Bitcoin:Digital Gold or the Most Sophisticated Mirage of Our EraImagine for a moment that you could travel back in time and explain the concept of paper money to someone from 500 years ago: "Are you telling me this paper is worth something just because we all agree it has value?" They would look at you as if you were crazy. Yet here we are, using paper money every day without thinking twice about it.
Bitcoin generates today the same disbelief that paper money once provoked. Since its creation in 2009, it has been the subject of intense debates: Is it truly the digital gold of our era or the most sophisticated mirage in financial history?
The answer is more fascinating than it seems. Like Schrödinger's cat, Bitcoin exists in a state of superposition: simultaneously embodying characteristics of digital gold and exhibiting speculative behaviors, without being exclusively either.
Gold has endured for millennia as a store of value due to characteristics that Bitcoin replicates digitally:
• Scarcity: Only 21 million units will ever exist.
• Durability: The blockchain is immutable.
• Divisibility: Each Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million Satoshis.
• Accessibility: Instantly transferable across borders.
When people debate whether Bitcoin is digital gold or a bubble, they're asking the wrong question. It's like asking whether the Internet in 1995 was a communication network or a passing fad. The reality is that it was something completely new, something that would change the world in unpredictable ways.
Bitcoin, although speculative, has also proven to be a catalyst for profound changes in how we understand money, finance, and decentralization. Its evolution might resemble that of other disruptive innovations which, after a period of speculation, found their place in the world.
As central banks print more money, Bitcoin emerges as an alternative to the traditional financial system. Its digital nature positions it perfectly in an increasingly globalized and technological world.
Bitcoin has achieved something that seemed impossible: creating genuine scarcity in the digital world. It's not just "gold," it's the first successful experiment in native Internet money.
The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is digital gold or a speculative bubble. The real question is: Are we witnessing the birth of a new financial standard?
As financial institutions, companies, and governments increasingly adopt this asset, one thing becomes clear: Bitcoin is not simply a passing trend, but a window into a future where technology and finance merge in ways we're just beginning to understand.
X-indicator
Will Bitcoin Push BLX to New Heights? Analyzing Market Cycles anHI traders
Bitcoin has the power to shape the future, and as BLX follows its path, understanding the emotional market cycles becomes key to navigating its potential. In this analysis, we’ll explore the relationship between Bitcoin's movements and the psychological phases of the market cycle. From the initial optimism that drives the first wave of buying, to the euphoria when prices surge to new highs, and then the inevitable anxiety as market sentiment begins to shift. Fear sets in during the panic phase, leading to widespread selling, followed by despair, where most investors exit the market. However, this is followed by hope as the market stabilizes and slowly recovers. Understanding how these emotional shifts influence BLX and Bitcoin will help you spot opportunities, manage risk, and position yourself for success as the market moves through its cyclical nature. The key is not just predicting the market, but mastering your emotions to thrive in any phase.
How Does Market Psychology Shape BLX's Price Movements?Hi traders
"How the Psychology of Market Cycles Influences BLX"
The Psychology of a Market Cycle refers to the emotional and behavioral phases investors and traders experience as markets move through different stages, from optimism during bull markets to fear and despair during downturns. Understanding these psychological patterns is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding common pitfalls.
Market cycles are deeply intertwined with investor psychology, and their impact is clearly reflected in indices like BLX, which tracks Bitcoin’s price performance. The emotional phases of optimism, fear, and recovery that characterize market cycles shape the trajectory of BLX in profound ways.
Bull Markets and Euphoria:
In the optimistic and euphoric stages, BLX often experiences significant upward momentum as confidence and greed drive speculative buying. The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) accelerates the rise, pushing BLX to new highs.
Bear Markets and Panic:
When anxiety and denial give way to fear and capitulation, BLX faces sharp declines. Investors overwhelmed by negative sentiment sell off assets, leading to steep corrections in the index.
Recovery and Hope:
As despair subsides and hope emerges, BLX starts to stabilize and climb, driven by early adopters and institutional interest. This phase lays the groundwork for the next market cycle.
Understanding the psychological dynamics behind market cycles can help traders and investors navigate BLX’s fluctuations, make informed decisions, and avoid being swayed by emotional reactions.
Visual A Happy New Year.This visualization transforms price data into a dynamic constellation of interconnected points, moving beyond linear time series analysis to explore hidden dimensions of market behavior. It leverages the human brain's pattern recognition abilities to potentially reveal insights invisible on standard charts.
█ CONCEPTS
This visualization breaks free from the constraints of linear time by connecting data points based on relationships beyond chronological order. This approach allows for the exploration of non-linear patterns and multi-dimensional time series analysis, leveraging the speed of visual information processing in the human brain. It's a demonstration where a logarithm is swinging back and forth sweeping to look for patterns that the lines cross along common frequencies.
█ NEW AVENUES OF OBSERVATION
• Non-Linear Pattern Detection: Identify patterns and correlations invisible on standard charts, such as subtle shifts in market sentiment or recurring motifs signaling trend changes.
• Multi-Dimensional Time Series Analysis: Explore dimensions beyond time, such as volatility, volume, or sentiment, to uncover hidden drivers of market behavior.
• Visual Intuition: Leverage the brain's pattern recognition to intuitively grasp complex market dynamics obscured by traditional methods.
█ THE POTENTIAL OF IMAGINATIVE TOOLING
This visualization demonstrates the power of creative coding with Pine Script and the potential of platforms like TradingView to develop innovative market analysis tools.
█ TECHNICAL INSIGHTS
The focus on visuals stems from the brain's rapid processing of visual information compared to text or numbers, enabling faster pattern and trend identification.
█ QUESTIONS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION
1 — What relationships between data points are visualized (price proximity, volatility, volume, etc.)?
In this case, it's a demonstration where a logarithm is swinging back and forth sweeping to look for patterns that the lines cross along common frequencies.
2 — How can we quantify and automatically detect/classify emerging patterns and clusters?
By measuring when lines cross pivots, distance of points from patterned averages, density between two lines... Many possible ideas.
3 — How can we incorporate additional dimensions to enrich market behavior understanding?
By Trying, by testing, experimenting in ways beyond what you saw before.
█ FUTURE DIRECTIONS
This is a starting point for further research. Continued exploration could lead to sophisticated tools integrating multiple market data dimensions, allowing navigation through a visualized landscape for better predictions and strategies. Imagine a future where traders and analysts can navigate through a 3D visualised landscape of market data with overlapping colours, transparencies, layers indicating correlations, zooming in on specific patterns and lighting up in ways that show us moments of significance that were previously invisible.
█ CALL TO ACTION
Experiment with Pine Script and share your visualizations. Collective creativity and innovation can drive this field forward. Let's explore, experiment, and push the limits of visual thinking together. This visualisation is only one of many starting points, you can find a number of other greet works by browsing through the scripts available on Trading view, I am sharing this as an invitation to think outside the box.
HOW-TO use the Rainbow Indicator? (full guide)Below is a complete instruction on how to use the Rainbow Indicator along with examples. This indicator is an important facet of my decision-making system because it allows me to answer two important questions:
- At what price should I make a trade with the selected shares?
- In what volume?
Part 1: Darts Set
My concept of investing in stocks is buying great companies during a sell-off . Of course, this idea is not unique. One way or another, this was said by the luminaries of value investing – Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. However, the implementation of this concept may vary depending on the preferences of each investor.To find great companies, I use the Fundamental strength indicator , and to plan opening and closing positions I use the Rainbow indicator.
