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Harmonic Patterns

BITCOIN BITCOIN weekly candle closed respecting the demand ascending trendline and we have seen buyers return against speculation from elite traders, the retest of daily roof will be watched for potential rejection at 111-117k, and i will be watching 125k-136k ascending trendline roof should we have a daily break of structure above the current ALTH. keep eyes on break of the current floor break out on daily, close below will be a a new week rejection ,where we will likely hold sell into 98-97k zone .
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD GOLD ,LONDON SESSION reporting on gold price movement shows cool off from Friday rally while keeping bias bullish. the Asians open on sell from 3500 ALTH (BREAK OF STRUCTURE AT 3451-3450) ,when buyers returns today we have used that level as supply roof for 16th june 2025) and that level have held buyers and took out over 400pips and could do more from that bearish fall. but 3393-3400 will be watched by London gold traders who will weigh the risk on that demand floor ,if they accept it, we win on that level, if they reject it, we still win because we sell on break of demand floor to target 3375-3370 floor 3375-3370 will be London last hope before we head into newyork time where we will experience extreme volatility in trading.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
USDJPY recap + adding GBPUSD In watchlist Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Long
by okako_trading
3
BTC BITCOIN Bitcoin buy level on the green structure to watch will be on the 100k and my next buy watch zone will be 97-98k . Growing institutional participation, including the launch and approval of Bitcoin ETFs is increasing liquidity and legitimizing BTC as an investment asset. Macroeconomic Environment , Persistent low real interest rates by central banks and concerns about inflation support demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. Geopolitical uncertainties and currency debasement fears boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital gold. Bitcoin’s network security, hash rate, and active addresses remain robust, underpinning confidence in its decentralized infrastructure. Continued development in scaling solutions and layer-2 technologies enhances usability. Increasing regulatory clarity worldwide, including clearer frameworks for crypto exchanges and custodians, reduces uncertainty and encourages adoption. However, regulatory risks remains a factor that can cause short-term volatility. #bitcoin #btc
Long
by Shavyfxhub
USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024. The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook. The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves. The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025. Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals. Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information. Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends. The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties. JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate 1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation Strong Negative Correlation: USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa. Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD. Recent Trends: Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength. 2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields Interest Rate Differentials Influence: The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements: Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD. Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise. 3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Monetary Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD. Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Carry Trade Basics: Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential. USD/CAD Context: If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD. Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite. Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves. 5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries. Key Points of UIP: Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate. Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation. Example: Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain. Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates. Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates. CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk. Formula: The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries. USD/CAD Implication: Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair. Summary Table Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD 10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect Conclusion The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence. Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows. While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment. #USDCAD
by Shavyfxhub
BITCOINThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #bitcoin #dollar
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #GOLD #DOLLAR
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
live trade and break down 5k profits, 3500 targetGold price sticks to positive bias as sustained safe-haven buying offsets modest USD strength Gold price sticks to its bullish tone for the third consecutive day on Friday and trades close to its highest level since April 22 through the first half of the European session. Against the backdrop of trade-related uncertainties, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by afri-tradesource
GOLD GOLD ,the sudden rise in price from Asian session is driven by central bank purchase ,gold is heading to 3600 if 3400-3397 retest is successful . the high of today 3444 on supply roof structure from the 3500 all time high, will need correction into demand floor where we look to unlock next wave of buy at 3400-3397 with the hope that 3500 is retested. the dollar index 97.620 demand floor on retest bought and moved in the same direction with Gold by ignoring inverse correlation ,this price movement is reflecting fear, geopolitical tension ,economic instability and inflation concern in the global market. the yesterday economic data print will be watched by feds PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%). Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%). Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K). Headline CPI: MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%). YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%). Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing. Policy Implications: Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance. The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing. The Fed will use the datas as reinforcing evidence for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation. #gold
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2