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Harmonic Patterns

GBPUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Long
by okako_trading
DOLLAR INDEXRelationship Between the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rates, and Carry Trade 1. Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-Year Bond Yield The DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield generally have a direct (positive) relationship: When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen. When yields fall, the dollar usually weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US dollar and pushing up its value. However, this relationship is not perfect and can be influenced by other factors like economic data, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy expectations. 2. Interest Rates and Their Impact Interest rates set by central banks (e.g., Fed funds rate) influence bond yields and currency values. Higher interest rates generally lead to higher bond yields, attracting capital inflows and strengthening the currency (USD). Conversely, lower rates tend to weaken the currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. The interest rate differential between countries is crucial: it reflects the relative attractiveness of holding one currency over another, driving capital flows and currency movements. 3. Carry Trade and Its Role The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher yields to earn the interest rate differential. For example, investors may borrow in Japanese yen (low rates) and invest in US dollars (higher rates), buying US bonds or assets. This strategy increases demand for the higher-yielding currency (USD), pushing up its value and often correlating with rising bond yields in that country. Carry trades are typically based on short-term interest rate differentials, but recent research indicates that the entire yield curve (including long-term yields) also affects currency returns and carry trade profitability. The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) theory suggests carry trade returns should be zero after adjusting for exchange rate changes, but empirically, carry trades have yielded excess returns, partly due to risk premia and market inefficiencies. what is UIP??? Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental economic theory that relates the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries to the expected change in their currency exchange rates over the same period. It asserts that the expected depreciation or appreciation of a currency will offset the interest rate differential, eliminating the possibility of arbitrage profits from borrowing in one currency and investing in another without hedging exchange rate risk. Key Points about UIP: Interest Rate Differential Equals Expected Exchange Rate Change: The difference between the interest rates of two countries should equal the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies. For example, if Country A has a higher interest rate than Country B, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to Country B’s currency by approximately the interest rate difference. No Arbitrage Condition Without Hedging: Unlike covered interest rate parity (which uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk), UIP assumes investors do not hedge their currency exposure. Therefore, the expected spot exchange rate at the end of the investment horizon adjusts to offset potential gains from interest rate differences. Implication: If a country offers higher interest rates, its currency is expected to depreciate to prevent riskless profit opportunities. This reflects foreign exchange market equilibrium. Relation to Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): UIP is connected to the law of one price, which states that identical goods should cost the same globally when prices are expressed in a common currency. Similarly, UIP ensures that returns on investments in different currencies are equalized once exchange rate changes are considered. Practical Use: UIP helps explain and forecast currency movements based on interest rate differentials but is often violated in the short term due to market imperfections, risk premiums, and investor behavior. In summary, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity states that the expected change in exchange rates between two currencies offsets the interest rate differential, so investors earn the same return regardless of the currency in which they invest, assuming no hedging of currency risk. 4. Bond Prices and Interest Rates Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship: When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. This dynamic affects currency values indirectly, as falling bond prices (rising yields) attract capital inflows, strengthening the currency and the DXY. Summary Table Factor Relationship with USD / DXY Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Positive correlation Higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting USD Interest Rates Positive correlation Higher rates increase returns on USD assets Interest Rate Differential Drives carry trade and currency flows Larger spread favors higher-yielding currency Carry Trade Supports USD when borrowing low-rate currency and investing in USD Increases demand for USD and US bonds Bond Prices Inverse to yields; indirectly affects USD Falling bond prices (rising yields) strengthen USD Conclusion The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield and interest rates because higher yields and rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the dollar. The carry trade exploits interest rate differentials, further supporting the dollar when investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding US assets. Bond prices inversely relate to yields, and their fluctuations indirectly influence the dollar through these mechanisms. #DOLLAR #GOLD #
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSDGBP/USD Upcoming Economic Data, 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rate Differential, and Carry Trade (June 1–10, 2025) 1. Upcoming Economic Data (June 1–10, 2025) Date Event Expected Impact on GBP/USD June 2 UK PMI Composite (May) Strong PMI supports GBP; weak data pressures GBP June 3 UK Services PMI Key for assessing UK economic momentum; influences GBP sentiment June 4 UK Construction PMI Reflects sector health; positive print supports GBP June 6 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Strong US jobs data strengthens USD, pressures GBP/USD June 6 US Average Hourly Earnings Wage growth impacts Fed policy outlook and USD strength June 9 UK GDP (Preliminary Q1) Critical for BoE policy outlook; strong GDP supports GBP June 10 UK CPI Inflation (May) Higher inflation may delay BoE cuts, supporting GBP Note: UK inflation data recently printed higher than expected, and US jobs data will be a major driver of USD strength. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differential UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: Approximately 4.77% (as of late May 2025) US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Approximately 4.51% (late May 2025) Yield Spread: 4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26% The UK’s higher bond yield provides a modest carry advantage for GBP over USD. Policy Rates: Bank of England (BoE): 4.25% (recently cut by 25bps) Federal Reserve (Fed): 4.25–4.50% Interest Rate Differential: Slightly favors USD on policy rates but favors GBP on bond yields. 3. Carry Trade Directional Bias The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with lower interest rates and investing in one with higher yields. Given the UK’s higher 10-year gilt yields (+0.26%), there is a modest carry trade advantage supporting GBP against USD. However, the Fed’s slightly higher policy rate and the BoE’s dovish stance (rate cuts expected) temper this advantage. Overall, the carry trade bias for GBP/USD is neutral to slightly bullish for GBP, supported by bond yields but capped by policy rate expectations. 4. Technical and Market Outlook GBP/USD recently tested resistance near supply roof and faced selling pressure, but got support the broken supply roof on daily and now trades on the floor as demand . Market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff negotiations impacting USD strength. The upcoming US jobs data (June 6) is a key event that could sway USD and thus GBP/USD direction. Summary Table Metric UK (GBP) US (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield ~4.77% ~4.51% Policy Interest Rate 4.25% (BoE) 4.25–4.50% (Fed) Yield Spread (10Y) +0.26% (GBP over USD) — Interest Rate Differential Slightly favors USD — Carry Trade Directional Bias Neutral to slightly bullish for GBP — Key Upcoming Data UK PMI, GDP, CPI US NFP, Wage Data Conclusion GBP/USD faces a mixed outlook with modest carry trade support from higher UK bond yields but pressure from Fed’s higher policy rates and USD strength. Upcoming UK data (PMI, GDP, CPI) will shape BoE policy expectations and GBP sentiment. US jobs data on June 6 is critical for USD direction and, by extension, GBP/USD. #gbpusd #dollar
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Additional factors supporting gold’s bullish opening include: Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold. Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond. In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Xrp - New all time highs will come next!Xrp - CRYPTO:XRPUSD - is preparing for new all time highs: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Xrp has clearly been trading sideways for the past 8 years. Meanwhile, market structure is respected perfectly and it seems to be just a matter of time until Xrp will create new all time highs. With the recent bullish break and retest, this scenario becomes even more likely. Levels to watch: $3.0 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
12
GOLD and broker candle sticks manipulationAdditional factors supporting gold’s bullish opening include: Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold. Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond. In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Additional factors supporting gold’s bullish opening include: Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold. Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond. In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025) 1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates) Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) . Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential: 4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0% The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) . Yield Spread: 4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26% The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage. 3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis). Drivers: Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD. BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP . 4. Carry Trade Directional Bias GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP. Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand. Risks: BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread. Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD. Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing. Key Data and Events US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD) Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51% Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) — Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.) DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support) Conclusion Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD. Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains. DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts. Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts. GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade . stay cautious #GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
by Shavyfxhub
1
A Harmonic Pattern Entry Into A Potential Continuation TradeI don't look at Bitcoin often but when answering a question for another trader this weekend I stumbled across an interesting opportunity. Higher timeframe we've recently broken and closed above a previous high, allowing me to project that price is likely to continue higher. We've already started to retracement in the form of a complex pullback and if you look carefully on the lower timeframe this complex pullback as also created a bullish bat pattern which could be used as an entry. Please leave any questions or comments below Akil
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025) 1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates) Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) . Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential: 4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0% The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) . Yield Spread: 4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26% The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage. 3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis). Drivers: Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD. BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP . 4. Carry Trade Directional Bias GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP. Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand. Risks: BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread. Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD. Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing. Key Data and Events US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD) Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51% Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) — Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.) DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support) Conclusion Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD. Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains. DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts. Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts. GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade . stay cautious #GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Long
by okako_trading
5