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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Mastering Bitcoin #1In this quick but educational video we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements using popular technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands, Elliott Wave Theory, Triple Moving Average, and Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI. Learn how these few indicators can help predict what might be ahead for Bitcoin based on current data. I'm gonna make this into a habit, creating short, educational videos, so expect more of this insightful, bite-sized content going forward.
Education
by Candle_Styx
Double Bottom Pattern: Bitcoin Total Domination Last week my post on Bitcoin dominance played out faster than it was expected. (see related) This indicator broke out into 60-70% area. So, I switched to a weekly time frame and spotted a classic reversal pattern called "Double Bottom" in the making for you. Let's break it down. We have two bottoms highlighted with yellow arcs in the same area. Indicator eyes the middle top between bottoms, it is called "Neckline" Now, let's breakdown buying technique: 1) buy entry is at the breakout above Neckline (green dashed line) 2) stop loss is at the valley of the right bottom (red dashed line) 3) target is located at the depth of the right bottom from the Neckline. in our case it can't be higher than 100% and is set at the maximum (blue dashed line) Its amazing that technical analysis could predict things that out of our scope as yet.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by aibek
3
What I think trading is... Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- Thank you @TradingBrokersView for the great article. 🚨 Bitcoin update! 🚨 BTC rejected at MA50 (4h) inside a Channel Down pattern. If history repeats, we could see a Lower Low at 95K (-10.7%), aligning with MA100 (1d) support. RSI (4h) is confirming bearish momentum. 🔥 Trading Plan: Sell now before further downside! I was thinking about how to say it, and I came up with this idea. Thank you again. ------------------------------------ #BTCUSDT 1M As shown in the chart, it has risen a lot, so it is natural to feel downward pressure. No one knows how big this downward pressure will be. However, what I can tell you is the flow of funds. To see a more detailed flow, you need to look at the gap occurrence status on the 1D chart, but when looking at the overall flow of funds, it is true that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market. Selling all of this inflow of funds means that you will not be able to overcome the volatility in the upcoming bull market and will rather increase the probability of suffering losses. The reason is that the average purchase price is likely to be set too high and is likely to be located in the volatility range. Therefore, you need to respond according to your investment style. In other words, if your investment style is one that wants to trade quickly and urgently, a strategy that sells whenever it shows signs of falling would be appropriate to gain profits. If not, if you have a longer-term outlook or trade mainly in spot transactions, I think it would be better to leave coins (tokens) corresponding to profits rather than selling all of them so that you can more easily purchase them in the future bull market. Leaving a coin (token) corresponding to the profit means a coin (token) with a purchase principal of 0. In other words, it means that when the price rises after purchase, the purchase principal is sold. In that sense, when looking at the BTCUSDT 1M chart, you can see that the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) is a very important support and resistance area. #BTCUSDT 1D This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31. Therefore, it is expected that the key will be whether there is support near 101947.24 after this volatility period. If it falls without support near 101947.24, it is expected that the trend will be determined again by touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. If you have been reading my ideas, you will understand that you should not try to create a trading strategy by analyzing charts. As I mentioned earlier, you should create a trading strategy that suits your investment style with the information obtained from chart analysis. That is why the opinion that it will fall now and sell everything can be interpreted differently by different people, so you need to be careful. Some people are currently making profits and others are losing money. Those who are making profits will have the luxury of waiting even if the price falls, and those who are losing money may be suffering from psychological pressure. The information I am giving you is to provide information on how to respond to all of these people. In that sense, you need to focus on the price that I am talking about, that is, the support and resistance points or sections. If your average purchase price is below the support and resistance points or sections that I am talking about, you can check the downward trend and intensity and judge the situation. If not, you need to create a response strategy based on how much cash you currently have. If your current cash holding is less than 20% of your total investment and you feel unstable psychologically, it is a good idea to sell some of it to secure cash. This will allow you to secure the ability to purchase more even if the price falls, so you will be able to secure a certain level of psychological stability even if the price falls. I think trading is about responding to your investment style and psychological state in this way. Therefore, you should calmly look at your current psychological state, check your cash holdings, and create a response strategy that suits your investment style. This is the strategy I can tell you. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Bitcoin correction inevitableTime to Chart the King! If you've checked my recent ideas, you'll find onefrom 11 December 2022 titled "Run it Back Turbo." Check it out! Press the play button to see how I've pinpointed the perfect bottom! Now, let's dive into why I've decided to close my trade: Wave Count: I've marked the 5 waves we've seen so far. Wave Comparison: Using the Date & Price Range tool, I've compared the size of wave 3 to wave 5. Wave 5 typically matches or exceeds wave 3, and you can see the King has done just that. How much more do you need to satisfy your greed? ABC Correction: We're expecting an ABC correction where: A Wave: Should hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level drawn from the bottom of the count to the current wave 5 peak. B Wave: Logically, this would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci level. C Wave: Expected to extend to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Fibonacci Retracement for Wave 5: If you draw a Fibonacci retracement just for the 5th wave, you'll see: The A wave should touch the 0.618 level of this measurement. The B wave goes to the 0.382 The C wave, as usual, should retrace fully to the 1.000 Fib level, where it began. CME Gap: Check out the 1-day chart below to see there's still a CME gap to fill on the way down. Monthly Close: We're nearing the first monthly close of Q1. Take a look at the RSI; there's a clear bearish divergence forming. Liquidity Clusters: The liquidity clusters below look enticing and are prime for grabs, essential for further upward movements. Remember, this market thrives on the ping-pong effect with short stop hunts and liquidation hunts, followed by the same to the longs, rinse and repeat. Here you see a freshly pulled LiqMap from The Kingfisher platform currently the only one I know of which can show you these clusters. As you can see we have a ton of liquidity to tap into before we can resume this bullrun! Conclusion: The King Needs to Reset! No reason to be upset. Everyone needs a rest after such a run. We will resume our journey soon enough, reaching those higher targets sooner or later. See the bright side: we can sell now, load up at cheaper prices, and potentially make even bigger profits. Follow me for updates to this idea and follow me on X for even more insights!
