Big Alert :- Stay away from PnD Low Volume CoinsHi CryptoPatel Family!
This is a Informational/Educational post on one of Trading strategy PnD( Pump and Dump).
Basically in other words we can correlate it with another word SCAM, we should try to always avoid these kind of strategy.
By following this we can end up with major loss.
Always remember there is NO shortcut to SUCESS.
First LEARN then remove L.
Pump and Dump is nothing just Low volume/Penny/small cap coins in which retails investor have higher participation, operated and execution by very well with very well Plannings.
We are attaching the same example with a recent P&D of IDEX coin.
Hope you guys follow my advice by keeping yourself away from these kind of Pump and Dump Strategy.
Always Remember, THERE IS NO SHORTCUT TO SUCESS.
With Love,
CryptoPatel.
Harmonic Patterns
WTW: Worried about BTC and ALTs? Let me help.BITBAY:BTCUSDT sometimes feels like a winding road of volatility and confusion. It is until you understand the meaning behind the madness... In this week's: What The What?1? with @SwayzePunkz.
SwayzePunkz is an educational service, we're, of course, never soliciting any products we're just looking after the average investor, from beginner to advanced with some tips and tricks we learned along the way. Disclaimer, this isn't financial advice, so don't take it that way or we get in trouble.
Somewhere along the way, I came across some pretty useful information on TradingView, I was a beginner, but something caught my eye on the ol' squiggly lines. (this was before I knew what candlesticks were). I was roughly familiar with the FTX:SPYUSD aka the S&P 500, I knew it was a market indicator that showed roughly what was happening, but that was it... But what I noticed was the correlations between this chart and some of the ones I was watching.. Some of them, almost like clockwork, following the chart, or better yet, inversely (like it's opposite day) following the S&P...This staggering realization made me understand that trading wasn't only about the Trade fundamentals but also relied on the market's overall daily performance.
As I've always preached, trading is a mind game... Not some Jedi-voodoo shit, but a rigorous representation of human psychology. And that psychology all boils down to one word... Confidence.
Confidence could be the feeling you get when you're walking tall after getting that dope new fade, or it could be the way you feel about an unknown. As far as the squiggly lines go, unknowns come with the territory. This doesn't mean they need to be scary, and you should never feel worried. Confidence is that feeling after you've looked at the charts, made a plan for action, and are ready to execute. The better you are at trading, means the more confident you will be - before everyone else. I say this because if a chart is screaming at you, it shouldn't be because everyone already bought it and you feel that FOMO (fear of missing out). That confidence needs to come much before that, depending on the trading style as early as 30 minutes before everyone else. This way, once everyone else is throwing in their stake, you're already in, at that low-low, watching your portfolio climb and climb.
Now, the stock market is behind me and I'm a crypto punk these days, not your standard #NFT but I'm all about these crypto plays and I love the volatility... But at the base of it all, it all comes down to one fundamental truth, find your way to become confident in an entry, before everyone else.
Consider this, remember that time you bought into a long position, then it took a sharp turn to the dirt? You were trading FOMO. If you experience this a lot, here's my tip for evading this What The What?! scenario...
When you get that feeling in your tummy when you're scrolling through your "most active" for the HIGHEST* change% over time... That is FOMO**. Try the opposite, look for that entry on a stock that is OVERSOLD** and is on the LOWEST* change % list, and see if that has an entry point. If you're playing the short game take the words with * and ** above, and swap em.
This has been another What The What?! article from @Swayzetrain from @Swayzepunkz.
As always, thank you to TradingView for your amazing service. If you're not already a PRO member, I highly suggest you check that out for some of the best charting money can buy. Go over to SwayzePunkz Promo for $30 off your new membership *terms and conditions apply.
Also, thank you to my homies at MOGO, for hooking me up with my brand new Crypto Back Rewards Visa,
and to Binance for giving me a place to trade without worrying about high trading fees and confusing platforms!
If you want to check either of these things out, swing on by my Linktr.ee at Click Here!
or from mobile just hit up my TradingView Profile (hit follow) and go through my link in bio!
Have an awesome trading week guys! Talk soon!
Three ways to follow market relationships on TradingView. All trading requires an understanding of how markets are related. Understanding these relationships will put you ahead of others that don’t get it.
Mean reversion and spread trades require a deeper understanding of how markets move together and how these relationships change. Like the weather, the degree of correlations, lag, convergence/divergence change all the time. It is that change that can bring about opportunity.
On TradingView, there are three really easy ways to measure relationships.
1 Use the ‘Compare’ Function.
Click Compare.
Select Market.
This creates an overlay, showing relative performance in percentage terms. The starting point is the visual start of the chart.
Tip#1: Choose starting points that are significant, like just before a big announcement or at a chart high or low.
Tip#2: Play around with time frames to look for patterns.
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2 Use Relative Strength (not RSI).
This is not the RSI most of us know. This ‘Relative Strength’ shows the performance of one market versus another based on momentum and change.
Select indicator and search ‘relative strength’. Look for an indicator that compares to a 2nd market. Example: ‘relative strength to SPX’. For this particular one, the default setting is to compare to SPX (obviously). In settings, change this to your chosen market. In the above chart, we use BTC.
A falling index shows market#1 underperforming. This can be used to show overbought/sold conditions, relatively speaking.
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3 Watch your Correlations.
The Correlation Coefficient measures the degree of statistical relationship between two markets.
Tip: Look for extreme levels/changes in the number. It can tell of a change in trend or breakout.
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Try all three and see what works for you and your markets. Look for patterns.
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*11/19/20 BACKTEST* Bearish ButterflyThis is my first backtest. Here we have USDJPY on the 15m chart from 11/19/20. X-A retracement measure in at 0.746 and the X-A projection was spot on at 1.272. SL was calculated just beyond the 1.414 level on X-A projection. TP levels were 0.382 and 0.618 on the A-D retracement. Trade would have been entered at 04:30 UTC-5. First TP achieved at 06:00 UTC-5. Second TP achieved at 10:45 UTC-5. RR was 2.83.
DOGE IIIA close above previous high shows that the buyers are leading the current wave, a move back to test the pivot 1 could be doable but not so easy considered the actual momnetum. Only with a move back and with a close under pivot 1 we will reconsider the long positions opened in the 0.05 ish.
Update of:
Michael Saylor Twitter Strategy DumpPump BitcoinHello People !!!
We have all heard of Michael Saylor and we can say that we are your followers on twitter that every time he posts that he is buying bitcoin then we go too. But the main fact is that how much is the possibility that he is dipping bitcoin at a price we can not predict? Since as far as I understand every time he is buying it becomes a 5% climb and a dump of 14% is this the most powerful purchase and the whale that we should emphasize?
During the month of March he may have made 2 purchases meanwhile already in April on the 4th he made a purchase of 15 million dollars today is the 7th two days back he bought the bitcoin prices for 59k ... The question is did he sell that the price has dropped? Of course not, and I do not even think that he has sold his shares for nothing and that in fact there could be another greater risk if he sold them as we are leaving buyers but the holder of 92k bitcoin is in the game we hope that the next purchases are in a dip of 50k as the return of bitcoin is expected from 50k ...
Twitter is one of his strategies to decide the buyers we are entering, you are getting a chance and you to enter.
How does volume REALLY works?Volume is one of those indicators that remain as part of the standard palette of essential indicators (if there is such a thing), and yet, from intermediaries, brokers and exchanges, they teach you how to use it incorrectly. . Ultimately, as with most misconceptions, it is perpetuated by group mentality and dogma, and makes traders who use them fail. However, it is logical, these entities are not traders, they are programmers and financial agents who sell tools, and therefore their knowledge is limited to a logic that may or may not be the one that the market follows.
So how is volume actually used and how can a trader take advantage of it?
We are told that the more volume, the more likely a price movement is to occur. Some limit themselves to saying that when volume appears in a downtrend, it means that it will change, since the price has fallen to an interesting level for buyers and this new demand will raise the price. Others directly link more volume with more force in the direction of the trend.
From my point of view both are wrong, The only thing that indicates the volume is the probability that there is a change in volatility. Let me explain:
Suppose that in a port they are selling fish in several stalls, and there are 10 sellers and 10 buyers. In this situation, the price will be balanced, since there is one buyer per seller, neither the sellers are motivated to lower the price nor the buyers to offer higher prices. for what? if everyone can already buy their piece and go home.
If the situation were that there would be 8 buyers and 2 sellers, then the price would not stop rising; The 8 people who want fish could only get it from 2 people, and therefore, they would offer to buy it at a higher price so that one of the two sellers can decide and sell it to one of them.
However, here is the first problem: in trading, the volume does not tell us how many buyers and sellers there are, it only tells us the total amount. If I don't know how many of each there are, how am I going to be able to use that information to know where the price is going to go?
If in that scenario where there are 2 sellers and 8 buyers, there are instead 20 sellers and 80 buyers, would the situation change anything? There would still be a ratio of 1 to 4, and therefore the price would continue to rise, since in essence, there would still be 4 people wanting to buy for every person who wants to sell. The same happens if there are 200 or 20,000 sellers, while in return there are respectively 800 and 80,000 buyers.
What marks the variations in the price are not the people, it is the PROPORTION between the type of participation of those people. The only thing that could be used as a price prediction is the knowledge of that proportion, but in volume it does not show it.
That said, one might think that the more volume, the more volatility there is, and, for example, it could be used to buy or sell volatility in options contracts or directly by making a "grid" with other financial products, but from my point of view it is precisely otherwise:
What makes the price move is the breakdown of that harmony between buyers and sellers, regardless of the number of each of them.
Following the previous example, suppose there are two markets in the port. In one of them there are 100 people and in the other 10, and we do not know who buys or who sells in each of them.
It happens that a person enters each of the markets and we do not know if he wants to buy or sell.
In principle, we could not say that these new people will raise or lower the price, but if we look at it from a mathematical point of view, in the first market with 10 people, one person represents an increase of 10% of the participants (1 / 10 * 100) but in the market of 100 people, it is only 1% (1/100 * 100). This means that in the first market the price is more likely to change, since the moment this new person buys or sells, it would generate a 10% disproportion between supply and demand, and yet in the other market , it would only be 1%.
The percentage that represents a supposed new participant in the market tells us if greater volatility can occur.
DEADLY Accurate levels from Monthly log. Spider LinesThis chart's support and resistance was inspired by Crypto Face's spider line drawing method, I took candles from the monthly time frame and toggled 'Log' and drew the lines all the way from the first BTC monthly candles. I took every Monthly candle and drew extended rays, first point coming from the top of the first candle low candle of each cycle, second point on the top of nearest ATH at the time. By rinsing and repeating this process through the whole duration of BTC's lows and few ATH candles, this chart was born. You can clearly see that price action reacts very strongly to these levels. You could solely rely on this chart, but it would be best to pair with other TA in my opinion. I have not tested this with other cryptos just yet but I plan to in the near future.
100 ways to read a chart Especially for beginners it can be very confusing to interpret a chart ... patterns, indicators, oscilators. SDMA, EMAs, Fibonacci.
If you are interested, I would be happy to go into more detail about individual tools and setups, but today I will just give an overview of which tools and types of trade are available.
Timeframe
Trend trading months to years
Swing trading days to weeks
Intraday 1 day
Scalping seconds-minutes
Different markets
Forex
Stocks
raw materials
Indices
Cryptocurrencies
The main technical indicators
Simple moving average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Stochastics
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD)
Bollinger Bands (BB)
Chart types
Line chart
Bar chart
Candlestick Chart
Point & Figure Chart
Renko chart
Three line break chart.
Kagi Chart.
Heikin Ashi Chart.
Trade setups basic types
Continuation
Reversal
Sideways
Break out
My personal preferences
EW
Algo's
Pattern
Price action
EMA's MA's
RSI
MACD
KDJ
TAR
Stoch
BB
Pitchfork
Gan
The world of finance is diverse. It is very important to choose a style that suits your psyche, preferences and the amount of time you want to spend.
I would be grateful if you support my post whit likes and comments
Have a nice trading day
"Trade what you see, not what you think!"... and try to find multiple-100s of pips, even in over-manipulated junk such as the USDCHF.
Let's see if it's possible...
The title chart is the USDCHF Monthly, as it stands at the end of this quarter - 03/2021. What is the story here?...
It appears that this pair is rather predictable and has been obeying all the major support/resistance levels (PRZs), going as far back as one cares to look;
It is also clear that this pair continues to do so despite the relentless manipulation (money printing) of the SNB;
That massive 42.5% jump of the CHF vs. the USD, between 2009-2012 (which has not been recovered since), ...
... back when the whole world seemed to come apart ("The Great Financial Crisis" + European Sovereign Crisis), the Swiss Franc still remained one of only two, true Safe Haven currencies in the entire world! (beside the Japanese Yen and despite every imaginable liquidity constraint.)
Fast forward to the Covid Pandemic ...
... and the Franc did it's thing , once again, with an immediate +11.5% rise versus the USD, again, in what appeared to be the end of the (financial) world. However, several more things are noteworthy during this period;
- Had the SNB paid attention, they would have already known (or at least expect) that the support zone which formed back in 2014, at 0.8750, and which prompted a strait and virtually immediate -17.5% slump in the Franc vs. the Dollar, would stop and hold back the continued and "uncomfortable" advance of the Franc, this time around, as well; (The decision makers at the SNB are no different from the rest of clueless bureaucrats, typical for any other Central Bank lackey, anywhere else in the world. The only difference may be that they tend to have longer-term mandates and tenures.)
