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Harmonic Patterns

GOLD XAU/USD (Gold) and Its Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield, Bond Price, DXY, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), and Carry Trade 1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield / Bond Price Inverse Relationship with Real Yields: Gold typically moves inversely to real 10-year Treasury yields (nominal yield minus inflation). When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increases, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, falling or negative real yields support gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and safe haven. Bond Prices Move Oppositely to Yields: Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, rising bond prices (falling yields) tend to support gold prices, while falling bond prices (rising yields) can weigh on gold. Current Context: In mid-2025, 10-year yields have been relatively elevated but real yields remain low or negative due to inflation, supporting gold prices 2. Gold and DXY (US Dollar Index) Strong Negative Correlation: Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) usually move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. A weaker dollar boosts gold by making it cheaper internationally. Recent Trends: Trade tensions, US fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks have pressured the dollar, helping gold rally . The dollar weakness amid tariff escalations and debt worries has fueled gold’s uptrend toward resistance levels 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Gold UIP Concept: UIP suggests that currency exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials between countries, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. While UIP primarily applies to currencies, it indirectly affects gold since gold is priced in USD and influenced by US interest rates and inflation expectations. Implication for Gold: If US interest rates rise relative to other countries, the dollar tends to strengthen (UIP effect), pressuring gold. Conversely, if real rates fall or inflation expectations rise, gold benefits despite nominal rate changes. 4. Carry Trade and Gold Carry Trade Basics: Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies to invest in higher-yield assets. Gold itself does not yield interest, so it is not a direct carry trade instrument. However, the gold carry trade involves borrowing gold at low lease rates and investing proceeds in higher-yielding assets. Current Viability: Rising gold prices increase the cost of repurchasing borrowed gold, reducing carry trade profitability. Yet, negative or low real yields and persistent inflation fears maintain some interest in gold-related carry strategies. Indirect Influence: Carry trade flows in currencies and bonds affect the dollar and yields, which in turn influence gold prices. Summary Table Factor Relationship with Gold (XAU/USD) Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Inverse (via real yields) Higher real yields raise gold’s opportunity cost Bond Price Positive (inverse to yields) Rising bond prices lower yields, supporting gold US Dollar Index (DXY) Negative Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Indirect, via currency and rate expectations Rate differentials influence USD strength, impacting gold Carry Trade Indirect Currency and yield carry trades affect dollar and rates, influencing gold Current Market Context (June 2025) Gold is trading near $3,394 -3400 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar amid trade tensions and US fiscal concerns. Real US yields remain low/negative, maintaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite elevated nominal yields. Geopolitical risks and inflation fears continue to drive demand for gold as a hedge. Conclusion Gold’s price dynamics in 2025 are shaped by the interplay of real US interest rates, bond market movements, and the strength of the US dollar. While nominal 10-year yields have risen, low real yields and dollar weakness amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties support gold’s bullish trend. The carry trade and UIP frameworks influence the broader currency and interest rate environment, indirectly affecting gold’s appeal. #GOLD
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD Today’s economic data—ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (37K vs. 111K forecast) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 forecast)—signaled significant weakness in the U.S. labor market and service sector, prompting markets to price in higher odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Here’s how this impacts the Fed’s policy outlook and the US Dollar Index (DXY): Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Implications Labor Market Cooling: The ADP jobs miss and downward revision of April’s data suggest hiring momentum is stalling. Small businesses cut jobs, while larger firms reduced headcounts. Fed Chair Powell has emphasized maximum employment as a key mandate. Sustained weakness could push the Fed toward earlier rate cuts,its likely above 25bps. Services Sector Contraction: The ISM Services PMI fell into contraction (49.9), the first since December 2023, driven by tariff uncertainty and delayed business spending. However, persistent inflation pressures . This creates a policy dilemma: weak growth vs. sticky inflation. The Fed may delay cuts until inflation trends lower, but political pressure (Trump’s public criticism of Powell) adds urgency . Fed’s Balancing Act: The Fed is unlikely to act before Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If NFP confirms labor market softness, a July or September cut becomes likely. However, elevated wage growth (ADP reported 4.5% YoY pay gains) and ISM’s inflation spike could keep the Fed cautious . DXY Price Action Immediate Reaction: The dollar fell sharply post-data, with the DXY dropping 0.35% to 98.675 as traders priced in dovish Fed expectations . Near-Term Outlook: Bearish Bias: Continued weak data (especially a soft NFP on June 6) could push DXY toward 98.057 support, targeting the ascending trendline will be my focus to go long on trend demandfloor. Inflation Wildcard: Sticky services inflation (ISM Prices Paid) may limit dollar declines if markets doubt the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively . Summary of Key Levels and Scenarios Scenario Fed Reaction DXY Impact NFP Confirms Weakness Sept cut priced in Drop to 98.40–97.00 NFP Beats Expectations Delayed cuts (Dec 2025+) Rebound toward 99.50–100 Inflation Persists Hawkish hold, delayed easing Range-bound near 99.00 Conclusion Today’s data tilts the Fed toward a dovish pivot, but conflicting signals (soft jobs vs. stubborn inflation) inject uncertainty. The dollar’s trajectory now hinges on Friday’s NFP report, which will either cement rate-cut bets or revive stagflation fears. Traders should brace for volatility, with DXY likely testing 98.00 if NFP misses expectations. #gold #dollar
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Nasdaq - The final bullrun breakout!Nasdaq - TVC:NDQ - might break above all structure: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) It is quite incredible how volatile stocks have been lately, especially considering that fact that the Nasdaq is about to create new all time highs again. Consequently, we are about to witness a significant structure breakout, which would ultimately lead to another rally of about +30%. Levels to watch: $21.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
20
GOLD If the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report comes in significantly below the forecast—for example, an actual figure of 37,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 111,000—the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to interpret this as a sign of weakening labor market conditions. How the Fed May React: Increased Likelihood of Rate Cuts: A weaker-than-expected ADP report suggests slower job growth and potentially softer economic momentum. This would increase the probability that the Fed will consider cutting interest rates or delaying further rate hikes to support the economy. Monetary Policy Shift Toward Easing: The Fed’s dual mandate includes maximum employment and price stability. Signs of labor market weakness could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, signaling potential rate cuts or more accommodative policies to stimulate growth. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Such a disappointing jobs figure typically leads to a weaker US dollar as markets price in easier monetary policy. It may also boost risk assets like equities and gold due to lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity. Cautious Fed Communication: While the Fed may acknowledge the weaker data, officials often emphasize looking at a broad range of economic indicators rather than a single report. They may wait for confirmation from the upcoming official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before making decisive policy changes. Summary Below-forecast ADP jobs data (37k vs 111k forecast) signals labor market softness. Fed likely to lean toward rate cuts or hold to support growth. Market reaction: USD weakness, potential equity and gold gains. Fed will monitor subsequent data, especially the official NFP report, before adjusting policy significantly. #gold
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Short
by okako_trading
DOLLAR INDEXCorrelation Between DXY, Bond Yields, and Bond Prices 1. Bond Prices and Bond Yields: Inverse Relationship Bond prices and bond yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall; when bond prices fall, yields rise. This happens because bonds pay fixed coupons; if market interest rates rise, existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, pushing their prices down and yields up. 2. DXY and 10-Year Treasury Yield: Generally Positive Correlation The US Dollar Index (DXY) and the US 10-year Treasury yield typically move in the same direction. When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and vice versa. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. Historically, this correlation has been strong, with a rolling correlation averaging around 44.5% and recently rising to about 75% in early 2025. However, this relationship can break down temporarily due to shifts in market sentiment or safe-haven flows. For example, in mid-2025, the correlation briefly turned negative amid changing investor preferences. 3. DXY and Bond Prices: Indirect Inverse Correlation Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, and yields and DXY are positively correlated, DXY tends to move inversely to bond prices. Rising bond prices (falling yields) often coincide with dollar weakness, while falling bond prices (rising yields) support dollar strength. 4. Interest Rates and Their Role Central bank interest rates influence bond yields and the dollar. Rate hikes generally push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, while rate cuts do the opposite. Interest rate expectations are a key driver behind the bond yield-DXY relationship. Summary Table Relationship Direction/Correlation Explanation Bond Price ↔ Bond Yield Inverse Fixed coupon bonds lose value when rates rise 10-Year Yield ↔ DXY Positive (usually) Higher yields attract capital, boosting USD Bond Price ↔ DXY Inverse (indirect) Bond prices up → yields down → USD weakens Interest Rates ↔ Yield & DXY Positive Rate hikes raise yields and strengthen USD Conclusion The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally rises with increasing 10-year Treasury yields because higher yields attract investment flows into US assets, boosting demand for the dollar. Conversely, bond prices move inversely to yields, so rising bond prices tend to coincide with dollar weakness. While this relationship is strong historically, it can fluctuate due to market sentiment, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical factors. #DOLLAR #DXY
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSDGBP/USD Analysis: June 1–10, 2025 Key Drivers: Economic Data, Bond Yields, Interest Rates, and Carry Trade Dynamics 1. Upcoming Economic Data (June 1–10) US Data: June 4;1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change June 6: Nonfarm Payrolls (May) – Strong jobs growth (>200k) could revive USD strength. June 6: Average Hourly Earnings – Wage growth impacts Fed policy expectations. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differential UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (as of May 21, 2025) . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.46% (as of June 2, 2025) . 4.77% (UK)−4.46% (US)=+0.31% The UK’s higher bond yield provides a modest carry advantage for GBP. Policy Rates: BoE Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps in May 2025) . Fed Rate: 4.25–4.50% (steady since May 2025). Rate Differential: 4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0% 3. Carry Trade Advantage Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in GBP assets (higher bond yields), exploiting the +0.31% yield spread. Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish for GBP, supported by bond yield spreads but tempered by BoE’s dovish stance. Risks: Weak UK PMI/GDP data could narrow yield spreads. Strong US NFP may widen the policy rate gap, boosting USD. Bullish Catalysts: UK CPI >3.5% delays BoE cuts. Weak US jobs data (<150k) weakens USD. Bearish Catalysts: BoE signals further cuts. Strong US wage growth (>0.4% MoM). Summary Table Metric UK (GBP) US (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.46% Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50% Yield Spread +0.31% (GBP over USD) — Key Data Focus CPI, GDP, PMIs NFP, Wage Growth Carry Trade Implication Modest GBP advantage USD strength on policy rate Conclusion GBP/USD’s near-term direction hinges on UK inflation and US jobs data. The UK’s higher bond yields offer a carry trade edge, but BoE dovishness and USD resilience may cap gains. #GBPUSD#
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield Gold and 10-year Treasury yields generally exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When bond yields rise, gold prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This is primarily because higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not pay interest or dividends. Investors prefer bonds when yields rise, reducing gold demand. However, the key driver for gold is real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation). Even if nominal yields rise, if inflation rises faster, real yields can remain low or negative, which supports gold prices. Historical data shows gold often rises during periods of falling real yields, even if nominal yields fluctuate. For example, gold surged in the 1970s despite rising nominal rates due to high inflation and negative real yields. 2. Gold and Dollar Index (DXY) Gold and the US dollar index (DXY) usually have an inverse relationship. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally. However, during times of geopolitical uncertainty or market stress, both gold and the dollar can rise together as safe havens. 3. Interest Rates and Gold Central bank interest rates influence bond yields and the dollar, indirectly affecting gold. Rising interest rates tend to push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, both of which typically pressure gold prices. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts or dovish monetary policy lower yields and weaken the dollar, supporting gold. The real interest rate is the most important factor: low or negative real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting its appeal. 4. Summary of Interactions Factor Relationship with Gold Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Inverse Higher yields raise opportunity cost, reducing gold demand Real Interest Rate Inverse Negative or low real rates support gold Dollar Index (DXY) Inverse Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally Nominal Interest Rate Inverse Higher rates strengthen dollar and yields, pressuring gold Conclusion Gold prices are strongly influenced by the interplay of real interest rates, bond yields, and the US dollar. Rising nominal yields and a strong dollar generally weigh on gold, but if inflation outpaces yields, resulting in low or negative real rates, gold remains attractive as a hedge. This dynamic explains gold’s resilience despite fluctuating bond yields and dollar strength in 2025.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Ethereum - The most important analysis for 2025!Ethereum - CRYPTO:ETHUSD - is clearly shifting bullish: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) After four years of trading, Ethereum is now sitting at the exact same level compared to mid 2021. However, Ethereum has been creating a significant triangle pattern and with the recent bullish price action, a breakout becomes more and more likely. Then, the sky is the limit. Levels to watch: $4.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
10
EURAUD1. 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differentials Eurozone 10-Year Yield: ~3.2% (stable amid ECB’s cautious rate policy). Australia 10-Year Yield: ~4.1% (higher due to RBA’s inflation focus). Yield Spread: 4.1% (AUD)−3.2% (EUR)=+0.9% Australia’s yield advantage supports AUD through carry trades. Policy Rate Differential: ECB Rate: 3.75% (cut by 25bps in June 2025). RBA Rate: 4.35% (unchanged since late 2024). Spread: +0.6% favoring AUD. 2. Carry Trade and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Carry Trade Bias: Investors borrow EUR (lower rate) to invest in AUD (higher rate), supporting AUD demand. UIP Implications: According to UIP, AUD should depreciate to offset its yield advantage. However, persistent AUD strength (e.g., EUR/AUD near 1.75–1.77) suggests deviations due to risk appetite and commodity-driven AUD demand. 3. Upcoming Economic Data (June 1–5) Date Event Currency Impact June 2 Eurozone CPI (May) Higher inflation (>2.5%) could delay ECB cuts, boosting EUR. June 3 AU Retail Sales (Apr) Strong sales (>0.5% MoM) may lift AUD. June 4 Eurozone Unemployment Rate Rise above 6.5% pressures EUR. June 5 AU Trade Balance (Apr) Surplus (>A$10B) supports AUD via export optimism. Bearish Catalysts: Wider AU-EU yield spreads and RBA’s hawkish stance. Strong AU data (retail sales, trade balance). Bullish Catalysts: ECB inflation surprises or delayed rate cuts. Risk-off sentiment weakening AUD (commodity-linked). Summary Table Factor Eurozone (EUR) Australia (AUD) 10-Year Yield 3.2% 4.1% Policy Rate 3.75% 4.35% Yield Spread +0.9% (AUD over EUR) — Key Data CPI, Unemployment Retail Sales, Trade Balance Carry Trade Bias Neutral-to-Bearish for EUR Bullish for AUD #EURAUD
by Shavyfxhub
We’re cooking this week—7X wins on Monday and 7X on Tuesday!If you took those trades, congratulations! If you missed them because you were busy, stuck in a 9–5, or just didn’t catch the setup—don’t worry. There are always more opportunities ahead. Here’s the video breakdown I promised. If you're interested in learning how to trade like this, feel free to reach out. Wondering when the next setup will be? We're talking continuation longs and the like. It’s coming right after this video. I probably won’t have time to post tomorrow, so I’ll also share the key levels I’m watching below. Quick reminder: There are rules to this game. Like anything in life, consistent results come from consistent action. In trading, that looks like: Waiting for your confirmation Always setting your stop loss Pre-setting your take profit (if possible) De-risking as soon as appropriate Avoiding greed when in profit Avoiding fear when in loss Stay disciplined. Watch this space for more
Long
by Trade-Journal
GBPUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Long
by okako_trading
