Get started

Harmonic Patterns

EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate Current Rate: About 1.1525 Government Bond Yields U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.328% Eurozone 10-Year Government Bond Yield: Last reported at 2.686% Economic Data Reports for Today U.S. Data: 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 82K -33K 1:30pm USD Advance GDP q/q 2.4% -0.5% USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 2.3% 3.8% 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.3% 1.8% 3:30pm CAD BOC Press Conference USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.2M 7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50% USD FOMC Statement 7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference Market Focus Today: The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Eurozone Data: GDP Growth (Q2): Eurostat reports second-quarter growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 1.4% year-on-year (YoY). Germany and Italy contracted by 0.1% QoQ, France rose 0.3%, and Spain outperformed at 0.7%. Outlook: The Eurozone economy faces headwinds from new U.S. tariffs and tepid industrial output, though Q2 was somewhat better than feared. Current Interest Rates Area Main Rate (July 2025) Policy Outlook U.S. 4.25% – 4.50% Fed expected to hold steady EU 2.15% (main refi rate) ECB in data-dependent pause 2.00% (deposit rate) U.S.: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range at today's FOMC meeting, reflecting a cautious approach in light of current growth and inflation figures. Eurozone: The ECB last held its main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.00% as of the July 24, 2025 meeting, emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven stance. Key Takeaways EUR/USD is subdued just above 1.15 as the euro weakens on modest Eurozone growth and broad dollar strength ahead of the Fed. 10-year yields remain elevated in both regions, reflecting stable but cautious outlooks. Today’s U.S. and ECB meetings/data are critical: Markets are watching for central bank reactions to new economic data and the ongoing effects of tariffs and global uncertainty. This overview captures the most significant developments relevant to currency, rates, bonds, and economic trends for July 30, 2025. #EURUSD #DOLLAR #EURO
by Shavyfxhub
DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of these currencies versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold), and financial markets. It is calculated as a geometric mean of the exchange rates weighted by each currency's significance in U.S. trade. #DXY In essence, the DXY is a crucial tool to assess how the U.S. dollar is performing against its major trade partners’ currencies, helping market participants make informed decisions in foreign exchange and broader financial markets.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
EURAUD THE CURRENT PRICEACTION OF EURAUD IS WATCHED. EU10Y=2.689% ECB RATE 2.0% AU10Y= 4.348% RBA RATE =3.85% RATE AND BOND YIELD DIFFERENTIAL FAVOR AUD . The recent fluctuations in the EUR/AUD exchange rate are primarily driven by factors including: Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Differentials: Decisions and outlooks from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) strongly impact EUR/AUD. Hawkish (tightening) or dovish (easing) policy stances influence demand for each currency, affecting the exchange rate. For example, higher interest rates or hawkish tones usually strengthen a currency, while easing weakens it. Differences in inflation rates and inflation expectations also play a part, as central banks adjust rates accordingly. Economic Indicators and Growth Outlooks: Economic performance disparities between the Eurozone and Australia—such as GDP growth, trade balances, and industrial versus commodity exports—drive currency strength or weakness. The Eurozone’s economy is more industrial and technological, while Australia's economy is strongly commodity-driven, especially by prices of iron ore and gold. Changes in global commodity prices or demand can cause the AUD to fluctuate vs the EUR. Commodity Prices, Especially Gold: Since Australia is a major gold producer, AUD tends to correlate positively with gold prices. Rising gold prices support AUD strength, which may lower EUR/AUD rates, and vice versa. Global Risk Sentiment and Geopolitical Events: Global market sentiment—whether investors seek risk or safe-haven assets—affects both currencies. The Euro and AUD react differently to geopolitical developments and trade tensions. For instance, increased risk appetite can strengthen AUD vs EUR and vice versa depending on circumstances. In summary, the recent EUR/AUD fluctuations reflect the interplay of ECB and RBA policies, divergent economic data between Europe and Australia, commodity price movements (notably gold), and shifting global risk sentiment. This explains why EUR/AUD rates move as they do: when the Eurozone outlook improves or ECB signals tightening while Australian commodity prices weaken or RBA signals easing, EUR tends to strengthen against AUD, and the pair rises. Conversely, stronger Australian growth, rising commodity prices, or hawkish RBA moves can push the pair lower. #EURAUD
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPYBank of Japan (BOJ) — July 28, 2025: Latest Overview Policy Rate and Recent Moves Short-term policy rate: Remains at 0.5%, the highest since 2008. Decision timing: This rate was set in January 2025 (up from 0.25%) and has been maintained Policy Outlook and Economic Backdrop Inflation: Tokyo's core CPI is running above the BOJ’s 2% target (2.9% YoY in July), primarily due to external price pressures like energy and currency movements, not strong domestic demand. Growth trends: The BOJ has trimmed its growth outlook, noting headwinds from higher U.S. tariffs and yen weakness, but still expects a moderate recovery if global trade remains stable. Bond Purchases: The BOJ is scaling back its massive holdings of Japanese government bonds—targeting a 400 billion yen quarterly reduction through March 2026, then lowering to 200 billion yen in subsequent quarters. Potential rate path: Market consensus and BOJ commentary indicate a possible hike to at least 0.75% by year-end 2025 if above-target inflation persists and downside global risks do not intensify. Key Drivers and Central Bank Signals U.S.-Japan trade: The new trade pact has reduced some uncertainties, supporting the possibility of policy tightening if inflation and yen trends remain stable. Inflation’s nature: The BOJ stresses that any additional rate hikes will depend on seeing sustained, demand-driven price increases and wages, rather than just external cost pressures. Governor Ueda’s message: The BOJ is maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach, prioritizing stability and careful evaluation of global and domestic risk factors. Quick Fact Table Indicator Latest (July 2025) BOJ’s Signal Policy Rate 0.5% Steady for now; another hike possible in 2025 Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 2.9% Sustainable above-target inflation Next Meeting July 30–31 Hawkish bias; likely no immediate change Bonds (JGB reduction) -400B yen/Q Gradual unwinding through March 2026 Rate Outlook Stable, with upside Hike to 0.75% possible by year-end if justified Summary: The BOJ remains in a cautious, data-driven policy stance at 0.5% as of late July 2025, with inflation still above target and moderate growth. The central bank is slowly reducing bond purchases and may raise rates again by year-end if the current economic trends persist, but no change is expected at the imminent July meeting. European Central Bank (ECB) — July 2025: Latest Policy and Economic Update Key Interest Rates and Current Stance Deposit Facility Rate: 2.00% Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) Rate: 2.15% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 2.40% These rates were set after a 25 basis point cut in early June 2025 and have now been held steady as of the ECB’s July 24, 2025 meeting. Monetary Policy Context Policy Pause: The ECB ended a year-long easing cycle which saw rates cut from 4% to 2%. The current pause reflects the ECB’s “wait-and-see” approach as inflation has now stabilized at its 2% target and global trade tensions—especially over U.S. tariffs—add significant uncertainty. No Commitments: The Governing Council is explicitly not pre-committing to any future rate path, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance. Asset Purchases: The ECB’s asset purchase programme (APP) and the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are being reduced gradually, with no reinvestment of maturing securities. Inflation and Economic Outlook Inflation: Now at 2% (its target). The ECB expects it to remain near target for the period ahead. Wage growth continues but is slowing, and underlying price pressures are easing. Ecoomic Growth: The eurozone economy grew more strongly than expected in early 2025, but trade uncertainty and a stronger euro are holding back business investment and exports. Higher government spending, especially on defense and infrastructure, is expected to support growth over the medium term. Loans and Credit: Borrowing costs are at their lowest since late 2022. Households are benefiting from strong labor markets and growing wages, but banks are cautious in their lending due to uncertainty and global trade tensions. Risks and Forward Guidance The ECB is focused on safeguarding price stability amid exceptional uncertainty due to global trade disputes and policy risks. There is no forward guidance for the next rate change. Markets are pricing only one possible additional cut for 2025, and a potential return to tightening in late 2026 if inflation stays below target. Summary Table: ECB at a Glance (July 2025) Policy Rate 2.15% Deposit Rate 2.00% Marginal Lending 2.40% Inflation (Jun 25) 2% (target achieved) GDP Growth (2025) 0.9% (projected) Policy bias Cautious, data-dependent pause The ECB’s current stance is one of caution, monitoring the effects of prior easing and global trade risks while inflation stabilizes at target. No further near-term cuts are planned unless significant data surprises emerge. The approach is flexible, with decisions made meeting-by-meeting in response to evolving economic and financial conditions.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
