DON'T TRADE THESE SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES
When it comes to technical analysis,
the understanding of which support and resistance levels to not trade can be as important as knowing which ones to trade.
In this article, I will show you the structure levels that professional traders avoid to maximize their profits and minimize losses.
Invalidated support and resistance
Invalidated support/resistance is the structure that has a clear historical significance, but that lost its strength and was neglected by the market during the last 2 tests.
Have a look at that key horizontal support.
We can see that in the recent past, the price bounced from that multiple times, confirming its significance.
Then, the price suddenly broke and closed below that support.
According to the rules, that structure should turn into a resistance after a violation.
However, after its test, the price bounced and violated that to the upside.
The structure became invalid, and you should not trade that in future.
Resistance in a Bullish Trend
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, according to the rules its last higher high composes a key horizontal resistance.
USDJPY is trading in a strong bullish trend.
The price dropped once it set a new higher high higher close.
It composes a key horizontal resistance.
Always remember, that in a bullish trend, the price tends to set new higher highs and higher lows over time.
Quite often, the test of the level of the last high leads to a further bullish continuation and a formation of a new higher high.
For that reason, it is better not to trade such resistances.
Support in a Bearish Trend
In a bearish trend, the last lower low is always considered to be a key horizontal support.
Above is a price action on USDCHF.
The pair is bearish and recently set a new lower low.
It is a key horizontal support now.
However, in a bearish trend, the price tends to set a new low after a retracement. Most of the time, it does not respect the support based on the last lower low.
I recommend you not to trade such supports.
I always repeat to my students that key levels work, but they are not equal in their significance. While some of them are very strong, some are better to be avoided.
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Support and Resistance
Head and Shoulders Tutorial on Crude Oil ChartI have decided to start a short series of tutorials covering common instruments used in technical analysis.
In today's tutorial, we observe a successfully identified head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart of Crude Oil, resulting in a substantial movement of around 17%.
Here's how to find the instrument: navigate to the left sidebar and select 'Patterns,' where you will find 'Head and Shoulders.'
Analyzing and trading correctly involve the following steps:
1) Both shoulders must form within a rising or falling trend. In the case of that Oil chart, we observe a rising trend, indicating a potential short position.
2) The size of the head becomes our target for take profit (TP), and upon reaching TP, we close 80% of the position.
3) Ideally, volumes at the right shoulder should decrease, and upon breaking, they should increase.
Risk Management Strategy:
1) Limit each trade to no more than 2% of your deposit.
2) Always utilize stop-loss and take-profit orders.
3) Never trade money you are not prepared to lose.
4) Start with small budgets.
It is crucial to emphasize that risk management must be adhered to whenever you engage in trading!
Register and trade stocks and crypto using my link with a discount on commissions: bingx.com/invite/E6RCUFJT
5 Elements of the Best Key Level in Trading
What are the best key levels to trade?
Last year I analysed more than 1500 key structures on Forex, Gold, Crypto and Indexes.
In the today's article, I prepared for you a list of 5 elements of a perfect support and resistance for trading.
As always, remember that the best key levels are always on a daily time frame. So all the structures that we will discuss will be strictly on a daily.
Also, all the structures that I analyzed and traded are available on my TradingView page, so you can back test them by your own.
1. Clear historical significance
The structure that you spotted should act as a significant historical support or resistance.
Here are the important historical support and resistance that I spotted on USDCAD on a daily time frame.
2. Psychological significance
The structure that you identified should match with round numbers.
All the structures that we spotted on USDCAD match with psychological numbers.
3. Confluence with other technical tools
The best structure should align with other trading tools such as trend lines of Fibonacci levels, strengthening its significance.
After adding fibonacci levels and a significant falling trend line on the chart, the confluence was found in Resistance 6, Resistance 3, Resistance 2, Resistance 1, Support 2. Other structure does not match with technical tolls.
4. Volume
The level experiences high trading volumes, indicating strong participation and interest from market participants, especially smart money.
All the structures that we underlined show significant volume spikes. By volume spike, I mean a volume being higher than the average volume - a blue curve on volume.
5. Multiple touches
The more, the better. There are numerous instances where price has respected and reacted to the structure, confirming its strength (at least 2).
Only these 3 structures were confirmed by the multiple touches. These resistances will be considered the strongest ones.
That checklist will help you to identify the most significant structures from where you will be able to catch impulsive movement and make nice profits.
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How to Trade Support and Resistancesupport and resistance levels are crucial concepts that every trader needs to grasp. These levels represent key points on a chart where the price tends to reverse its direction. By analyzing historical price action, traders can identify these areas and strategize their trades based on how the price reacts upon reaching these levels.
The Simplicity and Complexity of S&R
While the idea of support and resistance is straightforward to understand, effectively trading these levels can be challenging due to psychological barriers and emotional involvement. Mastering support and resistance trading isn’t just about recognizing patterns; it’s also about understanding the human emotions driving those patterns.
