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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Activate the alarm function when touching the set indicator Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- One of the good things about using TradingView charts is that you can use the alarm function. This alarm function has a limit on the number depending on the plan you use, so please check it out. I will take the time to explain the alarm function using my chart. It is hard, boring, and tedious to just look at the chart until you meet the desired trading point or criteria. If you do that, you may end up making a wrong trade or missing the trading period while doing something else. If you create an alarm and change the Value section to the HA-MS_BW indicator, multiple indicators will be displayed. The indicators currently activated on the chart are HA-Low, HA-High, BW, and M-Signal indicators on the 1D chart, so you can select BW or HA-Low, LH, LL and check if the alarm turns on when they cross. When looking at the 15m chart, since it is moving sideways in the box section of the HA-Low indicator, if you set it to LH, LL indicator, the alarm will come when you touch the upper or lower point of the box. Then, you can use it conveniently when you want to trade within the box section. If you want to trade in a large trend, I think it would be good to set the alarm to turn on when you touch the 5EMA on the 1D chart. Or, you can set the alarm to turn on when the OBV indicator breaks through the high (HH) or low (LL) line upward. If you are a paid member of TradingView, I highly recommend using the alarm function. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture The real uptrend is expected to start after it rises above 29K. The area expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
TOP 20 TRADING PATTERNS [cheat sheet]Hey here is Technical Patterns cheat sheet for traders. 🖨 Every trader must print this cheatsheet and keep it on the desk 👍 🖼 Printable picture below (Right click > Save Image As…) In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results. As such it has been described by many academics as pseudoscience. Fundamental analysts examine earnings, dividends, assets, quality, ratio, new products, research and the like. Technicians employ many methods, tools and techniques as well, one of which is the use of charts. Using charts, technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and market trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. Technicians using charts search for archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top/bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, moving averages and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns. Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility) and put/call ratios with price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc. There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for example: Candlestick analysis, the oldest form of technical analysis developed by a Japanese grain trader; Harmonics; Dow theory; and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation. Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions. Best regards Artem Shevelev
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArtemFuturesTrading
239
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!! Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading: -The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal. -According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with around 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit. -More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken. -A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases. -However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%. -The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, neckline breakout, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary. -It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses. __________________________________________________________________ Head and Shoulders: Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading: -The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways: - Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading. - In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern. - It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal. - The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary. - Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses. _____________________________________________________________________________ NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
Basic example of starting a trade Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- This is an example of starting a trade, explaining that you should objectively define the basics that are right for you. Therefore, I hope that this will be an opportunity to reexamine your trading judgment criteria rather than judging it as right or wrong. ----------------------------------------- It is showing a downward trend without breaking through the sell line of the superTrend indicator. Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support near the M-Signal indicator (approximately 59953.52) on the 1W chart and rise above 60672.0-61099.25. If not, you should check whether it is supported near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart). Therefore, 1st: 59053.55 2nd: 57889.10 You should check whether it is supported near the 1st and 2nd above. - Usually, there are many cases where you trade impulsively based on your psychological state. To prevent this, it is good to have an objective trading method according to your investment style. This objectification is best done at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Therefore, it is good to trade based on whether it is supported near 59053.55 or 60720.0-61099.25. However, judging whether it is supported only by sight can lead to an incorrect judgment depending on psychological factors that occur during trading, so it is good to have objective information as the basis for judgment. It refers to indicators added to the chart as objective information. The MS-Signal indicator is used as a trend-related indicator, which is the M-Signal indicator of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. As a trading-related indicator, the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and their corresponding box sections, superTend, and volume profile are used. As a trading-related reference auxiliary indicator, the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator are used. - If we explain the current movement by referring to these indicators, - The superTrend indicator, which is passing around 60672.0-61099.25, has failed to rise above the sell line, - It is showing a downward trend below the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart, - The StochRSI indicator is showing a trend of changing from an upward to a downward slope in the overbought section. However, since the StochRSI indicator has not yet fallen from the overbought zone and is not in a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, it is difficult to see it as a downward turn. Therefore, an aggressive sell (SHORT) is possible between the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the 60672.0-61099.25 range. Afterwards, when the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone and becomes a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, if it shows resistance near 59053.55 or the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, you can sell (SHORT). If it is supported at the point mentioned above, you can buy (LONG). However, it is recommended to check whether the state has been changed to StochRSI > StochRSI EMA. If not, it can pretend to rise and fall right away. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K. The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are the points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points. We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
