MFI INDICATOR - STRATEGY FOR TRADINGIndicator MFI — model
Incorporating technical indicators into your trading system requires a clear understanding of their fundamental principles.
An innovative solution developed by Gene Cuong and Avrum Sudak allows the use of volumetric data in metric analysis.
The Cash Flow Index serves as a graphical representation of the "cash ratio", requiring a preliminary derivation of the "cash ratio" and subsequent calculations, including the determination of typical price and cash flow.
Similar to the relative strength index, the cash flow index is based on the concept of a “typical price,” calculated as the average of the high, low, and closing prices over a specified period of time. For example, if the daily time frame has a high of 70,000, a low of 65,000, and a closing price of 68,000, the typical daily price is calculated as follows:
Typical daily price = (70000 + 65000 + 68000)/3 = 67666
Cash flow is then determined by multiplying typical price by volume:
Cash Flow = Typical Daily Price * Volume.
Comparing the resulting cash flow with the previous day's cash flow makes it easier to identify positive or negative trends. Positive cash flow indicates an increase, while a negative cash flow indicates a decrease. Cases of equivalent cash flow values are not taken into account.
When positive and negative cash flows can be distinguished, the cash ratio is calculated by dividing the former by the latter:
Cash Ratio = (Positive Cash Flow / Negative Cash Flow).
Using this data, the cash flow index (MFI) can be calculated using the formula:
MFI = 100 - (100/(1 + Money Factor)).
Gene Cuong and Avrum Sudak have delineated three primary signals employed by the Cash Flow Index:
Overbought or Oversold Levels: Traders strategically monitor for overbought or oversold conditions as indicators of unsustainable price extremes, signaling potential market corrections.
Bullish and Bearish Divergences: Analysis of bullish and bearish divergences serves as a predictive tool for identifying potential trend reversals. Discrepancies between the direction of price movements and corresponding Cash Flow Index trends can offer valuable insights into shifting market dynamics.
Fluctuations at 80 or 20 Levels: Observing fluctuations in the indicator readings around the 80 or 20 thresholds enables traders to discern potential market reversals. These pivotal levels serve as crucial points of reference, guiding traders in assessing market sentiment and making informed trading decisions.
Determining overbought and oversold zones using the cash flow index
While the relative strength index (RSI) and other oscillator-type technical indicators are capable of identifying overbought and oversold market conditions, the money flow index (MFI) stands out for its effectiveness in this area. Including additional volume information allows the MFI indicator to filter out false signals from overbought and oversold conditions, increasing its reliability, especially for traders looking to counter prevailing trends.
Like most momentum indicators, the Money Flow Index ranges from 0 to 100. A Money Flow Index reading below 20 indicates an oversold signal. Conversely, a Cash Flow Index reading greater than 80 suggests an overbought scenario.
One limitation of trading based solely on overbought and oversold signals is the inability to counter the current trend merely due to signals generated by the Money Flow Index (MFI). Optimal trading strategy involves exercising patience and waiting for a price action pattern to validate a shift in the prevailing trend before taking a position. By employing this approach, traders can make more informed decisions and reduce the risk of entering positions prematurely based solely on MFI signals.
The MFI Indicator and Divergence
Beyond its function in pinpointing overbought and oversold conditions, the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator serves as a valuable tool for detecting divergence within the market. In essence, divergence manifests when the price moves in one direction while the indicator readings depict a contrary trend. Traders regard this occurrence as a strong indication that the price is poised to reverse in alignment with the technical indicator's trajectory.
Utilizing the MFI indicator enables traders to readily recognize such signals, whether they manifest as bullish or bearish divergence.
Bullish Divergence:
Bearish divergence:
What Should You Consider?
By integrating volume into its mathematical framework, the Money Flow Index is adept at generating highly precise trading signals concerning overbought and oversold market conditions. Additionally, it demonstrates a notable ability to pinpoint emerging divergences within the market. However, like any technical indicator, it possesses inherent limitations.
A primary constraint of the Money Flow Index is its propensity to persist in overbought or oversold states for extended durations, potentially leading to false signals. Yet, by crafting a trading strategy that incorporates price action signals, traders can harness the MFI indicator to identify potential reversal zones.
Armed with this insight, traders can anticipate shifts in directional price movement with ease and strategize their trades accordingly.
Summing It Up:
The Money Flow Index stands out as a unique indicator amalgamating momentum and volume within the RSI formula. Its strength lies in its adeptness at identifying potential reversals through overbought or oversold levels, as well as bullish or bearish divergences. Nonetheless, prudent utilization of the Cash Flow Index entails supplementing its readings with additional technical indicators rather than relying solely on its signals.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
The whole truth about trading - playing against fateIt is apparent that your interest in trading stems from a desire to transcend the conventional 9 to 6 work regimen or to establish an additional revenue stream for enhanced financial stability. Regardless of the impetus, trading imbues one with a sense of hope—a hope for attaining financial autonomy and catering to the exigencies of one's familial responsibilities.
Nevertheless, hope unaccompanied by acumen proves inadequate in the realm of trading.
Are you prepared to delve into the intricacies of trading in its entirety?
Can you harness the mechanisms of trading to your advantage and prosper therein?
Trading is a means of slow enrichment
For many, the following assertion may not be warmly received, yet it warrants acknowledgment: Trading serves as a gradual enrichment scheme.
While anecdotes exist of traders who commenced with modest capital and ascended to seven-figure balances, such instances are rare. The reality is stark: the odds of such success are exceedingly slim. The allure of amassing substantial wealth swiftly is tempting, but it often necessitates assuming excessive risk. Only those blessed with exceptional luck may realize significant gains in short order.
Conversely, the vast majority—99.99%—who pursue this path find themselves depleting their initial investment. Merely a fortunate minority attain even modest profits, and their success is often attributed more to chance than skill.
Consider the perspective of Warren Buffett, whose wealth is renowned:
"My wealth is a product of American residency, fortuitous genetics, and the power of compound interest."
The crux lies in compound interest—the gradual accumulation of profits over time. Buffett's ascent to becoming the world's wealthiest investor spanned decades, not mere weeks or months.
Hence, if one views trading as a shortcut to affluence, disillusionment is inevitable.
You need money to make money from trading
One of the most pervasive trading fallacies is the belief that possessing a profitable trading strategy guarantees the potential to amass millions in the market—a notion that has ensnared many traders.
While it is feasible to develop a lucrative strategy, its profitability alone does not guarantee the attainment of vast wealth. Why? Because the magnitude of your initial deposit plays a pivotal role.
Consider this scenario: Suppose you possess a trading strategy yielding a 20% annual return.
With an account balance of $1,000, your potential earnings amount to $200 per year.
With $10,000, your potential earnings escalate to $2,000 annually.
Scaling up further, with a $1 million account, potential earnings soar to $200,000 per year.
This illustrates that while a trading strategy is undeniably significant, it represents only one facet of the equation. Equally crucial is the size of your trading account.
This elucidates why hedge funds attract vast sums—often in the millions, if not billions of dollars—since substantial capital is indispensable for maximizing returns from trading endeavors.
Trading is one of the worst ways to earn a regular income
Trading is often sought out by individuals seeking an alternative income stream, aiming to liberate themselves from the confines of a conventional 9 to 6 job in pursuit of pursuing their passions. However, it is crucial to confront a sobering reality: trading stands as one of the least reliable avenues for securing a consistent income.
Why? The dynamics of financial markets are inherently mercurial. A strategy that yields profits one week may falter the next. This isn't to suggest that such strategies become entirely obsolete, but rather that market conditions necessitate adaptability. Realigning a strategy to suit evolving market dynamics demands time—a commodity not readily available in the fast-paced world of trading. This adjustment period could extend over several weeks or even months.
Consequently, anticipating profits on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis proves unrealistic. Success in trading hinges upon one's ability to capitalize on market opportunities as they arise, accepting the yields bestowed by the market, and refraining from unrealistic expectations of consistent returns.
You're always studying the markets
Continuous learning is indispensable for success in trading. Reflecting on my own journey, I initially gravitated towards indicators and price action trading, convinced that these tools alone would suffice for profitability. However, this mindset hindered my progress, as I neglected broader market perspectives.
Recognizing the limitations of my approach, I embarked on a journey of exploration. I delved into the practices of accomplished traders, discovering diverse strategies such as trend trading, system trading, and mean reversion trading.
Today, my repertoire encompasses multiple trading strategies across various markets. This diversified approach has engendered a more consistent capital curve, enhancing my overall returns.
The pivotal lesson gleaned from this experience is clear: achieving profitability in trading does not signify the culmination of one's learning curve. On the contrary, ongoing education and exploration of the markets remain imperative for sustained success.
How do you become a successful trader when all the odds are against you?