CME:BTC1!Education
by Candle_Styx
1
Recency Bias: Your Brain’s Worst Trade Idea Ever!Let’s face it: your brain is out to sabotage your trading, and recency bias is its weapon of choice. This sneaky psychological gremlin convinces you that your last few trades—good or bad—are all that matter. But spoiler alert: they’re not. 🎲 What is Recency Bias? Recency bias is your brain’s tendency to overvalue recent events and ignore the bigger picture. Three wins in a row? You’re invincible, right? WRONG. Three losses? Time to ditch your strategy? ALSO WRONG. The market doesn’t care about your streak—it plays the long game, and so should you. 💀 How It Destroys You 1️⃣ Winning Streak Confidence: After a few wins, you start upping your risk like you’re Warren Buffet. Then BAM—one loss wipes you out. 2️⃣ Losing Streak Paralysis: A few losses, and suddenly you’re too scared to pull the trigger, even on solid setups. 3️⃣ Revenge Trading: The currency pair that burned you? Oh, you’ll “get it back,” right? Nope. You’ll just lose more. 🛡️ How to Beat It 1️⃣ Reset Daily: Clear your head before every session. Meditate, walk, scream into a pillow—whatever works. 2️⃣ Stick to Your Plan: Your strategy works because it’s tested, not because your emotions say so. 3️⃣ Journal Everything: Spot your patterns before they wreck you. 4️⃣ Manage Risk: Winning or losing streaks shouldn’t change your position size. Period. 5️⃣ Check Your Ego: The market isn’t out to get you. It doesn’t even know you exist. 🧠 Final Words Recency bias is a sneaky little troll, but with self-awareness and discipline, you can shut it down. Remember: your last trade doesn’t define you—your consistency does. Now stop letting your brain gaslight you and go trade like the pro you were meant to be. 🚀
Education
by RoadToAMillionClub
All-In is for Poker: Why Reckless Risks Will Wreck You!Let me ask you something: when did “winging it” become a trading strategy? Because if you’re going all-in on trades like you’re sitting at a poker table, I’ve got news for you—you’re not trading. You’re gambling. And the market? It’s not your Vegas playground. It’s the ultimate battleground. 🛡️📉 The “all-in” mentality might feel bold, even exhilarating, but here’s the harsh reality: it’s a financial death wish. It’s a shortcut to blowing your account faster than you can say, “I should’ve stuck to my plan.” Trading is a game of strategy, discipline, and survival—not a coin flip for adrenaline junkies. 🚨 The Reality Check No One Wants to Hear The market isn’t your buddy. It doesn’t cheer for you, it doesn’t care about your hunches, and it sure as hell doesn’t reward recklessness. Think of it like a silent predator, waiting for you to make a dumb move. And trust me, “all-in” is the dumbest move of all. Why? Because trading isn’t about swinging for the fences. It’s about consistency. It’s about risk management. It’s about staying in the game long enough to win. You can’t do that when you’re betting the farm on every trade. The pros understand this. They play the probabilities. They protect their capital like their life depends on it—because in this game, it does. Meanwhile, the all-in gamblers? They’re the ones crying on Reddit about how the market is rigged. Spoiler: it’s not. They just suck at trading. Join Our Discord: edge.forex 🎯 The Smart Trader’s Mindset So, how do you avoid the gambler’s trap? Simple: treat trading like the skill game it is. Here’s the cheat code: 1️⃣ Risk Like a Pro: Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade. If that sounds boring, good. Trading isn’t supposed to be exciting. 2️⃣ Plan It Out: Every trade needs a game plan. Where are you entering? Exiting? What’s your stop-loss? If you don’t know, don’t trade. 3️⃣ Detach Your Ego: You’re not a genius. You’re not a wizard. You’re a trader, and the market doesn’t care about your feelings. Stay humble, or the market will humble you. 4️⃣ Play the Long Game: This isn’t about hitting a home run. It’s about grinding out consistent wins. Small victories compound over time. Big risks blow up your account. 🧠 Master the Game or Get Played Here’s the takeaway: the market rewards discipline, not drama. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. And if you’re out here treating it like a casino, don’t be surprised when you walk away broke. Trading is a skill. It’s a craft. And like any craft, it requires patience, practice, and a willingness to learn. So, ditch the gambler’s mindset and start thinking like a strategist. Your future self—and your bank account—will thank you. 🔥 Over to You What’s the riskiest trade you’ve ever made? Did it pay off, or did it blow up in your face? Drop your war stories in the comments below—I want to hear about your wins, your losses, and the lessons you’ve learned along the way. Let’s trade smarter, not harder. 💬 And hey, if this post slapped some sense into you (or someone you know), share it. Let’s save a few accounts before they go all-in on another “sure thing.” 🙄 Remember: the market doesn’t play games, so neither should you. Play smart. Stay sharp. 🦾
Education
by RoadToAMillionClub
1
Bitcoin: Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern In The Making Tradingview offers simply the best instruments for charting. We have special charting tools to highlight famous Head & Shoulders reversal pattern (in yellow). I spotted this textbook pattern today and would like to share this educational post with you. It was shaped by three peaks with the highest (Head) in the middle. The Right Shoulder reached its climax right at the top of the Left Shoulder. It makes the pattern more symmetric. There is a Neckline that intersects both valleys of the Head. Its a reversal pattern and the trigger is located at the Neckline under the Right Shoulder around $91.7k. The target is measured subtracting the height of the Head from the trigger point. It was highlighted in the chart at $75k. The collapse could be painful. This might prove the old traders saying "buy rumors (Tramp promises), sell facts (reality)" for Bitcoin.
