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Harmonic Patterns

GOLD China’s massive gold purchases carry significant geopolitical implications that reshape global economic and financial power dynamics: 1. Dedollarization and Reduced US Dollar Dominance China’s aggressive gold accumulation is a core part of its strategy to reduce dependence on the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic decoupling. By increasing gold reserves-while sharply cutting US Treasury holdings-China aims to insulate itself from dollar-related risks such as sanctions or asset freezes, as highlighted by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict experience. This shift undermines the dollar’s global reserve currency status and supports the emergence of a more multipolar currency system. 2. Enhanced Sovereignty and Financial Security Gold provides China with a tangible, sovereign asset that cannot be frozen or devalued by foreign powers. This strengthens China’s economic autonomy and resilience against external pressures, especially amid ongoing US-China trade conflicts and Taiwan tensions. Physical gold reserves bolster confidence in China’s currency (yuan) and financial system, helping to back efforts to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on Western financial infrastructure. 3. Geopolitical Influence and Economic Restructuring China’s gold market dominance is part of a broader “economic divorce” from the West, reflecting deglobalization trends and the formation of alternative trading and financial systems led by BRICS and allied nations. By controlling significant gold supplies and refining capacity, China gains leverage in global commodity markets and strengthens its geopolitical influence, challenging US-led economic order. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets and US Economy China’s gold buying fuels a “virtuous cycle” for itself but a “vicious cycle” for the US: rising gold prices in dollar terms signal dollar weakness, prompting further diversification away from dollar assets, reducing demand for US Treasuries, pushing US bond yields higher, and increasing US borrowing costs. This dynamic pressures US fiscal stability and economic growth. 5. Strategic Resource Control and Long-Term Planning The recent discovery of a massive gold deposit in China’s Hunan province (over 1,100 tonnes) further strengthens China’s position, potentially boosting reserves by 44% and reducing reliance on imports. This strategic resource control enhances China’s ability to influence global gold supply and pricing, reinforcing its geopolitical and economic ambitions.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Nasdaq - Printing The Obvious Bottom!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) already finished the correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 After we witnessed a minor "crash" of about -25% over the past couple of weeks, the bottom might be in on the Nasdaq. We simply saw another very bullish all time high break and retest and depite the possibility of a second retest, I am (still) extremely bullish at these levels. Levels to watch: $17.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
10
GOLDChina's central bank is aggressively accumulating gold reserves as part of a multifaceted strategic agenda, driven by the following factors: 1. Diversification Away from US Dollar Assets China is reducing reliance on US Treasuries, converting proceeds into gold to mitigate risks from US sanctions, trade tensions, and dollar volatility. Gold now represents 6.5% of China’s total foreign reserves (up from 5.9% in January 2025), signaling a deliberate shift toward non-USD assets. 2. Geopolitical and Economic Hedging Escalating US-China trade conflicts (e.g., tariffs) and Taiwan tensions have heightened the need for a "safe haven" asset to insulate China’s economy. Gold’s role as a crisis hedge is critical amid fears of financial instability or sanctions, especially with the US targeting Chinese exports. 3. Supporting the Yuan’s Global Role Gold reserves bolster confidence in the yuan, aiding its internationalization and positioning it as a credible alternative to the dollar in trade settlements. The PBOC’s gold-backed digital yuan initiative aims to enhance its appeal as a global reserve currency. 4. State-Mandated Institutional Demand Chinese insurers and pension funds are required to allocate 1% of assets to gold, absorbing ~30–40% of global annual supply. This creates structural supply deficits, driving up prices and reinforcing gold’s value in China’s reserves. 5. Undisclosed Strategic Stockpiling Officially reported reserves (2,292t) likely understate holdings. Analysts estimate 40,000+ tonnes when including military and state-controlled entities. Secret stockpiling prepares China for potential crises, including wartime financing or currency stabilization. 