What is Support and Resistance
Support is a price level where a currency’s downward trend is expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. It’s where buyers step in, viewing the currency as undervalued, thus preventing further price decline.
The OANDA:XAUUSD chart above depicts a notable support level of 2031. Historically, when the price of Gold reaches this level, it tends to initiate an upward trajectory. Traders can identify potential trading opportunities at this juncture and consider establishing long positions after the confirmation signal, such as a break of structure, signs of a liquidity sweep, or the order block.
Traders can also use the bullish candlestick pattern as an additional signal when considering support zones for buying opportunities.
In the FX:EURUSD pair, there is a noteworthy support zone extending from 1.0648 to 1.0666. Over several instances, the price has consistently demonstrated a pattern of bouncing upward from within this range, as illustrated in the chart.
Let’s see another example of support zones with stop-loss hinting.
The price level at 1.08924 serves as a significant support zone; however, it’s important to note that smart money often orchestrates moves that trigger stop-loss orders before driving the price upwards. Later in this S&R trading guide, we’ll delve into a detailed discussion of the concept of stop-loss hunting, complete with illustrative examples.
What is Resistance
Resistance levels are price levels at which the price tends to move in a downward direction.
Let’s analyze the chart provided above. The circled areas on the chart represent strong resistance zones where the price tends to move in a downward direction in the EURUSD pair. It’s worth noting that quite often, the price moves downward after triggering stop-loss orders in these areas. This phenomenon can be observed frequently in any currency pair.
The Psychology Behind These Levels
Fear and Greed: These are the two main emotions at play. At support levels, fear (of prices falling more) meets greed (for buying at a low price). At resistance levels, it’s the opposite; greed (for higher selling prices) meets fear (of prices dropping).
Group Thinking: Many traders are watching the same levels. When a lot of people act the same way (buying at support or selling at resistance), it reinforces these levels.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Because so many traders are watching these levels, their reactions to them can make the support and resistance predictions come true.
Formula of Support and Resistance
Pivot Point Calculation
The Pivot Point (PP) is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period:
Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
First-Level Support and Resistance
First Resistance (R1) This is calculated by doubling the pivot point, then subtracting the low of the previous period.
First Resistance (R1) = (2 x PP) – Low
First Support (S1) This is found by doubling the pivot point and subtracting the previous period’s high.
First Support (S1) = (2 x PP) – High
Second-Level Support and Resistance
Second Resistance (R2) This level is calculated by adding the difference between the high and low of the previous period to the pivot point.
Second Resistance (R2) = PP + (High – Low)
Second Support (S2) This is determined by subtracting the difference between the high and low of the previous period from the pivot point.
Second Support (S2) = PP – (High – Low)
Third Level Support and Resistance
Third Resistance (R3) Calculated by adding twice the difference between the pivot point and the low to the high.
Third Resistance (R3) = High + 2(PP – Low)
Third Support (S3) Found by subtracting twice the difference between the high and the pivot point from the low.
Third Support (S3) = Low – 2(High – PP)
These pivot point-based support and resistance levels are crucial tools for traders, providing potential points of market reversal or continuation. The pivot point is often seen as a marker of equilibrium between bullish and bearish market forces.
The Phenomenon of Stop-Loss Triggers at These Points
A stop-loss order is a tool used in trading to sell a security when it reaches a predetermined price, to limit potential losses. To understand how it relates to support and resistance, consider the following analogy:
Think of trading as a game where you establish a rule: if your score drops below a certain point, you decide to exit the game to prevent further losses. This rule resembles the concept of a “stop-loss” in trading.
Now, picture a scenario involving seasoned players, often represented by large funds, who aim to maximize their gains in the game. They observe that many players have set their exit points at a specific level, such as 100 points.
These experienced players intentionally create the impression that the game’s score is approaching that critical 100-point level. As the score gets closer to 100 points, other players become anxious and decide to exit the game (activating their stop-loss orders) to avoid more significant losses. This sudden mass exit results in a sharp decline in the game’s score.
Smart money takes advantage of this situation by purchasing more points at the lower price they anticipated. After acquiring these points at a discounted rate, they allow the game’s score to rebound, ultimately profiting when it reaches higher levels.
In essence, this illustrates how Informed Money, often represented by large funds, may manipulate the market by creating the illusion that prices are nearing significant support or resistance levels. This can trigger the activation of stop-loss orders by other traders, enabling the seasoned players to capitalize on lower prices before the market resumes its upward trajectory.
Trading Strategy for Support and Resistance
When trading support and resistance make decisions on their base consider the following points.
Identify Support and Resistance in Larger Time Frames: Locate these levels in extended time frames like H1, H4, and D1 to gain a clear understanding of the market’s pivotal points. This approach not only clarifies your perspective when trading in smaller time frames but also reduces confusion. Confusion often arises from too many levels, making it challenging to determine which levels present viable trading opportunities.
