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Harmonic Patterns

AUDCHFAUD/CHF Fundamental Analysis: Why the Australian Dollar Remains Weak Against the Swiss Franc Current Situation The AUD/CHF pair has been under pressure, reflecting a fundamentally weak Australian dollar relative to the Swiss franc. While there are some early technical signs of a potential base forming, the overall outlook remains cautious, with bearish sentiment prevailing in the near term. Key Fundamental Drivers of AUD Weakness Commodity Prices and Trade Exposure The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to commodity prices, especially iron ore and coal. Recent volatility and subdued demand from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, have weighed on the AUD. Any further deterioration in global trade or commodity prices would likely exacerbate AUD weakness. Interest Rate Differentials The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a policy rate of 4.1%, which is high compared to the Swiss National Bank’s 0.25%. However, the market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of RBA rate cuts due to subdued inflation (2.5%) and global economic uncertainty. In contrast, Switzerland’s ultra-low rates and reputation as a safe haven continue to attract capital during risk-off periods. Economic Growth and Sentiment Australia’s GDP growth (0.6% quarterly) outpaces Switzerland’s (0.2%), and its labor market remains relatively tight. However, Australia’s current account deficit (-2.1% of GDP) contrasts with Switzerland’s large surplus (7.6%), supporting the franc. Consumer confidence in Australia is robust, but global risk aversion still favors the CHF. Global Risk Appetite The Swiss franc typically strengthens during periods of global uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets. Ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and China, and concerns about global growth have kept risk appetite subdued, further supporting the CHF over the AUD. Conclusion The Australian dollar remains fundamentally weak against the Swiss franc due to soft commodity prices, a cautious RBA, Australia’s current account deficit, and persistent global risk aversion. While there are early technical signs of stabilization, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor the Swiss franc, and any sustained recovery in AUD/CHF will likely require a marked improvement in global risk sentiment and commodity demand.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
NZDUSDhe New Zealand dollar has depreciated slightly against thE US DOLLAR The pair’s movement is shaped by both domestic New Zealand fundamentals and global macroeconomic factors, especially U.S. monetary policy and trade tensions. Key Fundamental Drivers Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Policy: The RBNZ cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.5% in April, citing inflation near the midpoint of its 1–3% target and ongoing economic softness. The central bank signaled further easing is possible, with markets expecting the OCR to reach 3% by year-end. This dovish stance is a key factor weighing on the NZD. New Zealand Economic Data: Inflation is at 2.2% year-on-year (Q4). Unemployment has risen to 5.1%. The manufacturing PMI has improved to 51.4, indicating some recovery in the sector. The NZIER Survey of Business Opinion is a near-term event that could impact sentiment if it diverges from expectations. U.S. Economic and Policy Developments: The Federal Reserve is expected to consider rate cuts later in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four cuts by year-end. U.S. economic data releases, including CPI and PPI, will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s next moves. Trade tensions remain high, with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from China, creating global uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. China and Global Trade: The NZD is sensitive to developments in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Any Chinese stimulus or changes in trade policy can influence the kiwi. Current U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs are a downside risk for the NZD. Technical and Sentiment Summary The NZD/USD pair is in a bearish trend, with technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic) supporting further downside, though some short-term corrections are possible. Outlook and Risk Factor Impact on NZD/USD Directional Bias RBNZ rate cuts Weighs on NZD Bearish Weak domestic data Weighs on NZD Bearish U.S. Fed rate cut prospects Supports NZD (if realized) Bullish (potential) U.S.-China trade tensions Weighs on NZD Bearish China stimulus Supports NZD Bullish (potential the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless there is a significant shift in U.S. policy or a positive surprise in New Zealand data. Conclusion The NZD/USD is fundamentally pressured by a dovish RBNZ, weak domestic data, and global trade tensions. While a short-term rebound is possible if U.S. dollar sentiment sours or China introduces stimulus, the overall outlook remains cautious with limited upside. Key upcoming events to watch include New Zealand’s business sentiment surveys, U.S. inflation data, and any new developments in global trade policy.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
Google - Fantastic Bullish Break And Retest!Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) just looks amazing: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For more than a decade, Google has been trading in a rising channel formation, perfectly respecting all market structure. Now, Google is about to retest the previous all time high once again and with a sharp correction of about -25%, this offers a significant bullish reversal setup. Levels to watch: $150 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
23
US02YAs of April 2025, China holds approximately $759 billion to $761 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, making it the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt after Japan. This is a significant reduction from its peak holdings of $1.316 trillion in November 2013. Potential Effects if China Sells Its U.S. Treasury Holdings If China decides to sell off its U.S. Treasury holdings, the potential effects could be substantial: Spike in U.S. Interest Rates: A mass sell-off would flood the market with U.S. Treasuries, depressing their prices and causing yields (interest rates) to rise sharply. Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government could exacerbate fiscal challenges. Weakened U.S. Dollar: Selling large amounts of Treasuries would likely weaken the dollar as demand for dollar-denominated assets declines. This could lead to inflationary pressures within the U.S.. Global Financial Shock: The sudden liquidation of such a large asset pool could destabilize global financial markets, given the interconnectedness of economies and reliance on U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Economic Impact on China: Dumping Treasuries would also hurt China by reducing the value of its remaining holdings and potentially destabilizing its own economy due to reduced export competitiveness and financial ripple effects. Likelihood of a Sell-Off Despite these risks, such a move is considered unlikely for several reasons: Mutual Economic Dependency: The U.S.-China economic relationship is deeply intertwined, with China relying on U.S. debt as a safe investment for its foreign exchange reserves and the U.S. benefiting from China's purchase of Treasuries to fund its deficit. Self-Inflicted Damage: A sell-off would harm China’s own financial stability and trade relations, making it a risky strategy even during heightened tensions. In conclusion, while the threat of China weaponizing its Treasury holdings exists, it remains a double-edged sword that would inflict significant damage on both economies and global markets
TVC:US02Y
by Shavyfxhub