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Harmonic Patterns

GOLD Gold, 10-Year Bond Yield, DXY, and Interest Rate Differential 1.Gold is trading around $3,310 after dipping into 3307 per ounce on NFP data report as of close of friday market in june 2025. The price remains elevated compared to historical levels, supported by inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and strong central bank demand. 2. Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.5%, recently rising amid inflation worries and fiscal uncertainties.the boost from NFP took 10 year yield from 4.3% to 4.58% close of Friday . Gold has an inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, generally pressuring gold prices lower. However, if inflation expectations remain elevated, gold can still hold value as an inflation hedge despite rising nominal yields. 3. Relationship with DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold and the DXY share a strong negative correlation because gold is priced in USD. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and pushing prices down. Recent dollar strength on demand floor has weighed on gold, but persistent inflation, geopolitical tension ,political instability and safe-haven demand have limited gold’s downside. 4. Interest Rate Differential Impact The interest rate differential between the US and other major economies affects capital flows and currency valuations, indirectly influencing gold. Higher US rates relative to other countries tend to strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold. Conversely, narrowing differentials or expectations of Fed rate cuts can weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Gold prices remain in a higher trading range ($3,000–$3,500) supported by inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. Near-term pressure may come from rising bond yields and a strong dollar. Critical looks on over bought market would need a correction to set up a new buy rally. The upcoming U.S. inflation data release on June 11, 2025 and Fed policy signals will be crucial in determining gold’s direction. Core CPI m/m forecast: 0.3% (previous 0.2%) CPI m/m forecast: 0.2% (previous 0.2%) CPI y/y forecast: 2.5% (previous 2.3%) How the Federal Reserve is likely to react if actual figures exceed forecasts: (1)Monetary Policy Stance The Fed’s May 2025 minutes emphasize a data-dependent approach, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% while carefully assessing incoming data and risks to inflation and employment. If inflation prints come in higher than expected, especially core CPI and y/y CPI, it would signal persistent inflation pressures, potentially delaying or reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. (2)Possible Fed Response The Fed may adopt a more cautious or hawkish tone in its June 17–18 meeting, signaling readiness to keep rates elevated longer or even consider further tightening if inflation remains sticky. Policymakers could emphasize the need for “greater confidence” that inflation is on a sustainable downward path before easing monetary policy. Market expectations for rate cuts later in 2025 could be pushed back or diminished, supporting higher bond yields and a stronger dollar. (3)Market Implications A stronger-than-forecast CPI print would likely boost the US dollar (DXY) as markets price in a prolonged high-rate environment. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year yield, may rise reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed easing. Conversely, gold and other inflation-sensitive assets may face selling pressure due to higher real yields and dollar strength. Conclusion Gold’s price dynamics in June 2025 are shaped by a tug-of-war between rising US 10 year Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, which weigh on gold, and inflation concerns plus safe-haven demand, which support it. The interest rate differential reinforces dollar strength, typically bearish for gold, but ongoing macro uncertainties keep gold elevated as a strategic asset and store of value. #gold #dollar
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GBPUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Long
by okako_trading
XAUUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by okako_trading
Why You Should Avoid Safe-Haven Shorts Next WeekTraders, don’t walk into next week blind. The U.S. and China are set to hold official trade talks in London on June 9, and the market is already shifting in anticipation. This video breaks down exactly how the process works — from Trump’s surprise phone call, to tariff de-escalation, to what happens when global tensions ease. If you're planning to short USD/JPY, USD/CHF, or any safe-haven pairs next week, you need to watch this first. Because a positive trade outcome = risk-on sentiment, and that means JPY and CHF will likely weaken fast. I explain: Why optimism crushes safe-haven setups What smart money is watching How to align your trades with the macro narrative And how not to get trapped like most retail traders will 📉 This is how real traders position ahead of a global sentiment shift. Drop a comment if you’re preparing the same way, and follow for more macro-driven trade insights.