Understanding Price Clustering in the Bitcoin Market█ Understanding Price Clustering in the Bitcoin Market Price clustering is a phenomenon where certain price levels, particularly round numbers, tend to appear more frequently in financial markets. This study focuses on how price clustering occurs in the Bitcoin market, providing insights that can be valuable for traders. █ The Psychology Behind Price Clustering One of the primary reasons behind price clustering in the Bitcoin market is the psychological impact of round numbers. Market participants often perceive prices ending in 0 or 00 as significant, which leads to a concentration of buy and sell orders around these levels. This behavior is not unique to Bitcoin; it has been observed across various financial markets, from stocks to foreign exchange. For instance, when Bitcoin prices approach a round number like $30,000 or $50,000, traders might expect strong resistance or support at these levels. This expectation can lead to increased trading activity, causing prices to cluster around these key levels. The psychological importance of these numbers can also cause traders to place stop-loss or take-profit orders around them, further reinforcing the clustering effect. █ Key Findings from the Study ⚪ Clustering Around Round Numbers: The study highlights that Bitcoin prices tend to cluster around round numbers, such as $10,000, $20,000, or $50,000. This is primarily driven by psychological barriers, where traders view these round numbers as significant price levels, leading to an increased concentration of trading activity. ⚪ Impact of Time Frames: The extent of price clustering varies significantly with the time frame. In shorter time frames (like 1-minute or 15-minute intervals), price clustering is less pronounced due to the randomness of price movements. However, as the time frame lengthens (hourly or daily), the clustering effect becomes more apparent, suggesting that traders may be more likely to anchor their strategies around these round numbers over longer periods. ⚪ Differences in Open, High, and Low Prices: The study also finds differences in clustering patterns between open, high, and low prices. High prices tend to cluster around the digits 8, 9, and 0, while low prices cluster around 1, 2, and 0. Open prices generally show less clustering, suggesting they are less influenced by immediate market psychology. This pattern suggests that traders should pay particular attention to high and low prices during trading sessions, as these are more likely to show clustering around key levels. High Price: This is the highest price that Bitcoin reaches during a specific time period (for example, during a day or an hour). The study found that high prices cluster more around certain numbers, especially numbers ending in 0 or 9. So, high prices often end in numbers like $10, $100, $1,000, or $9,999 because traders tend to react to these round numbers. Low Price: This is the lowest price Bitcoin hits during a certain time period. Similar to high prices, low prices also cluster, but more around numbers ending in 0 and 1. So, low prices might end in numbers like $10, $1,001, or $5,001. Why is there a difference? High prices tend to cluster at numbers ending in 0 or 9 because those feel like natural stopping points for traders. Low prices tend to cluster at numbers ending in 0 or 1 for similar reasons. ⚪ Price Level Influence: The study highlights that clustering behavior changes with the overall price level of Bitcoin. At lower price levels (e.g., below $10,000), there is more clustering around multiples of 5, such as $25, $50, or $75. As the price increases, the significance of these smaller increments diminishes, and clustering around larger round numbers becomes more dominant. █ Practical Insights for Retail Traders Understanding price clustering is crucial for traders because it sheds light on how market participants behave, particularly around psychologically significant price levels. These insights can help traders anticipate where the market might encounter resistance or support, allowing them to make more informed decisions. ⚪ Identify Key Psychological Levels: Retail traders can benefit from identifying and monitoring round number levels in Bitcoin prices, such as $10,000, $30,000, or $50,000. These levels are likely to act as psychological barriers, leading to increased trading activity. Understanding these levels can help traders anticipate potential support or resistance areas where price reversals may occur. ⚪ Adjust Trading Strategies Based on Time Frame: The study suggests that the effectiveness of using price clustering in trading strategies depends on the time frame. For short-term traders, clustering may be less reliable, but for those operating on longer time frames, clustering around round numbers could provide actionable signals for entry or exit points. ⚪ Focus on High and Low Prices: Retail traders should pay particular attention to clustering in high and low prices during a trading session. These prices are more likely to exhibit clustering, indicating areas where traders might place stop-loss orders or where price reversals could occur. By aligning their trades with these clusters, traders could improve their risk management. If you’re setting stop-loss orders, for instance, placing them just beyond a cluster point could help you avoid being stopped out prematurely by normal market noise. Similarly, identifying clusters at high prices could offer better opportunities for taking profits. ⚪ Consider the Overall Price Level: The level at which Bitcoin is trading also affects clustering. For example, when Bitcoin is at a lower price, traders might find opportunities by focusing on price levels ending in 5 or 0. However, as Bitcoin’s price increases, clustering becomes more concentrated around larger round numbers. Adjusting trading strategies to consider the current price level can enhance decision-making. Price Clustering at Low Levels (<$10 USD): There is significant clustering at prices ending in 0, but also notable clustering at prices ending in 5, which acts as a psychological barrier at these lower levels. Prices ending with 50 are also frequently observed as significant psychological barriers. Clustering is weaker overall at these levels compared to higher price ranges, but still noticeable at certain intervals. Price Clustering at Mid-Levels ($100–$1,000 USD): Clustering becomes more focused on round numbers like 00, 50, and 25. As prices increase, clustering around smaller numbers like 5 or 10 reduces. Larger psychological barriers, such as 100 and 500, emerge as significant points of clustering. Price Clustering at Higher Levels (≥ $10,000 USD): At these price levels, clustering becomes even more prominent around major round numbers like 10,000, 20,000, etc. The last two digits 00 become much more frequent, and there is almost no clustering at digits like 5 or 1. Clustering becomes very strong at larger round figures, with a strong psychological barrier hypothesis at play. Summary of Clustering at Different Levels: Low Prices (<$10): Clustering at 5, 10, 50, and 100. Mid Prices ($100–$1,000): Strong clustering at 00, 50, and 25. High Prices (≥$10,000): Dominant clustering around 00 and multiples of 1,000 (e.g., 10,000, 20,000). █ Conclusion Price clustering is more than just an academic concept; it’s a practical tool that can significantly enhance your trading strategy. By understanding how prices tend to cluster around psychological levels, adapting your approach based on time frames, and recognizing the impact of Bitcoin’s price level, you can make more informed trading decisions. By integrating these insights into your trading plan, you’re not only aligning your strategy with the behavior of the broader market but also positioning yourself to capitalize on key price movements. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, the knowledge of price clustering can help you navigate the volatile Bitcoin market with greater confidence and precision. █  Reference Xin, L., Shenghong, L., & Chong, X. (2020). Price clustering in Bitcoin market—An extension. Finance Research Letters, 32, 101072. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
7
All About the Head & Shoulders Pattern(Beginner-Friendly) Part.2Hello, everyone. Today, I’m excited to share the second part of my educational series on chart patterns. In this post, we’ll be focusing on the 'Head and Shoulders' and 'Inverse Head and Shoulders' patterns. For those who missed the first part, you can catch up here: ↓↓↓ As always, I’ve kept the explanations simple and beginner-friendly. I hope this guide provides you with valuable insights! Here’s today’s outline: ———— ✔️ Outline 1. What is the Head and Shoulders pattern? Definition Key components Characteristics 2. Head and Shoulders Basic features Examples 3. Inverse Head and Shoulders Basic features Examples ———— 1. What is the "Head and Shoulders" pattern? 1) Definition The Head and Shoulders pattern is a well-established reversal formation that appears after an uptrend and signals the potential start of a downtrend. It indicates that buying pressure is weakening and selling pressure is gaining momentum. 2) Key components Left Shoulder: The initial peak, where the price rises and then pulls back. Head : The highest peak, situated between the two shoulders, representing the final bullish push. Right Shoulder: The third peak, which is typically lower than the head but similar to the left shoulder, signaling diminishing buying interest. Neckline: A key support line drawn across the lows of the left and right shoulders. A decisive break below this neckline confirms the reversal and the beginning of a downtrend. 3) Characteristics Reversal signal: The Head and Shoulders pattern marks a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend. Easy identification: The structure is visually distinctive, with three clear peaks. Neckline significance: A break below the neckline serves as a confirmation signal for the downtrend. Volume dynamics: Volume typically rises during the formation of the left shoulder and head, decreases during the right shoulder, and surges again when the neckline is breached. ———— 2. Head and Shoulders (Reversal from uptrend to downtrend) 1) Basic features End of an uptrend: The Head and Shoulders pattern forms at the end of a bullish phase, signaling a weakening in buying strength. Distinct peak heights: The head is always higher than the shoulders, which are generally symmetrical, though the right shoulder may sometimes be slightly lower, enhancing the pattern’s reliability. Neckline as a trigger: The neckline acts as a critical support level. A break below it confirms the pattern and signals the onset of a bearish trend. Volume confirmation: Volume increases during the left shoulder and head formations, weakens during the right shoulder, and spikes when the neckline is broken, confirming a potential sell-off. Price target: After the pattern completes, the expected price drop is typically equal to the distance between the head and the neckline, providing traders with a target. 2-1) Example 1 In this example, we see a fakeout at the right shoulder, followed by a sharp decline. After a brief retest of the neckline, the price broke through and continued its downtrend. 2-2) Example 2 In this chart, a fakeout occurred when the price dropped from the head and formed the neckline, misleading many market participants. After forming the right shoulder, the price successfully declined. There were two retests, which confirmed the reliability of the pattern. ———— 3. Reverse Head and Shoulders (Trend reversal from downtrend to uptrend) 1) Basic features End of a downtrend: The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern typically forms at the end of a downtrend, signaling a potential reversal to the upside. Formation of lows: Like the standard Head and Shoulders, this pattern consists of three lows—left shoulder, head, and right shoulder—with the head being the lowest point. Neckline significance: The neckline is drawn across the highs of the left and right shoulders. A break above this line confirms the reversal and acts as a strong buy signal. Volume pattern: Volume tends to decrease during the formation of the pattern but surges when the neckline is broken, signaling strong buying momentum. Target setting: After the pattern is confirmed, the expected price rise is often equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, which helps traders set profit targets. 2-1) Example 1 After the Head and Shoulders pattern formed, the price broke above the neckline, successfully reversing the downtrend into an uptrend. A buy strategy would have yielded profits at the breakout point. 2-2) Example 2 In this example, a smaller Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern formed within the head of a larger pattern (see Example 3). After two successful retests, the price reversed into a strong uptrend. 2-3) Example 3 This example showcases the smaller Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern mentioned in Example 2, located within the head. After two successful retests, a buy strategy could have led to profits as the price reversed into an uptrend. ———— ✔️ Conclusion "Charts are the maps of the market." The Head and Shoulders and Reverse Head and Shoulders patterns we’ve covered in this post are key signals that frequently appear in the market. Charts aren’t random—they are visual representations of market psychology and investor behavior. As traders, our role is to interpret these maps, navigate the market, and make informed decisions. Investing is more than just buying and selling. Sometimes the market may move contrary to our expectations, while other times we seize opportunities and achieve success. Each experience is a chance to learn and grow. The more experience you gain, the more paths you’ll recognize on the chart. Success in this market requires persistence, patience, and continuous learning. Understanding and analyzing chart patterns like the ones discussed here is just the beginning. I hope this post has helped you gain a deeper understanding of the market and make more informed decisions. The market is always evolving, but within that evolution lies opportunity. The key is developing the ability to spot those opportunities. With knowledge, experience, and confidence, you’ll find greater success. Stay prepared, and always listen to what the market is telling you.
Education
by Killer_Whales
1
Bitcoin’s Rounded Top [Wyckoff Distribution]: 5 Phases to KnowHello, Trading Community! Today, we dive into the fascinating world of the Wyckoff Distribution model as it applies to Bitcoin's current market structure. Please remember that this article is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as trading advice. While we explore potential scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin heading down to $30,000 or even $25,000, these claims are speculative and should be considered hypothetical. The Wyckoff Distribution Model: A Roadmap for Market Tops The Wyckoff Distribution model offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how major market players distribute their holdings before a significant downturn. It is divided into several phases: Phase A: The market begins to show preliminary signs of selling pressure after an extended uptrend. This is the first hint that the balance of power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Phase B: The market enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways as large investors gradually distribute their positions. Phase C: A deceptive breakout, known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), occurs here, often trapping unsuspecting retail traders. Phase D: The onset of a decline, marked by clear Signs of Weakness (SOW), indicates that the distribution phase is nearing its end. Phase E: The final phase, where the market confirms the distribution and continues to fall, marking the completion of the process. Breaking Down Bitcoin's Key Price Points Let's take a closer look at the crucial price points that have defined Bitcoin's current structure within the Wyckoff Distribution model: Buying Climax (BC) - $73,660 This is the pinnacle of buying activity, where demand reaches its peak before supply starts to dominate. For Bitcoin, this level marked the highest point in the current cycle before a significant sell-off began. Automatic Reaction (AR) - $60,795 Following the Buying Climax, the market experienced an Automatic Reaction—a sharp drop as sellers stepped in. This level is critical as it signifies the start of the distribution process. Upthrust (UT) - $71,180 The Upthrust represents a rally that tests the resistance near the Buying Climax. However, it fails to sustain those levels, hinting that the market's upward momentum is weakening. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) - $71,680 The UTAD often serves as a bull trap, where the price makes a final push above the resistance only to quickly reverse. This move confirms that distribution is taking place. Sign of Weakness (SOW) - $54,344 After the UTAD, the market drops significantly, signaling a clear Sign of Weakness. This level demonstrates that sellers are gaining control, pushing the price to new lows. Last Point of Supply 1 (LPSY 1) - $70,040 The first Last Point of Supply (LPSY 1) is a weaker rally that fails to reach previous highs. This is a key indicator that the market's bullish momentum is fading, and distribution is nearing completion. Last Point of Supply 2 (LPSY 2) - $65,105 Currently, Bitcoin is in Phase E, at the LPSY 2 point. This level is crucial as it typically marks the final confirmation of distribution before a sustained downtrend. Navigating Phase E: The Final Act of Distribution As Bitcoin navigates through Phase E, the LPSY 2 level becomes a focal point. This phase is characterized by further price declines as the market confirms the distribution. Here’s what to watch for: Lower Highs and Lower Lows: Expect the price to continue forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish trend. Volume Patterns: During this phase, volume analysis becomes critical. Look for decreasing volume on upswings and increasing volume on downswings, which confirms the presence of distribution. Final Thoughts The Wyckoff Distribution model provides a structured way to understand how markets transition from bullish to bearish trends. With Bitcoin currently exhibiting a Rounded Top structure and sitting at LPSY 2 in Phase E, the evidence suggests that we may be on the cusp of further declines. By staying vigilant and analyzing key price levels and volume patterns, traders can better position themselves to navigate this challenging market environment. In this complex market phase, understanding the underlying forces at play can be the difference between protecting your capital and being caught off guard by the next big move. Stay tuned for more!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArtemFuturesTrading
7
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions. Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations. ▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options. DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange. BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set. * In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same. ▮ Interpreting the chart 🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values ​​indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events. 🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease. 🔶 Low values ​​indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets. 🔶 To get an idea of ​​the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%. 🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points. 🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top. 🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom. ▮ Example The price of BTC here is at the top in white. The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red. The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values ​​are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret. On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation. In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline. When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized. Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box. ▮ Conclusion Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements. Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk. ⚠️ But remember: Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever. Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability. Do your own analysis and risk management.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by andre_007
11
BTC Short using ICT Market Maker Sell Model (Explained)ICT Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM) for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Key Components: 1. Original Consolidation: - This is the initial phase where the price consolidates within a range, indicating accumulation by smart money. 2. Smart Money Reversal: - This area marks the point where smart money starts to take profit or reverse their positions, leading to a reversal in the market trend. 3. Market Structure Shift: - This indicates a significant change in market direction with a displacement 4. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): - They are marked as potential areas of interest where price might return to fill these gaps. 5. Sellside Liquidity: - This is the area where liquidity is collected, often below the market structure where stop-losses and other sell orders are triggered. 6. Re-Distribution: - After the initial move down, the market redistributes, often retesting previous support areas or fair value gaps before continuing the trend. Chart Analysis: 1. Consolidation Phase: - The price starts with an original consolidation phase where accumulation occurs. 2. Upward Move: - After consolidation, there's an upward move indicating bullish market conditions. 3. Smart Money Reversal and Low Risk Sell: - The price reaches a peak where smart money starts to reverse their positions. The chart highlights a 'Low Risk Sell Inside FVG' which is an optimal selling point within a fair value gap, suggesting a high probability sell zone. 4. Market Structure Shift: - After the peak, the market experiences a shift in structure, breaking previous support levels and signaling a bearish trend. 5. Downtrend and Redistribution: - The price moves down sharply, redistributing within fair value gaps. The chart highlights these gaps (fvg) where price might retrace to fill before continuing downward. 6. Sellsides Liquidity Targeted: - The market targets sellside liquidity, triggering sell orders and stop-losses, leading to further downward pressure. Practical Use: - Identifying Entry and Exit Points: - Traders use this model to identify optimal entry (sell) points within fair value gaps and exit points where liquidity might be targeted. - Understanding Market Phases: - Recognizing different market phases (accumulation, distribution, and redistribution) helps in anticipating market moves. By understanding these components and their interplay, traders can better anticipate market movements and make informed trading decisions. 🙏 Support Me! If you enjoy my analyses and content, please consider following me and leaving a like/boost and a follow . Your support motivates me to keep creating high-quality content and sharing it with the community. Thank you for your support! 🚀
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SerenityEquity
Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact. Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me. I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading. I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory. When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct. Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below; And step two; In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment. We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game. Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you. This is where sentiment really comes in. As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd. Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool. So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias. I wrote an article in 2021 here - About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions. If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series. Stay safe and wish you all the best. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart: Rules: Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Guidelines: Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5 Relations with Fib ratios: Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep) Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest) Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow) Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by WaveTattva
Bitcoin Halving DatesThis indicator marks the dates of Bitcoin halving events on your chart, providing valuable context for long-term Bitcoin price analysis. What are Bitcoin Halvings? Bitcoin halvings are pre-programmed events in the Bitcoin protocol that occur approximately every four years (or every 210,000 blocks). During a halving, the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created. This mechanism is designed to control Bitcoin's supply and mimic the scarcity of precious metals. Why are Halvings Important? Halvings are significant because they: 1. Reduce the inflation rate of Bitcoin 2. Increase scarcity, which can impact supply and demand dynamics 3. Often coincide with increased public interest in Bitcoin 4. Have historically preceded periods of price appreciation Indicator Features: • Displays vertical lines at each Bitcoin halving date • Shows labels with key information for each halving event • Includes countdown to the next halving • Customizable colors and label positions Each label displays: 1. The ordinal number of the halving (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.) 2. The exact date of the halving 3. Bitcoin's price at the time of the halving 4. Days remaining until the next halving Usage: This indicator is particularly useful for: • Visualizing Bitcoin's price history in relation to halving events • Analyzing potential long-term price trends • Planning long-term investment strategies • Educational purposes to understand Bitcoin's emission schedule Customization: Users can adjust: • Line color and width • Label color and position Note: Future halving dates are estimates and may be subject to slight variations due to fluctuations in block times. Disclaimer: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only, and it is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. I hope you find this indicator helpful in your Bitcoin analysis. Feedback and suggestions for improvement are welcome!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DeFi_initiate
ELLIOTT WAVES CHEAT SHEET 🏄‍♂️ 10 RulesHello, here is a cheat sheet for Elliott Waves for top 10 Rules, so you can print this out and keep on your desk. The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature's Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable." The empirical validity of the Elliott wave principle remains the subject of debate.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by ArtemFuturesTrading
354
Elementary Bitcoin in its entirety for beginnersUnlike all kinds of cryptocurrencies, the issue of Bitcoin is limited by the condition of a regular reduction in the size of the mining reward. Naturally, the American dollar will always be issued without any special restrictions. This allows you to make a basic calculation: “infinity” divided by “21 million” = “infinity”. That is, theoretically, in the infinite future, Bitcoin can cost as much as you like; based on general data, you can already calculate the nearest maximum target of $120k at the end of 2025. Of course people won't spend all their dollars on Bitcoin because they have other needs to survive. People will buy and sell Bitcoin to achieve their budget goals. Therefore, the price will not rise every day. Looking at the figure, you can see three symbolic exponents (blue at the bottom, red at the top and orange in the middle) the struggle between buyers and sellers unfolds. But this is not a fact that the price will reach them, since the real exponential median is extended into eternity, or at least for the next hundred years until all Bitcoin is mined. The most likely upward trend will fluctuate around a straight white line. I think the price will charge below this line and shoot exponentially much higher again and again as mankind's speculative sentiment never runs out. Therefore, in the near future, since the price has not reached its nearest maximum immediately, a break is needed to recharge. Anything can happen at once, but most likely it will drop below the previously mentioned orange exponential and below the white straight line to collect at least part of the liquidity between $28k-33k and reverse fast back to its nearest target at $120k. I believe this downward and upward movement will occur before the end of 2025. However, from my own experience, I can note that my scenarios are implemented much faster because we are not given time, we create it ourselves. Therefore, just stay in touch and watch the unfold of events vertically if you are not in a hurry. =] I still provide brief comments as the story progresses from that “Watchlist, details and news” section in the upper right corner of the screen on the stationary monitor. Best wishes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by tradephenomena
Understanding Market Volatility and Its Impact on BitcoinIntroduction Market volatility is a crucial aspect that every Bitcoin investor and trader must understand. In this section, we'll explore what market volatility is, how it affects Bitcoin, and strategies to manage it. What is Market Volatility? Market volatility refers to the rate at which the price of an asset, such as Bitcoin, increases or decreases for a given set of returns. High volatility means that the price of Bitcoin can change dramatically over a short period, both positively and negatively. How Does Volatility Impact Bitcoin? Price Swings: Bitcoin is known for its significant price swings, which can be driven by various factors such as market sentiment, regulatory news, macroeconomic trends, and technological advancements. Investor Behavior: Volatility often influences investor behavior, leading to increased buying or selling pressure. This can result in rapid price movements, creating opportunities and risks. Market Sentiment: Positive news can lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices, while negative news can result in sharp declines. Understanding market sentiment is crucial for predicting these movements. Managing Volatility Diversification: Spread your investments across different assets to reduce risk. Diversification can help cushion the impact of volatility on your portfolio. Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Setting predetermined exit points can protect your investments during periods of high volatility. Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and trends in the cryptocurrency market. Being informed allows you to make timely decisions and react appropriately to market changes. Long-term Perspective: Focus on the long-term potential of Bitcoin rather than short-term price fluctuations. A long-term perspective can help you stay calm during volatile periods. Conclusion Understanding market volatility is essential for navigating the Bitcoin market. By recognizing how volatility impacts prices and adopting strategies to manage it, you can better position yourself to take advantage of opportunities while minimizing risks. Stay informed, diversify your investments, and maintain a long-term perspective to thrive in the ever-changing world of Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by moneymagnateash
2
Divergence - asset price directionDivergence is the discrepancy between the direction of an asset's price and the readings of an indicator. There are three types of divergences: classical, extended, and hidden. The first two can be used to gauge market sentiment and to trade in the opposite direction. Hidden divergence, however, is more significant and can serve as a powerful supplementary factor in determining the price direction and opening positions. The use of extended divergence is not necessary, as it rarely occurs and forms at equal highs or lows. In such cases, an indicator is not needed to gauge market sentiment; the chart itself will suffice. Classical Divergence Classical divergence indicates a potential trend reversal or the beginning of a correction. Bullish classical divergence is identified when a lower low (LL) forms on the chart while a higher low (HL) appears on the indicator. The masses buy when classical bullish divergence appears, anticipating significant growth. An upward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for buying is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the decline will continue. Long positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bear market, classical bullish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction. Bearish classical divergence is identified when a higher high (HH) forms on the chart while a lower high (LH) appears on the indicator. The masses sell when classical bearish divergence appears, expecting a significant decline. A downward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for selling is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the growth will continue. Short positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bull market, classical bearish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction. The formation of multiple divergences is common. The masses will seize every opportunity to open their positions, leading to unprofitable outcomes. The number of divergences before the start of a correction is not limited. It is recommended to wait for the price to react after reaching the resistance zone. In the example above, the correction began after partially filling the imbalance on the 1D timeframe within the imbalance on the 1W timeframe. Hidden Divergence Hidden divergence serves as a confirmation of trend continuation. Bullish hidden divergence is identified when a higher low (HL) forms on the chart and a lower low (LL) appears on the indicator. In an uptrend, hidden bullish divergence may form before the continuation of growth, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions. Bearish hidden divergence is identified when a lower high (LH) forms on the chart and a higher high (HH) appears on the indicator. In a downtrend, hidden bearish divergence may form before the continuation of the decline, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions. Notes - The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator is used to identify divergences. - RSI is plotted without considering candle shadows. - Divergence should be viewed as an additional factor to your analysis, not a standalone tool. - Divergence below the chart will always be bullish, while divergence above the chart will always be bearish.