To begin your acquaintance with the Rainbow Indicator, I would like to invite you to take part in a mental experiment. Imagine two small rooms for a game of darts. Each room has a different target hanging in it. It can be anywhere: center, left, right, bottom, or top.
Target #1 from the first room looks like a small red circle.
Target #2 from the second room looks like a larger red circle.
You get a reward for hitting the target, calculated according to the following principle: the smaller the target in relation to the wall surface, the greater the reward you get.
You have 100 darts in your hand, that is 100 attempts to hit the target. For each attempt, you pay $10. So to play this unusual game of darts, you take with you $1,000. Now, the most important condition is that you play in absolute darkness . So you don't know exactly what part of the wall the target is hanging in, so all your years of darts practice don't matter here.
The question is: Which room will you choose?
This is where you begin to think. Since your skills and experience are almost completely untapped in this game, all of your attempts to hit a target will be random. This is a useful observation because it allows you to apply the theory of probability. The password is Jacob Bernoulli. This is the mathematician who derived the formula by which you can calculate the probability of a successful outcome for a limited number of attempts.
In our case, a successful outcome is a dart hitting the target as many times as necessary in order to, at least, not lose anything. In the case of Target #1, it is one hit or more. In the case of Target 2, it is 10 hits or more.
The probability of hitting Target #1 is 1/100 or 1% (since the target area occupies 1% of the wall area).
The probability of hitting Target #2 is 10/100 or 10% (since the target area occupies 10% of the wall area).
The number of attempts is equal to the number of darts - 100.
Now we have all the data to calculate.
So, Bernoulli's formula :
According to this formula:
- The probability of one or more hits on Target #1 is 63% (out of 100%).
- The probability of ten or more hits on Target #2 is 55% (out of 100%).
You may say, "I think we should go to the first room". However, take your time with this conclusion because it is interesting to calculate the probability of not hitting the target even once, i.e., losing $1,000.
We calculate using the same formula:
- The probability of not hitting Target #1 is 37% (out of 100%).
- The probability of not hitting Target #2 is 0.0027% (out of 100%).
If we calculate the ratio of the probability of a successful outcome to the probability of losing the whole amount, we get:
- For the first room = 1.7
- For the second room = 20370
You know, I like the second room better.
This mental experiment reflects my approach to investing in stocks. The first room is an example of a strategy where you try to find the perfect entry point - to buy at a price below which the stock will not fall. The second room reflects an approach where you're not chasing a specific price level, but thinking in price ranges. In both cases, you'll have plenty of attempts, but in the first room, the risk of losing everything is much greater than in the second room.
Now let me show you my target, which is a visual interpretation of the Rainbow Indicator.
It also hangs on the wall, in absolute darkness, and only becomes visible after I have used all the darts. Before the game starts, I announce the color where I want to go. The probability of hitting decreases from blue to green, and then to orange and red. That is, the smaller the color area, the less likely it is to successfully hit the selected color. However, the size of the reward also increases according to the same principle - the smaller the area of color, the greater the reward.
Throwing a dart is an attempt to close a position with a profit.
Hitting the selected color is a position closed with a profit.
Missing the selected color means the position is closed at a loss.
Now imagine that in the absolutely dark room where I am, I have a flashlight. Thanks to it, I have the opportunity to see in which part of the wall the target is located. This gives me a significant advantage because now I throw darts not blindly, but with a precise understanding of where I am aiming. Light shining on the wall increases the probability of a successful outcome, which can also be estimated using the Bernoulli formula.
Let's say I have 100 darts in my hands, that is, one hundred attempts to hit the chosen target. The probability of a dart hitting a red target (without the help of a flashlight) is 10%, and with the help of a flashlight, for example, 15%. That is, my ability to throw darts improves the probability of hitting the target by 5%. For hitting the red target, I get $100, and for each throw I pay $10. In this case, the probability of hitting the red target ten or more times is 94.49% (out of 100%) versus 55% (out of 100%) without a flashlight. In other words, under these game conditions and the assumptions made, if I try all 100 darts, the probability of recouping all my expenses will be 94.49% if I aim only at the red target.
In my decision-making system, such a "flashlight" is the Fundamental strength indicator, dynamics of cash flows, the P/E ratio and the absence of critical news. And the darts set (target and darts) is a metaphor for the Rainbow Indicator. However, please note that all probabilities of positive outcomes are assumptions and are provided only for the purpose of example and understanding of the approach I have chosen. Stocks of public companies are not a guaranteed income instrument, nor are any indicators associated with them.
Part 2: Margin of safety
The idea to create the Rainbow Indicator came to me thanks to the concept of "margin of safety" coined by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated based on financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety". At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology.
So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better.
When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I don’t try to find the coveted intrinsic value/cost, but I try to understand how fundamentally strong the company in front of me is, and how many years it will take to pay off my investment in it.
To decide to buy shares, I use the following sequence of actions:
- Determining fundamental strength of a company and analysis of cash flows using the Fundamental Strength Indicator.
- Analysis of the recoupment period of investments using P/E ratio .
- Analysis of critical news .
- Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator.
To decide to sell shares, I use:
- Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator.
- Or The Rule of Replacement of Stocks in a Portfolio .
- Or Force majeure Position Closing Rule .
Thus, the Rainbow indicator is always used in tandem with other indicators and analysis methods when buying stocks. However, in the case of selling previously purchased shares, I can only use the Rainbow indicator or one of the rules that I will discuss below. Next, we will consider the methodology for calculating the Rainbow Indicator.
Indicator calculation methodology
The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter, a year will mean the last 252 trading days.
Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price.
Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To achieve this, a certain number of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year.
Deviations with a "-" sign from the Lower Rainbow of four colors:
- The Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS.
- The Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS.
- The Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS.
- The Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary.
Deviations with a "+" sign from the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors:
- The Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS.
- The Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS.
- The Green Spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS.
- The Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow has only one boundary.
The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs".
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation.
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach.
Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now.
Because the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made:
- The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about the growth of profits in the companies.
- The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about a decrease in profits in the companies.
- The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the growth of losses in the companies.
- The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the decrease in losses in the companies.
- The higher the company's level of profit, the larger my "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in the event of a transition to a cycle of declining financial results. The corresponding width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "reserve".
- The growth in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to stay in the position longer due to the expansion of the Upper Rainbow.
- A decrease in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to close the position faster due to the narrowing of the Upper Rainbow.
So the Rainbow indicator shows me a price range that can be considered for purchase if all the necessary conditions are met. By being in this price range, my investment will have a certain margin of safety or "margin of safety." It will also tell me when to exit a stock position based on the company's earnings analysis.
Part 3: Crazy Mr. Market
The Fundamental strength of a company influences the long-term price performance of its shares. This is a thesis that I believe in and use in my work. A company that does not live in debt and quickly converts its goods or services into money will be appreciated by the market. This all sounds good, you say, but what should an investor do who needs to decide here and now? Moreover, one has to act in conditions of constant changes in market sentiment. Current talk about the company's excellent prospects can be replaced by a pessimistic view of it literally the next day. Therefore, the stock price chart of any companies, regardless of its fundamental strength, can resemble the chaotic drawings of preschool children.
