Wyckoff simplified + entries & exitsI'm going to explain Wyckoff to you in a simplified manner and show you how you can use it for entries & exits.
What is Wyckoff?
Large market orders by huge entities come in gradually. If the market only consisted of buying and selling, it would be too easy to make money as it would be too predictable. So instead, orders are injected into the market via an accumulation process (i.e. Wyckoff schematic)
Basically, the big players of the market try to take out the retail traders’ stoplosses by injecting orders into the market (to move price toward the stoplosses and hit them). They inject these orders gradually (to avoid being predictable and to trick the retail traders).
Basic Wyckoff schematic
This is a bearish Wyckoff schematic:
Let’s break this down.
BC - This stands for Buying Climax. The Buying Climax marks the end of buying and is confirmed by an Automatic Rally.
AR - This stands for Automatic Rally. This is when price goes in the opposite direction of the climax. In this case, the AR was to the downside. This confirms that it is the end of buying because it shoots straight down (indicating strong selling pressure). This confirms the Buying Climax by going into the Discount level (bottom 25%) and by being bigger than all the other downward pullbacks which happened before.
Test - Price goes close to the Climax point and re-tests it. Then, traders take sells because they think that because of the AR, price would go down. The traders think that price went up for the last time and will finally go down. Because of their sell orders, price falls a little.
Purge - The big players try to take out the traders’ sell orders by moving price up to the Climax point. They push price a little higher than the Climax point to take out all the stoplosses.
RTO - This stands for Return to Origin. Because of the purge, traders think that price broke structure to the upside. So, they buy which makes price form the RTO. They’re trying to make price revisit the Climax point. Then, price moves lower and they get stopped out again.
SOW - This stands for Sign of Weakness. When structure breaks to the downside after the RTO, this shows that selling pressure is coming in.
LPS - Last Point of Support. This is the consolidation which must happen before price breaks out of the consolidation to convince you that price is bearish and no longer bullish.
Here is how a bullish Wyckoff structure looks like:
Let me explain this once more so that you understand it.
The main trend was a down trend on the left side of the chart. Then, price had a strong bull move up (the AR) which means that there were buy trades (i.e. Automatic Rally). That confirms that there was a Selling Climax (i.e. SC) and that it’s the end of selling (because if it wasn't the end of selling, the AR wouldn't go so high)
After that, price came down to re-test the Selling Climax zone (which is called the Test). Then, traders took a buy because they thought that because of the AR, price would be going up.
Then the big players pushed price down a little lower than the Selling Climax to hit the buy orders' stoplosses which forms the Purge.
After that, because the Purge happened, it made traders think that price broke structure to the downside which led them to sell. Then, price went down because of those sell orders (forming the RTO) and rejected from the Selling Climax (price went up).
Price rejected from that level because there were buy orders from the big players which made price go up. Since price went up, those sell trades got taken out. Because price went up, it formed an SOS (i.e. Sign of Strength). It means that the selling pressure had weakened, and the buying pressure had strengthened.
Finally, price formed a consolidation (i.e. LPS) which tricked traders again into thinking that price will go down. The traders sold and the big players pushed prices up to hit their stoplosses one last time.
This is a basic Wyckoff pattern in a nutshell.
You’ll be more likely to predict the Wyckoff pattern in its later stages when some parts of it have formed. The earlier it is, the riskier it’ll be.
Advanced Wyckoff schematic
Let’s talk about the 2nd variation of the Wyckoff pattern. This is the same as the basic Wyckoff schematic except that the Test will go beyond the BC/SC. It will look like a purge, but it won’t be. It will be a fake purge. Then, after the Test, the actual Purge will happen.
This is to trick most of the Smart Money Concept traders into thinking that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go lower (in case of a bearish schematic). The traders will then sell. The big players will then push price up to break the Test and form the actual Purge. All the traders will get wiped out because price has hit their stoplosses.
In case of a bullish schematic, the traders will think that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go higher. They’ll buy. The big players will then push price down to form the actual Purge and take out the buy orders.
Here is how it looks like:
Structures
Before I explain how you can use this to trade, let’s first understand market structures. There are 2 types of market structures which I’ll be talking about: Support & Resistance and Supply & Demand.
There’s also 1 more thing to understand: ranges. A range is the area between the latest swing high and swing low.
👉 Supply & Demand Structure
This is when price forms a new range by forming a new high or a new low. Then, it comes back into the old range.
When price comes back into the range, it finds more buy orders to push it up again.
When price comes back into the range, it finds more sell orders to push it down again.
👉 Support & Resistance Structure
This is the same thing as the Supply and Demand structure except that price will not come back into the range but instead bounce off of the highs/lows.
Let’s see how we can use structures with Wyckoff to take entries and exits. We’re first going to use the Supply & Demand structure. Then, we’ll see how we can use the Support & Resistance structure.
Supply & Demand Entry
We’re going to take entries using the Supply & Demand structure. This strategy uses 2 timeframes to take entries (Macro & Micro). We’re going to look at a buy example. For a sell, simply use the opposite logic.
The main idea is to trade with the trend. So, first go to a higher timeframe and find a Supply & Demand structure. Then, look for when price forms a new low/high. We can see that, in this case, price formed the first lower low.
Now, we know that because this is a Supply & Demand structure, price will go back up into the range. So, to take advantage of this up move, we can take a buy.
We first have to know where to buy. So, go down to a lower timeframe. Then, look for a bullish Wyckoff schematic. Look for the Selling Climax (i.e. SC). This means that it is the end of the downtrend. Then, wait for price to form the AR, Test, Purge and RTO. You can buy when the RTO or LPS happens.
You can exit when you see a bearish schematic. This bearish schematic has to reach the Premium level. First, find the Premium level by going back to the higher timeframe and taking the upper 25% of the down leg. Then wait for price to form a bearish schematic and reach that premium level.
The Premium level will be reached when price forms a Purge (during a bearish schematic). We can see (in the picture below) that during the bearish schematic, price did Purge and break into the Premium level. Exit your buy here.
There’s also another way you can take a trade (look at the picture below). You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic.
It is more preferable to sell than to buy, in this case, because the larger trend on the higher timeframe is a bearish Supply & Demand structure. So, price is going down on the larger trend. When you trade with the trend, the probability of your trade giving profits is higher.
This was in case of a sell. If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic.
Support & Resistance Entry
To trade a Support & Resistance structure, we do the exact same things we did for the Supply and Demand structure. The only difference is that instead of looking for a Purge near the upper 25%/bottom 25%, look for it where price will react (near the red line).
After you’ve found it, you can enter your trade when the RTO, SOW or LPS comes.
This is in case of a buy. For a sell, use the opposite logic.
Like I’ve said before, you can also take a sell to trade with the trend on the higher timeframe. You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic.
If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic.
I hope you found this useful!
Support and Resistance
SPY: Don’t “Guess” the Top.We can learn a very interesting lesson by looking at the SPY chart. Anyone who tries to guess the next top or bottom is a gambler, not a trader, and as someone who has gambled a lot in the past, this rally brings back some memories.
It's very easy for someone to see such an explosive movement and think: "It's already gone up a lot, it's going to have to come down soon". It's very easy to look for clues in other indicators, for example, and get excited when you see the RSI exploding close to 70. Looking for clues that reinforce a pre-existing belief is common among individuals corrupted by the "confirmation bias", which is something else, and would be content for a future article.
Still talking about the RSI, it's important to mention that the RSI was already at 70 when the price was at $450. Since then it has risen by more than $20 (approximately 5%), and there is no sign of a top yet. Far from being a criticism of such an efficient indicator, this is just evidence that the use of indicators should be aligned with what we see on the chart.
Top or bottom signals are confirmed when we see a clear breakout from a notorious reversal pattern. As we can see from the SPY chart below, just one or two bearish patterns, even when appears close to clear resistance, is not enough. There needs to be confirmation of a good breakout.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why so many are rushing to sell a possible top, even without confirmation. By waiting for confirmation, you sacrifice part of your profits, and amateurs hate that. To feel like a pro, you have to feel the satisfaction of buying the bottom and selling the top, all the time. Which is ironic, because that's not the focus of a professional. A real trader seeks long-term consistency.
Speaking for myself, as far as I can see it's a strong rally in the SPY, and the next resistance is the all-time high at $479.98. So far, there is no clear reversal pattern for me, although I personally would like to see a correction to a support point.
What if the SPY made a bearish candlestick pattern today? Just as we see on November 9, 15 and 29, and on December 6, a top signal is plausible, but we need to wait for confirmation via a breakout. Otherwise, it would just be another bear trap.
Another thing I like to do is wait for a clear bearish reversal structure to appear on shorter time frames, such as the hourly chart. Uptrends are characterized by rising tops and bottoms, and the reverse applies to downtrends. When a stock is in a clear uptrend, but the hourly chart suddenly makes a lower top and bottom, it's a warning sign. If such a reversal occurs near a resistance area, all the better, as was the case with NVDA at the end of last month.
One of the most overlooked principles of Dow Theory is the number 6: "Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs". When Charles Dow, founder of the Dow Jones index and the Wall Street Journal, began working on the principles more than a century ago, he never imagined that in the 21st century there would still be traders who anticipate and don't wait for confirmation (again, I was among these gamblers in the past).
Therefore, trading reversals is interesting and can be very profitable, but you need to base your decisions on technical reasons. I shared how I like to trade reversals, but there are more strategies that you can use. Feel free to share yours. That's the difference between a gambler and a trader. Moreover, remember to follow me for more content like this, and support this idea if you liked it!
All the best,
Nathan.
Best Moving Average Strategies For Beginners
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss two efficient ways to apply the moving average(s) indicator in your trading.
Please, note that the settings for a moving average depend on many factors and can not be universal. Time frame, your style of trading and many other factors should be taken into consideration when you define the settings.
1️⃣The first very efficient way to apply moving average is to consider that to be a strong support/resistance. Such a method is appropriate for trend-following traders.
A very important condition to note applying MA as the structure is that the market should be trending: it should trade in a bullish or bearish trend, not in sideways.
📍In a bullish trend, a moving average will provide you a relatively safe point for buying the market after a pullback. Quite often, after a test of MA, the price tends to bounce all the way up to a current high and even go higher to the next highs.
Here is how a simple moving average is applied as a support in a bullish trend on Gold. The price reacted multiple times to that and strong bullish movements initiated from that.
📍In a bearish trend, a moving average will serve as a strong resistance and quite will often indicate a completion point of a retracement leg after a strong bearish impulse.
2️⃣The second way to apply moving average is to apply a combination of 2 MAs with different settings (one with a bigger and one with a smaller length). Such a method is usually applied by counter-trend traders.
And again, a very important condition to note, is that if you want to apply this method efficiently, remember that the market must be trending, it should be bullish or bearish.
Your task will be to track an intersection of two MAs.
📍In a bullish trend, a crossing of two moving averages with a high probability will indicate a trend violation and initiation of a new bearish trend.
Such a signal usually serves as a trigger to open a short position.
📍In a bearish trend, a crossing of two moving averages will signify a violation of a bearish trend and the start of a new bullish trend.
The intersection by itself will be a signal to open a long position.
Take a look how 2 moving averages with different input length perfectly predicted a violation of a bullish trend on Gold and initiation of a bullish wave after a correction.
Your task as a trader is to find the most accurate inputs for MAs. With backtesting and experience, you will find the settings applicable to your trading style.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Imagine support and resistance zones as floors on which...Imagine support and resistance zones as floors on which lemmings walk.
When a lemming enters a different floor, it usually walks around that floor for a while before deciding to go up or down to another floor. What would happen in your trading if you started to perceive the price as such lemmings walking between the floors of a building?
Market Manipulations. Bullish Trap (smart money concepts)
In the today's article, we will discuss how smart money manipulate the market with a bullish trap.
In simple words, a bullish trap is a FALSE bullish signal created by big players.
With a bullish trap, the smart money aims to:
1️⃣ Increase demand on an asset, encouraging the market participant to buy it.
2️⃣ Make sellers close their positions in a loss.
When a short position is closed, it is automatically BOUGHT by the market.
Take a look at a key horizontal resistance on AUDCHF.
Many times in the past, the market dropped from that.
For sellers, it is a perfect area to short from.
Bullish violation of the underlined zone make sellers close their position in a loss and attracts buyers.
Then the market suddenly starts falling heavily, revealing the presence of smart money.
Both the sellers and the buyers lose their money because of the manipulation.
There are 2 main reasons why the smart money manipulates the markets in a such a way:
1️⃣ - A big player is seeking to close a huge long position
When a long position is closed, it is automatically SOLD to the market.
In order to sell a huge position, smart money needs a counterpart who will buy their position.
Triggering stop losses of sellers and creating a false demand, smart money sell their position partially to the crowd.
2️⃣ - A big player wants to open a huge short position
But why the smart money can't just close their long position or open short without a manipulation?
A big sell order placed by the institutional trader, closing their long position, can have an impact on the price of the asset. If the sell order is large enough, it can push the price downward as sellers outnumber buyers. Smart money are trying to balance the supply and demand on the market, hiding their presence.
It is quite complicated for the newbies and even for experienced traders to recognize a bullish trap.
One of the efficient ways is to apply multiple time frame analysis and price action.
Remember, that most of the time bullish traps occur on key horizontal or vertical resistances.
After you see a breakout, analyze lower time frames.
Quite often, after a breakout, the market starts ranging.
After a breakout of a key daily resistance, gold started to consolidate within a narrow range on an hourly time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range will indicate a strength of the sellers and a highly probable bullish trap.
Remember, that you can not spot all the traps, and occasionally you will be fooled by smart money. However, with experience, you will learn to recognize common bullish traps.
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The Best Strategy to Apply Trailing Stop Revealed
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my strategy to apply a trailing stop.
Please, note that I am applying a trailing stop only in trend-following trades and only when a trade is opened on a key level. I trade price action patterns, so the following technique will be appropriate primarily for price action traders. Moreover, my entries are strictly on a retest.
1️⃣
Spotting a price action pattern, I am always waiting for its neckline breakout. (if we talk about different channels, then by a neckline we mean its trend line)
Once I see a candle close below/above the neckline, I set my sell/buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will strictly lie below the lows of the pattern if we buy and above the highs of the pattern if we sell.
I spotted a horizontal trading range on an hourly time frame on AUDUSD. I set a sell limit order after a breakout of its neckline. Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
2️⃣
Once we are in a trade, you should measure the pattern's range (distance from its high to its low based on wicks) and then project that range from the entry to the direction of the trade.
In the picture above, the pattern range and its projection are the underlined blue areas.
Once the price reaches the projection of the pattern's range, you should move your stop loss to entry and make your position risk-free.
Move stop to breakeven in traders' slang.
3️⃣
Then you should let the market go.
📈If you are holding a long position, you should let the market retrace and set a higher low and then a new higher high or AT LEAST an equal high. Once these conditions are met, you can trail your stop and set it below the last higher low.
📉If you are holding a short position, you should let the market retrace and set a lower high and then a new lower low or AT LEAST an equal low. Once these conditions are met, you can trail your stop and set it above the last lower high.
In the example above, stop loss was modified when the price set a new lower high. Stop loss is now lying above that.
Catching a trending market you should trail your stop based on new higher lows / lower highs that the price sets. Occasionally you will catch big winners.
How do you apply a trailing stop?
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Learn FAKEOUT, BREAKOUT, RETEST | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 very important market situations that every trader must be able to recognize: breakout, retest, and fakeout.
❗️ Please, note that the essential element of all these terms is structure: vertical and horizontal key levels.
📍 Breakout is a situation when the market breaks the identified horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line.
Breakout is a very important event that signifies the willingness of buyers/sellers to violate the structures. Violation of support signifies a strong selling pressure, while a violation of resistance signifies a high buying momentum.
Usually, the structure breakout is confirmed with a candle close.
For confirmation of a breakout of support, a candle close below that is needed.
For confirmation of a breakout of resistance, a candle close above is required.
Take a look at a bearish breakout of a key support on Gold. After the breakout, the broken support turned into a resistance and was respected multiple times. It was broken by the buyers then and turned into a support again.
📍 Retest is the situation when the price returns to broken horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line after a confirmed breakout.
For a structure breakout, high trading volumes are needed. Usually, after a breakout, the market participants are locally exhausted and a correctional movement follows. That may lead to a retest of a broken structure.
Most of the time, after a retest, a strong impulse follows. For that reason, for many traders, the retest is applied for trading entries.
Here is how nicely the price violated a key support on Gold. After a violation, the market became oversold and the price retested the broken structure.
📍 Fakeout or false breakout is the situation when the price has not enough strength to maintain its direction after a retest of a broken structure. Instead, the market returns below/above the broken resistance/support.
Above, is the example of a false breakout on EURUSD.
Fakeout is one of the main reasons why structure traders lose money.
One of the ways to avoid fakeout is to monitor trading volumes during a structure breakout. A volume spike is needed to confirm the strength of the market participants, while low volumes most of the time signify a manipulation.
Learn to spot breakouts and false ones, and try to trade on a retest.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Ichimoku Cloud: How To GuideHave you ever considered using the Ichimoku Cloud, a powerful and versatile technical analysis tool that goes beyond traditional chart analysis?
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Discover the Ichimoku Cloud, technical analysis tool developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s.
This method visually represents support and resistance levels, providing crucial insights into trend direction and momentum.
Let's delve into the key aspects of the Ichimoku Cloud, providing you with insights and skills to take another step up in your trading game.
1. Understanding Ichimoku Cloud
Components of the Cloud:
The Ichimoku Cloud comprises five key elements — Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B, and the Kumo (cloud). Grasping the role of each component is fundamental to interpreting the cloud's signals.
- Kijun Sen (red line): The standard line or base line, calculated by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 26 periods.
- Tenkan Sen (blue line): The turning line, derived by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past nine periods.
- Chikou Span (green line): The lagging line, representing today’s closing price plotted 26 periods behind.
- Senkou Span (red/green line): The first Senkou line is calculated by averaging the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen and plotted 26 periods ahead. The second Senkou line is determined by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 52 periods and plotted 26 periods ahead.
It’s not necessary to memorize the computations; understanding their interpretation is key.
2. Trading Strategies with Ichimoku
Kumo Twists and Turns:
The twists and turns of the Kumo offer valuable signals. A bullish twist occurs when Senkou Span A crosses above Span B, while a bearish twist is signaled by the reverse. These crossovers present entry and exit points.
The Power of Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen:
The relationship between the faster Tenkan-sen and the slower Kijun-sen offers additional insights. A bullish crossover suggests a potential uptrend, while a bearish crossover may indicate a trend reversal.
Utilizing the Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span (Chikou) acts as a momentum indicator. Confirming its position relative to the price and cloud provides a powerful confirmation tool for trend strength.
3. Practical Tips for Ichimoku Trading
Timeframe Considerations:
Adapt your approach based on the timeframe. Longer timeframes offer a broader market perspective, while shorter timeframes can reveal short-term trends.
Risk Management:
Like any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Set stop-loss orders, and ensure risk-reward ratios are carefully considered before executing a trade.
Backtesting and Practice:
Before going live, engage in extensive backtesting and paper trading. This will hone your understanding of Ichimoku signals and enhance your ability to interpret them in real-time.
4. How to Interpret Ichimoku Lines
Senkou Span:
- If the price is above the Senkou span, the top line serves as the first support level while the bottom line serves as the second support level.
- If the price is below the Senkou span, the bottom line forms the first resistance level while the top line is the second resistance level.
Kijun Sen:
- Acts as an indicator of future price movement.
- If the price is higher than the blue line, it could continue to climb higher. If below, it could keep dropping.
Tenkan Sen:
- An indicator of the market trend.
- If the red line is moving up or down, it indicates a trending market. If it moves horizontally, it signals a ranging market.
Chikou Span:
- A buy signal if the green line crosses the price from bottom-up.
- A sell signal if the green line crosses the price from top-down.
As a trend-following indicator, Ichimoku can be applied across various markets and timeframes. Emphasizing trading in the direction of the trend, it helps avoid entering the wrong side of the market.
With its combination of support and resistance levels, crossovers, oscillators, and trend indicators, Ichimoku simplifies complex analysis, making it an invaluable tool for traders seeking a comprehensive approach to technical analysis.
Dive into the charts, explore the strategies, happy trading!
4 Types of Gap You MUST Know in Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss a very common pattern that is called gap.
In technical analysis, the gap is the difference between the closing price of the previous candlestick and the opening price of the next candlestick.
📈Gap up represents a situation when the price bounces up sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another. The price gap that appears between them is called gap up.
📉Gap down represents a situation when the price drops sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another, the price gap between the closing price of the previous candle and the opening price of the next candle is called a gap down.
From my experience, I realized that with a high probability the gap tends to be filled. For that reason, once you see a gap, consider trading opportunities around that.
Depending on the market conditions where the gap appears, there are several types of a gap to know:
1️⃣Common gap appears in a weak, calm market. When the trading volumes are low and the market participants are waiting for some trigger, or the asset reached a fair value price.
Above, there is a perfect example of a common gap that was formed on Dollar Index on an hourly time frame.
2️⃣Breakaway gap appears in a situation when the price suddenly breaks a structure (support or resistance) in a form of a gap.
Such a gap usually confirms a structure breakout.
I spotted a perfect breakaway gap on Dollar Index. The market violated a solid horizontal support with that.
3️⃣Runaway gap usually appears when the market is growing or falling sharply. It signifies the dominance of buyers/sellers and highly probable continuation. Usually such gaps are not filled.
Runaway was a perfect indicator of a strength of buyers on US30 Index.
4️⃣Exhaustion gap is, in contrast, appears around major key levels and signifies a highly probable reversal. The exhaustion gap is usually confirmed by a consequent strong opposite movement that fills the gap.
US100 formed an exhaustion gap, trading in a strong bullish wave. After that the gap was filled and the market started to fall rapidly, forming a breakaway gap.
Learn to recognize gaps on a chart and learn to interpret them. It will increase the accuracy of your technical analysis.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Eagle Eye Investor looks at both Macro and Micro angles. Having an Eagle Eye from above on the sector gives us an overall perspective how the group of companies with similar business might perform. Having seen the performance or out performance of the sector we can than fine tune our direction towards one or two top companies of that particular sector or the companies that look best on charts in that particular sector so that we can maximize our gains from the market.
Investor has to understand that this is not a foolproof plan of investing and lot of other things like fundamentals of the companies one is investing in and other factors should be considered before investing. However more often than not when a sector outperforms or an index outperforms others indices generally companies of that particular business segment tend to do well along with that particular index.
Vice versa if that particular sector is giving a breakdown or is sending weak signals on the chart one can decrease allocation or exit the sector or investment in the sector if needed based on the chart or fundamentals of that particular company. To do this one has to know the charts well and understand buy and sell signals on the chart pretty well. To become an expert in Techo-Funda analysis you can contact us or interact in the reply to this message.
Today we will have a look at Bank Nifty to understand this further. Below is the chart of Bank Nifty:
From the look at the chart we can understand Bank Nifty has taken support at 200 days EMA and is going towards 50 days EMA. Once Bank nifty crosses 50 days EMA there can be a very good rally seen in this particular index. The rally can be in the range of 2 to 8% is what we can assume based on the resistances seen in the form of red lines on the chart. The green lines in addition of 200 EMA are supports. Right now 50 EMA will act as a resistance but if we get a closing above this ‘Mother line’, 50 EMA might also become a support. The analysis presented here is for you to understand how support and resistances work and should not be considered for buying or selling Bank Nifty. The purpose is to provide our readers a perspective for looking always at the bigger picture. An investor should have the knowledge of Micro and well as Macro causes affecting the investment.
Having understood that Banking index might do well an investor can further have a look at constituents of this index which are Hdfc Bank, Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, PNB, SBI, Axis bank, AU bank, Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda as well as Bandhan Bank. After having studied the technical and the fundamentals of all these companies an investor can further decide where he can make a positional or long term investment. Such an approach will definitely act as a safety net for investor. This kind of approach can also be compared to taking the second opinion of a Doctor before going for any medical procedure.
Remember that now all the stocks in an index will move equally some will move faster, some will move at the same pace, some will move slowly and some will not move at all or move negatively. You have to be smart in selection of your stocks from the particular index and you will surely be able to beat the market and Ace the Art of investing.
Disclaimer:
Investment in stocks and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature.
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
Trading Initial BalancesWhat Are Initial Balances?
Initial balances refer to a specific time frame at the beginning of a trading session, typically the first few minutes or hours when a market opens. During this period, traders closely observe price movements and volume to gauge market sentiment and establish trading strategies for the rest of the session.
How Initial Balance Trading Works
The concept of initial balance trading is rooted in the idea that the price and volume behavior during the initial balance period can provide valuable insights into the day's trading potential. Here's how it works:
1. Observation: Traders closely watch the price action and volume during the initial balance period, which often includes the first 30 minutes to one hour of a trading session. This is a critical phase for assessing market dynamics.
2. Key Levels: Traders identify key price levels during the initial balance period, such as the high and low points. These levels can serve as significant reference points for the day's trading activities.
3. Breakouts: Breakouts above or below the initial balance range can signal potential trading opportunities. A breakout above the initial balance high may suggest bullish momentum, while a breakout below it may indicate bearish sentiment.
This is My Favourite ICT Day Trading ModelHello traders,
This is the complete breakdown of my favourite ICT Day Trading Model.
This is so easy to replicate on any two time frames. One must be higher, while the second one which is for entry should be lower.
The higher time frame is for market direction, orderflow, trend.
Identify your discount and premium levels on higher time frame.
above 50% of your fib is premium, while below 50% is your discount.
If price is bearish, you are to look for sell opportunities when price retrace back to your premium levels.
Then go to your lower time frame to look for selling opportunities.
Your entry should be taken mostly within London kill zone.
For you to have a quality A+ trade setup, time and price must align together with your trade idea.
Your trade idea have a high probability of working out if you take your entry within London Kill Zone.
Look at my chart diagram to understand the model.
Trade Reversals Successfully - Key Price Action to look forIn the video I talk through the two trades namely trading continuation with Trend and then trading Countertrend Reversals. Both have their own price action points but are very different.
I review a continuation trade and the setups I look for when trading from level to level...but the main focus on the video is trading Reversals which can be very rewarding but also very difficult.
I like to stick to a few key points when looking for reversals, and they are :-
- Trade off an extension into a key level
- Trade off a higher low (for buys) or lower high (for sells)
- M pattern for entry confirmation or a minor lower high
In the video I explain the reasoning and how risk is managed.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Ichimoku Setups (for beginners)Here are the entry conditions in detail:
Before getting in a trade, find your trend confirmation signals.
They let you know which direction the market is moving in.
Trend confirmation signals (for a buy):
- 2 candle lows above the cloud (shows that the trend has changed)
- Lagging line above the cloud
- Price/Lagging line has to be above the trendline
Trend confirmation signals (for a sell):
- 2 candle highs below the cloud (shows that the trend has changed)
- Lagging line below the cloud
- Price/Lagging line has to be below the trendline
Now, for getting in a trade, use any one of these entry triggers:
- Turning line above Standard line for a buy (blue line above red line)
- Standard line above Turning line for a sell (red line above blue line)
- Price goes to the Standard line (blue line)
- Price goes to Span A (the top of a green cloud or bottom of a red cloud)
For an extra confirmation, wait for candlestick patterns (like an engulfing candle) which happen when price goes to Span A or the Standard line.
Mastering Market StructureBullish Market Structure:
Bullish Vibes! It's all about making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. When you spot this pattern, you're riding the wave of optimism in the market, and it's your chance to seize the moment and soar with the bulls.
Consolidation Market Structure:
Consolidation Market Structure is all about lateral movement, where the market forms Equal Highs and Equal Lows. It's a phase of uncertainty, with neither bulls nor bears holding a clear advantage. Traders often await a breakout to determine the next market direction.
Bearish Market Structure:
Bearish Market Structure: Get ready for Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Sellers are in control, creating a solid downtrend. Traders look for short entry opportunities on retracements.
Live Trades and Price Action setups explainedIn the video I review my trades on the DOW Jones Index for the session and talk through the setups, price action and reasoning for the trades. I also talk through the overall bias for the session and the missed opportunity from my sessions plan.
Feel free to join in our live trading room....link in the signature below.
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** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Analysis of the psychology and Price Action of a momentum moveIn this video I take a look at the psychology of a phase of Price Action that we traded in out Live Trading Room.
I review the key price action that I am looking for to get involved in the action for a new momentum push up/down. Our aim in trading is always to enter a trade in the 'unknown' as traders start to realise they are on the wrong side of the action...this gives us the biggest payouts.
Intraday Trading is a process of doing the analysis, reviews and having confidence in your read when LIVE trading.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
How to find Key Price Action zones for Daytrading successPrepping a market for daytrading is an important part of my process and understanding and identifying the KEY LEVELS is the major part of that process.
We have to build a Price Action picture of what may happen and what levels may be targeted so we will be ready for a trade. Understanding who (buyers or sellers) is getting caught off side and levels the market is targeting, will set us up for the higher probability trades.
I discuss a few key concepts for Intraday trading and how I identify the important zones. I show some trade examples and high probability trade zones.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
My thoughts on the coming week ... Whats up gold gang! .. price has closed above the monthly level .. 1000 pips ish in a week wow! thats crazy
im expecting a small retracement before lifting off once more for gold this week ..
the candle closed with no top wick, so a retrace is likely before more upside due to the ongoing conflict in Israel
Ill be back later for the official outlook .. until then .. enjoy your sunday
tommy
Yen-Ruble TutorialAs you can see market forces react on investor attitude with spirits, investors make decisions based on their mood and statistics. We see gold chart is jumping from fear territory, fashioning greed in mood, while Yen-Rub is plummet from the euphoria. While other assets symbolize peril for this manner, we believe market forces move in cycles in the twinkling of an eye. Majoring in this pasture as luck may have it transmit analyst on an even keel amid angel stew.
Trading in the Asian-Russian ReneissacneAs you can see last months correlations between Yuan-Ruble pair with gold spot prices present good levels to take long and short positions to hold them for a month. To do this look at the bottom of the chart where are prices of commodities and pairs which play role in current geopolitics related to the said arbitrage opportunities. Look for big upside swings to take positions and wait for a sell-offs afterwards. This is pretty like balancing on the ocean waves.
Draw the MASTER PATTERN CONCEPTS by handHOW TO MANUALLY DRAW THE MASTER PATTERN CONCEPTS
# STEP 1 - Identify the Contraction Phase
The contraction phase consists of a tightening of price where there is a simultaneous lower high and higher low, this is where the supply and demand equalize in the market. This is a leading indication that volatility is coming next.
You want to look for places where you find contraction/constriction of price, where it clearly looks like its moving into a defined consolidation zone.
STEP 2 - Identify the Expansion Phase
The expansion phase is the 2nd phase in the market, its known as the manipulation phase. It reveals incoming volatility entering into the market, this is where most retailers lose their money.
This phase can be defined as price breaking out of the contraction box, and whip sawing around the value line. This is the accumulation phase where the market makers accumulate their inventory from weaker hand holders.
Price usually whipsaws around the value line 4-7 times before the 3rd phase in the market starts, which is the trend phase.
STEP 3 - Identify Liquidity Lines
Liquidity lines are where the retailers place their stop losses, it is an excellent places to enter and exit the market.
These can be defined as HH or LL points on the chart where there are swing high and swing low points. By anticipating where these stop loss levels are located you can be aware where there are pools of resting liquidity. These are excellent places to enter or exit the market.
Understanding Contraction / Expansion and Liquidity are key price action concepts that help you understand trading from an institutional level and give you a deeper insight into the intentions of the market.






