Education
by aibek
6
Checkmate: Winging it is for birds, not traders♟️ Master the market with strategy, foresight, and just the right amount of sass. Alright, traders, let’s talk. What do chess grandmasters and top traders have in common? No, it’s not their love of mismatched socks or coffee strong enough to revive the dead ☕. It’s their ability to think three moves ahead while the rest of the world stares at the board wondering, “Is this checkers?” ♟️ Your Gut Isn’t Garry Kasparov In chess, a grandmaster doesn’t move a piece without thinking of how it’ll play out in the next ten moves. And you? Clicking Buy because your “gut” said so isn’t exactly a strategy. Unless your gut has a PhD in market analysis, maybe sit this one out and plan. Remember: sometimes you’ve gotta let a pawn (aka small loss) go to protect the king (aka your account). But nope, most traders are out here clinging to losing trades like they’re in a Nicholas Sparks movie. Spoiler alert: this isn’t a love story – it’s an iceberg. 🧊🚢 🤔 Hope Isn’t a Strategy Chess players anticipate every possible move. You, on the other hand, need to stop vibing your way through trades. 🌈 ✔️ Got a plan if the market tanks? ✔️ Got a plan if it spikes? ✔️ Got snacks for when both happen? 🍿 If you’re trading without a stop-loss, you’re basically playing chess blindfolded and hoping for the best. Bold, but not smart. 🧠 Don’t Let Your Brain Sabotage You Biggest opponent in trading? It’s you. That little voice whispering, “Double down, it’ll recover!” or “Stop-losses are for wimps.” That’s not strategy – it’s sabotage. 🎭 Learn to chill. Emotional moves in chess = disaster. Emotional trades in the market? Same thing, but with fewer pawns and way more pain. 🔑 Discipline = Winning Grandmasters aren’t magic. They’re disciplined. They put in the hours, study patterns, and show up every day. Traders? Same deal. Forget the mythical “perfect strategy.” It’s your discipline to execute that makes the difference. So, stop chasing meme stocks and remember: the market is your chessboard. Plan your moves, think ahead, and for the love of all things caffeinated, stop clinging to bad trades. 🖤
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by RoadToAMillionClub
How to Analyze a Stock ? Key Questions to Ask Before You InvestShould I invest in this stock ? This is a common question investors face many times But where do you begin? What should you look for, and what pitfalls should you avoid? This guide will walk you through the essential steps to analyze a stock, focusing on the business itself rather than the stock chart. Since earnings per share (EPS) growth drives returns, it’s crucial to understand how revenue growth and margin expansion contribute over time. Before buying any stock, ask yourself these six critical questions: 1.Company: What does the business do? 2.Economics: How does it generate revenue? 3.Opportunities: What are the potential upsides? 4.Risks: What challenges could it face? 5.Financials: What do the numbers reveal? 6.Valuation: Is the price justified? 1.What’s the Business? - Mission: A clear mission drives long-term success. For example, Google’s mission, “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful,” is simple yet powerful. Does the company’s mission align with a growing trend or an unmet need? - Leadership: Effective leadership, especially from founder-led teams or CEOs with a strong track record, often outperforms. Assess the team’s vision, execution skills, and employee approval ratings. - Products: Are the company’s offerings essential, innovative, or part of a growing market? Consider their uniqueness, potential obsolescence, and innovation history. 2.How Do They Make Money? - Revenue Mix: Is the company’s revenue diversified or reliant on a single product or customer? A diverse mix offers stability, while over-reliance can be risky. - Unit Economics: Examine profitability metrics like gross margin and operating margin. Where does the bulk of profit come from? - Key Metrics: Identify metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) for subscriptions or gross merchandise value (GMV) for e-commerce that best reflect the company’s performance trends. 3.What Could Go Right? - Market Growth: Does the company operate in a growing industry, such as AI or renewable energy? -Innovation: Look for ongoing R&D and a track record of successful product launches. -Moat Expansion: Assess the company’s competitive advantage, whether it’s a strong brand, proprietary technology, or cost leadership. 4. What Could Go Wrong? -Market Disruption: Is the company prepared for sudden changes, like new technologies or regulations? -Competition: Strong rivals can erode market share. Analyze customer reviews and competitor benchmarks. - Moat Erosion: A shrinking competitive edge—such as declining pricing power or poor retention—can signal trouble. 5.What Do the Numbers Say? - Profitability: Check revenue growth, gross margins, and net income for consistent improvements. - Solvency: Assess the balance sheet for debt-to-equity ratios, cash reserves, and financial stability. - Liquidity: Positive and consistent cash flow indicates sustainability and growth potential. 6.Is the Price Right? - Valuation Metrics: Use Price to Earnings (P/E), Price to Sales (P/S), or other relevant metrics depending on the company’s growth stage. Compare these to peers and market standards. -Investment Horizon: Longer investment timelines can justify higher valuations if growth potential exists. -Focus on Fundamentals: Valuation matters only if the business is strong. Avoid being tempted by low prices without underlying value. By breaking a company into these six dimensions, you can turn complex decisions into actionable insights. Start with the business fundamentals, evaluate opportunities and risks, and finish by assessing valuation. What stock will you analyze next? Let’s put this framework into action now
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by moonypto
