Harmonic Patterns
Micron Technology - Starting the next +80% move!Micron Technology - NASDAQ:MU - perfectly respects structure:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Starting back in mid 2024, Micron Technology created the expected long term top formation. We witnessed a correction of about -60%, which ultimately resulted in a retest of a confluence of support. So far, Micron Technology rallied about +60%, with another +80% to follow soon.
Levels to watch: $150, $180
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Can we look for longs in XAUUSD? Here's a multi-timeframe POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Review and plan for 19th June 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
Dogecoin - Don't forget the dog now!Dogecoin - CRYPTO:DOGEUSD - still remains quite bullish:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Basically during every major bullrun on Dogecoin, we always saw a correction of at least -60%. Therefore the recent drop of -70% was not a surprise at all but rather a natural all time high rejection. If Dogecoin manages to now create bullish confirmation, the bullrun will continue.
Levels to watch: $0.2. $0.5
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
AUDJPYAUDJPY: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, Bank Lending Rates, and Carry Trade Advantage (June 2025)
1. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
Australia (AUD):
The 10-year Australian government bond yield is currently around 4.48%–4.53%.
Japan (JPY):
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is about 1.48% as of June 16, 2025.
2. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):
The RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May 2025, citing progress in reducing inflation and global uncertainties.
Bank of Japan (BOJ):
The BOJ held its key short-term policy interest rate steady at 0.5% at its June 2025 meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008.
3. Bank Lending Rates
Australia:
The average overdraft bank lending rate is 10.51% as of April 2025.
Japan:
The long-term prime bank lending rate is 2.05% (April 2025), while the average commercial bank lending rate is reported at 1.625% as of February 2025.
4. Interest Rate Differential
Policy Rate Differential:3.85%3.85% (RBA) − 0.5%0.5% (BOJ) = 3.35%.
10-Year Bond Yield Differential:4.48%4.48% (Australia) − 1.48%1.48% (Japan) = 3.00%.
5. Carry Trade Advantage
Mechanism:
Investors borrow in the low-yielding Japanese yen (JPY) and invest in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the interest rate differential.
Current Advantage:
The wide gap in both policy rates and bond yields makes AUDJPY one of the most attractive carry trade pairs in 2025. The 3.35%–3.00% differential offers steady potential returns, especially in a stable or risk-on market environment.
Risks:
If global risk sentiment deteriorates, the yen can strengthen rapidly as a safe haven, unwinding carry trades.
Sudden shifts in RBA or BOJ policy could narrow the differential and reduce the carry trade's appeal.
6. Summary Table
Factor Australia (AUD) Japan (JPY) Differential / Impact
10Y Bond Yield 4.48–4.53% 1.48% 3.00% (AUD advantage)
Policy Rate 3.85% 0.5% 3.35% (AUD advantage)
Bank Lending Rate 10.51% 1.625–2.05% AUD much higher
Carry Trade Outlook High yield, attractive Low yield, funding Strong incentive for AUDJPY long
Conclusion
The AUDJPY pair is strongly supported by a wide interest rate and bond yield differential, making it a favored target for carry trade strategies in 2025. The RBA’s relatively high rates and the BOJ’s ultra-low rates, combined with stable economic conditions, provide a consistent yield advantage for investors holding long AUDJPY positions. However, traders should monitor global risk sentiment and central bank policy shifts, as these can quickly change the carry trade landscape
GOLD GOLD brokers have different intraday candle closes which will affect your buy sell decision since we analysis chart based on structure ,multiple brokers charting is key to winning in the market and keep in mind that the 10 year bond yield chart and dxy should be in the picture too..
,the price action on 3hr shows that GOLD trading between demand and supply trendline line ,we have taken advantage of retest at 3373-3375 broken descending trendline and on the retest 3373-3375 activated . but 3403-3398 remains higher intraday day 3hr timeframe supply zone coming as a black ascending trendline. If buyers wont break it, they will continue to sell from that level ,if they start selling and break the current ascending trendline ,i will be waiting at the next demand floor 3342-3347floor and the next floor will be to retest the descending trendline breakout connecting 3500-3438-3365 breakout and that will be 3261-3265 demand floor .
goodluck
Meta Platforms - The rally is clearly not over!Meta Platforms - NASDAQ:META - can rally another +30%:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Some people might say that it seem counterintuitive to predict another +30% rally on Meta Platforms while the stock has been rallying already about +750% over the past couple of months. But price action and market structure both tell us, that this will soon turn into reality.
Levels to watch: $850
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
NAS100 live trade execution 10k profit and breakdown Seven fundamentals for the week: Iran-Israel war, Fed to fire up tariff-troubled markets
Premium
When will the Fed cut interest rates? That question competes with the Israel-Iran war and the fate of the tariffs America slaps on its peers. US retail sales and interest rate decisions in Japan and the UK keep things lively as well.
BTC BITCOIN ,we are watching every step and price action,the next clear directional bias on long will be on the break and close of daily supply roof at 111k, while the sell confirmation will be on the break and possible retest of the daily ascending trending line holding buyers for today 16th.
Israel and Iran war could be seeing liquidity into crypto especially bitcoin
GOLD GOLD 3416 is giving us a strong draw down and we need to get ride of that structure to challenge 3428.be watchful of that zone 3428 for potential drop in price .break and clos ewe go long to challenge 3476. another critical demand will be 3392-3400 level to watch.
while from the down side 3375-3370-3365 is in my watch list.