by Calugareanu_Alexandru
GBPJPY1. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield As of early June 2025, the Japan 10-year government bond yield is approximately 1.50% to 1.52%. The yield rose by about 18 basis points in May 2025, closing near 1.50%, influenced by global yield increases, Moody’s US credit downgrade, and reduced BoJ purchases of super-long bonds. The Bank of Japan maintains a very accommodative monetary policy with a policy rate around 0.50%, and the yield curve control program continues to cap longer-term yields, though with some recent volatility. The Bank of England’s policy rate is higher than Japan’s, around 4.5% to 5.0%, consistent with the higher gilt yields. 2. Interest Rate Differential Using approximate yields: UK 10-year gilt yield: ~3.75% (midpoint estimate) Japan 10-year JGB yield: ~1.50% The 10-year bond yield differential (UK minus Japan) is roughly: 3.75%−1.50%=2.25% This positive differential indicates UK bonds offer significantly higher yields than Japanese bonds, reflecting the divergent monetary policies and economic conditions. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) Japan (JPY) Differential (GBP - JPY) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~3.5% - 4.0% ~1.50% ~2.25% Policy Interest Rate ~4.5% - 5.0% ~0.50% ~4.0% Implications for GBP/JPY The higher UK bond yields relative to Japan suggest a carry advantage for GBP over JPY, encouraging investors to hold GBP assets funded by low-yielding JPY. According to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), this yield gap implies the GBP should depreciate against JPY by about 2.25% annually to offset the higher returns, but in practice, GBP/JPY movements also depend on risk sentiment, growth outlook, and central bank policies. The yen’s safe-haven status and BoJ’s yield curve control can dampen yield-driven moves, while the UK’s inflation and policy tightening support higher yields and GBP strength #gbpjpy
Long
by Shavyfxhub
USOILThe correlation between USOIL (WTI crude oil prices) and DXY (US Dollar Index) has historically been inverse, but structural shifts in global energy markets and economic dynamics are altering this relationship. Oil is globally traded in USD. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand and lowering oil prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper, boosting demand and prices. Trade Balance Impact: Historically, the U.S. was a net oil importer. Rising oil prices worsened its trade deficit, weakening the dollar. This reinforced the inverse correlation. Recent Structural Shifts U.S. as a Net Oil Exporter: Since becoming the world’s largest crude oil producer (surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia), higher oil prices now improve the U.S. trade balance by boosting export revenue. This has weakened the traditional inverse relationship Geopolitical risks: Oil supply fears and safe-haven dollar demand can push both higher. Federal Reserve Policy: Hawkish monetary policies that strengthen the dollar can suppress oil prices, but if paired with strong U.S. growth (supporting oil demand), the correlation may turn neutral or positive. Positive correlations may persist during risk-off events or U.S.-centric demand surges. Inverse correlations likely resurface if global growth slows or the Fed pivots dovish. The U.S. dollar may increasingly behave like a "petrocurrency," strengthening with oil prices as exports grow. #usoil
FX:USOIL
by Shavyfxhub
3
AUDCHFThe AUD/CHF pair is currently showing bearish tendencies despite Australia having higher interest rates than Switzerland due to several key factors beyond just the nominal interest rate differential: 1. Monetary Policy Outlook and Rate Expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently cut rates with expectations of further cuts, signaling a dovish stance going forward. This diminishes the appeal of the AUD despite its current higher rates. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has a very low policy rate (~0.25%) but is expected to keep rates on hold, providing stability to the CHF. The market perceives the SNB’s policy as more stable relative to the RBA’s easing path, which weighs on AUD/CHF. 2. Economic Fundamentals and Growth Prospects Australia’s economy is facing headwinds such as slower GDP growth, weaker commodity demand, and cautious consumer sentiment, which dampens AUD strength. Switzerland benefits from its safe-haven status and stable economic conditions, which attract investors during global uncertainty, supporting CHF demand. 3. Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows The Swiss Franc is traditionally a safe-haven currency. In times of global risk aversion or geopolitical uncertainty, investors flock to CHF, pushing AUD/CHF lower even if Australia offers higher yields. Current market sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish on AUD/CHF, with technical indicators showing limited momentum and a potential for bearish pressure. 4. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors Technical analysis shows AUD/CHF trading in a narrow range with weak trend strength, limited volatility, and resistance near supplyroof . The RSI and MACD indicators suggest indecision but slight bearish momentum. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting clearer economic data or policy signals before committing to AUD longs against CHF. Summary Table Factor Impact on AUD/CHF Explanation RBA Rate Cuts & Dovish Outlook Bearish Expected further easing reduces AUD appeal SNB Stable Policy Bullish for CHF Stability supports CHF demand Economic Growth Weak for AUD Slower growth weighs on AUD Safe-Haven Demand Supports CHF CHF strengthens in risk-off environments Technical Indicators Neutral to Slightly Bearish Limited momentum, resistance near supplyroof 1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Approximately 4.34% to 4.53% as of early June 2025, with recent fluctuations around 4.3%–4.5% due to RBA rate cuts and global bond market moves. Switzerland 10-Year Bond Yield: Swiss 10-year government bond yields have been historically low or negative due to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) ultra-low or negative policy rates and safe-haven status. As of mid-2025, Swiss 10-year yields are near 0.5% or lower, often negative or close to zero given Switzerland’s monetary policy stance and low inflation environment (typical recent range: -0.3% to +0.5%, though exact current data not in search results but known from market context). 2. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential (AUD – CHF) is roughly: 4.4%−0.5%≈+3.9% This means Australian 10-year bonds offer a yield premium of nearly 4 percentage points over Swiss 10-year bonds. 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP states that the expected change in the exchange rate equals the interest rate differential:3.9%i AUD −i CHF ≈3.9%. Implication: The AUD should theoretically depreciate by about 3.9% annually against the CHF to offset the higher yield investors earn from holding AUD bonds. This means investors expect the AUD/CHF exchange rate to adjust so that the higher Australian yields do not translate into arbitrage profits without currency risk. However, in practice, deviations from UIP occur due to risk premiums, capital controls, and market sentiment. 4. Carry Trade Advantage The large positive yield differential makes the AUD attractive for carry trades against the CHF. Investors borrow in low-yielding CHF (funding currency) and invest in higher-yielding AUD assets to earn the interest rate spread. Carry trade benefits: Potentially higher returns from the interest rate spread (~3.9%) AUD tends to be a commodity-linked currency with higher volatility and risk premium, which can amplify gains in risk-on environments. Risks: Currency risk if AUD depreciates sharply against CHF Global risk-off events can trigger unwind of carry trades, causing AUD weakness Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) Switzerland (CHF) Differential (AUD - CHF) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~4.34% - 4.53% ~0.5% or lower +3.9% Policy Rate 3.85% (RBA) ~0% or negative (SNB) ~3.85% UIP Expected AUD Depreciation — — ~3.9% per annum Carry Trade Advantage High yield, attractive Low yield, funding currency Significant carry trade incentive The substantial yield advantage of Australian 10-year bonds over Swiss 10-year bonds (~3.9%) creates a strong carry trade incentive to buy AUD and fund in CHF. According to uncovered interest rate parity, this yield gap should be offset by an expected depreciation of the AUD versus CHF. However, in practice, carry trades persist due to risk appetite and market dynamics, making AUD/CHF sensitive to global risk sentiment and monetary policy shifts. Conclusion Despite Australia’s higher nominal interest rates, the bearish AUD/CHF trend is driven by the RBA’s dovish outlook, weaker Australian economic fundamentals, and the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven status. These factors outweigh the interest rate differential advantage, leading to AUD underperformance versus CHF in the current environment #AUDCHF
by Shavyfxhub
AUDNZDCurrent 10-Year Bond Yields (June 1–10, 2025) Australia: The 10-year government bond yield rose to approximately 4.34% on June 6, 2025, after a slight increase from earlier levels around 4.53% in late May 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently cut the cash rate to 3.85%, contributing to some volatility in yields. New Zealand: The 10-year government bond yield was about 4.64% on June 6, 2025, slightly up from around 4.59% at the end of May 2025. New Zealand’s official cash rate stands at 3.50% as of April 2025. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential between New Zealand and Australia is roughly: 4.64%−4.34%=0.30% This means New Zealand’s 10-year bonds yield about 30 basis points more than Australia’s. The policy interest rate differential is about: 3.50%(NZ)−3.85%(AU)=−0.35%, indicating Australia’s cash rate is currently higher by 35 basis points. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Implications UIP theory states that the expected change in the exchange rate between two currencies equals the interest rate differential between their countries E =iNZ−iAUE =i NZ−i AU Using the policy rate differential (-0.35%), UIP would imply the NZD should depreciate against the AUD by about 0.35% over the relevant horizon. Using the 10-year bond yield differential (+0.30%), UIP would imply the NZD should appreciate against the AUD by about 0.30%. The conflicting signals reflect that short-term rates favor AUD while long-term yields slightly favor NZD. In practice, exchange rates are influenced by risk premiums, growth expectations, and monetary policy outlooks beyond pure UIP. Key Upcoming June 2025 Economic Data (Australia and New Zealand) Australia: Inflation rate update (next CPI release) Employment and unemployment data for May 2025 Retail sales and business confidence reports RBA’s monetary policy statement and any forward guidance on rates New Zealand: Inflation expectations and Q2 CPI data Unemployment rate and labor market reports Trade balance and manufacturing PMI RBNZ commentary on interest rates and inflation outlook These economic releases will be critical for shaping market expectations on future interest rates and yield curves, thereby impacting the AUD/NZD exchange rate. Summary Metric Australia New Zealand Differential (NZ - AU) 10-Year Bond Yield ~4.34% (June 6, 2025) ~4.64% (June 6, 2025) +0.30% Policy Interest Rate 3.85% (May 2025) 3.50% (April 2025) -0.35% UIP Expected Exchange Rate — — Mixed signals (±0.3%) Key June Data Inflation, employment, RBA policy Inflation, labor market, RBNZ guidance The slightly higher long-term yields in New Zealand versus higher short-term rates in Australia create nuanced dynamics for AUD/NZD parity. The final exchange rate direction will depend on upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications in June 2025. In conclusion, while New Zealand’s slightly higher 10-year bond yields create a positive interest rate differential over Australia, the strong economic ties and global influences mean that Australian bond yield changes materially affect New Zealand yields. This dynamic plays a significant role in shaping the AUD/NZD exchange rate through interest rate parity and market expectations #AUDNZD #FOREX
by Shavyfxhub
USD/CHF – BULLISH Plan for Next WeekThe battlefield is set. The market has spoken — now it’s our turn to act. This is my two-scenario strategy for USD/CHF going into next week, built around institutional behavior, liquidity grabs, and market structure. 📍 Zone Recap: Liquidity Taken – Price swept below key support zones, triggering stop-losses and clearing out retail longs. Support Levels – Minor zones were broken on the lower timeframes (LTF), but these are not structurally strong. Institutional Setup – Smart money often manipulates these levels before initiating the true directional move. 🧭 SCENARIO 1 – The Bullish Continuation (More Likely) The most probable outcome based on structure and liquidity behavior: Price opens bullish. Retests the broken minor support (now acting as demand). Buys triggered after confirmation. Targets: First TP: 0.82650 Second TP: 0.83500+ Break above = room for explosive movement toward 0.84000–0.84500 This aligns with the concept of liquidity engineering, where the market takes the weak hands out before the real move starts. ⚔️ SCENARIO 2 – The Last Sweep Before the Climb (Less Likely but Possible) If price opens bearish, we must remain vigilant: A final push lower could target the same liquidity zone again, further liquidating retail traders who jumped in early. If this occurs, the real bullish move would follow, catching everyone off guard. Entry would then be taken after a deeper retest + bullish market structure shift. 🧠 STRATEGY MINDSET: This isn’t guesswork — this is preparation. Retail sees chaos. Smart traders see order in manipulation. We don’t chase moves. We understand them. “The market punishes the impulsive and rewards the prepared.” I stand with patience. I wait for confirmation. I strike when the weak are removed and the zone is clean. 🔐 Remember: No confirmation = no entry. Adapt to the narrative the market gives you. If 0.81750 breaks down with strength → pause. Reevaluate. No ego. 📈 USD/CHF outlook: Bullish bias, smart entry only. Drop your thoughts, setups, or if you’re preparing for the same war. Let’s grow and conquer — one level at a time.
Long
by Calugareanu_Alexandru
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions Key Data Points Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts). Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected). Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%). Fed Policy Implications Labor Market Cooling but Resilient: Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration. Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum. Inflation Concerns Persist: Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors. Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices. Fed’s Balancing Act: Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness. Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical). Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction. Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening. Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks. Conclusion The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals. Summary: No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing. DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release. stay cautious #gold
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions Key Data Points Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts). Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected). Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%). Fed Policy Implications Labor Market Cooling but Resilient: Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration. Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum. Inflation Concerns Persist: Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors. Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices. Fed’s Balancing Act: Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness. Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical). Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction. Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening. Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks. Conclusion The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals. Summary: No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing. DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release. stay cautious #gold
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
DOLLARImpact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions Key Data Points Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts). Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected). Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%). Fed Policy Implications Labor Market Cooling but Resilient: Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration. Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum. Inflation Concerns Persist: Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors. Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices. Fed’s Balancing Act: Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness. Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical). Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction. Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening. Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks. Conclusion The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals. Summary: No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing. DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release. stay cautious #gold #DOLLAR
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions Key Data Points Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts). Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected). Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%). Fed Policy Implications Labor Market Cooling but Resilient: Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration. Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum. Inflation Concerns Persist: Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors. Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices. Fed’s Balancing Act: Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness. Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical). Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction. Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening. Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks. Conclusion The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals. Summary: No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing. DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release. stay cautious #gold
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPYEUR/JPY Analysis: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differentials, UIP, and Carry Trade 1. Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differentials Eurozone 10-Year Yield: ~2.50% (Germany’s benchmark yield, down 3bps post-ECB rate cut) . Japan 10-Year Yield: ~1.45% (recently fell to a 3-week low amid strong bond auctions) . Yield Spread: 2.50% (EUR)−1.45% (JPY)=+1.05% The Eurozone’s higher bond yield provides a carry advantage for EUR. Policy Rate Differential: ECB Deposit Rate: 2.00% (cut by 25bps on June 5, 2025) . BoJ Rate: 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025) . Rate Spread: 2.00% (EUR)−0.50% (JPY)=+1.50% 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Theory: The EUR should depreciate against JPY to offset the +1.50% rate spread, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. Reality: UIP often fails due to risk premiums and market dynamics. Despite the Eurozone’s higher rates, EUR/JPY remains supported by carry trade demand and JPY weakness tied to BoJ policy. 3. Carry Trade Dynamics Mechanics: Borrow JPY (0.5% rate) to invest in EUR assets (2.0% rate), profiting from the +1.50% rate spread and +1.05% yield spread. Current Viability: Opportunity: The yield and rate differentials favor EUR, making the carry trade attractive. Risks: ECB Dovishness: Further rate cuts (markets price ~28% chance of a July cut) could narrow the spread. BoJ Policy Shifts: Japan’s Ministry of Finance may reduce long-term bond issuance to curb yields , while the BoJ continues tapering bond purchases , limiting JPY weakness. Trade Tensions: U.S. tariff policies cited by the ECB and BoJ could heighten volatility. Key Data for JPY (Japan) June 6: 2-Year JGB Auction: Yield at 0.691% (prev. 0.68%), signaling stable short-term debt demand. 3-Month Bill Auction: Reflects liquidity conditions and BoJ policy expectations. Bank Lending YoY: Steady growth indicates domestic credit demand. June 10: PPI YoY: 4.0% (prev. 4.2%), easing input price pressures but still above BoJ’s 2% target. June 11: Machine Tool Orders YoY: 7.7% (prev. 8.1%), indicating slowing industrial demand amid global trade risks. 4. Key Economic Context Eurozone: ECB cut rates to 2.00% but kept future easing options open, citing trade tensions and revised inflation forecasts (2.0% for 2025) . Japan: BoJ held rates at 0.5% in May 2025, slashing GDP growth forecasts (0.5% for FY2025) due to trade risks . Summary Table Metric Eurozone (EUR) Japan (JPY) 10-Year Bond Yield 2.50% 1.45% Policy Rate 2.00% 0.50% Yield/Rate Spread +1.05% (bond), +1.50% (policy) — Carry Trade Bias Bullish for EUR Bearish for JPY Key Risks ECB dovishness, trade tensions BoJ yield control, fiscal sustainability Conclusion EUR/JPY Outlook: Moderately bullish for EUR due to yield and rate advantages, but UIP suggests potential long-term EUR depreciation. Carry Trade: Profitable if ECB maintains rates and JPY remains weak, but monitor ECB guidance (July meeting) and BoJ bond issuance plans. Trade Strategy: Favor EUR longs on dips toward demand floor.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The higher-than-expected US Unemployment Claims (247K actual vs. 236K forecast) suggest emerging softness in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Here’s how this data impacts the Fed’s policy outlook: Key Implications for the Fed Labor Market Cooling: The uptick in claims aligns with recent trends of slowing payroll growth (Q1 2025 average: 152K jobs/month vs. Q4 2024: 209K) and a stagnant unemployment rate near 4.2%. Fed projections already anticipate unemployment stabilizing around 4.3% in 2025, but persistent claims increases could signal risks to their "maximum employment" mandate. Rate Cut Probability: The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% since May 2025 but emphasized data dependence. Weak labor data strengthens the case for cuts, with markets now pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut (up from ~50% pre-data). The Fed’s March 2025 projections flagged rising unemployment as a risk, with some participants favoring earlier easing if labor conditions deteriorate. Inflation Trade-Off: While unemployment claims rose, wage growth remains elevated . The Fed will weigh labor softness against sticky inflation, A cooling labor market could ease wage pressures, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight and enabling cuts without reigniting price spikes. Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to weaken further as rate cut expectations rise. Immediate support at 98.40, with a break targeting 97.00 Equities/Gold: Potential gains as lower rates boost risk assets and non-yielding gold. Bond Yields: 10-year Treasury yields may retreat below 4.40% if markets price in dovish Fed action. What’s Next? June 6 NFP Report: A weak jobs number (<150K) would solidify rate cut bets. June 11 CPI Data: Lower inflation could give the Fed confidence to cut sooner. Fed Decision (July 31): Odds of a cut rise if labor data continues to soften. Conclusion The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over inflation concerns if unemployment claims persist above 240K. While a July cut remains possible, September is the most probable start date for easing, contingent on confirming data.#GOLD
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub