Market Manipulations. Bullish Trap (smart money concepts)
In the today's article, we will discuss how smart money manipulate the market with a bullish trap.
In simple words, a bullish trap is a FALSE bullish signal created by big players.
With a bullish trap, the smart money aims to:
1️⃣ Increase demand on an asset, encouraging the market participant to buy it.
2️⃣ Make sellers close their positions in a loss.
When a short position is closed, it is automatically BOUGHT by the market.
Take a look at a key horizontal resistance on AUDCHF.
Many times in the past, the market dropped from that.
For sellers, it is a perfect area to short from.
Bullish violation of the underlined zone make sellers close their position in a loss and attracts buyers.
Then the market suddenly starts falling heavily, revealing the presence of smart money.
Both the sellers and the buyers lose their money because of the manipulation.
There are 2 main reasons why the smart money manipulates the markets in a such a way:
1️⃣ - A big player is seeking to close a huge long position
When a long position is closed, it is automatically SOLD to the market.
In order to sell a huge position, smart money needs a counterpart who will buy their position.
Triggering stop losses of sellers and creating a false demand, smart money sell their position partially to the crowd.
2️⃣ - A big player wants to open a huge short position
But why the smart money can't just close their long position or open short without a manipulation?
A big sell order placed by the institutional trader, closing their long position, can have an impact on the price of the asset. If the sell order is large enough, it can push the price downward as sellers outnumber buyers. Smart money are trying to balance the supply and demand on the market, hiding their presence.
It is quite complicated for the newbies and even for experienced traders to recognize a bullish trap.
One of the efficient ways is to apply multiple time frame analysis and price action.
Remember, that most of the time bullish traps occur on key horizontal or vertical resistances.
After you see a breakout, analyze lower time frames.
Quite often, after a breakout, the market starts ranging.
After a breakout of a key daily resistance, gold started to consolidate within a narrow range on an hourly time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range will indicate a strength of the sellers and a highly probable bullish trap.
Remember, that you can not spot all the traps, and occasionally you will be fooled by smart money. However, with experience, you will learn to recognize common bullish traps.
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Support and Resistance
The Best Strategy to Apply Trailing Stop Revealed
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my strategy to apply a trailing stop.
Please, note that I am applying a trailing stop only in trend-following trades and only when a trade is opened on a key level. I trade price action patterns, so the following technique will be appropriate primarily for price action traders. Moreover, my entries are strictly on a retest.
1️⃣
Spotting a price action pattern, I am always waiting for its neckline breakout. (if we talk about different channels, then by a neckline we mean its trend line)
Once I see a candle close below/above the neckline, I set my sell/buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will strictly lie below the lows of the pattern if we buy and above the highs of the pattern if we sell.
I spotted a horizontal trading range on an hourly time frame on AUDUSD. I set a sell limit order after a breakout of its neckline. Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
2️⃣
Once we are in a trade, you should measure the pattern's range (distance from its high to its low based on wicks) and then project that range from the entry to the direction of the trade.
In the picture above, the pattern range and its projection are the underlined blue areas.
Once the price reaches the projection of the pattern's range, you should move your stop loss to entry and make your position risk-free.
Move stop to breakeven in traders' slang.
3️⃣
Then you should let the market go.
📈If you are holding a long position, you should let the market retrace and set a higher low and then a new higher high or AT LEAST an equal high. Once these conditions are met, you can trail your stop and set it below the last higher low.
📉If you are holding a short position, you should let the market retrace and set a lower high and then a new lower low or AT LEAST an equal low. Once these conditions are met, you can trail your stop and set it above the last lower high.
In the example above, stop loss was modified when the price set a new lower high. Stop loss is now lying above that.
Catching a trending market you should trail your stop based on new higher lows / lower highs that the price sets. Occasionally you will catch big winners.
How do you apply a trailing stop?
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Learn FAKEOUT, BREAKOUT, RETEST | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 very important market situations that every trader must be able to recognize: breakout, retest, and fakeout.
❗️ Please, note that the essential element of all these terms is structure: vertical and horizontal key levels.