Working with such uncertainty required me to develop my own attitude towards it. Benjamin Graham's idea of market madness was of invaluable help to me in this. Imagine that the market is your business partner, "Mr. Market". Every day, he comes to your office to check in and offer you a deal with shares of your mutual companies. Sometimes he wants to buy your share, sometimes he intends to sell his. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his intuition. When he is in a panic and afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoria and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. This is how crazy your partner is.
Why is he acting like this? According to Graham, this is how all investors behave who do not understand the real value/cost of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The smart investor's job is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for the next visit from crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stocks at a surprisingly low price, take them and wish him luck. If he begs you to sell him stocks and quotes an unusually high price, sell them and wish him luck. The Rainbow indicator is used to evaluate these two poles.
Now let's look at the conditions of opening and closing a position according to the indicator.
So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The Blue Spectrum is upper regarding the Green Spectrum, and the Green Spectrum is lower regarding the Blue Spectrum, etc.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock.
(*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below).
The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position.
- If the current price is in the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts:
1. If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line.
2.if I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough free finances to purchase the required number of shares (Portfolio Replacement Rule).
3. If I learn of events that pose a real threat to the continued existence of the companies (for example, filing for bankruptcy), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to fall into the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum (Force majeure Position Closing Rule).
So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra.
For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the Blue, Green, and Orange Spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if, for some reason, the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the Green Spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the Green Spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow.
The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio. This allows me to use these two indicators within one indicator.
Returning to the madness of the market, I would like to mention that this is a reality that cannot be fought, but can be used to achieve results. To get a sense of this, I will give an example of one of the stereotypes of an investor who uses fundamental analysis in his work.His thinking might be: If I valued a company on its financial performance and bought it, then I should stay in the position long enough to justify my expenses of analysis. In this way, the investor deliberately deprives himself of flexibility in decision-making. He will be completely at a loss if the financial performance starts to deteriorate rapidly and the stock price starts to decline rapidly. It is surprising that the same condition will occur in the case of a rapid upward price movement. The investor will torment himself with the question "what to do?" because I just bought stocks of this company, expecting to hold them for the long term. It is at moments like these that I'm aware of the value of the Rainbow Indicator. If it is not a force majeure or a Reverse situation, I just wait until the price reaches the Upper Rainbow. Thus, I can close the position in a year, in a month or in a few weeks. I don't have a goal to hold an open position for a long time, but I do have a goal to constantly adhere to the chosen investment strategy.
Part 4: Diversification Ratio
If the price is in the Lower Rainbow range and all other criteria are met, it is a good time to ask yourself, "How many shares to buy?" To answer this question, I need to understand how many companies I plan to invest in. Here I adhere to the principle of diversification - that is, distributing investments between the shares of several companies. What is this for? To reduce the impact of any company on the portfolio as a whole. Remember the old saying: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Like baskets, stocks can fall and companies can file for bankruptcy and leave the exchange. In this regard, diversification is a way to avoid losing capital due to investing in only one company.
How do I determine the minimum number of companies for a portfolio? This amount depends on my attitude towards the capital that I will use to invest in stocks. If I accept the risk of losing 100% of my capital, then I can only invest in one company. It can be said that in this case there is no diversification. If I accept the risk of losing 50% of my capital, then I should invest in at least two companies, and so on. I just divide 100% by the percentage of capital that I can safely lose. The resulting number, rounded to the nearest whole number, is the minimum number of companies for my portfolio.
As for the maximum value, it is also easy to determine. To achieve this, you need to multiply the minimum number of companies by four (this is how many spectra the Lower or Upper Rainbow of the indicator contains). How many companies I end up with in my portfolio will depend on from this set of factors. However, this amount will always fluctuate between the minimum and maximum, calculated according to the principle described above.
I call the maximum possible number of companies in a portfolio the diversification coefficient. It is this coefficient that is involved in calculating the number of shares needed to be purchased in a particular spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. How does this work? Let's go to the indicator settings and fill in the necessary fields for the calculation.
+ Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes
+Cash in - the number of finances deposited into my account
-Cash out - the number of finances withdrawn from my account
+/-Closed Profit/Loss - profit or loss on closed positions
+Dividends - dividends received on the account
-Fees - broker and exchange commission
-Taxes - taxes debited from the account
Diversification coefficient
The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra).
The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded)
Here, I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000.
The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded)
Here, I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares.
After entering all the necessary data, I move on to the checkbox, by checking which I confirm that the company in question has successfully passed all preliminary stages of analysis (Fundamental strength indicator, P/E ratio, critical news). Without the check, the calculation is not performed. This is done intentionally because the use of the Rainbow Indicator for the purpose of purchasing shares is possible only after passing all the preliminary stages. Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left.
Market Capitalization
The value of a company's market capitalization, expressed in the currency of its stock price.
Price / EPS Diluted
Current value of the P/E ratio.
Free cash in portfolio
This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in.
Cash amount for one portion
The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. This depends on the diversification ratio entered. If you divide this value + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes by the diversification coefficient, you get Cash amount for one portion .
Potential portions amount
Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. It can be a fractional number.
Cash amount to buy
The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price.
Shares amount to buy
Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price.
Thus, the diversification ratio is a significant parameter of my stocks' investment strategy. It shows both the limit on the number of companies and the limit on the number of portions for the portfolio. It also participates in calculating the number of finances and shares to purchase at the current price level.
Changing the diversification coefficient is possible already during the process of investing in stocks. If my capital ( + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes ) has changed significantly (by more than Cash amount for one portion ), I always ask myself the same question: "What risk (as a percentage of capital) is acceptable for me now?" If the answer involves a change in the minimum number of companies in the portfolio, then the diversification ratio will also be recalculated. Therefore, the number of finances needed to purchase one portion will also change. We can say that the diversification ratio controls the distribution of finances among my investments.
Part 5: Prioritization and Exceptions to the Rainbow Indicator Rules
When analyzing a company and its stock price using the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the Rainbow Indicator, a situation may arise where all the conditions for buying are met in two or more companies. At the same time, Free cash in the portfolio does not allow me to purchase the required number of portions from different companies. In that case, I need to decide which companies I will give priority to.
To decide, I follow the following rules:
1. Priority is given to companies from the top-tier sector group (how these groups are defined is explained in this article ). That is, the first group prevails over the second, and the second over the third. These companies must also meet the purchase criteria described in Part 2.
2. If after applying the first rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Priority is given to companies that have a fundamental strength of 8 points or higher. They must also be within two points of the leader in terms of fundamental strength. For example, if a leader has a fundamental strength of 12 points, then the range under consideration will be from 12 to 10 points.
3. If, after applying the second rule, two or more companies received priority, I look at which spectrum of the Lower Rainbow the current price of these companies is in. If a company's stock price is on the lower end of the spectrum, I give it priority.
4. If, after applying the third rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the P/E ratio. The Company with the lower P/E ratio gets priority.
After applying these four rules, I get the company with the highest priority. This is the company that wins the fight for my investment. To figure out the next priority to buy, I repeat this process over and over again to use up all the money I have allocated for investing in stocks.
The second part of the guide mentioned two rules that I use when deciding whether to close positions:
- The Rule for replacing shares in a portfolio.
- Force majeure position closure Rule.
They take priority over the Rainbow Indicator. This means that the position may be closed even if the Rainbow indicator does not signal this. Let's consider each rule separately.
Portfolio stock replacement Rule
Since company stocks are not an asset with a guaranteed return, I can get into a situation where the position is open for a long time without an acceptable financial result. That is, the price of the company's shares is not growing, and the Rainbow indicator does not signal the need to sell shares. In this case, I can replace the problematic companies with a new one. The criteria for a problem company are:
- 3 months have passed since the position was opened.
- Fundamental strength below 5 points.
- The width of both rainbows decreased during the period of holding the position.
To identify a new company that will take the place of the problematic one, I use the prioritization principle from this section. At the same time, I always consider this possibility as an option. The thing is that frequently replacing stocks in my portfolio is not a priority for me and is seen as a negative action. A new company would have to have really outstanding parameters for me to take advantage of this option.
Force majeure position closure Rule
If my portfolio contains stocks of a company that has critical news, then I can close the position without using the Rainbow Indicator. How to determine whether this news is critical or not is described in this article .
Part 6: Examples of using the indicator
Let’s consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA).
September 02, 2022:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me).
Current price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share.
October 14, 2022:
NVDA's stock price has moved into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me).
Current price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share.
January 23, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock passes through the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the Orange Spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the Orange Spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares.
January 27, 2023:
NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock.
February 02, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock moves into the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed.
As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only based on the Rainbow Indicator.
As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA).
November 01, 2017:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me).
Current price - $62.26 (is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion.
To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26.
August 8, 2018:
PZZA's share price has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me).
Current price - $38.94 (is in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased.
October 31, 2018:
PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow Red Spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum, there is no closing part of the position.
February 01, 2019:
After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company).
March 27, 2019:
PZZA's stock price passes the green and Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%).
Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company.
In conclusion of this instruction, I would like to remind you once again that any investment is associated with risk. Therefore, make sure that you understand all the nuances of the indicators before using them.
Mandatory requirements for using the indicator:
- Works only on a daily timeframe.
- The indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies.
- Quarterly income statements for the last year are required.
- An acceptable for your P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase.
- The Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong.
What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator?
- Clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics.
- Shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position.
- Considers the principle of gradual increase and decrease in a position.
- Allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased.
- Shows the current value of the P/E ratio.
- Shows the current capitalization of the company.
Risk disclaimer
When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Before the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning.
The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying, considering the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
41-Day Sentiment mastery missionGM WARRIORS
I'm on a mission to master the SuperTrend indicator by testing all 42 combinations of its key settings: Factor, ATR (Average True Range), and Time Periods.
Each day, I’ll backtest 50 trades on a new combination to refine a 15-minute day trading system, focusing on trend precision and market sentiment. The combinations include:
21 Factors (2.0 to 4.0 in 0.1 increments).
2 Timeframes (15M and 30M).
Goal: Identify the optimal SuperTrend configuration, master early trend reversals, and sharpen market insights within a month.
Results will be shared daily via a public sheet and incorporated into my ongoing SuperTrend study. If you’d like updates, let me know, and I’ll tag you in this journey!
📊 Progress Sheet: docs.google.com
📘 SuperTrend Study: docs.google.com
Transform Your Trading with WiseOwl - Free Edition! Take a look at Hedera's chart—and YES, this was spotted with WiseOwl Free Edition ! 🎯
🔍 What makes it powerful?
🔥 **Entry signals** that help time the market for you
🟢 **Bullish/Bearish backgrounds** for instant clarity
📊 **EMAs** to analyze trends like a pro
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HOW-TO: Connect Indicators to the PSE, Practical Strategy EngineThis is a detailed video of how to connect your indicator(s) to the PSE, Practical Strategy Engine via the "Connection Indicator for the PSE".
Note:
The video shows the "PSE, Practical Strategy Engine" as "PSE".
The video shows the "Connection Indicator for the PSE" as "Connection Ind for PSE".
Copyright © 2024 CoinOperator LLC
Catch Big Reversals Like a Pro Using the GOLDEN RSIHow to Catch Market Tops and Bottoms Using the GOLDEN RSI Indicator
Trading market reversals can feel like a daunting task. But what if you had a secret weapon to help you identify tops, bottoms, and potential reversals with ease? Enter the GOLDEN RSI Indicator—a custom-built tool designed to revolutionize your trading strategy. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to leverage this powerful indicator to spot reversal trades like a seasoned pro.
What is the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
The GOLDEN RSI builds on the traditional RSI (Relative Strength Index) by adding optimized zones and visual signals that highlight potential bullish and bearish reversals. Unlike the standard RSI, which requires subjective interpretation, this indicator provides precise entry and exit signals by visually marking key market conditions.
How to Use the GOLDEN RSI to Catch Market Reversals?
Understand the Key Zones:
Overbought Zone (Above 80): Signals a potential market top or reversal from bullish to bearish.
Oversold Zone (Below 20): Indicates a potential market bottom or reversal from bearish to bullish.
Neutral Zone (60-40): Consolidation phase where trends are less decisive.
Spotting Bullish Reversals
When the RSI dips into the oversold zone (below 20) and begins to reverse upward, the GOLDEN RSI will highlight a Bull signal. This suggests a potential upward move, ideal for long trades.
Pro Tip: Look for confirmation with price action, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a break of resistance.
Spotting Bearish Reversals
When the RSI climbs into the overbought zone (above 80) and starts to turn down, the GOLDEN RSI will mark a Bear signal. This indicates a potential downward move, perfect for short trades.
Pro Tip: Combine with chart patterns like double tops or bearish engulfing candles to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
The Hidden Power of Divergences
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs. This signals potential bearish momentum.
The GOLDEN RSI visualizes divergences clearly, so you can spot them effortlessly.
Use Risk Management Tools
Set stop-loss levels below recent swing lows (for bullish trades) or above recent swing highs (for bearish trades).
Use risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2 to maximize your profit potential.
Real Trade Example Using GOLDEN RSI
In the SPX 15-minute chart above, the GOLDEN RSI accurately identified:
A Bearish Reversal near the market top, as the RSI entered overbought territory and started to fall.
A Bullish Reversal as the RSI dipped into the oversold zone and recovered upward.
These signals allowed for precise entry points, minimizing risk and maximizing rewards.
Why the GOLDEN RSI is a Game-Changer
Unlike generic RSI tools, the GOLDEN RSI is designed with traders in mind. It eliminates the guesswork by providing visual cues for market reversals. Whether you’re trading stocks, indices, or crypto, this indicator is a must-have in your toolkit.
How to Get the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
Want to try it for yourself? Head over to TradingView and add the GOLDEN RSI Indicator to your chart. Use it alongside your favorite price action strategies to take your trading to the next level.
Conclusion
Reversals can make or break a trader’s portfolio. By mastering the GOLDEN RSI, you can confidently spot market tops, bottoms, and reversals with precision. Start using this custom indicator today and watch your trading results improve dramatically!
Don’t forget to like, share, and follow me on TradingView for more tutorials like this one. Let’s catch those reversals together!
How to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading
In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading.
You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals.
First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal.
While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones.
One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily . So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern.
One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns.
I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle.
Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then.
Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling.
Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout.
When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel.
It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel.
Its support will represent a strong vertical structure, from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections.
Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months.
A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement.
Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action.
