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Harmonic Patterns

AUDCHFThe current head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Governor Michele Bullock, who commenced her term on 18 September 2023 and is serving through at least February 2025. The current head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board, Zurich Antoine Martin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board, Berne Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board, Zurich Interest Rate Differential and Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has historically maintained a low or negative interest rate policy to curb the Swiss franc's strength and support the Swiss economy. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been adjusting rates in response to inflation and economic conditions, often maintaining higher interest rates relative to Switzerland. This interest rate differential typically supports the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, as higher Australian rates attract yield-seeking capital. However, recent global economic uncertainties and risk-off sentiment have strengthened the safe-haven Swiss franc, offsetting some of the interest rate advantage of the AUD. The head of the Swiss National Bank, in recent years, has emphasized cautious monetary policy, aiming to prevent excessive franc appreciation while managing inflation and economic stability. Directional Bias is Bearish to neutral with potential for further declines in 2025 Interest Rate Differential RBA rates generally higher than SNB, supporting AUD, but SNB's low/negative rates and safe-haven status of CHF create mixed pressures SNB Policy Cautious, focused on preventing franc appreciation, maintaining low rates Market Sentiment Risk-off environments tend to strengthen CHF, weighing on AUD/CHF In conclusion, despite the interest rate advantage of the Australian dollar, the AUD/CHF pair faces bearish pressure due to broader market sentiment favoring the Swiss franc as a safe haven and technical indicators signaling potential downside. Traders should watch SNB communications and global risk sentiment closely for directional cues The interest rate differential between Australia and Switzerland is a key driver of the AUD/CHF exchange rate. When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises interest rates relative to the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Australian dollar (AUD) generally appreciates against the Swiss franc (CHF), and vice versa. How Interest Rate Differentials Influence AUD/CHF Higher Australian Interest Rates: When the RBA sets higher interest rates compared to the SNB, it attracts foreign capital seeking better yields. This increased demand for AUD leads to its appreciation against CHF, pushing the AUD/CHF exchange rate higher Lower Swiss Interest Rates: Switzerland traditionally maintains very low or even negative interest rates to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF and support its economy. This low yield makes CHF less attractive relative to AUD when Australian rates are higher, further supporting AUD strength. Carry Trade Effect: The positive interest rate gap (for example, RBA at 4.25% vs SNB at 0.5%) incentivizes traders to buy AUDCHF to earn the interest rate differential (positive swap), which can sustain demand for AUD against CHF. Safe-Haven Status of CHF: Despite the interest rate differential, CHF often strengthens during times of global financial uncertainty due to its safe-haven status. This can offset the interest rate advantage of AUD, causing AUD/CHF to decline even if Australian rates are higher.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
BTCUSDT Bitcoin (BTC) is the world’s first and most prominent cryptocurrency, introduced in 2009 by the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized, peer-to-peer network using blockchain technology, which ensures transparency, security, and the absence of a central authority. Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it a deflationary digital asset How Bitcoin Works Blockchain: Bitcoin transactions are validated and recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, maintained by a global network of nodes. Mining: New transactions are confirmed through a process called mining, which involves solving complex cryptographic puzzles. Successful miners are rewarded with new BTC, though this reward halves roughly every four years in an event known as the "halving". Decentralization: Unlike traditional banking systems, no single entity controls Bitcoin. Anyone can participate in the network by running a node or mining. Security: Bitcoin’s security relies on cryptography and the distributed nature of its ledger. Hardware wallets are recommended for safe storage. Key Features Limited Supply: Only 21 million BTC will ever exist, contributing to its scarcity and store-of-value characteristics. Global and Borderless: Bitcoin can be sent anywhere in the world without intermediaries. Transparency: All transactions are publicly recorded and verifiable on the blockchain. Volatility: Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile, influenced by market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments. Historical Context Genesis Block: The first Bitcoin block was mined in January 2009. First Transaction: In 2010, 10,000 BTC were exchanged for two pizzas, marking the first real-world Bitcoin transaction ("Bitcoin Pizza Day"). Growth: Bitcoin’s price has experienced dramatic increases and corrections, with notable all-time highs in late 2024 and early 2025. Conclusion Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization and adoption. Its decentralized nature, capped supply, and robust security model have established it as both a digital currency and a store of value. The current price hovers around $95,000, with ongoing volatility reflecting global economic trends and evolving investor sentiment.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
DOGECOINDogecoin (DOGE) is a cryptocurrency that originated as a fun, meme-inspired digital coin but has gained significant popularity and market presence. Founder of Dogecoin Dogecoin was created by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in December 2013. Billy Markus, a software engineer from the United States, and Jackson Palmer, a marketer from Australia, developed Dogecoin as a lighthearted alternative to Bitcoin, incorporating the popular "Doge" internet meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog. The founders aimed to create a more approachable and fun cryptocurrency with a strong community focus. Founders Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer Origin Created in December 2013 as a meme-based, fun cryptocurrency Market Outlook Moderate growth expected in 2025, with price forecasts reaching $0.24 by May Dogecoin remains popular due to its active community, wide acceptance for tipping and microtransactions, and occasional high-profile endorsements.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
LITCOINFounder of Litecoin Charlie Lee is the founder of Litecoin. He created Litecoin in 2011 as a "lighter" version of Bitcoin, aiming to provide faster transaction confirmation times and a different hashing algorithm (Scrypt) to allow broader mining participation. Charlie Lee is a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency community and has been active in promoting Litecoin’s adoption and development. Summary Short-Term Bias Cautiously bullish with volatility Founder Charlie Lee Founder’s Vision Faster, more accessible alternative to Bitcoin Conclusion: Litecoin’s trade directional bias in April–May 2025 leans toward a bullish rally with expected price appreciation up to around $120, tempered by potential mid-month corrections. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely. The coin’s founder, Charlie Lee, remains a prominent advocate for Litecoin’s role as a faster, more accessible cryptocurrency alternative.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSDEUR/USD Monetary Policy Decisions from the Central Banks (April 2025) The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Deposit Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.25% Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Reduced to 2.40% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.65% These changes take effect from April 23, 2025. Rationale: The ECB cited a well-progressing disinflation process, with both headline and core inflation declining and expected to settle near the 2% medium-term target. Wage growth is moderating, and the euro area economy has shown resilience. However, the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising global trade tensions, which are increasing uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. Economic Context: Growth outlook is weakening, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that US tariffs could halve Eurozone growth this year from an already modest 0.9% forecast. Inflation risks remain, especially from potential retaliatory tariffs and increased government spending. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, continuing the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January 2025. Outlook: The Fed anticipates two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) later in 2025, but is cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, particularly from elevated tariffs and trade policy shifts. Policymakers see inflation risks as tilted to the upside but have downgraded growth forecasts for 2025 (now 1.7%, down from 2.1%). The Fed remains data-dependent, with future decisions hinging on inflation and labor market developments. Implications for EUR/USD The ECB’s rate cut narrows the interest rate differential with the Fed, which can support EUR/USD upside if the Fed remains on hold or cuts rates later than the ECB. Both central banks are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, responding to evolving inflation and growth dynamics Trade tensions and tariff policies are a major source of uncertainty for both economies and could influence further monetary policy actions. Summary Table ECB Cut by 25 bps (Apr 2025) Deposit: 2.25% Disinflation on track, growth risks from trade tensions, data-dependent Fed Held steady (Mar 2025) Fed Funds: 4.25%–4.5% Inflation risks, slower growth, 2 cuts expected in 2025, data-dependent In summary: The ECB has just cut rates to support growth as inflation moderates, while the Fed is holding steady but signaling possible cuts later in 2025. Both central banks are highly data-dependent, with trade tensions and inflation risks shaping their outlooks. This evolving policy divergence is a key driver for EUR/USD in the months ahead
Short
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD GOLD Key Drivers This Week Central Bank Buying: Ongoing strong demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, continues to underpin gold’s rally. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Persistent global tensions and trade disputes are keeping safe-haven demand elevated. Interest Rate Outlook: Markets expect U.S. interest rates to remain steady or decline, which supports gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Market Volatility: High volatility in equity markets is driving investors toward gold as a defensive asset.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD GOLD Key Drivers This Week Central Bank Buying: Ongoing strong demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, continues to underpin gold’s rally. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Persistent global tensions and trade disputes are keeping safe-haven demand elevated. Interest Rate Outlook: Markets expect U.S. interest rates to remain steady or decline, which supports gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Market Volatility: High volatility in equity markets is driving investors toward gold as a defensive asset.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a bearish phase, trading near 98.93 as of late April 2025, down from 99.71 earlier in the month. Key drivers include: Political Uncertainty: Trump’s tariff policies (e.g., 25% levies on auto/semiconductor imports) and trade tensions have eroded the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, despite initial short-lived gains. Fed Policy Expectations: Markets anticipate Fed rate cuts in 2025 if inflation cools, weakening the dollar. The Fed’s cautious stance in recent minutes has reinforced this outlook Rising Treasury yields reflect inflation concerns and foreign selling, yet the DXY has weakened due to political risks and growth fears. Basis trades (exploiting price gaps between Treasuries and derivatives) have amplified volatility, with an estimated $800B– MIL:1T at stake. Divergence Signals: The DXY-Treasury spread (usually correlated) has diverged, suggesting markets doubt the Fed’s ability to sustain higher rates despite sticky inflation. This divergence often precedes shifts in risk asset pricing. Fed Policy Impact: Fed minutes emphasize data dependency, delaying rate cuts until inflation eases convincingly. However, bond markets are pricing in 1–2 cuts by year-end, weakening the dollar. Outlook and Critical Levels Bond Yields: Likely to stabilize near 4.5% for 10-year Treasuries if inflation moderates, but geopolitical risks and tariff escalation could drive further volatility. Conclusion The DXY’s bearish bias persists amid political uncertainty and Fed dovishness, while bond markets face turbulence from inflation and foreign capital flows. Traders should monitor: Fed rhetoric and U.S. inflation data (core PCE, CPI). Geopolitical developments (U.S.-China trade talks, tariff adjustments). This interplay suggests continued volatility, with the DXY likely to underperform unless Fed policy or risk sentiment shifts abruptly.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSDKey Central Banks and Interest Rate Outlook Bank of England (BoE) Governor: Andrew Bailey Expected to maintain a cautious stance; markets price in a 25 bps rate cut in May 2025 and possibly three cuts by year-end, reflecting downgraded UK growth forecasts and inflation concerns. Rate cuts tend to weaken GBP, but cautious BoE tone and market overpricing of easing provide some support to GBP. Federal Reserve (Fed)Chair: Jerome Powell Under political pressure; markets expect Fed rate cuts if U.S. inflation cools amid trade war fears and recession risks. Fed easing weakens USD, supporting GBP/USD upside. Summary of Influences on GBP/USD Direction US Dollar Weakness: Political turmoil, trade tensions, and recession fears are driving USD lower, benefiting GBP/USD. UK Economic Outlook: Slower growth and inflation uncertainties prompt expected BoE easing, which could limit GBP gains. Trade War Impact: US tariffs and global trade tensions add uncertainty but have limited direct impact on the UK economy so far. Technical Factors: Bullish patterns and strong support levels favor further GBP/USD appreciation in the near term. Conclusion GBP/USD’s directional bias is bullish for the short to medium term, supported by a weakening USD amid political and economic uncertainties in the U.S., and technical signals favoring upward momentum. However, expected monetary easing by the Bank of England may cap gains, so traders should watch BoE’s May meeting and U.S. inflation data closely for shifts in interest rate expectations that could influence the pair’s trajectory.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Bitcoin - All Time Highs Are Inevitable!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still massively bullish: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Despite the correction of about -30% which we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin remains in a bullish market. Even if we see another drop of about -20%, this will still just turn into a textbook bullish break and retest and either way, new all time highs will follow on Bitcoin. Levels to watch: $70.000, $400.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
26
GOLDGOLD Key Drivers This Week Central Bank Buying: Ongoing strong demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, continues to underpin gold’s rally. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Persistent global tensions and trade disputes are keeping safe-haven demand elevated. Interest Rate Outlook: Markets expect U.S. interest rates to remain steady or decline, which supports gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Market Volatility: High volatility in equity markets is driving investors toward gold as a defensive asset.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
TSLAThe Future of Tesla Stocks: 2025 Outlook Current Situation As of late April 2025, Tesla (TSLA) is trading at approximately $284.95, with notable volatility Bullish scenarios: Some forecasts see TSLA reaching $360 or even as high as $800.70 by year-end, especially if Tesla executes well on new products and technology. Bearish scenarios: More cautious analysts, such as those at Wells Fargo, warn of a possible drop toward $130 if deliveries and margins disappoint, citing intense competition and slowing demand. Most forecasts for 2025 fall between $284 and $800, highlighting high uncertainty and volatility in the stock’s outlook. Key Drivers for Tesla’s Stock Performance 1. Vehicle Deliveries and Production Tesla is expected to deliver between 1.95 million and 2.5 million vehicles in 2025, with growth driven by new models like the Cybertruck and more affordable vehicles. Any production setbacks or failure to meet targets could pressure the stock. 2. Technological Innovation Success in rolling out Full Self-Driving (FSD) features and the anticipated Robotaxi service could be transformative, potentially boosting profit margins and investor sentiment. However, delays or regulatory hurdles could dampen optimism. 3. Competition and Market Share Tesla faces growing competition from legacy automakers and new EV entrants, especially in China and Europe. Its EV market share has slipped below 50% in key regions, raising concerns about sustaining growth. 4. Financial Performance Revenue is projected to grow by 17.5% to $117.2 billion in 2025, with EPS also expected to rise. Margins are under pressure due to price cuts and rising costs, a key risk factor. 5. External and Market Risks Macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates and consumer demand, will influence stock performance. CEO Elon Musk’s leadership and public perception remain influential but can also be a source of volatility. Long-Term Potential: Despite short-term risks, many analysts consider Tesla a strong long-term play due to its innovation and brand strength. Conclusion The future of Tesla stock in 2025 is highly uncertain, with forecasts ranging from significant gains to steep declines. Key factors include delivery growth, technological breakthroughs, margin management, and competitive pressures. While the long-term outlook remains positive for many analysts, short-term risks and volatility should not be underestimated. Investors should monitor Tesla’s execution on new products, regulatory developments, and broader market trends for directional cues.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSDAUD/USD Trade Directional Bias and Central Bank Impact Current AUD/USD Overview (April 2025) AUD/USD is will face 0.65362 a critical resistance zone which is also a break of demand floor ,after the weekly candle breaks 0.63675 that has capped gains throughout 2025. The pair faces mixed signals from central bank policies, technical levels, and geopolitical risks. Below is a breakdown of key drivers: Central Bank Leaders and Policy Outlook RBA Michele Bullock Cautiously dovish: Held rates at 4.10% in April but signaled openness to cuts if inflation eases. Prioritizes data dependency amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, RBA next meeting will be 7 May 2025 ) Rate cuts (expected in May/July) could weaken AUD. Fed Jerome Powell Under political pressure: Trump criticizes Powell for "keeping rates too high." Markets price in 2025 rate cuts if U.S. inflation cool.the next fed meeting will be 14–15 May 2025 (Next FOMC) ,if feds remains Dovish ,Fed shifts would weaken USD, boosting AUD/USD. Key Economic Calendar Events RBA Meetings (7 May, 18 June, 6 August) A 25 bps cut is 80% priced for May and fully priced for July. Bullock’s cautious tone suggests cuts depend on inflation and tariff impacts. U.S. Inflation Data (10 May, 12 June) Softer CPI/PPI could accelerate Fed rate cuts, weakening USD. U.S.-China Trade Developments Escalating tariffs (e.g., Trump’s 10% levy on Australian imports) risk AUD downside, but de-escalation could boost risk sentiment. Conclusion AUD/USD’s bias leans cautiously bullish if Fed dovishness outweighs RBA easing, but bearish risks persist from tariff tensions and RBA cuts. Key levels to watch: Monitor speeches by Bullock (RBA) and Powell (Fed), along with U.S. inflation data and RBA meeting outcomes, for directional cues.
Short
by Shavyfxhub