The reaction to the Supply Zone is the keyOn this chart, you can see that the topping signal and the formation of a fresh Supply Zone (highlighted in red) initially resulted in only a temporary shallow pullback. However, this pullback did not indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Instead, the market quickly resumed its upward momentum, as evidenced by the appearance of another "Buy re-test" signal shortly after.
This is a great example of how a topping signal—which might typically indicate potential exhaustion—can sometimes act as merely a pause in a strong uptrending market, rather than leading to a significant reversal. The trend continued higher as buyers re-established control, with subsequent key supports holding firmly to reinforce bullish strength.
Key takeaway: Topping signals and Supply Zones should be evaluated within the broader context of the market's trend. In this case, the bulls demonstrated sustained dominance despite the brief pause, confirming the uptrend's resilience.
X-indicator
Market Analysis: How to Execute This Trade // EURUSDFX:EURUSD
How to Execute This Trade
Forex Analysis
Over the past three months, the EUR/USD exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations. In early October 2024, the euro was trading at approximately $1.10. By early January 2025, it had declined to around $1.04, marking a depreciation of about 5.5%
How to Make This Trade?
Let’s analyze the recent movements in the EUR/USD market.
After a medium-term upward trend and a long-term lateral trend, EUR/USD failed to break the resistance level at 1.10. In October, this triggered a downward trend that led to a 2% decline, repositioning the pair on important support levels for the recent rally. However, these supports were unable to hold.
Subsequently, we observed a small price recovery, building a timid upward move. However, it was quickly stopped by another decline, likely due to new data. This decline established a support level, which soon turned into resistance and a high-volume area (the yellow zone). These two signals indicate the strength of the downtrend. The support failed to hold even upon the second touch, confirming the weakness of the pair.
The most common mistake in such situations is going long with the thought, “It has fallen so much; it must reverse now.” But markets don’t work that way. You need to view the market objectively and unemotionally. In this specific case, the market clearly indicates a downtrend, so the best strategy is to follow the trend and enter short at the next rebound // The chances of success are much higher this way than trying to go long.
After breaking support and finding a buying zone on a significant support level (part of the long-term lateral trend mentioned earlier), the price moved back up and broke the resistance area. In such cases, it is always better to wait for a “climax,” a sharp movement that confirms the breakout. A good entry point could have been the resistance level or the volume zone.
To avoid unpleasant surprises or anomalous movements, set an alert and wait for confirmation before entering. Ideally, you want to see an upward candle entering your area of interest, retracing, and closing with a medium-to-large spike.
Our reasoning is confirmed as the market absorbs a large candle, creating an excellent opportunity for a short. To the left, we see a large expansion candle breaking several support levels—these candles often act effectively at their base, and this case is no exception.
We placed our trade at the candle’s close, aiming for a risk-reward (RR) of 3.46. The stop loss (SL) was set above the expansion candle’s opening, giving it some breathing rooM // The more space you allow for your stop loss, the higher the probability of success.
Let the trade run, and you’ll notice how the position almost never went into the red. This is because we waited for the right entry point without any emotional bias. Of course, this won’t always be the case, and mistakes will happen, but the key is to remain objective and measured.
We were also fortunate that new data caused a sharp price drop. In such situations, it’s smart to capitalize on the movement // Cut losses short and let profits run.
Adjust the take profit (TP) accordingly.
Switching to a 10-minute time frame, we implemented a “Follow the Price” (FTP) strategy. This involves moving the TP higher, to the base of the last candle, and continuing to adjust it until the price fills the TP. Let’s see how much we extended the profit.
In this case, the profit extension wasn’t huge but still added value without taking additional risks.
This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
Behind the Curtain: Economic Indicators Shaping Corn Futures1: Introduction
Corn Futures (ZC), traded on the CME, play a vital role in global markets, particularly in the agriculture and food industries. As a commodity with widespread applications, Corn Futures are influenced by a multitude of factors, ranging from seasonal weather patterns to broader economic trends. Understanding these influences is critical for traders seeking to navigate the market effectively.
In this article, we leverage machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, to identify key economic indicators that have historically correlated with Corn Futures' price changes. By analyzing daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, we aim to provide a clearer picture of how these indicators potentially shape market behavior and offer actionable insights for traders.
The findings are presented through visual graphs highlighting the top economic indicators across different timeframes. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies, whether for short-term speculation or long-term investment.
2: Understanding the Key Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide a glimpse into various facets of the economy, influencing commodity markets such as Corn Futures. Using the Random Forest model, the following indicators emerged as significant for Corn Futures on different timeframes:
Daily Timeframe:
Oil Import Price Index: Reflects the cost of importing crude oil, impacting energy costs in agriculture, such as fuel for equipment and transportation.
Durable Goods Orders: Tracks demand for goods expected to last three years or more, often signaling broader economic activity that can influence commodity demand.
Natural Gas Prices: Critical for the production of fertilizers, which directly impacts corn farming costs.
Weekly Timeframe:
China GDP Growth Rate: Indicates global demand trends, as China is a major consumer of agricultural products.
Housing Starts: Reflects construction activity, indirectly influencing economic stability and consumer behavior.
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): A measure of credit risk that can signal changes in business investment and economic uncertainty.
Monthly Timeframe:
Retail Sales (YoY): Gauges consumer spending trends, a crucial driver of demand for corn-based products.
Initial Jobless Claims: Acts as a measure of labor market health, influencing disposable income and consumption patterns.
Nonfarm Productivity: Indicates economic efficiency and growth, impacting broader market trends.
By understanding these indicators, traders can interpret their implications on Corn Futures more effectively.
3: How to Use This Information
The timeframes for these indicators provide unique perspectives for different trading styles:
Daily Traders: Indicators like the Oil Import Price Index and Natural Gas Prices, which are highly sensitive to short-term changes, are valuable for high-frequency trading strategies. Daily traders can monitor these to anticipate intraday price movements in Corn Futures.
Swing Traders (Weekly): Weekly indicators, such as the China GDP Growth Rate or Housing Starts, help identify intermediate-term trends. Swing traders can align their positions with these macroeconomic signals for trades lasting several days or weeks.
Long-Term Traders (Monthly): Monthly indicators, such as Retail Sales and Nonfarm Productivity, provide insights into overarching economic trends. Long-term traders can use these to assess demand-side factors impacting Corn Futures over extended periods.
Additionally, traders can enhance their strategies by overlaying these indicators with seasonal patterns in Corn Futures, as weather-related supply shifts often coincide with economic factors.
4: Applications for Risk Management
Understanding the relationship between economic indicators and Corn Futures also plays a critical role in risk management. Here are several ways to apply these insights:
Refining Entry and Exit Points: By correlating Corn Futures with specific indicators, traders can potentially time their entries and exits more effectively. For example, a sharp rise in the Oil Import Price Index might signal increased production costs, potentially pressuring corn prices downward.
Diversifying Trading Strategies: Leveraging daily, weekly, and monthly indicators allows traders to adapt their strategies across timeframes. Short-term volatility from energy prices can complement long-term stability signals from broader economic metrics like GDP Growth.
Mitigating Uncertainty: Tracking indicators such as Corporate Bond Spreads can provide early warnings of economic instability, helping traders hedge their Corn Futures positions with other assets or options.
Seasonal Hedging: Combining indicator-based insights with seasonal trends in Corn Futures can enhance risk-adjusted returns. For instance, aligning hedging strategies with both economic and weather-related factors could reduce downside exposure.
