Bitcoin | Ascending Channel & EMA50..!!#BTC (Update)
Bitcoin Has been Moving Between 8.4k-10k Range from last 36 Days. (forming Ascending Channel)
At the Moment, holding the Channel Middle line (9.6k Support) & EMA50 (9464)
Now, there Are two Possible Scenarios..!!
- In Bearish Case, If Bulls lost the Support, It Might Retest the 8.8k Area Support.
- In Bullish Case, It Might test the Major Resistance (10k Area) Again, In Case of Rejection, There is a Possibility of Triple Top Formation 📉
Bitcoin CME Future Closed at 9800..!!
Expanding Triangle Formation..!!
According to Expanding Triangle, Big Move Ahead (Higher High or Lower Low)
In Weekly Chart. Bitcoin Facing Longterm Downtrend line...!!
In Weekly Candle Closed Below 9.6k or Trendline, Expecting Bearish Wave for Midterm.
In Case of Trendline Breakout, There is a Possibility of Bitcoin Bull Run in Coming Days..!!|
Waiting for Weekly Close 😎
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Bitcoin : Fibonacci and the perspective in 1 hour time frame.Hello all, Happy Saturday! Today I want to cover about today's potential volatility that could occur in the market. Now, let's do the technical analysis.
Whenever it comes to the weekend, usually the price will have an extra volatility due to the closes on the CME daily candle in the next 2 days and a potential addition volume from the retail traders. With this potential of much volatility, there will be a lot of faking out moves in the market as well. Wick fishing, squeeze are those thing that usually occur between Saturday and Sunday.
Now let's look at the RSI as one of my favorite volume indicator which in the lower time frame is now breaching the lower limit of the neutral zone and entering the bearish zone as well. I'm pretty sure that the bears will try to push the price lower to make the RSI trends at the oversold region. Similar action at the MACD histogram too, both the histogram and the trend lines are trending slight below the 0 level.
Based on the price action, the above statement is in align with the potential correction to the golden pocket zone which has the confluence with the previous broken resistance trend line of the contracting triangle (around $9400). In this case, I will assume a bounce after the price touches this region because this support region is the strong level for intraday level. I will expect the price bounces and head back to the interim swing high which is having an alignment with the -.618 fibonacci retracement as the ideal short term target as well.
Huge volatility incoming, just be cautious!
Why not to trade/scalp with a high leverage?Why not to trade with a high leverage?
We, scalpers, usually trade with leverage, because our gain from an individual trade is small but only accumulates in a period of time if we re-invest after each trade.
Because of our tendency/ human nature we tend to focus on profits but in the long term it is our losses who determine our success.
Our losses are mainly through stoplosses or liquidations. From this point on, I would like to give examples from my trading strategy.
I always recommend in my published ideas, not to trade with a high leverage.
Here is a basic calculation to show you why I recommend low leverage trading.
In my Trades, the main target is what I call "exit2" which is around 1% change in the direction that we wished for. Sometimes "shit happens" and we crash the stoploss (I will use 2% change as an example).
How many succesful Trades (%1) do we have to manage to overcome a loss by a stoploss (2%)?
That is really different by each leverage.
-By 3x leverage you have to trade around 2.22 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 5x leverage you have to trade around 2.37 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 10x leverage you have to trade around 2.485 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 15x leverage you have to trade around 2.62 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 20x leverage you have to trade around 2.87 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
-By 25x leverage you have to trade around 3.15 times to overcome the loss of a stoploss.
As you can see, with an increasing amount of leverage you have to be more successful to even break even.
I would say it is Ok to scalp with a leverage of max. 10x, but I would definitely recommend not to scalp/ trade with a leverage higher than that.
Bitcoin | Expanding Triangle & Crucial Support..!!#BTC (Update)
In Shorter Timeframe, Bitcoin Forming Expanding triangle Pattern...!!
3 Days ago, Bitcoin tested the 10.4k Resistance (Higher High) but Rejected it.
At the Moment, Holding the Crucial Support (9.3k) But Big Move Ahead.
Now There Are Two Possible Scenarios..
1- If Bulls lost the Support, Bitcoin might form Another Low (Might test 8k Area)
2- In Bullish Case, If Bulls Held the Support & Bounced Back 📈 , It Might Test the 10.6k Area (Major Resistance)
Be Ready for Both Bearish & Bullish Scenarios..📌
In Weekly Chart, Printing 9th TD Bearish Candle & Still Below the Major Downtrend Resistance 📉
If weekly Candle Closed Below trendline, Bitcoin Might Crash Again in Coming Days..!!
Another Weekly View...!!
Expecting Bearish Wave before Triangle Breakout... (6666 then 19191)
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Bitcoin - The Ugly Truth About Crypto and Unregulated MarketsFirst, I would like to say that I am a believer in Bitcoin. A quick summary of my belief, Bitcoin is like the English language. Not perfect and has many flaws, and I'm sure anyone can create a better language if given enough time, but Bitcoin is the language everyone in Crypto talks and it will be hard to dethrone the king. Bitcoin is enough, even if the cost to transfer it goes to $100+, it still serves the main purpose of crypto which is the ability to transfer medium/large sums of money without borders or regulation to anyone that accepts Bitcoin. No one can tell you no. It is not ideal for small purchases such as coffee, but fiat is all anyone needs for small purchases and there is absolutely no point for small shops to accept crypto currency as a form of payment. Sorry BCH believers, you have a better coin, a better language, but it's not enough reason to switch.
However, it's the Bitcoin / Crypto markets that are corrupt. They are not regulated, which many see as a good thing, but it is absolutely the worst thing that can happen to crypto. Unregulated exchanges mean unlimited supply of Bitcoin. Exchanges, depending on their jurisdiction, are allowed to sell Bitcoin they don't even have. For American and other common wealth country based exchanges, this is still fraud and illegal, but in countries like Hong Kong and small safe haven islands, it's completely legal and no one can do anything about it.
On top of that, exchanges like Bitmex don't even claim to have Bitcoin, they let people buy and sell contracts on their exchange that are not backed by Bitcoin. Future contracts are the same, they are not settled in Bitcoin, they are settled in fiat.
So with an unlimited supply of Bitcoin on the market, every exchange in a safe haven jurisdiction is like the federal reserve in America, they can print paper Bitcoin whenever they want and on one knows how much fake un-backed Bitcoin is being traded.
Something to take into consideration when trading Bitcoin and betting long term on the price.
LOG Long Term Trendline SupportWe can see the long term support forming a channel with the overhead support from 20k ATH. We can see how a BIG MOVE IS SETTING UP...ON or before AUGUST 27th 2020.
Brian Brooks is having fun making the new crypto dollar everyone is expecting.
Your dollars are just digits on a screen...unless a blockchain application creates a new transparent world.
Imagine knowing exactly how many dollars there are!
Don't worry... Privacy coins still exist... but YOUR AMERICAN EXPRESS CARD tracks you anyways evertime you swipe...lol
Just wait until AMERICAN EXPRESS releases the BITCOIN REWARDS CARD!
welcome to the roaring 20s...
just need to destroy the swamp first...
enjoy.
Bitcoin 4h Double TopMy first public analysis
The Double Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on charts. The pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough between. The slowing may be evidenced through a lagging peak on an oscillator like RSI
I am not sure but the price should get to my target
$MATIC : Possible Cat Ears Pattern; a small study.Possible Cat Ears pattern, note that i said possible.
A cat ears pattern is found after a downtrend and consists of two "ears" which you can see above. Its a downtrend continuation pattern but it has a HIGH FAILURE RATE which means you are probably better off looking for long setups on it.
A cat ears pattern has 6 variations, follow the link here and you can see for yourself on Thomas Bulkowskis website:
(Look at the picture with 6 variations, example #3)
www.thepatternsite.com
One variation is as follows:
-Downtrend
-Sideways trading
-Spike one (1st ear, higher)
-Sideways trading
-Spike two (2nd ear, lower)
We are in the middle of spike two, its currently trying to hold the 0.618 fib as support, BUT if this does not hold and we come down to the outlined breakout level then we can see a rejection or breakout of the car ears pattern.
So we watch, if it comes down to the bottom breakout level, it can fakeout below the support then close above, breaking the diagnol downtrend resistance line. Or the pattern plays out, but altcoins are looking quite good atm so i doubt that, Theres a chance we dont even come down to finish painting the 2nd ear and go from here.
This idea is pure theoritcal and im only posting it to backtrack on later to see if we complete the pattern and how it does play out.
BITCOIN | BullRun 2020 Ahead..!!BTC/USD (Update)
In Weekly Chart, Bulls Facing Crucial Resistance (9.6k)
If Bulls Cleared the Resistance, Expecting Bitcoin Bullrun in Coming Weeks.📈
If Bulls Failed to Clear the Resistance, Bitcoin Might Retest the 6k Area in Late June..!!
Volume has been Decreasing from last 4-5 Weeks, While Bulls Need Power to Clear the Resistance.
I think Bitcoin Might form another Lower High before Breakout. (But We Should Wait for Clear Direction, So far There is no Sign of Breakout or Reversal)
In Weekly Chart, Bitcoin Printing 9th TD Bearish Candle & Facing Major Resistance as well..!!
If Current Weekly Candle Closed Below Resistance (9.6k), We Might See Bearish Wave in Coming Days.
In Shorter Timeframe Chart, Bitcoin has been forming Triangle But Not Completed yet, Expecting Tiny Bearish Wave towards the 9k before Breakout..!!
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Goldman Sachs is right! About BITCOINBitcoin has no intrinsic value but they forgot about Fiat which is the same shit. An intrinsic value asset example it’s gold. If you are not trading gold for goods and services it has value as it is ,using it for jewelry’s or circuits and so on. same thing with oil and other stuff. But the fact that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value doesn’t mean that Bitcoin has no value at all like Fiat everything that we believe has value Will pretty much have...as long as we believe it.
Also I do not think Bitcoin is undervalued, The value of bitcoin it’s exactly the current price but this does not mean that tomorrow will not be 0. Comment below what do you think?
Financial Engineering on BitcoinOkay, here is a strategy to make more money using leverage, while at the same time risking less money, because your hedging your position with options. In other words, make more risking less.
But let’s put things into perspective. Option A: You buy Bitcoin at current price, $9,400 USD. If it raises to $20,000, as many expect, you make $10,600 USD or 112.77%. And if it drops to $6,500 USD, as some expect, you’ll lose $2,900 USD or 30.85%.
Here is option B:
And for that you will need an account in FTX: ftx.com
You buy $7,316.5 USD worth of BULLUSD tokens, ftx.com ,which currently trades at about $3,199 USD. Those BULLUSD tokens will pay you 3X the daily return you will get in BTCUSD, and they will compound it daily, so you may end up making more than a 3X return. Here is a video that explains it: www.youtube.com
And you also buy, as a hedge, right there on FTX, 2 BTC Put Options, with strike price of $9,400, and Expiration date of June 30, 2020, which should cover 2 BTC, at a cost of $1,041.75 x 2 = $2,083.5 USD.
In total, you would have invested the same amount as in option A.
Now let’s assume some scenarios, let’s say Bitcoin drops to $6,500 as some expect, in the first option you will lose 30.85%.
In the second option, those BTC Put Options would be worth $5,800 USD (($9,400-$6,500)x2), the BULLUSD tokens would probably had lost 60% of their value, but the other 40% would be worth $2,929.6 USD + $5,800 USD = $8,726.6 USD. Your loss would only be $673.4 USD or 7.16%, instead of 30.85%.
Now, let’s assume another scenario, let’s say Bitcoin jumps to $20,000 as some expect. In option A you would have made $10,600 USD or 112.77%.
In option B, your options would have expired worthless, but the 3x leverage tokes would have given you about a 400% return. 3X 112.77% plus a little more because of the daily capitalization.
So, the $7,316.5 investment in BULLUSD, would have grow to $36,582.5 USD, giving you a $27,182.5 return, minus the $9,400 USD, or 289% return. About 2.56 times more with less risk.
The worst-case scenario would be if the price stays flat, because you will lose the option premium and the BULLUSD tokens could deteriorate a little bite. So, you will probably end up loosing $2,400 USD in the worst-case scenario, about 25.5%.
Seeming that Bitcoin is close to break a triangle pattern, as shown on the chart, chances are it will move out of it way before June 30, 2020.
I hope you find this interesting and good luck to you.
$BTC : Dominance chart, why its useful?The BTC.D Chart shows the total % of the Cryptocurrency market cap that BTC holds, why is this important?
When BTC Dominance rises, that means money is flooding out of altcoins and into bitcoin, usually in highly volatile times.
When BTC Dominance consolidates its a sign that money is moving is flowing between the altcoin and bitcoin markets and this is the best time for you to be trading altcoins.
Some things to note about the BTC Dominance now on the weekly:
-Strong uptrend (Parallel channel and painting flag structures)
-Possible elliot wave structure, we still have 1 wave left
-RSI Above 50, but turning down
-Still creating higher lows on the smaller and higher timeframe trends
-Flipped resistance right next to a golden fib
-Double bottom pattern
All these bullish signs are dangerous for alts, if it closes above 70 i would beware.
But on the positive sign:
-Many alts are positive lately, showing higher lowers and are very close to nice bounce areas like orderblocks/golden fibs
-We are consolidating with a slight downwards angle
-We just had a small pump and wicked down instantly off the OB/0.5 fib could be a earlier sign of rejection
-The pump was a breakout of the double bottom pattern but we are back under the neckline now, if we start to consolidate above it or bearish retest under it maybe alts can get some love
-Daily RSI is under 50
So pay attention and understand that if BTC moves up your alt trades will quickly go under, if it continues to dump off a bit and consolidate then alts can get some love!
Click onto my main profile for 4 current altcoin ideas:
RVN QNT XTZ ICX
Educational ... Gann FanGann fan .. one of frequently used tools trading almost every single equity in the market .
it can give you a clue on CIT (change in trend) which is a marvelous way to have the trend from it's beginning .
and as you can see it also acts as supports and resistance ... off course in conjunction with other methods .. but sometimes i can only rely on this tool.
not to mention that it can act as a classical trend even before it's beginning ..
if you think you like this pieces of information .. tell me in the comments and i'll try posting them more ..
don't forget to press the like button.. your support is appreciated TIA
Bitcoin Dominance, worth to seeIt's been several weeks that I don't cover the analysis of bitcoin dominance. Currently the bitcoin dominance is still trending at its neutral zone which is around 67% level which leave it unbiased. With the chart applied, we can easily deduce that the up trend channel is the crucial factor that hold the dominance as well. Dominance has showed us 2 attempts of breaking down the lower line of the channel since February 2020 but both attempts ended up with a bounce, a good bounce.
Just like what we've seen here, the bounce from the lower trend line however is a good thing for bitcoin itself. Yes, bitcoin is having the positive correlation with the movement of bitcoin dominance. The mechanism of money inflow and increasing degree of trust on bitcoin makes the positive sentiment occur on bitcoin itself.
Even though it's good for bitcoin, but it's clearly become a hard time for Altcoins market. A money inflow in bitcoin means money outflow for Altcoins, which potentially the blood bath will occur on Altcoin market especially with btc pair.
For short term, due to a combination of higher high and higher low pattern, I'll expect a spike of dominance to higher level maybe around the 70% level. But, to reach the ideal equilibrium in the market, I will still projected the long term drop of the bitcoin dominance to breaks below the lower line of the channel to back to 50% dominance again.
$BTC : CME Gaps on Bitcoin.This chart is just to reflect on later/view to identify the current gaps on the Bitcoim CME chart.
But why is this important?
CME, as a multi-billion dollar derivatives company, has no incentive to push for Bitcoin options and other investment vehicles if there simply is no traction or demand from the market. As the company’s executive Tim McCourt said, CME’s Bitcoin futures market facilitated around $270 million per day:
“We’re pleased our CME Bitcoin futures have rapidly evolved over the last two years to become one of the most liquid, listed Bitcoin derivatives products in the world, averaging nearly 6,400 contracts (equivalent to 31,850 Bitcoin) traded each day in 2019.”