6. Market Dynamics and Price Control The PBOC’s sustained purchases (12.8t in Q1 2025) and Shanghai Futures Exchange activity have fueled gold’s 20% price surge in 2025, enhancing reserve values. By dominating physical markets, China gains influence over global gold pricing, reducing dependence on Western exchanges. Summary: Reduce USD dependency Swap Treasuries for gold Insulates against US policy risks Yuan internationalization Back currency with gold reserves Enhances trust in digital yuan Geopolitical hedge Prepare for trade/currency wars Stabilizes economy during crises Control supply/pricing Mandate institutional buying, restrict exports Tightens global supply, supports prices China’s gold strategy is a calculated response to global instability, aiming to secure economic sovereignty and challenge the dollar’s dominance. This trend is expected to persist, with analysts forecasting gold could reach $4,500/oz by late 2025 due to China-driven demand
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSDInterest Rate Differential The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in early May 2025, with further cuts anticipated later in the year due to a downgraded UK economic outlook and weak growth forecasts. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has kept rates steady around 4.50%, with only modest rate cuts priced in for the remainder of 2025, reflecting a relatively stronger US economy. This creates a widening interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, which tends to weigh on GBP/USD. Directional Bias for May 2025 The GBP/USD pair faces downside pressure due to the BoE’s dovish stance and expected rate cuts versus the Fed’s more hawkish or steady policy.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
SILVER XAGUSD Silver Demand Trends in 2025 Global silver demand is forecast to remain broadly stable in 2025 at around 1.20 billion ounces, with industrial use hitting a new record high. This is driven by ongoing growth in green technologies (solar panels, EVs), electronics, and AI-related products. Industrial demand is expected to surpass 700 million ounces for the first time, while demand for coins and bars is rebounding in Western markets after a sharp drop in 2024. Despite stable demand, the silver market remains in a structural deficit for the fifth year, with a 2025 shortfall projected at 117.6 million ounces-though this deficit is narrowing due to increased mine supply, especially from Mexico and Poland. Which Country is Stockpiling Silver? China is aggressively stockpiling silver in 2025. China is purchasing large quantities of unrefined silver concentrate directly from Latin American refiners and miners, securing supply before it reaches the global spot market. This strategy is driven by surging domestic industrial demand (especially for solar panels) and declining Chinese mine output. How the China–Taiwan Conflict Affects Silver Geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan-and broader US-China trade frictions-are major drivers of silver price volatility and demand in 2025: Safe-haven demand: Investors are turning to silver (alongside gold) as a hedge against geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, and potential supply disruptions. Industrial risk: Tariffs and potential conflict threaten global electronics and solar manufacturing supply chains, both of which are major consumers of silver. Strategic stockpiling: China’s accumulation of silver is partly a defensive measure in case of sanctions, trade blockades, or conflict with Taiwan and the US, ensuring access to critical industrial inputs. Market impact: These factors have led to sharp price swings, with silver rallying nearly 4% in a single day during recent trade war escalations. Physical shortages are emerging, and above-ground inventories are at multi-year lows. Summary Table China’s industrial growth & stockpiling Increases global demand, tightens supply China–Taiwan–US tensions Boosts safe-haven and strategic demand Trade war/tariffs Disrupts supply chains, adds volatility Physical inventory depletion Supports higher prices, risk of shortages In summary: Silver demand in 2025 remains robust, especially for industrial uses. China is the leading country stockpiling silver, buying directly from Latin America to secure supply amid falling domestic output and rising demand. The China–Taiwan conflict and US-China trade tensions are key catalysts, fueling safe-haven buying, strategic accumulation, and price volatility. These dynamics are likely to keep silver in a structural deficit and support elevated prices throughout the year.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Gold buying is exceptionally high in 2025, and this surge is directly linked to geopolitical tensions-especially between China, Taiwan, and the United States-as well as broader trade and economic uncertainty. Key Reasons for High Gold Buying 1. Geopolitical Risk: China–Taiwan–US Tensions Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven due to escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the broader US-China relationship. Even without open conflict, the risk of confrontation or trade war is enough to drive up demand for gold. The mere threat of a China-Taiwan conflict is seen as a potential trigger for global financial shocks, prompting investors to hedge against instability by accumulating gold. 2. Central Bank and Institutional Buying (Led by China) Central banks, especially China’s, are buying gold at record levels. In Q1 2025, China’s central bank added 95 tonnes of gold to its reserves, part of a broader move to diversify away from US dollar assets. This central bank accumulation is a major structural driver of gold’s price surge, providing persistent upward pressure even as other asset classes remain volatile. 3. Trade War and Tariff Uncertainty The US has announced aggressive new tariffs on Chinese goods, and China is expected to retaliate. This has reignited fears of a global trade war, further fueling safe-haven demand for gold. Gold is less affected by tariffs than other assets, making it particularly attractive during periods of trade friction. 4. Dollar Weakness and Portfolio Diversification A sharp decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also contributed to gold’s rise, as investors seek assets that are less exposed to dollar depreciation. Regulatory changes in China have allowed more institutional and insurance fund investment in gold, further boosting demand. Summary Table Driver Gold Buying Impact China–Taiwan–US Geopolitical Risk Strongly increases demand Chinese Central Bank Accumulation Structural, sustained boost Trade War/Tariff Uncertainty Safe-haven flows surge Dollar Weakness Makes gold more attractive In summary: Gold buying is at record highs due to a combination of China–Taiwan–US geopolitical risk, aggressive central bank purchases (especially by China), trade war fears, and a weaker dollar. The situation in Taiwan is a major catalyst, as any escalation would have global economic consequences, making gold the preferred hedge for both institutions and individual investors.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Indicators that Warn of a Top or Bottom Before It HappensHybrid Leading Indicators use all 3 data sets from each transaction that occurs in the stock market. Today this lesson talks about Chaikin Oscillator and Chaikin MFI. Both are used on the same chart as the volume oscillator reveals the volume and price correlation to what the Dark Pool Buy Side institutions are buying or selling for long term holds. The oscillator also shows pro trader activity and indicates with a spike to the top or bottom of its chart a probable reversal of the trend the next day. When the Oscillator spikes to the top, then a profit taking day by pros or a run down is likely the next day. When the oscillator hits a V shape at the bottom of the chart, the stock price is likely to move up the next day, warning those selling short to exit quickly. The oscillator also shows topping price and volume changes before the Flat Top forms. It also shows Bottoming development before the recent rebound in $NASDAQ:PYPL. Money Flowing into or out of a stock is also a critical analysis for swing traders as it confirm whether you should continue swing trading to the upside OR if you should switch quickly to selling short. MFI in this chart is harmonious with the oscillator, both confirming a strong indication of the direction the stock will take over the next few days. A bottoming formation starts well ahead of the actual final low. This is important to recognize early when selling short, to avoid a huge whipsaw day that can cause huge sell short losses. When you can read the chart as easily as you read a book, your Spatial Pattern Recognition Skills are finely tuned and you can be proud to be a member of the semi-professional retail swing traders. Let that be your goal, along with consistent profits with minimal losses. Raise your expectations. Trade Wisely, Martha Stokes CMT
NASDAQ:PYPL
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
BITCOIN WEEKLY CHARTBitcoin Break of Supply Roof: Implications for Price Action Bitcoin’s recent breach of a critical supply roof (resistance zone between $95,000–$98,300) has significant implications for its near-term price trajectory. this range may represent a "supply roof" where holders accumulated Bitcoin. A breakout suggests these holders are either holding for higher prices or have already distributed, reducing immediate selling pressure. On-Chain and Fundamental Support Institutional Demand: Corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy) and ETFs continue accumulating Bitcoin, reducing available supply. Negative Funding Rates: Despite price gains, futures markets show neutral-to-negative funding rates, indicating room for leveraged longs to enter. Post-Halving Scarcity: The April 2024 halving has tightened new supply, with only ~19.86 million BTC in circulation (94% of total supply mined). Conclusion A decisive breakout above $98,000 would signal a bullish regime shift, targeting $100,000–$109,000 in May/June. However, traders should watch for volume confirmation and macroeconomic cues to validate the move. Failure to hold gains could see Bitcoin retest lower support, but the broader 2025 outlook remains bullish, with institutional adoption and scarcity dynamics underpinning long-term upside. Critical events this week: US CPI data (May 30) and ETF flow trends will be pivotal for sustaining momentum.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
XAUUSD is ready to FALL monthly target 3000!Through my weekly Episode multi time frame analysis , you will get deep insights . Market in on rising channel since last year and did not respect the 2900 milestone after breaking it. is it the time to retracement? our eyes will be at 2980 milestone on this next 2weekly candles. bearish scenario: if any h4,D1 close below 3160 stay bearish side and our setup. bullish scenario if market again surpass 3280 then buying up to 3330 then 3360 where we have again selling sequence to 3000 milestone. I'm expecting the bullish scenario I have mention will not activated.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Forexmaestro121
UK100 FTSEWhat is UK100? UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 Index or the Footsie, is the United Kingdom’s premier stock market index. It tracks the performance of the 100 largest and most highly capitalized blue-chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The index is capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with larger market caps have a greater influence on the index’s movements. As of March 2025, the FTSE 100 had a total market capitalization of approximately £2.12 trillion. The index includes many internationally focused companies, so its performance is influenced by global economic factors and currency exchange rates, not just the UK economy. Does Bond Yield Affect UK100? Yes, bond yields significantly affect the FTSE 100 in several ways: Rising UK government bond yields (gilts) increase borrowing costs for companies, which can reduce profits and weigh on stock prices, including those in the FTSE 100. Higher bond yields also make fixed-income investments more attractive relative to equities, potentially causing capital to flow out of stocks and into bonds, putting downward pressure on the index. Conversely, falling bond yields lower borrowing costs and often encourage investment in equities, supporting the FTSE 100. Bond yield movements are also influenced by monetary policy expectations, inflation outlook, and fiscal policy, which indirectly impact stock valuations. Recent volatility in German and UK bond yields has caused ripple effects in the FTSE 100, reflecting concerns about interest rates and economic outlook. Major Companies That Make Up UK100 (Selected Key Constituents) The FTSE 100 includes companies from various sectors such as banking, energy, healthcare, consumer goods, and industrials. Some of the largest and most influential companies by market capitalization as of 2025 include: Company Sector Approx. Market Cap (2025) AstraZeneca Healthcare £190+ billion Shell Energy £185+ billion HSBC Holdings Banking & Financials £130+ billion Unilever Consumer Goods £100+ billion Rio Tinto Mining & Materials £95+ billion BP Energy £85+ billion GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Healthcare £75+ billion Diageo Consumer Goods Large-cap Barclays Banking & Financials Large-cap British American Tobacco Consumer Goods Large-cap The FTSE 100 covers 20 industry sectors, with Banks, Health Care, Industrial Goods & Services, and Energy sectors making up about 50% of the index’s total capitalization. Summary What is UK100? The FTSE 100 Index, tracking the 100 largest UK-listed companies by market cap Bond Yield Impact Rising yields increase borrowing costs and attract capital to bonds, often pressuring stocks; falling yields support equities Key Companies AstraZeneca, Shell, HSBC, Unilever, Rio Tinto, BP, GSK, Diageo, Barclays, British American Tobacco In conclusion, the UK100 (FTSE 100) is a major UK stock market index heavily influenced by global economic factors, including bond yields. Movements in UK government bond yields affect corporate borrowing costs and investor asset allocation decisions, thereby impacting the FTSE 100’s price action. The index is dominated by large multinational companies across diverse sectors, making it a broad indicator of UK-listed blue-chip performance
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by Shavyfxhub
GER40What is GER40? GER40, commonly known as the DAX 40, is Germany’s premier stock market index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest and most liquid German blue-chip companies listed primarily on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It reflects the overall health of the German economy and is a key benchmark for European equity markets. The DAX 40 is a market-capitalization-weighted index using a free-float methodology, meaning it only considers shares available for public trading. It is a total return index, which means dividends paid by constituent companies are reinvested in the index calculation. The index replaced the previous DAX 30 in September 2021 by expanding the number of constituents from 30 to 40 companies. Does Bond Yield Affect GER40? Yes, bond yields do affect the GER40 price movements, as they influence the cost of capital, investor risk appetite, and economic outlook: Rising German government bond yields typically increase borrowing costs for companies, which can weigh on corporate profits and stock valuations, potentially pressuring the DAX 40 lower. Higher yields may also make fixed income more attractive relative to equities, causing capital to flow out of stocks into bonds. Conversely, falling bond yields lower borrowing costs and often signal economic uncertainty, which can support or sometimes depress stocks depending on the context. The DAX 40’s sensitivity to bond yields is also influenced by broader European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and global risk sentiment. Additionally, the US Treasury yields and US Dollar strength indirectly impact the GER40 by affecting global capital flows and export competitiveness of German multinational companies. Companies That Make Up GER40 (Selected Major Constituents) The DAX 40 consists of 39 companies (due to share classes) across various sectors. Here are some key members with their sectors and approximate market caps: Company Ticker Sector Market Cap (Approx.) Adidas AG ADS Personal Goods €36.5 billion Airbus SE AIR Aerospace & Defence €122.8 billion Allianz SE ALV Life Insurance €141.1 billion BASF SE BAS Chemicals €40.2 billion Bayer AG BAYN Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology €22.6 billion BMW AG BMW Automobiles & Parts €44.7 billion Deutsche Bank AG DBK Banks €45.0 billion Deutsche Telekom AG DTE Telecommunications €157.0 billion Infineon Technologies AG IFX Technology Hardware & Equipment €37.8 billion Mercedes-Benz Group AG MBG Automobiles & Parts €50.8 billion Siemens AG SIE Industrial Conglomerate (Included in DAX) SAP SE SAP Software & IT Services (Included in DAX) Volkswagen AG VOW3 Automobiles & Parts (Included in DAX) Deutsche Post AG DHL Commercial Transportation €45.4 billion Munich Re (Muenchener Rueck) MUV2 Reinsurance €80.5 billion (There are 39 stocks tracked due to share classes; full list includes companies from chemicals, healthcare, insurance, technology, automotive, and industrial sectors.) Summary What is GER40? Germany’s main blue-chip index tracking 40 largest companies on Frankfurt Stock Exchange Bond Yield Impact Rising yields can pressure stocks via higher borrowing costs; falling yields can support stocks depending on context Key Companies Adidas, Airbus, Allianz, BASF, Bayer, BMW, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Telekom, Infineon, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, SAP, Volkswagen, Munich Re, Deutsche Post, etc. The GER40 is heavily influenced by Germany’s economic conditions, ECB policy, global trade dynamics, and bond market movements. Rising bond yields generally create headwinds for the index, while falling yields and accommodative monetary policy tend to support it.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Shavyfxhub
US30What is US30? The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow 30, is a widely followed stock market index that tracks the performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies. These companies are considered some of the most important and influential in the U.S. economy, representing a diverse range of sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, consumer goods, and industrials. The index is price-weighted, meaning that stocks with higher share prices have a greater impact on the index’s value than those with lower prices. The DJIA is calculated by adding the prices of all 30 component stocks and dividing by a divisor that adjusts for stock splits and other corporate actions. The US30 acts as a barometer of the U.S. stock market and overall economic health, though it only includes 30 companies and is not weighted by market capitalization like the S&P 500. Companies That Make Up the US30 (As of 2025) The 30 companies in the US30 include some of the largest and most influential U.S. corporations: Apple