DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week
Department Responsible:
US PMIs: S&P Global.
Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept
Key Events and Data Releases
S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24)
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7).
Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0).
Impact:
Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity.
Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise.
Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2)
Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports.
Impact:
Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑).
Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓).
Fed Speeches
FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓.
DXY Technical Outlook
Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst
Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation
Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation
Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm
Fed’s Data Dependency:
The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility.
Bearish Momentum:
DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84
Trump Policies:
Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation).
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum
Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100
Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts.
Volatility Triggers:
April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation.
Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction.
the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
