Answering your questions...1. What is the mirror level?
To answer this question, we should remember the general meaning of support and resistance. Support represents the situation in which the price constantly goes down, then reaches a certain price point, and ceases to decline. Resistance shows just the opposite situation: the price constantly rises, then reaches a certain price level and, suddenly, ceases to rise.
2. What is the Historical Level?
If the price dropped dramatically and after some time approaching that level again we have a huge possibility for the repeat. It can be a all-time high or all-time low. It doesn't matter. I see a price reaction near such levels almost every time when the pair approach it.
3. What is False breakout?
False-breakouts are exactly what they sound like: a breakout that failed to continue beyond a level, resulting in a ‘false’ breakout of that level. A false-break of a level can be thought of as a ‘deception’ by the market because it looks like price will breakout but then it quickly reverses, deceiving all those who took the ‘bait’ of the breakout. It’s often the case that amateurs will enter what looks like an ‘obvious’ breakout and then the professionals will push the market back the other way false breakout is essentially a ‘contrarian’ move in the market that ‘flushes’ out those traders who may have entered on emotion, rather than logic and forward thinking.
4. What is squeezing?
When a large number of traders are forced out of their positions due to sudden rising or falling prices, it is known as a market squeeze. Some high-volume markets are more susceptible to squeezes than others, but the general assumption is that it can happen in any market at any time.
Market squeezes can be either long or short. In this example, we’ll look at long squeez.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
SPX needs Bitcoin/Crypto to go parabolic more than SPX to......SPX needs Bitcoin/Crypto to go parabolic more than SPX to break out of ATH. CAVEAT - small sample size. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
Used Blue Verticals From Analysis Of SPX Below
Max healthy pullback in this analysis <7% from ATH . Max danger if market drops >9.89%. NOT ADVICE DYOR
Construction Details:-
All verticals where Histogram >0 but trending down i.e. light green. All horizontals are previous highs before histogram started trending down. Blue vertical indicates where price subsequently broke through two horizontal supports. Green diagonals oddly both equal roughly same percentage rise.
Risk-To-Reward-Calculation with Key-Components.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello Traders Investors And Community.
Welcome to this educational idea about the risk-reward-calculation in position trading with the 5-Key-Components determined. Today's markets constantly
changing and adapting and in such environments, we need to stick to a systematic trading approach to have the long term goals realized and do not fall
apart of market-making and smart money operators, when considering position-trading there are some important steps in acquiring the long-term-success
we should take apart when calculating the right risk in comparison to our capital and other key-steps to measure what trading is the best for ones
individual trading-system to achieve the aims we desire.
Therefore I contributed the 5-Key-Components inevitable to measure one's risk-to-reward in the market and best applied in a functional trading-system.
1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
5.) Possibilities of Success and Ruin
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1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
1. First Rule: Do not hold the position longer than necessary:
It is important to choose a trading-system which has good entry timing and the right opportunities to exit therefore it is the best to be in the market when
volatility increases and takes profit at the important levels to not hold the position unnecessarily longer.
2. Second Rule: Aim to make as much as possible by risking as little as possible:
When trading we should advance by making the most of what we have at hand, today's markets offer options with leveraged trading which can work also
with smaller percentages of the deposit at hand, in this case, the leverage should be calculated right.
3. Third Rule: Only risk a small amount of capital on any trade executed:
It is commonly under beginner traders to risk a high percentage of the total deposit, this is a fatal mistake as the risk grows exponentially, to achieve security
of the deposit in the long-run, the maximum risk per trade should not be more than 10% from the deposit, best is 0.5-2%.
4. Fourth Rule: Don't come to the situation to meet margin calls:
This means you should avoid being marginally called on any occasions, when this happens there is evidence that the trade was too risky and the stop-loss
better be placed before the margin call, when it happens, it should be a time to review your trading-system.
5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
Before every trade you should measure how your position size with the stop-loss will possibly take a drawdown in the deposit. When the risk is too high
then the smaller position should be preferred, when it is still too risky than a bigger account will be a good option.