Patience: Wait for the price to reach these levels and look for additional signals.
Utilize Bearish and Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Employing candlestick patterns at these levels aids in decision-making and enables traders to strategically set take-profit and stop-loss orders.
Develop a Trading Bias: Establish a daily bias at the beginning of each week to assist in deciding whether to take long or short trades. Focus only on those levels that align with your trading bias.
In conclusion, discipline is paramount in trading. It’s essential to avoid overtrading and adhere strictly to your established trading plans. Using stop-loss orders is crucial in managing risk and protecting your capital. Additionally, limiting your focus to a fixed set of currency pairs allows for a more in-depth understanding of their market dynamics, leading to more informed trading decisions. Remember, consistency and discipline in following these practices can significantly enhance your trading effectiveness and help in achieving long-term success.
how to identify strong support and resistance
Historical Price Levels: The most basic method is to look at historical price charts. Strong support and resistance levels are often at prices where the market has repeatedly reversed or consolidated. These levels are more significant if they have been tested multiple times.
Round Numbers: Psychological levels often play a crucial role in trading. Prices such as 1.3000 in EUR/USD or 100 in USD/JPY are examples where traders might expect support or resistance.
KOG - Simple Trading Strategy Simple Trading Strategy - Generate your own take profit targets.
Today we're going to share with you a simple yet effective trading strategy that can be used on any instrument. Like any other trading strategy its not 100%, but, you can see from that illustration how effective it can be in keeping you in the right direction on a pair. You can add Moving averages to this as well as which ever indicators you prefer to use and fine tune the strategy to make it work for you. We must stress, with this strategy you have to have a confident ability in charting and have an understanding of support and resistance levels as well as key zones and regions of liquidity.
The bonus with the strategy is it can be applied to all time frames, it can be used to swing trade on longer time frames and to scalp on short time frames. So when we publish our daily morning reviews with our levels and say "LEVEL TO LEVEL" trading, this strategy gives you an idea of what we're suggesting. Also, when we share our 15M levels and zones you can apply this strategy to trade your way up or down to the target.
So lets begin:
1) Start with the 4H chart
2) Look for price action where the price was previously in the same range
3) Use the highs and the lows of swings to plot your support and resistance lines
4) Switch to the 1hr chart
5) You are looking for candle body closes above or below the support or resistance lines. The bigger the candle body close the more accurate the target above is.
We can use this strategy to take numerous trades in up and down until the target level is reached.
This strategy also helps you with your entries and exits. Once you plot the lines and see the price is in between two lines of support and resistance, you will know not to enter a trade. Wait for the pull back on the smaller timeframe or for your chosen indicator to give you the signal!!
NOTE:
• Lines can never be accurate but try to get them as precise as possible
• You must update your lines daily as support and resistance levels change
• You must have a risk strategy in place. On most occasions there will be a pullback or retracement on price which can put you in drawdown.
• Money and risk management are priority when using this strategy.
• Nothing is 100% but once you add the Excalibur target to the chart you have clearer idea of direction.
ALWAYS REMEMBER:
MAs and indicators are lagging, when using this strategy try to keep it simple and clean. Basic support and resistance levels along with a decent candle body close.
Try it, backtest it, apply it. Let us know your findings.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Best Technical Analysis Strategies for Trading Gold
If you want to trade Gold, but you don't know what strategy to trade, I prepared for you the list of 4 simple and profitable gold trading strategies.
Please, note that my list includes the indicator, swing, price action and smart money strategies, so you will certainly find the one that suites you.
Also, all the strategies will be strictly structure based.
It means that no matter which strategy you choose, you should start your analysis with identification of key levels on a daily time frame.
Example of structure analysis on Gold.
1. Breakout trading on a daily time frame
With that approach, we will be aiming to catch swing moves.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout - a daily candle close below a key support. A bearish continuation will be anticipated to the next closest daily support then.
Your bullish signal will be a bullish breakout of a key daily resistance.
Then you can buy aggressively or on a retest, expecting a bullish continuation to the next strong resistance.
In the example above, bearish breakout of a key daily support was a strong bearish signal that triggered a massive selloff.
This strategy is based only on a daily time frame analysis,
the next 3 strategies will be more sophisticated and involve multiple time frames analysis.
2. Price action confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should patiently wait for a test of one of the key structures that you spotted on a daily.
After that, you should monitor the reaction of the price to that on 4h/1h time frames.
Your signal to buy will be a formation of a bullish reversal price action pattern on a key support, while your bearish confirmation will be a bearish pattern on a key resistance.
Once you spotted a confirmation, you can anticipate a bullish/bearish movement, at least to the closest 4h structure.
In the example above, Gold tested a key daily support. The price formed a double bottom formation on that. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement initiated to the closest 4H resistance then.
3. Moving average confirmation strategy
For that method, you will need 2 moving averages: simple MA with 9 length and exponential MA with 20 length.
