Fractals are complex geometric patterns that exhibit self-similarity at different scales. In other words, they are intricate shapes that contain smaller copies of themselves, regardless of the level of magnification. Fractal in financial markets are often mistaken for Williams fractal indicator. They are not the same .
Fractals have applications in various fields, including mathematics, physics, computer graphics, and art. They have also been used to model and study complex natural phenomena, such as the branching patterns of trees, the distribution of galaxies, the structure of coastlines, and even the behavior of financial markets.Fractals are utilized in financial markets to illustrate the notion that patterns observed in the market transcend timeframes and remain consistent. In essence, the behavior exhibited on a 1-minute chart is also on a daily chart.
Below is a good example of a fractal pattern at different scales.
Lets bring this back to the financial markets. Without cheating. I want you to go ahead and try to guess which of these charts is a daily chart.
Have your answer ? Okay good. Well as it turns out they are all the same chart at different scales. They are all actually a 1Hr chart of US30. See image below.
Once I removed the scale and price there was no way for you to tell what chart or timeframe you were viewing. In fact I could have provided you with any data plotted as a candlestick and you would not know what data it is. Because the same patterns exist on all timeframes regardless of scale. So the next time someone says. The daily timeframe is more smooth and less choppy, understand that there is "some" truth to that but only in the sense of the daily timeframe is less prone to anomalies such as news events that might cause a sudden spike on the chart but on a long enough timeframe that spike can also occur on the daily timeframe.
Now the next time you hear someone say "The markets are fractal" you will understand.
Note that this is a far more complex topic but this is just a quick summary
WHY TRADERS LOSE MONEYhello traders, today we will talk about WHY TRADERS LOSE MONEY TVC:DXY TVC:DXY
BIAS
WHAT IT MEANS…
HOW IT INFLUENCES TRADERS
Availability People estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily it can be recalled. Traders put too much emphasis on their most recent trades and let recent results interfere with their trading decisions.
After a loss, traders often get scared or try to get back to break even. Both mental states lead to bad trading quickly.
After a win, many traders get over-confident and trade loosely.
You must be aware of how you react to recent results and trade with a high level of awareness.
Dilution effect Irrelevant data weakens other more relevant data. Using too many tools and trading concepts to analyze price could weaken the importance of the core decision drivers.
I wrote about redundant signals and how to combine the right tools here: click here
Gambler’s fallacy People believe that probabilities have to even each other out in the short term. Traders misinterpret randomness and believe that after three losing trades, a winning trade is more likely. The probabilities don’t change based on past results.
Even after 10 losses in a row, the next trade does not have a higher chance of being a winner.
Anchoring Overestimating the importance of the first available piece of information. Upon entering a trade, people set their whole chart and analysis in reference to their entry price and don’t see the whole picture objectively anymore.
You must always have a plan BEFORE you enter a trade.
Insensitivity to sample size Underestimating the variance for large and small sample sizes. Traders too often make assumptions about the accuracy of their system based on just a few trades, or even change parameters after only a few losers.
A decent sample size is 30 – 50 trades. Do not alter anything about your approach before you have reached this number. And make sure that you follow the same rules to get an accurate picture of your trading within the sample size.
Contagion heuristic Avoiding contact with objects people see as “contaminated” by previous contact. Traders avoid markets/instruments after having a large loss in that instrument, even when the loss was the fault of the trader.
Hindsight We see things that have already occurred as more probable than they were before they took place. Looking back on your trades and fishing for explanations why the trade has failed, even though those signals weren’t obvious at the time.
Do not change your indicator or setting after a loss to come up with explanations or excuses. Accept that losses are normal and always follow your plan.
Hot-hand fallacy After a successful outcome on a random event, another success is more likely. Traders believe that once they are in a winning streak, things become easier and they can “feel” what the market is going to do next.
I wrote about the hot-dand-fallacy in trading before: click here
Peak–end rule People judge an event based on how they felt at the peak of the event. Traders look at a losing trade and only see how much they were in profit at the maximum, but don’t look at what went wrong afterwards.
Do not change your reference point when in a trade and have a plan for your trade management and when to exit before entering a trade.
Simulation heuristic People feel more regret if they miss an event only by a little. Price that missed your target only by a little bit, or a trade where you got stopped out just by a few points can be more painful than other trades.
The outcome is out of your control and you cannot influence the price movements. The only thing you can do is manage your trade within your rules.
Social proof If unsure what to do, people look for what other people did. Traders too often ask for advice from other traders when they are not sure what to do – even when other traders have a completely different trading strategy.
You must take responsibility for your actions and results. And not rely on someone else.
Framing People make decisions based on how it is presented; a gain is more valuable than a loss and a sure gain is more valuable than a probabilistic greater gain. Traders close profitable trades too early because they value current profits more than a potentially larger profit in the future.
Cutting winners too soon is a huge problem. If this is an issue for you, reducing screen time can be helpful. Do not watch your trades tick by tick.
Sunk cost We will invest in something just because we have already invested in it. before Adding to losing trades because you are already invested, even though no objective reason to add exists.
You must define your stop loss in advance and then execute it without hesitation when it has been reached.
Confirmation Only looking for information that confirms your beliefs, ideas and actions. Blanking out reasons and signals that don’t support your trade and just looking for confirmation.
Especially when traders are in a loss, they only look for supportive information. Stay objective!
Overconfidence People have a higher confidence than what their level of skill actually suggests. Traders misjudge their level of expertise and skill. Consistently losing traders don’t see that it’s their fault.
Analyze your results objectively and get a trading journal to add even more accountability.
Selective perception Forgetting those things that caused discomfort. Traders forget easily that their own mistakes and wrong trading decisions caused the majority of their losses.
Do not blame the marjets, unfair circumnstances, your broker or any other outside event. You are the one who is responsible for making it work. It’s totally up to you and blaming others won’t help you make progress.
Which bias is the one that is causing you the greatest troubles? What are you workin on right now? Let me know in the comments below and I will answer with tips and ideas on how to overcome your struggles.
This chart is just for information
Never stop learning
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you