Inc. (AAPL) – Technology Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – Technology Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) – Technology Visa Inc. (V) – Financial Services Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Healthcare Procter & Gamble Company (PG) – Consumer Goods Walmart Inc. (WMT) – Retail JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) – Financial Services The Coca-Cola Company (KO) – Consumer Goods The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) – Retail McDonald's Corporation (MCD) – Consumer Services UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) – Healthcare The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) – Insurance The Boeing Company (BA) – Aerospace & Defense Amgen Inc. (AMGN) – Biotechnology Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) – Financial Services Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) – Machinery Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) – Pharmaceuticals Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) – Technology Chevron Corporation (CVX) – Energy IBM Corporation (IBM) – Technology Honeywell International Inc. (HON) – Industrials Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) – Technology The Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Media & Entertainment Nie, Inc. (NKE) – Consumer Goods Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – Telecommunications American Express Company (AXP) – Financial Services 3M Company (MMM) – Conglomerates Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) – Retail Dow Inc. (DOW) – Chemicals How Bond Yields and the US Dollar (DXY) Affect US30 Price Movement Bond Yields Impact Rising bond yields (especially U.S. Treasury yields) generally increase borrowing costs for companies, which can dampen corporate profits and weigh on stock prices, including those in the US30. Higher yields can also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, causing some investors to shift capital out of equities and into fixed income, putting downward pressure on the US30. Conversely, falling bond yields reduce borrowing costs and can boost stock valuations, supporting gains in the US30. US Dollar Index (DXY) Impact The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of major currencies. A stronger dollar can hurt multinational companies in the US30 by making their exports more expensive and reducing the value of overseas earnings when converted back to USD, often leading to downward pressure on the index. A weaker dollar tends to support US30 companies with significant international sales, potentially boosting the index. Additionally, dollar strength often reflects risk-off sentiment, which can coincide with stock market declines, while dollar weakness often aligns with risk-on sentiment and rising equities. Summary Factor Effect on US30 Price Movement Rising Bond Yields Negative: Higher borrowing costs, shift to bonds Falling Bond Yields Positive: Lower borrowing costs, stocks more attractive Stronger US Dollar Negative: Exporters hurt, overseas earnings worth less Weaker US Dollar Positive: Boosts multinational earnings, supports stocks In essence, the US30 reflects the performance of 30 major U.S. companies weighted by stock price. Its price movements are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as bond yields and the US dollar, which affect corporate profitability and investor risk appetite.
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by Shavyfxhub
BITCOINBitcoin Break of Supply Roof: Implications for Price Action Bitcoin’s recent breach of a critical supply roof (resistance zone between $95,000–$98,300) has significant implications for its near-term price trajectory. this range may represent a "supply roof" where holders accumulated Bitcoin. A breakout suggests these holders are either holding for higher prices or have already distributed, reducing immediate selling pressure. On-Chain and Fundamental Support Institutional Demand: Corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy) and ETFs continue accumulating Bitcoin, reducing available supply. Negative Funding Rates: Despite price gains, futures markets show neutral-to-negative funding rates, indicating room for leveraged longs to enter. Post-Halving Scarcity: The April 2024 halving has tightened new supply, with only ~19.86 million BTC in circulation (94% of total supply mined). Conclusion A decisive breakout above $98,000 would signal a bullish regime shift, targeting $100,000–$109,000 in May/June. However, traders should watch for volume confirmation and macroeconomic cues to validate the move. Failure to hold gains could see Bitcoin retest lower support, but the broader 2025 outlook remains bullish, with institutional adoption and scarcity dynamics underpinning long-term upside. Critical events this week: US CPI data (May 30) and ETF flow trends will be pivotal for sustaining momentum.
Long
by Shavyfxhub