Once the market tests a key support, you should look for a crossover.
A simple MA should be above the exponential MA.
It will be your bullish signal.
After a test of a key resistance, look for an opposite crossover.
A simple MA should be below the exponential MA.
It will give you a strong signal to sell.
Here is how the MA crossover would help you to predict a bullish movement on Gold on an hourly time frame.
4. Smart money confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should look for a break of key daily structure on 4h/1h time frames.
After a violation of a key support, you should look for a bullish imbalance so that the price should return above the broken structure. That will be your signal to buy.
After a violation of a key resistance, look for a bearish imbalance. The price should come back below a broken structure. It will be your signal to sell.
After a test and a violation of a key daily resistance, Gold formed a bearish imbalance on a 4H time frame. It was a strong bearish signal.
All these strategies are very efficient. However, they will work after you learn to correctly identify key structures.
Let me know in a comment section which strategy do you prefer.
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Support and Resistance VS Supply and Demand. Important Lesson
In the today's post, I will compare support and resistance levels with supply and demand zones.
I will explain to you the difference between them and share important tips and examples.
What are support and resistance levels?
We also call them key levels. These are particular levels on a price chart from where in the past we saw significant bullish or bearish movements.
Key support will be a one single level, that has a historical significance and from where a bullish reaction will be anticipated.
The all-time low on USDCHF will be a perfect example of a key support.
It is one single level that was respected one time in the past and from where a bullish reversal initiated.
Key resistance will be a one single level on a price chart that has a historical significance and from where a bearish movement will be expected.
The all-time high on Gold will represent a key horizontal resistance.
That level was respected one time in the past and from that level exactly the market dropped heavily.
What are supply and demand zones?
In comparison to support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones are the areas on a price chart. The zones that are based on multiple touches and consequent strong bullish or bearish reactions.
Demand zone will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past, and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
The yellow area above will a good example of a demand zone.
You can see that the price tested that area 3 times, and each time the market respected different levels lying within that.
These 3 tests compose the demand area.
Supply zon e will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
In this example, a supply area on EURUSD is based on 2 touches of key levels, lying very close to each other.
On the chart above, I underlined 2 horizontal support levels - the single levels that were respected by the market multiple times, and a supply zone - the area that is based on tests of multiple levels lying close to each other.
Support and resistance levels give you SINGLE levels from where you can look for trading opportunities. While supply and demand zones represent the areas. After a test of a supply and demand zone, the market may react to a RANDOM level within that.
For newbie traders, it is highly recommendable to trade single key levels, while experienced traders can broaden their strategies and trade supply and demand zones as well.
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Mastering Trend Analysis in Crypto Trading: Tutorial !Unveiling the Art of Trend Analysis in Bitcoin Trading
Welcome to a comprehensive guide that will empower you with the skills to master trend analysis in Bitcoin trading. In this extensive tutorial, we'll explore every nuance of identifying trendlines, understanding structural points, and navigating the complexities of different market scenarios. Illustrated with practical examples and annotated charts, you'll gain insights into distinguishing between ranging markets and trending channels, and how significant breakouts and confirmations signal trend changes.
Deciphering Trendlines and Structural Points
1.1 Defining Trendlines:
Delve into the essence of trendlines and their crucial role in technical analysis.
Understand the significance of structural points: higher lows, higher highs, lower highs, and lower lows.
1.2 Identifying Trends in Bitcoin:
Analyze Bitcoin price charts to identify structural points that signify the emergence of upward or downward trends.
Explore examples of higher highs and higher lows in bullish trends and lower highs and lower lows in bearish trends.
Ranging Markets - When Trading Takes a Pause
2.1 Recognizing Ranging Conditions:
Differentiate between trending and ranging markets, highlighting the characteristics of sideways price action.
Emphasize the challenges and importance of patience during range-bound periods.
2.2 Analyzing Range-Bound Bitcoin:
Illustrate Bitcoin charts during ranging conditions, showcasing the absence of defined higher highs or lower lows.
Discuss strategies for navigating range-bound markets and waiting for clear trend signals.
Section 3: Trading Channels - Dynamic Play of Bulls and Bears
3.1 Understanding Channel Dynamics:
Introduce channels as a distinct form of trending, encompassing upward (ascending) and downward (descending) trends.
Explore how channels create dynamic opportunities for traders.
3.2 Decoding Channel Breakouts:
Explore Bitcoin charts in ascending and descending channels, emphasizing the significance of breakout points.
Discuss how trend changes are confirmed only after a sustained breakout and closure beyond a trendline.
Section 4: Putting Knowledge into Action - Real-Life Examples
4.1 Example 1: Trading Higher Highs in a Bullish Trend:
Dive into a specific Bitcoin chart showcasing a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows.
Discuss potential trading strategies aligned with the bullish trend structure.
4.2 Example 2: Navigating Lower Lows in a Bearish Downtrend:
Analyze a bearish trend scenario with lower highs and lower lows, emphasizing risk management strategies.
Discuss the psychological aspects of trading during downtrends.
4.3 Example 3: Channel Trading and Spotting Breakouts:
Examine a Bitcoin chart illustrating a channel, showcasing the dynamics of trading within the channel.
Discuss breakout scenarios and how to discern a genuine trend reversal.
Conclusion: Mastering the Art and Science of Bitcoin Trend Analysis
As you conclude this comprehensive journey through Bitcoin trend analysis, remember that expertise in this domain is a continual process. Regularly reassess your technical skills, stay attuned to market dynamics, and apply these principles with flexibility. Whether you're navigating ranging markets or identifying breakout points within channels, understanding trendlines is your compass in the vast landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
💡 Building a Solid Foundation | 📈 Trendlines Unveiled | 🔄 Navigating Ranges | 🚀 Channel Breakouts Decoded
💬 Join the conversation: Share your experiences in trend analysis, ask questions, and connect with a community dedicated to honing their Bitcoin trading skills. 🌐✨
Following the trend with support and resistance• It is always important to understand who is in control at the moment, buyers or sellers, and be aware that the trend can change very quick so its key to adapt and don’t have a bias. After you know what the trend is, then you can mark a high probability support or resistance level in different time frames.
• In an up trending currency, a support will always have a higher probability of holding and the resistance will not be too reliable, the opposite happens in a down trending currency. Also notice that when a resistance level in a uptrending move works, the pullback has low probability of creating new lows (lower lows) meaning it is not a strong move down, it could just be testing lower prices for liquidity and to continue the move up.
• It is common to see that a resistance once broken tends to be support and a support once broken tends to be resistance. This is a good spot to have a continuation of the trend (see example below).
• Support and resistance levels in high time frames like 6hr, daily and weekly that are strong pivot points can be known as key levels. These levels act as historical levels which means that have been relevant since months even years ago. These levels can change the trend.
• Price action around support and resistance levels can be similar to the price action at supply/demand zones (read "How to identify high quality Supply and Demand zones" link below), where price reaches the level with strength and then rejects, volume increases with no follow through and the candle closes with a wick but never below/above the support/resistance level.
• Also it is common to observe that price gets near a support/resistance area and breaks below/above, grabs liquidity and then comes back above/below the area. In this cases, enter the trade after it regains the level.
Best Trading Confirmation. Learn 95% Accurate Entry Signal
I have analyzed 1300 forecasts and signals that I shared on TradingView last year and found 95% accurate trading confirmation.
In this article, we will discuss multiple types of confirmations and their winning rate on Forex, Gold, Indexes, Crypto & Commodities.
First, let me introduce you to the types of analysis that I provided.
1 - Structure based forecast
I have shared more than 55 trading setup with key levels analysis:
Where the price is approaching a key daily horizontal support and resistance.
Here is the example of such a post.
Test of a key horizontal or vertical support/resistance turned out to be a poor trading signal.
Total accuracy of structure based forecasts is 38% .
Please, note that if we consider the market trend in our calculations,
the trend-following structure based setup will be 42% accurate, while a performance of a counter trend setup drops to 35%
2 - Structure breakout based forecast
I analyzed and posted 73 posts with a key structure breakout as a confirmation on a daily.
Above is the example of a such a forecast.
Key levels breakout turned out to be a strong bullish or bearish confirmation with 59% accuracy.
Trend direction did not affect the efficiency of a key structure breakout that much, with a 60% accuracy of a trend following setup versus 57% of counter trend.
3 - Structure based forecast with a single intraday confirmation
I shared more than 500 setups with a test of a key structure on a daily and a single price action based bullish or bearish confirmation on a 4h/1h time frame.
My intraday confirmation is a formation of a price action pattern with a consequent breakout of its neckline/trend line in the projected direction.
Please, check the example of such a signal.
Just a single intraday confirmation dramatically increases the accuracy of a structure based setup.
Average winning rate is 66%.
4 - Structure based forecast with multiple intraday confirmations
I spotted and posted 200+ forecasts with a test of a key structure on a daily and multiple price action based bullish or bearish confirmations on a 4h/1h time frame.
Multiple confirmations imply the formation of multiple price action patterns on 4/1h t.f.
Here is the example of such a setup on EURGBP.
Two or more confirmations on a key structure increase the average winning rate to 72%.
Among multiple confirmations, I found a 95% accurate bearish signal:
The market should be in a bearish trend.
The price should test a key daily structure resistance.
The market should form a rising wedge pattern on a 4h/1h time frames and the highs of the wedge should strictly test the key structure and should not violate them.
After a test of structure, the price should form a bearish price action pattern on the highs of the wedge.
Above is a setup with the best trading confirmation.
A bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a support of the wedge was a 95% accurate trading signal this year.