5: Conclusion
The analysis highlights how diverse economic indicators shape Corn Futures prices across multiple timeframes. From daily volatility influenced by energy costs to long-term trends driven by consumer spending and productivity, each indicator provides unique insights into market dynamics.
Traders can use this framework not only for Corn Futures but also for other commodities, enabling a more data-driven approach to trading. The combination of machine learning and economic analysis presents opportunities to refine strategies and improve outcomes in the competitive world of futures trading.
Stay tuned for the next article in this series, where we delve into another futures market and its relationship with key economic indicators.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Institutional Supply: CAD/JPY shortsHey,
Little bit of a tutorial here to give you a better understanding about my zones.
Of course on my profile you find multiple videos of my trading style.
But if you see something like this shape up, all I do is wait...
I wait for price to reach my supply zone, and show me 4hour confirmation.
This confirmation is explained in other video's and posts.
Study these charts, the zones play out a lot of times.
A true edge.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
How to Use the Ichimoku CloudUsing the Ichimoku Cloud indicator is a great tool to determine long-term trends and occasionally trend changes.
Note on the Gold chart price stayed below both cloud boundaries from May to November 2022. Then in mid-November price decisively moved above both cloud boundary lines. The size of the price move is a main clue of potential trend changes.
In March 2023 price broke weakly below the boundary lines and reached a prior price bottom. These were clues that the potential bearish break lacked strength and was likely to fail.
From May to October 2023, we see another bear trend that failed to break above the cloud.
Then came a decisive move above the cloud. Even though price had already made a significant move up from the October 2023 bottom; it was still advantages to enter long positions on the upside break out.
The Ichimoko Cloud could help keep you on the right side of a market.
TB-SYNERGY STRATEGY V6 2.0 TUTURIAL A 9 IN 1 INDICATORTRADERBUG'S SYNERGY STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0 REVISED 1/5/25
**W/ 8-21-200 EMAs
**UT BOT ALERTS
** RSI
** MACD
** LRC LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL
** PARABOLIC SAR
** ATR BANDS
** HH-HL-LH-LL
* This is a private script but i will be opening it up for invite only paid indicator very soon so please DM
Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy V6+ Alerts 2.0
An Integrated Multi-Indicator Tool for Enhanced Market Analysis
TB-STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0
Is a comprehensive trading tool designed to simplify market analysis by consolidating multiple proven technical indicators into a single, easy-to-use script. This strategy is tailored for traders seeking high-confidence buy and sell signals across various timeframes, making it particularly effective on higher timeframes and blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
By integrating five powerful indicators, this strategy ensures precision, clarity, and reliability in market trend identification, momentum analysis, and potential entry/exit points.
Purpose and Usage
This script is designed for advanced traders seeking a multi-faceted approach to analyze price action, momentum, and trend behavior. It combines leading and lagging indicators with visual and alert-based signals to guide entry/exit points. The strategy is protective of its intellectual property,
Key Features
1. Linear Regression Channel (LRC): Identifies trend direction and potential reversal points with a clear channel-based structure.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Highlights overbought and oversold conditions, helping identify momentum shifts.
3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Captures trend reversals and momentum transitions with signal clarity.
4. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Tracks short-term (8 EMA), medium-term (20 EMA), and long-term (200 EMA) trends for comprehensive trend analysis.
5. UT Bot Alerts: Provides visual buy/sell signals (green = buy, red = sell) for actionable entry/exit confirmations.
6. Parabolic SAR (Green=Buy, Red=Sell) for entry/exit confirmations
7. ATR Bands (Brown) for Stoploss/Take profit
8. HH-HL-LH-LL (Green=Buy,Red=Sell) for tops & Bottoms
9. volume Spikes (Blue Triangle up) confirmation of adequate volume to take trade
This script also includes Heiken Ashi compatibility to smooth price action, reduce noise, and make trends easier to identify.
How It Works
Entry Rules
• Long Entry:
A long trade is signaled when:
• Price re-enters the LRC channel from below.
• RSI crosses above oversold levels.
• MACD crosses bullish.
• EMAs align upward (8 EMA > 20 EMA > 200 EMA).
• UT Bot Alert confirms with a green signal.
• Short Entry:
A short trade is signaled when:
• Price exits the LRC channel from above.
• RSI crosses below overbought levels.
• MACD crosses bearish.
• EMAs align downward (8 EMA < 20 EMA < 200 EMA).
• UT Bot Alert confirms with a red signal.
Exit Rules
• Exit when:
• Signals indicate a reversal (e.g., RSI leaves overbought/oversold zones, MACD crosses in the opposite direction).
• EMAs show trend exhaustion.
• UT Bot Alerts signal an opposite trend.
Benefits for Traders
• Streamlined Analysis: Reduces the need for multiple indicators by integrating them into one tool.
• High Precision: Aligns multiple indicator signals for confluence, minimizing false entries.
• Versatility: Works across various asset classes, including crypto, forex, and stocks.
• User-Friendly Visualization: Custom color-coding and shapes simplify signal interpretation.
• Time-Saving: Consolidates analysis into a single, intuitive script.
Suggested Use Cases
1. Higher Timeframes (Daily, 4H): Ideal for blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, providing historically consistent signals for trend-following strategies.
2. Volatile Assets (Meme Coins, Altcoins): While effective, signals may be less reliable due to higher volatility. Use with caution and proper risk management.
Why It Stands Out
Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy is not just another single-function indicator. It combines the strengths of Nine proven tools into one comprehensive system, ensuring high-quality signals through confluence. Built-in features like Heiken Ashi smoothing and custom visualization make this script accessible to traders of all experience levels.
Compliance and Disclaimer
This tool is intended for market analysis and does not guarantee trading success. Users should practice proper risk management and consider signals within the context of their trading strategy. Results may vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and asset type.
Step-by-Step Guide to Add the Indicator to TradingView
Step 1: Open the Pine Editor
1. Log in to your TradingView account.
2. Open any chart.
3. At the bottom of the screen, click the Pine Editor tab.
Step 2: Paste the Code
1. In the Pine Editor, delete any preloaded text.
2. Paste the custom Pine Script code for the Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy.
Step 3: Save the Script
1. Click the Save icon or press Ctrl + S (Windows) / Cmd + S (Mac).
2. Name the script (e.g., “Traderbug Synergy Strategy”).
Step 4: Add to Chart
1. Click the Add to Chart button (play icon).
2. If the code compiles correctly, the indicator will appear on the chart.
Step 5: Customize and Use
1. Adjust settings via the gear icon in the Indicators list.
2. Begin trading using the signals provided by the indicator.
Settings Cheat Sheet
• Candles:
• Green: Bullish signal
• Red: Bearish signal
• LRC:
• White diamond step lines for trend direction
• UT Bot Alerts:
• Green: Buy signal
• Red: Sell signal
• RSI:
• Overbought/Oversold: Visualized with circles
• MACD:
• Crossovers: Visualized with diamonds
• EMAs:
• 8 EMA (White), 20 EMA (Green), 200 EMA (Red) for trend analysis
• PSAR Green:Buy signal Red:Sell signal
• ATR Bands (Brown) Take profit & Stop loss
• HH-HL-LH-LL Tops & Bottom finder
• VOLUME SPIKE (Blue Triangle up) Confirmation of buy/sell
Why Choose Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy?
• Efficient Use of Free Tier on TradingView : Get the power of 9 indicators in one tool, making it easier to get comprehensive insights without cluttering your chart or exceeding your limit on the free tier.
“Our 9-in-1 TradingView indicator delivers exceptional value by combining five powerful tools into one seamless package. Traders can access a multi-functional solution that covers all their needs, without the requirement for a Pro or Pro+ plan. By subscribing to our indicator, you’re getting the equivalent of multiple individual indicators, all in one, without the extra cost or complexity. It’s the perfect solution for traders looking for a comprehensive and cost-effective way to enhance their strategies, all while using the free TradingView plan.”
Alerts
• Supports custom alerts for the various buy/sell conditions, enabling automated notifications or integrations with other systems.
This strategy is an excellent choice for intermediate to advanced traders looking for a multi-tool approach to market analysis. It’s especially valuable for those trading blue-chip assets or focusing on higher timeframes. With some refinements, it could easily become one of the most comprehensive and user-friendly TradingView tools available.
Final Notes
Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy is a versatile, multi-tool system designed for traders who value precision and efficiency. With its advanced features and user-friendly design, it stands out as a valuable resource for market analysis.
Who Should Use It:
• Intermediate to Advanced Traders: Ideal for those who can interpret the signals and use them in conjunction with their own analysis.
• Serious Investors: Perfect for traders who prioritize accuracy and are willing to pair this tool with proper risk management strategies.
What Makes It Unique:
This strategy takes the power of multiple indicators, simplifies their signals into actionable insights, and provides both visual cues and customizable alerts. By offering confluence from leading and lagging indicators, it ensures reliability in trend detection, momentum shifts, and potential entry/exit points.
TB-SYNERGY STRATEGY V6 2.0 JUST UPDATEDTRADERBUG'S SYNERGY STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0 REVISED 1/5/25
**W/ 8-21-200 EMAs
**UT BOT ALERTS
** RSI
** MACD
** LRC LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL
** PARABOLIC SAR
** ATR BANDS
** HH-HL-LH-LL
Published closed but will be opening up for invite only paid 9-1 indicator
Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy V6+ Alerts 2.0
An Integrated Multi-Indicator Tool for Enhanced Market Analysis
TB-STRATEGY V6+ALERTS 2.0
Is a comprehensive trading tool designed to simplify market analysis by consolidating multiple proven technical indicators into a single, easy-to-use script. This strategy is tailored for traders seeking high-confidence buy and sell signals across various timeframes, making it particularly effective on higher timeframes and blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
By integrating five powerful indicators, this strategy ensures precision, clarity, and reliability in market trend identification, momentum analysis, and potential entry/exit points.
Purpose and Usage
This script is designed for advanced traders seeking a multi-faceted approach to analyze price action, momentum, and trend behavior. It combines leading and lagging indicators with visual and alert-based signals to guide entry/exit points. The strategy is protective of its intellectual property,
Key Features
1. Linear Regression Channel (LRC): Identifies trend direction and potential reversal points with a clear channel-based structure.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Highlights overbought and oversold conditions, helping identify momentum shifts.
3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Captures trend reversals and momentum transitions with signal clarity.
4. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Tracks short-term (8 EMA), medium-term (20 EMA), and long-term (200 EMA) trends for comprehensive trend analysis.
5. UT Bot Alerts: Provides visual buy/sell signals (green = buy, red = sell) for actionable entry/exit confirmations.
6. Parabolic SAR (Green=Buy, Red=Sell) for entry/exit confirmations
7. ATR Bands (Brown) for Stoploss/Take profit
8. HH-HL-LH-LL (Green=Buy,Red=Sell) for tops & Bottoms
9. volume Spikes (Blue Triangle up) confirmation of adequate volume to take trade
This script also includes Heiken Ashi compatibility to smooth price action, reduce noise, and make trends easier to identify.
How It Works
Entry Rules
• Long Entry:
A long trade is signaled when:
• Price re-enters the LRC channel from below.
• RSI crosses above oversold levels.
• MACD crosses bullish.
• EMAs align upward (8 EMA > 20 EMA > 200 EMA).
• UT Bot Alert confirms with a green signal.
• Short Entry:
A short trade is signaled when:
• Price exits the LRC channel from above.
• RSI crosses below overbought levels.
• MACD crosses bearish.
• EMAs align downward (8 EMA < 20 EMA < 200 EMA).
• UT Bot Alert confirms with a red signal.
Exit Rules
• Exit when:
• Signals indicate a reversal (e.g., RSI leaves overbought/oversold zones, MACD crosses in the opposite direction).
• EMAs show trend exhaustion.
• UT Bot Alerts signal an opposite trend.
Benefits for Traders
• Streamlined Analysis: Reduces the need for multiple indicators by integrating them into one tool.
• High Precision: Aligns multiple indicator signals for confluence, minimizing false entries.
• Versatility: Works across various asset classes, including crypto, forex, and stocks.
• User-Friendly Visualization: Custom color-coding and shapes simplify signal interpretation.
• Time-Saving: Consolidates analysis into a single, intuitive script.
Suggested Use Cases
1. Higher Timeframes (Daily, 4H): Ideal for blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, providing historically consistent signals for trend-following strategies.
2. Volatile Assets (Meme Coins, Altcoins): While effective, signals may be less reliable due to higher volatility. Use with caution and proper risk management.
Why It Stands Out
Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy is not just another single-function indicator. It combines the strengths of Nine proven tools into one comprehensive system, ensuring high-quality signals through confluence. Built-in features like Heiken Ashi smoothing and custom visualization make this script accessible to traders of all experience levels.
Compliance and Disclaimer
This tool is intended for market analysis and does not guarantee trading success. Users should practice proper risk management and consider signals within the context of their trading strategy. Results may vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and asset type.
Step-by-Step Guide to Add the Indicator to TradingView
Step 1: Open the Pine Editor
1. Log in to your TradingView account.
2. Open any chart.
3. At the bottom of the screen, click the Pine Editor tab.
Step 2: Paste the Code
1. In the Pine Editor, delete any preloaded text.
2. Paste the custom Pine Script code for the Traderbug’s Synergy Strategy.
Step 3: Save the Script
1. Click the Save icon or press Ctrl + S (Windows) / Cmd + S (Mac).
2. Name the script (e.g., “Traderbug Synergy Strategy”).
Step 4: Add to Chart
1. Click the Add to Chart button (play icon).
2. If the code compiles correctly, the indicator will appear on the chart.
Step 5: Customize and Use
1. Adjust settings via the gear icon in the Indicators list.
2. Begin trading using the signals provided by the indicator.
Settings Cheat Sheet
• Candles:
• Green: Bullish signal
• Red: Bearish signal
• LRC:
• White diamond step lines for trend direction
• UT Bot Alerts:
• Green: Buy signal
• Red: Sell signal
• RSI:
• Overbought/Oversold: Visualized with circles
• MACD:
• Crossovers: Visualized with diamonds
• EMAs:
• 8 EMA (White), 20 EMA (Green), 200 EMA (Red) for trend analysis
• PSAR Green:Buy signal Red:Sell signal
• ATR Bands (Brown) Take profit & Stop loss
• HH-HL-LH-LL Tops & Bottom finder
• VOLUME SPIKE (Blue Triangle up) Confirmation of buy/sell
It precious metals oil dxy1.3.25 I find it helpful the categorize the market in ways that are more specific than trending or ranging. there are intermediate patterns that can give you solid information including what reasonable targets you can use before you actually start the trade. near the end of the video I stumbled on the silver market which actually triggered long and short trades with relatively small risk....... and one reason you could think as a stop in Reverse traitor in that market because it characteristically has higher volatility than most markets it because 1 point is 1000 of dollars. so if you like action and you don't mind spending more time in front of the screen you can get that from Silver. I am not recommending silver because it doesn't take too many mistakes to lose a lot of capital. in fact gold is not a trade to start out with for the same reasons but I think there is a smaller contract and I know there is a smaller contract for oil which I think is a great Market... so if you start out with oil make sure it's the qm I think.... the smaller contract... half the return but half the risk. always be risk adverse. I spent more time than I should have over 30 minutes for sure... I'm sorry about that, but there are some subtleties to patterns that that are not really that subtle when you look at them with a Discerning Eye. it is possible that the oil will trade higher from its current price and then I would add another range box above the current range box... I did not get to talk about that on this video. on the other hand while I am generally bullish on the precious metals, my gut feeling on gold is that it's going to range for a while until something happens that changes my mind... and that would influence the way I would trade that market.
Decoding Reversals: Technical Analysis of ONGC: Educational postEDUCATIONAL POST
Technical Analysis of ONGC Stock
This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
In this post, we'll analyze the ONGC stock chart using technical indicators.
Key Points:
1. Bullish Divergence: Price and MACD are diverging, indicating a potential reversal.
2. Bullish Divergence: Price and RSI are also diverging, supporting the reversal idea.
3. Resistance Breakout: The stock has broken through a key resistance level with strong volume.
4. MACD Turns Positive: MACD has turned positive after the breakout, confirming the reversal.
5. Elliott Wave Counts: Wave counts suggest a potential reversal.
What to Expect:
Based on these indicators, we can see a potential reversal in ONGC's stock price. It may retrace to Fibonacci levels (50-61.8%) before continuing upward.
Conclusion:
This post is meant to illustrate how technical indicators can be used to analyze a stock chart. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Ascending Triangle in Nikkei/Yen Futures: A 2025 Bullish Setup?1. Introduction
The Nikkei/Yen Futures, a crucial instrument for traders aiming to capture movements in Japan’s equity index and its currency dynamics, presents an intriguing setup as we step into 2025. An ascending triangle pattern, a classic bullish formation, is emerging on the chart, signaling a potential breakout to the upside.
Adding to the technical allure is the depletion of sell unfilled orders (UFOs) within a significant price zone between 40,420 and 39,685. This critical area, revisited six times since late July 2024, has seen a steady reduction of unfilled sell orders, opening the possibility for bullish momentum to dominate. With the price currently hovering near the 39,685 level, the stage appears set for a breakout opportunity.
2. The Technical Setup
The ascending triangle, characterized by a series of higher lows converging toward a horizontal resistance level, often signifies bullish pressure. In the case of the Nikkei/Yen Futures, the horizontal resistance resides near 39,685, the lower boundary of a key sell UFO zone.
This resistance has been tested repeatedly since July 2024, with each revisit chipping away at the sell orders within the zone. Such behavior suggests diminishing selling pressure, setting the foundation for a breakout. The anticipated target for this breakout, calculated using Fibonacci projection, is set at 41,380—aligning with historical price action and technical projections.
Key Contract Specifications:
o Regular Nikkei/Yen Futures (NIY1!)
Contract Size: ¥500 x Nikkei 225 index
Tick Size: ¥5
Point Value: ¥2,500
Margin Requirement: Approx. $ 1,500,000 JPY
o Micro Nikkei/Yen Futures (MNI)
Contract Size: ¥50 x Nikkei 225 index
Tick Size: ¥5
Point Value: ¥250
Margin Requirement: Approx. $ 150,000 JPY
These details ensure accessibility for both institutional and retail traders, with the micro contract enabling smaller capital commitments while maintaining exposure to the same underlying asset.
3. Forward-Looking Trade Plan
The technical evidence supports a bullish trade plan for Nikkei/Yen Futures:
Trade Direction: Long
Entry Price: Above 39,685, confirming a breakout from the resistance level.
Target Price: 41,380, based on Fibonacci projections.
Stop Loss: 39,120, targeting a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio to manage risk effectively.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3:1 (Calculated: 41,380 - 39,685 = 1,695 reward; 39,685 - 39,120 = 565 risk).
The trade parameters apply to both the standard and micro contracts, offering flexibility in position sizing. Traders with smaller accounts may opt for the micro contract to manage margin requirements while engaging in this high-potential setup.
4. Importance of Risk Management
Risk management remains the cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, particularly when trading leveraged instruments like futures. Here are key considerations for managing risk in the Nikkei/Yen Futures trade setup:
Stop-Loss Orders: Placing a stop-loss at 39,120 ensures a predefined risk level, protecting traders from unexpected market reversals. It’s vital to adhere to this level to maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making.
Position Sizing: The availability of micro contracts (MNIY1!) allows traders to tailor their position size according to their account size and risk tolerance. For example, trading one micro contract involves a significantly smaller margin commitment compared to the regular contract, making it suitable for retail traders.
Defined Risk Exposure: Leveraged products like futures can lead to substantial losses if risk is not clearly defined. Using stop-loss orders and trading within calculated risk parameters prevents the potential for undefined losses.
Precise Entries and Exits: Setting the entry above 39,685 ensures a systematic approach to triggering the trade based on the expected breakout. Similarly, targeting 41,380 using Fibonacci projections ensures that profit objectives align with technical analysis rather than arbitrary levels.
By prioritizing these aspects, traders can mitigate risks while maximizing the potential reward from this bullish setup.
5. Closing Remarks
The Nikkei/Yen Futures seem to be poised for a potential breakout as we enter 2025, driven by a combination of technical factors and diminishing sell-side unfilled orders. The ascending triangle formation strengthens the bullish bias, with the calculated Fibonacci projection of 41,380 offering an attractive target.
Both the standard and micro contracts cater to different trader profiles, allowing participation regardless of account size. As the price approaches the critical 39,685 level, traders are encouraged to stay vigilant, using real-time CME data to track developments and validate entry triggers.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Bitcoin:Digital Gold or the Most Sophisticated Mirage of Our EraImagine for a moment that you could travel back in time and explain the concept of paper money to someone from 500 years ago: "Are you telling me this paper is worth something just because we all agree it has value?" They would look at you as if you were crazy. Yet here we are, using paper money every day without thinking twice about it.
Bitcoin generates today the same disbelief that paper money once provoked. Since its creation in 2009, it has been the subject of intense debates: Is it truly the digital gold of our era or the most sophisticated mirage in financial history?
The answer is more fascinating than it seems. Like Schrödinger's cat, Bitcoin exists in a state of superposition: simultaneously embodying characteristics of digital gold and exhibiting speculative behaviors, without being exclusively either.
Gold has endured for millennia as a store of value due to characteristics that Bitcoin replicates digitally:
• Scarcity: Only 21 million units will ever exist.
• Durability: The blockchain is immutable.
• Divisibility: Each Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million Satoshis.
• Accessibility: Instantly transferable across borders.
When people debate whether Bitcoin is digital gold or a bubble, they're asking the wrong question. It's like asking whether the Internet in 1995 was a communication network or a passing fad. The reality is that it was something completely new, something that would change the world in unpredictable ways.
Bitcoin, although speculative, has also proven to be a catalyst for profound changes in how we understand money, finance, and decentralization. Its evolution might resemble that of other disruptive innovations which, after a period of speculation, found their place in the world.
As central banks print more money, Bitcoin emerges as an alternative to the traditional financial system. Its digital nature positions it perfectly in an increasingly globalized and technological world.
Bitcoin has achieved something that seemed impossible: creating genuine scarcity in the digital world. It's not just "gold," it's the first successful experiment in native Internet money.
The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is digital gold or a speculative bubble. The real question is: Are we witnessing the birth of a new financial standard?
As financial institutions, companies, and governments increasingly adopt this asset, one thing becomes clear: Bitcoin is not simply a passing trend, but a window into a future where technology and finance merge in ways we're just beginning to understand.
Will Bitcoin Push BLX to New Heights? Analyzing Market Cycles anHI traders
Bitcoin has the power to shape the future, and as BLX follows its path, understanding the emotional market cycles becomes key to navigating its potential. In this analysis, we’ll explore the relationship between Bitcoin's movements and the psychological phases of the market cycle. From the initial optimism that drives the first wave of buying, to the euphoria when prices surge to new highs, and then the inevitable anxiety as market sentiment begins to shift. Fear sets in during the panic phase, leading to widespread selling, followed by despair, where most investors exit the market. However, this is followed by hope as the market stabilizes and slowly recovers. Understanding how these emotional shifts influence BLX and Bitcoin will help you spot opportunities, manage risk, and position yourself for success as the market moves through its cyclical nature. The key is not just predicting the market, but mastering your emotions to thrive in any phase.
How Does Market Psychology Shape BLX's Price Movements?Hi traders
"How the Psychology of Market Cycles Influences BLX"
The Psychology of a Market Cycle refers to the emotional and behavioral phases investors and traders experience as markets move through different stages, from optimism during bull markets to fear and despair during downturns. Understanding these psychological patterns is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding common pitfalls.
Market cycles are deeply intertwined with investor psychology, and their impact is clearly reflected in indices like BLX, which tracks Bitcoin’s price performance. The emotional phases of optimism, fear, and recovery that characterize market cycles shape the trajectory of BLX in profound ways.
Bull Markets and Euphoria:
In the optimistic and euphoric stages, BLX often experiences significant upward momentum as confidence and greed drive speculative buying. The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) accelerates the rise, pushing BLX to new highs.
Bear Markets and Panic:
When anxiety and denial give way to fear and capitulation, BLX faces sharp declines. Investors overwhelmed by negative sentiment sell off assets, leading to steep corrections in the index.
Recovery and Hope:
As despair subsides and hope emerges, BLX starts to stabilize and climb, driven by early adopters and institutional interest. This phase lays the groundwork for the next market cycle.
Understanding the psychological dynamics behind market cycles can help traders and investors navigate BLX’s fluctuations, make informed decisions, and avoid being swayed by emotional reactions.
Visual A Happy New Year.This visualization transforms price data into a dynamic constellation of interconnected points, moving beyond linear time series analysis to explore hidden dimensions of market behavior. It leverages the human brain's pattern recognition abilities to potentially reveal insights invisible on standard charts.
█ CONCEPTS
This visualization breaks free from the constraints of linear time by connecting data points based on relationships beyond chronological order. This approach allows for the exploration of non-linear patterns and multi-dimensional time series analysis, leveraging the speed of visual information processing in the human brain. It's a demonstration where a logarithm is swinging back and forth sweeping to look for patterns that the lines cross along common frequencies.
█ NEW AVENUES OF OBSERVATION
• Non-Linear Pattern Detection: Identify patterns and correlations invisible on standard charts, such as subtle shifts in market sentiment or recurring motifs signaling trend changes.
• Multi-Dimensional Time Series Analysis: Explore dimensions beyond time, such as volatility, volume, or sentiment, to uncover hidden drivers of market behavior.
• Visual Intuition: Leverage the brain's pattern recognition to intuitively grasp complex market dynamics obscured by traditional methods.
█ THE POTENTIAL OF IMAGINATIVE TOOLING
This visualization demonstrates the power of creative coding with Pine Script and the potential of platforms like TradingView to develop innovative market analysis tools.
█ TECHNICAL INSIGHTS
The focus on visuals stems from the brain's rapid processing of visual information compared to text or numbers, enabling faster pattern and trend identification.
█ QUESTIONS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION
1 — What relationships between data points are visualized (price proximity, volatility, volume, etc.)?
In this case, it's a demonstration where a logarithm is swinging back and forth sweeping to look for patterns that the lines cross along common frequencies.
2 — How can we quantify and automatically detect/classify emerging patterns and clusters?
By measuring when lines cross pivots, distance of points from patterned averages, density between two lines... Many possible ideas.
3 — How can we incorporate additional dimensions to enrich market behavior understanding?
By Trying, by testing, experimenting in ways beyond what you saw before.
█ FUTURE DIRECTIONS
This is a starting point for further research. Continued exploration could lead to sophisticated tools integrating multiple market data dimensions, allowing navigation through a visualized landscape for better predictions and strategies. Imagine a future where traders and analysts can navigate through a 3D visualised landscape of market data with overlapping colours, transparencies, layers indicating correlations, zooming in on specific patterns and lighting up in ways that show us moments of significance that were previously invisible.
█ CALL TO ACTION
Experiment with Pine Script and share your visualizations. Collective creativity and innovation can drive this field forward. Let's explore, experiment, and push the limits of visual thinking together. This visualisation is only one of many starting points, you can find a number of other greet works by browsing through the scripts available on Trading view, I am sharing this as an invitation to think outside the box.
HOW-TO use the Rainbow Indicator? (full guide)Below is a complete instruction on how to use the Rainbow Indicator along with examples. This indicator is an important facet of my decision-making system because it allows me to answer two important questions:
- At what price should I make a trade with the selected shares?
- In what volume?
Part 1: Darts Set
My concept of investing in stocks is buying great companies during a sell-off . Of course, this idea is not unique. One way or another, this was said by the luminaries of value investing – Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. However, the implementation of this concept may vary depending on the preferences of each investor.To find great companies, I use the Fundamental strength indicator , and to plan opening and closing positions I use the Rainbow indicator.
To begin your acquaintance with the Rainbow Indicator, I would like to invite you to take part in a mental experiment. Imagine two small rooms for a game of darts. Each room has a different target hanging in it. It can be anywhere: center, left, right, bottom, or top.
Target #1 from the first room looks like a small red circle.
Target #2 from the second room looks like a larger red circle.
You get a reward for hitting the target, calculated according to the following principle: the smaller the target in relation to the wall surface, the greater the reward you get.
You have 100 darts in your hand, that is 100 attempts to hit the target. For each attempt, you pay $10. So to play this unusual game of darts, you take with you $1,000. Now, the most important condition is that you play in absolute darkness . So you don't know exactly what part of the wall the target is hanging in, so all your years of darts practice don't matter here.
The question is: Which room will you choose?
This is where you begin to think. Since your skills and experience are almost completely untapped in this game, all of your attempts to hit a target will be random. This is a useful observation because it allows you to apply the theory of probability. The password is Jacob Bernoulli. This is the mathematician who derived the formula by which you can calculate the probability of a successful outcome for a limited number of attempts.
In our case, a successful outcome is a dart hitting the target as many times as necessary in order to, at least, not lose anything. In the case of Target #1, it is one hit or more. In the case of Target 2, it is 10 hits or more.
The probability of hitting Target #1 is 1/100 or 1% (since the target area occupies 1% of the wall area).
The probability of hitting Target #2 is 10/100 or 10% (since the target area occupies 10% of the wall area).
The number of attempts is equal to the number of darts - 100.
Now we have all the data to calculate.
So, Bernoulli's formula :
According to this formula:
- The probability of one or more hits on Target #1 is 63% (out of 100%).
- The probability of ten or more hits on Target #2 is 55% (out of 100%).
You may say, "I think we should go to the first room". However, take your time with this conclusion because it is interesting to calculate the probability of not hitting the target even once, i.e., losing $1,000.
We calculate using the same formula:
- The probability of not hitting Target #1 is 37% (out of 100%).
- The probability of not hitting Target #2 is 0.0027% (out of 100%).
If we calculate the ratio of the probability of a successful outcome to the probability of losing the whole amount, we get:
- For the first room = 1.7
- For the second room = 20370
You know, I like the second room better.
This mental experiment reflects my approach to investing in stocks. The first room is an example of a strategy where you try to find the perfect entry point - to buy at a price below which the stock will not fall. The second room reflects an approach where you're not chasing a specific price level, but thinking in price ranges. In both cases, you'll have plenty of attempts, but in the first room, the risk of losing everything is much greater than in the second room.
Now let me show you my target, which is a visual interpretation of the Rainbow Indicator.
It also hangs on the wall, in absolute darkness, and only becomes visible after I have used all the darts. Before the game starts, I announce the color where I want to go. The probability of hitting decreases from blue to green, and then to orange and red. That is, the smaller the color area, the less likely it is to successfully hit the selected color. However, the size of the reward also increases according to the same principle - the smaller the area of color, the greater the reward.
Throwing a dart is an attempt to close a position with a profit.
Hitting the selected color is a position closed with a profit.
Missing the selected color means the position is closed at a loss.
Now imagine that in the absolutely dark room where I am, I have a flashlight. Thanks to it, I have the opportunity to see in which part of the wall the target is located. This gives me a significant advantage because now I throw darts not blindly, but with a precise understanding of where I am aiming. Light shining on the wall increases the probability of a successful outcome, which can also be estimated using the Bernoulli formula.
Let's say I have 100 darts in my hands, that is, one hundred attempts to hit the chosen target. The probability of a dart hitting a red target (without the help of a flashlight) is 10%, and with the help of a flashlight, for example, 15%. That is, my ability to throw darts improves the probability of hitting the target by 5%. For hitting the red target, I get $100, and for each throw I pay $10. In this case, the probability of hitting the red target ten or more times is 94.49% (out of 100%) versus 55% (out of 100%) without a flashlight. In other words, under these game conditions and the assumptions made, if I try all 100 darts, the probability of recouping all my expenses will be 94.49% if I aim only at the red target.
In my decision-making system, such a "flashlight" is the Fundamental strength indicator, dynamics of cash flows, the P/E ratio and the absence of critical news. And the darts set (target and darts) is a metaphor for the Rainbow Indicator. However, please note that all probabilities of positive outcomes are assumptions and are provided only for the purpose of example and understanding of the approach I have chosen. Stocks of public companies are not a guaranteed income instrument, nor are any indicators associated with them.
Part 2: Margin of safety
The idea to create the Rainbow Indicator came to me thanks to the concept of "margin of safety" coined by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated based on financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety". At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology.
So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better.
When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I don’t try to find the coveted intrinsic value/cost, but I try to understand how fundamentally strong the company in front of me is, and how many years it will take to pay off my investment in it.
To decide to buy shares, I use the following sequence of actions:
- Determining fundamental strength of a company and analysis of cash flows using the Fundamental Strength Indicator.
- Analysis of the recoupment period of investments using P/E ratio .
- Analysis of critical news .
- Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator.
To decide to sell shares, I use:
- Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator.
- Or The Rule of Replacement of Stocks in a Portfolio .
- Or Force majeure Position Closing Rule .
Thus, the Rainbow indicator is always used in tandem with other indicators and analysis methods when buying stocks. However, in the case of selling previously purchased shares, I can only use the Rainbow indicator or one of the rules that I will discuss below. Next, we will consider the methodology for calculating the Rainbow Indicator.
Indicator calculation methodology
The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter, a year will mean the last 252 trading days.
Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price.
Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To achieve this, a certain number of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year.
Deviations with a "-" sign from the Lower Rainbow of four colors:
- The Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS.
- The Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS.
- The Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS.
- The Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary.
Deviations with a "+" sign from the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors:
- The Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS.
- The Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS.
- The Green Spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS.
- The Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow has only one boundary.
The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs".
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation.
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach.
Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now.
Because the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made:
- The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about the growth of profits in the companies.
- The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about a decrease in profits in the companies.
- The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the growth of losses in the companies.
- The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the decrease in losses in the companies.
- The higher the company's level of profit, the larger my "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in the event of a transition to a cycle of declining financial results. The corresponding width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "reserve".
- The growth in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to stay in the position longer due to the expansion of the Upper Rainbow.
- A decrease in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to close the position faster due to the narrowing of the Upper Rainbow.
So the Rainbow indicator shows me a price range that can be considered for purchase if all the necessary conditions are met. By being in this price range, my investment will have a certain margin of safety or "margin of safety." It will also tell me when to exit a stock position based on the company's earnings analysis.
Part 3: Crazy Mr. Market
The Fundamental strength of a company influences the long-term price performance of its shares. This is a thesis that I believe in and use in my work. A company that does not live in debt and quickly converts its goods or services into money will be appreciated by the market. This all sounds good, you say, but what should an investor do who needs to decide here and now? Moreover, one has to act in conditions of constant changes in market sentiment. Current talk about the company's excellent prospects can be replaced by a pessimistic view of it literally the next day. Therefore, the stock price chart of any companies, regardless of its fundamental strength, can resemble the chaotic drawings of preschool children.
Working with such uncertainty required me to develop my own attitude towards it. Benjamin Graham's idea of market madness was of invaluable help to me in this. Imagine that the market is your business partner, "Mr. Market". Every day, he comes to your office to check in and offer you a deal with shares of your mutual companies. Sometimes he wants to buy your share, sometimes he intends to sell his. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his intuition. When he is in a panic and afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoria and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. This is how crazy your partner is.
Why is he acting like this? According to Graham, this is how all investors behave who do not understand the real value/cost of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The smart investor's job is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for the next visit from crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stocks at a surprisingly low price, take them and wish him luck. If he begs you to sell him stocks and quotes an unusually high price, sell them and wish him luck. The Rainbow indicator is used to evaluate these two poles.
Now let's look at the conditions of opening and closing a position according to the indicator.
So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The Blue Spectrum is upper regarding the Green Spectrum, and the Green Spectrum is lower regarding the Blue Spectrum, etc.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock.
(*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below).
The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position.
- If the current price is in the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts:
1. If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line.
2.if I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough free finances to purchase the required number of shares (Portfolio Replacement Rule).
3. If I learn of events that pose a real threat to the continued existence of the companies (for example, filing for bankruptcy), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to fall into the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum (Force majeure Position Closing Rule).
So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra.
For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the Blue, Green, and Orange Spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if, for some reason, the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the Green Spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the Green Spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow.
The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio. This allows me to use these two indicators within one indicator.
Returning to the madness of the market, I would like to mention that this is a reality that cannot be fought, but can be used to achieve results. To get a sense of this, I will give an example of one of the stereotypes of an investor who uses fundamental analysis in his work.His thinking might be: If I valued a company on its financial performance and bought it, then I should stay in the position long enough to justify my expenses of analysis. In this way, the investor deliberately deprives himself of flexibility in decision-making. He will be completely at a loss if the financial performance starts to deteriorate rapidly and the stock price starts to decline rapidly. It is surprising that the same condition will occur in the case of a rapid upward price movement. The investor will torment himself with the question "what to do?" because I just bought stocks of this company, expecting to hold them for the long term. It is at moments like these that I'm aware of the value of the Rainbow Indicator. If it is not a force majeure or a Reverse situation, I just wait until the price reaches the Upper Rainbow. Thus, I can close the position in a year, in a month or in a few weeks. I don't have a goal to hold an open position for a long time, but I do have a goal to constantly adhere to the chosen investment strategy.
Part 4: Diversification Ratio
If the price is in the Lower Rainbow range and all other criteria are met, it is a good time to ask yourself, "How many shares to buy?" To answer this question, I need to understand how many companies I plan to invest in. Here I adhere to the principle of diversification - that is, distributing investments between the shares of several companies. What is this for? To reduce the impact of any company on the portfolio as a whole. Remember the old saying: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Like baskets, stocks can fall and companies can file for bankruptcy and leave the exchange. In this regard, diversification is a way to avoid losing capital due to investing in only one company.
How do I determine the minimum number of companies for a portfolio? This amount depends on my attitude towards the capital that I will use to invest in stocks. If I accept the risk of losing 100% of my capital, then I can only invest in one company. It can be said that in this case there is no diversification. If I accept the risk of losing 50% of my capital, then I should invest in at least two companies, and so on. I just divide 100% by the percentage of capital that I can safely lose. The resulting number, rounded to the nearest whole number, is the minimum number of companies for my portfolio.
As for the maximum value, it is also easy to determine. To achieve this, you need to multiply the minimum number of companies by four (this is how many spectra the Lower or Upper Rainbow of the indicator contains). How many companies I end up with in my portfolio will depend on from this set of factors. However, this amount will always fluctuate between the minimum and maximum, calculated according to the principle described above.
I call the maximum possible number of companies in a portfolio the diversification coefficient. It is this coefficient that is involved in calculating the number of shares needed to be purchased in a particular spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. How does this work? Let's go to the indicator settings and fill in the necessary fields for the calculation.
+ Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes
+Cash in - the number of finances deposited into my account
-Cash out - the number of finances withdrawn from my account
+/-Closed Profit/Loss - profit or loss on closed positions
+Dividends - dividends received on the account
-Fees - broker and exchange commission
-Taxes - taxes debited from the account
Diversification coefficient
The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra).
The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded)
Here, I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000.
The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded)
Here, I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares.
After entering all the necessary data, I move on to the checkbox, by checking which I confirm that the company in question has successfully passed all preliminary stages of analysis (Fundamental strength indicator, P/E ratio, critical news). Without the check, the calculation is not performed. This is done intentionally because the use of the Rainbow Indicator for the purpose of purchasing shares is possible only after passing all the preliminary stages. Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left.
Market Capitalization
The value of a company's market capitalization, expressed in the currency of its stock price.
Price / EPS Diluted
Current value of the P/E ratio.
Free cash in portfolio
This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in.
Cash amount for one portion
The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. This depends on the diversification ratio entered. If you divide this value + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes by the diversification coefficient, you get Cash amount for one portion .
Potential portions amount
Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. It can be a fractional number.
Cash amount to buy
The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price.
Shares amount to buy
Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price.
Thus, the diversification ratio is a significant parameter of my stocks' investment strategy. It shows both the limit on the number of companies and the limit on the number of portions for the portfolio. It also participates in calculating the number of finances and shares to purchase at the current price level.
Changing the diversification coefficient is possible already during the process of investing in stocks. If my capital ( + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes ) has changed significantly (by more than Cash amount for one portion ), I always ask myself the same question: "What risk (as a percentage of capital) is acceptable for me now?" If the answer involves a change in the minimum number of companies in the portfolio, then the diversification ratio will also be recalculated. Therefore, the number of finances needed to purchase one portion will also change. We can say that the diversification ratio controls the distribution of finances among my investments.
Part 5: Prioritization and Exceptions to the Rainbow Indicator Rules
When analyzing a company and its stock price using the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the Rainbow Indicator, a situation may arise where all the conditions for buying are met in two or more companies. At the same time, Free cash in the portfolio does not allow me to purchase the required number of portions from different companies. In that case, I need to decide which companies I will give priority to.
To decide, I follow the following rules:
1. Priority is given to companies from the top-tier sector group (how these groups are defined is explained in this article ). That is, the first group prevails over the second, and the second over the third. These companies must also meet the purchase criteria described in Part 2.
2. If after applying the first rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Priority is given to companies that have a fundamental strength of 8 points or higher. They must also be within two points of the leader in terms of fundamental strength. For example, if a leader has a fundamental strength of 12 points, then the range under consideration will be from 12 to 10 points.
3. If, after applying the second rule, two or more companies received priority, I look at which spectrum of the Lower Rainbow the current price of these companies is in. If a company's stock price is on the lower end of the spectrum, I give it priority.
4. If, after applying the third rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the P/E ratio. The Company with the lower P/E ratio gets priority.
After applying these four rules, I get the company with the highest priority. This is the company that wins the fight for my investment. To figure out the next priority to buy, I repeat this process over and over again to use up all the money I have allocated for investing in stocks.
The second part of the guide mentioned two rules that I use when deciding whether to close positions:
- The Rule for replacing shares in a portfolio.
- Force majeure position closure Rule.
They take priority over the Rainbow Indicator. This means that the position may be closed even if the Rainbow indicator does not signal this. Let's consider each rule separately.
Portfolio stock replacement Rule
Since company stocks are not an asset with a guaranteed return, I can get into a situation where the position is open for a long time without an acceptable financial result. That is, the price of the company's shares is not growing, and the Rainbow indicator does not signal the need to sell shares. In this case, I can replace the problematic companies with a new one. The criteria for a problem company are:
- 3 months have passed since the position was opened.
- Fundamental strength below 5 points.
- The width of both rainbows decreased during the period of holding the position.
To identify a new company that will take the place of the problematic one, I use the prioritization principle from this section. At the same time, I always consider this possibility as an option. The thing is that frequently replacing stocks in my portfolio is not a priority for me and is seen as a negative action. A new company would have to have really outstanding parameters for me to take advantage of this option.
Force majeure position closure Rule
If my portfolio contains stocks of a company that has critical news, then I can close the position without using the Rainbow Indicator. How to determine whether this news is critical or not is described in this article .
Part 6: Examples of using the indicator
Let’s consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA).
September 02, 2022:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me).
Current price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share.
October 14, 2022:
NVDA's stock price has moved into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me).
Current price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share.
January 23, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock passes through the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the Orange Spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the Orange Spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares.
January 27, 2023:
NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock.
February 02, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock moves into the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed.
As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only based on the Rainbow Indicator.
As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA).
November 01, 2017:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me).
Current price - $62.26 (is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion.
To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26.
August 8, 2018:
PZZA's share price has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me).
Current price - $38.94 (is in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
There is no critical news for the company.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased.
October 31, 2018:
PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow Red Spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum, there is no closing part of the position.
February 01, 2019:
After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company).
March 27, 2019:
PZZA's stock price passes the green and Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%).
Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company.
In conclusion of this instruction, I would like to remind you once again that any investment is associated with risk. Therefore, make sure that you understand all the nuances of the indicators before using them.
Mandatory requirements for using the indicator:
- Works only on a daily timeframe.
- The indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies.
- Quarterly income statements for the last year are required.
- An acceptable for your P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase.
- The Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong.
What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator?
- Clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics.
- Shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position.
- Considers the principle of gradual increase and decrease in a position.
- Allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased.
- Shows the current value of the P/E ratio.
- Shows the current capitalization of the company.
Risk disclaimer
When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Before the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning.
The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying, considering the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
41-Day Sentiment mastery missionGM WARRIORS
I'm on a mission to master the SuperTrend indicator by testing all 42 combinations of its key settings: Factor, ATR (Average True Range), and Time Periods.
Each day, I’ll backtest 50 trades on a new combination to refine a 15-minute day trading system, focusing on trend precision and market sentiment. The combinations include:
21 Factors (2.0 to 4.0 in 0.1 increments).
2 Timeframes (15M and 30M).
Goal: Identify the optimal SuperTrend configuration, master early trend reversals, and sharpen market insights within a month.
Results will be shared daily via a public sheet and incorporated into my ongoing SuperTrend study. If you’d like updates, let me know, and I’ll tag you in this journey!
📊 Progress Sheet: docs.google.com
📘 SuperTrend Study: docs.google.com
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HOW-TO: Connect Indicators to the PSE, Practical Strategy EngineThis is a detailed video of how to connect your indicator(s) to the PSE, Practical Strategy Engine via the "Connection Indicator for the PSE".
Note:
The video shows the "PSE, Practical Strategy Engine" as "PSE".
The video shows the "Connection Indicator for the PSE" as "Connection Ind for PSE".
Copyright © 2024 CoinOperator LLC
Catch Big Reversals Like a Pro Using the GOLDEN RSIHow to Catch Market Tops and Bottoms Using the GOLDEN RSI Indicator
Trading market reversals can feel like a daunting task. But what if you had a secret weapon to help you identify tops, bottoms, and potential reversals with ease? Enter the GOLDEN RSI Indicator—a custom-built tool designed to revolutionize your trading strategy. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to leverage this powerful indicator to spot reversal trades like a seasoned pro.
What is the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
The GOLDEN RSI builds on the traditional RSI (Relative Strength Index) by adding optimized zones and visual signals that highlight potential bullish and bearish reversals. Unlike the standard RSI, which requires subjective interpretation, this indicator provides precise entry and exit signals by visually marking key market conditions.
How to Use the GOLDEN RSI to Catch Market Reversals?
Understand the Key Zones:
Overbought Zone (Above 80): Signals a potential market top or reversal from bullish to bearish.
Oversold Zone (Below 20): Indicates a potential market bottom or reversal from bearish to bullish.
Neutral Zone (60-40): Consolidation phase where trends are less decisive.
Spotting Bullish Reversals
When the RSI dips into the oversold zone (below 20) and begins to reverse upward, the GOLDEN RSI will highlight a Bull signal. This suggests a potential upward move, ideal for long trades.
Pro Tip: Look for confirmation with price action, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a break of resistance.
Spotting Bearish Reversals
When the RSI climbs into the overbought zone (above 80) and starts to turn down, the GOLDEN RSI will mark a Bear signal. This indicates a potential downward move, perfect for short trades.
Pro Tip: Combine with chart patterns like double tops or bearish engulfing candles to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
The Hidden Power of Divergences
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs. This signals potential bearish momentum.
The GOLDEN RSI visualizes divergences clearly, so you can spot them effortlessly.
Use Risk Management Tools
Set stop-loss levels below recent swing lows (for bullish trades) or above recent swing highs (for bearish trades).
Use risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2 to maximize your profit potential.
Real Trade Example Using GOLDEN RSI
In the SPX 15-minute chart above, the GOLDEN RSI accurately identified:
A Bearish Reversal near the market top, as the RSI entered overbought territory and started to fall.
A Bullish Reversal as the RSI dipped into the oversold zone and recovered upward.
These signals allowed for precise entry points, minimizing risk and maximizing rewards.
Why the GOLDEN RSI is a Game-Changer
Unlike generic RSI tools, the GOLDEN RSI is designed with traders in mind. It eliminates the guesswork by providing visual cues for market reversals. Whether you’re trading stocks, indices, or crypto, this indicator is a must-have in your toolkit.
How to Get the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
Want to try it for yourself? Head over to TradingView and add the GOLDEN RSI Indicator to your chart. Use it alongside your favorite price action strategies to take your trading to the next level.
Conclusion
Reversals can make or break a trader’s portfolio. By mastering the GOLDEN RSI, you can confidently spot market tops, bottoms, and reversals with precision. Start using this custom indicator today and watch your trading results improve dramatically!
Don’t forget to like, share, and follow me on TradingView for more tutorials like this one. Let’s catch those reversals together!
How to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading
In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading.
You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals.
First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal.
While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones.
One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily . So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern.
One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns.
I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle.
Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then.
Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling.
Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout.
When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel.
It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel.
Its support will represent a strong vertical structure, from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections.
Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months.
A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement.
Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action.
One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous.
In such a price action, the level of the last higher low is a very significant point.
The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH.
It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend.
After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement.
If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend.
That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low.
Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross.
Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length.
The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA.
It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend.
On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed
The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold.
While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change.
Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Master High-Probability Breakouts with the GOLDEN Trading SystemWelcome to the GOLDEN Trading System (GTS) – a custom-designed strategy tailored for traders seeking high-probability breakout opportunities. Built on the foundation of TradingView's powerful indicators, GTS focuses on leveraging Camarilla Pivot Levels (H3-H4 and L3-L4) to spot and act on potential market trends. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this system simplifies the complexity of technical analysis, giving you an edge in the markets.
Core Elements of the Strategy.
1. Key Levels to Watch:
Green Band (H3-H4):
Represents a resistance zone where bullish breakouts are likely to occur. A confirmed breakout above H4 often leads to a strong upward trend.
Red Band (L3-L4):
Acts as a support zone, signaling potential bearish moves when broken. A confirmed breakdown below L4 generally triggers a downward trend.
2. The Breakout Concept:
When the price crosses either of these bands, it indicates a potential shift in market dynamics:
Bullish Breakout: Price breaks above the Green Band, suggesting buyers have gained control.
Bearish Breakout: Price breaks below the Red Band, signaling sellers have the upper hand.
Why This Strategy Works?
High Probability: Camarilla Pivot Levels are widely respected by traders, making breakouts from these zones more reliable.
Trend Confirmation: The system minimizes false signals by focusing on specific breakout levels instead of broader zones.
Clear Entry/Exit Points: You can easily determine when to enter a trade and set stop-loss or take-profit levels.
How to Use the GOLDEN Trading System?
Identify the Bands: Look for the Green Band (H3-H4) and Red Band (L3-L4) on your chart.
Watch for Breakouts:
Enter a long position when the price closes decisively above the Green Band (H4).
Enter a short position when the price closes decisively below the Red Band (L4).
Manage Your Risk:
Use the opposite band (L3 or H3) as a stop-loss level to protect your trade.
Consider trailing your stop-loss as the trend progresses.
Add Confirmation: For greater accuracy, combine this strategy with other tools such as volume spikes, candlestick patterns, or higher timeframe trend analysis.
Case Study Example:
Take a closer look at the chart provided:
The price broke below the Red Band (L3-L4), confirming a bearish breakout.
Post-breakout, the price continued its downtrend, offering a high-reward opportunity for short-sellers.
By adhering to the system's clear breakout rules, you could have entered the trade early and capitalized on the trend with confidence.
Benefits of the GOLDEN Trading System:
Simplicity: Focuses on straightforward rules, making it beginner-friendly.
Consistency: Reduces emotional trading by adhering to defined breakout zones.
Scalability: Works across multiple timeframes and markets, including indices, stocks, and commodities.
Pro Tip for Advanced Traders:
Combine GTS with volume analysis, RSI divergence, or moving averages to add layers of confirmation to your trades. This helps filter out false breakouts and improves your win rate.
Join the GTS movement and elevate your trading game today! Share your feedback, results, and tweaks to make the strategy even better. Happy trading! 🚀