Market Analysis: How to. Execute This Trade // MSTRNASDAQ:MSTR Over the past 2-3 months, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) has shown significant growth, primarily driven by the rise in Bitcoin’s value. The company holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which strongly influences its stock price performance. Key Highlights: 1. Stock Performance: • As of now, MSTR trades at $379.09, reflecting a notable increase over recent months. • Its strong performance correlates with the upward trend in Bitcoin prices. 2. Technical Analysis: • The stock recently broke out of a rectangle pattern, signaling a potential rise toward the $525 level. • However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. 3. Analyst Opinions: • Analysts remain optimistic, with a consensus of “Buy” or “Overweight.” • The average price target is above the current trading level, pointing to further upside potential. Considerations: While MSTR has been performing robustly, it’s important to note the volatility associated with its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. Investors should weigh the risks tied to both the stock and the broader cryptocurrency market. How to execute this trade: We notice how the upward trend seems to have temporarily stopped, giving way to a bearish phase. The stock remains highly overvalued and very volatile, so a drop of 40–50% does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal but simply a pause in a bull run that has been ongoing since 2022! On November 11, the stock experienced a rise of 23% in a single day, leaving a gap open. Subsequently, the rise was accompanied by a 97% increase in just 13 days, followed by a bearish phase, a lateral phase, another bearish phase, and now a rebound. We could even consider the last two movements as a new lateral zone. Now, let’s analyze the movements of the stock in the most recent highlighted period in greater detail. We observe that, after breaking below the lateral range, the stock formed a well-defined downward channel. We obviously had two choices: to take advantage of the lateral zone by going both long and short: Respectively: 430–450 Short & 360–350 Long. However, this was a rather complex trade because the lateral range was very wide and volatile (34%). The second option was to wait for a long entry. The gap in this case is an excellent buying zone; in many cases, gaps need to be filled, and when this happens, they provide great opportunities. In this particular case, we are talking about a gap that triggered a 97% rise, so the chances of a rebound are very high. Using the Bar Replay, we see that initially the stock approaches our entry zone but doesn’t enter, closing slightly above it. This means we need to remain vigilant in the following days and monitor for a good entry opportunity. The next day, the stock rises by 8%—our hopes for a trade begin to waver, and we risk succumbing to FOMO. However, the only way to be consistently profitable is to always follow the plan. Always! Later, the stock drops, granting us an entry. In hindsight, it’s easy to say, “I would have entered here,” but this would have been a challenging trade because the gap was only partially filled and for a short time. A correct entry should have been between 286 and 276. We notice that the entry was very difficult and quick—so let’s assume we didn’t manage to enter . The next day, the stock opens with a significant upward gap (3.4%). At this point, we have two signals: the stock touched our zone and began to rise, and the buying zone was a previous gap. Now, the stock opens again with a gap, signaling that these opportunities are often leveraged to push the stock upward. We adjust our entry a bit higher, giving the trade more room to breathe since the previous setup didn’t work out. In this case, we carefully observe the downward trendline above us and use it as a signal to exit the trade or reduce the position size to limit losses. If it’s not broken, we know what to do. We let the trade run and see how the trendline is broken, followed by a very strong upward move that brings us to profit in just two sessions. This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by TIMINGTRADE
ALTSEASON within Q1 of 2025?Many of us have been anticipating an altseason, especially considering it's been about 3 years since the bull run began, yet we still haven't experienced a significant one. Several factors seem to be holding it back, including high Bitcoin dominance, delayed institutional interest in altcoins, weak altcoin fundamentals, and challenging economic and macro conditions, such as elevated interest rates and recession fears, which limit speculative investments in riskier assets. However, my analysis suggests that an altseason may emerge within the 𝐖 wave and this phase could provide a glimpse of an altseason, potentially lasting around 90 days, or within 𝐐𝟏. Following this, we may enter a larger corrective phase during the 𝐗 wave, presenting a generational buying opportunity. This setup could pave the way for another altseason during the next leg down in the 𝐘 wave. 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 : The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by chase_ID
3
TB-SYNERGY STRATEGY V6 2.0 TUTURIAL A 9 IN 1 INDICATORTRADERBUG'S SYNERGY STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0 REVISED 1/5/25 **W/ 8-21-200 EMAs **UT BOT ALERTS ** RSI ** MACD ** LRC LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL ** PARABOLIC SAR ** ATR BANDS ** HH-HL-LH-LL * This is a private script but i will be opening it up for invite only paid indicator very soon so please DM Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy V6+ Alerts 2.0 An Integrated Multi-Indicator Tool for Enhanced Market Analysis TB-STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0 Is a comprehensive trading tool designed to simplify market analysis by consolidating multiple proven technical indicators into a single, easy-to-use script. This strategy is tailored for traders seeking high-confidence buy and sell signals across various timeframes, making it particularly effective on higher timeframes and blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. By integrating five powerful indicators, this strategy ensures precision, clarity, and reliability in market trend identification, momentum analysis, and potential entry/exit points. Purpose and Usage This script is designed for advanced traders seeking a multi-faceted approach to analyze price action, momentum, and trend behavior. It combines leading and lagging indicators with visual and alert-based signals to guide entry/exit points. The strategy is protective of its intellectual property, Key Features 1. Linear Regression Channel (LRC): Identifies trend direction and potential reversal points with a clear channel-based structure. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Highlights overbought and oversold conditions, helping identify momentum shifts. 