- Had they paid attention they also would have found it to be unnecessary to increase the printing of the Franc by a whopping +29% month-over-month (CHF60 Billion per), right into oblivion, or at least until they shot strait to the top of the pile and became one of the largest public investor in the Nasdaq100, scrapping 800+ years of Swiss tradition and thus tying Swiss fortunes to the likes of Apple and Netflix.
- Had they paid attention to their own history and tradition, they would have also realized a couple of fundamental truths;
1) No amount of printer ink will stop the worlds love affair - well in excess of Swiss GDP - with the Swiss Franc, any time when the the end of the world is nigh; (I.e. The reliance on Swiss resilience and frugal nature.)
2) With a Swiss ruling class (top 5%) having more wealth than any other nation on earth (in relative terms), reclusive, invisible and may be even boring as they may be, they will have their Central Bankers' heads on a pike (all the heads on one pike; The Swiss are frugal) way before any of them can do permanent or even lasting damage to the Swiss Franc and well before they can all shout "Mein Gott!" (or "Mon Dieu!", dependent on the particular central banker's regional origins).
Just in case should any of the above appear to be idle speculation, here is a gentle reminder; Does anyone recall Jan. 15, 2015? - When the SNB unceremoniously pulled the peg to the Euro, without any further (or previous) ado! Enough said.
The Franc has been in a heavy uptrend vs. the USD even before the Covid Pandemic;
Moving on...
As it currently stands (at the end of March, 2021) the top three FX Carry Trades are;
USDCHF
USDJPY
EURUSD
... in order of skew - lopsidedness. (check the C.O.T., FX positioning, etc.)
The Euro most likely being a transient phenomena , much like the ad-hoc, incompetent, protectionist, paradoxically conceived unionist nightmare of a Trans-national alliance which issues it... Not a factor. (The next, not-too-distant Euro-crisis will have to attest to that.) - And, as always, that leaves the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, once again, as the only remaining Safe Haven currencies of any gravitas.
Clearly, liquidity is a determining factor here and that leaves the Yen as the only Safe Haven currency with any substantial (i.e. Global) shock absorption potential, as this chart should underline the notion;
- As for the Swiss Franc... For one, this Monthly Chart illustrates several of the above catalogued fundamental thesis. Simply put, the USD was an obvious and helluva buy vs. the CHF, ever since following the Euro Zone's Sovereign Crisis where, in crisi-upon-crisis, end-of-the-world situations (such as a Pandemic), the obvious maximum pain-threshold of the Swiss National Bank lies in the 0.8750-0.8800 area vs. the USD.
Clearly, that is the area where they are likely to go all-in, given any prolonged future appreciation of the Franc vs. the USD.
The rest of the fluctuations in this pair are simply the product of the musical chairs methodology applied as (or rather: instead of) the"economic stability" mandate of the 18 or so Central Banks around the world which may be soon to be the proud parent/owners of 60% of the world's newly socialized, Soviet-style economies. - And, as has been established above, this pair presently being one of the premier Carry Trades.
So, what is the play here, if any?...
Having established somewhat of a fundamental picture, what are the technicals here?
The Weekly Chart;
... clearly shows that the CHF tends to move (or rather: be moved by the SNB) in strait, predictable drives, respecting Quarter Point targets along the way. (OK, so the Swiss are anal. What a shock!)
This whole technical picture stands the reason since all movement here, in this no-man's-land, is due to the whole civilized world continuously and relentlessly purchasing the Franc, day in, day out, from sun up to sun down, until the SNB wakes up and decides to push back by running the money printing press to the tune of CHF60-80 Billion at a pop - per month. E.g. There was that textbook ABCD pattern (World buying, SNB printing/selling; Rinse and repeat.), including it's "mandatory" 61.8% retracement. However, after which all potential ensuing suspense was interrupted by the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic, sending the Franc on an immediate 900 pip, +9% initial tear and well before any of the SNB peons could ever make it back into the office.
Of course that support zone between 0.875-0.9000 having been in place for the better part of 7 years, no great surprise that it caught that strait, end-of-the-world tear the Franc was on by forcing the SNB to go all-in at that point. (At which point you have also naturally unloaded, with both hands and eyes closed, on the Swiss Franc while front-running the SNB, even if you had to mortgage your unborn children to a local loan shark just so you could short more of the Franc and to load up endlessly on the Dollar, right?! - Good job!)
But what if, due to unforeseen circumstances, that initial 600+ pip free-ride was missed, all the way from 0.8750 to the present day 0.9400 level? Now what?
First of all, there is a perfectly formed Cypher working here - still on the weekly - with it's C-D leg consisting of an also a textbook 3-Drive, already having cleared the first two Fibonacci levels of it's three legs
... while heading strait for a major confluence(resistance) zone, naturally coinciding with the Cypher's PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone).
That confluence zone between 0.9500 -0.9650 consists, at a minimum, of;
2 year, descending Trend Line;
The (descending) Monthly 20 EMA;
The (descending) Weekly 50 EMA;
The 3rd (and final) Fibonacci extension of that weekly 3-Drive;
The (descending) Daily 200 EMA;
E.g. It is reasonable to assume that this pair will have difficulty to get above that 0.9600-0.9650 level, in no small part due to the already extended +8%, 34 (Daily) period strait rise which would take it up there.
Secondarily, it was established earlier that the USDCHF pair is currently in a Major Down Trend according to the Quarterly and Monthly charts, and in a strong Minor Up Trend due to the Weekly + Daily charts.
Put it all together and the first leg of this Counter-trend Trade points to a M.U.T. (maximum upside target) 0.9650 . That is the Exit for the First Leg .
As for the Entry for the First Leg ;
As it happens, this pair has just completed a Bearish Shark (harmonic) formation on the 4 hr. chart with the pair reacting to the PRZ, much as expected.
The expected retracement of this harmonic to it's First Price Target around 0.9340 , coinciding with the 4 hr. 20 EMA, is reasonably expected to provide a clean Entry for the first leg of this trade with a very favorable risk/reward ratio.
(There are reasonably reliable methods by which to enter trades, such as this up-leg, with constrained risk levels;
... but that's an entirely other conversation.)
Finally, put it all together;
... and this is what one is looking for here:
The up-leg of a counter-trend(!!) trade;
Entry: 0.9327-0.9317;
Target- Exit: 0.9560-0.9580;
Risk/Reward: 1:17.5;
Number of pips: 250;
Total expected trading period: 115 hours (4.8 days);
The End Game
Should chance favor the above plan/analysis/Trade Setup/outcome, that would bring a planned entry into the Primary (trend-wise; Down) Leg the forefront. (One has to cross bridges as they present themselves.)
In that case, one would expect a strong and immediate reaction in the PRZ of the (by then) valid Cypher on the weekly chart - which, if valid, is normally a very strong and reliable harmonic.
... and this is what one would be looking for, in that case:
The down-leg of a in-trend(!!) trade;
Entry: 0.9620-0.9640;
Target- Exit: 0.9200-0.9190;
Risk/Reward: 1:15;
Number of pips: 400-450;
Total expected trading period: 7 weeks (~70 days);
Note
The USDCHF currently being one of the primary carry trades , this pair's trajectory has far(ther) reaching implications for U.S. and Global equity index positioning - also referred to as: Risk On/Off.
Furthermore, due to the notable liquidity constrains of the CHF vs. it's peers, this pair is an instructive barometer on which to measure the ever-present state of the global game of musical chairs, staged by the various Central Banks of the world.
How to use trendlines when trading cryptocurrency 🎓A lot of newcomers have been asking for educational content because you don't understand why my strategies work and how I conclude that a particular price-action will likely happen on certain assets at certain price-levels. It's lovely that my followers aren't just seeking signals, but actually digests the charts I'm sharing and actively tries to expand their repertoire.
Search no further - here's an easy and free guide to trade cryptocurrency, using trendlines. 🤓
Important aspects of using this strategy
A really important step of this strategy is to consider the number of data points you make your trendline from.
In this educational scenario, I've used thicker lines for the trendlines with more data points and dashed lines for trendlines that almost can't be considered as a useful trend. As you can see, we have a very solid trendline, which makes it likely that some significant price-action will happen – eventually to the upside.
Another crucial aspect of the strategy (and every other strategy other than "hold and pray") is to have a take-profit- and invalidation-area.
We always want to know why we're in the position and why we're out of the position. In this particular scenario, I've decided that a convincing break of the strong, bullish trendline would be an invalidation for the trade. If the trendline breaks it doesn't make sense for me to be in the position anymore, since the trade is solely based on the trendline.
Furthermore, the take-profit areas of the trade are based on historic resistance areas. The highest take-profit area is based on a very weak trendline, which is why I wouldn't leave more than 10% of my initial position size to reach that.
This is an easy strategy for trading any asset, that anybody can use no matter how experienced.
Experienced traders also use this strategy. In my own opinion, simple strategies are the best; you'd be surprised how few indicators experienced traders use.
Feel free to ask any questions or share your thoughts about this strategy! 📝