Embrace Existing Solutions:
Attempting to forge your own path in trading can prove both time-consuming and costly. Instead, seek out established trading algorithms equipped with tested and proven trading rules. Consider investing in algorithms like mine, which come backed by historical testing results.
Maintain Financial Stability:
Relying solely on trading for income places undue psychological pressure on yourself. The imperative to generate monthly income often leads to hasty and ill-advised trading decisions. Many seasoned traders, therefore, diversify their income streams. For instance, some engage in mentorship or operate hedge funds that levy management fees irrespective of market performance. By securing a stable income through alternate means, you can focus on trading without financial anxiety.
Harness the Power of Compound Growth:
Albert Einstein hailed compound interest as the eighth wonder of the world. Yet, I propose introducing you to the ninth wonder: the regular infusion of funds to augment profits. Consider this scenario: with an initial $5,000 investment earning an average annual return of 20%, you would amass $191,688 over 20 years. However, by adding an additional $5,000 to your account annually and compounding profits, your total would skyrocket to $1,311,816 over the same period. Witness the transformative potential of consistent contributions and compounding gains.
Rising and Falling The Bitcoin StoryAs we zoom in on the intricate details of this Bitcoin chart, we’re essentially time traveling through the life story of a revolutionary currency. This isn't just a tale of wild price swings; it’s a deep dive into how Bitcoin has weaved itself into the fabric of global finance. We've seen it grow from a digital seedling into a towering tree in the financial forest, its roots spreading far and wide.
Our story begins when Bitcoin was just whispers in cyberspace, valued at mere cents. It’s akin to finding an old treasure map, leading to a chest that's now worth billions. Then 2013 hit, and Bitcoin grabbed the world’s attention — not all for good reasons, mind you, with the Silk Road and Mt. Gox putting it through its paces. Those were testing times, but Bitcoin showed its mettle, bouncing back each time.
Marching down the timeline, we encounter pivotal moments like when Germany gave Bitcoin a regulatory nod, the halving events that sharpen Bitcoin's scarcity edge, and the growing wave of institutional investments. Each of these milestones is like a stepping stone that Bitcoin used to cross the river of uncertainty, inching closer to the mainstream shore.
Fast-forward to 2017, and we find Bitcoin riding a wave of enthusiasm, propelled by a flood of ICOs. It’s a dizzying climb, with a peak that had everyone talking. But then, as the adage goes, what goes up must come down, and 2018 brought the sobering chill of the crypto winter. This was the market's way of saying, “Take a breath, reassess, and plan your next move.”
In 2021, Bitcoin came back with a vengeance, reaching dizzying new heights. This wasn’t just about investors jumping on a bandwagon; it was about big players, from corporations to hedge funds, recognizing Bitcoin’s potential. But then, the tides turned in 2022, as macroeconomic pressures, from inflation concerns to tightening monetary policy, caused the market to shiver and shake off some of its gains.
And just when we thought we had seen it all, the Bitcoin saga continued into 2022 and 2023, years that would test the mettle of investors and the resilience of the crypto ecosystem. The narrative took a dramatic turn as the market faced the headwinds of change. Inflation was no longer a specter looming on the horizon; it became a stark reality, sending central banks into a frenzy of monetary tightening. The ripples of this new economic stance were felt throughout the Bitcoin market, sending shivers down the spine of the crypto world and triggering a sell-off that would see Bitcoin shed a significant portion of its value.
But even as the value wavered, the technology didn't stand still. Innovations within the blockchain space continued, with improvements to scalability and security, not to mention the ever-expanding universe of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Skepticism was still a frequent guest at the table, but for every doubter, there was an innovator, pushing the boundaries of what crypto could be.
As we turned the page to 2024, the crypto community was holding its breath in anticipation. Would this be the year of recovery, the year when Bitcoin would defy the odds and rebound? Or would it be another year of challenges and character-building for the world's premier cryptocurrency? The introduction of more sophisticated regulatory frameworks began to pave a clearer path for institutional adoption, and whispers of the next halving event started to stir the market's imagination.
Bitcoin's dance with mainstream finance became more intricate. There were stumbles, sure, but every step was a lesson learned. The chart became not just a reflection of past price movements, but a ledger of Bitcoin's ongoing maturation—a digital asset growing up in a world still grappling with its implications.
Behind the scenes, this chart captures the tug-of-war between innovation and skepticism. For instance, the social media giants, with their advertising clampdown, had Bitcoin on the ropes for a bit. Yet, each technological milestone, each regulatory hurdle crossed, has added to Bitcoin's credibility.
Then, we have the environmental subplot, where Tesla's dance with Bitcoin highlighted the growing pains of an industry grappling with sustainability. It’s like watching a fledgling industry mature, grappling with its identity and its impact on the planet.
Why are we sharing this story in all its technicolor detail? Because it’s about more than just investment and market speculation. It's a historical document for future market historians, a lesson book for current investors, and a crystal ball for those trying to catch a glimpse of the future.
This chart is a saga of resilience, bursting with tales of technical revolutions, economic shake-ups, regulatory cliffhangers, and the tireless human spirit driving it all. It’s the chronicle of an underdog that’s fighting for its place in the financial hall of fame.
But wait, there's more. This isn't just about recounting past glories and missteps. It's about sketching out the forces that may shape Bitcoin's journey ahead. It’s about seeing the patterns, the peaks, the troughs, and gearing up for the next chapter in this blockbuster saga.
In wrapping up this lengthy, winding narrative, we come back to where we are now: Bitcoin, standing tall amidst the shifting sands of finance and technology. This chart isn't just a snapshot; it’s a living, breathing tale of an asset that's as enigmatic as it is exciting. It’s about understanding the past to navigate the future’s uncertain waters. So here’s to Bitcoin, the digital enigma, the currency of tomorrow, and here’s to the unwritten chapters that we’ll be charting next.
Examples of criteria for creating a trading strategyHello traders!
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We analyze charts in a variety of ways to determine trends.
I think the important thing is how to create a trading strategy using these analysis methods, not whether you can match the trend or not.
Therefore, even if you know the trend, if you do not create a trading strategy properly, you may end up with small profits or even losses.
Therefore, I think it is extremely important to find support and resistance points that can ultimately create a trading strategy and how to create a trading strategy based on those points.
(Heikin Ashi 1D chart)
(Renko 1D chart)
I think the Heikin Ashi chart and Renko chart supported by TradingView charts are good charts for identifying trends.
However, since the HA-Low and HA-High indicators created using the Heikin Ashi chart are implemented, we will not talk about the Heikin Ashi chart.
The advantage of Heikin Ashi charts and Renko charts is that they reduce fakes and whipsaws.
However, it is not easy to actually trade with only two charts.
That's because it's so difficult to see.
In particular, Renko charts can be more esoteric than Heikin Ashi charts.
The reason is that the price is expressed in certain blocks.
However, if you look at the way the chart is drawn, you can see that fakes and whipsaws have been reduced more than the Heikin Ashi chart.
So, just as I created the HA-Low and HA-High indicators using the Heikin Ashi chart, I am trying to create a standardized trading strategy using the Renko chart.
We added the TS-BW auxiliary indicator used in the existing chart to verify the basic direction.
The overall direction can be verified by whether the BW indicator is in an upward or downward trend.
Additionally, you can verify more detailed direction through the movements of the StochRSI indicator and the StochRSI EMA indicator.
We added the MS-Signal indicator to the price chart section to help you see the chart trend more intuitively.
With the addition of the MS-Signal indicator, I don't think there is a need to add the superTrend indicator.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is a curve, we wanted to help create a trading strategy by adding the superTrend indicator, which is expressed as a line.
Next, in order to create a more confident trading strategy, various indicators are displayed on the price chart so that you can intuitively check support and resistance points.
By doing this, I believe that the Renko chart, which was used as a trend chart, was expressed as a tradable chart.
No matter how good an analysis technique you know, if you cannot create a trading strategy that suits you, your trading is likely to ultimately fail.
Therefore, once you have found an analysis technique that suits you, you should focus on reducing your psychological burden by investing more time in creating a trading strategy rather than trying to develop the analysis technique.
The trading strategy is
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
I think it consists of the three things above.
Steps 1 and 2 are steps to begin with a broader observation of the coin (token, item) you want to trade rather than the chart.
Therefore, in the coin market, it is necessary to check whether the coin ecosystem is expanding and which themes it is included in.
If you decide to trade a coin (token, item) that has been confirmed in this way, you must look at the chart of the coin (token, item) and create a trading strategy.
The decisions made in steps 1 and 2 of the trading strategy are classified into intraday and medium-term investment, short-term and day trading, etc., and the appropriate investment size is determined. Accordingly, actual purchases, sales, stop losses, etc. are made in step 3. You decide.
When purchasing, it is important to try to estimate the average purchase price as much as possible.
To do this, it is recommended to proceed with split purchases at the support and resistance points expressed in the chart above.
Selling for profit is also recommended through split sales.
However, you should try to sell when the price is rising.
This is because if you sell while the price is rising and falling, it can be quite difficult to create a follow-up trading strategy.
Therefore, when selling, it is recommended to conduct split sales using auxiliary indicators such as the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator.
I think stop-loss is something that should be done when there is a possibility that the price will fall further and cause larger losses.
Therefore, how to sell at the stop loss point is very important.
I believe that you can quickly learn a clear way to practice stop loss by conducting futures trading.
I believe that the overall rate of return is ultimately determined by how well you do your stop loss.
However, if possible, it is important to confirm your profit in advance before taking a stop loss.
Therefore, I think that when deciding buy, sell, or stop-loss points, you should not rely on price issues other than the chart.
This is because issues other than charts add subjective thoughts and can interfere with creating a proper trading strategy.
Therefore, when deciding on step 3 of your trading strategy, it is best to look at the charts first and then read various articles afterwards.
Whatever the method, if you have a trading strategy standard that suits you, that standard is the best trading strategy standard.
No matter how good the trading strategy standard is, if it does not fit your investment style, there is a high possibility that the transaction will ultimately fail.
When studying charts, it is best not to try to memorize the names of patterns or various indicators.
Those names are not helpful at all in creating a trading strategy.
Therefore, when studying charts or analysis techniques, you should try to find out what the key is.
Once you understand the core content, you need to think deeply about how you can use it to create a trading strategy.
You may have difficulty understanding this article because it contains a description of what you learned while conducting the transaction.
Also, it may sound abstract.
However, since it is information obtained through actual trading, I think it can be a way for those studying charts to learn more quickly.
Have a good time.
thank you
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History of Bitcoin: The Underdog That Rewired FinanceBitcoin, a phenomenon that emerged at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, has changed the way we think about money. To celebrate the token’s $73,000 milestone, we trace its origin story and look ahead into the future. To infinity… and beyond?
Table of Contents
A Financial Product Too Big to Ignore
Born in 2008 as the World’s First Cryptocurrency
The Very Early Days of Trading on Exchanges
The Volatile Phenomenon That Sparked a Change in Finance
A Place to Find Value in the Face of a Global Pandemic
Cryptocurrency Trading Lands on Wall Street
What’s Coming Next for BTC Price as We Move Deeper into 2024?
Bitcoin for Your Thoughts?
📍 A Financial Product Too Big to Ignore 📍
Bitcoin’s story is the story of an underdog that pushed through volatility and disbelief, but also dashed forward riding on hope and enthusiasm.
Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has so far managed to survive and overcome each one of its many pitfalls and obstacles thanks to its novelty, mystery, and investment appeal. Not only that, but the orange coin has progressed so remarkably, it has risen to rival the valuation of the world’s biggest companies.
As we’re about to close the first-quarter chapter of 2024, we take a closer look at what has fueled Bitcoin’s price to record levels about $73,000 a pop.
To celebrate the token’s historical milestone of $73,000 , we go back to its creation, tracing major development milestones. From wiping out billions of dollars from its valuation to logging stratospheric gains, Bitcoin’s history is nothing short of a miracle.
Today, Bitcoin boasts a valuation of more than $1.4 trillion. In other words, more than double as electric carmaker Tesla (ticker: TSLA ), founded by the uber-rich eccentric engineer Elon Musk.
With great power, comes great interest from Wall Street. A bunch of spot Bitcoin ETFs are now strutting among asset managers, finding their way to ordinary (and some degen) investors and money-spinning professionals alike.
📍 Born in 2008 as the World’s First Cryptocurrency 📍
The history of Bitcoin is relatively short. But it can sting. Because we were all playing games or being 8 years old instead of buying Bitcoin at 4 cents.
Back in 2008, the financial system crumbled under the pressure of a global crisis. A collapse in the housing market led to millions of homeowners not being able to cover their mortgage payments.
About that time, an individual—or a group of people—called Satoshi Nakamoto, concluded the banking system was not reliable. A new asset class emerged—one that did not need the intervention of banks to function.
Bitcoin, as it was called in the white paper released in November 2008 , was born. Essentially, Bitcoin represented a new type of money. An innovative software system that intended to rewire the worldwide financial system.
Bitcoin sprouted to life as an open-source software running on a peer-to-peer network called blockchain. One way to think of Bitcoin is to see it as an electronic form of physical cash without gatekeepers such as banks. The participants in the decentralized network are responsible for the verification of transactions, and all transactions are visible for the public.
📍 The Very Early Days of Trading on Exchanges 📍
Once it was born, Bitcoin stayed confined to a small network of only a few computers (and the early adopter group of ultra-niche geeks). Then, mining Bitcoin was able to get you hundreds or even thousands of coins in a few days’ time due to the low level of computing power required. Safe to say, the first people to play around with Bitcoin had no idea the tiny orange-themed gig will turn into a fire-breathing $1.3 trillion dragon.
Instead, the squad of core developers would try and make the network operate as smoothly as possible. Once this was achieved, Bitcoin hit its first exchange in 2010. The first Bitcoin to be transacted on an exchange was worth zero dollars. Then at the peak of 2010, one Bitcoin reached a record high of 39 cents.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a wild ride as millions of people have onboarded the crypto bandwagon. Hundreds of exchanges have opened and traders today reach daily volumes of tens of billions of dollars exchanged in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's mind-blowing price increase from its first steps through March 12, 2024 - Source: TradingView
📍 The Volatile Phenomenon That Sparked a Change in Finance 📍
It did not take much for Bitcoin to be noticed as a wonder of technology and a catalyst for change. Once it landed for trading on its first cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin quickly gained popularity purely from an investment perspective.
The first traders would buy and sell the token in a matter of hours only to realize a small profit and savor the rush of adrenaline. This same speculative behavior could still be found today even after the stratospheric gains that have made Bitcoin a heavyweight in terms of valuation.
The price gyrations have crushed many traders and investors who were found unprepared to stomach the aggressive swings. Along the way, Bitcoin has endured over 17 selloffs of more than 30%. It has been through six declines of more than 60%, and four of more than 80%.
Still, after all these spectacular drops, Bitcoin has clawed back its losses and returned stronger than ever. So strong, it crushed all doom-and gloom forecasters and permabears when it blasted through the $73,000 threshold in March of 2024. Not long before that, Bitcoin had a chance to prove its worth as a safe haven in troubled times.
📍 A Place to Find Value in the Face of a Global Pandemic 📍
It’s important to mention that the current record high in the price of Bitcoin arrived after BTC’s previous peak of $69,000 in November 2021. Back then, the coronavirus crisis, which hit in March 2020, turned out to be a key period of growth for crypto.
The original digital currency served as a safe haven and a store of value—digital gold, if you like, or better—amid lingering uncertainty in the broad financial markets. In numbers, during the pandemic’s low point in March 2020, one Bitcoin was worth about $3,900.
Presently, a single Bitcoin is up more than 1,700% from its coronavirus-fueled meltdown.
The pandemic helped shift investor focus on the crypto market as participants sought to find pent-up value. The search has led to millions of Bitcoin proponents flocking to the digital asset. In practice, the interest to invest in Bitcoin has been so big, the top cop on Wall Street—the Securities and Exchange Commission—finally gave its nod.
📍 Cryptocurrency Trading Lands on Wall Street 📍
The big dogs on Wall Street welcomed the first Bitcoin-centric products to trade alongside stocks , bonds , and forex . More specifically, there are now eleven exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offering spot Bitcoin, or the real deal, unlike Bitcoin futures, which don’t hold genuine BTC. The step is a monumental milestone in Bitcoin’s path toward mainstream adoption and acceptance in the financial markets.
The eleven Bitcoin ETFs , approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, were greeted by investors with billions of dollars injected. Giant asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity are seeing overflowing demand for Bitcoin from both institutions and retail investors.
The positive thing about these spot BTC ETFs is that they’re backed by the physical asset. Whenever inflows start to outpace liquidity, the asset manager needs to purchase new Bitcoin and add it to its reserves. The more the net inflow, the more it needs to buy BTC. And that drives prices higher.
From inception in January to March 2024, BlackRock’s BTC ETF hit $10 billion—faster than any US ETF ever.
📍 What’s Coming Next for BTC Price as We Move Deeper into 2024? 📍
Looking ahead into 2024, there is no doubt that we are going to see new bouts of volatility. More than that, many are optimistic we will continue to see a string of fresh records in the price of Bitcoin. With this in mind, the risks will be there too.
Both new and old, market participants need to know that price swings may be stomach-churning as the market adjusts to shifting moods in the rarefied air of $70,000.
Buying at the top is scary.
📍 Bitcoin for Your Thoughts? 📍
How did you first get exposure to Bitcoin? When did you buy your first piece of the crypto and are you brave enough to buy again at the top? Let us know in the comments!