3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Captures trend reversals and momentum transitions with signal clarity. 4. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Tracks short-term (8 EMA), medium-term (20 EMA), and long-term (200 EMA) trends for comprehensive trend analysis. 5. UT Bot Alerts: Provides visual buy/sell signals (green = buy, red = sell) for actionable entry/exit confirmations. 6. Parabolic SAR (Green=Buy, Red=Sell) for entry/exit confirmations 7. ATR Bands (Brown) for Stoploss/Take profit 8. HH-HL-LH-LL (Green=Buy,Red=Sell) for tops & Bottoms 9. volume Spikes (Blue Triangle up) confirmation of adequate volume to take trade This script also includes Heiken Ashi compatibility to smooth price action, reduce noise, and make trends easier to identify. How It Works Entry Rules • Long Entry: A long trade is signaled when: • Price re-enters the LRC channel from below. • RSI crosses above oversold levels. • MACD crosses bullish. • EMAs align upward (8 EMA > 20 EMA > 200 EMA). • UT Bot Alert confirms with a green signal. • Short Entry: A short trade is signaled when: • Price exits the LRC channel from above. • RSI crosses below overbought levels. • MACD crosses bearish. • EMAs align downward (8 EMA < 20 EMA < 200 EMA). • UT Bot Alert confirms with a red signal. Exit Rules • Exit when: • Signals indicate a reversal (e.g., RSI leaves overbought/oversold zones, MACD crosses in the opposite direction). • EMAs show trend exhaustion. • UT Bot Alerts signal an opposite trend. Benefits for Traders • Streamlined Analysis: Reduces the need for multiple indicators by integrating them into one tool. • High Precision: Aligns multiple indicator signals for confluence, minimizing false entries. • Versatility: Works across various asset classes, including crypto, forex, and stocks. • User-Friendly Visualization: Custom color-coding and shapes simplify signal interpretation. • Time-Saving: Consolidates analysis into a single, intuitive script. Suggested Use Cases 1. Higher Timeframes (Daily, 4H): Ideal for blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, providing historically consistent signals for trend-following strategies. 2. Volatile Assets (Meme Coins, Altcoins): While effective, signals may be less reliable due to higher volatility. Use with caution and proper risk management. Why It Stands Out Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy is not just another single-function indicator. It combines the strengths of Nine proven tools into one comprehensive system, ensuring high-quality signals through confluence. Built-in features like Heiken Ashi smoothing and custom visualization make this script accessible to traders of all experience levels. Compliance and Disclaimer This tool is intended for market analysis and does not guarantee trading success. Users should practice proper risk management and consider signals within the context of their trading strategy. Results may vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and asset type. Step-by-Step Guide to Add the Indicator to TradingView Step 1: Open the Pine Editor 1. Log in to your TradingView account. 2. Open any chart. 3. At the bottom of the screen, click the Pine Editor tab. Step 2: Paste the Code 1. In the Pine Editor, delete any preloaded text. 2. Paste the custom Pine Script code for the Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy. Step 3: Save the Script 1. Click the Save icon or press Ctrl + S (Windows) / Cmd + S (Mac). 2. Name the script (e.g., “Traderbug Synergy Strategy”). Step 4: Add to Chart 1. Click the Add to Chart button (play icon). 2. If the code compiles correctly, the indicator will appear on the chart. Step 5: Customize and Use 1. Adjust settings via the gear icon in the Indicators list. 2. Begin trading using the signals provided by the indicator. Settings Cheat Sheet • Candles: • Green: Bullish signal • Red: Bearish signal • LRC: • White diamond step lines for trend direction • UT Bot Alerts: • Green: Buy signal • Red: Sell signal • RSI: • Overbought/Oversold: Visualized with circles • MACD: • Crossovers: Visualized with diamonds • EMAs: • 8 EMA (White), 20 EMA (Green), 200 EMA (Red) for trend analysis • PSAR Green:Buy signal Red:Sell signal • ATR Bands (Brown) Take profit & Stop loss • HH-HL-LH-LL Tops & Bottom finder • VOLUME SPIKE (Blue Triangle up) Confirmation of buy/sell Why Choose Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy? • Efficient Use of Free Tier on TradingView : Get the power of 9 indicators in one tool, making it easier to get comprehensive insights without cluttering your chart or exceeding your limit on the free tier. “Our 9-in-1 TradingView indicator delivers exceptional value by combining five powerful tools into one seamless package. Traders can access a multi-functional solution that covers all their needs, without the requirement for a Pro or Pro+ plan. By subscribing to our indicator, you’re getting the equivalent of multiple individual indicators, all in one, without the extra cost or complexity. It’s the perfect solution for traders looking for a comprehensive and cost-effective way to enhance their strategies, all while using the free TradingView plan.” Alerts • Supports custom alerts for the various buy/sell conditions, enabling automated notifications or integrations with other systems. This strategy is an excellent choice for intermediate to advanced traders looking for a multi-tool approach to market analysis. It’s especially valuable for those trading blue-chip assets or focusing on higher timeframes. With some refinements, it could easily become one of the most comprehensive and user-friendly TradingView tools available. Final Notes Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy is a versatile, multi-tool system designed for traders who value precision and efficiency. With its advanced features and user-friendly design, it stands out as a valuable resource for market analysis. Who Should Use It: • Intermediate to Advanced Traders: Ideal for those who can interpret the signals and use them in conjunction with their own analysis. • Serious Investors: Perfect for traders who prioritize accuracy and are willing to pair this tool with proper risk management strategies. What Makes It Unique: This strategy takes the power of multiple indicators, simplifies their signals into actionable insights, and provides both visual cues and customizable alerts. By offering confluence from leading and lagging indicators, it ensures reliability in trend detection, momentum shifts, and potential entry/exit points.