One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous.
In such a price action, the level of the last higher low is a very significant point.
The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH.
It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend.
After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement.
If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend.
That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low.
Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross.
Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length.
The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA.
It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend.
On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed
The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold.
While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change.
Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Master High-Probability Breakouts with the GOLDEN Trading SystemWelcome to the GOLDEN Trading System (GTS) – a custom-designed strategy tailored for traders seeking high-probability breakout opportunities. Built on the foundation of TradingView's powerful indicators, GTS focuses on leveraging Camarilla Pivot Levels (H3-H4 and L3-L4) to spot and act on potential market trends. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this system simplifies the complexity of technical analysis, giving you an edge in the markets.
Core Elements of the Strategy.
1. Key Levels to Watch:
Green Band (H3-H4):
Represents a resistance zone where bullish breakouts are likely to occur. A confirmed breakout above H4 often leads to a strong upward trend.
Red Band (L3-L4):
Acts as a support zone, signaling potential bearish moves when broken. A confirmed breakdown below L4 generally triggers a downward trend.
2. The Breakout Concept:
When the price crosses either of these bands, it indicates a potential shift in market dynamics:
Bullish Breakout: Price breaks above the Green Band, suggesting buyers have gained control.
Bearish Breakout: Price breaks below the Red Band, signaling sellers have the upper hand.
Why This Strategy Works?
High Probability: Camarilla Pivot Levels are widely respected by traders, making breakouts from these zones more reliable.
Trend Confirmation: The system minimizes false signals by focusing on specific breakout levels instead of broader zones.
Clear Entry/Exit Points: You can easily determine when to enter a trade and set stop-loss or take-profit levels.
How to Use the GOLDEN Trading System?
Identify the Bands: Look for the Green Band (H3-H4) and Red Band (L3-L4) on your chart.
Watch for Breakouts:
Enter a long position when the price closes decisively above the Green Band (H4).
Enter a short position when the price closes decisively below the Red Band (L4).
Manage Your Risk:
Use the opposite band (L3 or H3) as a stop-loss level to protect your trade.
Consider trailing your stop-loss as the trend progresses.
Add Confirmation: For greater accuracy, combine this strategy with other tools such as volume spikes, candlestick patterns, or higher timeframe trend analysis.
Case Study Example:
Take a closer look at the chart provided:
The price broke below the Red Band (L3-L4), confirming a bearish breakout.
Post-breakout, the price continued its downtrend, offering a high-reward opportunity for short-sellers.
By adhering to the system's clear breakout rules, you could have entered the trade early and capitalized on the trend with confidence.
Benefits of the GOLDEN Trading System:
Simplicity: Focuses on straightforward rules, making it beginner-friendly.
Consistency: Reduces emotional trading by adhering to defined breakout zones.
Scalability: Works across multiple timeframes and markets, including indices, stocks, and commodities.
Pro Tip for Advanced Traders:
Combine GTS with volume analysis, RSI divergence, or moving averages to add layers of confirmation to your trades. This helps filter out false breakouts and improves your win rate.
Join the GTS movement and elevate your trading game today! Share your feedback, results, and tweaks to make the strategy even better. Happy trading! 🚀
Stock Market Logic Series #12
TradingView is so awesome that they let you change any piece of the chart .
You can use this chart template for visual clarity.
FYI, all my chart templates, are for visual clarity trading purposes, you can choose anyone that looks good for your eyes.
So in this chapter in the series #12 lets see what we have here.
1 - The trendline is still alive.
2 - On the correction, you can see that there is a high volume on the upside. So it means that the puppet master is buying.
3 - You could see that there are 3 down candles, on increasing volume, but their spread is smaller and smaller. So it means that the puppet master also buying on the downside, also, stops where hit there strongly, and many people stopped out directly into the hands of the puppet master, classic puppet master move.
4 - The biggest volume is on the up side ! since this is the last (recent) piece of information, this is what counts! so currently, the chart is LONG biased.
5 - Crack pattern AWARENESS- if the price will test the low, it will be the crack pattern and then the price can go down up until $105 again. It will also be a break of trendline so it makes sense that there will be a fast SHORT move. But if the price goes to test $135 and then makes $140 push, it will be a failure of the crack pattern, which increases even more dramatically the LONG bias. WHY? Because if it is short... the crack pattern should materialize... since it can't materialize... it means it is not short, so it is LONG.
####
I already showed the same exact logic, in AMD, failed crack pattern (in the past posts).
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2 & 3 & 4 Examplify beautifully my concept of FORCE of the puppet master.
What Indicators Do Traders Use for Scalping? What Indicators Do Traders Use for Scalping?
Scalping is a fast-paced trading style where traders aim to take advantage of small price movements within short timeframes. Such traders often rely on technical indicators to make quick decisions. This article explores some of the most popular scalping indicators, providing insights into how they can help traders spot opportunities in fast-moving markets.
Understanding Scalping Indicators
As you know, scalping is a trading strategy where traders aim to take advantage of small price movements by executing numerous trades within short timeframes, often closing trades within a few minutes. This approach requires swift decision-making and precise timing.
Technical indicators are essential tools in this context, as they provide real-time data and insights into market trends, momentum, and volatility. Using these indicators, traders can identify optimal entry and exit points, potentially enhancing their ability to navigate the rapid pace of the market.
Below, we’ll break down five indicators for scalping. You’ll find these scalping indicators in MT4 and MT5, TradingView. Also, you can get started in seconds with FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform.
Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are considered by some to be the best indicator for scalping, smoothing out price data to help identify trends by calculating the average price over a specific period. In scalping, where quick decisions are crucial, certain types of moving averages can be useful.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Unlike the Simple Moving Average (SMA), which assigns equal weight to all data points, the EMA gives more significance to recent prices, making it more responsive to current market movements. This responsiveness is advantageous for scalpers. For instance, a 9-period EMA reacts swiftly to recent price changes, potentially providing timely signals for entry and exit points.
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Developed by Alan Hull, the HMA further reduces lag and enhances smoothness compared to traditional moving averages. It achieves this by weighting recent prices more heavily and using a unique calculation method. The HMA's ability to closely follow price action while minimising lag makes it a valuable indicator for scalpers.
Applying Moving Averages in Scalping
- Crossover Strategy: Scalpers often use two EMAs of different lengths to identify potential trading opportunities. A common approach involves a fast EMA (e.g., 5-period) and a slow EMA (e.g., 15-period). When the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, it may indicate a bullish trend, suggesting a potential buying opportunity or a chance to close a short trade. Conversely, when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA, it may signal a bearish trend, indicating a potential selling opportunity or moment to close a long trade.
- Trend Confirmation: The EMA and HMA can be used to confirm trends identified by other indicators. For example, if the moving average is sloping upwards, it may confirm an uptrend, supporting decisions to enter long positions. If it's sloping downwards, it may confirm a downtrend, supporting decisions to enter short positions.
You can find these scalping indicators in TradingView and FXOpen’s TickTrader platform.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a well-known scalping indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, oscillating between 0 and 100. Traditionally, an RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while below 30 suggests oversold conditions.
In scalping, traders often adjust the RSI from its typical length of 14 to shorter periods, such as 7 or 9, to capture rapid price swings occurring over minutes. This adjustment makes the RSI more sensitive to recent price changes, providing timely signals for quick trades.
Applying RSI in Scalping
- Overbought/Oversold Levels: When the RSI moves beyond 70 or drops below 30, traders watch for potential reversal points. However, scalpers may focus on the RSI’s movement back into the 30-70 range as an early sign of momentum shifting.
- Divergences: Scalpers also look for divergence between price movement and the RSI. For example, if the price reaches a new high but the RSI does not, it may signal a weakening trend and possible reversal. This divergence can be an effective tool for anticipating quick market shifts.
- Midpoint (50 Level): The 50 level serves as a midpoint, indicating the balance between gains and losses. An RSI crossing above 50 may suggest bullish momentum, while dropping below 50 can indicate bearish momentum. Scalpers use this midpoint to assess the prevailing market trend.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool comprising three lines: a simple moving average (SMA) in the middle, with upper and lower bands set at a specified number of standard deviations from the SMA. These bands expand and contract based on market volatility, providing a visual representation of price fluctuations.
In scalping, traders often adjust Bollinger Bands to shorter timeframes, such as 1-minute or 5-minute charts, to capture quick price movements. A common approach involves setting the SMA period to 7-10 and the standard deviation to 1.5-2, potentially enhancing sensitivity to short-term market changes.
Applying Bollinger Bands in Scalping:
- Bollinger Squeeze: When the bands contract, indicating low volatility, it often precedes significant price movements. Scalpers watch for a breakout above or below the SMA to identify potential trading opportunities.
- Reversal: Price breaching the upper band may suggest overbought conditions, while below the lower band may indicate oversold conditions. Scalpers use these signals to anticipate potential price reversals.
Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that compares an asset’s closing price to its price range over a specific period, typically 14. It includes the %K line, the current closing price relative to the range, and the %D line, a moving average of %K. The scale runs from 0 to 100, where readings over 80 suggest overbought levels, and those under 20 point to oversold levels.
In scalping, traders may adjust the Stochastic Oscillator to shorter settings, such as 5,3,3, to increase sensitivity to rapid price movements. This adjustment can help in capturing short-term market fluctuations.
Applying the Stochastic Oscillator in Scalping:
- Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the %K line crosses the %D line in the overbought (above 80) or oversold (below 20) zones, it can signal a potential reversal. Scalpers use these crossovers as quick alerts for shifts in momentum, helping them to act swiftly in volatile markets.
- Crossovers: Besides extreme conditions, traders also monitor crossovers between %K and %D. A %K line crossing above %D from a lower level can suggest an upward move, while a downward crossover may hint at a short-term price decline.
- Divergence: If the price makes a new high/low but the Stochastic Oscillator does not, it may signal a weakening trend, indicating a potential reversal.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is considered one of the top forex indicators for scalping. It’s a momentum indicator that reflects the relationship between two moving averages. It comprises the MACD line (the difference between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages), the signal line (a 9-period EMA of the MACD line), and a histogram, which illustrates the gap between the two lines.
Scalpers prefer to adjust these settings to 3, 10, and 16, respectively, to make the MACD more responsive to rapid price movements.
Applying MACD in Scalping:
- Crossovers: When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it may indicate bullish momentum; a crossover below suggests bearish momentum. Scalpers monitor these crossovers to identify potential entry and exit points.
- Histogram Analysis: The histogram represents the difference between the MACD and signal lines. An expanding histogram indicates strengthening momentum, while a contracting histogram reflects weakening momentum. Scalpers use these changes to gauge the intensity of price movements.
- Divergences: A divergence occurs when the price moves in one direction while the MACD line moves in the opposite. For example, if the price reaches a new low but the MACD does not, it may reflect a potential upward reversal. Scalpers watch for such divergences to anticipate shifts in market direction.
Combining Indicators for Scalping Strategies
Combining multiple indicators can enhance scalping strategies by providing a more comprehensive view of market conditions. Each indicator offers unique insights, and their combined use can help filter out false signals and confirm trading opportunities. Here are some pairings:
- EMA and RSI: Utilising the Exponential Moving Average to identify trend direction alongside the Relative Strength Index to gauge momentum can help traders confirm the strength of a trend before making decisions. For instance, if the EMA indicates an uptrend and the RSI is above 50, it may suggest strong bullish momentum.
- Bollinger Bands and Stochastic Oscillator: Bollinger Bands measure volatility, while the Stochastic Oscillator identifies overbought or oversold conditions. When prices touch the upper or lower bands and the Stochastic Oscillator reflects overbought or oversold conditions, it may indicate potential reversal points.
- MACD and RSI: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) highlights momentum changes, and the RSI indicates overbought and oversold conditions. Using them together can help confirm potential entry or exit points. For example, if the MACD shows bullish momentum and the RSI is rising but not yet overbought, it may signal a buying opportunity.
Common Challenges When Using Indicators in Scalping
Scalping with indicators offers valuable insights, but there are some challenges traders should be aware of:
- False Signals: Rapid market movements can trigger misleading signals, causing traders to act prematurely.
- Overtrading: Relying too heavily on short-term indicators can lead to excessive trades, increasing transaction costs.
- Market Noise: High volatility and frequent price fluctuations can make it difficult to distinguish genuine trends from random market "noise."
- Lagging Indicators: Some indicators may react too slowly, causing traders to miss opportunities.
The Bottom Line
Scalping requires quick decisions and the right tools, and indicators like the EMA, RSI, and MACD can help traders navigate fast-moving markets. Found the best scalping indicator that suits your style? Open an FXOpen account to access four advanced trading platforms and start building your scalping strategy today with low-cost, high-speed trading conditions.
FAQ
What Is the 1-Minute Scalp Strategy?
The 1-minute scalp strategy involves making rapid trades on a 1-minute chart. Traders look for small price movements and enter multiple trades within a short period, often using scalp trading indicators like the EMA or RSI for quick signals.
What Is the 5-Minute Scalping Strategy?
The 5-minute scalping strategy focuses on capturing short-term price movements on a 5-minute chart. Traders typically combine trend and momentum indicators, like the MACD and Bollinger Bands, to make fast, informed decisions.
Which Stocks Are Good for Scalping?
The choice depends on the trader’s risk tolerance, trading approach, experience, and toolkit. However, according to theory, stocks with high liquidity, tight spreads, and significant daily volume are good for scalping. Popular choices include tech giants like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA), as they offer frequent price fluctuations. But at the same time, they bear higher risks.
What Is the Best EMA for Scalping?
There is no best exponential moving average for scalping. However, traders often use a pair of EMAs, such as a 9- or 5-period and 21- or 15-period, to quickly respond to price changes in scalping. These EMAs help identify trend direction and momentum.
How Can You Use RSI for Scalping?
In scalping, the RSI is often set to shorter periods, like 7 or 9, to catch signals quickly. Traders watch for the RSI to cross key levels (30 or 70) and form a divergence with a price chart to spot potential reversals.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
Example of Interpretation of USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D
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Trading Strategy
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(USDT 1D chart)
USDT is a stable coin that has a great influence on the coin market.
Therefore, the gap decline of USDT is likely to have a negative impact on the coin market.
Since the gap decline means that funds have flowed out of the coin market, it can be interpreted that funds have currently flowed out through USDT.
(USDC 1D chart)
USDC cannot help but have a lower influence on the coin market than USDT.
The reason is that USDC markets are not operated in all exchanges around the world.
In other words, USDC can be seen as having limitations compared to USDT as an American investment capital.
Therefore, the gap increase of USDT is likely to have a short-term impact on the coin market.
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(BTC.D 1D chart)
You can refer to BTC dominance to choose which side (BTC, Alts) to trade in the coin market.
Since the rise in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated on BTC, it can be interpreted that Alts are likely to gradually move sideways or show a downward trend.
For this interpretation to be meaningful, USDT dominance must show a downward trend.
(USDT.D 1D chart)
Because the decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
Therefore, if USDT dominance rises, it may be a good idea to pause all trading and take a look at the situation.
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You can roughly figure out whether funds are flowing into or out of the coin market with USDT and USDC.
You can roughly figure out which direction the funds in the actual coin market are moving with BTC dominance and USDT dominance.
As I am writing this, BTC dominance is rising and USDT dominance is falling, so it is better to trade BTC rather than Alts.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Example of how to trade without chart analysis
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Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
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Since the coin market can be traded 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, gaps do not occur as often as in the stock market.
(However, gaps may occur frequently in exchanges with low trading volume.)
In any case, I think that these movements provide considerable usefulness in conducting transactions.
Sometimes I told you to buy when the price drops by -10% or more.
Today, I will tell you why.
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In order to trade, you must have basic knowledge of charts.
Otherwise, you are likely to conduct transactions incorrectly due to volatility.
However, such cases are less common in the coin market than in the stock market.
One of the reasons is that the current coins (tokens) are not being used for actual business purposes.
So, I think there are quite a few issues that cause volatility other than charts like stocks.
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If the price falls one day and falls by about -10% from the high before a new candle is created, I buy.
The next day, if it falls by about -10% from the high again, I buy again.
When it falls by about -10% like this, I continue to buy in installments.
That's why I need to adjust my investment ratio.
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If I buy like that, there will come a point where my price rises more than the average unit price.
In that case, when I'm making a profit, I sell the amount corresponding to the purchase principal in installments and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
If you want cash profit, you can sell a certain portion in installments.
Also, on the contrary, when it rises by about +10%, we proceed with a split sale.
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As shown in the example chart, you can see that there are not many cases where it rises by -10% or +10%.
However, since it occurs more often in the case of altcoins than in BTC or ETH, you should pay special attention to adjusting your investment ratio when trading altcoins.
That is why you must check the price fluctuation range 1-3 hours before a new candle is created on the 1D chart.
This method is a method that can be traded even if you lack knowledge about charts.
If you let go of your greed a little and have the ability to split sell when you are making a profit, you will be able to meet the moment when a crisis becomes an opportunity.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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A big picture analysis of stock trends within a sectorThis kind of analysis helps in picking right stocks like the big boys do.
The chart above showcases the normalized EMA lines of all stocks within the Consumer Services sector. By utilizing EMA(moving averages) lines instead of stock prices, we can observe a smoother and clearer representation of price movements across various stocks.
On the left side of the chart, the upper half displays the price chart of Marriott International (MAR), while the bottom half illustrates a custom candlestick chart composed of approximately 25 stocks within the Consumer Services sector. This sector chart reveals a striking similarity to MAR's price movement, despite MAR's relatively small 6% weightage in the sector calculation.
A closer examination of the EMA lines on the right side of the chart reveals that most stocks within the sector have exhibited similar price movement, underscoring the high correlation among these stocks. This phenomenon of similar price movement suggests that stocks within a sector tend to move in tandem, offering valuable insights for sector-based trading strategies.
Few EMA lines(stocks) are flat or went down and most other stocks went up in line with the sector. Investors who invested in those uptrending stocks will take profits while the ones who invested in those non performing stocks would lose out on the profitable opportunity that created by sector up movement.
Stay tuned for my next update, where I'll reveal how to use performance lines beside sector chart to uncover top-performing stocks within the sector that outshine their average-returning peers.
What's your take on this sector-wide correlation? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Festive Learning: Using the MACD to Determine a TrendIn previous posts within this series, we have covered, Bollinger Bands and moving averages, where we’ve shown how each technique can help determine the trending condition of an asset. If you haven’t already, please look back at our timeline to view these posts.
Now we want to look at another trending indicator, which can help to provide a quick and easy read of the current trend. This is called the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator, or MACD for short.
The MACD uses 12 and 26 day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are the default settings within the Pepperstone charting system.
Exponential averages differ from simple moving averages as they place greater emphasis on the latest closing data for a particular instrument. This goes someway to try and overcome the issue of averages being lagging in nature.
By giving the latest closing levels greater importance within the exponential calculation, these averages can turn more quickly than a simple average, to reflect price direction changes earlier.
What is the MACD and How Does it Use Moving Averages?
The MACD uses 12 and 26 day EMAs and measures the gap between the two.
This is important as the 12 day EMA will follow the price action of an instrument more closely than the 26 day EMA.
Meaning, as prices rise above the averages in an uptrend, the gap between the shorter and longer term EMA increases in a positive way.
While in a downtrend as price falls below the 2 declining averages, the gap increases in a negative way.
Let’s look further at the daily chart of AUDUSD and add the MACD indicator to see how this works in practice.
The blue line of the indicator shows the gap between the 2 exponential moving averages, while the red line is a 9 day moving average of the indicator line.
What Does the MACD Show, and How Can We Use This to Help Within Our Day to Day Trading?
It’s a trending indicator, so we use it to confirm the trending condition of an instrument, but we also use it to help us decide if whether our sentiment towards that instrument should be positive or negative.
There are 4 possible signals we can highlight by using the MACD.
These are,
• an aggressive uptrend,
• an aggressive downtrend,
• a correction within an uptrend
• a correction within a downtrend.
An Aggressive Uptrend Signal.
This is where the rising MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) is above zero and above its own average.
This reflects the 12 day EMA being above the 26 day EMA, and the gap between the two averages is increasing, as the price of an instrument moves higher.
This set-up reflects when sentiment should be positive towards an instrument, as the potential is that the current uptrend could continue.
Aggressive Downtrend Signal
The aggressive downtrend signal is when the MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) is falling below both zero and its own average.
This reflects where the declining 12 day EMA is falling below the declining 26 day EMA, as both averages track the declining price of an instrument.
This can highlight when sentiment should be negative towards an instrument because the current downtrend may extend further.
But what about consolidation signals?
Consolidation Within an Uptrend
A consolidation within an uptrend can develop when the MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) while still above zero has crossed below its own moving average (re line on the MACD chart).
This is not a negative signal because the MACD line is still above zero suggesting an uptrend is currently in place, but it highlights a reaction to the recent price strength is appearing and that a possible consolidation within the uptrend may materialise.
It can suggest a period where we may wish to close any long positions in the instrument at this point and revert to the sidelines, as a downside correction could be due.
We would then look for the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) to either break below zero to suggest a downtrend is now evident, or the more aggressive uptrend to resume if the MACD line breaks back above its own average.
Consolidation Within a Downtrend
A consolidation within a downtrend is seen when the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) is still below zero but has crossed above its own moving average (red line on MACD chart).
Here, we may want to close any potential short positions, as a potential upside recovery may be developing.
This is not a positive signal because the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) is still below zero highlighting a downtrend is still in play, but suggests a reaction to recent price weakness is materialising and that a recovery is possible within the on-going downtrend.
We would then look for the MACD line to either break above zero to suggest an uptrend for the instrument could be starting, or for prices to resume their downside moves and for the MACD line to break under its own average (red line on MACD chart) to highlight the more aggressive downtrend is still dominating.
We can use these signals to either initiate outright trades, or to help us gauge the trending set-up within any instrument at any given time.
The MACD indicator could then be combined with other techniques to help time trade entry within the direction of the confirmed trend, which we hope to cover in future posts.
So, in recent weeks we have looked at various techniques and indicators to help us gauge the trending condition of an asset at any given time.
Each can be used either on their own or in combination with the other and price patterns, but we’re sure you will find them very useful to incorporate within your own analysis and trading.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Season's Greetings and Holiday Trading Tips from OakleyJM.As we approach the festive season, I wanted to take a moment to wish all my followers a very Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! This time of year brings joy, celebration, and some unique challenges for traders. Here’s a guide to help you navigate the markets during the holidays and set yourself up for success in 2025.
Challenges of Holiday Trading
Reduced Liquidity: Many traders and institutional investors take time off during the holidays, resulting in lower trading volumes. This can lead to increased volatility and wider bid-ask spreads.
Unexpected Volatility: With fewer participants in the market, price movements can be more unpredictable. Sudden news events or economic data releases can cause significant swings.
Market Hours and Closures: Different markets may have shortened trading hours or be closed on certain days. It’s essential to know the trading schedules to avoid unexpected interruptions.
Year-End Rebalancing: Institutional investors may engage in portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting, which can lead to unusual market activity.
Tips for Trading Over the Holidays
Plan Ahead: Be aware of the holiday trading schedules for the markets you’re involved in. Adjust your trading plan to accommodate potential closures and shortened hours.
Manage Risk: Given the increased volatility, it’s crucial to manage your risk carefully. Consider using tighter stop-loss orders and reducing position sizes.
Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and economic data releases, as these can have an outsized impact on low-liquidity markets.
Use Limit Orders: To avoid the pitfalls of wider bid-ask spreads, use limit orders to ensure you get the price you want.
Focus on Liquidity: Trade assets that are likely to have higher liquidity even during the holidays, such as major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks.
Review Your Strategy: The end of the year is a great time to review your trading strategy, analyse your performance, and set goals for the upcoming year.
Looking Ahead
As we celebrate this festive season, it’s also an excellent time to reflect on the past year and look forward to new opportunities in 2025. The markets may present unique challenges during the holidays, but with careful planning and risk management, you can navigate them successfully.
May your holidays be filled with joy, and may the New Year bring you prosperity and successful trading!
Warm wishes, OakleyJM.
DJI Hits Weekly Support: What's Next? - Market Breadth AnalysisThe DJI has recently declined as previously predicted and has now completed a CHoCH (Change of Character), signaling a bearish trend. The index has reached a significant weekly support zone around the 42,500 level (🟩 marked by the green box).
So, what’s next? 🤔
Looking at the H1 chart, we notice some interesting market breadth outlook:
- US30 Market Breadth EMA20 Indicator:
The EMA histogram has shifted from 🟩 green to 🟨 yellow, indicating an increasing number of stocks with strong bullish momentum.
However, the height of the histogram (yellow) bars 📉 is decreasing, suggesting that the overall number of stocks with strong bullish momentum is also diminishing.
- Market Breadth MACD Indicator:
The 🔴 red line (representing strongly bearish stocks) is clearly declining, showing a reduction in the number of stocks with strong downward momentum.
Meanwhile, the 🔵 blue line is increasing significantly, suggesting that many stocks are reversing upward even within a bearish momentum.
The 🟢 green line, which represents strongly bullish stocks, is climbing but still lacks the strength to signal a decisive shift. A significant breakout would require the green line to rise further, confirming a stronger bullish momentum across a larger number of stocks.
- Market Breadth EMA Alignment:
The 🔴 red line crossed above the 🟢 green line quite some time ago and continues to widen. This suggests that a bullish crossover (green crossing above red) is unlikely in the near term. A confirmed bullish signal would require the green line to overtake the red line again.
- Summary:
While there are early signs of potential reversal, the bullish momentum is not yet strong enough to suggest a significant upward breakout. It’s crucial to monitor whether the 🟢 green line in the MACD and US30 Market Breadth EMA20 indicators can rise substantially, indicating a larger number of stocks gaining solid bullish momentum.
⚠️ Until then, the uptrend remains weak, and caution is warranted. While DJI might retest previous highs, breaking past those highs to form new all-time highs seems challenging at this point.
Strategy: Given the current conditions, it might be more advantageous to look for shorting opportunities. 📉
Stock Market Logic Series #11If you are not adding the pre-and-after-hours of trading on your chart, you don't actually see the full picture of your trading analysis.
A lot of times, the market makers will push the price on the pre/after-hours times on a light volume, and will define the true low or high of the day, where you could have gotten inside with a much better price and stop placement, so when the trading hours starts, you don't feel lost that you don't have a close risk point to put your stop at.
Also, in those outside-hours, you can clearly see a much more sensible picture where the trendlines are much more clear and it is clear what the price is doing.
Also, I don't even talk about when EARNINGS are happening... and there is a high chance for gap to happen in one direction or the other.
After a gap happens, if you only look on the trading hours, you have only the information of the first 5 min of the day so you have some estimation of what could be the high or low of the day, but looking at the pre-market you could see what are the possible true high or low of the day, which is completely different.
Also, after a gap happens, your indicators are "wrong", since they miss information.
As you go into a higher frame this becomes less important, but still... some crazy huge moves start in the pre/after-hours and the price just never comes back, it just flies to the moon. So why not position yourself at a better price with better stop placement?
The logic behind it, is that if BIG money wants a stock badly... he will buy it whenever it is possible and available before the other BIG money will snatch it from it...
Look how clear price action looks in this chart:
The Two Archetypes of TradersIn the trading world, markets move in cycles, and bearish conditions are no exception. Here's an educational breakdown of how traders can navigate these challenging times:
1. The Long-Term Holders (Investors)
Mindset: Patience is their superpower.
Goal: Accumulate assets during bearish trends by buying at key support levels and holding for future gains.
Approach: Use the WiseOwl Indicator to identify areas of strong support and potential accumulation zones for strategic entries.
2. The Intraday Traders (Short-Term)
Mindset: Adaptability and precision are crucial.
Goal: Profit from short-term price movements, capitalizing on market volatility.
Approach: Utilize the WiseOwl Indicator to pinpoint bearish momentum for short entries and clear exit levels, ensuring optimal risk management.
Educational Example: WiseOwl Strategy in Action
Let’s analyze Solana (SOL) on the 15-minute timeframe during a bearish market:
Trend Identification: The WiseOwl Indicator highlights a confirmed downtrend with clear bearish signals.
Entry Points: Short trade signals are generated at moments of significant bearish momentum.
Risk Management: Stop loss and take profit levels, calculated using ATR-based logic, ensure disciplined trading.
Takeaways for Traders
📉 Bearish Markets:
Holders focus on identifying value areas for accumulation.
Intraday traders capitalize on market volatility with precise entries and exits.
Happy trading! 🚀
#WiseOwlIndicator #TradingEducation #BearMarket #SOLAnalysis #CryptoTrading






















