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Editors' picks

Bitcoin's Correlation to Tech Stocks About to Change?The above chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ). The correlation between these two is the highest ever . See the chart below for a closer look. For the stats nerds out there, here are the current correlation values between BTC and QQQ (as measured by using monthly closing prices with a 20-period look back): r value is 0.936, r-squared is 0.7916, p value is 0. This extreme correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is unlikely to last much longer. Correlations between assets tend to oscillate over time. Therefore, this extremely positive correlation is likely to oscillate down soon, which will have the effect of weakening the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, or in a more drastic scenario, turn the positive correlation into a negative one. If the correlation between BTC and QQQ does in fact weaken or turn negative, then it must also be true that both assets cannot continue their strong rallies at the same time. So we're left with an important question: Which asset will outperform the other if the perfect positive correlation ends? We can use a ratio chart to extrapolate the answer: the BTC/QQQ ratio chart. So let's look at that chart. In the chart above, we see the price of Bitcoin on the left and Bitcoin's performance relative to QQQ on the right. We can see that even though Bitcoin has been on a bull run, it has already rolled over to the downside relative to the performance of QQQ. When we look at the Stochastic RSI oscillator, as shown in the chart below, we see confirmation that Bitcoin is potentially beginning to oscillate back down relative to its performance to QQQ on the weekly chart. However, look at what happens when we examine the monthly chart. The exact opposite appears to be true. (See the chart below) In the monthly chart of BTC/QQQ, Bitcoin is just beginning a major oscillation up. What we're probably seeing is the monthly candle of BTC/QQQ creating a lower wick, which is why it appears that the weekly BTC/QQQ chart is oscillating down. If we zoom out even further -- to the quarterly (or 3-month) chart -- we see even further confirmation that Bitcoin is set to outperform the Nasdaq 100. (See the chart below) In the chart above we see a perfect log growth curve of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq 100, with bullish reversal candlesticks beginning to form on the quarterly timeframe. We also see the Stochastic RSI ready to oscillate back up, meaning Bitcoin is poised to begin a period of outperformance relative to tech stocks on the higher timeframes. Other charts lead us to a similar conclusion. In the yearly chart of QQQ/SPY, shown below, we see that the Nasdaq 100 is set to underperform the S&P 500 for the long term. This suggests that the current rally in the Nasdaq 100 stocks is potentially a bull trap or a lower timeframe counter-trend. As the Nasdaq 100 is set to begin to underperform the S&P 500, the S&P 500 itself is showing downward momentum on its yearly chart. If this downward momentum sustains to the close of 2023, it will mark an incredibly rare, and also quite bearish, signal for both indices. These, and other, higher timeframe charts are explained in more depth in my post below about the coming period of stagflation. In summary, virtually all of the higher timeframe charts indicate that the period of limitless monetary easing is over, and we've entered into a new supercycle wherein the price of money will remain some degree higher. So it seems that Bitcoin continues to win. As the stock market indices break out and create what time will likely prove to be another bull trap, Bitcoin is likely on a path toward more sustained bullishness than equities. In the face of stagflation, equities suffer from both a declining money supply (as the central banks fight inflation) and declining productivity. Although Bitcoin is not immune to similar declines, its perpetual scarcity may provide a unique tailwind during the coming period of stagflation.
Editors' picks
32
Fight or Flight?On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as "encouraging and gratifying". This was the point that markets took as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the idea that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets, potentially shortsightedly, adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying until one of two cases occurs: First, if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens markets into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the rate of CPI inflation. Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently between 4.5% and 4.75% whilst CPI inflation is at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th of February will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence for economic hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing seems certain, the S&P500 is likely to take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
Editors' picks
17
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion. During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates). Alphabet - full-year 2022 results. Net income = $59.97 billion (vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY) Operating income = $74.84 billion (vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY) Revenue = $282.83 billion (vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY) Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023. Amazon - full-year 2022 results. Net loss = $-2.7 billion (vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY) Operating income = $12.2 billion (vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY) Net sales = $514 billion (vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY) Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates. Apple - 1st quarter FY2023 Net income = $29.98 billion (vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%) Net sales = $117.2 billion (vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY) Operating income = $36.01 billion (vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY) Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
40
Please curb your enthusiasm in Bitcoin.At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all over for Bitcoin. They are basically marketers not traders. They market for Buybit or Bitget or whoever. They make a lot of money when someone like you puts money into an exchange account. Now, turning to logic: Look at the chart, especially at the volume, which tells us a story, which I have marked. There is also the psychological story. Lots of you are nursing nasty red bags from the last consolidation around $30,000. You would love it to get there so you can get out. PSA: That's why it won't get there this time. Maybe next time, possibly after you have given up and sold your position after the next drop. All the price has done is pierce a succession of stop-loss levels to ping out the shorts who sold lower down, believing the negative press and the chat from exactly the same people who are now saying it is going up. I reckon one more pop up to the next level just north of $25,000, then a slow melting away, with you buying every dip. Patience is a virtue. It's hard to be patient I know. Hang on, this is a MONTHLY structure and this is still the beginning of the accumulation, not the end. We will tell you when we think it is the end.
Editors' picks
Long
85
You Can Have the Cake and Eat it TooCBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is now at its highest level since October 2007. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sends mixed signals in his post-FOMC meeting news conference but appears more dovish comparing to previous speeches. The Committee thinks that “on-going increases in the target range will be appropriate”. These words send stocks down minutes after the speech begins at 2:30PM. However, during the Q&A session, when the Fed Chair confirms, for the first time, that “the disinflationary process has started,” the stock market rebounds strongly and finishes in the positive territory for the day. Other mixed messages: • Inflation data shows a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases; • It would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this”; • It’s “possible” that the funds rate could stay lower than 5%; • Unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year unless inflation comes down more rapidly. Actions speak louder than words. In two rate-setting meetings, the Fed has slowed the pace from 75 bps to 25 bps. The path is not likely to reverse, and future rate hikes will come down to just two options, either 0 or 25 bps. In my opinion, the terminal rate will end at 5% or 5.25% after the March and May meeting. In recent months, the “Risk” button has been pressed on for risky assets: • The Dow is up 19% since October, and the S&P and the Nasdaq are up 17% and 18% for the same period, respectively; • Gold futures rallies 21% since November, while Bitcoin jumps 58%; • Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF gain 47% and 33% year-to-date, respectively. Historically, it’s rare for the stock market to dip two years or more in a row. For the S&P 500, it only happened four times in the last 100 years. The odds favor stock investors in the Year of Rabbits after a brutal double-digit selloff in 2022. Fed rate hikes and high inflation are like a brake that decelerated the running economy car. Now that the driver’s foot is off the brake, will the economy improve immediately? Not so fast. We will endure higher costs for months to come. Take the example of food items, once the price goes up, it usually stays up for the year. Sometimes, suppliers resolve to reducing the size of package for the illusion of keeping the same price, a tactic known as “Shrinkflation”. Wages, rent, phone bill, cable TV, utility, homeowner association fees and sales tax also seldom go down. All these point to a sticky inflation. Without massive government stimulus to press the gas pedal, subdued growth is on the horizon. However, the stock market is forward looking. Investors already see an "invisible foot" on the accelerator and begin buying in the dip. On balance, I’m bullish about risky assets, but would consider protecting my investments carefully. The inversed yield curve is a proven and tested signal of a potential recession. The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread is at -64 bps after the Fed rate decision. The yield spread turned negative last July and stayed below zero in the last seven months. Major crises could break out unexpectedly, crashing our party. The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate, and the US government might not be able to avoid a national debt default. A Hedged Position on Stock Index Futures We could consider using the CME Micro E-mini S&P futures to establish a bullish position on the U.S. stock market. The June contract MESM3 is currently quoted at 4177, which is 58 points above the cash index. To protect my position from any adverse market movement, an out-of-the-money put option could be placed at the 3950-strike. If you are more pessimistic, a lower strike of 3840 may be considered. The benefit of futures over cash index ETFs lies with the leverage. With a smaller margin deposit upfront, investment return could be amplified if the market moves in your favor. The downside is that the loss will also ramp up quickly if the market moves against you. Put options protect us from any downfall below the strike price. Unlike futures, the maximum loss from a long options position is the premium you have paid upfront. A combination of long futures and long put options is, in theory, limited downside with unlimited upside. The risk and return tradeoff are asymmetry in this case. As a result, you can have the cake and eat it too! Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
Long
6
POST FOMC Analysis For The S&P 500 ES1!For traders it's not about what the Fed does or is going to do, it's about how the market reacts to what the Fed does. Today the FOMC raised rates by .25 basis points and the markets took off. As of right now the bulls are in control, but for how much longer? In today's video I go over how I will determine a market top and ways to tell if this rally still has legs. I use auto anchored VWAP, Bollinger Bands, and the RSI. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is for educational purposes only. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
Editors' picks
10
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right?Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps hike followed by some commentary/guidance on the next cause of action. Based on CME’s Fedwatch tool, markets are expecting a last hike of 25bps in the March FOMC before a pause in the hiking cycle. Now keep that in mind. One interesting relationship we can try to observe is how the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread behaves in relation to where the Fed’s rate is. We note a few things here. Firstly, the ‘peak’ point of the 2Yr-10Yr spread seems to happen right around the point when rate hikes are paused. With the Fed likely to pause as soon as March, we seem to be on the same path, setting up for a potential decline in the spread. Secondly, the average of the past 3 inversions lasted for around 455 days, and if you count just the start of the inversion to the peak, we’re looking at an average of 215 Days. Based on historical averages, we are past the middle mark and have also likely peaked, with current inversion roughly 260 days deep. Looking at the shorter end of the yield curve, we can apply the same analysis on the 3M-10Yr yield spread. The ‘peak’ point of the 3M-10Yr yield spread is marked closer to the point when the Fed cuts, except in 2006, while the average number of days in inversion was 219 days and the average number of days to ‘peak’ inversion was 138 days. With the current inversion at 105 days for the 3M-10Yr Yield spread, we are likely halfway, but the peak is likely not yet in. (Although eerily close to when the Fed is likely to announce its last hike, March FOMC, 51 days away). Comparing the 2 yield curve spreads, we think a stronger case can be made for the 2Yr-10Yr spread having peaked and likely to un-invert soon. Handily, CME has the Micro Treasury Yield Futures, quoted in yield terms, which allows us to express this view in a straightforward manner allaying the complications with DV01 calculation. We create the short yield spread position by taking a short position in the Micro 2-Yr Yield Futures and a long position in the Micro 10-Yr Yield Futures, at an entry-level of 0.623, with 1 basis point move equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
11
Short-term up with range later in 2023Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies) CME Micro Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 = $0.50 1 = $2 10 = $20 100 = $200 1000 = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
Long
8
The moment of truth is upon us, BTC's huge potentialThis week things are very simple and the stakes are very high. In every significant timeframe, you can see how BTC is at a pivotal point but none other than the 1-week time frame gives us a better view. In this time frame alone you can see Bitcoin price having to overcome the 50MA (yellow wavy line), the 200MA (white wavy line), long-time support (thick straight white line), and midterm resistance (Thin straight white line). So what are we looking for? BTC has to jump up and close above all of these obstacles in a decisive way, anything less than that will signal weakness. Exactly what do I mean by decisive? BTC needs to have a very good week (long green candle) this or next at the very latest and close at 28k or 27k. As of right now 1 of the 4 obstacles has been conquered -- the midterm resistance, which is the weakest. Keep watching this timeframe. Hit and follow and I will post more. There's so much to unpack in this timeframe alone: The 200MA (white wavy line) has been for many years support to BTC but it was lost back in June 2022. The 200MA (white wavy line) and 50MA (yellow line) are going to make a death cross unless BTC pulls up. The thick white straight line was strong support and was lost back in September 2022, now it is strong resistance This is as hard as it gets for BTC. If it goes over decisively and it starts to close above I will be convinced of a recovery. This chart I call lines only, it has made me a lot of money due to its reliability. Candles can create a lot of noise and make a chart look too busy so I created a chart with simplicity and reliability. How does it work? When all color lines cross under the white line it's lights out and we are going down for a while and when all lines have crossed above the white line it's all good times. As you can see so far it looks like good times are ahead but I do not make a move on short-term trades unless all lines have crossed. VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Editors' picks
44

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February 02February 02

You can't please everyone

Snaps has been on a downward spiral since late 2021, and it’s been doing what it can to turn things around. Unfortunately, its latest report looks like the trend just isn’t ready to be reversed. After all, it’s not an easy thing to do. In crypto world, LBRY’s SEC appeal has its LBC token looking somewhat hopeful. And in currency news, the Swiss franc is making some headway against the dollar. Let’s dive in.

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LBRY lets loose

The SEC has been causing trouble for LBRY for some time now, but the latest development was actually positive.

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Trade ideas

Bitcoin's Correlation to Tech Stocks About to Change?The above chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ). The correlation between these two is the highest ever . See the chart below for a closer look. For the stats nerds out there, here are the current correlation values between BTC and QQQ (as measured by using monthly closing prices with a 20-period look back): r value is 0.936, r-squared is 0.7916, p value is 0. This extreme correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is unlikely to last much longer. Correlations between assets tend to oscillate over time. Therefore, this extremely positive correlation is likely to oscillate down soon, which will have the effect of weakening the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, or in a more drastic scenario, turn the positive correlation into a negative one. If the correlation between BTC and QQQ does in fact weaken or turn negative, then it must also be true that both assets cannot continue their strong rallies at the same time. So we're left with an important question: Which asset will outperform the other if the perfect positive correlation ends? We can use a ratio chart to extrapolate the answer: the BTC/QQQ ratio chart. So let's look at that chart. In the chart above, we see the price of Bitcoin on the left and Bitcoin's performance relative to QQQ on the right. We can see that even though Bitcoin has been on a bull run, it has already rolled over to the downside relative to the performance of QQQ. When we look at the Stochastic RSI oscillator, as shown in the chart below, we see confirmation that Bitcoin is potentially beginning to oscillate back down relative to its performance to QQQ on the weekly chart. However, look at what happens when we examine the monthly chart. The exact opposite appears to be true. (See the chart below) In the monthly chart of BTC/QQQ, Bitcoin is just beginning a major oscillation up. What we're probably seeing is the monthly candle of BTC/QQQ creating a lower wick, which is why it appears that the weekly BTC/QQQ chart is oscillating down. If we zoom out even further -- to the quarterly (or 3-month) chart -- we see even further confirmation that Bitcoin is set to outperform the Nasdaq 100. (See the chart below) In the chart above we see a perfect log growth curve of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq 100, with bullish reversal candlesticks beginning to form on the quarterly timeframe. We also see the Stochastic RSI ready to oscillate back up, meaning Bitcoin is poised to begin a period of outperformance relative to tech stocks on the higher timeframes. Other charts lead us to a similar conclusion. In the yearly chart of QQQ/SPY, shown below, we see that the Nasdaq 100 is set to underperform the S&P 500 for the long term. This suggests that the current rally in the Nasdaq 100 stocks is potentially a bull trap or a lower timeframe counter-trend. As the Nasdaq 100 is set to begin to underperform the S&P 500, the S&P 500 itself is showing downward momentum on its yearly chart. If this downward momentum sustains to the close of 2023, it will mark an incredibly rare, and also quite bearish, signal for both indices. These, and other, higher timeframe charts are explained in more depth in my post below about the coming period of stagflation. In summary, virtually all of the higher timeframe charts indicate that the period of limitless monetary easing is over, and we've entered into a new supercycle wherein the price of money will remain some degree higher. So it seems that Bitcoin continues to win. As the stock market indices break out and create what time will likely prove to be another bull trap, Bitcoin is likely on a path toward more sustained bullishness than equities. In the face of stagflation, equities suffer from both a declining money supply (as the central banks fight inflation) and declining productivity. Although Bitcoin is not immune to similar declines, its perpetual scarcity may provide a unique tailwind during the coming period of stagflation.
Editors' picks
32
RLinda ! BTCUSD-> Consolidation before entering a new range Bitcoin is on track for a weekly gain of 1.4% from the previous week's opening, as the Fed president indicated that the central bank's fight against inflation is showing progress The price of bitcoin fell as the January jobs report was released. It surpassed economists' expectations, proving itself more than twice as strong as expected. As the job market remains overheated, the flagship cryptocurrency responded by falling below the $24,000 level it recovered earlier this week. The flagship briefly crossed 24,000 on Thursday to a nearly six-month high, but has mostly remained in the 22500 to 23900 range this week. The total capitalization of the crypto market now stands at $1.08tn. That's down 0.8% from Thursday BTCUSD The rally this year appears to be driven mostly by institutional investors, as retail investors retreat from the crypto market Technical analysis in terms of price action As we can see, bitcoin is breaking out of the downward price channel, opening the way to a new range, but first, it needs to break the closest boundary - the 23954-24920 range, in which case the price will open the way to 31411 - a liquidity zone and a strong resistance line. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase for two weeks after a fairly strong rise. The positive factors : the price does not fall after the growth - which means that the buyer is interested in moving the price up, numerous retests of the resistance area are formed and each time the price goes deeper. Half of the 14 days of consolidation, the price is above the previously broken boundary of the descending channel. With the final consolidation in the long zone, the bulls will open the way to the following targets : 24920, 28500, 30000, 31400 Regards R. Linda!
Long
34
Bitcoin: Sell Setup Retrace 20K?Are you still waiting for 50K? While this kind of forecast is completely unrealistic and out of range, it is ESPECIALLY so in light of the new SELL SIGNAL that has appeared off of the 24K resistance following Friday's NFP outcome. As I wrote in my previous analysis, when 5 waves can be clearly counted, the move has likely run out of steam. While this is still a risky short, being long anywhere from 23 to 24K poses very high risk as well. This is a perfect example of when to avoid swing trades and mitigate risk by working with smaller time frames. The next swing trade idea that I am WAITING for is the retrace into the next relevant support AREA between 22K and 20K (see rectangle on chart). If this support manages to hold, it can offer an opportunity to capitalize on a retest of the 24K, and possibly a push into the 25K resistance. This type of move can take weeks to unfold, and is relevant only to the recent bullish momentum generated off the 17K area low. I mention this specifically because when observed from the weekly time frame, the broader trend is still arguably bearish. The recent move in Bitcoin may be nothing more than an over reaction (short squeeze) following the move in the Nasdaq and weakness in the Dollar. As long as 25K is not compromised, jumping to the conclusion of a new bullish trend is premature. This is NOT about profit, it is about accounting for RISK. It is important to understand that charts provide a very limited view of potential outcomes because of the assumption that current factors driving the market stay the same. Things CHANGE very quickly and a chart cannot account for unexpected news events in the future. This is why long term opinions are about as valuable as a pet rock. Many are extremely desperate for you to believe that they know something, when in fact that are only betting on the random nature of the market to make them look right. Okay you get it, but what about all this short term movement? You hate to wait, and want action. That is what smaller time frame strategies are all about. For Bitcoin that can mean working with 4 hour, 30 minute and even 5 minute time frames. When working on such time frames, your risk/reward expectations must also stay in proportion to the time frame. If you mix expectations here, you will simply lose, a LOT. For example, 5 minute expectations average around 80 to 100 points of risk, while 150 to 200 points of profit are within reason. IF you expect MORE, you will get stopped out often. Smaller time frames are where the random nature of the market is most prevalent. An open mind and strong decisiveness are major requirements (A LOT of experience also helps). Begin with 30 minute price structures, formulate expectations, identify your levels and wait for setups. I have streamed many examples of this. Keep in mind you ALWAYS have the option to WAIT for a higher probability opportunity. This is why I always emphasize learning to judge for yourself rather than listening to those who are incapable of controlling their emotions, or push some other hidden agenda. Learn to listen to PRICE not PEOPLE. A chart offers limited information but it pays to know which information on a chart carries the MOST actionable value, Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
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Lingrid | GOLD weekly OUTLOOKThis week the price of gold reached its highest level since April near 1,955 after a relatively quiet start to the week, but it then had a significant reversal toward the end of the week and closed below the main resistance at 1,900 for the first time in three weeks. After the US data releases the gold made nosedive and next week I think the market will consolidate after reaching that area between 1900 - 1850. The next levels to watch might be 1900 and if price rolls back to it will be nice zone to take a short trade. On the weekly timeframe PRICE action formed bearish outside bar. The price broke 2 week candle's lows that gives a bearish signal. Let me remind you of my previous forecast from last week. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
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#BTC/USDT Red Monday Incoming? #BTC :- LTF shows a possibility of some corrections starting this week. Alts will follow. Be careful if you have been profitable in the last 5 weeks. IMHO, It's time to keep some profits aside and play carefully. This is a short-term view and if gone right it can suck all gains made in the last few weeks if you are on leverage. Please be careful and use Stop Losses. INVALIDATION:- BTC Closing above $25k. This is not financial advice So DYOR. Do hit the like button if you like it. Thank you Peace
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Ethereum - Ready for explosion! (Must see) ETH is a ticking bomb at this moment, because my analysis suggests an explosive move is about to happen. I hope your bags are full! As you can see, the price is breaking out of a bullish pennant on the 4h chart with a successful retest. What more do you need? The price is moving in an ascending parallel channel, and it's very important for ETH to hold this channel; otherwise, we are going to lose the bullish momentum. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are currently still in the 3rd wave, so you don't need to worry about a potential crash; it's not going to happen. During wave 4, we will see a small pullback, but nothing dramatic. After we finish this whole impulse wave, then it's going to be awful, and the bears will step in. The first stop is the next strong resistance. Quarterly / monthly highs and 0.5 FIB are definitely strong resistance, there is no doubt about it. This could be your profit target for this trade if you want to trade in the short term. Since the start of the new year, I haven't opened any short positions on futures. I only trade longs at this moment, and this strategy is indeed extremely powerful, because the trend is your friend. Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
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The Russell Riddle: which chart is 2008? ($IWM W) For the answer, scroll down to the comment section. Two charts of $IWM weekly TF. One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023). The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop. Which one crashed 50%? The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008? There are many possible answers, none of them wrong. The one that interests me is the possibility that our bias is more extreme when we have experienced (traded) the price history. In this case it means experiencing the climb from the October 2022 lows. The alternative is basing our bias on the price history in a chart but *without* experiencing the returns themselves. For example IWM's similar price action in 2008. Any difference in sentiment would be consistent with studies showing that decisions made from experience often diverge from those based on description.
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Pine scripts

Smart Money Concepts [LuxAlgo]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category. "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action. The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions. Features This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below: Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time Break of Structure (BOS) Change of Character (CHoCH) Order Blocks (bullish & bearish) Equal Highs & Lows Fair Value Gap Detection Previous Highs & Lows Premium & Discount Zones as a range Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts Settings Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart. Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome. Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart. Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH). Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts. Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels). Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL. Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart. Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart. Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows. Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart. Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart. Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps. Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection. Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart. Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels. Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart Usage Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals. In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart. Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above. As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels. The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator. Conclusion This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Pine Script™ indicator
429
Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification█ OVERVIEW A Lorentzian Distance Classifier (LDC) is a Machine Learning classification algorithm capable of categorizing historical data from a multi-dimensional feature space. This indicator demonstrates how Lorentzian Classification can also be used to predict the direction of future price movements when used as the distance metric for a novel implementation of an Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm. █ BACKGROUND In physics, Lorentzian space is perhaps best known for its role in describing the curvature of space-time in Einstein's theory of General Relativity (2). Interestingly, however, this abstract concept from theoretical physics also has tangible real-world applications in trading. Recently, it was hypothesized that Lorentzian space was also well-suited for analyzing time-series data (4), (5). This hypothesis has been supported by several empirical studies that demonstrate that Lorentzian distance is more robust to outliers and noise than the more commonly used Euclidean distance (1), (3), (6). Furthermore, Lorentzian distance was also shown to outperform dozens of other highly regarded distance metrics, including Manhattan distance, Bhattacharyya similarity, and Cosine similarity (1), (3). Outside of Dynamic Time Warping based approaches, which are unfortunately too computationally intensive for PineScript at this time, the Lorentzian Distance metric consistently scores the highest mean accuracy over a wide variety of time series data sets (1). Euclidean distance is commonly used as the default distance metric for NN-based search algorithms, but it may not always be the best choice when dealing with financial market data. This is because financial market data can be significantly impacted by proximity to major world events such as FOMC Meetings and Black Swan events. This event-based distortion of market data can be framed as similar to the gravitational warping caused by a massive object on the space-time continuum. For financial markets, the analogous continuum that experiences warping can be referred to as "price-time". Below is a side-by-side comparison of how neighborhoods of similar historical points appear in three-dimensional Euclidean Space and Lorentzian Space: This figure demonstrates how Lorentzian space can better accommodate the warping of price-time since the Lorentzian distance function compresses the Euclidean neighborhood in such a way that the new neighborhood distribution in Lorentzian space tends to cluster around each of the major feature axes in addition to the origin itself. This means that, even though some nearest neighbors will be the same regardless of the distance metric used, Lorentzian space will also allow for the consideration of historical points that would otherwise never be considered with a Euclidean distance metric. Intuitively, the advantage inherent in the Lorentzian distance metric makes sense. For example, it is logical that the price action that occurs in the hours after Chairman Powell finishes delivering a speech would resemble at least some of the previous times when he finished delivering a speech. This may be true regardless of other factors, such as whether or not the market was overbought or oversold at the time or if the macro conditions were more bullish or bearish overall. These historical reference points are extremely valuable for predictive models, yet the Euclidean distance metric would miss these neighbors entirely, often in favor of irrelevant data points from the day before the event. By using Lorentzian distance as a metric, the ML model is instead able to consider the warping of price-time caused by the event and, ultimately, transcend the temporal bias imposed on it by the time series. For more information on the implementation details of the Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm used in this indicator, please refer to the detailed comments in the source code. █ HOW TO USE Below is an explanatory breakdown of the different parts of this indicator as it appears in the interface: Below is an explanation of the different settings for this indicator: General Settings: Source - This has a default value of "hlc3" and is used to control the input data source. Neighbors Count - This has a default value of 8, a minimum value of 1, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the number of neighbors to consider. Max Bars Back - This has a default value of 2000. Feature Count - This has a default value of 5, a minimum value of 2, and a maximum value of 5. It controls the number of features to use for ML predictions. Color Compression - This has a default value of 1, a minimum value of 1, and a maximum value of 10. It is used to control the compression factor for adjusting the intensity of the color scale. Show Exits - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to show the exit threshold on the chart. Use Dynamic Exits - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to attempt to let profits ride by dynamically adjusting the exit threshold based on kernel regression. Feature Engineering Settings: Note: The Feature Engineering section is for fine-tuning the features used for ML predictions. The default values are optimized for the 4H to 12H timeframes for most charts, but they should also work reasonably well for other timeframes. By default, the model can support features that accept two parameters (Parameter A and Parameter B, respectively). Even though there are only 4 features provided by default, the same feature with different settings counts as two separate features. If the feature only accepts one parameter, then the second parameter will default to EMA-based smoothing with a default value of 1. These features represent the most effective combination I have encountered in my testing, but additional features may be added as additional options in the future. Feature 1 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 2 - This has a default value of "WT" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 3 - This has a default value of "CCI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 4 - This has a default value of "ADX" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 5 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Filters Settings: Use Volatility Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the volatility filter. Use Regime Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the trend detection filter. Use ADX Filter - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to use the ADX filter. Regime Threshold - This has a default value of -0.1, a minimum value of -10, a maximum value of 10, and a step of 0.1. It is used to control the Regime Detection filter for detecting Trending/Ranging markets. ADX Threshold - This has a default value of 20, a minimum value of 0, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the threshold for detecting Trending/Ranging markets. Kernel Regression Settings: Trade with Kernel - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to trade with the kernel. Show Kernel Estimate - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the kernel estimate. Lookback Window - This has a default value of 8 and a minimum value of 3. It is used to control the number of bars used for the estimation. Recommended range: 3-50 Relative Weighting - This has a default value of 8 and a step size of 0.25. It is used to control the relative weighting of time frames. Recommended range: 0.25-25 Start Regression at Bar - This has a default value of 25. It is used to control the bar index on which to start regression. Recommended range: 0-25 Display Settings: Show Bar Colors - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the bar colors. Show Bar Prediction Values - This has a default value of true. It controls whether to show the ML model's evaluation of each bar as an integer. Use ATR Offset - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to use the ATR offset instead of the bar prediction offset. Bar Prediction Offset - This has a default value of 0 and a minimum value of 0. It is used to control the offset of the bar predictions as a percentage from the bar high or close. Backtesting Settings: Show Backtest Results - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to display the win rate of the given configuration. █ WORKS CITED (1) R. Giusti and G. E. A. P. A. Batista, "An Empirical Comparison of Dissimilarity Measures for Time Series Classification," 2013 Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems, Oct. 2013, DOI: 10.1109/bracis.2013.22. (2) Y. Kerimbekov, H. Ş. Bilge, and H. H. Uğurlu, "The use of Lorentzian distance metric in classification problems," Pattern Recognition Letters, vol. 84, 170–176, Dec. 2016, DOI: 10.1016/j.patrec.2016.09.006. (3) A. Bagnall, A. Bostrom, J. Large, and J. Lines, "The Great Time Series Classification Bake Off: An Experimental Evaluation of Recently Proposed Algorithms." ResearchGate, Feb. 04, 2016. (4) H. Ş. Bilge, Yerzhan Kerimbekov, and Hasan Hüseyin Uğurlu, "A new classification method by using Lorentzian distance metric," ResearchGate, Sep. 02, 2015. (5) Y. Kerimbekov and H. Şakir Bilge, "Lorentzian Distance Classifier for Multiple Features," Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods, 2017, DOI: 10.5220/0006197004930501. (6) V. Surya Prasath et al., "Effects of Distance Measure Choice on KNN Classifier Performance - A Review." . █ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS @veryfid - For many invaluable insights, discussions, and advice that helped to shape this project. @capissimo - For open sourcing his interesting ideas regarding various KNN implementations in PineScript, several of which helped inspire my original undertaking of this project. @RikkiTavi - For many invaluable physics-related conversations and for his helping me develop a mechanism for visualizing various distance algorithms in 3D using JavaScript @jlaurel - For invaluable literature recommendations that helped me to understand the underlying subject matter of this project. @annutara - For help in beta-testing this indicator and for sharing many helpful ideas and insights early on in its development. @jasontaylor7 - For helping to beta-test this indicator and for many helpful conversations that helped to shape my backtesting workflow @meddymarkusvanhala - For helping to beta-test this indicator @dlbnext - For incredibly detailed backtesting testing of this indicator and for sharing numerous ideas on how the user experience could be improved.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
124
CVD - Cumulative Volume Delta (Chart)█   OVERVIEW This indicator displays cumulative ​volume delta (​CVD) as an on-chart oscillator. It uses intrabar analysis to obtain more precise ​volume delta information compared to methods that only use the chart's timeframe. The core concepts in this script come from our first ​ CVD indicator , which displays CVD​ values as plot candles in a separate indicator pane. In this script, CV​D values are scaled according to price ranges and represented on the main chart pane. █   CONCEPTS Bar polarity Bar polarity refers to the position of the close price relative to the open price. In other words, bar polarity is the direction of price change. Intrabars Intrabars are chart bars at a lower timeframe than the chart's. Each 1H chart bar of a 24x7 market will, for example, usually contain 60 bars at the lower timeframe of 1min, provided there was market activity during each minute of the hour. Mining information from intrabars can be useful in that it offers traders visibility on the activity inside a chart bar. Lower timeframes (LTFs) A lower timeframe is a timeframe that is smaller than the chart's timeframe. This script utilizes a LTF to analyze intrabars, or price changes within a chart bar. The lower the ​LTF, the more intrabars are analyzed, but the less chart bars can display information due to the limited number of intrabars that can be analyzed. Volume delta Volume delta is a measure that separates ​volume​ into "up" and "down" parts, then takes the difference to estimate the net demand for the asset. This approach gives traders a more detailed insight when analyzing volume​ and market sentiment. There are several methods for determining whether an asset's volume​ belongs in the "up" or "down" category. Some indicators, such as On Balance Volume​ and the Klinger Oscillator , use the change in price between bars to assign ​volume​ values to the appropriate category. Others, such as Chaikin Money Flow , make assumptions based on open, high, low, and close prices. The most accurate method involves using tick data to determine whether each transaction occurred at the bid or ask price and assigning the ​volume​ value to the appropriate category accordingly. However, this method requires a large amount of data on historical bars, which can limit the historical depth of charts and the number of symbols for which tick data is available. In the context where historical tick data is not yet available on TradingView, intrabar analysis is the most precise technique to calculate ​volume delta on historical bars on our charts. This indicator uses intrabar analysis to achieve a compromise between simplicity and accuracy in calculating ​volume delta on historical bars. Our Volume Profile indicators use it as well. Other ​volume delta indicators in our Community Scripts , such as the Realtime 5D Profile , use real-time chart updates to achieve more precise ​volume delta calculations. However, these indicators aren't suitable for analyzing historical bars since they only work for real-time analysis. This is the logic we use to assign intrabar ​volume to the "up" or "down" category:  • If the intrabar's open and close values are different, their relative position is used.  • If the intrabar's open and close values are the same, the difference between the intrabar's close and the previous intrabar's close is used.  • As a last resort, when there is no movement during an intrabar and it closes at the same price as the previous intrabar, the last known polarity is used. Once all intrabars comprising a chart bar are analyzed, we calculate the net difference between "up" and "down" intrabar volume​ to produce the volume​ delta for the chart bar. █   FEATURES CVD resets The "cumulative" part of the indicator's name stems from the fact that calculations accumulate during a period of time. By periodically resetting the volume​ delta accumulation, we can analyze the progression of ​volume delta across manageable chunks, which is often more useful than looking at ​volume delta accumulated from the beginning of a chart's history. You can configure the reset period using the "CVD Resets" input, which offers the following selections:  • None : Calculations do not reset.  • On a fixed higher timeframe : Calculations reset on the higher timeframe you select in the "Fixed higher timeframe" field.  • At a fixed time that you specify.  • At the beginning of the regular session .  • On trend changes : Calculations reset on the direction change of either the Aroon indicator, Parabolic SAR , or Supertrend .  • On a stepped higher timeframe : Calculations reset on a higher timeframe automatically stepped using the chart's timeframe and following these rules: Chart TF ​HTF < 1min 1H < 3H 1D <= 12H 1W < 1W 1M >= 1W 1Y Specifying intrabar precision Ten options are included in the script to control the number of intrabars used per chart bar for calculations. The greater the number of intrabars per chart bar, the fewer chart bars can be analyzed. The first five options allow users to specify the approximate amount of chart bars to be covered:  • Least Precise (Most chart bars) : Covers all chart bars by dividing the current timeframe by four.   This ensures the highest level of intrabar precision while achieving complete coverage for the dataset.  • Less Precise (Some chart bars) & More Precise (Less chart bars) : These options calculate a stepped ​LTF in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • Very precise (2min intrabars) : Uses the second highest quantity of intrabars possible with the 2min ​LTF.  • Most precise (1min intrabars) : Uses the maximum quantity of intrabars possible with the 1min ​LTF. The stepped lower timeframe for "Less Precise" and "More Precise" options is calculated from the current chart's timeframe as follows: Chart Timeframe Lower Timeframe Less Precise More Precise < 1hr 1min 1min < 1D 15min 1min < 1W ​2hr​ 30min > 1W 1D 60min The last five options allow users to specify an approximate fixed number of intrabars to analyze per chart bar. The available choices are 12, 24, 50, 100, and 250. The script will calculate the LTF​ which most closely approximates the specified number of intrabars per chart bar. Keep in mind that due to factors such as the length of a ticker's sessions and rounding of the LTF​, it is not always possible to produce the exact number specified. However, the script will do its best to get as close to the value as possible. As there is a limit to the number of intrabars that can be analyzed by a script, a tradeoff occurs between the number of intrabars analyzed per chart bar and the chart bars for which calculations are possible. Display This script displays raw or cumulative volume​ delta values on the chart as either line or histogram oscillator zones scaled according to the price chart, allowing traders to visualize volume​ activity on each bar or cumulatively over time. The indicator's background shows where CVD​ resets occur, demarcating the beginning of new zones. The vertical axis of each oscillator zone is scaled relative to the one with the highest price range, and the oscillator values are scaled relative to the highest volume​ delta. A vertical offset is applied to each oscillator zone so that the highest oscillator value aligns with the lowest price. This method ensures an accurate, intuitive visual comparison of volume​ activity within zones, as the scale is consistent across the chart, and oscillator values sit below prices. The vertical scale of oscillator zones can be adjusted using the "Zone Height" input in the script settings. This script displays labels at the highest and lowest oscillator values in each zone, which can be enabled using the "Hi/Lo Labels" input in the "Visuals" section of the script settings. Additionally, the oscillator's value on a chart bar is displayed as a tooltip when a user hovers over the bar, which can be enabled using the "Value Tooltips" input. Divergences occur when the polarity of ​volume delta does not match that of the chart bar. The script displays divergences as bar colors and background colors that can be enabled using the "Color bars on divergences" and "Color background on divergences" inputs. An information box in the lower-left corner of the indicator displays the HTF used for resets, the ​LTF used for intrabars, the average quantity of intrabars per chart bar, and the number of chart bars for which there is LTF data. This is enabled using the "Show information box" input in the "Visuals" section of the script settings. FOR Pine Script™ CODERS  • This script utilizes `ltf()` and `ltfStats()` from the lower_tf library.   The `ltf()` function determines the appropriate lower timeframe from the selected calculation mode and chart timeframe, and returns it in a format that can be used with request.security_lower_tf() .   The `ltfStats()` function, on the other hand, is used to compute and display statistical information about the lower timeframe in an information box.  • The script utilizes display.data_window and display.status_line to restrict the display of certain plots.   These new built-ins allow coders to fine-tune where a script’s plot values are displayed.  • The newly added session.isfirstbar_regular built-in allows for resetting the ​CVD segments at the start of the regular session.  • The VisibleChart library developed by our resident PineCoders team leverages the chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time variables to optimize the performance of this script.   These variables identify the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost visible bars on the chart, allowing the script to recalculate and draw objects only within the range of visible bars as the user scrolls.   This functionality also enables the scaling of the oscillator zones.   These variables are just a couple of the many new built-ins available in the chart.* namespace.   For more information, check out this blog post or look them up by typing "chart." in the Pine Script™ Reference Manual .  • Our ta library has undergone significant updates recently, including the incorporation of the `aroon()` indicator used as a method for resetting ​CVD segments within this script.   Revisit the library to see more of the newly added content! Look first. Then leap.
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Pine Script™ indicator
16
Hurst Diamond Notation PivotsThis is a fairly simple indicator for diamond notation of past hi/lo pivot points, a common method in Hurst analysis. The diamonds mark the troughs/peaks of each cycle. They are offset by their lookback and thus will not 'paint' until after they happen so anticipate accordingly. Practically, traders can use the average length of past pivot periods to forecast future pivot periods in time🔮. For example, if the average/dominant number of bars in an 80-bar pivot point period/cycle is 76, then a trader might forecast that the next pivot could occur 76-ish bars after the last confirmed pivot. The numbers/labels on the y-axis display the cycle length used for pivot detection. This indicator doesn't repaint, but it has a lot of lag; Please use it for forecasting instead of entry signals. This indicator scans for new pivots in the form of a rainbow line and circle; once the hi/lo has happened and the lookback has passed then the pivot will be plotted. The rainbow color per wavelength theme seems to be authentic to Hurst (or modern Hurst software) and has been included as a default.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
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Fair value bands (Dynamic risk levels, fair value metrics)— Overview Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations. By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options: Price source - Standard OHLC values - HL2 (High + low / 2) - OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4) - HLC3 (High + low + close / 3) - HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4) Smoothing - SMA - EMA - HMA - RMA - WMA - VWMA - Median Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed: Trend mode Direction based Cross based Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources. Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered): Threshold band Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether. Deviation bands Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands. Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered. — Fair value metrics Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot: Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find. Viewing metric calculations Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window: — Alerts Available alerts are the following: Individual - High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 ) - Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 ) - Low at threshold band in an uptrend - High at threshold band in a downtrend - New uptrend - New downtrend Grouped - New uptrend or downtrend - Deviation band cross (+1 or -1) - Deviation band cross (+2 or -2) - Deviation band cross (+3 or -3) — Practical guide Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend. Example #2 : Mean reversions When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better. Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
16
Harmonic Patterns Based Trend FollowerEarlier this week, published an idea on how harmonic patterns can be used for trend following. This script is an attempt to implement the same. 🎲 Process 🎯 Derive Zigzag and scan harmonic patterns for last 5 confirmed pivots 🎯 If a pattern is found, highest point of pattern will become the bullish zone and lower point of the pattern will become bearish zone. 🎯 Since it is trend following method, when price reaches bullish zone, then the trend is considered as bullish and when price reaches bearish zone, the trend is considered as bearish. 🎯 If price does not touch both regions, then trend remains unchanged. 🎯 Bullish and bearish zone will change as and when new patterns are formed. 🎲 Note Patterns are not created on latest pivot as last pivot will be unconfirmed and moving. Due to this, patterns appear after certain delay - patterns will not be real time. But, this is expected and does not impact the overall process. When new pattern formed When price breaks over the zones 🎲 Output 🎯 Patterns formed are drawn in blue coloured lines. Due to pine limitation of max 500 lines, older patterns automatically get deleted when new ones come. 🎯 Bullish Zone and Bearish Zone are plotted in green and red colours and the zone will change whenever new pattern comes along. 🎯 Bar colors are changed according to calculated trend. Trend value can be 1 or -1 based on the current trend. You can also find the value in data window. 🎯 For simplicity purpose, input option for selection of specific patterns are not provided and also pattern names are not displayed on the chart.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
32
[@btc_charlie] Trader XO Macro Trend ScannerWhat is this script? This script has two main functions focusing on EMAs (Exponential Moving Average) and Stochastic RSI. EMAs EMAs are typically used to give a view of bullish / bearish momentum. When the shorter EMA (calculated off more recent price action) crosses, or is above, the slower moving EMA (calculated off a longer period of price action), it suggests that the market is in an uptrend. This can be an indication to either go long on said asset, or that it is more preferable to take long setups over short setups. Invalidation on long setups is usually found via price action (e.g. previous lows) or simply waiting for an EMA cross in the opposite direction (i.e. shorter EMA crosses under longer term EMA). This is not a perfect system for trade entry or exit, but it does give a good indication of market trends. The settings for the EMAs can be changed based on user inputs, and by default the candles are coloured based on the crosses to make it more visual. The default settings are based on “Trader XO’s” settings who is an exceptional swing trader. RSI Stochastic RSI is a separate indicator that has been added to this script. RSI measures Relative Strength (RSI = Relative Strength Index). When RSI is <20 it is considered oversold, and when >80 it is overbought. These conditions suggests that momentum is very strong in the direction of the trend. If there is a divergence between the price (e.g. price is creating higher highs, and stoch RSI is creating lower highs) it suggests the strength of the trend is weakening. Whilst this script does not highlight divergences, what it does highlight is when the shorter term RSI (K) crosses over D (the average of last 3 periods). This can give an indication that the trend is losing strength. Combination The EMAs indicate when trend shifts (bullish or bearish). The RSI indicates when the trend is losing momentum. The combination of the two can be used to suggest when to prefer a directional bias, and subsequently shift in anticipation of a trend reversal. Note that no signal is 100% accurate and an interpretation of market conditions and price action will need to be overlayed to Why is it different to others? I have not found other scripts that are available in this way visually including alerts when Stoch RSI crosses over/under the extremes; or the mid points. Whilst these indicators are default, the combination of them and how they are presented is not and makes use of the TradingView colouring functionalities. What are the features? Customise the variables (averages) used in the script. Display as one EMA or two EMAs (the crossing ones). Alerts on EMA crosses. Alerts on Stoch RSI crosses - slow/fast, upper, lower areas. - Currently set on the chart to show alerts when Stoch RSI is above 80, then falls below 80 (and colours it red). Customisable colours. What are the best conditions for this? It is designed for high timeframe charts and analysis in crypto, since crypto tends to trend. It can however be used for lower timeframes. Disclaimer/Notes: I have noticed several videos appearing suggesting that this is a "100% win rate indicator" . NO indicator has 100% win rate. An indicator is an *indicator* that is all. Please use responsibly and let me know if there are any mods or updates you would like to see.
Pine Script™ indicator
6
True Trend Average BandsThis is the indicator I am most proud of. After reading Glenn Neely's book "Mastering Eliott Waves" / "Neowave" and chatting with @timwest who got acknowledged by Neely, we came up with the idea of an moving average which does calculate the real average price since a trend started. Addionally I adapted a method from Neely Neowave and Tim Wests TimeAtMode to not force a timeframe on a chart but instead let the charts data decide which timeframe to use, to then calculate the real average price since the trend started. It took me a while to get this right and coded, so take a moment and dive deeper and you might learn something new. We assume that the price is in multiple trends on multiple timeframes, this is caused by short term traders, long term traders and investors who trade on different timeframes. To find out in which timeframe the important trends are, we have to look out for significant lows and highs. Then we change the timeframe in the chart to a value so that we have 10 to 20 bars since the significant low/high. While new bars are printed, and we reach more than 20 bars, we have to switch to a higher timeframe so we have 10 to 20 bars again. In the chart you see two significant trends: a downtrend on the 3 week timeframe and an uptrend from the 2 month timeframe. Based on the logic I have described, these are the two important timeframes to watch right now for the spx (there is another uptrend in the yearly chart, which is not shown here). Now that we understand how to find the important timeframes, let's look what the magic in this script is that tells us the real average price since a trend started. I developed a new type of moving average, which includes only the prices since a trend started. The difference to the regular sma is that it will not include prices which happened before the significant low or high happened. For example, if a top happened in a market 10 days ago, the regular sma20 would be calculated by 10 bars which happened before the top and 10 bars which happened after the top. If we want to know the average price of the last 10 bars we manually have to change the ma20 to the ma10 which is annoying manual work, additionally even if we use the ma10 in this case, and we look at yesterday's bar the ma10 will include 9 bars from after the top and one bar before the top, so the ma10 would only show the real average price for the current bar which is not what we want. To come up with a solution to this problem, the True Trend Average searches for the lowest/highest bar in a given period (20 bars). Then starts to calculate the average value since the low/high. For example: if the price reaches a new 20 day high and then trades below it, the day of the high will be the sma1, the day after it's the sma2, ... up to the maximum look back length. This way, we always know what the average price would have been if someone sold/bought a little bit every bar of his investment since the high/low. Why is this even important? Let's assume we missed selling the top or buying the low, and think it would have been at least better to buy/sell a little bit since the new trend started. Once the price reaches the true trend average again, we can buy/sell, and it would be as good as selling/buying a little bit every day. We find prices to buy the dip and sell the bounce, which are as good as scaling in/out. There is a lot more we can learn from these price levels but I think it is better to let you figure out yourself what you can learn from the information given by this indicator. Think about how market participants who accumulate or distribute feel when prices are above or below certain levels. Now that we understand this new type of moving average, let's look into the lines we see in the chart: The upper red band line shows the true trend average high price since the last significant top within 20 bars. The lower red band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant top within 20 bars. The lower green band line shows the true trend average low price since the last significant low within 20 bars. The upper green band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant low within 20 bars. The centerline is the average between the upper red band and the lower green band. The teal lines show 1 standard deviation from the outer bands. Before today only a few people had access to this indicator, now that it is public and open source, I am curious if you will find it useful and what you will do with it. Please share your findings. /edit: The chart only shows the 3week timeframe so here are the other two trends from the 2month and 1year timeframe
Pine Script™ indicator
12
Multiple Divergences (UDTs - objects) - Educational█   OVERVIEW This script highlights the usage of User-defined Types (UDTs) and objects , and bullish /bearish  divergences. Pivotpoints are used to find divergences, the result of this script will be different against other public multiple divergences scripts. FOR Pine Script™ CODERS Besides the information found in CONCEPTS , the comments in the script will, hopefully ), guide you through my thought process. █   CONCEPTS The main principle of this script are bullish /bearish  divergences, this with 3 different oscillators ( RSI , CCI , MFI ) If you want to know more about divergences, have a look at some Education and Research idea's . On every bar, an object HLs is made, containing bar_index , high , low , and 2 bool variables ( isPh , isPl ). On every bar, an object Osc is made, containing bar_index , o (oscillator value), and 2 bool variables ( isPh , isPl ). If a pivothigh (ph ) is found, isPh will be true on that bar, false otherwise. If a pivotlow (pl) is found, isPl will be true on that bar, false otherwise. These objects are added to an array, with limited size. If a ph is found, the script draws a testline from that ph to every previous ph , found in the array. Then every high in between these 2 points are checked if they don't pierce the testline . If the testline isn't broken, the Reg_Div_Piv() function will give 4 values, 1 check (not pierced) variable and the 4 points of the line. The testline is deleted. Once a positive check is found, the script will perform the same, but now with the Osc objects. The script will ONLY compare Osc pivots which are maximum 1 bar away from the high/low pivot . If everything is confirmed, a line is drawn, visible on the chart. █   REMARKS A label will be visible with a number, this is the amount of divergences found with the according oscillator . EXAMPLE Div with RSI and CCI -> 2 Div with MFI alone -> 1 Div with RSI and CCI and MFI -> 3 ... Divergences should only be used when confirmed, this is after bar close . As an aid, lines that are not confirmed will be dotted , if confirmed, they will be solid . The divergence check start when a ph/pl is found, after which oscillator pivot are checked. Optionally the same can be done, when a oscillator pivot is found and then check the ph/pl , this should give more results, although it can make the script slower. █   SETTINGS Left - amount of bars at the left which needs to be lower/higher Right - amount of bars at the right which needs to be lower/higher Max values - maximum values in array of objects 3 oscillator settings with      • ON/OFF      • Length      • color bullish  divergence      • color bearish  divergence Have FUN !
Pine Script™ indicator
16
NET BSP NET BSP derived from Buying & Selling Pressure which is a volatility indicator that monitors average metrics of green and red candles separately. We could navigate more confidently through market with projected market balance. BSP allowed us to track and analyze the ongoing performance of bullish and bearish impulsive waves and their corrections. Due to unintuitive way of measuring decline with SP going up, I decided to remake it into more intuitive version with better precision. When we encounter the fall it's better to have declining values of tool to be able to cover it visually with ease. One of the solutions was to create a sense of balance of Buying Pressure against Selling Pressure. Since we are oriented by growth, it'd be more logical to summarize the market balance with BP - SP Comparison: When Buying and Selling Pressure are equal, NET BSP would be at 0. NETBSP > 0 and NETBSP > NETBSP = 🟢 NETBSP > 0 and NETBSP < NETBSP = 🟡 NETBSP < 0 and NETBSP < NETBSP = 🔴 NETBSP < 0 and NETBSP > NETBSP = 🟡 Hence, we get visualized stages of uptrends and downtrends which allows to evaluate chances and estimations of upcoming counter-waves. Also, it is worth to note that output clearly shows how one wave is derived from another in terms of sizing. Feel free to adjust NET BSP arguments to adapt sensitivity to the timeframe you're working on.
Pine Script™ indicator
20

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Educational ideas

The Ultimate Beginner’s Guide To Trend TradingMany traders utilize forex trend trading specifically to increase their profits from currency exchange. The possibility to take a big number of pip moves due to a strong, directional price movement, a high probability of profit, and exceptional signal accuracy are only a few of the benefits of trend trading. These are the factors that make trend trading possible for traders. In order to maximize price movement and minimize mistakes—which, no matter how hard one tries, will still happen occasionally—have let's a look at the fundamental algorithm of trend trading. What is a Trend? A trend involves a tendency for price to rise or fall over some time. There are two types of trends - bullish and bearish. In a bullish trend, the price makes high bases and higher tops. Thus, the trend line during a bullish trend acts as support. Bearish trends are the opposite of bullish trends. In this case, creates lower highs and lower lows on the chart. In this case, the bearish trend line can be drawn through the highs. There are various trend indicators, but one of the easiest and most effective ways to analyze trends is to use trend lines. A trend line is a diagonal line on a chart that connects several peaks or bases on the chart. The main function of a trend line is to act as support or resistance for price movement. We see a bearish trend line that acts as a resistance line when the price is moving down. The arrows point to places where the price is testing the trend line as resistance. On the seventh price interaction with the bear trend, we get a bullish breakout. Price closes above the bearish trend line, implying that the trend is broken out and price direction is likely to change. In a trending market, two types of systematic price movements are important for understanding the trend. These two types of price movements are called momentum and corrections. A trend momentum is a price movement that occurs after interacting with a trend line and after the price bounces in the direction of the trend. Trend momentum leads to large price movements over a relatively shorter period. Corrective price movements follow the momentum and return the price to the trend. A correction on the chart is not as attractive to trade. Traders without sufficient trading experience should stay out of the market when the price is in a correction phase. The reason for this is that corrections are relatively smaller and often last longer than momentum. As you can see, price registers higher highs and higher lows, indicating that there is a bullish trend on the chart. Note that trend momentum leads to relatively large price movements in the direction of the trend. The third correction on the chart has about the same duration as the last momentum and later leads to a trend breakout. How Do You Find Trends? We already know that an uptrend consists of ascending highs and lows. And a downtrend consists of descending highs and lows. But what if you see a chart that looks like this? Is it the end of a downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend? Or is the price in a trading range? There is a problem in determining trends if you use higher highs and lows - this approach will always be subjective. So use a 200-period Moving Average (MA) to determine exactly what the trend is in the market right now. Depending on the time frame, the market can move in different trends. Downtrend on a Daily chart. UPtrend on a Daily chart. It would be a mistake to try to trade trends in different time frames. Instead, focus only on the main time frame and trade only in it. However, your trend trading can improve if you analyze charts of different time frames. What types of trends are there? Most traders believe that a trend consists of higher highs and lows. But that's not enough, because trends come in all kinds of forms. Some are better to trade with breakout strategies and some are better to enter only on pullbacks. There are three types of trending markets, which we will get to know. Strong Trends Buyers control the price and it is moving steadily upwards, there is only a little pressure from the sellers. This type of trend will have small pullbacks - around the 20MA level. In some cases, this type of trend will be so strong that it will move up without any pullbacks. It will not be easy to enter this type of trend because corrections will be too weak or there will not be any. So, the best thing would be to try to catch this type of trend at the beginning of its movement and enter it on its breakdown. If the trend has already gained strength, it is possible to switch to a smaller time frame and look for entry points on the pullback there. Regular Trends Buyers are still in control of the price, but sellers are more active. This is due to someone locking in their profits or entering against the trend. This type of trend will have pullbacks to the 50 MA level. Regular trends can also be entered on a level breakout, but you must be prepared psychologically to withstand a possible strong pullback to the broken level. You can always enter this type of trend later on its pullback to 50 MA. Weak Trends Buyers and sellers are fighting for control, with the buyers slowly starting to gain the upper hand. Price will move in large pullbacks beyond the 50 MA. Soon the previous trend may change direction. Therefore, the best strategy is to enter the market at support and resistance levels. Where Should I Place a Stop Loss in Trend Trading? There are three logical places to place Stop Loss in trend trading: behind the Moving Averages, behind the previous pullback, and the dynamic trend lines. Moving Averages In a market with a strong trend, the price tends not to go over 20 MA. Thus, you should put your Stop Loss below 20MA. If the trend is calmer and does not go behind the 50 MA, place your Stop behind the 50 MA line. Previous pullback You can always place a Stop Loss below the boundary of the previous pullback of the trend. Trend lines To avoid false triggering of your Stops, you can use the technique of placing a Stop Loss at a distance of one or two ATRs from the Moving Averages, the previous pullback, or the trend lines. Then your potential losses can increase, but your Stops will be well protected from accidental price spikes. Peculiarities of Trend Trading Before you start trend trading, you must first recognize a potential trend. Experienced traders will tell you that "The trend is your friend!" because the profits from a trending instrument are much higher and such trades can involve less risk. Let's discuss a few trading techniques for potential trends on the chart. As we already know, if the highs and lows of price are rising, we are in a bullish trend. If the highs and lows are decreasing, we are in a bearish trend. In all other cases, we have no trend conditions. Every two points on the chart can be connected by a straight line. However, if the third point is on the same line, then we have a trend. Thus, trend confirmation usually comes after price tests the trend at the third touch and bounces off of it. When you see the bounce, you can enter the market trying to catch the new trend. Different Approaches to Trend Trading Trend trading can be divided into two approaches: Systematic trading; Discretionary trading. Systematic trading Systematic trading clearly defines all the rules you must follow in your trading: entry point, profit taking place, risk management, and trade management. Most of these actions can be automated by building automated models that are based on technical analysis with limited intervention by the trader. This approach is widely used by large hedge funds. The trader can only determine the level of risk and markets to be traded. Discretionary Trading Discretionary trading has less clear-cut rules that a trader must follow. This approach requires constant participation in trades and is widely used by individual traders. Although discretionary trading is more subjective, it is still based on a trading plan. Trend Trading Strategy A trading strategy for trend trading is only 1/3 of the component of your success. Without proper risk management and discipline, even the best trading strategy will not help you trade profitably. To develop a trend trading strategy for yourself, you will have to answer the following questions: What time frame will I use? What will be my risk level for each trade? What markets will I trade? Where will be my entry point? Where will I exit if the price goes against my position? Where will I take my profits if the price goes my way? In practice, it would look something like this: If the price is above the 200 Moving Average, the trend is uptrending. In an uptrend, we expect two price touches in the area between the Moving Averages with periods of 20 and 50. We open a long trade on the third test. Stop Loss will be placed at a distance of 2 ATR from our entry point. If the price goes in your favor, the trade will be closed when the price closes outside the 50 MA. Alternative scenario: If the 50 EMA is above the 100 EMA, look for an opportunity to open a long position. We wait until the price closes above the 50-day high. If the price closes above the 50-day high, we open a trade on the next candle. Stop Loss is placed at a distance of 3 ATR from the last price maximum. Never move Stop Loss against your position. Trade as many markets with low correlation as possible. Risk no more than 1% of your capital on any single trade. Trading Pullbacks: How to Enter the Market with the Trend? A pullback is a short-term price movement against a trend. What are the advantages and disadvantages of trading on a pullback? A pullback gives us a good entry point with a good risk/reward ratio. However, we can miss a strong trend because sometimes trends move for a long time without a pullback. We also trade against the current price momentum. Since most trading instruments stay within range boundaries or consolidation phases most of the time and market trends are only seen about 20-30 percent of the time, finding a settled trend and a good pullback can be a challenge. As a trader who trades on pullbacks, you have to act like a sniper. You have to wait, then wait some more, sometimes for hours, if not days, before you enter the market. You need to find the entry point at which the price is likely to resume its movement in the prevailing trend. Here are the three basic steps you need to take to successfully trade pullbacks with the trend: Identify an existing trend. Identify potential reversal areas or market conditions where the price may resume its trending movement. Find a high-quality trading signal to enter the market that involves a high risk/reward ratio. Pullbacks and Trend Trading We have already mentioned the wise axiom "the trend is your friend." However, professional traders also know that the trend is your friend "until it ends." Most of the time, financial markets remain in equilibrium, where major market participants have access to all the major news events and information. As a result, the price fluctuates slightly during the day, but in the absence of any new information, it usually does not make a particularly strong directional move. However, after the release of important news, if the actual data diverges from the market consensus, we may see sharp price movements because this is where the market tries to interpret the new information to find a new equilibrium. Bulls and bears sometimes have unique interpretations of news data, and they are invested in their interpretations. When most market participants or even a few large institutional players think the price should rise or fall, this kind of supply and demand imbalance can cause prices to spike or fall. You can see how pullbacks approach the previous consolidation zone and serve as price reversal points on the chart. Pullbacks often test previous support and resistance levels. Since traders know that these levels previously acted as anchor points, a large number of pending orders are accumulated around these price levels. As a result, when the pullback reaches these price levels, and if there have been enough orders in the direction of the trend, the market resumes its movement. Otherwise, the support or resistance levels are violated and a trend reversal may occur in the market. While it may be relatively easy to identify a trend, measuring the likelihood of a trend continuing after a pullback, is a bit more difficult. Nevertheless, it is quite possible if you apply the right technical analysis tools and have a comprehensive strategy for trading on pullbacks. For most new traders, it is best to trade on pullbacks rather than looking for countertrend opportunities. What is a Pullback? It is impossible to predict 100% when a pullback will end. But it has to be based on something. It can't just hang in the air. It may be: -A previous resistance level becomes support. -Resistance becomes support. -Support that became resistance. -Support becomes resistance. -Dynamic trend lines. -The pullback to the dynamic trend lines. -Confirmation for entry into the trade we get when the candle closes in the direction of the current trend. This increases the positive probability of our trade. However, sometimes this can cause you to miss a good trend movement. So there is no definite answer here: to wait for a confirming candle or not. If the price is above the 200 EMA then the trend is bullish. Wait for the price to return to its support area. Then expect a bullish candle in the direction of the trend. Place a Stop Loss below the low of a reversal candle. Take Profit at the nearest level. The best entry points will be called structural - these are places where several conditions for entering the trade will coincide. The price has approached the resistance level, which previously acted as support. The price touches dynamic trend lines. A bearish pin bar appears. The price touches a strong support level. The 200 EMA also passes at this point. An absorption pattern appears. The more structural factors combine in one place on the chart, the greater the probability of a profitable trade. However, the number of such sets with all structural factors will be quite small. Therefore, it will be best to find a balance and enter the market with 2 to 4 structural factors. Trend Trading Strategy on Pullbacks The first step is to recognize the trend. If the price is making higher highs and higher lows, we are seeing an uptrend. On the other hand, if the price makes lower highs and lower lows, we are seeing a downtrend. You can also use the two Moving Averages and confirm the trend when there is a crossover between them, and use them to confirm a pullback. The instrument is in an uptrend. By adding two Moving Averages, the 13-period EMA and the 21-period EMA, we can get additional confirmation. When the fast EMA crossed the slow EMA, we could see a pullback. Remember, however, that the Moving Average crossover acts as a lagging indicator. By the time it generates a signal, the market may have moved slightly in the direction of the prevailing trend. As a result, the risk/reward ratio in your trade may also increase. Consequently, it would be much better if you tried to identify a potential reversal area during a pullback and place your trades using more efficient methods to enter the market based on price action signals. One of the main principles of technical analysis is that old resistance turns into new support and old support turns into new resistance. Using this principle, you can quickly determine where the market may reverse during a pullback. Old support and resistance levels provide a great place to place your limit orders on the side of the prevailing trend. You can also use another time-tested entry method. In this case, we are referring to the use of major Fibonacci retracement levels. After the first uptrend, the price pulled back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level and then resumed the uptrend. After the second uptrend was completed, the price pulled back to the Fibonacci 38.2% Fibonacci recovery level, after which the trend resumed. Major Fibonacci levels act as hidden support and resistance zones in the market. Once you have learned how to successfully identify the trend, the pullback, and the potential area where the pullback may end, you can look for an entry point into the market. A simple pin bar or outside a bar near previous support or resistance, or near a Moving Average, can be an excellent confirmation that a pullback is ending and the trend is about to resume. When the Moving Average and the downtrend line intersect, it confirms that the market is in a downtrend. Once the downtrend was confirmed, you could tell that the 1.5750 level was acting as significant resistance as the price bounced back from that level several times. However, instead of blindly entering the market near the reversal, we waited for a bearish pin bar, which confirmed the end of the pullback. Trend Trading Strategy with MACD, Trend Line, and Volume Indicator The MACD indicator consists of two Moving Averages, which interact with each other above and below the 0 levels. When the faster line overcomes the slower line in a bearish direction, being above 0, we expect the price to start trending in a bearish direction. When the faster line overcomes the slower line in the bullish direction, being below 0, we expect the price to start trending up in the bullish direction. The MACD also has a histogram. This histogram shows the exact difference between the fast line and the slow line. If the histogram is positive, the faster line is above the slower line, the long signal. If the histogram is negative, the faster line is below the slower line, the short signal. Divergence is also good for determining the divergence between the price and the indicator. If the price increases and the MACD decreases, we have a bearish divergence, which indicates that the trend is likely to reverse. The same is true in the opposite direction for a bullish divergence pattern. If the price is declining and the MACD is increasing, we have a bullish divergence. One way to trade trends is to combine the trend lines, MACD, and volume indicator. We can try to match signals from the MACD indicator and a potential emerging trend line and perform a volume analysis. Imagine that you see an upward price movement on the chart. At the same time, the MACD is signaling a bullish crossover below 0, which confirms that the price is rising. In this case, we can expect a continuation until we see the opposite signal from the MACD. A Stop Loss should be placed below the recent swing low. The same technique works for bearish trends. If the price starts to consider lower tops and lower bases, we use a bearish MACD cross above 0 to open a short position. The chart begins with a bullish MACD crossover. Note that during the crossover and continuation thereafter, the price is in a range. However, during the horizontal movement, trading volumes are constantly increasing. Suddenly the price creates a higher top, breaking the level of the previous top. This indicates a possible rise in price, and after a short correction, there is an opportunity to open a long position. The price continues to rise with two momentum movements and their corresponding corrections. The MACD indicator is now in its upper area, indicating that we may see the end of this bullish trend shortly. Nevertheless, the position should be held until the MACD lines show a bearish crossover as indicated in the trading strategy. Tips for Trend Trading In order not to be deceived, do not use time frames lower than H1. Most often in M1, M15, etc. we just see market noise, imitating a storm of market activity, and changing many times a day. Always check the trend you have detected in a higher time frame (for example, if you see a bullish trend on H1 - switch to D1 and check your conclusions). If the trends coincide - good, this is a signal for entry, if they diverge - do not enter the market. Professionals use trends that are evident at least on the semi-annual chart, even better - the annual chart (it is visible on W1). The rule is simple: a true, time-tested trend does not change quickly and focusing on false trends and breakouts - is counterproductive and unprofitable. Having chosen a trend - be faithful to it, to a reasonable limit. Do not react to the usual market volatility, "chattering", constantly provoking you to the wrong actions. Allow profits to grow. For example, all of 2017 EUR/USD was in a bullish trend, and traders who were able to use this (simple, in general) understanding - made good profits. If you still went against the trend - you need to know how to "flip". If the price goes more than 200 pips against your open positions - can't be helped, there is no arguing with the market, open in the right direction, take a loss (liquidate a losing position) and earn more than you lost. Summary When trend trading, be sure to include economic news in your arsenal. Using only technical analysis will not give a complete picture of what is happening on the market. Use trend trading and you will see that forex really brings profit. And of course to be successful with trend trading you need practice and remember that profitability depends very much on the broker you choose!
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👩🏻7 Stages to Financial Freedom and How You Can Get There👩🏻 👩🏻‍🎓Today we will discuss the stages you go through to reach freedom and how you can achieve it with awesome thinking models. The journey to financial freedom includes seven stages. 👩🏻‍💼1. Clarity This is the stage where you are clear about your current financial position and where you want to be. 👩🏻‍💻2. Self-sufficiency This is the stage where you can bear all your expenses by yourself. You are not dependent on anyone for your survival. This also means you earn enough to sustain your expenses. 💁🏻‍♀️3. Breathing room This is the stage where you have saved enough to sustain yourself for a couple of months, even if you lose your source of income right now. 🙋‍♀️4. Stability This is the stage where you have paid off all your debts and you also have a saving to sustain you for at least 6 months in advance. 🌹5. Flexibility This is the stage where you have saved enough money to sustain yourself for two years in advance. 🌷6. Financial independence This is the stage where your money earns more for you. It’s when you have enough investments and savings that the return you get is enough to sustain your expenses without working. At this point, you work on something because it’s your hobby, and not to earn money. ☀️7. Abundant wealth This is the stage where you have accumulated so much money that you would not be able to spend all in your lifetime. 🍃But how do you progress through these stages and achieve financial freedom? Here are some awesome thinking models you can use to head towards financial freedom. 1. Time is more valuable than money. 2. Compounding can help you achieve it earlier 3. Make money with a side business 4. Learn to sell stuff 🍀As it should be your ultimate financial goal, it is never enough to talk about achieving financial freedom. I wish you luck, dear traders.🍀 Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
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Has the market bottomed?Hey Everyone, Hope you’re having or.. well had I guess pretty much, depending on where you are located I suppose, a great weekend! So next week, is a pivotal week. You may be wondering why. And that is a good question. Its not because there are any fundamental catalyst. Its not because there are major news releases. Its actually very simple really. Next week, the probability indicates we see some selling. So, a pullback week. The pivotal moment and interesting moment becomes, will this selling morphe into something else? I.e. capitulation and resumption of bear market status? Or will it hold support and serve just as that, pullback. In my monthly perspective, I postulated a tentative thesis that the market is under an assumption that it has officially bottomed. If you have followed me for some time, I have talked briefly about really ascertaining an ‘official’ market bottom. It differs by opinion, but the rule of thumb for me based on historic bear markets/corrections is 6 months of sustained buying/uptrending with healthy pullback in between that doesn’t make a new low is persuasivet to classify us in a bull run. Ten (10) months without making a new low is pretty much definitive. Statistically speaking (my own statistics, not citing this from any source, this is stuff I have run myself), if a market fails to make a new low after 10 months, its safe to assume correction/bear market is over. Our last low was in October. So we are coming up on 4 months. But of course, 6 to 10 months is pretty delayed. So how can we get a better idea in less time? Well, there are other less reliable means, which I personally utilize. You will recognize this and know this from my discussions on time series. Time series takes a linear regression approach on a broader scale and attempts to map out a trajectory and normal deviation over time. If the market maintains this trajectory within the expected deviation and fails to break out of it, then we can assume a bull market has resumed. Key word being assumed because again, the most reliable way is to wait the full10 month period. How we do this is checking the growth relationship since the previous low. I have displayed it her using Tradingview’s regression tool for visual representation: And on SPX: But I essentially do that in SAS to ascertain the official strength and draw mathematical projections from it. Doing so says that SPY has indeed formulated a fairly admirable uptrend with a pearson of just over 0.500. It is just over 0.6 on the 1 hour time frame for both SPX and SPY (you can also see in the charts above using Tradingviews Regression tool). Using this relationship, we can actually come out with a calculation of what SPY/SPX would do to invalidate this “bottom”. And what is that? SPY would need to break and hold below 391 or around 3900 on SPX. If this happens, then the bull market thesis is drawn into question. If SPY maintains above 391 for the duration of the month and reaches at least 1 or 2 higher highs, we have tentatively solidified a bull market thesis. Again, its not as definitive as waiting 10 months. But, its pretty persuasive. But the reality is, I honestly am not sure that we bottomed because I expect the feds to announce some horrible, market crushing news that will cause a massive selling event. This is just based on the current economic condition. But its also possible this doesn’t happen. Perhaps we really do avoid further economic catastrophe. Its hard to really say, but as part of my thesis in my monthly post, I postulate that it will likely take a major negative catalyst to derail the market back to bear market status. The reason being, SPY has already carved out a fairly healthy uptrend and is showing a lot of strength at this point. So we will need to really watch how things unfold around us. But that said, this week will be one tell-tale indication of whether the market truly ‘thinks’ it has bottomed. If we have healthy pullback that doesn’t supersede projections and display massive capitulation, then we can really start to take the bull market thesis more serious, at least tentatively. If we over do it, exceed low ranges and see massive panic selling, then we will know that the bear market is still very much alive and well. I will disclose, I have no bias really. I am cautious because of fundamentals, but in practice, I am treating the PA as a bull market. This means, I am not overstaying my shorts. I am focusing more on long entries intra-day and I am position sizing down on my short day trade scalps and short swings and position sizing up on my long day trade scalps and swings. This is my personal approach right now. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s a duck. So I am going to live by that superficially for now. Safe trades everyone!
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The Five-Step Process For Resolving Any Trading Problem ▶️ There are five steps you can take to fix problems with your trading. First, you need to understand what caused the problem. Second, you need to find a solution. Third, you need to put the solution into action. Fourth, you need to monitor and check the results. Fifth, you need to repeat the process if necessary. 1. Realizing 2. Understanding 3. Embrace 4. Action 5. Consistency 1️⃣ Realizing a trading issue before attempting to solve it is the first step. However, being aware can just mean being able to identify the initial issues with your trading, such as when you are aware that you are trading without using effective risk management. You have the groundwork to build on with this awareness of the issue, so you can proceed to the next phase. 2️⃣ Understanding why you have the problem is the next step after becoming aware of it. Examining it deeply to determine its underlying causes and the reasons behind your behavior. As previously stated, this can be the result of a deep-seated conviction that you don't want to make mistakes or be incorrect. How did you come up with this notion? Perhaps from family; perhaps they reprimanded you for making mistakes? Maybe it dates back to your time in school? Etc. All of this will depend on the trader personally and require some thought and reflection. 3️⃣ The next phase in the process is to embrace them when you have identified their roots and why they occur. In other words, you should acknowledge that these opinions, flaws, or whatever you choose to call them, are a part of you. You can't necessarily get rid of them, but with your improved knowledge and comprehension of them, you will be able to drain their energy. However, once you've accepted them and come to terms with them, you may start taking steps to control them. It results in the following move. 4️⃣ Once the previous steps are finished, you can go on and start putting concrete measures in place to stop them from sabotaging you. You must identify your triggers and when they occur in order to put corrective measures into place. You'll need to learn what triggers your sabotaging behavior and when they happen, and then create a plan to address them. This is where writing can be very helpful, as it will help you track your progress. 5️⃣ Consistency is the process's last phase overall. You must continually monitor your progress and assess if you are following through. You can maintain control by keeping a journal, creating goals, and reviewing frequently. ✔️ Describing the 5 Step Process: 1. Do I know the nature of the issue? 2. Do I understand the root of my problem? 3. Do I admit that I have this issue? 4. Develop a viable plan to stop them. 5. Analyse daily, weekly, and monthly to ensure that I am sticking to my strategy.
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The Three Black Crows PatternThe Three Black Crows or as otherwise known Three Soldiers are a formation of price continuation showing how the bears are taking control over the bulls to reverse the trend as we can see here. Price comes down buyers try to push it back up only to be reversed by sellers overpowering them so it falls back down the buyers try again but realise the bear is the almighty and with that last attempt they withdraw from the market causing a big sell off with a strong downward movement when just the bears remain key points: - last attempt of the bulls - price goes up and bears push price down every time - bears in control after a long uptrend shows prelude to sell
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Pre Market Levels are CRITICAL in Day Trading 10X Gains For MeCME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:TSLA I wanted to share a basic strategy I've been using that has helped me increase my profitability almost 10X Most people don't know that when the regular trading hours (RTH) markets are closed, the futures markets are running Generally overnight action during the pre market will set a clear high and a clear low. Those key pivots are hidden support and resistance that you WILL NOT see on the normal chart. Strategy 1 - Draw the Pre Market High/Low 2 - Use the Fibonacci tool in the direction of the overnight action either Bullish or Bearish 3 - Use the 0.618 Level as the KEY Algo level where you BUY THE DIP or SELL THE RIP 4 - Rinse and repeat - Always have a stop loss at the last major pivot and scale out profits over 25% Here is a more complete video guide from a trade I took last week: www.youtube.com
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My Biggest New Trader Mistakes & Lessons LearnedI thought I'd share my experience with other New Traders (I'm still 'new', 2yrs in). I made all the classic mistakes and plenty more, my learning is only just beginning. Hopefully this educational post helps others new to trading. Use a Stop Loss So many times I didn't use a Stop Loss. One of the main reasons was I kept getting Stopped Out and then the price reversed, it made me paranoid. Also when the day changes at the start of the Asia session, or over the weekend with the gaps on market open, I thought I was better not having one. I've Learned: If you don't use a Stop Loss it's psychologically hard to get out of a losing trade and you can easily blow your account. I think it's OK to move the stops temporarily before the Asian open, but ideally the trade would only be left open if a) it's well in profit and b) the move looks likely to continue. Don't move your SL & TP I kept moving both of these stops, I either couldn't face the actual loss when a trade went bad (it seemed less real on paper and there was always 'the chance' it would come back in my favour) or I got greedy when the trade went in my favour and then before I knew it, it reversed and my profit was gone. I've Learned: Moving Stops and Targets risks profitable trades; it's psychologically damaging as it suggests lack of planning and strategy, this is gambling. On the other hand, having a plan and seeing it playout, however big or small is hugely satisfying and is the best confidence builder. Get In and Out I kept looking for the really big moves, and I had a few, but only a few. I believe the longer you're in a trade, the riskier it is due to the many factors that can affect price - Institutions, Fundamentals, Global Events, there are so many things that can turn a good strategy bad, and I lost money. I've Learned: There are so many trading pairs, so many options, there'll always be another trade. Staying in a trade for too long is leaving money on the table, when it could be in your account, getting out too early is annoying, but having profit on the trade is much more important. Leaving trades over a weekend I've left both winning and losing trades over a weekend, and many times previously winning trades went against me, and losing ones got worse. Price can be unpredictable due to fundamental changes over a weekend. I've Learned: On a Friday, unless 80% happy that your trade will continue in the right direction over the weekend, close it and review again after market open (you may lose a few but you will have banked profits or minimised losses in many cases). Keep Fundamentals in mind I follow some traders who don't seem to care about Fundamentals, but in that time I've seen many of their signals go bad because of big news. I think, that they think, that if the news is in their favour they reach target quicker. If it's not, they reach target slower, as the market has already decided future price regardless. I've seen fundamentals shape both shorter and longer term trends, they can easily cause reversals and commonly they cause spikes in the opposite direction from what you'd expect, before then moving as you'd expect, but this can be too late. I've Learned: Each pair / trade is different, however I've learned to take a pragmatic approach, often getting out of a trade before the news and waiting for the market to calm down before considering re-entering. This can mean missing out, but too many times I was on the wrong side of the news, I'm more profitable stepping back first. Have positive involvement in the TradingView community From time to time I see comments on Trader's ideas that are less than positive, as though the commentator can predict the future? As a community of retail traders we are up against the institutions and the big money movers who love to take retail traders' money, this means as retail traders we're all on the same team. The total value of all of our accounts is like comparing the size of an atom to a planet! I've Learned: If you don't like someone's idea, move past it, or discuss professionally. Be open-minded to ideas and celebrate success, 'like' ideas that you like and give positive comments where you agree, we're all in this together, and everyone is trying their best. Do your own research I signed up to loads of Telegrams and followed signals blindly, and it cost me a lot. It's too easy for people giving signals to only report on the successful ones. The community around trading, particularly TradingView is awesome but it can be confusing, for every chart, for every pair there is so much subjectivity. Previous price action does not dictate future price movement, if it did everyone would win. I've Learned: Don't put your destiny in the hands of others, read and learn as much as possible but create your own plan and strategy, it's much more rewarding, both psychologically and for me, financially. Take a Break I was watching the charts of my trades almost constantly, whether up or down I was watching them, but not doing anything. If losing (without a SL) I'd be watching hoping it would come back, if winning I'd often manually close too early, or leave it too long (FOMO) and it was too much and made no positive impact on my trading success, it just caused stress. I've Learned: To create my plan with all of these lessons in mind, and action it if the conditions are right. If I'm working on my personal trading development now, I'm looking for future trading opportunities, I'm setting alerts for future price action, I'm writing and publishing my ideas, and most importantly I'm taking a break to enjoy weekends, holidays and normal stuff! Writing and publishing this education article is really cathartic for me, it's helping me to keep embedding the lessons I have learned. The best lessons are the hardest ones, the expensive ones! I've just started publishing my ideas on here and I appreciate all the support I can get to becoming a better trader, hopefully one day I can be good enough to do this full-time. It'd be great to know if you've experienced these and other lessons as a new trader. Are there any more that you can share with me, and the rest of the TradingView community?
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Chat GPT Ai stocks list for 2023Is chat gpt and Artificial Intelligence the next boom theme? Why are so many people talking about it recently? How long can this new trend create opportunity for , years, decades? How do we value the opportunity and avoid paying too much? Dont get ripped off and caught up in the hype, use math and valuation to price the reward and risk in a balanced logical way. The legends of investing have given us they formulas through lifetimes of trial and error. We just need to apply them. Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Phil Fisher, these guys used simple math to make fantastic decisions. Concepts like Price to Earnings vs growth, and balance sheet valuation concepts. Stick to the valuation math principles and make better logic decisions in these uncertain markets. Cheers!
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Top Financial Trades Ever Executed In Trading History7. Jesse Livermore, the father of modern short selling Profit on trade: Around $100 million Event: 1929 Stock Market Crash He was probably one of the first examples of a successful ‘short-seller’. Way back at the start of the last century he shorted stocks just prior to the San Francisco earthquake. For this trade he managed to make $3 million. Obviously gaining a taste for this type of trade, he then went on to short the market crash in 1907. This made him richer, to the tune of $100 million. The year 1929 is what he was most famous for. The stock market crash happened just as he shorted the entire market. It’s a great example of an intelligent, informed level of short trading. The day of the 1929 market crash made him $100 million. 6. Paul Tudor Jones Profit on trade: Around $100 million Event: Predicted Black Monday The next logical step in short trading success is this man. In 1980 Jones founded the Tudor Investment Corporation. In 1987 he emulated Livermore’s success and predicted Black Monday. No small feat, it earned him a huge financial reward, making him approximately $100 million. 5. Andrew Hall, the god of oil Profit made: Around $100 million Event: Going long on oil Andrew Hall is perhaps best described as an investor who played the long game. The price of oil has historically gone up and down over the decades, and Hall recognised this. So he made plans to capitalise on this understanding. Citigroup used to have an energy trading section, called Phibro. Hall worked for these people, and he was particularly interested in the price of oil. In 2003, the price of oil was low, at $30 per barrel. Hall traded very long on oil, betting on oil increasing in value to the tune of $100 within five years. It turned out that he had correctly predicted the level of growth. Problems ensued. Hall made Citigroup millions, but Citigroup didn’t pay Hall the full $100 million that they were supposed to. And then they got rid of Phibro. He’s known as a ‘god’ in oil trading circles. But the market is so volatile that Hall has recently gone on record to say that automated trading systems (rather than the instincts and studious approach he followed) are ruining oil trading. And he knows what he’s talking about. 4. John Arnold Profit on trade: Around $125 million Event: Amaranth and gas prices This is the perfect example of a trader who spent time looking carefully at the market conditions before shorting stocks that would be affected by those conditions. Arnold worked for an energy hedge fund, and he made some very good decisions around that market. A rival hedge fund named Amaranth llc had predicted that natural gas prices would rise as winter set in back in 2006. Arnold correctly predicted that the winter would be mild, and Arnold had shorted natural gas. He made a lot of money – around $125 million – and Amaranth folded. 3. George Soros, the man who broke the pound Profit on trade: Around $1 billion Event: Weakness of the British Pound The pound was backed up by the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and this meant it was protected on a global scale. This protection would never last, and Soros knew the artificial status of the pound was in jeopardy. The volatility of interest rates is needed for markets to thrive and this wasn’t happening. Soros shorted it. He happened to take a short position when the pound was doing very well on a fixed exchange rate. So it cost him a lot of money. He even had to borrow money to make the trades happen. The position rested entirely on the Bank of England experiencing a large and damaging event. It was a bold strategy. It worked, the British government withdrew from the Mechanism, and Soros made millions out of it. In fact, Soros is estimated to have made $1 billion after the dust had settled. 2. David Tepper, the man who bet against the financial crisis Profit on trade: Around $4 billion Event: 2009 Financial Crisis Here we have a man who simply took a sensible look at the banking sector and made a call. In 2009, the financial crisis had engulfed most economies, and the USA in particular was beginning to feel the pinch. It was not a great time to be a bank. Governments tend to nationalised banks and other financial institutions when things get really tough, and the USA was poised to do this. So Tepper did the opposite of what everyone thought he might do and he bought a very large amounts of bank stocks. That year, the major US banks returned to top form, and their stock rocketed. This made Tepper around $4 billion. 1. John Paulson, the man who shorted the subprime market Profit: Around $4 billion Event: Subprime mortgage market Paulson knew a thing or two about the housing market and he shorted at just the right time. Well, to be specific, he didn’t short the entire market, just the subprime part. He visited banks, including The Bank of America, and persuaded them to write credit-default swaps against the subprime mortgages market. When that market went bust, he profited heavily through his subsequent stocks trade. The hedge fund he was part of made around $4 billion from the market crash. I am the best version of prior self , the worst version of future self
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Rule of the Majority SignalA "Rule of the Majority" (RM) signal occurs when one of the three main U.S stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) makes a new high or low unaccompanied by the other two indices. The signals occur at major, intermediate and sometime short-term market turns. Because of the difused nature of stock market tops, RM signals are more likely to occur at stock market peaks as opposed to bottoms. I first observed the RM phenomenon after the major U.S stock market top in early 2000. This post illustrates an efective signal at the all-time high for U.S stocks - late 2021 and early 2022. The IXIC topped first on 11/22/21. SPX topped on 01/04/22. When the DJI made a solo new high on 01/05/22 it was an effective RM signal. The IXIC had on RM signal on 03/14/22 with its solo new low.
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Bitcoin -> More Potential To The UpsideHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin had a massive rally towards the upside, rejecting the very strong psychological 16.000 area. I mentioned this rally towards the upside over and over again, since Bitcoin was also retesting the previous all-time-high of the last crypto cycle in 2018, which is now turned very strong support. Considering that crypto pumps can last longer than most people think, I am now just waiting for a classic break and retest from a daily perspective to go long on Bitcoin. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
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USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailOPEC+ panel endorsed the oil producer group's current output policy at a meeting on Wednesday - 2nd February 2023, leaving production cuts as agreed last year in place amid hopes of higher Chinese demand and uncertain prospects for Russian supply. Despite fundamental expectations, the US Oil prices tumbled 8.5% during the course of last week's trading session to signal a fresh dent in oil market sentiment for the month of February. This video illustrates a technical perspective on the current market structure for trading opportunities in the coming week. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Bobby's Homework Assignment2.5.23 In this video we finished up with oil. I opened up the chart a little bit so you can see more clearly where the gaps were and how the market Retested gaps and how this relates to how you might manage today's bar Based on caps from previous days. To be clear, The market can create a gap on today's bar and you can manage the market with today's gap. Open up an oil Daily chart....And look for these gaps and how the markets retest them ....It is worth the time. if you get 80% of what I'm saying and you're not sure about the other 20%... Don't fret, if you have 70% you'll figure out the rest of it if you focus on it for a week or two or a month .In much the same way there could be issues with ABCD patterns which work great but sometimes there's a challenge with picking the A point of an ABCD pattern....most of the time it is not an issue...You will figure it out when it is. Regarding the closing statement of this video: I will do fewer videos, I don't really have a choice. I will generally look at fewer markets because they don't have any real value to my trading. With all the things that I have to tend to at this stage of my life, I end up not having time to trade and have any sense of balance. I've had these issues over the past 4 years but the fact that we grow older, and our physiology changes requires adaptation. I'm considering Occasional videos on trades that I take as long as I don't become a signal service. One of my students was telling me there is a well-known trader large following in tradingview...Who offers professional training and a signal service. When he has losing trades, some of his followers become contentious and angry. My personal belief is that if you can't trade without the signal service you shouldn't be Trading. There are many reasons why that doesn't work. I'd advise my students to trade the futures market. You should be trading only one market at a time when you're learning how to do this comma and you have to have enough capital to do it. If it's your money you have to make the decision when to take your profits. Actually, if it's your money and you're taking a trade you probably will make your decision to take profits differently than the signal service. I could go on and on about this but there is no need for this from my point of view. If you want to trade the market and make money, Learn how to read the market comma get some professional training if you need it.... and make your own decisions... and go back to analyze you're thinking before and after the trade to look for improvement. First and foremost, if you don't have enough money and you're not realistic you shouldn't trade. The government in the united states Is trying to eliminate the qualification exams for doctors and lawyers to be accepted into professional schools.... all In the name of equality. This is the pathway to mediocrity and failure . If you want to be successful, don't settle on Equality, make darn sure that you're going to be excellent, not equal, before you start trading.
Lazyluchi Talks Nasdaq100 Episode 37New week in NQ. 12500 is the MARK for bears and 12800 is the MARK for bulls. The structure is currently a little bit mixed because there’s a LH and the HL hasn’t been broken yet. Let’s see what she begins with. Have a great WEEK y’all. New week in NQ. 12500 is the MARK for bears and 12800 is the MARK for bulls. The structure is currently a little bit mixed because there’s a LH and the HL hasn’t been broken yet. Let’s see what she begins with. Have a great WEEK y’all.
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USDJPY I Short from psychological resistance zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
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AW Euro Dollar Analysis - Let's Clear Up The Euro Pattern...In this video I explain the slight changes in the wave count since last week. Without AriasWave it would be near impossible to get it right. From Here on out I can only see this move getting easier to read. The reason I find it important to know as much as possible about what we see here is because of Cryptos. The Euro is a gauge for when markets will inevitably finish their current corrections. In reality there isn't much time left but at least we know it won't be next week or possibly even next month. We could be looking at April, May, or June. Or later, depends. Whatever the outcome, I will be keep tabs on this market along with XLM and XRP the whole way through. In the meantime, it doesn't hurt to get on the AW team and learn the waves. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
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The Three Black Crows PatternThe Three Black Crows or as otherwise known Three Soldiers are a formation of price continuation showing how the bears are taking control over the bulls to reverse the trend as we can see here. Price comes down buyers try to push it back up only to be reversed by sellers overpowering them so it falls back down the buyers try again but realise the bear is the almighty and with that last attempt they withdraw from the market causing a big sell off with a strong downward movement when just the bears remain key points: - last attempt of the bulls - price goes up and bears push price down every time - bears in control after a long uptrend shows prelude to sell
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