XRPThe primary regulatory catalyst boosting XRP's bullish outlook in 2025 is the resolution of Ripple Labs' long-standing lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In March 2025, Ripple settled the case by agreeing to pay a $50 million fine, and crucially, it was clarified that XRP is not considered a security in the context of secondary market sales. This settlement removed years of significant regulatory uncertainty that had suppressed XRP's price and led exchanges to delist XRP. Following this resolution, major U.S. exchanges reinstated XRP trading, and institutional confidence in XRP surged, unlocking large-scale adoption and market participation by regulated investors. Another key regulatory development providing bullish momentum is the passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. House of Representatives, approved around mid-July 2025. This legislation establishes a clearer federal framework for stablecoins and digital assets like Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin, further reducing regulatory risks and positioning XRP for broader mainstream utility and adoption. In summary, the decisive legal settlement with the SEC and U.S. legislative progress (notably the GENIUS Act) have greatly clarified XRP's regulatory status, providing a green light for institutional entry through regulated channels such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The proliferation of XRP ETFs—including the approved ProShares XRP Futures ETF—amplifies this effect, enabling easier institutional and retail investment and fueling bullish price momentum XRP Real-Life Use Cases in Finance XRP REAL LIFE APPLICATION IN THE ECOSYSTEM. 1. Cross-Border Payments XRP’s core financial use case is to act as a bridge for cross-border payments. Traditional international money transfers often take days and involve high fees due to intermediary banks (the SWIFT system). With XRP, financial institutions can instantly convert and transfer value across borders. Typical settlement times are 3–5 seconds, with transaction costs usually less than a cent. Numerous global banks and remittance providers have adopted XRP and the RippleNet system to cut costs and provide real-time international payment services. 2. On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) & Liquidity Bridging Banks and payment providers use XRP to manage liquidity. With XRP as a bridge currency, financial institutions do not need to pre-fund nostro accounts in multiple countries. Instead, they can source liquidity ‘on demand’ using XRP, freeing capital and reducing operational costs. On-demand liquidity flow improves cash efficiency and speeds settlements between a wide variety of global fiat currencies. 3. Micropayments Due to low fees and fast settlement, XRP is suitable for micropayments. This enables new use cases in digital content (e.g., pay-per-article, tipping creators) and gaming, where sending tiny amounts is otherwise unfeasible. Such micropayment abilities open the door to innovative business models in finance and online services. 4. Tokenization and DeFi The XRP Ledger supports tokenization of financial assets and decentralized finance (DeFi) use cases. Financial firms can issue stablecoins or tokenized assets (including stocks, bonds, or other real-world assets) on-chain, fostering new kinds of investment products, automated trading, and settlement. XRP’s ledger powers “sector-based index funds,” asset baskets, and other financial instruments, expanding real-world utility within decentralized finance. 5. Remittances Remittance companies use XRP to offer faster and cheaper international transfers. This is particularly valuable for migrant workers sending money home, reducing transaction times from days to seconds and cutting fees, thereby increasing the amount recipients receive. 6. Banking and Trade Finance Some banks and trade finance platforms use XRP to improve operational efficiency. By digitizing trade documentation and facilitating instant payments, XRP is helping modernize the traditionally slow and paperwork-heavy trade finance sector. 7. Collateral & Trading XRP can be used as collateral in digital asset trading and arbitrage. Traders and financial institutions leverage XRP for high-speed transfers between exchanges, using its liquidity to seize arbitrage opportunities and service margin calls rapidly. Countries adopting XRP for real-life payments, especially cross-border transactions, include several key nations across Asia, the Middle East, and beyond. Here are some notable examples of countries actively integrating XRP into their financial systems and payment infrastructures as of 2025: Japan: A pioneer in cryptocurrency adoption, Japan has multiple banks partnered with Ripple using XRP to streamline cross-border payments. The Bank of Japan and major institutions like SBI Holdings support XRP integration to provide faster, lower-cost international transactions across Asian markets. United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE is proactively integrating blockchain technology, including XRP, with banks such as Zand Bank and fintech firms using Ripple’s platform for faster cross-border payments. Dubai’s financial initiatives leverage XRP to boost transaction efficiency within and beyond the region. South Korea: Known for its vibrant tech ecosystem and supportive crypto regulations, South Korea has seen local banks experimenting with XRP to reduce international payment costs and increase speed, making it part of the broader fintech innovation landscape. Mexico: Financial institutions in Mexico use XRP to improve remittances, especially those coming from the U.S., reducing processing time and fees significantly. India: Given its large remittance market and fintech growth, India is exploring the use of XRP to address the need for low-cost, quick international payments. Singapore: XRP adoption is growing here, with increasing numbers of users and integration of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD into payments. United States: Some American banks and financial institutions are starting to integrate XRP for international payments, signaling growing institutional interest. Canada: Banks like Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) and remittance services use Ripple technology, including XRP, to enable faster cross-border money transfers. Brazil: Various financial players collaborate with Ripple to modernize the country’s payment infrastructure using XRP. United Kingdom: Institutions and fintech firms in the UK leverage Ripple’s technology for faster, cheaper international transactions. Thailand and Sweden: Banks in these countries are partnering with Ripple to enhance their cross-border payment capabilities by leveraging XRP. Egypt: Major banks are collaborating with Ripple to improve payment efficiency, including through XRP-based solutions. In essence: XRP directly addresses major friction points in global finance by cutting costs, increasing speed, and providing new ways for banks, companies, and individuals to move and manage money—all with increasing real-world adoption in cross-border payments, liquidity management, and digital asset innovation.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD.JULY 29TH Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish will JOLTS which measures the Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry; JOLTS Job Openings CB Consumer Confidence forecast 95.9 previous 93.0 .market will watch for data report for clear directional bias . wednesday 30th Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer price index which Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast or below will be watched for clear directional bias . this data are Frequency Released quarterly, about 25 days after the quarter ends; and the next report will be on Oct 30, 2025 Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate of 2% Aud CPI q/q forecast 0.8% previous 0.9% AUD CPI y/y forecast 2.1% previous 2.1% AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q forecast 0.7% previous 0.7% USD 1:15pm 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 82K previous -33K Advance GDP q/q forecast 2.4% previous -0.5% Advance GDP Price Index q/q forecst 2.3% previous 3.8% Pending Home Sales m/m forecast 0.3% previous 1.8% USD Crude Oil Inventories-3.2M by 7pm USD Federal Funds Rate previous 4.50% 4.50% FOMC Statement 7:30pm FOMC Press Conference. watchout for federal fund rate data report and FOMC (federal open market committee) NOTE;TRADING ANAY INSTRUMENT IS 100% PROBABILTY ,ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL YOU,DONT EVER TRADE WITH ALL YOUR CAPITAL BECAUSE YOU MENTOR SAY BUY OR SELL. TRADING IS 100% PROBABILTY AND NO STRATEGY IS PERFECT. TRADE WITH CAUTION. WISH A HAPPY NEW WEEK. BYE.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Gold - The clear top formation!🪙Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) just created a top formation: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the past four months, Gold has overall been moving sideways. Following a previous blow-off rally of about +25%, this cycle is very similar to the 2008 bullish cycle. Bulls are starting to slow down which will most likely result in the creation of at least a short term top formation. 📝Levels to watch: $3.000 🙏🏻#LONGTERMVISION Philip - Swing Trader
TVC:GOLDShort
by SwingTraderPhilTV
10