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2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
This is a very important step in determining ones individual trading-systems, as traders act differently to circumstances some traders are risk-averse and
others are risk-seeking, this means how the trader is reacting to risk and how much the individual would risk receiving a return.
In the graph, you can see that the lesser your capital is the higher your risk-seeking, you are more ready to risk something averagely when your capital
is lower, this diminishes the higher your capital is, there are different risk preferences reaching from extreme risk averter to extreme risk seeker.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
In the big table in my chart you can see the risk-to-reward calculation and the values in it, the first value is the risk meaning how much you want to risk
in the particular trade coming to the second value, the return is what you get in return on your trade.
For example, you want to buy bitcoin at 15000 and have set the target at 15010, by the technical analysis you have determine a stop-loss at 14500, this will
be a highly risky trade as you are risking to lose 500 points comparison to 10 points.
The best trades are in the green section on the table beginning with trades where you gain 2 and risk 1, these trades should be the aim and preferred,
the breakeven ratio determines how much trades need to go in breakeven to be long-time profitable.
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4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
This rate is showing you how your trading develops by time, when you have a good winrate this means you are closing many of your positions in a profit
on the other side when this winrate is low you closing too many positions in a loss and often be unprofitable in the long-run.
What determines an excellent trader now as it is marked in the chart is when the average risk-reward ratio is high and the winrate also, this means you close
many of your positions in a profit and also with the proper risk-reward-ratio.
On the middle of the chart is the threshold determining low and high, you can also be profitable when your risk-reward is high and your win rate low or in
reverse, what should definitely be avoided is when both the winrate and ratio are lows this means you have to adapt your trading-system for sure.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
This is a simple but very effective and important graphic showing the likelihood traders have for a point of ruin and how much the risk of ruin in
comparison to it is, meaning when your deposit is at a level on which there is no longer possibility to continue.
This graphic shows that when your capital is more your risk of losing it diminishes, on the other side when it is low the possibility for losses is more as
the capital is not big to stand the losses, this is a groundstone knowledge in determining the trading-system together with risk.
The graphic shows that the higher your deposit is the better you can take the risks in comparison and the lower it is the higher is the risk of losing more,
this is why it is important to combine the risk together with a solid portfolio.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Alright, these where the 5 key-components to determine risk in markets accordingly, traders should always look for the individual situation and where the
journeys should lead, therefore it is important to determine the risks in comparison to rewards which I bundled into the 5 Key-components necessary
determining the risk-management in ones trading-system, these components can be combined applied, or single integrated into ones trading-system.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
In this manner, thank you for watching , support for more tutorials and a good day!
"Good luck is when opportunity meets preparation."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Understanding Risk/Reward through Bitcoin's CME Futures GapsIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
In this post, I will be explaining the concept of the Risk/Reward Ratio, also known as the RRR, and the significance of this idea when it comes to trading.
I will also be explaining how this can be applied to Bitcoin's CME Futures Chart on the daily, in regards to gaps.
Analysis
- To begin with, Bitcoin's CME Futures chart shows a huge gap leading down to 9.6k
- Unfortunately, this gap is yet to be filled.
- Given that 99% of gaps that have been created get filled some time in the future, it's likely that this gap will fill as well
- However, solely approaching the chart from the perspective of gaps has its limitations
- For instance, the gap at 11.4k took almost a year to fill.
- As such, gaps don't provide us with a specified time frame as a reference
- Should we fill the gap right now, and bounce at gap support, that would be a 7% move downwards from the current price
- Should we see a stronger bearish price movement that extends below the price gap, we could see a 15% move downwards based on support levels
- The gap support at 8.8k converges with the descending trend line support on the weekly, as well as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support (refer to our previous analysis)
- As such, it's reasonable to conclude that a bearish price movement over 15% is less probable.
- On the bright side, it's also important to note that there are some gaps above the current price, indicating potentiality for bullishness
- There is a wide gap at 10.5k levels, and another one at 11.4k
- Given this information, we can estimate our risk/reward when entering a position at current levels
- Splitting our entries into three different levels, we can:
1. Enter at the current price of 10.2k
2. Dollar Cost Average (DCA) at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support at 9.4k
3. Enter at gap support around 8.8k
- This way, we know that our risk is limited, and that the upside remains huge, due to the overall trend being bullish.
- Based on significant support and resistance levels, a trader would then calculate his stop loss target and take profit targets according to his risk appetite.
Conclusion
The trend is your friend. While the short term trend may appear bullish, it could be said that the overall trend for the long term remains bullish. As such, it would be better to look for spot/long entries near support.
Don't predict the market. Take it by levels, and play by probabilities.
- Michael Wang-
Everything you need to know about auto Market Making in DeFiAn Introduction To Automated Market Makers
I wanted to explore the token economics of ZRX and Kyber for this issue of the newsletter but given the rising interest in “yield”, I just thought it would be good to summarise how non-lending platforms are beginning to leverage idle capital to offer a return. In particular, we will explore Curve, Balancer and Uniswap for this piece. The three holds one thing in common - they are critical infrastructure to exchange one digital asset to another without requiring a centralised custodian. To understand their role, we will need to know why they matter first.
Note : This piece is written with people may not have historical context to DeFi or why any of this matters in mind. You may skip to the parts starting with Uniswap if you don’t need all that context building.
The Why And What
The trade of digital assets from one to another has been heavily reliant on trust. Remember the guy who sold his pizza for 10,000 Bitcoins? He had to ensure the person he was transferring Bitcoins to would not vanish with his coins. One way this used to happen in Bitcoin forums and IRC channels was by trusting the reputation scores of an individual engaging in a trade. This is common in all P2P trading. Factors like the age of the account and frequency of transactions are a core part of platforms like Craiglist and LocalBitcoins. It came with the risk of individuals scamming once the trust was earned. With the arrival of exchanges like Coinbase and Mt Gox, the need for trusting reputation scores vanished. Individuals could deposit on a centralised account and trade with one another. However, custodial risk came along with it. As we saw with Mt Gox, the custodial risk of depositing with a central party is quite high.
As the number of digital assets in the ecosystem rose with developers increasingly issuing their tokens, centralised exchanges became gate-keepers of liquidity. It used to be common for exchanges to demand over a million dollars to list a token. “Value-added-services” like market-making for the asset or sending e-mails to their user-base used to be sold. The challenge with this is that it put teams with lesser resources at a disadvantageous position. While centralised exchanges have played their role, it became impractical over time to rely on them for go-to-market. As the number of digital assets in our ecosystem increases in the form of NFTs, personal tokens and other representations of value on-chain, it will become necessary to have infrastructure that enables the exchange of one asset to another without a central party. This is where automated market makers and liquidity pools play a role. It is about replacing the gate-keepers with lines of code.
An automated market-maker makes it possible to list and exchange digital assets without the help of an order-book. Unlike decentralised exchanges - there is nobody putting in ask and bid orders for an asset. A formulaic approach is used to determine the price of an asset. What this means is the price of the assets in an automated market-maker product moves only when a trade occurs and as such may be less susceptible to external manipulation. For assets such as Ethereum that are also listed on centralised exchanges, occasionally the prices may diverge from what it is on an exchange. In these instances, it becomes profitable to arbitrage and bring the price on the AMM to parity. Automated market-makers are crucial as one could bootstrap liquidity with fewer resources at play and as the name suggests - without a market-maker. Products like 0x and Kyber work as there are incentives for people to make trades on them. Automated market-makers on the other hand incentivise those that commit to providing liquidity (as idle assets) with yield that comes as a result of trading fees and token rewards.
Jargon Explainers
In the context of exchange-related yield solutions, there are three primary projects to know about - Uniswap, Curve.fi and Balancer. Each of them has its incentive mechanisms as we will see shortly. But before we dive into that, there are two concepts to be aware of.