Of course, there are various confirmations, depending on a trading style. The ones that I shared with you are structure/price action based.
And I am truly impressed by their accuracy.
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Predict the clarity of the price, not it's direction☝️The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌
☝️ALL videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment.
Learn Ascending, Decending and Symmetrical Triangles | Powerful
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 simple and profitable types of a triangle pattern.
1️⃣ The first type of triangle is called a descending triangle.
It is a reversal price action pattern that quite accurately indicates the exhaustion of a bullish trend.
Setting a new higher high the market retraces and sets a higher low, then bulls start pushing again but are not able to retest a current high and instead the price sets a lower high and drops to the level of the last higher low setting an equal low.
Multiple lower highs compose a horizontal support that is called a neckline.
The price keeps trading in such a manner, setting lower highs and equal lows till the price sets a new lower low.
Most of the time, it gives a very accurate signal of a coming bearish move.
Please, note that a triangle formation by itself does not give an accurate short signal. The trigger that you should wait for is a formation of a new lower low.
Take a look at a descending triangle formation that I spotted on Crude Oil on a 4H time frame. Bearish movement was confirmed after a breakout of the neckline of the pattern.
2️⃣ The second type of triangle is called a symmetrical triangle. It is a classic indecision pattern. It can be formed in a bullish, bearish trend, or sideways market.
The price action starts contracting within a narrowing range, setting lower highs and higher lows.
Based on them, two trend lines can be drawn.
Breakout of one of the trend lines with a quite high probability indicates a future direction of the market.
Above is a great example of a symmetrical triangle.
Bullish breakout of its upper boundary - a falling trend line was a strong bullish confirmation.
3️⃣ The third type of triangle is called an ascending triangle.
It is a reversal price action pattern that quite accurately indicates the exhaustion of a bearish trend.
Setting a new lower low, the market retraces and sets a lower high, then bears start pushing again but are not able to retest a current low and instead the price sets a higher low and bounces to the level of the last lower high setting an equal high.
A sequence of equal highs compose a strong horizontal resistance that is called a neckline.
The price keeps trading in such a manner, setting higher lows and equal highs till the price sets a new higher high.
Most of the time, it gives a very accurate signal of a coming bullish move.
📍Please, note that an ascending triangle formation by itself does not give an accurate long signal. The trigger that you should wait for is a formation of a new higher high.
Ascending triangle formation helped me to accurately predict a bullish reversal on USDJPY. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish confirmation.
Learn to recognize such triangles and you will see how accurate they are.
Let me know what pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
ORDER BLOCK trading strategyThe order block trading strategy is based on the concept of smart money, focusing on identifying specific zones where institutional traders previously executed their orders. Once we have successfully identified these zones, we patiently wait for the price to revisit these levels.
By using a suitable strategy, we then enter our trades in the anticipated direction.
-What is an Order Block in Forex:
Order blocks are special zones within the market where significant buy or sell orders from major market participants, like institutional traders, have been previously executed.
These order clusters, situated in specific price regions, hold considerable influence over price action, market sentiment, and liquidity.
Order blocks serve as a specialized methodology to determine crucial support and resistance levels, derived from the trading behavior of institutional traders. These levels are subsequently employed as strategic points for initiating or concluding trades.
-Understanding Order Block in Trading:
In Forex or any other market, ict order block represent crucial price levels where we observe significant and aggressive price movements. These levels are characterized by large firms strategically placing their orders, which often results in the market moving forcefully from those points.
To influence the market in a specific direction, smart money or hedge funds execute orders worth billions of dollars at particular price levels. However, not all of their orders are immediately filled. As a result, smart money revisits these levels to execute the pending orders, leading to further movement in the desired direction.
-ICT Order Blocks Definition:
Order blocks can indeed be identified on any time frame, ranging from small time frame like 15m,30 m and m5 to larger time frames like daily or weekly charts.
Order blocks can be classified into two main types: Bullish Order Blocks and Bearish Order Blocks.
1. Bullish Order Block:
A Bullish Order Block is recognized as the last downward candle before the price experiences a significant and aggressive upward movement. It represents a key level where institutional traders placed substantial buy orders, causing the market to rally strongly from that point.
2. Bearish Order Block:
On the other hand, a Bearish Order Block is characterized by the last upward closing candle before the price undergoes a sharp and forceful downward movement. It signifies a critical level where large market participants, such as institutional traders, positioned significant sell orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market.
By identifying and analyzing these Bullish and Bearish Blocks, traders can gain insights into a potential reversal or continuation patterns and utilize them as entry or exit points for their trades.
Trading order blocks go beyond solely identifying the last up or down closing candle. To effectively trade order blocks, it is essential to consider several contextual factors, including:
1. Liquidity Hunt: Market participants, especially institutional traders, may strategically place their orders to trigger stop losses or create a liquidity imbalance. Understanding liquidity patterns and how they can influence price action is crucial.
2. Daily Bias: Evaluating the overall market sentiment and bias for the day is important. This involves considering factors such as news events, economic releases, and geopolitical developments that may impact the market and influence order-block behavior.
3. Interest Rates and Fundamentals: Fundamental factors, including interest rates, economic indicators, and central bank policies, can significantly influence market conditions. Understanding how these factors interact with order blocks can provide valuable insights for trading decisions.
By taking these contextual factors into account, traders can enhance their understanding of order blocks and make more informed trading decisions.
To identify order blocks, price action traders typically examine historical price movements on the chart to locate areas where the market has shown strong reactions.
-How to identifying order blocks:
1. Look for strong price reactions: Analyze the chart to identify areas where the price has displayed significant and notable reactions, such as sharp reversals, extended consolidations, or breakouts.
2. Mark potential order block levels: Once you identify these areas of strong price reactions, mark them as potential order block levels on your chart. These levels represent key price zones where institutional traders may have executed large orders.
3. Assess support and resistance characteristics: Consider how the price behaves with the marked order block levels. If the price bounces off a specific level multiple times, it indicates a robust level of support or resistance, depending on whether the price approached the level from above or below.
4. Watch for role reversal: When an order block level is breached, its role as support or resistance can reverse. For instance, a broken resistance level may transform into a support level, and vice versa. In such cases, traders often wait for a retest of the broken level before entering trades in the direction of the breakout.
By following these steps and considering the principles of support and resistance, traders can effectively identify and utilize order blocks in their trading strategies. However, it’s important to note that order block analysis is just one tool among many in a comprehensive trading approach.
-How To Trade Order Blocks:
The steps you’ve mentioned provide a general guideline for trading order blocks in forex. Here’s a breakdown of each step:
1. Point of Interest (POI): Start by identifying potential order blocks on higher time frames, such as daily and 4-hour charts. These could be areas of consolidation or strong price reactions. Once you’ve marked these POIs, move to the next step.
2. Optimization: Switch to lower time frames like 1-hour, 15-minute, or 5-minute charts to refine and optimize your POIs. By zooming in on these lower time frames, you can better analyze the price action within the identified areas.
3. Price Observation: Keep an eye on the price action in the higher time frame. Monitor how the price behaves as it approaches your POI. This observation helps you determine the strength of the order block and potential trading opportunities.
4. Rejection Analysis: When the price reaches your POI, switch to the lower time frame to examine how the order block reacts to the price. Look for signs of rejection, like fair value gap
5. Entry on Lower Time Frame: Once you’ve observed a rejection or a significant reaction at the order block on the lower time frame, you can plan your entry. Look for suitable entry signals, such as a breakout, pullback, FVG price Imbalance, and more
6. Stop Loss Placement: To manage risk, it’s important to place a stop loss order. Consider setting your stop loss 1 to 5 pips below the order block ict to allow for potential market noise and fluctuations. This helps protect your trading capital in case the trade doesn’t go as planned.
Remember, these steps provide a general framework for trading ict order blocks, but it’s crucial to develop a trading strategy that suits your risk tolerance, trading style, and market conditions.
It’s recommended to thoroughly back test and practice your strategy before applying it with real money. Additionally, staying updated with market news and having proper risk management practices are essential for successful trading.
Mastering the Art of Identifying Support and Resistance Levels📈
Mastering the Art of Identifying Support and Resistance Levels in Forex Trading 📈💰
✅In the world of forex trading, support and resistance levels play a crucial role in understanding market dynamics and making informed decisions. These key levels indicate areas where the price of a currency pair is likely to encounter obstacles, either in its upward or downward movements. Being able to identify these levels accurately is a key skill that every forex trader should possess. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of identifying support and resistance levels in forex and provide examples to enhance your understanding.
Here are 2 supports that I spotted on Gold on a daily time frame.
✅ Identifying Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels in forex can be identified through various methods, including:
1. Price Action Analysis: Analyzing historical price movements to identify areas where the price has repeatedly reversed or stalled.
2. Trend Lines: Drawing trend lines to connect swing highs and swing lows to identify potential support and resistance levels.
3. Moving Averages: Using moving averages to identify dynamic support and resistance levels based on the average price over a specific period.
And here is a perfect example of a key resistance on EURUSD on a daily.
✅ Examples:
Example 1: Price Bounce Off Support Level
In the chart of a currency pair, if the price consistently reverses or bounces off a particular price level, it indicates a strong support level. Traders can observe how the price reacts to this level and consider it in their trading decisions.
Example 2: Resistance Turned Support
Sometimes, a resistance level that was previously difficult for the price to break through becomes a new support level after it is breached. Identifying such levels can provide traders with valuable insights into potential reversal or continuation patterns.
These are the intraday structures on GBPUSD on a 4H.
Mastering the art of identifying support and resistance levels in forex trading can significantly enhance a trader’s ability to make informed decisions and improve overall trading performance. By incorporating these key levels into your analysis and decision-making processes, you can gain a deeper understanding of market movements and potential trading opportunities. Happy trading! 📊🔍
The Most Important Chart For 2024For me it's important to keep a macro picture in mind to set the context around my trading. What is going to drive everything this year is what happens to the USD. Will the FOMC cut rates? Is the economy as strong as it seems? Are things shaky under the surface?
No matter what happens in the US economy, it'll be caught by this chart. You could use the dollar index futures but it's not perfect and lacks a lot of liquidity. In general most "USD baskets" have EUR as the largest holding, which makes this pair a good inverted proxy.
We can see the MarketWebs are showing bullish 80% rules not only for the year but also for the month. The 80% rule means that there is an 80% chance that price will move from one side of value to the other. It's likely that January will end before its 80% rule plays out, but we are more firmly into the 80% rule for 2024 and many months still to go!
Learn Profitable Doji Candle Trading Strategy
In the today's post, I will share my Doji Candle trading strategy.
This strategy combines the elements of multiple time frame analysis, price action and key levels.
Step 1
Analyze key levels on a daily time frame.
Identify vertical and horizontal supports and resistances.
Here are the key structures that I spotted on on AUDUSD.
Step 2
Look for a formation Doji Candle on a key structure.
This rule is crucially important: we will trade only the Doji candles that are formed on key levels.
From key supports, we will look for buying, and we will look for shorting from key resistances.
Look at this Doji Candle that was formed on a key daily support on AUDUSD.
Step 3
Look for a horizontal range on a 4h/1h time frames.
Doji Candle signifies indecision. Quite often, you will notice the horizontal ranges on lower time frames when this candlestick is formed.
Here is a horizontal range that was formed on a 4H time frame on AUDUSD after a formation of Doj i.
Step 4
Look for a breakout of the range.
To sell from a key resistance, we will need a bearish breakout of the support of the range. That will be our bearish confirmation.
To buy from a key support, we will need a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range. It will be our bullish signal.
Here is a confirmed breakout of the resistance of the range with a 4H candle close above. That is our bullish confirmation on AUDUSD.
Step 5
Buy aggressively or on a retest.
After you spotted a confirmed breakout of the range, open a trading position aggressively or on a retest.
Personally, I prefer trading on a retest.
If you sell, a stop loss should be above the high of the range and your target should be the closest key daily support.
If you buy, your stop loss should be below the low of the range and a take profit will be on the closest daily resistance.
On AUDUSD, a long position was opened on a retest. Stop loss is lying below the lows. Take profit is the closest resistance.
Here is how the great strategy works!
Always patiently wait for a confirmation! That is your key to successful trading Doji Candle.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Navigating Support and Resistance with Renko ChartsToday we continue our deep dive into support and resistance levels and explore how traders can effectively utilize Renko charts and Donchian channels to identify these price zones. Renko charts, known for their simplicity and ability to filter out market noise, provide a unique perspective on price movement. We'll discuss how Renko charts work and demonstrate their effectiveness in pinpointing support and resistance levels with the help of Donchian channels. Donchian channels are a popular technical analysis tool that maps out the highest highs and lowest lows over a given period.
By combining the insights from Renko charts and Donchian channels, traders gain a comprehensive approach to detecting key support and resistance areas in any market condition. Whether you're a novice trader or an experienced professional, we hope this video aids anyone seeking to enhance their ability to define support and resistance for any asset.
[Price Action#1] What is the Breakout and Breakdown?What is the Breakout?
Breakout is a price moving outside a defined resistance level with increased buying volume. The breakout traders enter the long positions after the price breaks the resistance level.
What is the Breakdown?
Breakdown is a price moving outside a defined support level with increased selling volume. The breakdown traders enter the short positions after the price breaks the support level.
Very basic understanding of support and resistance areas (2 min)In trading, support and resistance are key concepts that help traders analyze price movements and make informed decisions. Here's a basic explanation:
Support:
Definition: Support is a price level at which a financial instrument (like a stock, currency pair, or commodity) tends to stop falling and may even bounce back up due to buyers.
Analogy: Think of support like a floor that prevents the price from falling further. It's a level where buyers are more inclined to enter the market, seeing the current price as attractive.
Resistance:
Definition: Resistance is a price level at which a financial instrument tends to stop rising and may face difficulty moving higher due to seller pressure.
Analogy: Picture resistance as a ceiling that prevents the price from going higher. It's a level where sellers may be more active, considering the current price as too high.
In summary, support and resistance are like psychological levels in the market where buying and selling interest tends to cluster. Traders use these levels to make decisions about when to enter or exit trades, set stop-loss orders, or identify potential trend reversals. When the price approaches support, traders may look for buying opportunities, while at resistance, they may consider selling or taking profits.






















