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Harmonic Patterns

GOLD The relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in May 2025 reflects typical market dynamics influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical factors: The U.S. Dollar Index has shown some recent weakness, trading around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, down about 0.06% from the previous session and roughly 4% lower year-over-year. This decline partly stems from disappointing U.S. economic data and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A weaker dollar generally supports higher gold prices because gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar falls, gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar tends to pressure gold prices downward. However, recent market behavior shows a nuanced picture: the dollar’s recent modest gains against the yen and euro have coincided with fluctuating gold prices, influenced by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. The dollar’s performance is influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and trade policy developments. For example, falling Treasury yields and dovish Fed signals have softened the dollar, which can be supportive of gold. Overall, the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains strong, but gold’s price movements also depend on inflation trends, real interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums, which can sometimes decouple gold from dollar moves in the short term. Summary: Dollar Index (DXY): Around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, slightly down recently but expected to rise moderately by year-end. Gold Price Impact: A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally; a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. Market Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions influence both gold and the dollar. This dynamic means monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy announcements is crucial for anticipating near-term moves in both gold and the dollar index.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
USOILUSOIL (WTI Crude) Fundamentals – May 2025 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics Global Oil Demand: The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow from 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 to around 650,000 bpd for the rest of 2025, reflecting economic headwinds and record-high efficiency gains. The IEA’s latest report (May 2025) estimates total demand will rise by 741,000 bpd in 2025, reaching 103.9 million bpd, with emerging markets (China, India, Africa, Latin America, Middle East) driving most of the growth. OECD demand is expected to decline, while non-OECD demand remains geographically diversified. Global Oil Supply: Global crude oil and liquids supply is forecast to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up 1.8 million bpd (+1.7%) from 2024. Non-OPEC+ countries (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada) are expected to contribute most of the supply growth, potentially resulting in a supply surplus. OPEC+ extended its 3.7 million bpd supply cuts to the end of 2026, but voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out starting April 2025. Supply-Demand Balance: The EIA expects a supply surplus in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth outpaces demand increases, especially with OPEC+ phasing out some cuts. 2. Inventory and Refinery Data U.S. Inventories: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels at the end of April, now about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline and distillate inventories remain below average, suggesting tightness in refined product markets. U.S. refineries are operating at 88.6% capacity, with robust input and flat-to-lower gasoline production. 3. Geopolitical and Macro Factors Trade Policy and Geopolitics: Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have improved risk sentiment and supported oil prices. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums, but the market remains sensitive to any setback in negotiations. OPEC+ Compliance: OPEC+ compliance with production cuts was high (112%) in March 2025, tightening supply and helping prices rebound from recent lows. 4. Price Trends and Outlook Current Prices: WTI crude is trading around $62.80–$63.50, rebounding from recent lows but still well below early 2025 peaks. Price volatility remains high (Brent’s 30-day realized volatility peaked at 35%), reflecting sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inventory data. Forecasts: J.P. Morgan maintains a Brent forecast of $66/bbl for 2025, with expectations for prices to remain under pressure due to supply surplus, but potential for mid-$70s if trade optimism and OPEC+ discipline persist. Futures markets price WTI at an average of $75/bbl for 2025, though this is above current spot prices. Summary Table Factor Current Status/Impact (May 2025) Global Demand Growth Slowing, driven by emerging markets Global Supply Rising, led by non-OPEC+ (US, Brazil, Guyana) OPEC+ Policy Extended cuts, gradual phase-out US Inventories Below 5-year average, supporting prices Geopolitical Risk Lower, but market remains headline-sensitive WTI Price Range $62.80–$63.50 (recent), futures avg $75/bbl Volatility High, driven by macro and geopolitical uncertainty Conclusion USOIL fundamentals for May 2025 reflect a market balancing slower demand growth, robust non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious optimism on geopolitics. Ongoing OPEC+ discipline and below-average inventories provide some support, but the risk of a supply surplus and persistent volatility keep prices capped. Watch for trade policy shifts, OPEC+ compliance, and inventory trends as key catalysts for the month.
TVC:USOILShort
by Shavyfxhub
Xrp - Prepare for at least a +50% move!Xrp - CRYPTO:XRPUSD - will head much higher: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Xrp has perfectly been respecting market structure lately and despite the significant volatility, the overall crypto market remains bullish. Especially Xrp is about to perform a bullish break and retest, which - if confirmed by bullish confirmation - could lead to a rally of about +50%. Levels to watch: $3.0 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
13
GBPAUDGBP/AUD Interest Rate Differential and Directional Bias (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential Bank of England (BoE): Policy rate: 4.25% (cut from 4.5% in May 2025). Outlook: Further cuts likely, but pace depends on inflation (currently 2.6% YoY) and growth (Q1 GDP: 0.6% QoQ). Markets expect 1–2 more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 4.0% by year-end. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Policy rate: 3.85% (cut by 25 bps on May 20, 2025). Outlook: Two additional cuts expected in 2025 (to 3.35%) due to subdued core inflation (2.9% in Q1) and global trade risks. Differential: +0.40% in favor of GBP, narrowing as RBA cuts outpace BoE easing. Key Economic Data and Drivers United Kingdom GDP Growth: Q1 2025 growth outperformed expectations at 0.6% QoQ, though manufacturing and industrial production lagged. Inflation: March CPI fell to 2.6%, but energy-driven price pressures may push it to 3.5% in Q3 2025. Australia Employment: April jobs data showed 20.9K jobs added (vs. 32.2K expected), with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Trade Risks: U.S.-China tariff ceasefire reduces immediate pressure, but export reliance on China leaves AUD vulnerable. Directional Bias Short-Term (Days–Weeks): Bearish GBPAUD RBA Aggression: Immediate post-cut AUD weakness expected, but faster RBA easing vs. BoE could narrow the rate gap. Growth Divergence: UK’s stronger GDP vs. Australia’s reliance on China may support GBP. Long-Term (6+ Months): Bullish GBPAUD Rate Differential Stability: BoE’s slower cuts vs. RBA’s aggressive easing may widen the gap, favoring GBP. Commodity Risks: AUD remains exposed to China’s economic slowdown and iron ore price volatility. Summary Table Time Frame Bias Key Drivers Technical Levels Short-Term Bearish RBA cuts, technical breakdown 2.0565 (S), 2.0732 (R) Medium-Term Neutral/Bullish UK growth resilience, channel support 2.0490–2.0720 (Channel) Long-Term Bullish Diverging central bank policies, AUD risks 2.1000+ (Target) Critical Factors to Monitor BoE Communications: Signals on future cuts (next meeting: June 19, 2025). RBA Policy: Additional cuts in 2025 (next decision: June 3). UK Inflation (May 29): Core PCE data critical for BoE’s path. Conclusion: GBP/AUD faces near-term bearish pressure from RBA cuts and technical breakdowns, but medium-to-long-term trends favor GBP due to slower BoE easing and UK growth resilience. Watch for shifts in central bank rhetoric and key technical levels for directional confirmation.