1. Liquidity Pool - Consider this the total of assets that have been provided to a platform like Uniswap to enable users to trade one asset to another. It is the combined balance of user-deposits from individuals looking to create yield. The larger the size of a liquidity pool, the more likely that it can absorb large trades in short periods. This matters as one of the key criticisms of decentralised finance today is the inability to exchange over $100,000 worth of a digital asset to another without what is referred to as slippage. Slippage can be described as the difference in the price you were hoping to receive and the one you actually paid for an asset while trading it.
2. Impermanent Loss - In providing digital assets to platforms like Uniswap, there is the risk that your asset is unable to trade back to its initial value and that means you take a loss by partaking in the liquidity pool. The reason for this is explained further below in the context of each platform. But here’s what you need to know for now. Impermanent loss emerges from a situation where traders have no incentive to take a trade - leading to those that provided an asset to a liquidity pool in hopes of generating a yield losing money. They are primarily the result of a situation where an asset trades at a discount on a decentralised platform in comparison to what it is being traded at on a centralised exchange. For more on the concept of liquidity pools, I suggest reading this article by Pintail.
3. Liquidity Mining - The act of providing assets to a market to receive rewards that may be denominated in the platform’s tokens. The individual providing the liquidity takes on the risk of the assets provided fluctuating in price but has the benefit of selling reward tokens for dollars and maximising yield. This was common in certain Asian exchanges in 2018. Sadly, since the immediate response of anyone receiving these reward tokens is to sell, the price trends downwards over time.
With those three in context - let’s look at how the prominent automated market-makers of the industry work and what incentives users have.
Uniswap
Uniswap runs on a simple equation that follows the model of x*y=k. Where K is a constant. In a hypothetical situation, consider a pool that has been seeded with 50 Ethereum and 10,000 USD and K to be constant at 10,000. Y here will be the price of the asset.
Assuming x is the supply of Ethereum (50), Y will be the price at which ETH is traded.
In this case that will be 10,0000/50 = 200 as we have k=10,000 as a constant. If someone comes and buys Ethereum, they will remove Ethereum (x) and add to the dollar amount in the pool.
Assume they purchased two Ethereum at 200. This will make the x value 48, and change the value of y. Since the value K here is a constant, the price of Ethereum will need to change for it to be the same. To calculate this - we consider 10,000 / 48 = $208 to be the new price.
Similarly, in the next trade, if someone decides on selling a huge amount of Ethereum, the supply of Ethereum in the pool will increase. Assume someone wishes to sell 7 Ethereum after a while. Total ETH on the pool will be 48 (from previous balance) + 7 = 55 ETH. Since x here is now 55, there will need to be a change in the value of y (price) to reflect the new supply and demand.
Since k is 10,000 , we divide it by 55 to receive the new price. In this case that would come to $181. The supply of dollars in the pool now would be 10,400- (7*181) = $9133
As you can see, an algorithmic approach to price discovery has its advantage in the sense that it can discover price without an order-book in the way a centralised exchange does. It also makes manipulation less likely as you cannot see the orders of other traders in these instances. The challenge here is that price swings wildly if the amount of ETH or dollars in a liquidity pool is not high enough. The high volatility is part of what makes Uniswap risky. More importantly, those providing liquidity to a pool can stand to lose their yield in a pool if a large order moves the price in one direction and new trades don’t replenish the pool. I suggest exploring this paper for more on arbitrage opportunities on Uniswap. The critical difference between Uniswap and Curve is that in the former, liquidity is split across a wide variety of assets which can often lead to pricing inefficiency. On Curve in contract, it is concentrated on a handful of assets that are primarily stablecoins at price-points that are within a few percentage points of $1. Tokens like UMA protocol have begun issuing directly on Uniswap as it allows the market to determine the price of an asset without the centralised exchanges getting involved for hefty fees.
Incentive Mechanisms in Uniswap: Uniswap charges a 0.3% fee on all trades that occur through the platform. When an individual redeems their pool tokens, they receive a part of the fees generated in proportion to the amount of the pool they seeded liquidity with. The challenge here is fees generated are entirely reliant on the number and size of trades that occur through the automated market-maker. If there is a shortage of trades occurring on the platform, there may be no incentive for individuals to provide liquidity to the platform itself.
Curve. fi
If you could remove the high volatility of assets on Uniswap and exchange solely between stable currencies, then you could stand to benefit from the fees while reducing the probability of impermanent losses. Curve.fi focuses specifically on this philosophy. Individuals can add liquidity in stable dollars, enable the trade of different pairs of USD (eg: DAI, USDT, USDC) and swap between them. Since they all trade more or less around $1, the losses that occur are lower due to impermanent losses are lower due to lower volatility. The ‘brilliance” here is on focusing on the stability of the asset and volume. Curve is routinely able to absorb volumes in the hundreds of thousands of dollars with relatively low slippages due to the large liquidity pools it has. More importantly, since the platform primarily focuses on stablecoins, it needs to give liquidity only around a few percentage points of $1 and concentrate much of its liquidity on dollar-denominated assets. As you can see, the bulk of the volume has come from stablecoins and more recently between different variants of wrapped Bitcoin.
www.curve.fi
You can read more about how Curve works in their whitepaper or this well-written FAQ . Kerman Kohli has a brief explanation of how Curve functions in the video shown below.
www.youtube.com
Incentive Mechanism in Curve: Curve has a 0.04% fees associated with each trade on it. This is distributed to those that provide tokens to offer liquidity on the platform. Unused tokens in Curve are also converted to cTokens (compound tokens) to receive yield from providing loans on the platform. This ensures users receive a base interest fee (from Compound) and an additional return from market-making that occurs on Curve itself. There have been mentions of a token launching, but the specifics are not released yet.
Balancer
Balancer is more interesting as it allows individuals to have a mix of tokens allocated to a pool. They describe themselves as an ETF turned on its head. Instead of paying traders a fee to manage a pool, Balancer makes it possible for individuals to earn on providing liquidity to a pool. In other words - they determine the amount and mix of assets they would like to hold and receive a fee for providing it to a pool. While the formula behind Balancer is slightly complicated to summarise in this piece, here’s how it differs fundamentally.
- Instead of just two assets, Balancer is able to take on a mix of assets. This means a portfolio that has been constructed by someone looking to hold can be absorbed by the system. According to their FAQ , the maximum of the mix is at eight as of now.
- Balancer allows custom pool balances. What this means is someone with a substantial amount of token “x” looking to provide liquidity in ETH, can make a pool that is balanced 80% in token x and 20% in ETH . Making it easier for altcoins to offer a liquidity mechanism without requiring a centralised exchange.
- Fees on Balancer can be set as per the liquidity provider’s provisioning. It ranges from 0.0001% to 10%.
The incentive mechanism that is at play in Balancer is the yield that comes from the trading pool. All of the fees that is set by the pool goes back to the liquidity providers on Balancer as of now. This means individuals inherently have a predisposition towards having higher fees since it is a variable that can be set by the pool. If a pool has a very high fee individuals have no incentive to trade on Balancer as centralised exchanges will have a better fee offering. Therefore lower fees are incentivised in terms of token rewards given. The entire specification of their liquidity mining can be read here .
cdn.substack.com
The traders on Balancer jumped over 20 times (~70 to 1400+) due to the token based incentives that kicked in. Balancer has over $40 million in volume so far.
Why is Balancer all over the news? : Apart from the fact that Balancer is one of the projects that have shown traction and gradually tokenised themselves, there is the fact that the first tranch of balancer rewards have just gone out. Of the 100 million Balancer tokens that will be in existence, 25 million are allocated to founders and investors. Balancer has raised $3 million at an initial price of $0.6 per token. As of writing this, it trades at $13. Roughly 7.5 million Balancer tokens will be released over a year. In the past week ~435k tokens were issued to those providing liquidity over the past 3 weeks. High token price for Balancer means individuals can benefit from the tokens they resceive as a reward (sold on the market) and the yield on the underlying assets they provide. As we saw with Compound, this will be interesting as long as the price of the reward assets stays high.
What could be the future of AMMs?
Automated market-makers have been perfected slowly over multiple years and the recent push to decentralise governance through tokens has pushed for new levels of interest in them. A common theme we are seeing is the gradual push to releasing a token and allowing the community to have governance of the project itself. This works as long as the returns of governance (eg: fees) themselves are worth more than the opportunity cost of not doing so. What does this mean? Currently being a LP on Balancer would make sense considering the risks involved because of the high price of the token today ($13). However, as it goes lower - if the volume on the platform itself does not surge high enough to create sufficient revenue from the fees, it won’t be long before liquidity providers lose interest. As of writing this, cumulative revenue on Balancer is at $140k on a total volume of $40 million so far. If that figure does not grow over time, incentivised liquidity providers may leave the platform. The counter-argument to this is that since incentivised reward on AMMs like Balancer is proportional to the share of the pool an individual is providing liquidity to, the rewards one receives increases as other liquidity providers leave. The higher amount in Balancer token rewards will justify LPs to stay.
For now, it is safe to say that the interest in the underlying token itself is what is driving interest. For more established platforms like Uniswap, the volume has reached a large enough number to justify continued interest. For context Uniswap alone had $169 million in volume over the last seven days. That is over $570,000 a week to be distributed in fees. Since the figure is relatively high, individuals will be interested in how the governance of the platform will function. In other words - decentralised projects like AMMs will need high amounts in revenue to be able to justify premiums for their governance tokens. I would argue that this is a better model than traditional venture capital as it ensures dead projects with no revenue to show don’t last around as zombies on private money infusion for years. The fluidity of capital in DeFi would mean large liquidity providers move capital around to platforms with the highest yield at all times.
I am excited for the innovation this space could bring. The idea that you can mix in a bunch of assets and have a market running for it with just code and formula could be used in a mix of ways. For one, personal tokens are already being traded on Balancer. In the future, I won’t be surprised to see tokenised intellectual property rights and income share agreements being listed on platforms like Balancer. They are fundamentally kicking out the middlemen that historically connected issuers to markets. Almost like how Wordpress made a publication as easy as a few clicks and took power away from newspapers. Will this be abused? Yes. People stand to lose money. However, as with most innovations that disrupt the middle-men, this may do more good than evil over time. I wait observing patiently for proof of the same.
Thank you very much for the information:
Joel John
Matteo Leibowitz
Daryl Lau
Kerman Kohli
Best regards EXCAVO
13 Recommendations for Traders1. You should not expect that the loss-making trades will ultimately lead to a reversal and profit. You should not build up a position on it, proving to yourself that you are right. The best solution would be to exit the position and accept your losses, as they are inevitable in stock trading.
2. Stop loss and take profit should be based on the market situation, not financial opportunities. If you need to set a stop longer than your deposit allows, the trade should be canceled.
3. Entry and exit points should be objectively justified.
4. Do not enter the market during the high volatility period - the pursuit of the large profits does not always end as a trader would like to.
5. Not all bear market strategies are bullish.
6. A canceled buy signal may be a sell signal as well as vice versa.
7. It is always easier to lose money than to make money on trading.
8. If the response to the news does not instantaneously appear on the market, perhaps it will follow in the future and will have more serious consequences.
9. To increase the likelihood of a successful trade, it is necessary to enter it with a little delay and exit it without waiting for the change in the profitable movement.
10. When a crowd enters into a trade it is time to exit.
11. If you have a feeling of anxiety you should close the trade and continue trading keeping a cool head.
12. Success is a prosperous series, not a single trade.
13. If the series of losing trades are going on, it is worth to take a break. This will allow you to gather your thoughts and, possibly, turn the tide.
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin $18,000/$24,000 or $28,000/$38,000. See the stats.Rule 1 = 3 green Mac's rising Rule 2 = Rule 1 trend broken (green vertical) Rule 3 = Rule 2 followed red Mac. Statistic since Jul 2015 every closing week break out from the high of Rule 2 resulted in a near 50% to 100% increase in price. Therefore, break out from $12,065 could hit $18,000 or $24,000. Then once weeks closing price price breaks $19,175 could hit $28,000 or $38,000. KEY (3 green MAC's = MACD source code HI, CL, LO) CAVEAT - very small sample size. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
DRAG CHART ABOVE TO THE RIGHT TO SEE CLOSE UP
The difference - Double Top & Head and ShouldersHello my friend | Welcome Back.
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What Is Double Top and Bottom?
Double top and bottom patterns are chart patterns that occur when the underlying investment moves in a similar pattern to the letter "W" (double bottom) or "M" (double top). Double top and bottom analysis is used in technical analysis to explain movements in a security or other investment, and can be used as part of a trading strategy to exploit recurring patterns.
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What Is a Head And Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
Risk management in trading €$¥Hello my friend | Welcome Back.
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What is market risk?
Market risk is the capacity for your trades to result in losses due to unfavourable price movements that affect the market as a whole. There are several factors that can cause market risk, but movement in any of the following can exert major pressure:
Stock prices
Interest rates
Foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices
What is liquidity risk?
Liquidity risk is the possibility that you may be forced to trade an asset at a worse price than you anticipated. For example, when trying to sell an illiquid stock you may struggle to find a buyer, meaning that you have to sell your stock for less than its current market value.
In some markets, liquidity risk can even mean that your trade negatively affects the price of the asset you are buying or selling. This is generally more of an issue in emerging or low-volume markets, where there may not be enough people in the market to trade with.
How to manage your risk
Risk management is the process of identifying, analysing and reducing risk in your trading decisions. Usually, it involves developing a trading plan that helps you decide what to trade, when to trade and where to place your stop losses. Here are three tips on how to manage risk:
1. Assess risk vs return
In general, trading strategies focus on weighing up a trade’s potential risk against its potential return. If a trade has greater risk, it should carry the chance of a greater return to make that risk worthwhile.
For example, government bonds are considered a safe, low-risk investment – but when compared to corporate bonds, they offer lower rates of return. This is because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, so to compensate for the added risk investors are offered a higher rate of return.
2. Understand each market’s risks
It’s important to ensure you understand the factors that influence different markets, so you can base your dealing strategies on relevant information. Improve your success rate by learning more about the markets you’re dealing on and exploring new strategies.
Our trading skills section is a great place to learn about all the markets we offer.
3. Keep learning
Learning to trade successfully while managing your risk is a continual process – and one of the best ways of ensuring that you are always improving is by starting a trading diary. By keeping track of which trades and strategies have worked in the past, you can build on your successes and learn from your failures.
Head and shoulders typesHello my friend | Welcome Back.
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The head and shoulders chart pattern is a popular and easy to spot pattern in technical analysis that shows a baseline with three peaks, the middle peak being the highest. The head and shoulders chart depicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal and signals that an upward trend is nearing its end.
The pattern appears on all time frames and can, therefore, be used by all types of traders and investors. Entry levels, stop levels and price targets make the formation easy to implement, as the chart pattern provides important and easy to see levels.
Ascending Channel & Descending ChannelHello my friend | Welcome Back.
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One of the best methods of technical analysis at the beginning is to know the direction where it is heading
Including the ascending channel and the descending channel pattern
When drawing an ascending or descending channel, the tops of the bottoms are greater than the peaks and bottoms behind them, and usually there are three peaks or troughs, and then the break comes after
To properly draw the pattern, link the tops and bottoms of each other so that the pattern is formed
This in a nutshell
Classic graphicsHello
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Classic technical analysis is one of the best analyzes for finding a buy or sell opportunity
So I drew some of the most common technical drawings used in the analysis.
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1 ) What Is a Head And Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
* A head and shoulders pattern is a technical indicator with a chart pattern described by three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest.
* A head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
* The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
2 ) What is Inverse Head And Shoulders?
An inverse head and shoulders, also called a "head and shoulders bottom", is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: the price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs.
3-4 ) What is a Sideways Trend?
A sideways trend is the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of supply and demand are nearly equal. This typically occurs during a period of consolidation before the price continues a prior trend or reverses into a new trend.
A sideways price trend is also commonly known as a "horizontal trend."
* A sideways trend is the horizontal price movement of a stock between resistance and support levels that occurs when the forces of supply and demand are balanced.
* Traders can profit from sideways trends in several ways, from looking for confirmations of a breakout or breakdown to using stock options to placing stop-loss orders when the price nears resistance levels.
4 ) What is a Descending Triangle?
A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern used in technical analysis that is created by drawing one trend line that connects a series of lower highs and a second horizontal trend line that connects a series of lows. Oftentimes, traders watch for a move below the lower support trend line because it suggests that the downward momentum is building and a breakdown is imminent. Once the breakdown occurs, traders enter into short positions and aggressively help push the price of the asset even lower.
4-5 ) What is an Ascending Triangle?
An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs, and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside. Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since the price will typically breakout in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming.
7 ) What is a Descending Channel?
A descending channel is drawn by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of a security's price with parallel trendlines to show a downward trend. Officially, the space between the trendlines is the descending channel, which falls under the broad category of trend channels.
8 ) What Is Rising (Or) Ascending Channel Chart Pattern?
As you can notice the rising channel pattern moves upwards, it is also called as Bullish Channel pattern. It comprises of two lines parallel to each other with points shaping higher highs and higher lows therefore consequential in bullish channel or upside channel. The price is limited between the two trend lines.
9 ) Support and resistance role reversal
A key concept of technical analysis is that when a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to reverse its role.
eLEARN ON 4 TYPES OF INDICATORSI was supposed to give some few tips on how to check some market movements through some of indicators which I Also use.
Bullish or Bearish indicators are classified depending on what they indicate; They either indicate;Volatility , Momentum, Volume and Trend.
I will give an example on each type.
Volatility Indictors show price action change in a given time,Tells nothing about direction but how the fast the price will change for you to make profit. Example is Bollinger bands.
Momentum indicators show how strong the trend is, with them you can detect when a pullback is going to occur or a reversal. Example is RSI indicator.
Volume indicators show how volume is changing with time like the OBV.
Trend indicators tell you which direction the market will be moving to like MACD. Mostly are oscillators.
I will cover an example on each in 4 episodes.
In Trading all indicators have their limitations and one can not depend only on 1 indicator , I will also show you on you can use several indicators combined.
EPISODE 1
Bollinger bands - Volatility Indicator.
They consist of a simple moving average, and 2 lines plotted at 2 standard deviations on either side of the central moving average line. The outer lines make up the band.
Simply, when the band is narrow the market is quiet. When the band is wide the market is loud.
Trading when market is trending, Bands try to squeeze to each other and that indicates that Breakout is about to happen either and Uptrend or down trend.
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend.
An example of Bollinger indicating a breakout.
Point to NOte:
If the candles breakout above the top band, the move will generally continue in an uptrend
If the candles breakout below the bottom band, the move will generally continue in a downtrend.
Bullish
Bearish
When Trading in a ranges when coin is maybe accumulating or distributing, Bollinger bands act as Resistance and support at that particular time. When you want to enter the market, You can always enter at the bottom of the lower band and sell at the top band to avoid a breakout which may happen which could be a down move or uptrend. If you enter for a long at the bottom of the range or short at the top of the range, The price naturally returns to the average as time passes.
That’s what Bollinger bands are all about; keep following, next episode is well lined up.
Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to......Astronomical returns possible: Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to "Big Oil" signal after SPX setting ATH's >> WK 16 DEC 19 63% 8 WKS >> WK 25 SEPT 18 437% 11 WKS >> WK 28 JAN 13 1383% 10 WKS. The only time signal did not work was when bitcoin MACD histogram was in red. CAVEAT: WTI Crude Oil Weekly MACD line (source HIGH) has not yet closed >0. Big Oil signal still needs to confirm. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Incredibly accurate bitcoin signal so far - see static chartTrading View technical problems publishing. Was not going to let that hold up my publishing schedule. Just like the best trades trading legends write about in books. How long does it have left to run? 3 easy steps. Last signal +30% Details on chart NOT ADVICE DYOR
Here are ones I did earlier