📍 Breakout is a situation when the market breaks the identified horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line.
Breakout is a very important event that signifies the willingness of buyers/sellers to violate the structures. Violation of support signifies a strong selling pressure, while a violation of resistance signifies a high buying momentum.
Usually, the structure breakout is confirmed with a candle close.
For confirmation of a breakout of support, a candle close below that is needed.
For confirmation of a breakout of resistance, a candle close above is required.
Take a look at a bearish breakout of a key support on Gold. After the breakout, the broken support turned into a resistance and was respected multiple times. It was broken by the buyers then and turned into a support again.
📍 Retest is the situation when the price returns to broken horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line after a confirmed breakout.
For a structure breakout, high trading volumes are needed. Usually, after a breakout, the market participants are locally exhausted and a correctional movement follows. That may lead to a retest of a broken structure.
Most of the time, after a retest, a strong impulse follows. For that reason, for many traders, the retest is applied for trading entries.
Here is how nicely the price violated a key support on Gold. After a violation, the market became oversold and the price retested the broken structure.
📍 Fakeout or false breakout is the situation when the price has not enough strength to maintain its direction after a retest of a broken structure. Instead, the market returns below/above the broken resistance/support.
Above, is the example of a false breakout on EURUSD.
Fakeout is one of the main reasons why structure traders lose money.
One of the ways to avoid fakeout is to monitor trading volumes during a structure breakout. A volume spike is needed to confirm the strength of the market participants, while low volumes most of the time signify a manipulation.
Learn to spot breakouts and false ones, and try to trade on a retest.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Ichimoku Cloud: How To GuideHave you ever considered using the Ichimoku Cloud, a powerful and versatile technical analysis tool that goes beyond traditional chart analysis?
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Discover the Ichimoku Cloud, technical analysis tool developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s.
This method visually represents support and resistance levels, providing crucial insights into trend direction and momentum.
Let's delve into the key aspects of the Ichimoku Cloud, providing you with insights and skills to take another step up in your trading game.
1. Understanding Ichimoku Cloud
Components of the Cloud:
The Ichimoku Cloud comprises five key elements — Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B, and the Kumo (cloud). Grasping the role of each component is fundamental to interpreting the cloud's signals.
- Kijun Sen (red line): The standard line or base line, calculated by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 26 periods.
- Tenkan Sen (blue line): The turning line, derived by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past nine periods.
- Chikou Span (green line): The lagging line, representing today’s closing price plotted 26 periods behind.
- Senkou Span (red/green line): The first Senkou line is calculated by averaging the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen and plotted 26 periods ahead. The second Senkou line is determined by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 52 periods and plotted 26 periods ahead.
It’s not necessary to memorize the computations; understanding their interpretation is key.
2. Trading Strategies with Ichimoku
Kumo Twists and Turns:
The twists and turns of the Kumo offer valuable signals. A bullish twist occurs when Senkou Span A crosses above Span B, while a bearish twist is signaled by the reverse. These crossovers present entry and exit points.
The Power of Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen:
The relationship between the faster Tenkan-sen and the slower Kijun-sen offers additional insights. A bullish crossover suggests a potential uptrend, while a bearish crossover may indicate a trend reversal.
Utilizing the Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span (Chikou) acts as a momentum indicator. Confirming its position relative to the price and cloud provides a powerful confirmation tool for trend strength.
3. Practical Tips for Ichimoku Trading
Timeframe Considerations:
Adapt your approach based on the timeframe. Longer timeframes offer a broader market perspective, while shorter timeframes can reveal short-term trends.
Risk Management:
Like any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Set stop-loss orders, and ensure risk-reward ratios are carefully considered before executing a trade.
Backtesting and Practice:
Before going live, engage in extensive backtesting and paper trading. This will hone your understanding of Ichimoku signals and enhance your ability to interpret them in real-time.
4. How to Interpret Ichimoku Lines
Senkou Span:
- If the price is above the Senkou span, the top line serves as the first support level while the bottom line serves as the second support level.
- If the price is below the Senkou span, the bottom line forms the first resistance level while the top line is the second resistance level.
