Harmonic Patterns
Trading GOLD At All-Time Highs - 2 Methods for Profit TakingGold has broken out to all-time highs, leaving traders asking: “Where should I take profits when there’s no structure to target?”
In this video, I’ll walk you through two proven methods for setting profit targets when trading in uncharted territory:
🔹 Price Action & Technical Tools – measured moves, AB=CD patterns, Fibonacci extensions (127 & 1618), and wedge breakout projections.
🔹 Indicator-Based Exits – using RSI, stochastics, and volatility bands (Keltner Channels / Bollinger Bands) to identify exhaustion and exit signals.
You’ll learn:
✅ How to set profit targets without previous structure
✅ Why thinking like the “other trader” gives you an edge
✅ Why catching part of the move beats chasing the very top
If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below.
Akil
SILVER XAGUSD SILVER BULLS WINS ON ECONOMIC DATA REPORT AND KEEPS GAINS
BREAKDOWN.
Indicator Current Forecast Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Non-Farm Employment Change 22,000 75,000 79,000
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
Fed Interpretation:
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% m/m): In line with forecasts and previous data, showing steady wage growth. Stable wage growth suggests moderate inflation pressure from labor costs.
Non-Farm Employment Change (22,000): Significantly below forecast (75,000) and previous month (79,000), indicating a sharp slowdown in job creation. This suggests labor market cooling, potentially reflecting economic slowdown or more cautious hiring by employers.
The agency responsible for the US Non-Farm Employment Change data is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor
The report, often released on the first Friday of each month, measures the change in the number of people employed in the US excluding farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees.
It is based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey which covers about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 worksites.
The data provides detailed insights into employment, hours worked, and earnings across various industries.
The report is closely watched as a key indicator of labor market health and overall economic performance.
Unemployment Rate (4.3%): Slightly increased from previous 4.2%, matching forecast. A rising unemployment rate confirms some softening in labor market conditions.
The agency responsible for measuring and reporting the Unemployment Rate in the United States is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL).
Key Points:
The Unemployment Rate is part of the monthly Employment Situation Report produced by the BLS.
It measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless but actively seeking work.
Data for the unemployment rate is collected through the Current Population Survey (CPS), which surveys approximately 60,000 households.
The BLS releases the unemployment rate and other labor statistics on the first Friday of every month.
The Department of Labor oversees the BLS, which is responsible for gathering and disseminating this critical labor market data that influences economic policy, including Federal Reserve decisions.
Summary:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): the official source for the unemployment rate.
U.S. Department of Labor (DOL): the parent department supervising BLS operations.
The unemployment rate data helps assess economic health and guides policy decisions on employment and inflation.
Overall Fed Takeaway:
The marked slowdown in job growth combined with a slight rise in unemployment signals weakening labor market strength
Stable wage growth limits upside inflation risks from labor costs.
These signals suggest easing inflation pressures and a slowing economy, which might encourage the Fed to pause further rate hikes or consider cutting rates soon to support growth.
The Fed will likely weigh this data alongside other inflation and economic indicators to decide the next policy step but may lean cautiously towards easing given the weaker jobs data.
In summary, today’s data points to a moderating labor market with controlled wage inflation that supports a more dovish Fed approach in upcoming meetings.
DXY DEFENDED 97,428 ON DATA RPORT AND CLOSE THE 4HR ABOVE KEY SUPPORT STRUCTURE TO 97.722 AS AT REPORTING.
THE US 10Y BOND YIELD 4.056% SINKING TODAY BUT ON STRUCTURE THE US10Y IS ON DEMANDFLOOR AND BOND BUYING COULD OFFSET GOLS GAINS TODAY.
OPEN OF NEXT WEEK GOLD WILL CORRECT BECAUSE ITS OVER BOUGHT.
#GOLD #DXY #US10Y #DOLLAR
GOLDAverage Hourly Earnings (m/m): Expected to rise by 0.3%, unchanged from previous.
Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecast at 75,000 new jobs, slightly above last month's 73,000.
Unemployment Rate: The latest figure is expected today but the forecast is not provided here.
How the US Dollar (USD) Might React to the Data:
If the data exceed forecasts (stronger jobs growth, higher hourly earnings, lower unemployment):
This signals a robust labor market and potential inflationary pressure.
The Federal Reserve might maintain or raise interest rates to prevent overheating.
The USD would likely strengthen as higher rates attract foreign capital and boost demand for the dollar.
If the data come in weaker than forecasts (slower jobs growth, stagnant or falling earnings, higher unemployment):
This suggests economic slowdown and reduced inflation risks.
The Fed may consider cutting or pausing rate hikes to support growth.
The USD would likely weaken as interest rate expectations decline and capital flows out.
Summary:
Positive labor data generally boost USD.
Negative labor data generally weaken USD.
Market reaction depends on how results influence the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
If the actual unemployment rate is also released, I can provide an updated interpretation of its impact on the dollar.Here are the current US labor market data forecasts:
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (previous 0.3%)
Non-Farm Employment Change: 75,000 (previous 73,000)
Unemployment Rate: Expected today (forecast not specified)
How the USD Could React:
If actual data are greater than forecasts (e.g., stronger job gains, higher wage growth, lower unemployment), this signals a robust economy that could sustain Fed rate hikes or reduce the chance of cuts. The US dollar would likely strengthen as investors anticipate higher interest rates attracting capital inflows.
If actual data are less than forecasts (e.g., weaker job growth, flat wages, higher unemployment), it could indicate economic slowing and potential Fed easing. In this scenario, the US dollar would likely weaken as expectations shift toward lower interest rates or rate cuts.
The reaction depends on how these labor indicators influence market expectations around Fed monetary policy. Strong labor data usually support a firmer USD, while weaker data lead to a softer USD.
If the exact unemployment rate number releases, I can update the analysis further.Here are the current US labor market data forecasts:
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (previous 0.3%)
Non-Farm Employment Change: 75,000 (previous 73,000)
Unemployment Rate: Expected today (forecast not specified)
How the USD Could React:
If actual data are greater than forecasts (e.g., stronger job gains, higher wage growth, lower unemployment), this signals a robust economy that could sustain Fed rate hikes or reduce the chance of cuts. The US dollar would likely strengthen as investors anticipate higher interest rates attracting capital inflows.
If actual data are less than forecasts (e.g., weaker job growth, flat wages, higher unemployment), it could indicate economic slowing and potential Fed easing. In this scenario, the US dollar would likely weaken as expectations shift toward lower interest rates or rate cuts.
The reaction depends on how these labor indicators influence market expectations around Fed monetary policy. Strong labor data usually support a firmer USD, while weaker data lead to a softer USD.
Nasdaq - Preparing for another correction!🚔Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting to look weak:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, we witnessed an incredible rally on the Nasdaq. Following this previous price action, it is quite likely that we will soon see another correction. This could start with the current retest of the channel resistance trendline.
📝Levels to watch:
$23.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
GBPUSD - Trade Plan Heading into NY SessionTaking a look at GBPUSD on the 1 hour timeframe, I'm expecting to see a retest of around the 1.35 handle. Once price action reaches that zone, I'll simply be looking to implement my scaling short sell strategy. I'll likely enable my Expert Advisor for MT5 to manage this trade.
Tesla - The triangle is still valid!🚔Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains totally bullish:
🔎Analysis summary:
If we look at the chart of Tesla, we can see a very long term consolidation over the past four years. This, however, does not mean that the bullrun is over but rather preparing for the next bullish move. We just have to wait for the bullish ascending triangle pattern breakout.
📝Levels to watch:
$400
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Robinhood - This is still not the end!🏹Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD ) is not done yet:
🔎Analysis summary:
After creating a quadruple bottom formation back in 2023, Robinhood managed to rally an incredible +1.400%. It seems to be obvious that Robinhood has to correct soon, but that's not how markets work. Momentum tends to continue for much longer so Robinhood will just rally more.
📝Levels to watch:
$150
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION