How to Trade With Cookie's A.I. Engulfing ScreenerIn this video, I break down how to use **Cookie's Engulfing Band Screener**, a powerful tool designed to filter out false engulfing signals and improve trading accuracy.
🚀 **How It Works:**
✔️ **Trade signals inside the band are false.**
✔️ **Valid trade signals occur when price breaks or touches the upper/lower band.**
✔️ **Sell Entry** – When price touches or breaks above the upper band.
✔️ **Buy Entry** – When price touches or breaks below the lower band.
✔️ If price re-enters the band after breaking out, another entry signal is triggered.
🎯 **Key Features:**
✅ Works on any timeframe
✅ Automatically places buy/sell labels at the right spots
✅ Alerts for trade entries so you never miss an opportunity
✅ Helps you avoid bad trades and focus on high-probability setups
🔥 **Why Use This?**
I've found this to be extremely effective in improving my trading accuracy, cutting out noise, and refining my entries. If you're looking for a simple yet powerful way to trade engulfing patterns with confidence, this is for you!
📈 **Watch the full breakdown and start trading smarter today!**
🔔 **Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategies!**
X-indicator
CPI Data & Trend Rejection – Precision Trading on USDJPY🚀 High-Impact CPI Data Moves Markets – Smart Traders Win! 🚀
This trade was executed with precision using a clear downtrend, key rejection zone, and market reaction to CPI data. Combining technical confluence with fundamental catalysts, we secured a solid 1:5 RR setup.
📉 Expert analysis confirms trend strength after inflation data!
✅ Strong break of the downward trend – Clear technical confirmation of bearish momentum.
✅ CPI impact on the markets – High volatility creates golden opportunities!
🔍 Technical indicators confirmed the entry from the rejection zone (AOI).
✅ Price reacted perfectly to the analysis, securing a solid 1:5 RR!
📢 This is the power of combining technical and fundamental analysis – trading smart, not random!
💬 Drop your analysis in the comments & follow for more top-tier setups! 🚀📉
#Forex #GoldTrading #USDJPY #CPI #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #FinancialMarkets #SmartTrading
How To Locate Pivot Points Easily Using Free IndicatorsHere are some helpful links for all of you...
My indicators on Trading View, I don't use that many.
Bad Ass B-Bands by WyckoffMode (follow this guy on all platforms)
Chart Champions CC Pocket
VuManChu Cipher B
Off of Trading View
I use BookMap for order flow data. This is where I can pick out exact locations of order walls i.e. pivot points.
My Tutorial on how to easily find squeezes
Here are links to my watchlists (some new ones are missing from Coinbase, add new ones manually)
Coinbase
tradingview.com/watchlists/74158386/
Gemini
tradingview.com/watchlists/74158590/
Kraken
tradingview.com/watchlists/96996184/
DXY: Dollar Surges Amid Inflation Pressures! Hi Traders
Since the CPI came in higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3%), this signals continued inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider raising them if inflation continues to rise.
The dollar could gain strength 💪 due to expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish. Markets may experience significant volatility ⚠️, especially in dollar pairs and U.S. indices.
The Main Elements of Profitable Trading Strategy (Forex, Gold)
There are hundreds of different trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis.
These strategies combine different tools and trading techniques.
And even though, they are so different, they all have a very similar structure.
In this educational article, we will discuss 4 important elements and components every GOLD, Forex trading strategy should have.
What Do You Trade
1️⃣ The first component of a trading strategy is the list of the instruments that you trade.
You should know in advance what assets should be in your watch list.
For example, if you are a forex trader, your strategy should define the currency pairs that you are trading among the dozens that are available.
How Do You Trade
2️⃣ The second element of any trading strategy is the entry reasons.
Entry reasons define the exact set of market conditions that you look for to execute the trade.
For example, trading key levels with confirmation, you should wait for a test of a key level first and then look for some kind of confirmation like a formation of price action pattern before you open a trade.
Above, is the example how the same Gold XAUUSD chart can be perceived differently with different trading strategies.
3️⃣ The third component of a trading strategy is the position size of your trades.
Your trading strategy should define in advance the rules for calculating the lot of size of your trades.
For example, with my trading strategy, I risk 1% of my trading account per trade. When I am planning the trading position, I calculate a lot size accordingly.
Position Management
4️⃣ The fourth element of any trading strategy is trade management rules.
By trade management, I mean the exact conditions for closing the trade in a loss, taking the profit and trailing stop loss.
Trade management defines your actions when the trading position becomes active.
Make sure that your trading strategy includes these 4 elements.
Of course, your strategy might be more sophisticated and involve more components, but these 4 elements are the core, the foundation of any strategy.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
3 Tools for Timing PullbacksPullbacks in trends can offer some of the highest quality trading opportunities, but not all pullbacks are equal. Some offer high-probability setups, while others are warning signs of deeper corrections or trend reversals.
So how do you time your entry with confidence? Here are three effective tools to help you navigate pullbacks with precision.
1. Keltner Channels: Spotting Pullbacks Within Volatility
Keltner Channels are a volatility-based tool that adapts to changing market conditions. They consist of a central moving average with two outer bands—typically set at a multiple of the average true range (ATR). These bands expand and contract as market volatility changes.
How to Use It:
When price moves into or beyond the Keltner Channel’s outer bands, it signals that momentum is outpacing short-term volatility. This surge in momentum provides an ideal setup to anticipate a pullback.
For timing entries, a steady retracement back to the basis line (middle band) often presents the best opportunity to join the trend. The strongest pullbacks tend to be controlled, showing reduced momentum compared to the initial move. In contrast, a deep retracement all the way to the opposite band suggests strong counter-trend pressure, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics rather than a simple pullback.
Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart
In this example, we see gold pushing into the upper Keltner Channel, retracing to the basis line, finding support, and then resuming its uptrend. This pattern repeated multiple times during last year’s bull run, offering traders several high-probability entry points.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Anchored VWAP: Confirming Institutional Interest
The Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a tool that’s widely used by institutional traders. It tracks the average price a market has traded at, weighted by volume, over a specific period. The key difference with Anchored VWAP is that you can "anchor" it to a significant price point (e.g., a breakout or major low), giving you a dynamic reference point for future price action.
How to Use It:
Anchor the VWAP to a key price level, like the low of the trend or a breakout point.
A pullback to the anchored VWAP is often viewed as a high-probability area for entry. This is because institutional traders may be accumulating positions at this level, making it an important support or resistance zone.
When the price pulls back to the VWAP and starts to hold above it, it suggests that demand is outweighing supply, making it a potentially good place to enter.
Example: USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Having it highs in November, USD/JPY underwent a steady pullback in December, forming a clear base of support at the VWAP anchored to the September trend lows.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring the Depth of the Pullback
The Fibonacci retracement tool is one of the most popular tools for measuring the depth of a pullback. It uses horizontal lines at key Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.) to show potential support and resistance areas during a retracement.
How to Use It:
Identify the high and low of a trending move and apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to measure the distance of the pullback.
Traders should be wary of applying too many Fib levels to their chart, so we would favour focusing on just the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Never assume that Fib levels will hold, wait for price action-based evidence form confirmation.
If price action holds at one of these levels and begins to reverse, it suggests that the trend is likely to resume. The deeper the pullback, the more cautious you should be, but price patterns that align with the 61.8% level should still be considered as potential entry points.
Example: S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
We can see from this example that the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement zone was a useful tool for timing pullbacks on the S&P 500.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Bringing It All Together
The best time to enter a pullback is when multiple tools align. For instance:
A pullback to Keltner Channel's outer band that also aligns with a Fibonacci level could signal a strong buy zone.
Anchored VWAP and Fibonacci levels acting together as support can further confirm the validity of the pullback.
By combining these tools, you'll have a more comprehensive understanding of where the market is likely to resume its trend, increasing your chances of a successful entry.
Example: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Here we can see EUR/USD breaks lower – down into the lower Keltner channel. This is followed by a pullback that end up reversing at a confluent zone that includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the basis of the Keltner channel, and the VWAP anchored to the highs.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
Timing pullbacks effectively can make a huge difference in trading success, and using the right tools helps separate high-probability setups from lower quality trades. Keltner Channels highlight volatility-driven pullbacks, Anchored VWAP identifies levels where institutions may be active, and Fibonacci retracements offer a structured approach to measuring pullback depth. When these tools align, they create confirmation zones that improve trade timing and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles (Bullish & Bearish)
If you spot a large candle with high volume, whether bearish or bullish, you can use Fibonacci retracement on the candle itself to determine potential reversal or continuation zones. Here’s how to apply it in both scenarios:
1️⃣ Large Bearish Candle (Bearish Bar)
📉 (Red candle with high volume closing near the low)
How to Identify a Bearish Candle?
✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the low (strong selling signal).
✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Selling (Smart Money Selling).
✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the low, it could indicate hidden buying (stopping volume).
How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bearish Candle?
1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bearish candle:
• High = The top of the candle.
• Low = The bottom of the candle.
• This represents the range of the selling pressure in the market.
2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low:
• 0% = Low (Bottom of the bearish bar).
• 100% = High (Top of the bearish bar).
• Key levels to watch:
• 38.2% → Weak retracement, market may continue down.
• 50% → Balance point, strong resistance possible.
• 61.8% → Potential reversal zone; if price fails to break it, the downtrend may continue.
• 78.6% → If price breaks this, trend may change.
3️⃣ If the market continues downward, check Fibonacci extensions:
• 127.2% & 161.8% → Downside targets if the bearish trend continues.
Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Selling
✅ Sell Entry: If the price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and rejects with weak volume.
❌ Stop Loss: Above 61.8% or the last swing high.
🎯 Targets:
• Break of the large candle’s low.
• Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%.
2️⃣ Large Bullish Candle (Bullish Bar)
📈 (Green candle with high volume closing near the high)
How to Identify a Bullish Candle?
✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the high → Strong buying signal.
✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Buying (Smart Money Buying).
✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the high, it could indicate supply absorption.
How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bullish Candle?
1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bullish candle:
• High = The top of the candle.
• Low = The bottom of the candle.
• This represents the range of the buying pressure in the market.
2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low:
• 0% = High (Top of the bullish bar).
• 100% = Low (Bottom of the bullish bar).
• Key levels to watch:
• 38.2% → Shallow pullback, market may continue up.
• 50% → Balance point, potential bounce area.
• 61.8% → Strong support zone; if price holds with weak volume, an uptrend may continue.
• 78.6% → If broken, trend may reverse.
3️⃣ If the market continues upward, check Fibonacci extensions:
• 127.2% & 161.8% → Upside targets if the bullish trend continues.
Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Buying
✅ Buy Entry: If price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and bounces with high volume.
❌ Stop Loss: Below 61.8% or the last swing low.
🎯 Targets:
• Break of the large candle’s high.
• Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%.
🎯 Quick Summary: When to Enter?
🔴 Sell:
• Large red candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with weak volume.
• Stop loss above 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
🟢 Buy:
• Large green candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with strong volume.
• Stop loss below 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders.
In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action.
The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows:
PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3
S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high
S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low)
R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low
R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low)
The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading
1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action
One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI.
Example:
In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Riding the Breakout
When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies.
Example:
In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Target Setting and Risk Management
Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move.
Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk.
Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools
While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness:
VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone.
Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points.
RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal.
Example:
In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing
Portfolio Selection for the Week – 10th February 2025This portfolio selection is for educational purposes only!
The key to successful trading lies in consistency. Consistent decision-making, combined with a positive edge, is what leads to long-term success in the markets. This is why we regularly conduct portfolio selection.
At present, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is the strongest currency, followed by the US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). On the weaker side, we see Swiss Franc (CHF), Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and British Pound (GBP).
Most currency pairs have been experiencing secondary trends. Once this phase concludes, we can look to align trades with the dominant market trend.
If you find this content valuable, hit the boost and share your thoughts in the comments!
Wishing you a profitable trading week! 🚀📈
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC).
Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management.
Identifying the Trade Setup
Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.
The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone.
Trade Plan and Risk Management
The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively:
The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken.
The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level.
Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (GC) details:
Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 100 troy ounces
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details:
Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC)
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract.
Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals.
If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade.
Conclusion
Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025?How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025: A Step-by-Step Action Plan
With prop trading firms offering funding to skilled traders, 2025 presents an excellent opportunity to trade with significant capital while limiting your personal risk. Here’s a detailed roadmap to getting funded and becoming a successful prop trader in the forex market.
________________________________________
📌 Step 1: Build a Profitable Trading Strategy
Before applying to a prop firm, you need a tested and profitable strategy that aligns with prop firm risk rules. Here’s what to focus on:
✅ Choose a Trading Style
• Scalping – Quick, small trades (requires low spreads and fast execution).
• Day Trading – Intraday trades with clear setups (most prop firms allow).
• Swing Trading – Holding trades for days/weeks (lower stress, fits many prop firm rules).
• Algorithmic Trading – Using bots or EAs (some firms allow automation).
✅ Develop a High-Probability Edge
• Top-Down Technical Analysis (Identify trends using multiple timeframes).
• Price Action & Market Structure (Support/resistance, breakouts, trendlines).
• Risk-Reward Ratios (Aim for at least 1:2 RR on trades).
• News & Fundamentals (FOMC, NFP, CPI, interest rate decisions).
✅ Backtest & Optimize Your Strategy
• Use Forex Tester 5 or TradingView’s replay mode to test past market conditions.
• Run at least 100-200 trades in a demo account.
• Maintain a win rate above 50% with an R:R of 1:2 or higher.
________________________________________
📌 Step 2: Master Risk & Money Management
Most prop firms fail traders due to poor risk management. Here’s how to avoid that:
✅ Follow Strict Drawdown Rules
• Daily Drawdown: Most firms allow 5% max daily loss.
• Overall Drawdown: 8-10% max loss before account termination.
• Solution: Risk only 0.5% - 1% per trade.
✅ Position Sizing
• Lot Size Calculator: Always use a calculator to match risk per trade.
• Adjust for Volatility: Trade smaller lots on high-impact news days.
✅ Risk-Adjusted Growth
• Withdraw profits monthly to secure earnings.
• Scale up gradually instead of over-leveraging.
________________________________________
📌 Step 3: Get Funded by a Prop Firm
🚀 Top Prop Firms in 2025 for Forex Traders
• FTMO – Up to $400,000 funding, 90% profit share.
• My Forex Funds (MFF) – Up to $600,000 funding, 85% profit split.
• The Funded Trader – 80-90% profit split, offers aggressive scaling.
• Fidelcrest – Allows scalping, news trading, and EAs.
• E8 Funding – Low drawdown rules, 80% split.
📈 How to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
Most firms require a two-phase evaluation:
1. Phase 1: Profit target (8-10%) within 30 days without exceeding the daily/overall drawdown.
2. Phase 2: Lower profit target (4-5%) within 60 days with the same risk rules.
3. Funded Stage: Trade firm capital with a profit split (usually 75-90% to the trader).
🛠️ Pro Tips to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
✅ Risk only 0.5% per trade (low risk = higher success rate).
✅ Trade high-probability setups only (2-3 trades per day max).
✅ Avoid trading the first & last 15 minutes of sessions (high spreads).
✅ Use a prop firm challenge simulator before applying.
________________________________________
📌 Step 4: Optimize & Scale Your Trading Career
🔹 Get Multiple Funded Accounts
• Many firms allow traders to manage multiple accounts.
• Use copy trading software (e.g., Trade Copier, FXBlue) to replicate trades across accounts.
• Some firms have a combined max funding of over $2 million.
🔹 Transition to a Full-Time Forex Trader
1. Withdraw Profits Monthly – Secure earnings and reinvest.
2. Diversify Income Streams – Consider trading signals, coaching, or selling EAs.
3. Trade with Institutional Mindset – Focus on consistency over big wins.
________________________________________
📌 Step 5: Use Trading Tools & AI Bots for an Edge
🔹 Best Forex Trading Tools in 2025
📊 TradingView & MT5 – Best for charting & analysis.
📉 AutoRisk Calculator – Automates lot sizing based on risk %.
🤖 AI & Algo Bots – AI-powered news sentiment analysis & high-frequency trading.
📅 Forex Factory & Myfxbook – Economic calendar & trade tracking.
________________________________________
📌 Step 6: Stay Ahead in the Forex Market
🚀 Follow Pro Traders – Learn from institutions & hedge funds.
📊 Analyze Market Cycles – 2025 will be affected by interest rates & global policies.
📉 Avoid Overtrading – Focus on quality over quantity.
📈 Invest in Continuous Learning – Join trading communities & courses.
________________________________________
🎯 Final Thoughts: The Fastest Way to Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025
✅ Develop a tested, profitable strategy.
✅ Master risk & money management.
✅ Apply to top prop firms & pass the evaluation.
✅ Scale with multiple funded accounts.
✅ Stay disciplined, patient, and focused on long-term success.
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Multi-Timeframe Volume Profile and Divergence StrategyObjective:
To combine multi-timeframe analysis, volume profile insights, and divergence patterns for identifying high-probability trades.
1. Strategy Components
A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use three timeframes for analysis:
Higher timeframe (HTF): To identify the overall trend (e.g., Weekly/4H).
Intermediate timeframe (ITF): For spotting critical support/resistance zones (e.g., Daily/1H).
Lower timeframe (LTF): For precise entry and exit signals (e.g., 15M/5M).
B. Volume Profile:
Incorporate Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR):
Identify key areas: Point of Control (POC), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Low Volume Nodes (LVN).
Use these levels as dynamic support and resistance.
C. Divergence Patterns:
Look for Bullish Divergence and Bearish Divergence on oscillators like:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
MACD
Stochastic RSI
Combine divergences with price action near significant volume levels.
D. Additional Tools:
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): For trend direction.
ATR (Average True Range): For stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: For confluence with volume profile levels.
2. Trading Plan
Step 1: Higher Timeframe Trend Identification
Use the HTF to establish whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or range.
Mark key swing highs, lows, and supply/demand zones.
Step 2: Intermediate Timeframe Analysis
Apply the Volume Profile on the ITF to find:
POC: Indicates price consensus.
HVN/LVN: Potential zones for reversals or continuation.
Watch for price approaching these levels.
Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution
Monitor LTF for:
Divergence signals on oscillators.
Candle patterns like pin bars, engulfing candles, or inside bars at significant levels.
Confirm trades using:
Price breaking out of LVN or rejecting HVN.
Crossovers of EMA for extra confirmation.
3. Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profi t
Entry:
Long Position:
Price reacts at HVN/LVN near a support level.
Bullish divergence on LTF.
Short Position:
Price tests HVN/LVN near resistance.
Bearish divergence on LTF.
Stop Loss:
Place just beyond recent swing high/low or above/below the LVN/HVN zone.
Use ATR (1.5x) for volatility-based placement.
Take Profit:
First target: Nearby POC or Fibonacci levels.
Second target: HTF supply/demand zone
Learn What Will Make You Profitable in Forex & Gold Trading
What brings the consistent profits in trading?
Talking to hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that there are the common misconceptions concerning that subject.
In this educational article, we will discuss what really will make you profitable in trading.
Trading Signals
🔔The first thing that 99% of struggling traders are looking for is signals.
Why damn learn if you can simply follow the trades of a pro trader and make money?!
The truth is, however, is that in order to repeat the performance of a signal provider you have to open all your trading positions in the same exact moment he does. (And I would not even mention the fact that there will be a delay between the moment the provider opens the trade and the moment he sends you the signal)
Because the signal can be sent at a random moment, quite often it will take time for you to reach your trading terminal and open the position.
Just a 1-minute delay may dramatically change the risk to reward ration of the trade and, hence, the final result.
Expert Advisors
🤖The second thing that really attracts the struggling traders is trading robots (EA) . The systems that trade automatically and aimed to generate consistent profits.
You simply start the program and wait for the money.
The main problem with EA is the fact that it requires constant monitoring . It can stop or freeze in a random moment and may require a reboot.
Moreover, due to changing market conditions, the EA should be regularly updated. Without the updates, at some moment it may blow your account.
Trading robot is the work : trading with the robots means their constant development, monitoring and improvement. And that work requires a high level of experience: both in coding and in trading.
Technical Indicators
📈The third thing that struggling traders are seeking is the "magic" indicator. The one that will accurately identify the safe points to buy and sell. You add the indicator on the chart, and you simply wait for the signal to open the trade.
The fact is that magic indicators do not exist. Indicator is the tool that can be applied as the extra confirmation. It should be applied strictly in a combination with something else, and its proper application requires a high level of expertise in trading.
Luck in Trading
🍀The fourth thing that newbie traders seek is luck. They open the trade, and then they pray the God, Powell, Fed or someone else to move the market in their favour.
And yes, occasionally, luck will be on your side. But relying on luck on a long-term basis, you are doomed to fail.
But what will make you profitable then?
What is the secret ingredient.
Remember, that secret ingredient does not exist.
In order to become a consistently profitable traders, you should rely on 4 crucial elements: trading plan, risk management, discipline and correct mindset.
🧠What is correct mindset in trading?
It simply means setting REALISTIC goals and having REALISTIC expectations from the market and from your trading.
📝A trading plan is the set of rules and conditions that you apply for the search of a trading setup and the management of the opened position.
Trading plan will be considered to be good if it is back tested on historical data and then tested on demo account for at least 3 consequent months.
✔️In order to follow the plan consistently, you need to be disciplined . You should be prepared for losing streaks, and you should be strong enough to not break once your trading account will be in a drawdown.
💰Risk management is one of the most important elements of your trading plan. It defines your risk per trade and your set of actions in case of losses. Even the best trading strategies may fail because of poor risk management.
Combining these 4 elements, you will become a consistently profitable trader. Remember, that there is no easy way, no shortcut. Trading is a hard work to be done.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
HOW-TO Swing Trade SolanaI take a much more conservative approach to trading - that's how the JSC - Swing Long is used. It simply finds extremely oversold moments (on larger time frames) and reaps the rewards. The strategy tester shows 82% win rate using this indicator, with an average 22.5% trade.
As of now, it's VERY close to triggering the BUY alert, but I can't be too hasty because of this bearish momentum we are seeing.
I am able to set alerts for this indicator, so as of now, I will wait for the BUY alert.
I designed it specifically for my students, especially beginners, to have confidence in their next trade.
SOL blockchain is the KING of meme coins - that's the main reason it gained so much value in this bull run. In order to buy meme coins, you had to buy Solana first, then swap it.
Keep it simple and have confidence in your next trade.
-JumpStartCrypto
Mastering Bitcoin #1In this quick but educational video we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements using popular technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands, Elliott Wave Theory, Triple Moving Average, and Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI. Learn how these few indicators can help predict what might be ahead for Bitcoin based on current data.
I'm gonna make this into a habit, creating short, educational videos, so expect more of this insightful, bite-sized content going forward.
Marking MC, and Signal BarTo mark the Master Candle (MC), wait for the price to cross and close 7EMA. Then look to the left of the candle that crossed and closed it. In most cases, the MC is directly in front of this candle.
As it's shown in the chart, Candle X has crossed and closed 7EMA. So, candle Y is the MC.
Bullish Signal Bar: a green Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's upper shadow.
Bearish Signal Bar: a red Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's lower shadow.
Note 1: Signal Bar can be spotted via Candlestick Math too. This means we consider the opening price of the first and the closing price of the last candle. If these candles add to a valid Signal Bar, we consider it as a signal to go in trade.
Note 2: the only situations that Signal Bar is valid:
For trading in the opposite direction of the trend, we should be in a ranging market (inside the MC range), and the price should have toughed MC levels and BB (Bollinger Bands).
For trading in the direction of the trend, the price should have at least touched an MC level and one of the EMAs.
As we see, summation of candles X & Y was not a bearish Pinbar. So, we don't have a valid signal to go short after candle Y. In these situations we expect the price to go higher.
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions
Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal.
A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios
Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618).
In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions:
- Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points.
- Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement.
Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%.
What Are Fibonacci Extensions?
Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries.
Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets.
Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions
Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred.
As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse.
It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits.
Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy
If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow.
- Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness.
- Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction.
- Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected.
That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours.
Bullish Example
In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound.
Bearish Example
Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal.
Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher.
How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions?
While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels.
- Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react.
- Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point.
- Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations.
- Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback.
- Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance.
- Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level.
- Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable.
- Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed.
Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions
Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy.
- Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices.
- Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations.
- Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance.
- Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making.
- Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market.
- Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold.
- Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions.
Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions
By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy.
- Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above.
- Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level.
Your Next Steps
Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck!
FAQ
How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions?
Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement.
How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions?
The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets.
What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions?
Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EMAs V.2This article will enhance the definition and guidelines for using EMA in the ARZ Trading System.
General Conditions and Significance:
Trend Direction: Price should pull back (at least once) and then resume making new highs/lows, with the candle body (uptrend/downtrend).
Trend Strength: the steepness of the EMA slope.
Ranging: If the EMA is flat or the price repeatedly crosses and closes without pullbacks, it indicates a range.
Each EMA's usage:
7EMA: Spike and Master Candle Identification. Spike: a trending market based on 7EMA. Once the price is crossed and closed 7EMA with a candle body, look to the left to find the Master Candle.
20EMA: Minor Structure. Always trade in the direction of minor trends unless it’s a minor range.
50EMA: Major Structure. Serves as a key level to indicate default buying or selling conditions: if the price is above, it suggests buying; if below, it suggests selling.
100EMA and 200EMA: Just as a key level for analyzing price.
Let's analyze this chart:
In candle #1, the price has crossed and closed and created a new high. So it is a pullback and we are in an upward Spike.
In candle, X price has crossed and closed below 7EMA, after giving at least one pullback to it. So we look to the left to find the MC (Master Candle) which is candle #2.
In candle #3, the price has crossed and closed below 20EMA, so if in the future the price can't break the 7EMA upward, it most likely will continue a downward Spike until reaching the LTP of the MC (which happened after giving pullback to 7EMA in candle #4). We expect this behaviour.
After breaking the LTP, although the candle is huge, it wasn't able to break the 50EMA (Exhaustion Candle). It is a sign of a possible reversal to the MC. Candle #6 is a Signal Bar (which will be covered in future) and confirms it.
In the circled area, we are in MC (Ranging Market) and this type of behaviour is normal. Until we see another Signal Bar at #7 which is after rejecting the price from multiple levels (LTP, mid-LTP, 7EMA, 20EMA). A clear sign of continuing upward.
In candle #8, the price crossed and closed above UTP, followed by a pullback and a higher close in candle #9. At the same time, we reached the next TP based on UTP_2.
Becaused price has reached UTP_2, if 7EMA crossed and closed again we have to find a new MC. Candle #10 shows us that Candle #9 is the new MC. At candle #11 we have a Signal Bar at LTP and 20EMA. The perfect setup to go long!
Thoughts on Technical Analysis (Part 1)
1- Taking market entries at exhaustion figures (accumulations or distributions) is a poor investment if the preceding trends show strength (especially if the trendline hasn't been broken or they are in contradiction with balance points of higher timeframes, like a 20 EMA).
Secure reversals occur in contexts of weakness.
2- Thinking of price charts as something that either goes up or down is a mistake, as markets tend to go through long periods of indecision. We should avoid these circumstances unless a study in higher timeframes provides us with a favorable context.
3- Trades where the Stop Loss (SL) is protected by price formations, (especially if the target shows a good risk-reward ratio) not only add security to our trades but also attract more participants, increasing the chances of success.
4- Forcing market entries (or analysis) implies a lack of experience, system, or investment methodology.
Even discretionary investors express that the best opportunities are evident at first glance.
5- Not being flexible to market changes is often more a matter of ego than inexperience.
6- There is no risk management nor is it possible to perform backtesting without fixed, immutable parameters.
Any minimal change when executing our market entries significantly impacts our success rate.
7- We should avoid analyzing the market starting from lower timeframes, as our analysis might be biased once we approach higher timeframes.
Higher timeframes clarify.
8- We should avoid using several indicators of the same type (oscillators or trend), as the signals will be relatively similar in the same context, which does not provide a significant advantage.
A hundred aligned oscillator crossovers in the same timeframe won't make a difference.
9- The best quantitative trading systems are trained based on historical patterns. Moreover, harmony and repetitive patterns attract more investors.
The root of Technical Analysis is the historical pattern, and a pattern of behavior increases the probability of success.
10- The best market entries are in balance zones, and even reversals in lower timeframe trends (in disequilibrium) generally increase their reliability when they find a balance point in higher timeframes.
11- A engulfing candle is a trend in a lower timeframe, so any formation or pattern can be contextualized.
12- There are two approaches to tackling a price chart: the quantitative and the discretionary (or logical). Both approaches recognize that the market forms patterns with some predictive capacity, but they accept that most of the time randomness prevails.
13- The fathers of Technical Analysis (Charles Dow and Richard W. Schabacker) claim that lower timeframes are more prone to manipulation. Another interesting fact is that documented quantitative systems decrease their success rate at lower timeframes (some becoming unusable at 1-hour or higher timeframes).
14- Major changes in price charts are caused by minorities (who concentrate more wealth and influence) that are better informed and capitalized.
Notes:
Some classic authors taught how periods of great popular euphoria generate market corrections, as in the case of Charles Dow; while others directly created methods to understand and exploit manipulation, like Richard D. Wyckoff and his "strong hands".
The popular euphoria generated by the news that the SEC would allow the creation of the first Bitcoin ETFs, and BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF market did not cause the expected rise, but a correction. Also, Donald Trump's rise to power and encouraging news generated popular euphoria which translated into another correction. Currently, many stocks, especially tech ones, are at inflection points according to the historical record of price action, some showing exhaustion figures. It wouldn't surprise me if a series of "geopolitical circumstances" justified the corrections.
15- Colorful charts increase the irrationality and risk appetite of investors (and investment platforms know this).
Notes:
Investors in feudal Japan used red and black to represent price fluctuations. Bullish candles were red, and bearish ones were black. With the red color, investors remained alert and skeptical about gains, and black was a neutral color meant to convey calm in the face of trend reversals.
Libraries, offices, universities, and any place where maximum intellectual performance is required are decorated with neutral colors. Recreational places like bars, clubs, or casinos are extremely colorful.
EDUCATION: Using RENKO Charts to Trade Crypto Like a ProRenko charts strip away the noise of traditional candlestick charts, making them a powerful tool for trading crypto. Instead of plotting price movements based on time, Renko charts focus purely on price changes, filtering out the wicks and erratic movements that make crypto trading so volatile.
Why Use Renko for Crypto?
Crypto markets never sleep, and their constant fluctuations can overwhelm traders. Renko simplifies this by helping you:
Spot Trends Clearly – No distractions from minor price fluctuations.
Reduce Market Noise – Filters out insignificant moves and focuses on real momentum.
Identify Support & Resistance – Renko blocks highlight strong price levels better than traditional charts.
How to Set Up Renko for Crypto Trading
Choose an ATR-Based Brick Size – A 14 or 13-period ATR setting adapts to market volatility.
Identify Key Levels – Look for trend reversals, double tops/bottoms, and support/resistance zones.
Use Confirmation Indicators – Pair Renko with moving averages or RSI to confirm trades.
Renko is a game-changer for crypto traders who want cleaner, more actionable charts. Have you tried trading crypto with Renko? Drop a comment and share your experience! 🚀 #CryptoTrading #RenkoCharts #Bitcoin
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine
TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants.
Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures
Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period.
In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan.
The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel
This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target:
o Entry Zone:
An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry.
o Stop Loss:
Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
o Profit-Taking Strategy:
First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level
This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone.
Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations
Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL:
o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800.
o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580.
Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value.
Execution and Market Conditions
To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.
Key Considerations Before Entering
Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade
Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones
Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure
Final Thoughts
This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management.
For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.






