Education
by TRADERBUG_TECH
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Example of how to trade without chart analysis Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- Since the coin market can be traded 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, gaps do not occur as often as in the stock market. (However, gaps may occur frequently in exchanges with low trading volume.) In any case, I think that these movements provide considerable usefulness in conducting transactions. Sometimes I told you to buy when the price drops by -10% or more. Today, I will tell you why. -------------------------------------- In order to trade, you must have basic knowledge of charts. Otherwise, you are likely to conduct transactions incorrectly due to volatility. However, such cases are less common in the coin market than in the stock market. One of the reasons is that the current coins (tokens) are not being used for actual business purposes. So, I think there are quite a few issues that cause volatility other than charts like stocks. - If the price falls one day and falls by about -10% from the high before a new candle is created, I buy. The next day, if it falls by about -10% from the high again, I buy again. When it falls by about -10% like this, I continue to buy in installments. That's why I need to adjust my investment ratio. - If I buy like that, there will come a point where my price rises more than the average unit price. In that case, when I'm making a profit, I sell the amount corresponding to the purchase principal in installments and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit. If you want cash profit, you can sell a certain portion in installments. Also, on the contrary, when it rises by about +10%, we proceed with a split sale. - As shown in the example chart, you can see that there are not many cases where it rises by -10% or +10%. However, since it occurs more often in the case of altcoins than in BTC or ETH, you should pay special attention to adjusting your investment ratio when trading altcoins. That is why you must check the price fluctuation range 1-3 hours before a new candle is created on the 1D chart. This method is a method that can be traded even if you lack knowledge about charts. If you let go of your greed a little and have the ability to split sell when you are making a profit, you will be able to meet the moment when a crisis becomes an opportunity. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Did you Know ?!!!Did you really think that profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they will let you buy, hold, and sell at low levels without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will panic you and sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there is fear, not sell; because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game goes: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sale. They make it look like the end of the world so that you abandon everything, and when the market starts up again, you'll sit there saying, "What the heck just happened?" This is not an accident. It's a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear to make you give up. Because when you panic, they profit. They don't play the market. They play you. That's why most people never succeed. Because they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don't realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They digest the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We've seen this hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them to you at the top, leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don't play their game. Play your own.
Education
by CobraVanguard
8
Currency Wars: Exploring BTC/Fiat Ripple Effects on Key Markets1. Introduction In today's interconnected financial markets, major fiat currencies like the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) play a critical role in influencing USD-denominated assets. The relative strength between these currencies often reflects underlying economic trends and risk sentiment, which ripple across key markets like Treasuries (ZN), Gold (GC), and Equities (ES). However, Bitcoin (BTC), a non-traditional digital asset, introduces an interesting divergence. Unlike fiat currencies, BTC's behavior during periods of significant market stress may reveal a unique relationship to USD movements. This article explores: The relative strength between the Euro and Yen. Correlations between fiat currencies, BTC, and USD-denominated markets. Whether BTC reacts similarly or differently to traditional currencies during market volatility. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to identify how shifts in currency strength influence assets like Treasuries while assessing BTC’s independence or alignment with fiat markets. 2. Relative Strength Between 6E and 6J To evaluate currency dynamics, we compute the relative strength of the Euro (6E) versus the Yen (6J) as a ratio. This ratio helps identify which currency is outperforming, providing insights into broader risk sentiment and market direction. Another way to think of this ratio would be to use the RY1! Ticker symbol which represents the Euro/Japanese Yen Futures contract. Correlation Heatmaps The correlation heatmaps below highlight relationships between: o Currencies: Euro (6E), Yen (6J), and Bitcoin (BTC). o USD-Denominated Markets: Treasuries (ZN), S&P 500 (ES), Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), and Corn (ZC). o Key Observations (Daily Timeframe): The 6J (Yen) shows a positive correlation with Treasuries (ZN), supporting its traditional role as a safe-haven currency. Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates mixed relationships across assets, showing signs of divergence compared to fiat currencies during specific conditions. o Key Observations (Weekly and Monthly Timeframes): Over longer timeframes, correlations between 6E and markets like Gold (GC) strengthen, while the Yen's (6J) correlation with Treasuries becomes more pronounced. BTC correlations remain unstable, suggesting Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional fiat currencies, particularly in stress periods. 3. BTC Divergence: Behavior During Significant Moves To assess BTC's behavior during stress periods, we identify significant moves (beyond a predefined threshold) in the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J). Using scatter plots, we plot BTC returns against these currency moves: BTC vs 6E (Euro): BTC returns show occasional alignment with Euro movements but also exhibit non-linear patterns. For instance, during sharp Euro declines, BTC has at times remained resilient, highlighting its decoupling from fiat. BTC vs 6J (Yen): BTC's reaction to Yen strength/weakness appears more random, lacking a clear pattern. This further underscores BTC’s independence from traditional fiat dynamics, even as Yen strength typically aligns with safe-haven asset flows. The scatter plots reveal that while fiat currencies like the Euro and Yen maintain consistent relationships with USD-denominated markets, Bitcoin exhibits periods of divergence, particularly during extreme stress events. 4. Focus on Treasury Futures (ZN) Treasury Futures (ZN) are among the most responsive assets to currency shifts due to their role as a safe-haven instrument during economic uncertainty. Treasury prices often rise when risk aversion drives investors to seek safer assets, particularly when fiat currencies like the Yen (6J) strengthen. 6E/6J Influence on ZN From the correlation heatmaps: The Yen (6J) maintains a positive correlation with ZN prices, particularly during periods of market stress. The Euro (6E) exhibits a moderate correlation, with fluctuations largely dependent on economic events affecting Eurozone stability. When relative strength shifts in favor of the Yen (6J) over the Euro (6E), Treasury Futures often attract increased demand, reflecting investor flight-to-safety dynamics. Forward-Looking Trade Idea Given the above insights, here’s a hypothetical trade idea focusing on 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN): Trade Direction: Long Treasury Futures to capitalize on potential safe-haven flows. Entry Price: 109’29 Target Price: 111’28 Stop Loss: 109’09 Potential for Reward: 126 ticks = $1,968.75 Potential for Risk: 40 ticks = $625 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.15:1 Tick Value: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625 Required margin: $2,000 per contract This trade setup anticipates ZN’s upward momentum if the Yen continues to outperform the Euro or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers demand for Treasuries. 5. Risk Management Importance Trading currency-driven assets like Treasury Futures or Bitcoin requires a disciplined approach to risk management due to their volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Key considerations include: a. Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss levels to limit downside exposure, especially when markets react sharply to currency moves or unexpected news. b. Position Sizing: Adjust position size to match market volatility. c. Monitor Relative Strength: Continuously track the 6E/6J ratio to identify shifts in currency strength that could signal changes in safe-haven flows or BTC behavior. d. Non-Correlated Strategies: Incorporate BTC into portfolios as a non-correlated asset, especially when fiat currencies exhibit linear correlations with traditional markets. By implementing proper risk management techniques, traders can navigate the ripple effects of currency moves on markets like Treasuries and Bitcoin. 6. Conclusion The relative strength between the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) provides critical insights into the broader market environment, particularly during periods of stress. As shown: Treasury Futures (ZN): Highly sensitive to Yen strength due to its safe-haven role. Bitcoin (BTC): Demonstrates unique divergence from fiat currencies, reinforcing its role as a non-traditional asset during volatility. By analyzing correlations and BTC’s reaction to currency moves, traders can better anticipate opportunities in USD-denominated markets and identify divergence points that signal market shifts. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
13
All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value. Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red). The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner. Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time. I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets. The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by aibek
What is Bitcoin ‘Pairs Trading’? (Example: ETH/BTC)This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀 It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens. It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy . In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the HODLRS!! Naturally after hitting this massive milestone, some traders are going to be thinking about taking profits. And if they’re thinking it, some of them are going to be doing it. But let’s forget about selling for a moment, are you really buying more BTC when it just hit $100k and it's up ~150% this year? So even if there is not more active selling interest, there’s probably less buying interest. I think you’d be mad (or very brave) to bet against Bitcoin. BUT Are these scenarios possible? Bitcoin trades sideways for a while after hitting $100k Alt season kicks in and other cryptos play catchup If you think yes to at least one of these, my team and me have been looking at a pairs trade What is pairs trading? Pairs trading in crypto is a market-neutral trading strategy that involves taking a long position in one cryptocurrency and a short position in another, based on the assumption that their historical price relationship will revert to the mean. The point is to profit from the relative price movement between the two assets, i.e. not the absolute ups or downs of one asset like Bitcoin. ETH/BTC I put this crypto pair this way around - I’m not sure if you’re meant to - it just kind of reminds me of EUR/USD in forex trading. So as a reminder, ETH/BTC is Ethereum’s token Ether priced in Bitcoin. When Ether outperforms Bitcoin it goes up and when Ether underperforms Bitcoin, it goes down. So it doesn’t actually matter if Bitcoin goes up, down or sideways, if you’re trading ETH/BTC - what matters is what one does relative to the other. Well this thing has been going down a lot! Until recently. Going back to the idea of pairs trading - the thesis here is that the Ethererum/Bitcoin price ratio has dropped to bargain levels and could be about to recover. I’m not going to lie to you - there are a lot of sore hands out there from trying to catch this falling knife! But this rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-21 rally has caught our attention. Dropping to the daily chart, can you see how 0.4000 has acted like a magnet to the price both from above and below? 0.4 is our line in the sand for long positions. Equally, our risk is well defined in this setup. A drop back under the 61.8% Fib level around 0.32 means the idea isn’t working and it's time to get out and let Bitcoin do its thing! How to trade it Specific entries and exits depend on your personal risk tolerance, but broadly there are THREE methods here: 1. Crypto-to-Crypto Spot Trading Trade ETH directly for BTC (or vice versa) on a cryptocurrency exchange. This is straightforward and involves holding the actual assets. 2. CFD Trading (Contracts for Difference) Speculate on ETH/BTC price movements using CFDs without owning the underlying cryptocurrencies. This allows for leverage and the ability to short-sell. 3. Spread Trading Buy ETH and simultaneously short BTC (or vice versa) with equal dollar value to profit from their relative price movement while minimizing exposure to overall market trends. But that’s just how we are seeing things? Do you think this is bananas, or could we be onto something? Please let us know in the comments Cheers! Jasper. Chief Market Analyst, Trading Writers
Education
by jasperlawler
Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles (updated)1. Halving Cycle Structure This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns. Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles 1. Halving Cycle Structure Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into: Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth. Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery. Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods. 2. Historical Price Performance Cycle 1 (2012 Halving): Entire Cycle move: 11644% Pre-Halving having: +390% Post halving +2947% 96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving. Cycle 2 (2016 Halving): Entire Cycle move: 2503% Pre Halving: +213% Post halving +703% 91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going... Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving. Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths Pre Halving: +234% so far Post halving +92% so far If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price. 3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions Projected move: 270K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds. Bear Market (2027–2028): Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation Trade safe Tarder Leo
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by BTM-LEO
5
Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles1. Halving Cycle Structure This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns. Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles 1. Halving Cycle Structure Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into: Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth. Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery. Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods. 2. Historical Price Performance Cycle 1 (2012 Halving): Entire Cycle move: 11644% Pre-Halving having: +390% Post halving +2947% 96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving. Cycle 2 (2016 Halving): Entire Cycle move: 2503% Pre Halving: +213% Post halving +703% 91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going... Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving. Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths Pre Halving: +234% so far Post halving +92% so far If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price. 3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions Bull Market (2024–2027): Projected move: 905K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds. Bear Market (2027–2028): Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation Resistance Zones: $250K, $500K, and $905K projected peaks based on logarithmic trends. Trade safe Tarder Leo
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by BTM-LEO
2
Crypto Money Flow CycleHello, The Crypto Money Flow Cycle is a flow model that discusses the route of investments from fiat to Bitcoin, from Bitcoin to altcoins, and backward into fiat, booking profit at every step. The model theorizes that most Bitcoins in circulation aren't mined but are bought for fiat. Before every bull run, investors don't necessarily buy mining equipment but purchase Bitcoins from their fiat money. As more and more money flows from fiat into Bitcoin, Bitcoin price rallies. At this phase, Bitcoin usually pumps more than most altcoins. At the end of the phase, investors buy altcoins from their Bitcoins. They prioritize large caps like Ethereum. So, the price of large caps rallies compared to fiat and Bitcoin. Usually, these rallies outperform Bitcoin because the investors can afford to invest not only the initial fiat value but all the profits so far. That is Bitcoin's performance on fiat compounded by the large caps' performance compared to Bitcoin. Over time, investors move the value from large caps to medium caps and from medium caps to small caps, pumping the markets in this order. Since the investment in medium caps is larger with the profit than the large caps, medium caps usually pump more, and similarly, small caps pump even more when money from medium caps flows into them. To realize all the profit so far, investors can exchange small-cap altcoins back into Bitcoin, which means Bitcoin will pump once again. Then all the money so far, which is the initial fiat value compounded by the profit from each phase can return into fiat. Usually, this is when Bitcoin suffers correction and drags altcoins with itself. That's how the Crypto Money Flow Cycle usually works. It's a model, which might or might not be true. However, I can say AI could trade the estimated phases with a success rate of over 71.23%, which means there might be more to this model than luck. Regards, Ely
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Elysian_Mind
9
Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in Trading Introduction The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use. Success Rate and Performance -Key Statistics Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend -Breakout Direction Bearish: 60% of cases Bullish: 40% of cases Contextual Reliability Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38% After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9% Important Considerations The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation. Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial. Complementary Indicators -Volume Gradual decrease during formation Significant increase during breakout -Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences -Moving Averages Crossovers: Signal trend changes -Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge -Momentum Indicators MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend -Other Elements Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals Conclusion The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance. _______________________________________________ Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner: -The confirmed breakout Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge. Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. -The retest Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance. Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend. -The post-breakout consolidation Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout. Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend. -The confirmed divergences Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD. Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support. -Timing with Japanese Candlesticks Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud. Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern. -Important Considerations Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively. Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade. Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions. By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich