Double Doji Strategy (How To Trade)The Doji pattern is one of the most incredible patterns among the Japanese candlesticks. For some reason it is not referred to very often. Maybe that explains why is is extensively used by professionals, not retailers. Only trade this pattern during high liquidity and volume times of session.
The Doji hints us that the market is in a state of balance of powers: the buyers strength has run out, but so is the sellers. So this is a state of temporary calmness, just before a major move happens. Note: a hourly or higher candle with a body of under 5 pips is considered a Doji.
The Doji may appear in variety of shapes, but the meaning of all of them is the same. The meaning is that the opening and closing price of the candle are the same. Remember that each candle represents a certain amount of time. For example (attached noted chart) is looking at a 1 hour (H 1) chart, each candle represents one hour of market activity. NOTE: this Double Doji Strategy works better on higher time frames: 1 hour, 4 hour and daily. (FYI).
RULES:
1) Identify 2 Dojis one after the other. It is preferable that the two Dojis will appear after a clear strong trend, for example an up trend or a downtrend.
2) You should mark the high and low borders of the two Dojis (place lines). As you can see on attached chart, I've marked the upper and lower borders of those two Dojis. Once top or bottom border is crossed, a move is underway so it is time to make a trade.
3) Place 2 pending orders. One if market breaks upper border of Dojis (1 pip above is enough) and one if market breaks the lower border (1 pip below).
4) For a buy (long) trade, place stop loss 1 pip below the Dojis lower border. For a sell (short) trade, place stop loss 1 pip above the Dojis upper border.
Now for the cheerful part of determining the profit target, or the amount of profit you expect to extract from this trade: 3 different methods:
1) Take Profit is equal to the stop loss ( attached chart is example of this one)
2) You open 2 identical trades. The first has a stop loss equal to the take profit. The second has a profit target which is double the stop loss. For example: Stop Loss is 50 pips and Take Profit is 100 pips.
3) Open one trade with a profit target which is half the stop loss. Lets say I determined the stop loss to be 50 pips, thus the first target would be 25 pips. This is where I'll close 80% of the trade. The second profit target, would be x2 of the stop loss. Or this example, take profit would be 100 pips.
Support and Resistance
Elliot Correction Wave A-B-C (How To Draw)How to Construct A-B-C wave ?
The corrective wave sequence A-B-C has following Fibonacci rules:
Wave –A this is 0.618 retracement of the prior wave it must be against the prior trend. (Example: Trend was up)
Wave –B this is 0.618 retracement of wave – A and may expand till 1.272 retracement of the wave –A
Way To Get This Levels:
Wave A- To get Fib ret level- go from start of prior trend up(low point to high point on chart)- Price will drop to 0.618 level.
Wave B- To get 0.618 level - Take highest point on chart to bottom of A- price should retrace to Wave B level- this is a sell area which may expand to 1.272 level noted on Fib ret tool over example chart.
Please practice with how to construct 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves and how to construct A-B-C- waves on different time charts- if you are a beginner charts over 1 hour will be easier to see and practice on.. Look for entries during high liquidity and volume times of session- or in between end of Tokyo close to London close.
Wisdom of The Crowd or Market Sentiment (Educational)Hi all,
I am just new user. And, I found many good ideas in Tradingview to learn. Recently, I read article about market sentiment and trade against the crowd. Therefore, I try to educate myself and make an observation. This observation is for my personal note because the data is actually too little.
My objective to share: If anyone read this, hopefully kind enough to point me to another post in tradingview related to market sentiment.
A. Selected Pairs
The pair is picked with assumption to avoid double risk due to economic correlation between countries. The selected pairs are: EURUSD, GBPJPY, NZDCAD, AUDCHF.
B. Observation Methods
a. Compare opening prices and closing prices for one week duration (OANDA with no particular reason).
b. Record how ideas choosing “Buy/Long” and “Sell/Short”.
c. This observation will ignore Take Profit, Stop Loss.
Week Pairs Candle Open Close
10 – 14 May 2021 EURUSD Bearish 1.21632 1.21457
10 – 14 May 2021 GBPJPY Bullish 151.847 154.139
10 – 14 May 2021 NZDCAD Bearish 0.88307 0.87787
10 – 14 May 2021 AUDCHF Bearish 0.70637 0.70096
d. Number of Shared Ideas and Bias from 8 – 9 May 2021. I ignore shared ideas between 10 – 14 May 2021 because traders already had advantages from price moving.
Week Pairs Long Short
8 – 9 May 2021 EURUSD 70 (61%) 45 (39%)
8 – 9 May 2021 GBPJPY 20 (61%) 13 (39%)
8 – 9 May 2021 NZDCAD 8 (67%) 4 (33%)
8 – 9 May 2021 AUDCHF 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
e. If at that week, I took the trade right at Market Opening for those pairs (no stop loss), the result was expected as follow:
Pairs Follow The Crowd (Pips) Against Market Sentiment (Pips) Note
EURUSD -19 19
GBPJPY 225 -225
NZDCAD -53,9 53,9
AUDCHF Neutral
Total 152,1 -152,1
f. If we want to follow the crowd, follow the smarter of the crowd who has the wisdom. My (temporary) conclusion, I can follow the good people of Tradingview because most of them are experienced trader.
Cheers,
Khres
Do You Day Trade? (Part 2/2)You need to know that during the 3rd/4 hr candle or from 10:00 pm to 2:00 am (PST/USA)- please convert to your time zone, that most of the time the L.O.D. (low of day) or H.O.D. (high of day) is made, within that 4 hr candle. If you get that right, you can profit with right risk management.
There is a high correlation that 11:00 pm to 2:00 am PST/USA that the High or Low being established for the daily session, in the majority of the cases.
Attached chart example of GBPJPY 1 hour chart of Thursday, making a H.O.D. during this 3rd/4 hour candle of session, then price action dropping 80 pips.
This is why I use Daily, 4 hour and 1 hour mostly when scalping and day trading.
Do not fight big banks, if you are scalping or day trading- just jump on their train and go with it for success.
Do You Day Trade? (Part 1/2)You need to know that during the 3rd/4 hr candle or from 10:00 pm to 2:00 am (PST/USA)- please convert to your time zone, that most of the time the L.O.D. (low of day) or H.O.D. (high of day) is made, within that 4 hr candle. If you get that right, you can profit with right risk management.
There is a high correlation that 11:00 pm to 2:00 am PST/USA that the High or Low being established for the daily session, in the majority of the cases.
Attached chart example of GBPJPY 1 hour chart of Friday, making a L.O.D. during this 3rd/4 hour candle of session, then price action going 50 pips up. This is why I use Daily, 4 hour and 1 hour mostly when scalping and day trading.
Do not fight big banks, if you are scalping or day trading- just jump on their train and go with it for success.
how to trade support and resistance ? visual guide for bulls there are resistance, for bears there are resistance
when price breakout support become resistance and resistance become support
you take entry at the retest
how to take entry at the retest
taking entry after lower low lower high at support
buying after multiple bottom at support
in this is example price made four bottom at previous resistance
Be cautious! Inverse H & S at the end of wave A is a pitfallClassic tools are simple yet powerful tools but if and only if you know when to use them, otherwise they can be very misleading.
A good example of such pitfalls is inverse head and shoulders at the end of wave A. Traders who rely on this pattern regardless of its position in terms of Elliott waves may expect a new major high and become ready to make a nice profit but they get shocked by the market very soon in the case that they used inverse H&S at the end of wave A.
A clear example of this pitfall happened at the end of wave A on TSLA . Details are shown on the chart.
In fact, Head and Shoulders and inverse Head and Shoulders are nothing but some patterns forming in some types of Elliott wave cycles. You have to know when to use them. Inverse head and shoulders is a POWERFUL tool when you use it at the end of wave C .
I refer who may argue that this is an after the fact publication to my idea published on Apr 13th when most traders were bullish on TSLA. Link is also provided below.
Hope this to be useful and can help you in your trades.
Best wishes.
Parabolic Explosion / The Bitcoin PhenomenaGood Morning traders! Today we bring you a curious post, and maybe a bit controversial, since we are going to propose a future behavior in bitcoin (in relation to past events) with an extremely interesting price target.
To make this post, we will focus on the last large corrections, that is, backward movements that lasted for months or perhaps years. They can be clearly seen in the chart of the post, because the chart is in a logarithmic scale (if you do not know what the logarithmic scale means, leave a comment and we will gladly make an educational post in relation to the different scales in the graph).
We can see great similarities in the corrective movements, and so far the impulsive movements have been respected.
Speaking of corrective movements, we see that both have a depth of approximately 85%, and a duration of between 1100 and 1300 days.
🔸We can see more clearly the corrections in the two charts below:
🔸The target set in both situations is the theoretical target of this type of movements. Of course, the movement after the first correction ended up being abruptly greater than the theoretical. The rise of the previous impulse was +1600%:
Now what we ask ourselves is if the current impulsive movement replicates the previous rise. If so, it would imply a +1600% rise from the breakout, resulting in an approximate target of $340,000.
Interesting, right?
This kind of behavior is common on many cryptocurrencies. We have more examples and cases, so, feel free to comment the cryptocurrency you are inteterested in and we will try to apply this kind of analysis to it!
Market Structure - The Chart analysis (simplified!!!)Using Market Structure to identify entries in the FX market has been a life changing technique for me. Through this video, i described my process of entering trades using MS without a single indicator in sight!!!
You'll see the following :
1. How to draw support and resistance.
2. How to identify the trends in a market ? What is a Break of Structure ?
3. Avoiding fake outs using the Law of 2's (by waiting for two consecutive HH's and HL's | LH's and LL's).
4. What is a Major Level ? Is it really useful to my analysis?
5. How to determine Take Profit using MS.....etc
ETH weekly chart using silver ratio retracements & 0.4142Most of this is explaining why I like the silver ratio: 1+sqrt(2), or 1.4142. It may be a sort of analysis of ETH, but mostly I want to explain why I found the 0.4142 fib chart level so compelling as soon as I started using it (I tried several values and that one INSTANTLY had results, where all the others failed).
I was working on this when I saw the front page idea* with my fib chart retrace values! (note: i had to abandon my other account since this had my number attached so I could buy being able to look at two charts at once... x.x. so i am starting fresh, but I have been using sqrt(2) as a fib level since I was trying to figure out my own tweaks on the formulas. In fact, 1.4142 and 0.4142 are WEIRDLY good as fib levels. They are more accurate than 38.6. Because it's sqrt(2), it also fits nicely into the overall template of a fib chart that is mostly focused around ensuring the levels are being respected in general, so that once applied further, the same levels can be predicted in the same manner. I'm not being annoyed about that I would love to see 1.4142 used more often in fib charts; it's just a fantastic level. It's also related to a more complicated topic, enumerative combinatronics, which is quantifying possible patterns... which is perfect for pattern-heavy price action!
I initially was not very confident in TA. There are so many different techniques and it is very hard to figure out which are hopeful guesswork and which have an objective relation to the price. Learning incorrectly early on also harmed me, but it was an important lesson to learn. I am not a maths major so my explanations here are pretty minor.
www.youtube.com
Here's a numberphile video about the silver ratio.
sqrt(2) is a Pell number. More formally, {delta} = {delta}S = 1 + sqrt(2). I wish TV wouldn't get mad at me for using math symbols and think I'm not writing in English but okay tradingview.
If you were to replace the fib numbers and make a Pell chart instead, it would look like this:
nevermind I made it and it was terrible so I scrapped that idea. I will need to mess with the pell series more because that many irrational numbers (19601+13860sqrt(2) = 39201.99997... ok)
puu.sh Silver rectangle (as opposed to the so-called ~perfect~ Fibonacci ratio rectangles, I find this one to be more respectable!!)
I'm still pretty new and only have a few months with very scattered education regarding these topics so most of it ended up being pragmatically learned and backtested. It seems to work so well that I second guess myself so often I end up making bad trades while it just follows my prediction almost precisely. I just use the retracement because the actual uses are sorta irrelevant to me as long as the ratios and levels I want are on the chart in the way I want them to consistently be used for my own purposes.
What's that? I can toss this set of retracement levels and it just manages to fit better than the defaults with zero fitting required! usually
Indeed, 0.2 and 0.4142 were probably my favorite discoveries in January when I was experimenting with different mathematics. A runner up is 0.8, only because it usually nests the dip after the 1 (100% value) is reached. As a trading style, the point is to buy in either for a short term trade between 0 and 0.2 and then sell at the silver level (0.4142), or, anything below the silver level is a buy zone, and 0.618 would be the sell point if there is a "projected" chart, which I like doing. It is, and always will be, weirdly accurate in predicting reversals, but never when, only the price. When is the hard part to me.
puu.sh
example, this is my bitcoin chart from my prediction in march and then now. I was expecting this sort of move but getting it to the exact day and recognizing that last flash crash before it happened (because it was repeating a previous impulse, so is probably some fundamentals I don't know about, whether it's monthly miner sales or just... taxes or whatever).
So using presumptions of the asset's usual impulse distances (since, well, the same people are buying and selling, and unless the price changes significantly, the movement in prices tends to always be correlated to previous movements, with the exception of mean reversion inevitability if it's on a wrong side of an MA or vwap or something. Basically, trading probability and the averages. So far it was worked well as long as there is no flash power outage in China that messes everything up. But even then it seems to be priced into the chart levels.
My next study is to see if I can integrate Elliot wave theory and these levels into a combined impulse prediction tool that I can use for myself objectively so I can stay in a trade with more confidence. Mostly, I gotta stay off the 15m chart.. lol.
Likely fallacy pitfall explanations for the retracement fit:
1. seeing patterns where there are lots of possibilities for patterns to be formed; of course, everyone ends up ignoring the values that are not met or are blown past, since they fail to create any support or resistance. I like to use these levels that are previously unused to predict where a channel may form, because an unused channel is more appealing to price action than a used one, given the volatility a used one entails with so many orders and predictions being made for the same ones.
.4142 and .2 and .8 are all slightly off of the fib levels. They are just off enough that instead of being overlapped, they skirt the level. This looks and is a lot cleaner on the chart, but may well just be seeing what one wants to see in how important the levels are. This is why I chose to focus on the 0.4142 level so heavily. It falls just short of the halfway mark (a very important value in probability given it is the median of the range I am trying to predict), which more or less confirms a halfway point. If the trend is very bullish, you can use the 0.4142 level as the guideline to try and predict where the 1 value will end up in the future.
I spent some time adding some more predictions and using those levels as examples of their utility in future price projection, as well as how well it can backtest.
Here is a step-by-step in how I do this for a quick guesstimate of bullish impulse prices that I find a bit more adaptable than simply the golden ratio fetish, and unsurprisingly, other such irrational numbers work well when used for different purposes.
BTC
s3.tradingview.com 1
s3.tradingview.com 2
s3.tradingview.com 3
AAPL:
s3.tradingview.com ~base
~adjusted
~result
The final thing I have to say and want to express is that it's fantastic to learn how all these things work in the book, but the book doesn't matter if you don't have your own understanding and conceptual view of the technique you or I am using. Most of all, it should make sense to you, even if it doesn't make sense to anyone else. I've come to appreciate that with charting and the great variety of ideas and methods used by everyone, closer or further from the standard. It's worth noting the standards didn't have a high success rate anyway when tested in a vacuum; but this methodology is less for efficient autotrading, and more for having a plan and reasons for entering or exiting trades at certain points.
The most important element of charting, that I've come to identify, is that it cements the plan into a reference work that when changed becomes useless, so the plan must be stuck to unless price itself defies expectations beyond parameters.
Thank you! I'm happy to be able to shove this all in an article finally and sort of start to work out my ideas, as I have very little concrete documentation on it yet, as frankly it's still in the growing pains stages as I am but a bab in TA.
Sofie
*https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AMC/zjtSxXED-Using-the-Trend-Based-Fib-Extension-Tool/
My examples focus on an uptrend.
Forex Session Tendencies Tokyo Session:
Liquidity begins coming in from Wellington, New Zealand. The Tokyo session has a higher tendency for ranges to hold- support and resistance to be respected.
London Session:
Liquidity being furnished throughout Europe. The London session has a proclivity for fat, active moves.
New York Session:
Can exhibit behaviors from both London or Tokyo sessions. The Overlap is often considered "The most liquid period" of the day.
Other useful information:
The New York Forex session is one of the most liquid Forex trading sessions. When the US session overlaps with the London Forex market session it is considered to be the most liquid period of the day.The beginning of the New York session is normally more volatile than later in the day. There are different methods traders can use to trade differing levels of volatility.
WHAT TIME DOES THE NEW YORK FOREX SESSION OPEN?
The New York Forex session opens at 8:00 AM ET and closes at 5:00 PM ET. The ‘overlap’ occurs when the US Forex session overlaps with the London Forex market session. The London Forex market session opens at 3:00 AM ET and closes at 12:00 PM ET, so the overlap occurs between 8:00 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET.
Pivot Points (95 % Win Rate)What is Pivot point trading?
Pivot point trading is a technique widely used among traders, that allows to determine important support/resistance levels for the day which derived from the previous day's trading range.
Pivot points — the key levels or certain price values for a current day — are points around which traders base their entries and exits. There are 5 major and several additional pivot levels, we are going to learn about them later.
In simple words, it is similar to knowing where the price is going to stop and reverse and how far it will go next time: The knowledge of such support/resistance levels is priceless as it allows to get in / out of the trade, set stop and profit orders with maximum advantage to traders.
In fact, if you have troubles seeing where the market is going, Pivot points can give you a clue! It is like having a map on your charts!
How to use Pivot points in trading?
The strategy. Going to show you the way to trade using Pivot points.Calculate Pivot points on daily basis using daily charts and then use those Pivot levels on 15 minute charts — our main charts — where we will look for entries, stops and exits. Use 15 minute time frame because it allows catching best entry and exit opportunities. With hourly charts, for example, when the signal is there it is quite often already too late to react / enter.
Pivot Trick — when main Pivot Point (Red Line) is passed / crossed, price will in 95% of cases hit first Support level 1 (White Line) or Resistance level 1 (White Line), what does it mean? Sure fire profits. NOTE: On example bullish trade chart price went from PP to R 1 under TWO hours- for 50 pip profit!!!
If you choose to take your profits at R 1 or S 1 level you will be winning it day after day!
On the other hand, you may often see that during some other days you were exiting too early as the price moved further in your direction after you exited. It's up to you: opting for predictable profits or going for bigger dreams. . Yes, you can either exit trade at either R 1 or S 2, or let trade run with tight stop. * YES, always use risk management and back test this 95% win rate pivot point strategy on 15 mn charts with GBP, EUR or high ADR pairs (90+).
Market Structure - Mastering the basics P1Hi Guys!!!
Let's talk about Market Structure in FX Trading. Taking in these concepts could be daunting for beginners but i was extremely lucky to learn from the best. Through these videos, i hope to simplify complex trading concepts.
In this video, you'd quickly learn how to identify trends and a special trick called the "Law of 2's ", useful for avoiding fakeouts in the market .
#Ladytrader
Using the Trend-Based Fib Extension ToolThe Fibonacci ratios are widely used among traders to help identify potential areas of reversal in the movement of price action.
The Trend-based Fibonacci Extension tool utilizes three points on a previously identified trend in order to draw the Fib ratios on the chart.
In the chart above, price was rejected twice at the ~$35.50 level, forming a double top which is a fairly strong reversal pattern. To help identify potential areas of support and resistance we have drawn a Trend-Based Fib Extension.
Using the double top patterns High, Low, and High as the three points for the Trend-Based Fib Extension, the Fibonacci ratios are drawn on the chart.
In this example, you can see that price action respected these levels very well until finding strong support at a potential bottom that corresponds with the 200% extension level.
But, notice the region in the yellow box on this chart. There seems to be no identified areas where the Fibonacci ratios show support or resistance.
While retrospectively we can tell that the area of support found at ~ $12 (141.4%) in mid-November 2017 did not produce a new bull market. At the time there was a potential reversal at that region resulting in higher highs and therefore we could have pulled a NEW Trend-Based Fib Extension as shown below.
As the new Trend-Based Fib Extension is identifying areas of a new uptrend, we see that these ares are shown in a way that they were not in the previously drawn Trend-Based Fib Extension.
However, price was rejected at the 61.8% level and continued downward until the 0% extension level was broken, thus invalidating this Trend-Based Fib Extension.
While the upward price trend did not continue, there was a local high that was made and thus could be utilized to create another Trend-Based Fib Extension to further identify areas of reversal for the continuing downtrend as shown below.
Looking at this newly created Trend-Based Fib Extension, we see that the areas moving down to the 78.6% extension level are very well respected, at which time the price found support, creating a triple bottom reversal pattern.
It is interesting to note that the 78.6% extension on this Trend-Based Fib Extension pull is at $1.82, and the 200% extension level from our first Trend-Based Fib Extension pull was at $1.95, a mere $0.13 difference in price.
This area where the two levels of a Trend-Based Fib Extension or Retracement group together is know as a Fib cluster and indicates areas of strong support or resistance.
With price forming a triple bottom and reversing from this level, is it possible that this is the bottom of the downtrend?
Could a new Trend-Based Fib Extension now be pulled from a new Low/High/Low to identify potential areas of support and resistance?
Give it a try and see what you find!
XAUUSD - How I caught 580 pips on Gold almost zero Drawdown💰💰Hello Traders😃
I have decided to make this educational post on a trade I took on the 5th of may which took profit after NFP✅
I believe there is a struggling trader who may be having difficulties putting it all together and creating a simple trading plan.
The first thing to remember is that trading is probabilities so we try to get as many reasons as possible in our favor before placing any single trade
If you see most of my ideas I highlight if a trade is medium probability or high probability and it’s mostly backed by these factors,
The more factors in my favor, the higher the probability ⚜️
In this trade I simply used these 5 reasons to get on this trade and all criteria was met perfectly.✊🏽
You don’t need a magic indicator or a lot of lines on your chart to be profitable
Remember simplicity is the key 🔑
Just these 5 factors helped me to secure 580 pips on a single trade with a healthy risk to reward too.😊
I caught a similar trade on the 15th of April which I’ve linked below and you can see the factors above
Keep things simple and repeatable♻️
God bless you😊
I wish you all a profitable trading career
Slick⚜️
How to Catch a Trend? Deep Explanation on a Real SituationGood Morning traders! Interesting idea today regarding the NZD/JPY pair.
This post is aimed to all the trend followers, since it implies a breakout of an interesting ceiling. This pair has been consolidating in the current retracement for more than two months, and we can already begin to see intentions of a breakout in the short term.
Why do we say this?
🔸Since March 25, the minor trend is clearly bullish. This determines that there is an interesting demand, and it is possible that we will see a brekaout soon. The target of the potential movement is in the next Resistance zone, at 84,000. We determined this based on the analysis of the Weekly chart:
🔸Well, the above is just an analysis. The question is, how are we going to trade this movement?
🔸In the 4H chart we will plan the setup. It involves a corrective move in a throwback towards the broken zone, and then the corresponding momentum. It has a GREAT potential if it happens, since it can be a trade with a return greater than 4 or 5 times the risk assumed.
Why are we trading this way?
Because we are momentum traders and we look for trades that goes in the direction on the main trend.
And how to catch a trend?
This is a commonly asked question. As a breakout traders, we always look for clear impulses followed by corrective moves. After that, we will look for the new impulse in the direction of the main trend, using that corrective move to place our entry and stop loss level. Here are 5 examples of the last bullish trend:
The first thing we will do is to position on the daily chart to show you all the corrections we saw on the chart. After that, we will decrease to the corresponding timeframe to be able to see the structure comfortably and detail how we would have traded it. We will use a very simple risk scheme, fixed 2: 1 R / R ratio in order to simplify the explanation. The entry point is at the breakout of the structure, and the stop loss below it.
Raff Regression Channel (RRC) The Raff Regression Channel (RRC)
The Raff Regression Channel , developed by Gilbert Raff, is based on a linear regression, which is the least-squares line-of-best-fit for a price series, with evenly spaced trend lines above and below . The width of the channel is set by determining the high or low that is the furthest from the linear regression.
Because the channel distance is based off the largest pullback or highest peak within a trend, for effectively drawing and using a Raff Regression Channel it is recommend/required that a Raff Regression Channel is applied to “mature” trends.
Once The Raff Regression Channel is drawn, covering an existing trend, EXTENSION LINES are drawn to identify support, resistance, reversal points, mean reversion
Effectively drawing and using a Raff Regression Channel
The trend is up as long as prices rise within this channel. An uptrend may be reversing (not always, but likely) when price breaks below the channel extension . The trend is down as long as prices decline within the channel. Similarly, a downtrend may be reversing (not always, but likely) when price breaks above the channel extension . Moves outside the channel extensions can be indication of a reversal or can denote overbought or oversold conditions
breakout example
reversal example
█ LINK to AUTOMATED INDICATOR VERSION of RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL
█ OTHER CHANNEL CONSEPTS
Linear Regression Channels,
Fibonacci Channels,
Andrews’ Pitchfork,
4 Questions To Verify Before Taking A Trade Ask Yourself 4 Questions before taking any new trades? on attached 1 hour chart
1) Pair Traded? GBP/AUD
2) Price Traded? 1.78900
3) Session Traded? LON/NY
4) Time Traded? 6 AM to 7 AM PST
*Before Taking any new trades!
Also, note on attached hourly Gbp/Aud chart:
1) Bollinger Band- Price is at lower edge of band (or might be oversold?)
2) Volume- Simple volume indicator shows a spike in bullish volume at beginning of New York session
3) Candlestick- Hourly candle from 6 am to 7 am (after NY Stock exchange opened) showed almost 100% buyers being in control of this pair now.
Hourly Bearish & Bullish Order BlocksYou can use order blocks with scalping or day trading, just use higher time frames above your entry time frames. Both 4 hr and 1 hr time frames, I have found work great if you use 15 minute charts for entry of day trades.
You should be able to put any weeks worth of hourly time frame chart on and place both the major bearish and bullish order blocks and see if the week had any minor order blocks too.
Order Blocks (How To Use Them In Trading)Definition Of Order Blocks:
* An order block is a defined area where buyers or sellers of smart money entered market & moved price away from its price level to a new area of interest.
Why Order Blocks:
* The market is engineered by smart money by means of creating levels within the market place for them to use at a later date and time.
How To Identify Order Blocks:
* An order block can be identified by specific candlestick or bar that when viewed in institutional context, can highlight smart money buying and selling.
Order Blocks:
* Apart from commonly used supply and demand zones, order block are very specific levels that can be refined to lower time frame to exact price levels.
Bullish Order Block:
* A bullish order block is the last bearish candle prior to the move up. (see chart)
Bearish Order Block:
* A bearish order block is the last bullish candle prior to the move down. (see chart)
Trading With Order Blocks (TIPS):
1) Higher time frame market structure is in focus( I would use 1 hr or higher, attached chart is weekly order blocks).
2) Select an order block with largest body and shortest wicks.
3) When price is retesting an order block expect a price to bounce off at higher of bullish order block or lower of bearish order block, but middle of the order block is the last point of retracement when looking for entries, if price breaks the order block then find another order block.
4) Just like other natural support and resistance, before trading to the actual order block and reverse, most of the time price will fake the reversal then continue to an order block.
5) Stop loss is placed just above bearish order blocks and below bullish order blocks.
6) When major high/low is formed, look for fair value order block in middle of range to enter a trade, price should not retest highest/lowest order block.
7) Use other indicators like Fibonacci, moving averages, support and resistance, pivot points etc... to confirm your trading decision.
8) Always look left on charts to see if current price range is hitting or inside of a previous order block (these levels are important).
ETHBTC - A simple approachShowing support is greatly appreciated and keeps up the motivation in continuous ideas and education for the community.
Observe: 0.041895, 0.045950
Two prices that indicate structure, we can now quickly identify that both prices have been important in a direction, volume and liquidity change, thus giving us key identifiers we can label for reference when we analyze a chart.
You can use the "Horizontal Line" tool to analysis almost any security across multiple time frames, it's use is widely forgotten and you can't simplify a chart any less...
Horizontal Line Tool:
- Mark out important prices
- Help show a position, entry, stop
- Plot important alerts
- Simplify Analysis
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IDF Play - Fading a daily inside barSTATEMENT
This publication aim to explain as detailed as possible the IDF play strategy.
To do so, we will analyse USDCAD chart and the inside bar that was printed on 22-04-2021.
RATIONALE
Why trading the failure of an inside bar? It's commonly known that retail traders will identify an inside bar as a reversal candle. Institutions and big players know how retail traders play these kind of candles and will most likely fade them.
Also, before directly trading this technique, please backtest it through different time period (what could have workd in 2020 might not work anymore in 2021 as it's well known that market behaviour can change) and different currencies (an high strike rate with EURUSD doesn't mean it will work with GPBUSD for example). I would consider it as an edge it win rate is above 60% adn the ratio is in average above 1% ROI.
INSIDE BAR
What's an inside bar? It is a candle in which the high to low range is smaller than the prior candle; i.e., the high is lower than the previous bar's high, and the low is higher than the previous bar's low .
THE PLAY
First of all, we identify an inside bar on the daily time frame:
In this particular trade, our inside bar can also be identified as a Doji candle (another reversal candle), reinforcing the retail trader's sentiment that we are about to witness a trend reversal (meaning that most of them will be placing an order to go long with a stop loss below the wick of the candle).
Additionally, if we check the prior day we notice that price printed an Outside bar (or Engulfing candle), confirming our bias that we are most likely to find opportunities to go short.
Next step is to go down to the hourly time frame and look for a significant leven from which we can short.
So far in below screenshot we have identify a significant support level where price was rejected 6 times. As we would like to find an opportunity to go short, we need to wait for the price to break through this level.
Now, as we have short bias, we need to wait for the price to break through that support level, so we can consider placing an order (sell limit).
With 6 touches on the support level, market is telling us that we have a strong level, having saying that, we won't need any further confluence to look for entry after the breakout.
After breakout is confirmed (1) and there is no an immediate pullback (few candles between breakout and pullback to significant level) we can place our order (in this case, sell limit).
We do not place our stop loss above the latest lower high; we play it safe and place it at 1.25104 (the prior lower high).
Take profit is placed at a weekly level we have identified we do believe can represent a valid target.
THE RESULT