DOLLAR INDEXRelationship Between the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rates, and Carry Trade 1. Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-Year Bond Yield The DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield generally have a direct (positive) relationship: When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen. When yields fall, the dollar usually weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US dollar and pushing up its value. However, this relationship is not perfect and can be influenced by other factors like economic data, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy expectations. 2. Interest Rates and Their Impact Interest rates set by central banks (e.g., Fed funds rate) influence bond yields and currency values. Higher interest rates generally lead to higher bond yields, attracting capital inflows and strengthening the currency (USD). Conversely, lower rates tend to weaken the currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. The interest rate differential between countries is crucial: it reflects the relative attractiveness of holding one currency over another, driving capital flows and currency movements. 3. Carry Trade and Its Role The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher yields to earn the interest rate differential. For example, investors may borrow in Japanese yen (low rates) and invest in US dollars (higher rates), buying US bonds or assets. This strategy increases demand for the higher-yielding currency (USD), pushing up its value and often correlating with rising bond yields in that country. Carry trades are typically based on short-term interest rate differentials, but recent research indicates that the entire yield curve (including long-term yields) also affects currency returns and carry trade profitability. The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) theory suggests carry trade returns should be zero after adjusting for exchange rate changes, but empirically, carry trades have yielded excess returns, partly due to risk premia and market inefficiencies. what is UIP??? Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental economic theory that relates the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries to the expected change in their currency exchange rates over the same period. It asserts that the expected depreciation or appreciation of a currency will offset the interest rate differential, eliminating the possibility of arbitrage profits from borrowing in one currency and investing in another without hedging exchange rate risk. Key Points about UIP: Interest Rate Differential Equals Expected Exchange Rate Change: The difference between the interest rates of two countries should equal the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies. For example, if Country A has a higher interest rate than Country B, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to Country B’s currency by approximately the interest rate difference. No Arbitrage Condition Without Hedging: Unlike covered interest rate parity (which uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk), UIP assumes investors do not hedge their currency exposure. Therefore, the expected spot exchange rate at the end of the investment horizon adjusts to offset potential gains from interest rate differences. Implication: If a country offers higher interest rates, its currency is expected to depreciate to prevent riskless profit opportunities. This reflects foreign exchange market equilibrium. Relation to Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): UIP is connected to the law of one price, which states that identical goods should cost the same globally when prices are expressed in a common currency. Similarly, UIP ensures that returns on investments in different currencies are equalized once exchange rate changes are considered. Practical Use: UIP helps explain and forecast currency movements based on interest rate differentials but is often violated in the short term due to market imperfections, risk premiums, and investor behavior. In summary, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity states that the expected change in exchange rates between two currencies offsets the interest rate differential, so investors earn the same return regardless of the currency in which they invest, assuming no hedging of currency risk. 4. Bond Prices and Interest Rates Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship: When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. This dynamic affects currency values indirectly, as falling bond prices (rising yields) attract capital inflows, strengthening the currency and the DXY. Summary Table Factor Relationship with USD / DXY Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Positive correlation Higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting USD Interest Rates Positive correlation Higher rates increase returns on USD assets Interest Rate Differential Drives carry trade and currency flows Larger spread favors higher-yielding currency Carry Trade Supports USD when borrowing low-rate currency and investing in USD Increases demand for USD and US bonds Bond Prices Inverse to yields; indirectly affects USD Falling bond prices (rising yields) strengthen USD Conclusion The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield and interest rates because higher yields and rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the dollar. The carry trade exploits interest rate differentials, further supporting the dollar when investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding US assets. Bond prices inversely relate to yields, and their fluctuations indirectly influence the dollar through these mechanisms. #DOLLAR #GOLD #
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub