Get started

Harmonic Patterns

Can we look for longs on XAUUSD? my MTF POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by okako_trading
DOLLAR INDEXThe relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-year US Treasury yield is generally positive but has shown signs of weakening and occasional breakdowns recently. Key Points: Typical Positive Correlation: Historically, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and when yields fall, the dollar weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. Conversely, lower yields reduce dollar appeal. Mechanism: The 10-year yield reflects investor expectations about inflation, economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy. Higher yields often signal stronger growth or inflation, supporting a stronger dollar due to higher real returns on US assets. Recent Weakening of Correlation: Since early 2025, this positive correlation has weakened significantly. Despite rising 10-year yields (around 4.4% to 4.5%), the DXY has hovered near the 98–99 range and even declined over 10% year-to-date. This divergence is attributed to: Investors re-evaluating the dollar’s reserve currency status and shifting capital to other markets (e.g., European equities). Outflows from US assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Asynchronous monetary policy cycles globally, with some central banks hiking or cutting rates at different paces than the Fed. Market Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows: In times of stress, the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven can be challenged, further complicating the yield-dollar relationship. Conclusion While the 10-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index usually move together, recent market dynamics have disrupted this pattern. Rising yields have not translated into a stronger dollar in 2025, reflecting broader shifts in investor sentiment, geopolitical risks, and global monetary policy divergence.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
USOIL WTIKey Offshore Oil and Gas Installations at Risk of Iranian Attack Based on recent escalations and Iran's retaliatory capabilities, the following offshore installations are most vulnerable: Strait of Hormuz Infrastructure Why at risk: A critical global chokepoint handling 21 million barrels of oil daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened closure if provoked. Potential targets: Tanker routes, underwater pipelines, and monitoring stations. Qatar’s North Field Gas Facilities Why at risk: Directly adjacent to Iran’s South Pars field (recently attacked by Israel). Shared reservoirs mean disruptions could cascade. Vulnerability: Iran could target Qatari platforms to amplify global gas shortages. Saudi/UAE Offshore Fields Key sites: Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya (world’s largest offshore oil field). UAE’s Upper Zakum oil field. Why at risk: Iran views Gulf states as Israeli allies; striking them would disrupt U.S.-aligned economies. Israeli Mediterranean Gas Rigs Leviathan and Tamar fields: Provide 90% of Israel’s electricity. Already targeted by Iranian proxies (e.g., Hezbollah rockets in 2023). Bahrain/Kuwait Offshore Facilities Strategic value: Proximity to Iran enables rapid drone/missile strikes. Past attacks (e.g., 2019 Aramco) demonstrate capability. Why These Targets? Retaliatory logic: Iran’s energy infrastructure (e.g., South Pars) was damaged by Israeli strikes. Targeting adversaries’ assets aligns with its "escalate to deter" strategy. Global leverage: Disrupting Hormuz or major fields could spike oil prices 30–50%, pressuring Western governments. Technical feasibility: Iran’s naval drones, cruise missiles, and mines can penetrate offshore defenses. Immediate Threats Target Risk Level Potential Impact Strait of Hormuz Critical Global oil prices surge; 20% of LNG shipments halted Qatar’s North Field High 10% of global LNG supply disrupted; Europe/Asia energy crisis Israeli Gas Rigs High Israel’s energy security crippled; regional conflict escalation Conclusion Iran’s most likely retaliation targets are offshore installations in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar, and Israeli Mediterranean fields, leveraging proximity and asymmetric tactics. Such attacks would aim to inflict maximum economic damage while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or NATO. Global energy markets face severe disruption if hostilities escalate further. A successful breakout above this descending trendline and resistance zone (near $74–$75) would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially opening the way for further upside toward $80 and $100 as next target. US crude inventories have declined recently, reducing oversupply fears and supporting prices. Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply increases are more modest. OPEC+ decisions to maintain production cuts or limit increases have also contributed to price support. Summary Oil prices are testing and potentially breaking out of a long-term descending trendline formed since mid-2022. breakout will be long buy hope that we see 80$ per barrel. #usoil #oil
GBEBROKERS:USOILLong
by Shavyfxhub
10 YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD JGB10Y1. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield and Price The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield is around 1.40% to 1.52% in mid-2025, recently easing slightly to about 1.40% on June 20, 2025. This yield level is significantly higher than the near-zero levels seen in previous years but remains low by global standards. The bond price for the 10-year JGB hovers near 99.6 to 100, reflecting the inverse relationship with yields (as yields rise, bond prices fall slightly). Japan’s bond yields have been rising steadily since 2022, reflecting market concerns about inflation, fiscal sustainability, and monetary policy shifts. 2. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Policy The official BoJ short-term policy rate is currently at 0.50%, up from negative territory (-0.10%) a year ago. The BoJ has maintained a very accommodative monetary policy stance but has started to allow some upward flexibility in long-term yields, including the 10-year JGB yield, moving away from strict yield curve control. The BoJ is also considering buying back some super-long government bonds to stabilize the market amid rising yields. 3. Relationship Between Bond Yields, Prices, and JPY Strength Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship: as yields rise (reflecting higher interest rates or inflation expectations), bond prices fall. JPY Strength is influenced by several factors related to bond yields and interest rates: Rising Japanese bond yields tend to support a stronger yen, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns. However, Japan’s yields remain much lower than those of other major economies (e.g., US 10-year yield ~4.4%), which limits yen appreciation. The BoJ’s accommodative policy and yield curve control have historically kept yields low, suppressing JPY strength relative to currencies like USD. Recent yield increases and policy shifts have led to some yen appreciation, but trade and geopolitical factors also play significant roles. The trade deficit narrowing and ongoing trade talks with the US may also impact the yen’s value. Conclusion Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen modestly to around 1.4%, reflecting gradual monetary policy normalization by the BoJ, which still maintains a very low short-term interest rate of 0.5%. This yield increase supports some yen strength by attracting capital inflows, although the yen remains sensitive to global yield differentials and trade dynamics. Bond prices have adjusted accordingly, declining slightly as yields rose. The BoJ’s interventions, including potential bond buybacks, aim to manage market volatility amid these shifts. JGB 10-Year vs. AU 10-Year Bond Yield Differential and Related Concepts 1. Current Yield Differential (June 2025) The Australia 10-Year Government Bond yield is approximately 4.33% to 4.32% (recently around 4.31%). The Japan 10-Year Government Bond (JGB) yield is about 1.40% to 1.52%, with recent figures near 1.40%. This results in a yield spread (Australia minus Japan) of roughly 278 to 365 basis points (2.78% to 3.65%), meaning Australian 10Y bonds yield significantly more than Japanese 10Y bonds. 2. Carry Trade and Yield Differential The carry trade involves borrowing in a low-yield currency (e.g., Japanese yen) and investing in a high-yield currency (e.g., Australian dollar) to profit from the interest rate differential. Given the large yield spread (~3%), investors can earn positive carry by borrowing JPY at low rates (~0.5%) and investing in AUD bonds yielding above 4%. However, carry trade profits depend on currency movements: if the AUD depreciates against the JPY, gains can be eroded or losses incurred. 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP theory states that the expected change in exchange rates offsets interest rate differentials, implying no arbitrage profits from carry trades. For example, if Australian yields are 3% higher than Japanese yields, the AUD is expected to depreciate approximately 3% versus the JPY over the investment horizon. Empirically, UIP often fails in the short term, allowing carry trade profits, but tends to hold over the long term. 4. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) CIP states that the forward exchange rate between two currencies should reflect the interest rate differential, eliminating arbitrage opportunities via forward contracts. In practice, CIP generally holds in developed markets, meaning investors can hedge currency risk using forward contracts, locking in the carry trade return minus hedging costs. Deviations from CIP can occur but are usually small and short-lived in major currency pairs like AUD/JPY. Summary Table Aspect Details Australia 10Y Yield ~4.31% Japan 10Y Yield ~1.40% Yield Spread (AU - JGB) ~2.78% to 3.65% (278–365 basis points) Carry Trade Borrow JPY at low rates, invest in AUD for yield pickup UIP Exchange rate expected to depreciate AUD by yield diff. CIP Forward rates reflect interest differential, hedging possible Implications for Investors and Markets The large yield differential incentivizes carry trades from JPY to AUD, contributing to capital flows and exchange rate dynamics. Short-term carry trade profits arise due to UIP deviations but are subject to currency risk. CIP arbitrage ensures that hedged carry trades have limited risk-free profits, but unhedged positions carry exchange rate exposure. Central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment can cause fluctuations in yields and exchange rates, impacting carry trade viability. #BOJ
TVC:JP10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
uraniumThe 10-year Treasury bond yield plays a significant role in the energy markets, including uranium, by influencing financing costs, investment decisions, and broader economic sentiment, which in turn affect uranium demand and pricing dynamics. Significance of the 10-Year Bond Yield in Uranium and Energy Markets: Benchmark for Financing Costs The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs for utilities and mining companies involved in uranium production and nuclear energy infrastructure. Higher yields increase the cost of capital, potentially delaying or raising the cost of new uranium mine developments and nuclear plant investments. Conversely, lower yields reduce financing costs, supporting expansion and production. Indicator of Economic and Inflation Expectations Rising 10-year yields often signal expectations of stronger economic growth and inflation, which can boost energy demand, including uranium for nuclear power generation. Declining yields typically reflect economic caution or slowdown, which may temper energy demand growth. Impact on Utility Procurement Behavior As uranium accounts for only about 5–10% of nuclear power generation costs, utilities prioritize securing supply to avoid operational disruptions, even at higher prices. When bond yields are stable or falling (indicating lower financing costs and economic uncertainty), utilities are more likely to lock in long-term uranium contracts aggressively, driving prices higher. Recent market conditions with the 10-year yield around 4.5% have coincided with utilities purchasing uranium in record quantities, pushing prices to 15-year highs. Geopolitical and Supply Risk Amplification The uranium market is sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially given that over half of global uranium supply and processing is controlled by countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rising bond yields amid geopolitical tensions can increase risk premiums on uranium prices as investors and utilities seek supply security. Investor Confidence and Capital Flows The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor confidence and risk appetite. Higher yields can attract capital away from commodities toward fixed income, potentially dampening speculative interest in uranium. Conversely, lower yields can boost commodity investment appeal as investors seek higher returns, supporting uranium prices. In essence, the 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial macro-financial gauge that indirectly shapes uranium market dynamics by affecting financing, demand expectations, and risk perceptions, thereby influencing uranium prices and investment decisions in the energy sector. Key Use Cases of Uranium Uranium serves critical functions across multiple sectors: Nuclear Energy Fuel for commercial reactors generating electricity which Provides 10% of global electricity with low carbon emissions Medical Isotopes ,the Production of radioisotopes (e.g., Technetium-99m) Enables cancer diagnostics and treatment through PET scans the Military/Defense use uranium for Nuclear weapons , naval propulsion systems and the Powering of submarines and aircraft carriers Space Exploration using Nuclear thermal propulsion with Potential fuel for long-duration space missions. Scientific Research and Geological dating and particle physics which Studies earth's age and fundamental particles all apply uranium . Demand drivers: 72 new nuclear reactors under construction globally (as of 2025) Medical isotope market growth (7.2% CAGR projected) Space agency investments in nuclear propulsion Investment Considerations Price volatility: Uranium spot prices impact producer profitability but long-term contracts provide stability Sector-specific risks: Regulatory constraints, waste management challenges, and geopolitical factors affect uranium investments Growth areas: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and radioisotope production represent emerging opportunities Conclusion: Uranium's value stems from its diverse applications in energy, medicine, defense, and science. While no dedicated "uranium bond" exists, the sector's performance is reflected in mining stocks and long-term contracts. The metal's fundamental importance in clean energy and advanced technology underpins its long-term market position.
TRADU:URANIUMLong
by Shavyfxhub
URANIUMThe 10-year Treasury bond yield plays a significant role in the energy markets, including uranium, by influencing financing costs, investment decisions, and broader economic sentiment, which in turn affect uranium demand and pricing dynamics. Significance of the 10-Year Bond Yield in Uranium and Energy Markets: Benchmark for Financing Costs The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs for utilities and mining companies involved in uranium production and nuclear energy infrastructure. Higher yields increase the cost of capital, potentially delaying or raising the cost of new uranium mine developments and nuclear plant investments. Conversely, lower yields reduce financing costs, supporting expansion and production. Indicator of Economic and Inflation Expectations Rising 10-year yields often signal expectations of stronger economic growth and inflation, which can boost energy demand, including uranium for nuclear power generation. Declining yields typically reflect economic caution or slowdown, which may temper energy demand growth. Impact on Utility Procurement Behavior As uranium accounts for only about 5–10% of nuclear power generation costs, utilities prioritize securing supply to avoid operational disruptions, even at higher prices. When bond yields are stable or falling (indicating lower financing costs and economic uncertainty), utilities are more likely to lock in long-term uranium contracts aggressively, driving prices higher. Recent market conditions with the 10-year yield around 4.5% have coincided with utilities purchasing uranium in record quantities, pushing prices to 15-year highs. Geopolitical and Supply Risk Amplification The uranium market is sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially given that over half of global uranium supply and processing is controlled by countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rising bond yields amid geopolitical tensions can increase risk premiums on uranium prices as investors and utilities seek supply security. Investor Confidence and Capital Flows The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor confidence and risk appetite. Higher yields can attract capital away from commodities toward fixed income, potentially dampening speculative interest in uranium. Conversely, lower yields can boost commodity investment appeal as investors seek higher returns, supporting uranium prices. In essence, the 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial macro-financial gauge that indirectly shapes uranium market dynamics by affecting financing, demand expectations, and risk perceptions, thereby influencing uranium prices and investment decisions in the energy sector. Key Use Cases of Uranium Uranium serves critical functions across multiple sectors: Nuclear Energy Fuel for commercial reactors generating electricity which Provides 10% of global electricity with low carbon emissions Medical Isotopes ,the Production of radioisotopes (e.g., Technetium-99m) Enables cancer diagnostics and treatment through PET scans the Military/Defense use uranium for Nuclear weapons , naval propulsion systems and the Powering of submarines and aircraft carriers Space Exploration using Nuclear thermal propulsion with Potential fuel for long-duration space missions. Scientific Research and Geological dating and particle physics which Studies earth's age and fundamental particles all apply uranium . Demand drivers: 72 new nuclear reactors under construction globally (as of 2025) Medical isotope market growth (7.2% CAGR projected) Space agency investments in nuclear propulsion Investment Considerations Price volatility: Uranium spot prices impact producer profitability but long-term contracts provide stability Sector-specific risks: Regulatory constraints, waste management challenges, and geopolitical factors affect uranium investments Growth areas: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and radioisotope production represent emerging opportunities Conclusion: Uranium's value stems from its diverse applications in energy, medicine, defense, and science. While no dedicated "uranium bond" exists, the sector's performance is reflected in mining stocks and long-term contracts. The metal's fundamental importance in clean energy and advanced technology underpins its long-term market position.
TRADU:URANIUMLong
by Shavyfxhub
Micron Technology - Starting the next +80% move!Micron Technology - NASDAQ:MU - perfectly respects structure: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Starting back in mid 2024, Micron Technology created the expected long term top formation. We witnessed a correction of about -60%, which ultimately resulted in a retest of a confluence of support. So far, Micron Technology rallied about +60%, with another +80% to follow soon. Levels to watch: $150, $180 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MULong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
11
Can we look for longs in XAUUSD? Here's a multi-timeframe POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by okako_trading
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Dogecoin - Don't forget the dog now!Dogecoin - CRYPTO:DOGEUSD - still remains quite bullish: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Basically during every major bullrun on Dogecoin, we always saw a correction of at least -60%. Therefore the recent drop of -70% was not a surprise at all but rather a natural all time high rejection. If Dogecoin manages to now create bullish confirmation, the bullrun will continue. Levels to watch: $0.2. $0.5 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
24
AUDJPYAUDJPY: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, Bank Lending Rates, and Carry Trade Advantage (June 2025) 1. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Australia (AUD): The 10-year Australian government bond yield is currently around 4.48%–4.53%. Japan (JPY): The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is about 1.48% as of June 16, 2025. 2. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): The RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May 2025, citing progress in reducing inflation and global uncertainties. Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ held its key short-term policy interest rate steady at 0.5% at its June 2025 meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008. 3. Bank Lending Rates Australia: The average overdraft bank lending rate is 10.51% as of April 2025. Japan: The long-term prime bank lending rate is 2.05% (April 2025), while the average commercial bank lending rate is reported at 1.625% as of February 2025. 4. Interest Rate Differential Policy Rate Differential:3.85%3.85% (RBA) − 0.5%0.5% (BOJ) = 3.35%. 10-Year Bond Yield Differential:4.48%4.48% (Australia) − 1.48%1.48% (Japan) = 3.00%. 5. Carry Trade Advantage Mechanism: Investors borrow in the low-yielding Japanese yen (JPY) and invest in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the interest rate differential. Current Advantage: The wide gap in both policy rates and bond yields makes AUDJPY one of the most attractive carry trade pairs in 2025. The 3.35%–3.00% differential offers steady potential returns, especially in a stable or risk-on market environment. Risks: If global risk sentiment deteriorates, the yen can strengthen rapidly as a safe haven, unwinding carry trades. Sudden shifts in RBA or BOJ policy could narrow the differential and reduce the carry trade's appeal. 6. Summary Table Factor Australia (AUD) Japan (JPY) Differential / Impact 10Y Bond Yield 4.48–4.53% 1.48% 3.00% (AUD advantage) Policy Rate 3.85% 0.5% 3.35% (AUD advantage) Bank Lending Rate 10.51% 1.625–2.05% AUD much higher Carry Trade Outlook High yield, attractive Low yield, funding Strong incentive for AUDJPY long Conclusion The AUDJPY pair is strongly supported by a wide interest rate and bond yield differential, making it a favored target for carry trade strategies in 2025. The RBA’s relatively high rates and the BOJ’s ultra-low rates, combined with stable economic conditions, provide a consistent yield advantage for investors holding long AUDJPY positions. However, traders should monitor global risk sentiment and central bank policy shifts, as these can quickly change the carry trade landscape
Long
by Shavyfxhub