Kijun Sen:
- Acts as an indicator of future price movement.
- If the price is higher than the blue line, it could continue to climb higher. If below, it could keep dropping.
Tenkan Sen:
- An indicator of the market trend.
- If the red line is moving up or down, it indicates a trending market. If it moves horizontally, it signals a ranging market.
Chikou Span:
- A buy signal if the green line crosses the price from bottom-up.
- A sell signal if the green line crosses the price from top-down.
As a trend-following indicator, Ichimoku can be applied across various markets and timeframes. Emphasizing trading in the direction of the trend, it helps avoid entering the wrong side of the market.
With its combination of support and resistance levels, crossovers, oscillators, and trend indicators, Ichimoku simplifies complex analysis, making it an invaluable tool for traders seeking a comprehensive approach to technical analysis.
Dive into the charts, explore the strategies, happy trading!
4 Types of Gap You MUST Know in Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss a very common pattern that is called gap.
In technical analysis, the gap is the difference between the closing price of the previous candlestick and the opening price of the next candlestick.
📈Gap up represents a situation when the price bounces up sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another. The price gap that appears between them is called gap up.
📉Gap down represents a situation when the price drops sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another, the price gap between the closing price of the previous candle and the opening price of the next candle is called a gap down.
From my experience, I realized that with a high probability the gap tends to be filled. For that reason, once you see a gap, consider trading opportunities around that.
Depending on the market conditions where the gap appears, there are several types of a gap to know:
1️⃣Common gap appears in a weak, calm market. When the trading volumes are low and the market participants are waiting for some trigger, or the asset reached a fair value price.
Above, there is a perfect example of a common gap that was formed on Dollar Index on an hourly time frame.
2️⃣Breakaway gap appears in a situation when the price suddenly breaks a structure (support or resistance) in a form of a gap.
Such a gap usually confirms a structure breakout.
I spotted a perfect breakaway gap on Dollar Index. The market violated a solid horizontal support with that.
3️⃣Runaway gap usually appears when the market is growing or falling sharply. It signifies the dominance of buyers/sellers and highly probable continuation. Usually such gaps are not filled.
Runaway was a perfect indicator of a strength of buyers on US30 Index.
4️⃣Exhaustion gap is, in contrast, appears around major key levels and signifies a highly probable reversal. The exhaustion gap is usually confirmed by a consequent strong opposite movement that fills the gap.
US100 formed an exhaustion gap, trading in a strong bullish wave. After that the gap was filled and the market started to fall rapidly, forming a breakaway gap.
Learn to recognize gaps on a chart and learn to interpret them. It will increase the accuracy of your technical analysis.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Eagle Eye Investor looks at both Macro and Micro angles. Having an Eagle Eye from above on the sector gives us an overall perspective how the group of companies with similar business might perform. Having seen the performance or out performance of the sector we can than fine tune our direction towards one or two top companies of that particular sector or the companies that look best on charts in that particular sector so that we can maximize our gains from the market.
Investor has to understand that this is not a foolproof plan of investing and lot of other things like fundamentals of the companies one is investing in and other factors should be considered before investing. However more often than not when a sector outperforms or an index outperforms others indices generally companies of that particular business segment tend to do well along with that particular index.
Vice versa if that particular sector is giving a breakdown or is sending weak signals on the chart one can decrease allocation or exit the sector or investment in the sector if needed based on the chart or fundamentals of that particular company. To do this one has to know the charts well and understand buy and sell signals on the chart pretty well. To become an expert in Techo-Funda analysis you can contact us or interact in the reply to this message.
Today we will have a look at Bank Nifty to understand this further. Below is the chart of Bank Nifty:
From the look at the chart we can understand Bank Nifty has taken support at 200 days EMA and is going towards 50 days EMA. Once Bank nifty crosses 50 days EMA there can be a very good rally seen in this particular index. The rally can be in the range of 2 to 8% is what we can assume based on the resistances seen in the form of red lines on the chart. The green lines in addition of 200 EMA are supports. Right now 50 EMA will act as a resistance but if we get a closing above this ‘Mother line’, 50 EMA might also become a support. The analysis presented here is for you to understand how support and resistances work and should not be considered for buying or selling Bank Nifty. The purpose is to provide our readers a perspective for looking always at the bigger picture. An investor should have the knowledge of Micro and well as Macro causes affecting the investment.
Having understood that Banking index might do well an investor can further have a look at constituents of this index which are Hdfc Bank, Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, PNB, SBI, Axis bank, AU bank, Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda as well as Bandhan Bank. After having studied the technical and the fundamentals of all these companies an investor can further decide where he can make a positional or long term investment. Such an approach will definitely act as a safety net for investor. This kind of approach can also be compared to taking the second opinion of a Doctor before going for any medical procedure.
Remember that now all the stocks in an index will move equally some will move faster, some will move at the same pace, some will move slowly and some will not move at all or move negatively. You have to be smart in selection of your stocks from the particular index and you will surely be able to beat the market and Ace the Art of investing.
Disclaimer:
Investment in stocks and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature.
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
Trading Initial BalancesWhat Are Initial Balances?
Initial balances refer to a specific time frame at the beginning of a trading session, typically the first few minutes or hours when a market opens. During this period, traders closely observe price movements and volume to gauge market sentiment and establish trading strategies for the rest of the session.
How Initial Balance Trading Works
The concept of initial balance trading is rooted in the idea that the price and volume behavior during the initial balance period can provide valuable insights into the day's trading potential. Here's how it works:
1. Observation: Traders closely watch the price action and volume during the initial balance period, which often includes the first 30 minutes to one hour of a trading session. This is a critical phase for assessing market dynamics.
2. Key Levels: Traders identify key price levels during the initial balance period, such as the high and low points. These levels can serve as significant reference points for the day's trading activities.
3. Breakouts: Breakouts above or below the initial balance range can signal potential trading opportunities. A breakout above the initial balance high may suggest bullish momentum, while a breakout below it may indicate bearish sentiment.
This is My Favourite ICT Day Trading ModelHello traders,
This is the complete breakdown of my favourite ICT Day Trading Model.
This is so easy to replicate on any two time frames. One must be higher, while the second one which is for entry should be lower.
The higher time frame is for market direction, orderflow, trend.
Identify your discount and premium levels on higher time frame.
above 50% of your fib is premium, while below 50% is your discount.
If price is bearish, you are to look for sell opportunities when price retrace back to your premium levels.
Then go to your lower time frame to look for selling opportunities.
Your entry should be taken mostly within London kill zone.
For you to have a quality A+ trade setup, time and price must align together with your trade idea.
Your trade idea have a high probability of working out if you take your entry within London Kill Zone.
Look at my chart diagram to understand the model.
Trade Reversals Successfully - Key Price Action to look forIn the video I talk through the two trades namely trading continuation with Trend and then trading Countertrend Reversals. Both have their own price action points but are very different.
I review a continuation trade and the setups I look for when trading from level to level...but the main focus on the video is trading Reversals which can be very rewarding but also very difficult.
I like to stick to a few key points when looking for reversals, and they are :-
- Trade off an extension into a key level
- Trade off a higher low (for buys) or lower high (for sells)
- M pattern for entry confirmation or a minor lower high
In the video I explain the reasoning and how risk is managed.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
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Ichimoku Setups (for beginners)Here are the entry conditions in detail:
Before getting in a trade, find your trend confirmation signals.
They let you know which direction the market is moving in.
Trend confirmation signals (for a buy):
- 2 candle lows above the cloud (shows that the trend has changed)
- Lagging line above the cloud
- Price/Lagging line has to be above the trendline
Trend confirmation signals (for a sell):
- 2 candle highs below the cloud (shows that the trend has changed)
- Lagging line below the cloud
- Price/Lagging line has to be below the trendline
Now, for getting in a trade, use any one of these entry triggers:
- Turning line above Standard line for a buy (blue line above red line)
- Standard line above Turning line for a sell (red line above blue line)
- Price goes to the Standard line (blue line)
- Price goes to Span A (the top of a green cloud or bottom of a red cloud)
For an extra confirmation, wait for candlestick patterns (like an engulfing candle) which happen when price goes to Span A or the Standard line.
Mastering Market StructureBullish Market Structure:
Bullish Vibes! It's all about making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. When you spot this pattern, you're riding the wave of optimism in the market, and it's your chance to seize the moment and soar with the bulls.
Consolidation Market Structure:
Consolidation Market Structure is all about lateral movement, where the market forms Equal Highs and Equal Lows. It's a phase of uncertainty, with neither bulls nor bears holding a clear advantage. Traders often await a breakout to determine the next market direction.
Bearish Market Structure:
Bearish Market Structure: Get ready for Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Sellers are in control, creating a solid downtrend. Traders look for short entry opportunities on retracements.
Live Trades and Price Action setups explainedIn the video I review my trades on the DOW Jones Index for the session and talk through the setups, price action and reasoning for the trades. I also talk through the overall bias for the session and the missed opportunity from my sessions plan.
Feel free to join in our live trading room....link in the signature below.
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** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Analysis of the psychology and Price Action of a momentum moveIn this video I take a look at the psychology of a phase of Price Action that we traded in out Live Trading Room.
I review the key price action that I am looking for to get involved in the action for a new momentum push up/down. Our aim in trading is always to enter a trade in the 'unknown' as traders start to realise they are on the wrong side of the action...this gives us the biggest payouts.
Intraday Trading is a process of doing the analysis, reviews and having confidence in your read when LIVE trading.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
How to find Key Price Action zones for Daytrading successPrepping a market for daytrading is an important part of my process and understanding and identifying the KEY LEVELS is the major part of that process.
We have to build a Price Action picture of what may happen and what levels may be targeted so we will be ready for a trade. Understanding who (buyers or sellers) is getting caught off side and levels the market is targeting, will set us up for the higher probability trades.
I discuss a few key concepts for Intraday trading and how I identify the important zones. I show some trade examples and high probability trade zones.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
My thoughts on the coming week ... Whats up gold gang! .. price has closed above the monthly level .. 1000 pips ish in a week wow! thats crazy
im expecting a small retracement before lifting off once more for gold this week ..
the candle closed with no top wick, so a retrace is likely before more upside due to the ongoing conflict in Israel
Ill be back later for the official outlook .. until then .. enjoy your sunday
tommy
Yen-Ruble TutorialAs you can see market forces react on investor attitude with spirits, investors make decisions based on their mood and statistics. We see gold chart is jumping from fear territory, fashioning greed in mood, while Yen-Rub is plummet from the euphoria. While other assets symbolize peril for this manner, we believe market forces move in cycles in the twinkling of an eye. Majoring in this pasture as luck may have it transmit analyst on an even keel amid angel stew.
Trading in the Asian-Russian ReneissacneAs you can see last months correlations between Yuan-Ruble pair with gold spot prices present good levels to take long and short positions to hold them for a month. To do this look at the bottom of the chart where are prices of commodities and pairs which play role in current geopolitics related to the said arbitrage opportunities. Look for big upside swings to take positions and wait for a sell-offs afterwards. This is pretty like balancing on the ocean waves.
Draw the MASTER PATTERN CONCEPTS by handHOW TO MANUALLY DRAW THE MASTER PATTERN CONCEPTS
# STEP 1 - Identify the Contraction Phase
The contraction phase consists of a tightening of price where there is a simultaneous lower high and higher low, this is where the supply and demand equalize in the market. This is a leading indication that volatility is coming next.
You want to look for places where you find contraction/constriction of price, where it clearly looks like its moving into a defined consolidation zone.
STEP 2 - Identify the Expansion Phase
The expansion phase is the 2nd phase in the market, its known as the manipulation phase. It reveals incoming volatility entering into the market, this is where most retailers lose their money.
This phase can be defined as price breaking out of the contraction box, and whip sawing around the value line. This is the accumulation phase where the market makers accumulate their inventory from weaker hand holders.
Price usually whipsaws around the value line 4-7 times before the 3rd phase in the market starts, which is the trend phase.
STEP 3 - Identify Liquidity Lines
Liquidity lines are where the retailers place their stop losses, it is an excellent places to enter and exit the market.
These can be defined as HH or LL points on the chart where there are swing high and swing low points. By anticipating where these stop loss levels are located you can be aware where there are pools of resting liquidity. These are excellent places to enter or exit the market.
Understanding Contraction / Expansion and Liquidity are key price action concepts that help you understand trading from an institutional level and give you a deeper insight into the intentions of the market.
How i trade using engulfing candles Good afternoon gold gang! I thought i would jump on here with an educational piece on how i trade using engulfing candles along with my algo levels
Whenever you get a big push in the markets, this may be a news item or simply a market open, we normally see a candle being "engulfed" .. now this means that the candle closed bigger than the previous .. imagine it over shadowing.
When this happens, price likes to come back to collect orders from this level at some point in the future. Check the levels marked on my charts with a white box.
The best englufing levels for me, occur at my algo levels. Observe the chart and see what i mean. Very powerful.
I simply mark the level and await price to come back before making the decision to long or short it (based on the lower time frame confirmation)
My algo levels are very powerful and are a constant draw on price as you can see .. they are not random and are always the same distance apart .. just look at the respect they get.
Your homework is to go back on to the chart and mark all the engulfing candles you find on the 1 hour and above timeframe. See for your self how many times price comes back
catch you this evening for the outlook!!
follow along for more educational posts
tommy
Ultimate Guide For Trading INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN
Hey traders,
Inverted head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern.
It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bearish trend and a bullish accumulation.
⭐️The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure:
Trading in a bearish trend the price sets a lower low and retraces setting a lower high (left shoulder),
then the market goes lower setting a new low but instead of setting a new lower high, the price returns back to the level of a previous lower high setting an equal high (head).
After that bears start pushing again but with an amplifying bullish pressure, the market sets a higher low and returns back to equal highs setting a new one (right shoulder).
🔔Equal highs form a horizontal structure called a neckline.
Here is a perfect example of a completed inverted head and shoulders patterns, that was formed in a bearish trend on Gold on a 4H time frame.
Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal predictor though.
The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern.
Above, the breakout of the neckline is the indication of a confirmed bullish reversal.
📈Then a long position can be opened.
For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested.
Safest stop is lying at least below the right shoulder.
However, in case the heights of the right shoulder and head are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss below the head level.
🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure resistances.
After a retest of a broken neckline, Gold bounced. Entry was lying on a neckline, stop loss below the right shoulder, target was based on a closes strong resistance.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
📈 Charting Lesson: What do I even look for in a chart?!Full-time trader here. Sharing some knowledge for free . If this helps you, show some love: follow me for more and like this idea. 👍
Why do I need a chart anyway?
First, we need to convince you of why you need a chart. No problem. Let's say you're a fundamental analysis investor. The stock has to make sense. The stock has to last forever. It needs to be a growth stock. Let's say... NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA is a good example over the last few years. Now that you found a good candidate, when are you going to buy? At an all-time high? At an all-time low? One share a day? One share a week? No. Buying a stock without looking at the chart is like driving with a blindfold. Don't do it.
Pull up a chart.
Observe past price action.
Try to find a trend.
Plan your entry.
Do this even if you're going to hold for 20 years.
When I pull up a chart, what do I look for? I just see a bunch of lines.
Let's first make sure you are looking at the correct view. On the top left corner of your screen, you'll see your user icon. Next to it is the ticker. Next to it is the interval. Next to THAT is the chart type. Make sure you select "CANDLES". Not "hollow candles". Here's how it should look:
Mine may look a bit different because I changed my theme. But the candles is what we care about.
Now the juicy part.
Support and Resistance are Key Reversal Levels.
When you open a chart, the first thing you want to do is look for areas where the price has reached in the past and reversed or got rejected or bounced. For example, every time SPY reached 443.37 in the chart above, it reversed. Let's call this a, "key level".
If the price is ABOVE that key level, the line is called SUPPORT.
If the price is BELOW that key level, the line is called RESISTANCE.
Using the horizontal line tool, make sure you have these key support and resistance levels on your chart. Try to ONLY buy near support and sell near resistance.
If the stock is choppy, do your best. If you can't, skip it and go to another stock. There's thousands!
Stocks, Currencies, and Cryptos Move in Trends. Up or Down.
Next, try to find a "trend". A trend is something where if you connect the dots, the price jumps right from that straight line.
Pull out your trendline tool and try to connect some dots. Don't go through any candle bodies. Going through wicks is okay. It's actually recommended.
Three touches are required to make a valid trendline. If you see only TWO touches? Is the price going TOWARDS the trendline if you were to extend it? There's a good chance it's going to head towards that TL and bounce! Good job. You found a good trade potential.
Identify Reversal or Continuation Patterns.
Look for known patterns. In the example above, there is a "head and shoulders" pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern.
Know that not all patterns will come true.
It's good to know the overall signal the market is giving.
If every trader sees it, it's likely not going to happen.
In the above example, a looming H/S pattern is scary given already bad economic conditions and recession/ inflation worries. In this case, the market may be trying to tell you something.
Understand that these patterns are not just nice-looking drawings on a chart. They work because they display some sort of buyer/ seller psychology.
I will post more examples of known patterns on my TradingView profile soon. Be sure to follow if you want to learn more.
If you benefitted from this, you are welcome to follow me, comment any questions, or share this with your friends. Good knowledge should be free. I'll post more insight soon. Thank you for reading and for your continued support. 👍
What is Support & Resistance (S&R)? What Types of S&R?Support & Resistance (S&R) is one of the basic topics that we need to know in trading, whether trading forex, shares or cryptocurrency.
Support & Resistance can show the upper and lower limits of price movement in a certain time.
*) Resistance is the upper limit to limit prices from rising further.
*) Support is the lower limit to limit prices from falling further.
The market moves because of differences in demand and supply.
When demand is greater the price will rise, if the supply is greater the price will move down.
Types of Support & Resistance:
1. Classic S&R
The way to determine S&R in Classic S&R is using previous swing high and swing low as referece (picture no.1)
The advantage of using this method is we can know previous S&R and we can use that as our reference to determine target profit, or stop loss area.
The weakness of using classic S&R is when the price break S&R we don’t know the next S/R
2. Dynamic S&R
The way to determine Dynamic S&R is using moving average. We determine high point & low point when price touch moving average diagonal line. (picture no.2)
4. Harmonic S&R
Harmonic S&R Is useful to determine S&R when price in all time high.
The weakness of Classic S&R is when the price break S&R we don’t know the next S&R, because of that we use Harmonic S&R to analyze the next target profit or loss area.
We use Fibonacci methode (picture no.3) to determine S&R
How we know this is a strong S/R or not?
That is a strong S/R when the price touch the S/R area and the price have a strong movement.
Function of Support & Resistance
Support & Resistance makes us know if this area can be a price target area, so we understand if the price doesn’t always go up or down, so we must to take profit and we have to put a stop loss.
In stock market activity, support & resistance prices indicate certain psychological levels, like:
*) Support is the level where people buy shares at the lowest price and make a profit when the price rises.
*) Resistance is the level where people have bought shares at the highest price and experienced losses because the price fell.
That activity becomes a repeating pattern.
People tend to buy at the support price because they know the price will rise and when the price is almost or already in the resistance area they will sell.
In the Forex market, we can have 2 positions in the same time,
So when the price is at the support we can make a purchase, and when the price is at resistance we can sell the previous position and in the resistance area we can also look for a selling position with a profit target in the previous support area and a stop loss area above the resistance area, because if price breaks through the resistance, price will continue to rise and create a new resistance.
Notes:
1. The source of this writing comes from several ideas that I have read, heard, or experienced personally. So if those of you reading this post & feel this is your idea, Please allow me to share again, because maybe I also learn from you.
2. The topic of Fibonacci and Moving Average will be discussed at another time
Thank You.
28 Sep 2023