by Shavyfxhub
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): Policy rate: 4.25%–4.50% (held steady in May 2025). Outlook: Cautious stance amid mixed economic signals; markets expect no cuts until July 2025 unless inflation reaccelerates. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008). Outlook: Dovish despite trimming growth and inflation forecasts; further hikes unlikely until 2026 due to U.S. tariff risks and weak GDP (-0.7% annualized in Q1). Differential: ~3.75–4.00% in favor of USD, sustaining a strong yield advantage for the dollar. Upcoming Economic Data and Events United States May 29: GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd estimate): Expected to confirm 2.4% QoQ growth, rebounding from Q1 contraction. Core PCE Prices QoQ (2nd estimate): Forecast to ease to 2.6% (from 3.5% in Q1), critical for Fed’s inflation assessment. May 30: Core PCE Price Index MoM/YoY: Key Fed inflation gauge; YoY expected at 2.6% (above 2% target). Fed Communications: FOMC Minutes (May 27) and speeches by Powell, Barkin, and Williams to clarify policy trajectory. Japan BoJ Policy Signals: Focus on U.S. tariff negotiations (24% on Japanese exports) and their impact on growth. Revised 2025 GDP growth to 0.5% (from 1.0%) and core inflation to 2.2% (from 2.7%) . Trade Data: Export performance under U.S. tariffs (autos, machinery) to influence JPY sentiment. Directional Bias for USD/JPY Short-Term (May–June): Bullish USD/JPY Fed’s steady rates vs. BoJ’s dovish hold sustains yield advantage. U.S. economic resilience (rebounding GDP, strong labor market) contrasts with Japan’s contraction. U.S. Tariff Escalation: Could dampen global growth, boosting safe-haven JPY. BoJ Surprise Hike: Unlikely but not impossible if inflation overshoots. Fed Dovish Shift: If U.S. data weakens, rate cut bets may pressure USD. Summary Table Factor USD Impact JPY Impact USD/JPY Bias Fed Rate Hold Strengthens USD – Bullish BoJ Dovish Stance – Weakens JPY Bullish U.S. GDP Rebound Supports USD – Bullish Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish Conclusion: USD/JPY retains a bullish bias in the near term, driven by the Fed’s yield advantage and Japan’s economic fragility. However, escalating U.S. tariffs and safe-haven JPY demand could cap gains. Monitor U.S. inflation data (Core PCE) and BoJ rhetoric for shifts in momentum.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
2
BITCOINBITCOIN could be seeing smart money after it returns to buying character floor and as long as price remains on that 3hr/4hr demand floor it crossed since 2024 and retested it,we will keep buy sentiment and hoping that 118-119k supply roof will be attended. On a flip side ,a break below that 3hr/4hr demand floor will visit 70k zone where we have a buy traps which the last touch was a double bottom and a bullish price action .break or swipe of the zone will be 50 k zone . on weekly we have descending trendline break out which am expecting a retest on that zone. #bitcoin #btc #crypto#analysis
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD - Bullish Trend Continuation w/ Bat Pattern & Complex PBGold has been on a tear for sometime now & well, you know what they say, all good things must come to an end. In saying end, we don't necessarily mean a forever end, but perhaps sometimes a break. After failing to make a new high, it seems like Gold has reached it's excess or exhaustion phase & is beginning to show signs of relief. If this relief were to continue, not only do we have a good structure level to look for buys at, but it's also accompanied with a potential bullish bat pattern. Please leave any questions or comments below & if you'd like to share your views from either a fundamental or technical perspective, please do so as I love the conversation. Akil
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
26
AUDUSDThe interest rate differential between the U.S. and Australia is a key driver of the AUD/USD exchange rate, influencing capital flows, investor demand, and currency valuation. Here’s how it impacts AUD/USD: How Interest Rate Differential Affects AUD/USD Higher Australian Rates vs. U.S. Rates Strengthen AUD: When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the yield advantage attracts global investors seeking better returns. This leads to increased demand for the Australian dollar, causing AUD/USD to rise as investors sell USD to buy AUD. This phenomenon is often called the "carry trade." Higher U.S. Rates vs. Australian Rates Strengthen USD: Conversely, when the Fed’s rates are higher than the RBA’s, investors shift capital into U.S. assets for better yields, boosting the USD and weakening AUD/USD. Since 2022, Fed rate hikes relative to the RBA have correlated with AUD weakness. Capital Flows and Market Expectations: The interest rate differential influences international capital flows. Expectations of future rate changes by either central bank, reflected in futures markets and rate trackers, can cause AUD/USD to move ahead of actual policy shifts. For example, anticipated RBA cuts or Fed hikes typically weaken the AUD/USD. Trade and Economic Context: The impact of interest rate differentials is moderated by other factors such as commodity prices (Australia’s major exports), trade relations, and global risk sentiment. For instance, U.S. tariffs on China and other countries indirectly pressure the AUD by affecting Australia’s trade environment. Summary Scenario AUD/USD Impact Explanation RBA rates higher than Fed rates AUD/USD rises Higher Australian yields attract capital Fed rates higher than RBA rates AUD/USD falls Higher U.S. yields attract capital Market expects RBA cuts AUD/USD falls Anticipated lower yields reduce AUD appeal Market expects Fed hikes AUD/USD falls Anticipated higher yields boost USD In essence: The interest rate differential between Australia and the U.S. is a fundamental determinant of AUD/USD movements. A wider gap favoring the U.S. dollar tends to weaken the AUD/USD pair, while a narrowing or reversal in this gap can support AUD gains. Traders closely should monitor central bank policies, inflation data, and rate expectations to anticipate shifts in this differential and its effect on the currency pair.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
2
EURJPYnterest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end, as tariff risks and weak growth persist. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (from 1.0%) due to U.S. tariff risks and weak Q1 data. Rate hikes are unlikely until 2026. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Key Economic Data for May 2025 Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (Final): 0.3% QoQ (vs. preliminary 0.4%), marking the fifth straight quarter of growth. Germany (+0.2%), Spain (+0.6%), and Italy (+0.3%) outperformed France (+0.1%). Risks: U.S. tariffs on EU exports (potentially 20% starting July) threaten future growth. ECB Policy Signals: ECB President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach, with further cuts likely if inflation remains subdued. Japan Q1 GDP Contraction: -0.7% annualized (vs. -0.2% expected), driven by weak exports (-5.0%) and stagnant consumption. U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos (24%) and machinery exacerbate recession risks. BoJ Caution: Governor Ueda warned of "downside risks" from trade tensions, signaling no near-term rate hikes despite inflation above target. Directional Bias for EUR/JPY Short-Term (May–June 2025): Bullish EUR/JPY ECB’s higher rates (vs. BoJ’s 0.50%) sustain the euro’s yield advantage. Japan’s weak GDP and tariff vulnerabilities keep JPY under pressure. Medium-Term (H2 2025): Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts (to 1.75%) could narrow the rate differential, reducing EUR appeal. Safe-haven JPY demand may rise if U.S.-EU/Japan tariff tensions escalate. #SHAVYFXHUB #EURJPY #JAPAN #EUROPE #EURO #yen #fx #forex
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPYnterest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end, as tariff risks and weak growth persist. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (from 1.0%) due to U.S. tariff risks and weak Q1 data. Rate hikes are unlikely until 2026. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Key Economic Data for May 2025 Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (Final): 0.3% QoQ (vs. preliminary 0.4%), marking the fifth straight quarter of growth. Germany (+0.2%), Spain (+0.6%), and Italy (+0.3%) outperformed France (+0.1%). Risks: U.S. tariffs on EU exports (potentially 20% starting July) threaten future growth. ECB Policy Signals: ECB President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach, with further cuts likely if inflation remains subdued. Japan Q1 GDP Contraction: -0.7% annualized (vs. -0.2% expected), driven by weak exports (-5.0%) and stagnant consumption. U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos (24%) and machinery exacerbate recession risks. BoJ Caution: Governor Ueda warned of "downside risks" from trade tensions, signaling no near-term rate hikes despite inflation above target. Directional Bias for EUR/JPY Short-Term (May–June 2025): Bullish EUR/JPY ECB’s higher rates (vs. BoJ’s 0.50%) sustain the euro’s yield advantage. Japan’s weak GDP and tariff vulnerabilities keep JPY under pressure. Medium-Term (H2 2025): Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts (to 1.75%) could narrow the rate differential, reducing EUR appeal. Safe-haven JPY demand may rise if U.S.-EU/Japan tariff tensions escalate. #SHAVYFXHUB #EURJPY #JAPAN #EUROPE #EURO #yen #fx #forex
by Shavyfxhub
AUDJPYReserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Current cash rate: 4.10% (expected to cut to 3.85% on May 20). RBA on a dovish pivot driven by progress on inflation (trimmed mean CPI: 2.9% in Q1) and global trade risks. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Current policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ signaled potential hikes if economic conditions improve, but weak GDP (-0.7% annualized in Q1) and U.S. tariffs (24% on Japanese goods) limit tightening scope The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut, widely expected to be a 25 basis point reduction at the May 20, 2025 meeting, is anticipated to have a short-term bearish impact on AUD/JPY, primarily by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD) relative to the Japanese yen (JPY). Here’s why: Key Points on the Impact of the RBA Rate Cut on AUD/JPY AUD Under Pressure Due to Rate Cut Expectations: Growing market consensus around the RBA’s rate cut has already led to AUD depreciation, causing AUD/JPY to edge lower below the 92.21 level as of late April 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the yield advantage of the AUD, making it less attractive to carry traders and investors seeking higher returns. Economic Uncertainties and Trade Outlook: The RBA’s cautious, data-dependent approach amid rising economic uncertainties and global trade tensions (especially U.S.-China relations) adds to downward momentum for AUD/JPY. However, signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions could provide some support to the AUD, limiting the downside. JPY Dynamics: The Japanese yen has weakened recently due to reduced safe-haven demand amid improving global trade sentiment, which has somewhat offset AUD weakness. However, ongoing expectations of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes in 2025 support the yen, applying pressure on AUD/JPY. Moderating Factors: Reduced Aggressive Rate Cut Bets: Recent data, including a hotter-than-expected Australian Wage Price Index, has tempered expectations for aggressive RBA cuts, which could limit AUD/JPY losses. BoJ Policy Outlook: BoJ’s commitment to possible further rate hikes supports the yen, creating a headwind for AUD/JPY. Technical and Sentiment Outlook: The pair has paused recent gains and is vulnerable to further downside if the RBA confirms the cut and signals a cautious path forward. However, dip-buying interest could emerge on declines due to improving trade optimism and softer USD dynamics. Summary Factor Impact on AUD/JPY RBA 25 bps rate cut (May 20) Bearish AUD, downward pressure Signs of easing US-China trade Potential support for AUD BoJ rate hike expectations Yen strength, bearish for AUD/JPY Wage growth in Australia Limits aggressive AUD weakness Global trade sentiment Supports yen weakness, offsets AUD pressure Conclusion The anticipated RBA rate cut is expected to weigh on AUD/JPY in the short term, primarily due to reduced yield appeal of the AUD. However, improving global trade sentiment and tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts may cushion losses. The yen’s strength from BoJ tightening expectations will also continue to exert downward pressure on the pair.
by Shavyfxhub
Charts tell a story- EOSE Bullish Uptrend I believe this is so cool. When you see the pattern developing and the money flow and traders agreements in the chart. In this video I identified the set up and calculated trade entry and exit using technical analysis. I look at volume ( energy ) and candle wicks ( the story) . Then the trend. Earnings and news. Before entering a trade map out and have a trading plan, I love tradingview for the tools and opportunity we have to share.
NASDAQ:EOSELong
by chicagotrader10
8
S&P500 - The bottom we have been waiting for!The S&P500 - TVC:SPX - officially created the bottom: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) This month we officially saw one of the craziest stock market fakeouts of the past decade. With a drop and reversal rally of about +15%, the S&P500 is about to even close with a green monthly candle, which then indicates that the stock market bottom was created. Levels to watch: $120, $250 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
22
Bitcoin - The Bottom Is In!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is reversing right now: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 It was really just a matter of time until Bitcoin actually manages to create a potential short term and longer term bottom. With this monthly candle, bulls are taking over again and starting to buy cryptos quite heavily. The chart just tells us that this is not the end, but rather the continuation. Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
11