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Harmonic Patterns

USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024. The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook. The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves. The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025. Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals. Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information. Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends. The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties. JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate 1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation Strong Negative Correlation: USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa. Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD. Recent Trends: Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength. 2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields Interest Rate Differentials Influence: The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements: Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD. Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise. 3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Monetary Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD. Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Carry Trade Basics: Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential. USD/CAD Context: If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD. Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite. Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves. 5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries. Key Points of UIP: Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate. Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation. Example: Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain. Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates. Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates. CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk. Formula: The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries. USD/CAD Implication: Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair. Summary Table Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD 10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect Conclusion The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence. Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows. While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment. #USDCAD
by Shavyfxhub
BITCOINThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #bitcoin #dollar
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #GOLD #DOLLAR
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
live trade and break down 5k profits, 3500 targetGold price sticks to positive bias as sustained safe-haven buying offsets modest USD strength Gold price sticks to its bullish tone for the third consecutive day on Friday and trades close to its highest level since April 22 through the first half of the European session. Against the backdrop of trade-related uncertainties, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by afri-tradesource
GOLD GOLD ,the sudden rise in price from Asian session is driven by central bank purchase ,gold is heading to 3600 if 3400-3397 retest is successful . the high of today 3444 on supply roof structure from the 3500 all time high, will need correction into demand floor where we look to unlock next wave of buy at 3400-3397 with the hope that 3500 is retested. the dollar index 97.620 demand floor on retest bought and moved in the same direction with Gold by ignoring inverse correlation ,this price movement is reflecting fear, geopolitical tension ,economic instability and inflation concern in the global market. the yesterday economic data print will be watched by feds PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. The Fed will use the datas as reinforcing evidence for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. #gold
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
USDJPY Over the past year, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar. Interest Rate Decisions Federal Reserve (Fed): The Fed’s policy rate remains at 4.25–4.50%, with markets increasingly expecting a rate cut as US inflation data cools and labor market data softens. Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ’s short-term policy rate is set at 0.5% (unchanged since March 2025), and the central bank continues a cautious approach, with no recent hikes or major policy shifts. 10-Year Government Bond Yields US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Recently declined to around 4.348% after softer US inflation data, reflecting expectations of Fed easing. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield: Stands at approximately 1.45%, having edged lower amid strong demand at recent bond auctions and the BoJ’s continued yield curve control. Implications for USDJPY The narrowing yield differential between US and Japanese 10-year bonds (now roughly 2.93%) is a key driver of the yen’s recent strength against the dollar. As US yields fall on expectations of Fed rate cuts, the appeal of the dollar over the yen diminishes, supporting further yen appreciation. The BoJ remains cautious, but with inflation in Japan still below target and growth subdued, there is little pressure for rate hikes, keeping the policy gap wide but shrinking as the Fed pivots dovish. Conclusion The USDJPY has weakened as US yields fall and the Fed signals a dovish tilt, while the BoJ holds steady. The pair is likely to remain under pressure if US yields continue to decline and the Fed moves closer to rate cuts, narrowing the US-Japan yield gap further. #USDJPY
Short
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data Key CPI Figures (May 2025) Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast). Fed’s Likely Interpretation Cooling Inflation Momentum: The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed. Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks. Tariff Impact Delayed: The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory. Labor Market Resilience: Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts. Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks. Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears. What’s Next? June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening. Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data Key Data Points PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Subdued Producer Inflation Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains. Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025. 2. Labor Market Softening Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023. Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP). 3. Policy Outlook September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens. Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given: Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets. DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Conclusion The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts. Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent. Summary The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. #gold
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
by okako_trading
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data Key CPI Figures (May 2025) Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast). Fed’s Likely Interpretation Cooling Inflation Momentum: The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed. Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks. Tariff Impact Delayed: The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory. Labor Market Resilience: Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts. Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks. Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears. What’s Next? June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening. Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data Key Data Points PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Subdued Producer Inflation Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains. Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025. 2. Labor Market Softening Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023. Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP). 3. Policy Outlook September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens. Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given: Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets. DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Conclusion The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts. Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent. Summary The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. #gold
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD GOLD .the current london time of gold trading session is locked at 3376-3374.we hope they unlock the price at 3350-3355 to enable 3427-3430 and higher lock zone another unlock key at 3367 will be watched if it has the potential for upswing and unlock,otherwise it gets locked into 3350-3355 unlock zone . from technical perspective unlock of 3323 yesterday will need a cool off at 3350-3355 to unlock another long position. the dollar index got unlock key at 98.263 descending trendline upholding long position. the 2hr and 1hr aligns with the structure.(lock /unlock) lets watch and see what she does. stay cautious
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Microsoft - This might be the ultimate breakout!Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT - will break the all time high: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) If you wonder why Microsoft has been rallying +15% this month, market structure will give you an answer. In fact, the recent bullish break and retest was totally expected, and if we take into account the recent quite strong bullish behaviour, an all time high breakout will follow soon. Levels to watch: $450 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
4
The altcoin cycle is loading… don’t get caught chasing!Why It Might Be a Good Time to Start Building Your Nest Now 🥚🐣💸 If history’s taught us anything, it’s this: the best opportunities usually show up before everyone’s talking about them. 📈 Every cycle, whether it’s stocks, crypto, or real estate, rewards the people who start stacking early, not the ones waiting for a perfect moment (spoiler: it rarely comes). A lot of people sit on the sidelines thinking they’ll “jump in later” … but by the time it feels safe, the big moves have usually already happened. 👀💨 Of course, this isn’t financial advice, just something to think about. 🤝 The ones who build their nest patiently, stay consistent, and prepare ahead of time tend to be the ones who win when the cycle really kicks off. 🛠️ Moral of the story: Start now, stay ready. Your future self will thank you. 🚀🫡
Long
by Trade-Journal