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Harmonic Patterns

live trade and break down 5k profits, 3500 targetGold price sticks to positive bias as sustained safe-haven buying offsets modest USD strength Gold price sticks to its bullish tone for the third consecutive day on Friday and trades close to its highest level since April 22 through the first half of the European session. Against the backdrop of trade-related uncertainties, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by afri-tradesource
GOLD GOLD ,the sudden rise in price from Asian session is driven by central bank purchase ,gold is heading to 3600 if 3400-3397 retest is successful . the high of today 3444 on supply roof structure from the 3500 all time high, will need correction into demand floor where we look to unlock next wave of buy at 3400-3397 with the hope that 3500 is retested. the dollar index 97.620 demand floor on retest bought and moved in the same direction with Gold by ignoring inverse correlation ,this price movement is reflecting fear, geopolitical tension ,economic instability and inflation concern in the global market. the yesterday economic data print will be watched by feds PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. The Fed will use the datas as reinforcing evidence for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. #gold
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
USDJPY Over the past year, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar. Interest Rate Decisions Federal Reserve (Fed): The Fed’s policy rate remains at 4.25–4.50%, with markets increasingly expecting a rate cut as US inflation data cools and labor market data softens. Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ’s short-term policy rate is set at 0.5% (unchanged since March 2025), and the central bank continues a cautious approach, with no recent hikes or major policy shifts. 10-Year Government Bond Yields US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Recently declined to around 4.348% after softer US inflation data, reflecting expectations of Fed easing. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield: Stands at approximately 1.45%, having edged lower amid strong demand at recent bond auctions and the BoJ’s continued yield curve control. Implications for USDJPY The narrowing yield differential between US and Japanese 10-year bonds (now roughly 2.93%) is a key driver of the yen’s recent strength against the dollar. As US yields fall on expectations of Fed rate cuts, the appeal of the dollar over the yen diminishes, supporting further yen appreciation. The BoJ remains cautious, but with inflation in Japan still below target and growth subdued, there is little pressure for rate hikes, keeping the policy gap wide but shrinking as the Fed pivots dovish. Conclusion The USDJPY has weakened as US yields fall and the Fed signals a dovish tilt, while the BoJ holds steady. The pair is likely to remain under pressure if US yields continue to decline and the Fed moves closer to rate cuts, narrowing the US-Japan yield gap further. #USDJPY
Short
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data Key CPI Figures (May 2025) Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast). Fed’s Likely Interpretation Cooling Inflation Momentum: The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed. Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks. Tariff Impact Delayed: The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory. Labor Market Resilience: Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts. Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks. Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears. What’s Next? June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening. Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data Key Data Points PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Subdued Producer Inflation Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains. Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025. 2. Labor Market Softening Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023. Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP). 3. Policy Outlook September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens. Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given: Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets. DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Conclusion The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts. Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent. Summary The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. #gold
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
by okako_trading
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data Key CPI Figures (May 2025) Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast). Fed’s Likely Interpretation Cooling Inflation Momentum: The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed. Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks. Tariff Impact Delayed: The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory. Labor Market Resilience: Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts. Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks. Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears. What’s Next? June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening. Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data Key Data Points PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Subdued Producer Inflation Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains. Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025. 2. Labor Market Softening Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023. Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP). 3. Policy Outlook September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens. Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given: Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025. Market Reactions Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets. DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Conclusion The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts. Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent. Summary The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. #gold
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD GOLD .the current london time of gold trading session is locked at 3376-3374.we hope they unlock the price at 3350-3355 to enable 3427-3430 and higher lock zone another unlock key at 3367 will be watched if it has the potential for upswing and unlock,otherwise it gets locked into 3350-3355 unlock zone . from technical perspective unlock of 3323 yesterday will need a cool off at 3350-3355 to unlock another long position. the dollar index got unlock key at 98.263 descending trendline upholding long position. the 2hr and 1hr aligns with the structure.(lock /unlock) lets watch and see what she does. stay cautious
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Microsoft - This might be the ultimate breakout!Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT - will break the all time high: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) If you wonder why Microsoft has been rallying +15% this month, market structure will give you an answer. In fact, the recent bullish break and retest was totally expected, and if we take into account the recent quite strong bullish behaviour, an all time high breakout will follow soon. Levels to watch: $450 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
4
The altcoin cycle is loading… don’t get caught chasing!Why It Might Be a Good Time to Start Building Your Nest Now 🥚🐣💸 If history’s taught us anything, it’s this: the best opportunities usually show up before everyone’s talking about them. 📈 Every cycle, whether it’s stocks, crypto, or real estate, rewards the people who start stacking early, not the ones waiting for a perfect moment (spoiler: it rarely comes). A lot of people sit on the sidelines thinking they’ll “jump in later” … but by the time it feels safe, the big moves have usually already happened. 👀💨 Of course, this isn’t financial advice, just something to think about. 🤝 The ones who build their nest patiently, stay consistent, and prepare ahead of time tend to be the ones who win when the cycle really kicks off. 🛠️ Moral of the story: Start now, stay ready. Your future self will thank you. 🚀🫡
Long
by Trade-Journal
GOLD Relationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields 1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY) Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY). When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down. Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts. 2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive. However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields. 3. Gold and Bond Prices Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall. Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge. Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation . 4. Macro and Market Drivers Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields. Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support. Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term. Conclusion Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields. #gold #dollar
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Relationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields 1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY) Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY). When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down. Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts. 2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive. However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields. 3. Gold and Bond Prices Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall. Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge. Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation . 4. Macro and Market Drivers Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields. Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support. Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term. Conclusion Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields. #gold #dollar
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Relationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields 1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY) Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY). When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down. Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts. 2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive. However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields. 3. Gold and Bond Prices Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall. Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge. Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation . 4. Macro and Market Drivers Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields. Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support. Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term. Conclusion Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields. #gold #dollar
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
EUR/JPY – The Crash Is Loading...Retail just got wiped out again. Look at this chart — liquidity was taken above the previous highs, exactly where retail traders expected a breakout. But here’s the truth: This was never a breakout — it was smart money manipulation. The market created fake momentum to trap buyers, then swept their stop losses and filled institutional sell orders at premium pricing. Now the path is set: Liquidity is taken ✅ No strong continuation after breakout ❌ Perfect rejection candle forming 🧠 Price is likely to retrace all the way to the 162.00 demand zone and even deeper ⚔️ Why You Need to Act Now: This is a textbook high risk-reward opportunity: Entry after liquidity sweep SL tight above the wick Massive downside room Smart money already positioned — you should be too 💡 Remember: The market doesn’t move by luck — it moves by manipulation. Those who understand that… capitalize on it.
Short
by Calugareanu_Alexandru