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With 💖, TradingView Team
Bitcoin Broke New High – The Real Reasons Behind ItThe relationship between inflation and Bitcoin - they moves in tandem together, in the same direction.
We saw Bitcoin has broken above its 2021 high, and it is likely to continue this trend.
Many attribute the reason behind this rally to the approval of Bitcoin ETF by SEC in January of this year. While this approval serves an incentive, the core reason for this rally is the resilience of US inflation, meaning the inflation is still pretty stubborn, not coming down to the 2% target.
Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options
Ticker: MBT
Minimum fluctuation:
$5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50
BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
What is the secret of success? 🌴 Being Wrong is OKAY!Here is the 5 TIPS TO DO with your mistakes:
1. Acknowledge Your Errors
So often, we say things like, “It’s unfortunate, but market goes opposite me” or "SEC lawsuit crashed prices, so I lose" But blaming other people or minimizing your responsibility isn’t helpful to anyone.
Before you can learn from your mistakes, you have to accept full responsibility for your role in the outcome. That can be uncomfortable sometimes, but until you can say, “I messed up,” you aren’t ready to change.
2. Ask Yourself Tough Questions
While you don’t want to dwell on your mistakes, reflecting on them can be productive. Ask yourself a few tough questions:
• What went wrong?
• What could I do better next time?
• What did I learn from this?
Write down your responses and you'll see the situation a little more clearly, sometimes from different side. Seeing your answers on paper can help you think more logically about an irrational or emotional experience.
3. Make A Plan (checklist)
Beating yourself up for your mistakes won’t help you down the road. It’s important to spend the bulk of your time thinking about how to do better in the future.
Make a plan that will help you avoid making a similar mistake. Be as detailed as possible but remain flexible since your plan may need to change.
Creating checklist of trading criterias (for entry, for stop loss, for target etc) can be very helpful. Make sure you have it in front of your eyes before open a trade or close it.
4. Make It Harder To Mess Up
Don’t depend on willpower alone to prevent you from taking an unhealthy choice or from giving into immediate gratification. Increase your chances of success by making it harder to mess up again.
To prevent yourself from having instant loss split your deposit to several accounts and make sure you using only small part of it for "intraday" or "scalping" trading. Additionally split your deposit for Savings account and Spot trading. And if you new to trading use only about 15% of your investment to learn, and don't touch other part untill you gain good experience.
5. Create A List Of Reasons Why You Don’t Want To Make The Mistake Again
Sometimes, it only takes one weak moment to indulge in something you shouldn’t. Creating a list of all the reasons why you should stay on track could help you stay self-disciplined, even during the toughest times.
Create a list of all the reasons why you shouldn’t enter the market, it could be your emotional state, willing to revenge on the market or might be a price action setup, fundamentals or something else.
It will help to resist the temptation to enter bad trade.
Self-discipline is like a muscle. Each time you delay gratification and make a healthy choice, you grow mentally stronger.
Cycle of Trading Psycology tips:
HOW TO BALANCE YOUR LIFE AND TRADING
5 TIPS FOR SMALL ACCOUNTS
Savings Account GAINS explained
Simple Investing Strategy, Affordable for all!
Best regards,
Artem Shevelev
5 TIPS FOR SMALL ACCOUNTSHey! When we start trading we want to make a lot of money and became millionaires by the end of month. This awesome motivation could be cut off easily without following simple plan and strategy.
When I started trading I entered only with 100$ account and loose it all within a month. I didn’t payed attention to my personal financial plan and rules, which cost me a lot of losses during my first steps in trading.
Knowing this 5 tips will help you out if you just started trading and run small account.
So, 5 TIPS FOR SMALL ACCOUNTS
1. Follow financial plan, do not go all in. Yeah, to make financial plan you need to study it first, if you are without financial education. DO NOT GO ALL IN, this is not joke, stop it right now! Small is Big in trading, and watch your trades carefully.
2. Trade less instruments, trade less often. Focus. Once again, small is big. Learn one or two assets, learn their nature and regular chart behaviour. This will help you focus and start open profitable trades.
3. Avoid highly volatile assets, trade high volumes. Take one or two big volume assets and start trading on them only. Do not run into forgotten stocks or coins just because they low cost.
4. Use higher timeframes, do not scalp. Most of new traders lose money in first months just because they trying scalping, your emotions going crazy and risks increasing rapidly. Start taking one-two trades per week and see how it will go, this will release pressure and relax.
5. Accept losses, plan how much you can lose. The biggest problem of all traders is to think in percentages about losses, this way will only increase losses. Think about money and plan you affordable loss amount.
👍I appreciate your likes and comments below this post, lets discuss our problems in trading! 💬
How to Find a High Probability Trade in an Uptrend Hey Traders,
We'll show you how you can find an easy trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio using some basic concepts.
- Step One: Spot an uptrend where you have higher highs and higher lows.
- Step two: Spot the last break of structure.
- Step three: Use the Fibonacci tool and connect it from the recent lows to the recent highs.
- Step Four: Watch prices coming back to the broken structure that lines up with any Fibonacci level. ( Focus on the 50% - 61.8% - 78.6% Levels )
- Step Five: Wait for a clear bullish candle and then enter with stoploss structure
- Step Six: Take partial profits at the recent highs and the Fibonacci extensions ( - 0.27 & -0.618 )
Why the Bitcoin Halving Historically Increases PriceThe bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, is encoded into Bitcoin itself. Its purpose is to cut in half the amount of Bitcoin that is rewarded for every block that is mined, meaning you must double the processing power every four years to mine the same amount of Bitcoin. (A block reward refers to the number of bitcoins you get if you successfully mine a block of the currency . Investopedia 2023 )
This means that it becomes twice as hard for bitcoin miners to mine the same amount of bitcoin they were mining four years earlier with the same hardware. This creates what is known as a drop in supply or supply shock, where market demand either stays the same or increases, and the price of bitcoin must increase to meet the demand.
If the demand stays the same or increases, the price still has to increase because the supply of bitcoin being mined daily is half what it was in the previous four years. There are fewer coins to buy, so the market must compete by paying higher prices. Because this event is exponential, eventually hardware will not be able to keep up with the halving if miners want to be profitable.
This may seem like an oversimplification of the most basic economic principles. However, that is what is fundamentally encoded into bitcoin, which guarantees an increase in price by cutting supply every four years (guaranteed only if demand stays the same or increases). That is why bitcoin halving is referred to as a market-moving event, because not only historically has it proven to increase prices and cut supply, but fundamentally it has too.
Now let’s look at a real-life example for comparison. Gold does have real-world use in technology and jewelry. However, its main value and use are as a store of value. Most gold is bought and accumulated because it will retain its value, which is the same use case as bitcoin. What do you think would happen if the entire gold production market was slashed in half overnight and this process was repeated every four years? The price of gold would increase exponentially as the finite resource becomes more and more scarce because it is harder to mine. Now apply the same logic to bitcoin, and hopefully you will begin to see the picture.
The next bitcoin has just under 60 days coming up in mid-April 2024, so mark your calendars.
What Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to KnowWhat Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to Know.
Halving is the event of slashing Bitcoin's mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. Read all about it here.
Table of Contents
Overview
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving?
Deep Dive into Blockchain
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Why Halving Matters?
The Big Picture
What About Bitcoin’s Price?
Halving and the Way Forward
Overview
Bitcoin’s halving is a milestone event for the crypto space. Essentially, halving pushes back the moment we see all 21 million BTC tokens pulled out of their cryptographic hash puzzles.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the individual or group who created Bitcoin , programmed it to a fixed amount of 21 million coins. In other words, the total amount of Bitcoin can never exceed 21 million. Presently, miners have picked up just over 19 million through a process called Bitcoin mining.
This amount is over 90% of the total supply with mining having started with the creation of Bitcoin 15 years ago. That leaves just about 2 million tokens to be unearthed before the final Bitcoin enters our dimension. How long should we wait until this mammoth of a milestone happens? More than a century, or around the year 2140 , according to forecasting wizards.
The logic behind this peculiar mechanism lies in the so-called halving and this guide will help you understand all about it.
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Halving, in its simplest form, is the process of gradually reducing the rewards of Bitcoin mining. As we mentioned, Satoshi Nakamoto originally hard-coded Bitcoin to a fixed supply of 21 million. All of them will come to life at an increasingly slower rate. More precisely, the pace at which Bitcoin is created is “halved” every 210,000 blocks.
The current block reward is 6.25 Bitcoin as the last halving occurred on May 11th, 2020.
When's the Next Bitcoin Halving?
In April 2024, miners will add the next batch of 210,000 blocks. And that only means one thing - they will have their revenue immediately slashed in half to 3.125 Bitcoin.
All halvings are evenly spread out approximately every four years, consistent with Bitcoin’s hard-coded design. This way, supply will keep increasing, just at a slower clip. The reason is simple - the Bitcoin halving rewards will continue to reduce.
Deep Dive into Blockchain
In order for new Bitcoin to come into circulation, miners need to create blocks in a chain, hence the term ‘blockchain’.
Network operators—the hardworking miners—uncover blocks through computer-powered mining operations. These crypto diggers compute hashes as quickly as possible. What they do is search for the successful fixed-length output that they add to the block.
The more hashes per second (hashrate), the more chances for hacking out new blocks and adding them to the blockchain.
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Generally, miners have two ways to reward themselves for the effort. The first one is to earn revenue from transaction fees of users who send and receive Bitcoin. That’s when they act as decentralized network operators and validate transactions without a central authority.
At their height during the crypto boom in April 2021, the Bitcoin network fees reached as much as $60 per transaction and took hours to complete. After all, the network can only handle 4-7 transactions per second. To compare, payment giant Visa can validate 24,000 transactions per second.
Average transaction fee of Bitcoin, USD
Timeframe: April, 2021
Source: bitinfocharts.com
The other way to reward Bitcoin miners is to let them pocket the newly-minted Bitcoin contained in the block. Halving is basically a reward system for miners.
But more broadly, halving is part of the proof-of-work model associated with high levels of energy consumption. Millions of mining rigs soak up that energy and crank out new Bitcoin.
Why Halving Matters?
Halving the block reward for mining Bitcoin is a way to protect its integrity. This immutable feature of the OG crypto makes it stand out as a unique asset class. In this light, it is also an alternative to inflation-prone national currencies, also known as fiat money.
With that in mind, in a world that craves disruptive innovation, a technology that’s rewiring the global financial system has progressively moved into the limelight. The growing role of Bitcoin as a new investment vehicle is apparent, factoring in the elevated investor appetite .
Bitcoin transacts tens of billions of dollars of daily volumes, with a peak of more than $126 billion on May 19, 2021. The figure is sufficient to prove it has piqued the interest of enough crowds to form a market around it.
Before we revisit Bitcoin as an investable asset, let’s take a breather and trace the original crypto back to its origins where halving was introduced.
The Big Picture
Just over 15 years ago, the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto mined the initial “genesis” block . For the effort, the clandestine developer(s) earned a hefty reward of 50 Bitcoin. And also bothered to leave a message hooked to the chunk of transactions. The message read: " The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. "
Since then, the Bitcoin network has witnessed three halving events:
On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
On July 9, 2016, Bitcoin’s block reward was slashed from 25 per block to 12.5 BTC.
The last one occurred on May 11, 2020, when the reward was axed to 6.25 BTC.
The next Bitcoin halving event is on deck for April 19, 2024. Rewards will fall to 3.125 BTC.
The Bitcoin halving dates may vary and we're yet to get a confirmation over the next one. Estimations indicate that every 10 minutes or so all network operators add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain. With the current reward of 6.25 Bitcoin per block, miners dig out around 900 new Bitcoin a day.
At today’s prices , this is equal to around $50 million worth of Bitcoin extracted daily. This is where the halving becomes interesting not just to the geeks among us.
Halving events play a key part in shaping up supply and demand and weigh on the price of Bitcoin. Speaking of price movement, how does the rate at which new Bitcoin is churned out affect valuations?
What About Bitcoin's Price?
Bitcoin, as the world’s first cryptocurrency in a sea of many, is the quintessence of scarcity premium. Investment professionals are quick to say that Bitcoin carries a unique glamor as the only large tradeable asset with a predictable emission leading to a hard cap.
In that light, analysts consider Bitcoin to be the newest entrant in the store-of-value category. An investment product that holds its purchasing power over time. Ideally coming with consistent price increases.
This is possible thanks to halving - the brilliant mechanism hard-wired into the Bitcoin protocol. The minds behind the original digital currency conceived it as deflationary. A concept alien to the present financial system, flooded with central-bank cash and government stimulus.
The reason is that, contrary to fiat currencies that inflate over time, Bitcoin should not be debased by inflation. Satoshi Nakamoto explained this inflation-rate flaw in an online forum around the time of Bitcoin’s inception.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”
Halving and the Way Forward
If there’s a need to draw broad conclusions, here are some of the more salient points to make a compelling argument.
Bitcoin’s purchasing power is likely to avoid debasement thanks to the halving mechanism. With less than 10% of Bitcoin still to come to the surface, it will take more than 100 years for the last unmined Bitcoin to pop out.
Once all the 21 million Bitcoin spring to life, miners will no longer stake their livelihood on uncovering new tokens. Instead, they will earn revenue from network fees for their work on validating transactions. But that’s only if the network sticks to the plan.
FAQ
❔ "What is the purpose of halving?"
► Halving maintains a decreasing pace of block rewards, which emphasizes on the idea of scarcity in Bitcoin.
❔ "When is the next Bitcoin halving?"
► The next Bitcoin halving event is scheduled to occur on April 19, 2024. This date is approximate, and the actual date may be different, depending on the time it takes to complete one full batch of 210,000 blocks.
❔ "Is halving related to price increase?"
► Technically, when the supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half, and demand remains the same, prices may go up. But the price discovery of Bitcoin does not obey archetype models of economics.
❔ "When will the last Bitcoin be mined?"
► Estimates point that the last available Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140.
US30 - Perfect Zigzag Pattern ZIGZAG Pattern is made up of 3 waves were Wave A has 5 impulse waves, Wave B has 3 corrective waves, and Wave C has 5 waves. Our main focus is riding Wave C once wave B finishes its retracements to fibonacci levels. Ideally, Wave A = Wave C. This means if Wave A made 20% move, Wave C should do the same.
How to Trade Triangles.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello, Traders Investors And Community, here I show the important triangle-formations and how to trade them properly.
These formations come in every-shape from big to small in today's markets and are sometimes quite often spotted.
There are however some important and significant differences in trading them which I explain further.
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1.) Bullish Ascending Triangle
2.) Bearish Ascending Triangle
3.) Bearish Symmetrical Triangle
4.) Bullish Symmetrical Triangle
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1.) Bullish Ascending Triangle
This formation is a typical known textbook bullish uptrend-formation. Normally it develops within a bullish trend and is a continuation-formation. Suggesting
that the bulls make a break before going higher upward. It is formed by the typical horizontal higher boundary with steady-highs and the rising lower
boundary with higher-highs.
It is a logical mechanism that this formation breaks to the upside because the bulls are clearly stronger. The price projection range is taken by the first touch
with the higher boundary and the ground of the lower boundary to project the minimum target in the breakout-zone where the triangle broke out
to the upside. The triangle can be traded with immediate entry and stop-loss below the last low or conservative with the breakout to the upside.
2.) Bearish Ascending Triangle
This formation is the logical and coherent counterpart of the ascending broadening wedge, the main difference here is that it breaks to the upside and is
normally seen as a continuation to the downside. Here we see steady lows with a horizontal lower boundary and lower highs with a declining upper
boundary.
The formation breaks to the downside because the bulls getting weaker every new lower high is formed. When projecting the price to the downside we
can take the measure from the first touch with the lower boundary and the equivalent point with the higher boundary to project our minimum.
target. The triangle can be traded aggressively with entry before the breakdown or with confirmation after the breakdown.
3.) Bearish Symmetrical Triangle
Here we have an interesting formation that must conform to the downside to give us the proper signal that it is actually really a bearish symmetrical
triangle. Here we get lower highs with a descending upper boundary and higher lows with an ascending upper boundary.
This formation has also an end-date, it is the date in which the lower and upper boundary come together which means that the formation has definitely
ended at this date. We can measure our target from the touch with the lower boundary and its equivalent point at the upper boundary. The wisest
way tot trade the triangle is after the breakout and confirmation.
4.) Bullish Symmetrical Triangle
This formation is the bullish counterpart to the bearish symmetrical triangle and the difference here is that we get the first price touch with the upper
boundary indicating a bullish outcome. We see lower highs with a descending upper boundary and higher lows with an ascending lower boundary before
breaking to the upside.
The breakout can be heavy which depends on the time symmetrical triangle has confirmed, the longer we stay in the triangle the stronger the breakout
will be. We will get a minimum target when projecting the first touch of the higher boundary and its equivalent point of the lower boundary to the
point where the triangle broke to the upside. The best way to trade the triangle is after breakout and confirmation of the boundary.
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If you like this tutorial feel free to support. I also made an tutorial about broadening wedges which you find when scrolling down on my account.
Will be great to see you there. Have a good day and all the best.
Thank you.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“An investment in knowledge pays the best dividend”
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How to Trade Broadening Formations. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello traders investors and community.
Today I show some important trading formations which can help to identify a profitable trading entry in the markets.
These types are when confirmed highly probable trading set-ups to open whether a LONG or SHORT position.
In volatile markets, these formations can develop quite often.
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1.) Ascending Broadening Wedge
2.) Descending Broadening Wedge
3.) Broadening Wedge Bottoms
4.) Broadening Wedge Tops
5.) Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formations
6.) Descending Right-Angled Broadening Formations
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1.) Ascending Broadening Wedge
These wedges most often break-out in the direction where they came from. So it is a wise idea to trade the break-out in the direction, otherwise,
swing-trades can be traded from trend-line to trend-line in the broadening wedge.
The target is the full height of the pattern, from the lowest low to the highest high forming the trendlines. Identifying tradable ascending broadening wedges
can provide good risk and reward trades with high profit.
2.) Descending Broadening Wedge
This Wedge is similar to the Ascending Broadening Wedge.
We are looking for two touches for each trendline before a reversal and breakout happen as shown in my chart. The Breakout can be traded with a minimum
target of the percentage distance from the full height of the pattern, from the lowest low to the lowest high.
3.) Broadening Wedge Bottoms
Broadening Wedge Bottoms are as you can see in the picture provided in my chart. Reversals marking a significant reversal after a downtrend. The bottom is
formed with three touches of the lower trendline and three touches of the higher trendline.
The target is the highest high in the pattern minus the lowest low in the pattern.
4.) Broadening Wedge Tops
Broadeing Wedge Tops are similar to Bottoms. They develop in a rising trend forming higher highs and lower lows in a broadening scale-like seen in the
picture. Three higher highs marking the upper boundary of the formation and two lower lows marking the lower boundary of the formation.
The target projection is the same as with broadening bottoms.
5.) Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formations
They develop with a horizontal trendline and a sloping trendline. The price broadens over time in the formation forming three lows and two highs as you can
see in the chart.
The wedge breaks in the direction where it came from and can be traded either with swing trades in the wedge or with a breakout entry to
trade the breakout.
The target is the height of the complete wedge at the breakout point and is projected from the breakout in the breakout direction to determine the
minimum target.
6.) Descending Right-Angled Broadening Formations
These are the same as Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formation just with a little different structure. Here we have a horizontal lower trendline and
a sloping higher trendline which are forming the overall formation. We see two touches of the lower trendline and three touches of the higher trend-line
just as with the Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formation.
The price projection is also the same and the formation can be wisely traded in the breakout direction.
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If you like this tutorial feel free to support my work.
Thank you.
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“The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend.”
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Navigating Sympathy Plays: A Guide to Trading BITCOIN & COINBASE** Introduction **
Sympathy trading, a strategic approach rooted in both technical and fundamental analysis, capitalizes on correlated movements between assets to uncover profitable opportunities. In this article, we delve into the nuanced realm of sympathy trading using Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) as case studies, exploring how a blend of technical and fundamental analysis can enhance trading strategies.
** Understanding Sympathy Trading **
Sympathy trading hinges on discerning and exploiting the symbiotic relationship between correlated assets. It involves analyzing both technical indicators and fundamental factors to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as underlying drivers influencing price movements.
** BTCUSD and COIN: A Sympathetic Relationship **
BTCUSD and COIN exemplify a compelling case study in sympathy trading within the cryptocurrency domain. Bitcoin's price dynamics often exert a significant influence on Coinbase's stock value, reflecting the exchange's dependency on Bitcoin's performance and trading volumes.
Technical Analysis Insights:
Technical analysis provides crucial insights into price trends, momentum, and support/resistance levels. Key technical indicators for trading BTCUSD and COIN include:
1.Moving Averages: Analyzing moving average crossovers and trends helps identify potential entry or exit points. Golden crosses (short-term moving average crossing above long-term moving average) or death crosses (opposite) can signal trend reversals.
2.Volume Analysis: Monitoring trading volumes in both BTCUSD and COIN can confirm price movements and signal changes in market sentiment. An increase in volume accompanying price movements suggests stronger market conviction.
3.Chart Patterns: Identifying chart patterns such as triangles, flags, and head and shoulders formations can provide insights into potential price reversals or continuation patterns, guiding trading decisions.
Fundamental Analysis Insights:
Fundamental analysis delves into underlying factors driving asset valuations and market sentiment. Key fundamental factors influencing BTCUSD and COIN include:
1.Regulatory Developments: Changes in regulatory frameworks governing cryptocurrencies can impact investor sentiment and trading activity. Positive regulatory developments may boost confidence in BTCUSD and COIN, while regulatory uncertainties could lead to volatility.
2.User Adoption and Trading Volumes: Monitoring user adoption rates and trading volumes on Coinbase's platform can provide insights into the exchange's revenue prospects and growth trajectory. Increased user activity often correlates with higher revenues for the exchange.
3.Market Sentiment and News Catalysts: Market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, such as institutional adoption, macroeconomic factors, or geopolitical events, can influence both BTCUSD and COIN prices. News catalysts, such as product launches, partnerships, or earnings reports from Coinbase, can drive short-term price movements.
** Crafting Sympathy Strategies: **
Sympathy trading strategies integrating technical and fundamental analysis may involve:
1.Confirmation of Technical Signals: Confirming technical signals with fundamental catalysts can strengthen trading convictions. For example, if a bullish technical pattern emerges in BTCUSD, traders may look for positive fundamental catalysts supporting the uptrend in COIN.
2.Event-Based Trading: Leveraging fundamental analysis to anticipate market-moving events, traders may position themselves ahead of key announcements or developments. For instance, if positive regulatory news is expected for cryptocurrencies, traders may preemptively buy COIN in anticipation of increased trading activity.
** Risk Management Considerations: **
Effective risk management is paramount in sympathy trading to mitigate potential losses:
1.Position Sizing: Determine appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance, account capital, and trade conviction. Avoid overexposure to a single trade and diversify across multiple assets to spread risk.
2.Stop-Loss Orders: Implement stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and protect capital. Place stop-loss levels based on technical levels, volatility considerations, or predetermined risk-reward ratios.
** Case study in action **
Let's look at the charts, both on the 1W time-frame in order to catch and get an understanding of the bigger trends and see if the theory is applied on the price action.
Bitcoin has provided 5 excellent Sympathy Play signals for Coinbase in the last 2 years. Starting with a Bear Flag that was rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), Bitcoin initiated a huge decline on Coinbase (red shape), proportionally much stronger that its own. Then as its was attempting to find a market bottom, it provided 2 recovery signals that gave a proportionally bigger rise on Coinbase. Then a BTC Bull Flag again turned into a proportionally bigger rise on Coinbase with the last signal coming on October 2023.
As you can see during this significantly sample, Bitcoin tends to provide strong early buy/ sell signals on Coinbase. It is worth noting that even though Coinbase is a stock, it follows Bitcoin's price movements more closely than the S&P500 stock index, which we have illustrated on the right chart by the grey trend-line. As you can see there have been numerous occasions where Coinbase failed to follow a big stock market rally and instead was tied to BTC with the most notable examples being recently in January 2024, March 2023 and October 2022.
** A few things to consider that distinguish Bitcoin from Coinbase: **
Market Factors: Bitcoin's price is influenced by various market factors such as supply and demand dynamics, investor sentiment, macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. Coinbase's stock price, on the other hand, is influenced by factors specific to the company, including financial performance, earnings reports, regulatory compliance, competition, and market sentiment towards the cryptocurrency industry.
Liquidity and Trading Volume: Bitcoin, being the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency, typically exhibits higher liquidity and trading volume compared to Coinbase's stock. As a result, Bitcoin may experience more significant price movements and volatility compared to COIN, which could impact their respective charts differently.
Correlation vs. Causation: While Bitcoin's price movements may influence sentiment towards Coinbase and vice versa, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. While there may be periods where BTC and COIN prices move in tandem due to shared market sentiment or external factors, they are ultimately distinct assets with their own fundamental drivers.
Market Participants: Bitcoin is traded on cryptocurrency exchanges by a diverse range of market participants, including retail investors, institutional investors, miners, and traders. Coinbase's stock, on the other hand, is traded on traditional stock exchanges and may attract a different set of investors, including institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail traders.
** Conclusion: **
Sympathy trading using BTCUSD and COIN as case studies demonstrates the synergy between technical and fundamental analysis in identifying trading opportunities and managing risk. By integrating insights from both disciplines, traders can enhance their trading strategies, navigate market dynamics with confidence, and strive for consistent profitability in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
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What is TRADING PLAN and how to use it ! What is TRADING PLAN ? A trading plan is a systematic method for identifying and trading securities that takes into consideration a number of variables including time, risk and the investor’s objectives. A trading plan can help traders and investors to achieve consistent results and avoid emotional or impulsive decisions. A trading plan should be written in a clear and concise manner and be regularly reviewed and updated.
One of the main benefits of having a trading plan is that it can help traders and investors to define their personal trading style and goals. For example, some traders may prefer to trade in the forex market, which is the world’s largest financial market and offers high liquidity, around-the-clock trading and the possibility of using leverage. Other traders may opt for the stocks market, which involves buying and selling shares of well-established and financially sound companies, also known as blue chips. Blue chips are generally considered to be less volatile than forex and may offer steady growth potential and dividends to investors.
Another advantage of having a trading plan is that it can help traders and investors to identify the best trading opportunities and strategies for their chosen market and instrument.
A trading plan should include the following elements :
• Entry and exit rules : These are the criteria that determine when to open and close a position, based on technical or fundamental analysis, indicators, signals, patterns, trends, etc.
If I want to explain more, I have to say that Entry and exit rules are the criteria that determine when to open and close a position, based on technical or fundamental analysis, indicators, signals, patterns, trends, etc1. They are essential for having a trading plan and a trading strategy, as they help traders and investors to define their personal trading style and goals, identify the best trading opportunities and strategies, and manage their risk and reward.
For example, if you are a trend-following trader, you may use a moving average crossover as an entry rule, meaning that you buy when a faster moving average crosses above a slower moving average, indicating an uptrend, and you sell when the opposite happens, indicating a downtrend. You may also use a trailing stop as an exit rule, meaning that you adjust your stop-loss order to follow the price as it moves in your favor, locking in some profits and protecting yourself from a reversal.
Entry and exit rules can vary depending on the market, instrument, time frame, and trading style that you choose. They can also be combined with other tools and techniques, such as risk-reward ratio, position sizing, diversification, etc. The key is to have clear and consistent entry and exit rules that suit your trading plan and objectives, and to follow them diligently.
• Risk management : Risk management is the process of controlling the potential losses and maximizing the potential gains of each trade, by using tools such as stop-loss orders, profit targets, position sizing, diversification, etc. Risk management helps traders and investors to protect their trading accounts from losing all of its money and to achieve consistent results.
Some common risk management strategies for traders are2:
Determining your risk appetite : This means knowing how much you are willing to risk on each trade, based on your trading goals, capital, and risk tolerance. A common rule of thumb is to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade.
Knowing your risk-reward ratio : This means calculating the expected return of each trade, compared to the potential loss. A risk-reward ratio of 2:1 or higher is generally considered favorable, meaning that the potential profit is twice as large as the potential loss.
Using stop-loss orders : These are orders that automatically close your position when the price reaches a certain level, to limit your losses. Stop-loss orders can be fixed or trailing, meaning that they can follow the price as it moves in your favor.
Using profit targets : These are orders that automatically close your position when the price reaches a certain level, to lock in your profits. Profit targets can help you to exit the market at the optimal time and avoid greed or fear.
Position sizing : This means adjusting the size of your position according to your risk appetite, risk-reward ratio, and market conditions. Position sizing can help you to balance your portfolio and diversify your risk.
Diversification : This means spreading your risk across different markets, instruments, time frames, and strategies. Diversification can help you to reduce your exposure to specific risks and increase your chances of success.
Risk management is an essential but often overlooked prerequisite to successful trading. By following a rational and objective approach to risk management, you can avoid common pitfalls such as overtrading, undertrading, revenge trading, fear of missing out, etc. Risk management can also increase your confidence, discipline, and consistency, which are vital for success in the financial markets.
• Performance evaluation : This is the method of measuring and analyzing the results of the trading plan, by using metrics such as win rate, risk-reward ratio, drawdown, return on investment, etc.
A trading plan is not a static document, but a dynamic one that should be adapted to the changing market conditions and the trader’s or investor’s experience and skills. A trading plan should be tested and backtested before being implemented in the live market, and should be reviewed and revised periodically to ensure its effectiveness and suitability.
Having a trading plan in forex and stocks market can help traders and investors to achieve their financial goals and avoid common pitfalls such as overtrading, undertrading, revenge trading, fear of missing out, etc. A trading plan can also increase the trader’s or investor’s confidence, discipline and consistency, which are essential for success in the financial markets.
KEY POINTS :
A trading plan is a systematic method for identifying and trading securities in the forex and stocks market.
A trading plan can help traders and investors to achieve consistent results and avoid emotional or impulsive decisions.
A trading plan should include entry and exit rules, risk management, and performance evaluation.
A trading plan should be written, tested, reviewed, and updated regularly.
A trading plan can increase the trader’s or investor’s confidence, discipline, and consistency.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money.
The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below.
I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different.
So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m.
The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897.
Let's call it a little over 820 Billion.
At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion.
Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029.
This is only one aspect of the story.
Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent"
Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now.
Here's the actual chart.
What does this mean?
Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH.
Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH.
So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too.
Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's.
I've posted several times about the current COT landscape.
Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise.
Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity.
So why is this different?
I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move.
The second option was bearish.
Well, I guess the second move played out.
The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching.
Look at the momentum
People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again.
This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings.
All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic.
I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards.
They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold.
When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset.
This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin.
Hence it fits into the greater fool theory.
If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200.
You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do.
The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k.
These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch?
So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k.
Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET...
Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post.
Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Open Interest - Deciphering Bitcoin's Market SentimentIn the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading, Bitcoin often serves as a beacon, reflecting broader market sentiment through its dynamic price movements and trading metrics. Today, let's explore the intricacies of Bitcoin's market dynamics by dissecting Open Interest (OI), funding rates, liquidations, and long/short ratios—using current data as our live case study.
What do we see? (follow the steps)
1) Price action . Essential to understand it before the usage of any indicator.
2) Open Interest , the total number of outstanding derivative contracts like futures and options, provides a window into market activity. An increase in OI alongside a rising BTC price suggests new money might be entering, potentially signalling bullish sentiment. Conversely, decreasing OI during price drops might indicate a bearish outlook. Currently, we observe a slight uptick in OI as BTC recovers from a dip, hinting at growing confidence among traders.
3) The funding rate , specific to perpetual contracts, reflects periodic payments between longs and shorts. A positive rate, where longs pay shorts, suggests a bullish consensus, as it's costlier to maintain long positions. Presently, BTC's slightly positive funding rate aligns with its uptrend, indicating that traders might be anticipating further price increases.
4) Liquidations occur when a trader's position is closed by the exchange due to a margin call. A cluster of liquidations often follows a sharp price movement, as we've recently seen with BTC. These liquidation spikes could suggest that overleveraged positions have been flushed out, which can sometimes signal a local price bottom and a potential reversal point, paving the way for a more sustained upward trend.
5) The ratio of long to short positions tells us about the prevailing market bias. A ratio significantly above 50 indicates a bullish majority, which is currently the case with BTC. This higher long/short ratio could be interpreted as a market leaning towards optimism.
As always, I hope you found this insightful and have a lovely Sunday! ;)
Examples of how to draw and use trend linesHello traders!
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Please also click “Boost”.
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(1W chart)
Usually, the way to draw a trend line is to connect the high point and the high point where the trend changes, or to connect the low point and the low point to display the trend line.
Then, a channel is formed to express movement within that channel.
It is a relatively simple analysis tool that anyone with a good understanding of charts can draw trend lines.
However, I think whether you can use it in actual trading depends on how much you trust the trend line.
However, due to the nature of the trend line, it is expressed as a diagonal line, so it has a fundamental problem that it is not easy to respond even if it deviates from the trend line.
So, in order to trade with information obtained from chart analysis, you must draw support and resistance points close to the horizontal line.
Therefore, in chart analysis, you must have a basic understanding of the candle arrangement.
In my chart, the StochRSI indicator is
1. Use the waves of the StochRSI indicator to check support and resistance at support and resistance points.
2. Used to draw trend lines.
When drawing a trend line with the StochRSI indicator, the oversold section is below 20, the overbought section is above 80, and the trend line is drawn by connecting the points where the vertices are created.
However, the trend line drawn between high points is drawn based on the opening price of the falling candle.
Therefore, draw a trend line by selecting the peak of the StochRSI indicator or the opening price of the nearest bearish candle.
You can draw a trend line by connecting the low points of candles corresponding to the vertices of the trend line, which is drawn by connecting the low points.
For detailed instructions, please refer to the trend line displayed on the chart.
Among the trend lines drawn on the chart, I think that the trend line drawn almost horizontally is actually important.
Otherwise, I think it is a trend line drawn for chart analysis because it is difficult to use diagonal trend lines for trading.
In order to utilize a trend line expressed as a diagonal line, support and resistance points must be displayed together to be considered a trend line that can be used for trading.
When using various chart tools that are used by specifying a selection point, how the selection point is specified is very important.
Therefore, if the criteria are not clear when specifying the selection point, what is drawn using various chart tools cannot be trusted.
To solve this problem to some extent, we used the StochRSI indicator to draw a trend line.
(1D chart)
If you look at the trend lines drawn on the 1D chart, you can see that the two trend lines at the current price position are drawn close to the horizon.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained by breaking above the trend line of 1.
If this is not the case and it falls below trend line 2, it can be seen that there is a high possibility that it will lead to a further decline.
In that sense, the key is whether it can rise above the HA-High indicator, that is, above 43K.
If it falls, it is likely to touch the HA-Low indicator, so it is important to check for support near the HA-Low indicator when it is generated.
When drawing a trend line using the StochRSI indicator, vertices formed outside of oversold or overbought areas are excluded.
The reason is that the upward or downward intensity is weak.
This is to prevent confusion because if the rising or falling strength is weak, it is likely to be a fake or whipsaw.
It is important to draw in a way that has a solid basis so that you can trust the tools you draw on the chart.
StochRSI settings : 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D)
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Most Powerful Candlestick Patterns Candlestick patterns are like building blocks in understanding how the stock market behaves and how prices might change. Knowing about these patterns can really help you make smarter decisions when trading.
I. Introduction to 35 Candlestick Patterns
Candlestick patterns are visual representations of price movements within a specific time frame. Each candlestick represents the opening, closing, high, and low prices for that period.
The body of the candlestick is the difference between the opening and closing prices, while the wicks or shadows represent the price range.
II. Bullish Candlestick Patterns
A bullish candlestick pattern is essentially a visual signal that appears on a price chart, indicating a potential upward momentum or trend in the market. It’s like a green light for traders, suggesting that the price of the asset is likely to go up.
Traders use these patterns to time their entry into the market with the goal of capitalizing on the anticipated price increase.
Bullish Single Candlestick Patterns:
Hammer: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a small body and a long lower wick, signaling a potential bullish reversal after a downtrend.
Inverted Hammer: Another single candlestick pattern with a small body and a long upper wick, indicating a potential bullish reversal after a downtrend.
Black Marubozu: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a long black body with no shadows, representing a strong bearish sentiment.
White Marubozu: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a long white body with no shadows, representing a strong bullish sentiment
Bullish Double Candle Patterns:
Bullish Engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle that engulfs the previous one, suggesting a potential trend reversal to the upside.
Bullish Piercing Pattern: A two-candle pattern starting with a bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that opens below the previous day’s low and closes more than halfway into the prior bearish candle.
Bullish Counterattack: A two-candle pattern starting with a bearish candle, followed by a larger bullish candle that engulfs the entire range of the previous bearish candle.
Tweezer Bottom: A two-candle pattern occurring after a downtrend, characterized by two consecutive bearish candles with similar lows, suggesting potential support and a bullish reversal.
Mat Hold: A five-candle pattern suggesting a continuation of a bullish trend. It begins with a bullish candle followed by a bearish candle, a long bullish candle, a small bullish or bearish candle, and ends with another bullish candle.
Bullish Triple Candle-Sticks Pattern:
Morning Star Pattern: A three-candle pattern starting with a bearish candle, followed by a small indecisive candle (often a doji), and then a bullish candle, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
Three White Soldiers: A bullish formation consisting of three consecutive long bullish candles. Each candle closes higher than the previous one, suggesting a strong potential upward movement.
Rising Three Methods: A five-candle pattern signaling a continuation of the current bullish trend. It starts with a long bullish candle, followed by three smaller bearish candles, and ends with another long bullish candle.
Upside Tasuki Gap: A three-candle pattern involving a bullish candle, a gap up, a bearish candle, and finally another bullish candle that opens within the range of the previous bearish candle.
III. Bearish Candlestick Patterns
A bearish candlestick pattern is a visual cue on a price chart that suggests a potential downward momentum or trend in the market. It’s akin to a red light for traders, indicating that the price of the asset is likely to decrease. Traders pay close attention to these patterns to time their entry into the market, aiming to profit from the expected price decline.
Single Candle Patterns:
Hanging Man: A single candlestick pattern resembling a hanging man, signaling a potential bearish reversal after an uptrend. Learn more about Hanging Man Candlestick
Shooting Star Pattern: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a small body and a long upper wick, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.
Bearish Engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a small bullish candle is followed by a larger bearish candle that engulfs the previous one, indicating a potential trend reversal to the downside.
Black Marubozu: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a long black body with no shadows, representing a strong bearish sentiment.
Double Candle Patterns:
Evening Star Pattern: A three-candle formation indicating a potential bearish reversal. It starts with a bullish candle, followed by a small indecisive candle and ends with a bearish candle.
Dark Cloud Cover: A two-candle pattern starting with a bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle that opens above the previous day’s high and closes more than halfway into the prior bullish candle.
Bearish Harami: A two-candle pattern. The first candle is a large bullish one, followed by a smaller bearish candle that is entirely within the range of the bullish candle. This pattern indicates a potential bearish reversal.
Bearish Counterattack: A two-candle pattern starting with a bullish candle, followed by a larger bearish candle that engulfs the entire range of the previous bullish candle.
On-Neck Pattern: A two-candle pattern where the first day has a long black body followed by a second day with a small body that closes slightly above the previous day’s low.
Triple Candle Patterns:
Three Black Crows: A bearish formation consisting of three consecutive long bearish candles. Each candle closes lower than the previous one, suggesting a strong potential downward movement.
Three Inside Down: A bearish reversal pattern. It consists of a bullish candle, a smaller bearish candle that is completely within the range of the previous candle, and a larger bearish candle.
Three Outside Down: A three-candle pattern. It starts with a bullish candle, followed by a larger bearish candle that completely engulfs the previous bullish candle, and then another bearish candle.
Neutral Candlestick Pattern
A neutral candlestick pattern doesn’t strongly indicate either a bullish or bearish trend. It’s like a yellow light, suggesting caution and indicating that the market is uncertain or indecisive about its direction. Traders look at these patterns to assess the market’s stability or potential upcoming change in trend.
Single Candle Patterns: [/b
Doji: A single candlestick pattern with a small body, indicating market indecision. It suggests a potential trend reversal, whether bullish or bearish.
Spinning Top: A single candlestick pattern with a small body and long upper and lower wicks, signaling market indecision and potential trend reversal.
High Wave: A single candlestick pattern characterized by a long upper and lower wick relative to the body, suggesting high market volatility and uncertainty.
Double Candle Patterns:
Tweezer Top: A two-candle pattern occurring after an uptrend, characterized by two consecutive bullish candles with similar highs, suggesting potential resistance and a bearish reversal
DWEB levels and local price trends #BTC This chart is for intermediate DWEB users for learning purposes and or for followers to use for trading this local price action. If trends fail look for the next trends and levels for confluence against a system you already trust. Trends are #1 and levels are #2. Trade this chart with more trust as the price respects the lines and or this chart aligns with your other charts (confluence).
By using the nodes and trends from DWEB , I was able to cast some unique visuals in terms of trends and levels. Using different candle intervals can often provide some hidden data. Often when you inverse the default intervals and indicators , you unhide even more data that is unseen by most. DWEB is very strict in it's parameters and often only makes minor adjustments between macro and micro charts.
The thresholds of ranges where DWEB makes wider changes to its parameters is listed below.
1 to 314 minutes
314 to 888 minutes
888 minutes to 1444 minutes
1D TO 3 D
3D to 1W
1W to 9D.
With DWEB on
Introduction to one of the basic trading methodsHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
Basic trading method
(How to purchase)
1. Aggressive buying when falling by more than -10%
2-1. Buy when there is an upward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle is a downward candle.
2-2. Buy when there is a downward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained below the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle breaks upward through important support and resistance points.
Therefore, buy when there is a rising candle.
(Selling method)
1. Split sale when it rises by more than +10%
2. Split selling when the high point cannot be renewed
-------------------------------------------------
The basic trading methods introduced above are methods that can be traded even if you are not familiar with chart analysis.
Among these, I will take the time to explain the trading method corresponding to 2-2 of the purchasing method.
You can know the trend based on the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
Currently, it has fallen below the MS-Signal indicator, and the MS-Signal indicator has been converted to a downward indication.
Therefore, it should be interpreted that there is a high possibility that the current downward trend will continue.
Therefore, in the basic trading method, you should buy when the candle is below the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, when it is in a downtrend.
Therefore, you should buy after confirming that the price breaks above the support and resistance points.
Basically, you can trade using HA-High, HA-Low indicators and box sections.
If you purchased when it fell more than -10% on January 12, you can proceed with a second purchase if it rises above the HA-High indicator.
You can proceed with aggressive buying when the HA-High indicator breaks above the 43450.03 point.
In that case, you will have to sell it in installments when it appears to be rising and then falling.
If you don't like it, you should check for support at 43450.03.
In order to confirm support, it is necessary to check for at least 1-3 days after rising above 43450.03.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------