Education
by truepersonal
New crypto world or just a bubble?Imagine how a young student from Norway, Christopher Koch, finds himself in a virtual labyrinth of the Internet, where in one of its corners a mysterious light flickers - information about the brave new world of digital currency called Bitcoin. Driven by a fierce passion for learning the art of finance, Christopher decides to invest his modest $25 in 5,000 coins of this currency and leave them alone for four years, like grains in sand, hoping for a miracle. And lo and behold, a miracle happens! When he suddenly returns to this world, Bitcoin, like the stars in the night sky, doubles its value over and over again, turning a modest initial investment into a fountain of $800,000, illuminating Christopher's path with an endless light of wealth. Meanwhile, in another corner of the world, James Howells, like a hero from a fairy tale, finds himself in a dark room where his old disk lies, from which 7,500 bitcoins suddenly shine like treasure in the valley of dragons. But, unfortunately, the key to the treasury was lost, and the disk is now hidden deep underground, under a layer of time and oblivion. These two stories, like little sand stars on the ocean shore, reflect the grand journeys and vicissitudes of the world of cryptocurrencies, where every step can be a magical or dark turn on the path to wealth and adventure. These are just two of the many stories played out in the cryptocurrency theater. Some students turn their study days into journeys to make millions, others get lost in the maze of the pursuit of quick money, and some simply lose the keys to their treasure troves and are unable to unlock the doors to their wealth. Cryptocurrencies are not only financial instruments, but also plots for exciting stories about adventures, discoveries and losses that make our world more mysterious and fascinating. This is what New York looked like in September 2008: one after another, people in expensive suits with boxes in their hands come out of a building in the center of Manhattan. These people were fired from the world's largest bank, L Brothers, and so far no one knows that these layoffs will begin the deepest economic crisis on the planet since the Great Depression. A decline in production, an increase in unemployment, the disappearance of easy loans - all these signs indicate that a collapse may hit us too. Almost no one thought that more than 2 million people in the United States alone would lose their jobs. The crisis will spread to other countries that are closely linked to the American economy, and pension funds around the world will lose trillions of dollars. Imagine a world where money is not printed by the state, but is masterfully forged by participants in a new game called blockchain. In 2008, an anonymous person under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto challenged established rules by releasing his creation into the world - Bitcoin, a digital currency in which there is no place for banking dependence or government control. This is something incredible, where every operation is a small masterpiece of cryptography, captured in the blockchain. Let's see how it works: one participant transfers 10 coins to another, and after a while he returns five coins to him. But there is no room for fraud or oblivion, because each operation is encrypted and inextricably linked to previous blocks. It's like a game of ciphers where one mistake destroys the entire maze. Each block in the blockchain is not just a record, but a quest where to create a new block you need to find the correct hash, consisting of a thousand characters. Miners are unusual treasure hunters who solve complex computational problems to discover that hash and earn their Bitcoin. And the more difficult the task, the greater the delight and reward, just like in the most exciting game. This is how digital currency appeared, which became a symbol of the financial revolution and a new era of independence.

 On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote his name into history by creating the first block in the Bitcoin blockchain. In this block, as in the mysterious letter of time, there were no financial transactions. Instead, it contained just one phrase that caught the world's attention: "The Chancellor is on the brink of a second bank bailout." This phrase, which became the headline of the British newspaper Times, reflected the deep financial crisis that gripped the world. A few days later, on January 12, Satoshi made the first real transaction in block 170, sending 10 bitcoins to programmer Hal Finney. With each new block, more and more people learned about Bitcoin, joined the process and became part of this revolutionary technology. It's hard to believe, but in the early days Bitcoin was worth less than one cent and was used more as an experimental technology than as a medium of exchange. However, with the passage of time and the spread of knowledge about it, Bitcoin began to gain increasing fame and value, turning from an experiment into a revolution in the world of finance.

 Bitcoin is a unique form of digital wealth where ownership is entirely yours. No banks or intermediaries are required to transfer it. All you need to do is know the recipient’s wallet address, and you can carry out the transaction shares directly. It is important to remember that the only way to lose your funds is to reveal the key to your wallet to scammers. Bitcoin is also unique in that it has strict mining rules. Only 21 million coins will be created, and every 210,000 blocks the reward for finding the hash of a new block is halved. This means that if in 2009 a miner received 50 bitcoins per block, today this number has decreased to just over three. Despite the decrease in rewards, the number of miners is growing, and huge farms covering thousands of square meters are now used to mine Bitcoin. This competition does not have a significant impact on the mining speed, and it is thanks to this mechanism that Bitcoin has become known as “digital gold.” Unlike fiat money, which is subject to inflation due to the constant printing of new ones, Bitcoin does not depreciate in value. This makes it attractive to many because it provides a stable and reliable medium of exchange rather than just paper bills in a wallet. People sincerely believed that the new blockchain technology and Bitcoin in particular would give them complete control over their own finances. With each new miner, Bitcoin gained more trust. However, its limited throughput - just seven transactions per second, while Visa's was 24,000 per second - became a bottleneck. This slowness, although it ensured the stability of Bitcoin, prevented its mass use. As blockchain became understood and widespread, thousands of programmers began looking for ways to improve Bitcoin. In 2011, a former Google employee created a cryptocurrency that was eight times faster, easier to mine, and cheaper to transact - it was Litecoin, the digital silver-to-digital gold equivalent of Bitcoin. However, Litecoin was not the only alternative. In 2012, the Ripple cryptocurrency appeared, which was capable of transferring customer money in a few seconds and almost free of charge, which was a difference from the traditional Swift bank transfer system. Every year more and more new coins and projects appeared, offering various solutions and improvements in the world of cryptocurrencies. Vitalik Buterin truly revolutionized the world of cryptocurrencies. He asked himself: What if we took advantage of the new technology offered by Bitcoin and solved one of the key problems of the economy - the problem of trust? In 2015, he launched the Ethereum project, which proposed the concept of smart contracts. Here's how they work: Imagine you want to buy an apartment. To protect yourself, you go to the bank and open a letter of credit. You deposit money into this account, which the seller will receive only after signing the purchase and sale agreement. The whole process is controlled by the bank, which takes a commission for this. The Ethereum smart contract removes the bank from this transaction. The system itself checks the terms of the contract and, if they are fulfilled, automatically transfers money from your wallet to the seller’s wallet. This happens quickly, cheaply and reliably, without intermediaries and unnecessary commissions. Ethereum has really made it easier to create your own cryptocurrencies. Previously, you had to develop your own blockchain to do this, but now thanks to Ethereum it has become much easier. Ethereum can be called the programming language of the cryptocurrency world because it allows you to create new coins and tokens easily and quickly. As a result of the emergence of Ethereum in 2017, a massive phenomenon occurred - ICO (Initial Coin Offering), when startups issued their coins and tokens to raise capital. This allowed any startup to attract funding without special restrictions and control from the state. The crypto industry began to resemble the golden era of the Internet in the late 90s, when everyone understood that the future belonged to the Internet, and Internet companies grew quickly, like mushrooms after rain. The essence of the ICO is that startups come up with their own project, issue a coin for this project and promise investors a huge increase in the price of this coin (for example, by 1000%). They then raise funds by selling their coins to investors.

 Indeed, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies create two parallel worlds. One world is public money, which is backed and controlled by the government. Another world is private money, which operates on the basis of agreements and technologies between system participants, providing a greater degree of autonomy. Governments find themselves in a difficult situation trying to straddle both sides of the aisle. They do not ban cryptocurrencies, seeing the potential for the future in blockchain technology, but at the same time do not recognize them as official money, since this threatens the foundations of the state economy. Many countries have begun to develop their own national blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, known as central bank digital currencies. Such currencies promise higher levels of transparency and security, since every transaction can be tracked, and smart contracts provide more reliable funds transfers. This process leads to increased government control over financial transactions, but also provides citizens with more convenience and protection. Decentralization, which was originally one of the main features of cryptocurrencies, is now becoming a tool for government regulation. My point is that cryptocurrency is not just a niche means of payment or a risky investment. It represents a new form of financial relations, which is already being actively introduced into everyday life. We are witnessing a historic shift in the financial sector, where digital money is becoming an integral part of our daily lives, just as the Internet became an integral part of our lives in the past.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
Trade Smart with TradingView’s Volume FootprintTradingView has just introduced an innovative feature on their charts known as the Volume Footprint . This tool represents a significant advancement in chart analysis, offering a detailed view of trading activity and volume at specific price levels. Are you interested in gaining an early advantage by becoming one of the initial traders to master this new tool ? • I'm thrilled to share with you a fantastic new feature from TradingView : the Volume Footprint. This powerful charting tool gives us a visual representation of trading volume distribution across various price levels for each candle within a specified timeframe. It's a game-changer, offering deeper insights to help us pinpoint areas of high liquidity and significant trading activity. • The Volume Footprint is available to those with Premium and higher-tier plans. It leverages data from multiple lower timeframes of the current symbol for historical calculations. Initially, it requests 1-second data, and once this is exhausted, it moves to the next higher timeframe. Consequently, as we delve further into history, the requested timeframe increases, which may reduce the accuracy of volume distribution. • This tool determines whether trades are buy volumes or sell volumes by analyzing the direction of price movement. If the current bar closes higher than it opens, it's a buy volume. Conversely, if it closes lower, it's a sell volume. If the close equals the open, the volume direction follows that of the previous bar. • One of the standout features of the Volume Footprint is its ability to identify market balance and imbalance. A balanced market indicates an equilibrium between supply and demand, resulting in stable prices. An imbalanced market, however, shows a significant disparity between supply and demand, leading to pronounced price movements. • The Volume Footprint helps us understand market behavior, such as optimal entry points, potential price movements, and areas where supply and demand are balanced or imbalanced. It's an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment and spotting trading opportunities. • Additionally, the Volume Footprint allows us to identify failed auctions. These occur when there's an unsuccessful attempt to set a new price, resulting in a return to previous price levels. Recognizing failed auctions can help us anticipate market reversals, validate support and resistance levels, and refine our trading strategies to capitalize on shifting market conditions. • Another intriguing feature is Delta divergence, which refers to a discrepancy between price movement and the total delta value. Traders often use delta divergence in footprint charts to signal potential reversals or changes in market direction. • Finally, the Volume Footprint lets us spot excess trades at extreme price levels. According to auction market theory, prices rise until demand dries up and fall until supply is exhausted. This is known as a completed auction. Sometimes, though, an incomplete auction occurs, where the volume of trades at the maximum or minimum price level differs slightly. This may indicate that the trend isn't complete, suggesting that prices might continue moving in the current direction until the auction concludes. • In conclusion, the Volume Footprint is an invaluable tool that provides deep insights into market dynamics and trading opportunities. It's a fantastic addition to any trader’s toolkit, and I can't wait to explore and utilize this feature in my trading journey. Happy trading! Prepared by : Arman Shaban The Source : www.tradingview.com
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
Has the Bitcoin Market Become More Manipulated After ETFs? The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in late 2023 undoubtedly marked a turning point for the cryptocurrency. However, with this institutional influx, concerns regarding increased market manipulation have also surfaced. Let's delve into whether these concerns hold water and what the future might hold for Bitcoin's volatility. Pre-ETF Era: A Wild West of Wash Trading Market manipulation in Bitcoin wasn't exactly a new phenomenon before ETFs. Wash trading, a tactic where investors buy and sell the same asset repeatedly to inflate its trading volume, was a prevalent concern. This created an illusion of high demand, enticing others to invest and driving prices up artificially. Mark Cuban, a prominent crypto investor, even predicted wash trading as the "next possible implosion" for the industry in early 2023 . The Double-Edged Sword of Institutional Investors The arrival of big players with the ETF has undeniably brought more regulation and scrutiny to the market. This, in theory, should deter blatant manipulation tactics. However, the sheer volume these institutions trade with can also influence prices significantly. The question isn't whether they manipulate, but rather how their trading strategies might unintentionally impact market behavior. A Glimpse into the Recent Controversy A recent Wall Street Journal report alleging that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, fired an investigator uncovering market manipulation by a VIP client reignited concerns . This incident highlights the potential conflicts that can arise when profit margins clash with regulatory compliance. So, Has Manipulation Increased? The answer is complex. While blatant wash trading might be less prevalent, the impact of institutional trading volume and potential conflicts within exchanges are new considerations. It's likely that the nature of manipulation has evolved, becoming more subtle and potentially harder to detect. A Future of Stability or Stagnation? The influx of institutional investors could indeed lead to a more stable Bitcoin market, mirroring traditional stock indices. This would be a far cry from the explosive, volatile growth Bitcoin has seen in the past. However, this stability might also come at the cost of reduced returns for investors hoping for another Bitcoin boom. The Long Hodler's Perspective As a large language model, I can't claim to be a "hodler" (long-term Bitcoin holder). However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of regulation and scrutiny before. The key takeaway is that despite potential manipulation, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its core value proposition as a decentralized currency still hold significant appeal. The Road Ahead The future of Bitcoin manipulation hinges on two key factors: 1. Regulatory Strength: Stronger regulations with clear guidelines and robust enforcement mechanisms are crucial to deter future manipulation attempts. 2. Transparency on Exchanges: Exchanges need to be more transparent about their trading practices and address potential conflicts of interest. Conclusion Whether Bitcoin morphs into a stable, institutionalized asset or maintains its volatile character remains to be seen. However, the fight against manipulation, regardless of its form, will be critical in ensuring a fair and healthy Bitcoin market for all participants.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by bryandowningqln
1
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Deciphering the DistinctionsCryptocurrencies have revolutionized the financial landscape, with Bitcoin and Ethereum emerging as two prominent players shaping the digital economy. Despite sharing the common ground of blockchain technology, each offers distinct features and functionalities, underscoring the need to understand their differences. Introduction to Bitcoin Bitcoin, introduced in 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, heralded the dawn of decentralized digital currencies. Its primary objective was to provide an alternative to traditional fiat currencies through a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are verified and recorded on an immutable public ledger, known as the blockchain. Introduction to Ethereum In 2015, Vitalik Buterin introduced Ethereum, presenting a paradigm shift beyond mere digital currency. Ethereum serves as an open-source platform for executing smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) without intermediaries. At its core is Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency powering transactions and fueling the ecosystem. Core Differences Purpose: Bitcoin functions primarily as a digital currency, aiming to revolutionize financial transactions. Ethereum, on the other hand, is a versatile platform enabling the execution of smart contracts and DApps, with broader implications for decentralization beyond monetary exchange. Technology: Bitcoin operates on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, requiring significant computational power for transaction validation. Ethereum initially adopted PoW but is transitioning to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0, offering improved scalability and energy efficiency. Scalability: Bitcoin processes approximately 7 transactions per second, while Ethereum can handle up to 30. Both face scalability challenges, with Ethereum exploring solutions like sharding to enhance throughput and efficiency. Supply: Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, creating scarcity akin to digital gold. In contrast, Ethereum does not have a predefined supply limit, potentially allowing for continuous production, albeit with economic implications. Use Cases: Bitcoin is synonymous with a store of value, often likened to digital gold due to its limited supply and scarcity. Ethereum's versatility enables the creation of innovative applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and more, expanding its utility beyond monetary transactions. Price Dynamics Bitcoin's market movements often dictate the broader cryptocurrency landscape, impacting the prices of assets like Ethereum. Influencing factors include market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Ethereum's price dynamics are further influenced by platform upgrades, developer activity, and the burgeoning demand for decentralized applications. Monthly Bitcoin Chart Monthly Ethereum Chart Conclusion While Bitcoin and Ethereum share the foundation of blockchain technology, their purposes, technologies, and applications diverge significantly. Bitcoin seeks to redefine monetary exchange, while Ethereum aims to revolutionize contractual agreements and decentralized applications. Understanding these distinctions is paramount in navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets and harnessing their transformative potential in the global economy.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
6
Miners' Bitcoin Holdings Decrease While Value in USD IncreasesWhile the amount of Bitcoin in miners' hands continues to decrease, its value against the dollar is increasing. Miners' Bitcoin Reserves: In 2019, Bitcoin miners held approximately 2.9 million Bitcoin.This number has been steadily decreasing since then. As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (source: intotheblock). Value of Miners' Bitcoin Reserves: In nominal terms, the amount of BTC they hold has decreased. However, in terms of value, it has reached the 2021 level again. To illustrate: On April 5, 2021, miners held 2.37 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $142 billion. As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (worth approximately $129 billion). Conclusion: After the halving, we can expect miners' reserves to decrease (also to meet the increasing demand). However, this is not a scary situation. I expect the dollar value of Bitcoin in miners' hands to exceed the previous all-time high in the near future. The reason for this is that the "realised price" (approximately the cost) of Bitcoin will increase after the halving. Overall, this is a data point that we should regularly check to better understand the bull cycle. TradingView code for tracking the data: BTC_MINERRESERVESUSD BTC_MINERRESERVES Thanks for reading.
INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MINERRESERVESUSDEducation
by burakkesmeci
Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics. The Halving Mechanics At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140. As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted: “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.” Impact on Price Dynamics Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%. The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance, To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving. This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price. Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery. Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward. Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving. A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article). Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure. Impact on Miners The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation. The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities. The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough. In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices. Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole. As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals. The rise of Ordinals The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving. Long Term Outlook Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value. Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:MBT1!Education
by CME_Group
9