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Harmonic Patterns

S&P500 - The bottom we have been waiting for!The S&P500 - TVC:SPX - officially created the bottom: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) This month we officially saw one of the craziest stock market fakeouts of the past decade. With a drop and reversal rally of about +15%, the S&P500 is about to even close with a green monthly candle, which then indicates that the stock market bottom was created. Levels to watch: $120, $250 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
22
Bitcoin - The Bottom Is In!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is reversing right now: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 It was really just a matter of time until Bitcoin actually manages to create a potential short term and longer term bottom. With this monthly candle, bulls are taking over again and starting to buy cryptos quite heavily. The chart just tells us that this is not the end, but rather the continuation. Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
11
Solana - This just faked out literally everybody!Solana - CRYPTO:SOLUSD - just faked out literally everybody: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Over the course of the past 25 days, Solana dropped a significant -30% and wiped out a ton of bulls before creating a complete reversal. Especially with the current horizontal support level, bulls are taking over again, offering us another major crypto trading opportunity. Levels to watch: $120, $250 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
15
Tesla - The Next 7 Days Decide Everything!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is sitting at a crucial structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Despite the -60% correction which we have been seeing over the past couple of months, Tesla still continuously validates its overall uptrend. That's exactly the reason for my strong bullish thesis and the assumption, that after we see bullish confirmation, Tesla will reject the current support area. Levels to watch: $250, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
7
USOILCurrent USOIL Price Drop (May 2025) WTI crude oil (USOIL) has declined sharply in early May 2025, Key drivers include: OPEC+ Surprise Supply Increase: OPEC+ announced plans to raise output in June, reversing earlier production cuts and flooding the market with additional barrels. Tariff-Driven Demand Fears: U.S.-China trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs threaten global economic growth, reducing oil demand forecasts. Dollar Strength: The U.S. dollar (DXY) has rebounded due to delayed Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, pressuring dollar-denominated oil prices. EIA/Goldman Sachs Forecasts: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Goldman Sachs revised 2025–2026 oil price forecasts downward, citing oversupply risks and weaker demand. Shifting Dollar-Oil Correlation Historically, oil and the dollar were inversely correlated (strong dollar = lower oil prices). However, this relationship is weakening due to: U.S. as a Net Oil Exporter: The U.S. is now the world’s largest crude producer. Higher oil prices improve the U.S. trade balance (vs. worsening it when the U.S. was a net importer). Petrodollar Dynamics: As the U.S. exports more oil, revenue from oil sales strengthens the dollar, creating a positive correlation in certain scenarios. Geopolitical and Policy Shocks: Tariffs, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed policy now dominate price action, overshadowing traditional correlations. Future Directional Bias Bearish Factors OPEC+ Supply Surge: Increased production (post-June 2025) could push prices toward $50–$55/barrel (Goldman Sachs base case). Recession Risks: Weak demand from China/Europe and U.S. tariff impacts may trigger a global slowdown, further depressing oil prices. Dollar Strength: Fed rate cuts delayed until July 2025 or later could sustain dollar strength, capping oil’s upside. Bullish Catalysts Supply Disruptions: Escalating Middle East tensions or OPEC+ policy reversals could tighten supply. Weaker Dollar: If the Fed signals rate cuts or tariffs ease, dollar weakness could lift oil prices. Outlook: USOIL faces downside risks in the near term due to oversupply and demand concern Exogenous Shocks: Exogenous shocks to the U.S. real interest rate can cause a modest and short-lived decline in the real price of oil. Although there is a higher opportunity cost of holding inventories, oil inventories may increase, reflecting the decline in global real activity associated with higher U.S. real interest rate
TVC:USOILShort
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has resumed buying and strengthened recently due to several key factors: Widening Interest Rate Differential and Economic Outperformance The U.S. economy is growing faster than many other major economies, projected at around 2.7% in 2025, while Europe and Japan face weaker growth and deeper rate cuts by their central banks. This growth divergence has widened the gap between U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and those of key trading partners to the highest level since 1994, making the dollar more attractive to investors seeking yield. Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Due to Tariff-Driven Inflation U.S. tariffs, especially on Chinese goods, are expected to keep inflation elevated, delaying the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. Higher U.S. interest rates relative to other countries support dollar strength. The Fed’s cautious stance after the May 7 meeting, holding rates steady and signaling a wait-and-see approach, reinforces the dollar’s yield advantage. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and tariff uncertainties drive investors toward the dollar as a safe haven during periods of global uncertainty. Positive Carry Trades and Positioning The dollar benefits from carry trades where investors borrow in lower-yielding currencies (yen, euro) to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. Long-dollar positioning is not yet saturated, leaving room for further gains. Technical Support and Market Sentiment The DXY has found strong technical support near key levels with bullish price action and momentum building, suggesting continued upside potential in the near term. Summary Table Widened interest rate differential Higher U.S. yields draw investors Tariff-driven inflation delays Fed cuts Sustains dollar yield advantage Safe-haven demand amid uncertainty Boosts dollar as global risk-off asset Positive carry trades Encourages long-dollar positioning Technical support near key levels Reinforces bullish momentum In essence: The DXY’s resumed buying reflects a combination of strong U.S. economic fundamentals, delayed Fed easing due to tariff inflation, safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks, and technical factors supporting the dollar’s near-term rally. This momentum is expected to continue into mid-2025 unless global growth stabilizes or the Fed signals more aggressive easing.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD FOMC Interest Rate Decision (May 7, 2025) The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining its stance since December 2024. The decision reflects heightened uncertainty from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals, including stagflation risks (rising unemployment and inflation). Chair Jerome Powell emphasized vigilance toward trade policy impacts but avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, despite market expectations for easing later in 2025. Geopolitical Conflicts Affecting Gold Prices U.S.-China Trade War Escalation New tariffs and retaliatory measures have intensified safe-haven demand for gold. Prices hit record highs in April 2025 (NT$3,518/gram in Taiwan) as investors sought protection from market volatility. Renewed trade talks (e.g., U.S.-China meetings in Switzerland) caused a brief 1.3% gold price dip on optimism, but analysts project prices to rebound to $3,500–$4,000/oz by late 2025 amid unresolved tensions. Central Bank Gold Accumulation Central banks, led by China and Russia, are aggressively stockpiling gold to diversify from USD assets and hedge against sanctions. Prolonged military tensions continue to drive gold’s role as a crisis hedge. Escalation could push prices higher, while de-escalation might temporarily reduce demand. Middle East Instability Conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia disrupt global supply chains and energy markets, amplifying gold’s appeal as a safe haven during periods of heightened risk. Dollar Weakness and Inflation Risks A declining U.S. Dollar Index (-0.3% on May 7) and tariff-driven inflation fears have bolstered gold’s attractiveness. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts reinforces gold’s appeal in a negative real yield environment. Gold Price Outlook Short-term: Prices may face volatility from trade talk progress or Fed policy shifts but remain supported by geopolitical risks and central bank buying. Long-term: Analysts (e.g., UBS, Bank of America) forecast gold reaching $3,500–$4,000/oz in 2025 due to structural demand, tariff impacts, and unresolved global conflicts. In summary, gold’s trajectory hinges on geopolitical stability, central bank actions, and Fed policy, with bullish momentum likely to persist amid fragmented global trade and economic uncertainty.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Alibaba - This Chart Speaks In Money!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) prepares for a significant pump: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Basically since Alibaba was listed on the NYSE, it always perfectly respected market structure. With the recent rejection away from the key neckline, Alibaba is now creating a bullish break and retest. After bullish confirmation, this forms a bottom and we might see new all time highs. Levels to watch: $110, $140 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NYSE:BABALong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
22
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential, Upcoming Economic Data, and Directional Bias (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Overview Eurozone (ECB): The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with inflation forecasts lowered (e.g., core CPI forecast for 2026 revised down to 1.7%). This signals a dovish bias and easing monetary policy ahead. Japan (BoJ): The Bank of Japan maintains a very low policy rate at 0.5%, with cautious communication about gradual rate hikes. The 10-year JGB yield recently declined to 1.32%, reflecting market skepticism about sustained tightening amid global uncertainties. The BoJ plans up to two more hikes by Q1 2026 but remains sensitive to financial market volatility and yen strength. Resulting Differential: The Eurozone currently offers a higher interest rate environment than Japan, but with expected ECB cuts and cautious BoJ tightening, the differential remains wide but may narrow over time. This wide differential has historically supported EUR/JPY strength. Upcoming Key Economic Data and Events Date Event Potential Impact on EUR/JPY May 7, 2025 ECB Meeting (no rate change expected) Market eyes June cut; dovish tone could weaken EUR temporarily. May 7, 2025 BoJ Policy Statement & Press Conference Watch for guidance on future hikes; dovish signals could weaken JPY further. May 15, 2025 Eurozone CPI Data (April) Soft inflation supports ECB easing, bearish EUR bias. May 15, 2025 Japan CPI Data (April) Inflation trends influence BoJ tightening path; lower inflation weakens JPY. May 30, 2025 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Weak sentiment may pressure EUR. June 6, 2025 ECB Rate Decision Expected 25bps cut could weaken EUR and EUR/JPY. Directional Bias and Price Outlook Current Price: Around ¥162.5 (early May 2025). Short to Medium Term: EUR/JPY is trending higher due to the wide interest rate differential favoring the euro and ongoing BoJ caution. Market expects ECB easing and BoJ gradual tightening, which may keep EUR/JPY supported but with volatility around ECB meetings and inflation prints. Lack of recent Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen has allowed EUR/JPY to drift higher. Summary Table Factor Impact on EUR/JPY Wide Eurozone-Japan rate differential Supports EUR/JPY upside ECB easing expectations Could pressure EUR short term BoJ cautious tightening Weakens JPY, supports EUR/JPY Soft Eurozone inflation data Bearish for EUR, limits gains Lack of JPY intervention Allows EUR/JPY to trend higher US-China trade tensions easing Risk-on sentiment supports EUR Conclusion EUR/JPY’s near-term strength is primarily driven by a wide interest rate differential favoring the euro, combined with a cautious Bank of Japan and expectations of ECB rate cuts. Upcoming inflation data and central bank meetings are key catalysts that could cause volatility. Traders should watch ECB June decisions and BoJ communications closely, as these will influence the pace of monetary policy divergence and EUR/JPY direction.
Long
by Shavyfxhub