The Cascade Effect: A Force for Success or Self-Sabotage
The path to successful trading can sometimes feel overwhelming. The reality is daunting, with numerous small and often psychologically challenging biases that need to be overcome daily. However, an awareness of certain chain reactions—like the "Cascade Effect"—can make the mountain top feel within reach.
By harnessing this effect, traders can set in motion a sequence of positive actions that build on each other, creating momentum and growth. On the flip side, if neglected, these small actions can spark a downward spiral, triggered by seemingly insignificant missteps.
Understanding the Cascade Effect: From Fitness to Finance
The Cascade Effect is a concept well-documented in fields like fitness and psychology, where small, consistent actions lead to either upward or downward trajectories in well-being. This principle is not new; research has shown how even one positive action can trigger a chain of beneficial events.
For example, a study exploring the daily impact of exercise found that participants who engaged in physical activity experienced more positive social interactions and achieved more goals, both on the same day and even the next. The researchers concluded, "Exercise creates a positive cascade, increasing positive social and achievement events experienced on the same day and positive social events on the following day." In essence, a simple action like exercising acts as a powerful catalyst, initiating a cycle of rewarding behaviours that reinforce one another and drive overall well-being.
In trading, this concept applies in a similar way. A small, disciplined action—such as a daily review of market conditions—can serve as the foundation for more deliberate decision-making throughout the day.
The Positive Cascade Effect in Trading
The positive Cascade Effect in trading begins with small, intentional actions. For instance, starting the day with a dedicated market review—whether analysing charts, tracking news, or identifying key levels—creates a sense of preparedness. This act of preparation forms the bedrock for disciplined trading decisions throughout the day. These small actions can set off a chain of events that builds mental momentum. As the trader continuously follows these routines, they not only feel more grounded in their approach but also less vulnerable to impulsive decisions or emotional trading.
A powerful example of this positive cascade is the practice of trade journaling. By regularly reviewing each trade and assessing what went well or could be improved, traders gain valuable insight into their unique strengths and weaknesses. This reflection process reinforces positive behaviours while shedding light on areas that need refinement. With each small improvement, traders feel a sense of progress and growth. As this momentum accumulates, their approach becomes more disciplined, which over time can yield more consistent, positive results. This continuous loop of reflection, adjustment, and improvement leads to a more robust trading strategy, underpinned by both mental and emotional resilience.
The Negative Cascade Effect in Trading
Unfortunately, the Cascade Effect can work in the opposite direction, leading to a negative spiral that can be just as powerful, if not more so. Missing a pre-trade routine or skipping chart analysis may seem inconsequential at first, but these small lapses can gradually erode a trader’s discipline. For example, a trader who skips their market prep one day might find it easier to do the same the next day, creating a chain reaction that leads to increasingly haphazard trades. These small oversights compound over time, causing habits to deteriorate and weakening the foundation of a trader’s strategy. As these small mistakes pile up, the trader’s decisions become more reactive rather than proactive, and the trading process feels less grounded and more erratic.
The impact of impulsive decisions can also amplify the negative Cascade Effect. For example, after a loss triggered by an impulsive trade, the trader may feel frustrated, leading them to chase losses or engage in revenge trading. This emotional response worsens the situation, compounding the original mistake. The resulting cycle of frustration and hasty decisions chips away at the trader’s confidence and increases mental strain. Over time, this pattern not only harms trading performance but also makes it more difficult to break free from the cycle. It’s crucial to recognise these small slips early on to prevent them from spiralling into bigger problems that can ultimately undermine your entire approach.
Ensuring a Positive Cascade Effect: Cultivating Conscious Habits
To ensure that the Cascade Effect works in your favour, focus on routines that reinforce discipline and mindfulness. By cultivating awareness and consistency, you can leverage the Cascade Effect to build positive momentum in your trading. Here are a few practices that can help:
• Morning Pre-Trade Routine: Start each day with a consistent market analysis session. Reviewing news, technical setups, and key levels not only prepares you mentally but also sets a positive tone for the day.
• Post-Trade Journaling: After each trade, take the time to reflect on your decisions, emotions, and outcomes. This habit keeps you aware of your decision-making process and allows for continuous learning.
• Mindfulness and Meditation: Incorporating a few minutes of meditation each day can help you stay centred, reducing emotional reactions and fostering awareness of your thoughts and actions.
These habits create a solid foundation for discipline and self-awareness, empowering you to harness the Cascade Effect in a way that can keep the forces of momentum working for you.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Cross Currency Pairs and Strategies Connected with ThemCross Currency Pairs and Strategies Connected with Them
Cross currency forex trading has emerged as an intriguing segment that presents unique opportunities and challenges. In this article, we discuss commonly traded pairs, liquidity challenges, and the factors influencing cross exchange rates. Additionally, we present three trading strategies to help traders navigate the dynamic scene of forex cross currency pairs.
Understanding Cross Currency Trading
Knowing the basic concept of cross currency trading and considering the most frequently traded pairs can open a new realm of opportunities for traders.
Excluding the US Dollar Offers Opportunities
Cross currency pairs, also known as "crosses," involve currencies that are not paired with the US dollar (USD). For instance, if the euro (EUR) is traded against the Japanese yen (JPY), it forms a cross currency pair. Cross currency pairs introduce diversification opportunities and allow traders to gain exposure to specific economies and their interconnections.
Cross Currency Examples
Traditionally, the best forex cross pairs to trade are those that involve currencies from major global economies other than the USA. Here are a few popular and widely traded forex cross pairs:
- EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen): Known for its liquidity and considerable volatility, this pair attracts traders looking for opportunities in the Eurozone and Japan.
- GBP/AUD (British Pound/Australian Dollar): This cross offers a mix of major currencies, providing exposure to two economically significant regions.
- EUR/AUD (Euro/Australian Dollar): Combining the euro and Australian dollar, this pair is favoured for its liquidity and potential trend movements.
- GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen): Renowned for its volatility, this pair is favoured by traders seeking the potential for substantial price movements.
Cross Currency Pairs May Have Liquidity Issues
While cross currency pairs provide diversification opportunities, traders need to navigate potential liquidity challenges. Less popular crosses often exhibit wider spreads, diminishing their attractiveness due to the increased transaction costs. The lower liquidity in these pairs can result in slippage, where the execution price deviates from the expected price at the time of order placement. To mitigate these challenges, traders implement advanced order types, like limit orders, which can potentially further enhance precision in trade execution, and stop-loss orders, which can potentially help limit potential losses.
Key Factors Affecting Cross Currency Rates
When considering major cross currency pairs, traders focus on the specific conditions of the countries involved in the pair.
- Interest Rates: Variances in interest rates between the two countries can significantly impact cross currency rates. Traders often monitor central bank decisions to anticipate interest rate changes.
- Economic Indicators: Economic data, such as GDP growth, employment figures, and inflation rates, play a crucial role in influencing cross currency exchange rates.
- Political Stability: Political events and stability in each country can impact investor confidence, leading to fluctuations in cross currency rates.
Trading Strategies for Forex Cross Currency Pairs
Effective forex strategies that exploit cross rate exchange discrepancies involve some of the most popular technical indicators.
Price Divergence Strategy: EUR/AUD
In this example for the EUR/AUD cross currency pair, traders use the divergence between the price and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator to decide on taking long or short positions. Additionally, the MACD indicator is used to identify precise entry and exit points.
Entry
Traders look for a bearish/bullish divergence between the price and the OBV: the price is moving up/down, while the OBV is moving lower/higher, signalling a potential reversal of price momentum. The MACD line crossing below/above the signal line confirms a potential short or a long entry.
Stop Loss
Stop loss may be placed above/below the recent swing high or low for short and long positions, respectively.
Take Profit
Traders may set a take-profit target at a predefined support/resistance level or when the MACD line shows signs of a potential reversal.
You can visit FXOpen and try out the available technical analysis tools on our free TickTrader trading platform.
Bollinger Bands, Stochastic, and ADX Strategy: GBP/JPY
This strategy is effective in ranging markets. Bollinger Bands help identify price volatility, and the Stochastic Oscillator assists in pinpointing potential reversal points within the range. Traders often include the Average Directional Index (ADX) to assess the strength of the range-bound market.
Entry
Traders may consider a long/short position when the price touches the lower/upper Bollinger Band and then reverses. The signal should be confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator moving above/below the oversold/overbought level, while the ADX should have low values, which confirms the weakness of the current trend.
Stop Loss
Traders may consider placing a stop loss just outside the Bollinger Bands for both long and short positions, taking into account their risk preference.
Take Profit
For long/short positions, traders might take profit when the price touches the opposite Bollinger Band and the Stochastic Oscillator makes a bearish/bullish reversal.
Price Reversal Strategy: EUR/JPY
This strategy aims to identify potential trend reversals based on overbought or oversold conditions as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI).
Entry
Traders may consider entering a long/short position when both RSI and MFI indicate oversold/overbought conditions, typically below 30 and above 70 for RSI and below 20 and above 80 for MFI.
Stop Loss
The theory states that a stop loss may be placed just below/above the recent swing low/high or a significant support/resistance level, depending on the trader’s risk management goals.
Take Profit
Take-profit targets might be based on potential reversals in the opposite direction of the trade, signalled by both RSI and MFI being in the overbought/oversold area.
Final Thoughts
Cross currency trading provides a unique avenue for diversification and strategic opportunities. Understanding the challenges and employing effective strategies involving multiple indicators may empower traders to deal with this complex but rewarding segment of the forex market. You can open an FXOpen account and try your advanced cross currency pairs trading strategies.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Forex Weekly News Digest...Hey Traders!
Hope you’re all doing great. Here’s your latest update on the forex markets, with all the key points, a quick overview of less important stories, and a few insights to help guide you through the rest of the week.
Top Stories:
European Inflation Data: November's preliminary HICP inflation in Europe is up to 2.8% YoY from 2.7%. This bump might throw a wrench in the ECB's plans for rate cuts. They've been hinting at more cuts in December and into 2025, but rising inflation could complicate things.
US Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY is hanging around the 106.00 mark, thanks to the US markets taking a break for Thanksgiving. The Greenback has pulled back from its recent highs, but don’t rush into a bearish stance just yet—short-term traders might get caught off-guard by a quick bounce back.
GBP/USD Movement: GBP/USD is having a hard time making headway but is inching closer to the 1.2700 mark. Keep an eye on the BoE’s upcoming Financial Stability Report for insights on the UK’s economic outlook.
USD/JPY Rebound: USD/JPY has regained some lost ground, bouncing off the 200-day EMA around 150.50. Japanese inflation is expected to tick up to 2.1% for November, from 1.8%. Rising inflation might push the BoJ towards hiking their rock-bottom rates, but watch out for Japan’s unemployment rate, which might creep up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
AUD/USD Stagnation: AUD/USD is stuck near the 0.6500 level, with not much data coming out of Australia. The Aussie seems to be struggling to find its footing and gain momentum.
Quick Glances:
Canada Bread vs. Maple Leaf: Canada Bread’s owner, Grupo Bimbo, is suing Maple Leaf Foods for over $2 billion due to an alleged bread price-fixing scheme. This legal battle could shake up the food industry.
Trump Tariffs: Trump’s tariffs are causing a stir, potentially affecting North American economies. Traders are keeping a close eye on how these tariffs will impact trade relations and market stability.
China's Factory Activity: Good news from China—factory activity is expanding, signaling a potential recovery. This could have positive ripple effects on global trade and economic growth.
Insights for the Week Ahead:
Focus on Inflation Data: Upcoming inflation data from major economies will be crucial. It’s going to influence central bank policies and currency movements. For Europe, core HICP inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.8% YoY in November, which could complicate ECB's rate cut plans.
Monitor Political Events: Keep an eye on political developments that could impact forex markets. Events like the Canada Bread and Maple Leaf Foods legal battle or Trump’s tariffs could sway market sentiment.
Technical Analysis: Don’t forget to use technical indicators to pinpoint entry and exit points. Pay attention to key support and resistance levels, moving averages, and other tools in your trading toolkit..
Top Crypto Gainers This Week So FarTop Crypto Gainers This Week
AIOZ Network (AIOZ) - Up 35.40%
Theta Network (THETA) - Up 23.80%
Brett (Based) (BRETT) - Up 21.20%
Helium (HNT) - Up 19.67%
Tezos (XTZ) - Up 17.98%
Potential Good Investments
AIOZ Network (AIOZ): With a whopping 35.40% gain, AIOZ Network is on a roll. Keep an eye on this one for potential growth.
Theta Network (THETA): Up 23.80%, Theta is making waves with its innovative approach to decentralized video streaming. Could be a solid long-term bet.
Helium (HNT): Gained 19.67% and is building a decentralized wireless network. Definitely worth considering.
Tezos (XTZ): With a 17.98% rise, Tezos offers a self-amending blockchain that’s catching attention. Might be a good addition to your portfolio.
Mindful of Risk
Remember, while these cryptos are showing strong gains, the market can be pretty volatile. Always do your own technical analysis and research before jumping in. Understand the fundamentals, market trends, and potential risks. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Consider chatting with a financial advisor for personalized advice.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on these picks! If you have any questions or are looking for a little advice, feel free to ask. Let’s discuss and make informed decisions together!.
Avoid Betting at the Peak? Here's How Market Breadth HelpWe are Investic Lab, a quant-focused lab dedicated to designing tools that provide clients with actionable insights from quantitative data on global markets. Our tools offer a unique perspective by analyzing market data based on facts—not speculative price predictions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Key Takeaways:
✅ Quantitative Insights Over Predictions:
Our tools explore the concept of "Peaks" using data-driven approaches, offering a distinct advantage compared to traditional predictive models.
✅ Why Market Breadth and DJIA (US30)?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) serves as a leading indicator for our analysis. By examining market breadth, we aim to identify potential short-term bullish weaknesses.
Market Breadth Analysis: Understanding the Red-to-Yellow Zone Transition
📊 Timeframe: Daily (TF Day)
The transition from the Red Zone to the Yellow Zone signals a shift in market dynamics. This change represents 7 to 24 stocks moving above the 20-day EMA, indicating moderate market strength and the emergence of a positive trend.
🔍 Not Bearish, but Weakening Bullish Momentum:
While this transition does not imply bearish conditions, it often reflects short-term bullish weakness.
🎯 Opportunity at or Near the Peak:
We suggest adjusting your Risk/Reward (R/R) to 3:1 to take advantage of this phase, which may represent the peak or near-peak conditions for the short term.
📊 Timeframe: 15 Minutes (TF m15)
For aggressive traders monitoring intraday price movements, we recommend incorporating Bollinger Bands into your strategy. Focus on the average line of the Bollinger Bands, which can serve as a reliable reference for trade setups.
✅ Use the Average Line for Entry Decisions:
If you're experienced with Bollinger Bands, rely on the average line as your primary guide. Either, If you’re unsure about Bollinger Band parameters, substitute the 39-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line for a clear trend-following signal.
Risk Management Reminder:
⚠️ Trading Against the Trend:
This strategy goes against the prevailing bullish market trend, which inherently carries more risk. If the price doesn’t move as expected, cut your losses and wait for the next trade setup.
💡 Opportunities Always Await:
Missed trades are part of the process. Stay disciplined—there will always be new opportunities ahead!
How Traders Use Support and Resistance Indicators in TradingHow Traders Use Support and Resistance Indicators in Trading Strategies
In the dynamic realm of trading, traders employ a variety of tools to navigate the continually evolving market landscape. Among these, support and resistance stand out as pivotal instruments, aiding traders in understanding important price levels on the charts. This article seeks to explore the indicators for support and resistance, offering insights into how they can be used to analyse market changes.
Why Traders Use Support and Resistance Levels
By effectively utilising support and resistance trading strategies, traders may enhance their decision-making processes. Here is why traders use these trading tools:
- Entry Points: Support and resistance are crucial in identifying optimal entry points for trades. When the price approaches support, traders anticipate a potential upward reversal, providing a buying opportunity. Conversely, when the price nears a resistance, traders may look for signs of a downward reversal, indicating a potential selling point.
- Trend Identification: The levels may aid in identifying market trends. When the price consistently finds support at higher levels, it indicates an uptrend. Conversely, if the price continually hits resistance at lower levels, it suggests a downtrend. When the price rebounds from horizontal levels, it indicates a consolidation range.
- Stop Loss and Take Profit: Support and resistance help traders determine where to place their stop-loss and take-profit orders. By setting a stop-loss just below/above support/resistance, traders can potentially limit their losses if the price breaks below support/resistance. Similarly, placing a take-profit order just below/above a resistance/support may help secure potential returns before a market reversal.
Trading Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance act as psychological barriers where price action tends to stall, reverse, or accelerate. Here is how traders may trade with them:
- Reversals: Trading reversals involve implementing the entry points concept mentioned above. For instance, if the price bounces off support, traders might enter a long position, expecting the market to rise. Conversely, if the price reverses at resistance, traders might enter a short position, anticipating a drop.
- Breakouts: Breakout trading occurs when the price moves decisively through support or resistance. Traders enter trades in the direction of the breakout, expecting the market to continue moving the same way. A breakout above resistance may signal the start of an upward trend, while a breakdown below support could indicate the beginning of a downward trend.
Support and Resistance Indicators
Various technical indicators are used to identify the major support and resistance points. The TickTrader trading platform by FXOpen has all the major indicators needed to find these levels on a chart. Let us go through the most popular ones in detail and explain how traders can use them.
Pivot Points
Pivot points are a popular technical indicator used in trading to analyse market trends and strong reversal points across various financial instruments, such as stocks, currencies, and commodities. Although there are many types of pivot points, the main idea is that they are calculated using the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period to determine key levels: the central pivot point, support, and resistance.
How to Use Pivot Points
Traders may use the pivot points for the following:
1. Breakout Trading: A bullish breakout involves entering a buy trade when the price breaks above the pivot point (P) or the first resistance (R1) and closes above it, targeting the next resistance (R2). Conversely, a bearish breakout involves entering a sell trade when the price breaks below the pivot point (P) or the first support (S1) and closes below it, targeting the next support (S2).
2. Reversal Trading: A bullish reversal strategy involves entering a buy trade when the price stalls above S1 or S2 without breaking below it, with the pivot point as the first target. Similarly, a bearish reversal strategy involves entering a sell trade when the price stalls below R1 or R2 without breaking above it, targeting the P level.
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, used by traders to identify potential support and resistance points. The Fibonacci sequence starts at 0 and 1, with each subsequent number being the sum of the previous two. Key ratios derived from this sequence, such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, are used to determine key market points.
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements
These are the most common ways to use the Fibonacci retracements:
- Trend Continuation: In trending markets, Fibonacci retracements are essential for identifying potential support and resistance points. In an uptrend, the market often pulls back to the 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% level before continuing its upward movement, with these points acting as support. Conversely, in a downtrend, the market typically retraces to these same levels before resuming its downward trajectory, where they serve as resistance.
- Reversals: Traders combine Fibonacci retracements with other technical analysis tools like candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer and shooting star) and chart patterns (e.g., triangles and wedges) for additional confirmation. You may monitor how the price reacts at the Fibonacci retracements. If it closes through the Fibs cleanly, it's less likely to reverse. If it shows signs of rejection (e.g., long wicks), the level is more likely to hold.
Moving Average
Moving averages (MAs) are some of the commonly used indicators. They have many use cases, including identifying support and resistance points. MAs calculate an asset's average price over a specified period, continuously updating and recalculating as new data points become available. This allows them to smooth market fluctuations. Also, the MA is a lagging indicator, which allows it to provide insights into trend strength.
How to Use Moving Averages
Moving averages are versatile tools and can be used in various ways to potentially enhance trading strategies.
- Support and Resistance: The MA acts as a dynamic support/resistance based on the price position relative to it. Traders consider it support if the price is below it and resistance if the price is above it.
- Crossovers: Crossovers between two MAs with different periods can help traders strengthen the signals of the support/resistance levels as they reflect changes in market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
Donchian Channel
The Donchian Channel indicator is a straightforward yet powerful tool for traders. It consists of three lines on a chart: an upper boundary (highest high over N periods), a lower boundary (lowest low over N periods), and a midpoint line ((Upper Boundary + Lower Boundary) / 2). Typically set to 20 periods by default, N can be adjusted to increase responsiveness or reduce noise based on market conditions.
How to Use the Donchian Channel
Traders may use the indicator as follows:
1. Trading Breakouts: Upper and lower boundaries serve as support and resistance. Traders look for the price breaking above the middle line to open buy trades and close them near the upper boundary and vice versa.
2. Identifying Reversals: Traders may close long positions near upper boundaries and short trades near lower boundaries before the market reverses. Multiple touches increase the strength of support and resistance.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a middle band (typically a 20-period simple moving average), an upper band (20-period simple moving average + (20-period standard deviation of price * 2)), and a lower band (20-period simple moving average - (20-period standard deviation of price * 2)). These bands adjust based on market volatility, expanding during periods of high volatility periods and contracting during periods of low volatility.
How to Use Bollinger Bands
Traders may use the Bollinger Bands to determine entry and exit points as upper and lower bands serve as support and resistance:
- Trend Trading: Traders can buy near the lower band in an uptrend and sell near the upper band in a downtrend.
- Range Trading: Traders look for buy signals near the lower band and sell signals near the upper band when the market consolidates within a narrow range.
Final Thoughts
Incorporating support and resistance analysis alongside fundamental analysis is crucial for a well-rounded market perspective. Remember, trading carries inherent risks, so it's vital to employ effective risk management strategies. As you refine your analytical approach and gain confidence in your trading abilities, consider leveraging your strategy across 600+ instruments by opening an FXOpen account.
FAQ
What Is the Support and Resistance Concept in Forex?
Support and resistance in forex refer to levels where a currency pair often encounters barriers to moving lower (support) or higher (resistance). These are crucial for traders in making decisions about entering or exiting the market.
How Can I Find Support and Resistance?
To find support and resistance, traders analyse historical data. They look for areas where the price repeatedly reversed or stalled, often using tools like trendlines, pivot points, and moving averages.
How Can I Identify Strong Support and Resistance?
Strong support and resistance are identified by multiple price bounces or reversals occurring at the same level over time. The more times the market has reacted at a particular level, the stronger that level is considered. However, it may also mark that point as prone to breaking in the future.
How Can I Trade Support and Resistance?
Trading support involves buying when the price approaches this level with the expectation that it will bounce higher. Trading resistance involves selling when the price approaches this level with the expectation that it will reverse lower.
Is Supply and Demand the Same As Support and Resistance?
While related, supply and demand zones and support and resistance levels are not the same. Support and resistance focus on specific levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) pressure is concentrated, whereas supply and demand zones encompass broader areas influenced by market orders.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How I identify the best forex pairs to trade: (2)Here is how I identify the best forex pairs to trade: (Publication #2 / Update)
In the top left panel, the indicator 'Compare Forex' displays the PERFORMANCE of each major currency.
The USD (red line) has been the strongest currency for the past 2 months on H6 charts.
By identifying the strongest currency, all that remains is to trade the USD against all the other currencies since they are weaker.
= Smooth stress-free charts.
I look at my trades 2-3 times a day to see if they are still blue or red. Takes a few minutes.
__
DEC 1st UPDATE: Last week, the JPY became the strongest performing currency. The JPY (yellow line) crossed above the USD (red line). When the performance of the USD became weaker than the JPY = The USDJPY PAIR turned down.
The Psychology of Wealth
🔸The psychology of wealth centers on cultivating a mindset that aligns your thoughts, beliefs, and actions with abundance, financial success, and prosperity.
🔸The affirmations you’ve mentioned—such as "money comes easily," "I deserve success," and "I’m in control of my future"—are key components of a wealth-oriented mindset. This approach isn’t just about positive thinking; it’s about rewiring your brain, creating empowering habits, and developing the emotional resilience needed to achieve financial and personal success.
🔸Here’s a breakdown of how these affirmations and principles relate to the psychology of wealth:
1. "Money Comes Easily"
▪️Belief in Ease and Flow: This statement fosters a belief that financial opportunities are abundant and accessible. When you believe money can come easily, you’re more likely to notice opportunities, attract resources, and act on them confidently.
▪️Shift from Scarcity to Abundance: Many people operate with a scarcity mindset, feeling money is hard to earn. By affirming that money comes easily, you break free from this limiting belief and open yourself to creative solutions and ideas.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Identify opportunities in your field or new markets.
▪️Develop skills that make earning money simpler and more sustainable.
2. "I Deserve Success"
▪️Self-Worth and Wealth: Believing you deserve success ties your financial achievements to your sense of self-worth. If you subconsciously feel undeserving, you may sabotage your efforts or settle for less.
▪️Breaking Limiting Beliefs: Many people are conditioned by childhood experiences or societal expectations to believe success is reserved for others. Reaffirming that you deserve success challenges these limiting beliefs.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Reflect on past achievements and recognize your value.
▪️Engage in self-care and personal growth activities to reinforce your worthiness.
3. "There Is an Abundance of Money"
▪️Abundance Mentality: This statement helps shift from a scarcity mindset to an abundance mindset. Believing there’s enough wealth for everyone fosters collaboration, innovation, and generosity.
▪️Law of Attraction: When you focus on abundance, you’re more likely to act in ways that attract wealth and prosperity into your life.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Practice gratitude daily to focus on what you already have.
▪️Seek out stories or examples of abundance to reinforce this belief.
4. "Nothing Can Stop Me from Success"
▪️Resilience and Determination: This affirmation builds a mindset of resilience and perseverance. It reminds you that challenges are temporary and that you have the power to overcome obstacles.
▪️Reframing Failure: By adopting this belief, you view setbacks as opportunities to learn and grow, rather than insurmountable barriers.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Break big goals into manageable steps to maintain momentum.
▪️Develop a "growth mindset," where challenges are viewed as essential for improvement.
5. "I’m in Control of My Future"
▪️Empowerment and Responsibility: This belief emphasizes personal accountability and the ability to influence your financial destiny. It counters feelings of helplessness and external blame.
▪️Focus on What You Can Control: While you can’t control every external event, you can control your reactions, decisions, and efforts.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Set clear financial and personal goals.
▪️Continuously educate yourself about wealth-building strategies, such as investing, saving, and entrepreneurship.
Final Thoughts
The psychology of wealth is about more than financial gain—it’s about cultivating a mindset of abundance, gratitude, and empowerment. By believing that money comes easily, you deserve success, and you are in control of your future, you set the stage for proactive behaviors and sustained growth. Pair these beliefs with practical strategies, and you’ll find yourself on a path toward financial freedom and personal fulfillment.
What Is a Standard Deviation, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a Standard Deviation, and How Can You Use It in Trading?
Understanding market volatility is essential for effective trading, and one of the most valuable tools for measuring it is standard deviation. This gauge quantifies the dispersion of asset prices around their mean and provides insights into the variability and potential risk associated with a financial instrument.
This article delves into what standard deviation is, its calculation, interpretation, practical implementation, and its limitations.
What Is Standard Deviation?
Standard deviation is a statistical measure that quantifies the dispersion or variability of a set of data points relative to their mean. In trading, it is used to assess the volatility of a financial instrument. A higher standard deviation indicates greater variability in prices, suggesting more significant swings, while a lower value suggests smaller price fluctuations.
For instance, consider two stocks: Stock A and Stock B. If Stock A’s standard deviation is 5 and Stock B’s is 15, Stock B exhibits more price variability. This means that Stock B fluctuates more widely around the mean compared to Stock A, and its volatility level is higher.
Understanding the standard deviation of a stock or other asset helps traders evaluate its associated value. Assets with high standard deviations are considered riskier as their prices are hardly analysed, whereas assets with low deviations might be seen as potentially safer.
Volatility vs Standard Deviation
While both terms are related, volatility refers to the degree of variation in an asset's price over time, whereas standard deviation quantifies this variation statistically. The former is the broader concept, encompassing the overall fluctuations, while the latter provides a precise numerical measure of these fluctuations, offering traders a clearer understanding of market behaviour and risk.
Calculating Standard Deviation
Calculating standard deviation involves a series of straightforward steps. Here's how traders can calculate it using a set of price data:
1. Gather Data: Collect the closing prices of the asset over a specified period. For example, use the closing prices for the past 10 days.
2. Calculate the Mean: Add up all the closing prices and divide by the number of prices to find the average (mean) price.
Mean = ∑ Price /Number of Prices
3. Determine the Deviations: Subtract the mean from each closing price to find the deviation of each price from the mean.
Deviation = Price − Mean
4. Square the Deviations: Square each deviation to ensure all values are positive.
Squared Deviation = (Price − Mean)^2
5. Calculate the Average of Squared Deviations: Add up all the squared deviations and divide by the number of prices minus one (this adjustment, known as Bessel's correction, is used for a sample).
Variance = (∑(Price − Mean)^2) / (Number of Prices − 1)
6. Take the Square Root: Find the square root of the variance to get the standard deviation.
Standard Deviation = √Variance
Example Calculation
Assume we have the closing prices for a stock over 5 days: $20, $22, $21, $23, and $22.
1. Mean: (20 + 22 + 21 + 23 + 22) / 5 = 21.6
2. Deviations: −1.6, 0.4, −0.6, 1.4, 0.4
3. Squared Deviations: 2.56, 0.16, 0.36, 1.96, 0.16
4. Variance: (2.56 +0.16 +0.36 + 1.96 + 0.16) / 4 = 1.3
5. Stock’s Standard Deviation: √1.3 ≈1.14
Interpreting Standard Deviation in Trading
Standard deviation in trading offers deep insights into the statistical behaviour of asset prices, aiding traders in making informed decisions.
Volatility Analysis
- Normal Distribution: A normal distribution, also known as a bell curve, is a common statistical pattern where most data points cluster around the mean, with fewer occurrences as you move away from the mean. Within a normal distribution, roughly 68% of data should be within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% inside of two standard deviations, and 99.7% inside of three standard deviations.
- Trading Insight: By observing this measure, traders can estimate the likelihood of movements within certain ranges. For instance, if a stock’s daily return has a mean of 0.5% and a deviation of 2%, traders can expect that around 68% of the time, the stock’s daily return will be between -1.5% and 2.5%.
Market Sentiment
- Rising: An increasing standard deviation can signal growing uncertainty or a transition period in the market. It might precede major news events, economic changes, or market corrections. Traders often watch for rising volatility as a precursor to market shifts, adjusting their positions accordingly.
- Falling: A decreasing standard deviation can indicate calming markets or consolidation phases, where prices move around a mean. This might suggest that the market is absorbing recent volatility, leading to potential trend formation. Traders may see this as a period to prepare for future directional moves.
Risk Assessment
- Portfolio Management: The measure helps in assessing the risk level of an asset or portfolio. A higher value in a portfolio suggests greater overall risk, prompting traders to diversify or adjust their holdings to manage exposure.
- Comparative Analysis: By comparing the standard deviation of different assets, traders can identify which securities align with their risk tolerance. For instance, a conservative trader might prefer assets with lower standard deviations for their smaller price fluctuations.
Performance Evaluation
- Sharpe Ratio: Standard deviation is a key component in calculating the Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns. A lower figure, in conjunction with a high return, indicates better performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Traders use this to compare the efficiency of different investments.
Indicators Using Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a fundamental tool in trading, utilised in various indicators to assess volatility and inform strategies. To explore the indicators discussed below and apply them to live charts, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Standard Deviation Indicator
- Description: The standard deviation indicator directly displays an asset’s standard deviation on a chart. It visually represents the deviation of the asset over a specified period.
- Interpretation: When the value is high, the market is experiencing more significant swings. Conversely, a low deviation suggests a market with less fluctuation. Traders often use this indicator to gauge the current volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Bollinger Bands
- Description: Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a simple moving average (SMA) in the middle and two standard deviation lines (one above and one below the SMA).
- Interpretation: The width of the bands reflects volatility. When the bands widen, it indicates increased volatility, while narrowing bands suggest the opposite. Bollinger Bands are commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. Prices touching the upper band may signal an overbought market, while prices touching the lower band may indicate an oversold market. Traders use this information to make decisions about potential entry or exit points.
Relative Volatility Index
- Description: The Relative Volatility Index (RVI) uses the standard deviation of high and low prices over a specified period to measure volatility.
- Interpretation: The RVI is used to measure the volatility of a financial instrument, comparing price changes to price ranges over a specified period. It helps traders identify potential trend reversals or continuations by signalling periods of heightened or diminished market activity.
Practical Implementation of Standard Deviation in Trading
Traders utilise this statistical measure for several practical applications to enhance their trading strategies and risk management.
Risk Management
It helps in setting price targets and stop-loss levels. By understanding the typical price range, traders can place stop-loss orders beyond the expected range to avoid premature exits. For example, if the expected deviation is $2, a stop-loss might be set at $4 away from the entry level to account for typical fluctuations.
On the other hand, a trader may extend or tighten their profit target based on the market’s standard deviation. If it indicates volatility is low, they might prefer to set a target closer to the current price vs in a highly volatile market.
Evaluating Positions
When choosing or evaluating a potential position, traders might consider this measure to gauge expected volatility. A higher value signals higher potential market swings, indicating more risk. This may help in aligning trades with individual risk tolerance levels.
Identifying Extreme Price Movements
Bollinger Bands are particularly useful here. These bands are set at a distance of two or three standard deviations from a moving average. Movements outside these bands indicate extreme values. For instance, a spike beyond three standard deviations occurs only 0.03% of the time in a normal distribution, suggesting a strong signal. Traders might view a breach above the upper band as a potential selling point and a breach below the lower band as a buying opportunity.
Limitations of Standard Deviation
While standard deviation is a valuable tool in trading, it has certain limitations:
- Assumes Normal Distribution: It presumes data follows a normal distribution, which isn't always true in financial markets where extreme events can occur more frequently.
- Historical Data Dependence: It relies on historical data to define future volatility, potentially missing unforeseen market changes.
- Ignores Direction: It reflects volatility but doesn't indicate the direction of market movements, making it less useful for trend analysis.
- Sensitivity to Outliers: Extreme values can skew the measure, leading to inaccurate volatility assessments.
- Not a Standalone Tool: It should be used alongside other indicators and analysis techniques to provide a comprehensive market view.
The Bottom Line
Understanding and utilising standard deviation is vital for effective trading and risk management. By incorporating this measure, traders can better analyse volatility and make informed decisions. To apply these insights in real-world trading, open an FXOpen account and start leveraging advanced tools and strategies today.
FAQs
Is Volatility the Same as Standard Deviation?
Volatility and standard deviation are related but not identical. Volatility relates to how much variation exists in an asset’s price over a period of time. Standard deviation is a statistical measure used to quantify this volatility. Essentially, it provides a numeric value for volatility, indicating how much an asset's price deviates from its average.
How to Calculate the Volatility of a Stock?
To calculate stock volatility, traders determine the standard deviation of its returns over a specific period. They collect the daily closing prices, calculate the daily returns, and then compute the standard deviation of these returns. This gives the annualised volatility, reflecting the stock's fluctuation rate.
What Is a Good Standard Deviation for a Stock?
A "good" standard deviation depends on the trader’s risk tolerance and strategy. Lower values might suggest potentially less risk and less market fluctuation, suitable for conservative traders. Higher values indicate greater risk and potential reward, appealing to risk-tolerant traders. Generally, it’s best to seek a balance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in Trading
Introduction
The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use.
Success Rate and Performance
-Key Statistics
Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets
Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend
-Breakout Direction
Bearish: 60% of cases
Bullish: 40% of cases
Contextual Reliability
Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38%
After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9%
Important Considerations
The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal.
Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation.
Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial.
Complementary Indicators
-Volume
Gradual decrease during formation
Significant increase during breakout
-Oscillators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions
Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences
-Moving Averages
Crossovers: Signal trend changes
-Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge
-Momentum Indicators
MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences
Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend
-Other Elements
Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance
Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals
Conclusion
The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance.
_______________________________________________
Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner:
-The confirmed breakout
Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge.
Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity.
-The retest
Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance.
Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend.
-The post-breakout consolidation
Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout.
Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend.
-The confirmed divergences
Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD.
Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support.
-Timing with Japanese Candlesticks
Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud.
Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern.
-Important Considerations
Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively.
Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade
Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade.
Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions.
By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
Silver Anatomy: Elliot Wave Insights PT IIGreetings, Everyone
In part two of our silver update, I will dive into the structures of Elliott Wave Theory, focusing on Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves.
Let’s break down these components for a deeper understanding.
Understanding the Types of Waves
Impulse Waves (1-3-5)
Impulse waves are powerful, directional moves characterized by strong momentum. These waves typically occur in the direction of the main trend, with Wave 3 often being the most dominant.
Corrective Waves (2-4)
Corrective waves are pauses or pullbacks in the trend, often seen as sideways price action. They take forms such as:
• Flat Patterns
• Triangles
• Zigzags (a sharp, back-and-forth movement).
Using RSI to Analyze Waves
The RSI provides valuable insight into wave structures:
• Vertical lines mark the RSI peaks corresponding to major impulse waves.
• Colored boxes on the RSI panel highlight key areas to watch.
Key Impulse Wave Rules
• Wave 1: Marks the beginning of the trend reversal, confirmed by the RSI breaking above the zero line and the histogram turning green.
• Wave 3: Typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence.
Key Corrective Wave Rules
• Wave 2: Does not retrace 100% of Wave 1. In this case, note how the RSI dips below the previous impulse level. An expanded flat pattern with a large B-wave exceeding the prior impulse is also evident.
• Wave 4: Should not close below the level of Wave 1.
Rule of Alternation
• If Wave 2 is simple (small), then Wave 4 will likely be complex (large), and vice versa.
Support and Resistance Dynamics
Observe the green boxes in the price chart marking major pivot points, which often signal the end of corrective waves. These pivots align with critical support and resistance levels, frequently igniting substantial rallies thereafter.
Analyzing Bias & Executing
Trading Probability
In my enthusiasm, I anticipated a significant breakout (bias) at the triangle peak of Wave 5, as outlined in my second silver trading post.
I had drawn a triangle breakout expecting an upward move. While my bias led me to the wrong conclusion, my analysis itself wasn’t incorrect—the triangle did break out, but it moved to the downside instead against by bias.
As previously mentioned, when a pattern fails, it often leads to dramatic price action in the opposite direction.
For those who stayed objective and followed the chart rather than their bias, this presented a prime opportunity.
The downside breakout retraced the entire impulse cycle in a remarkably short period of time, showcasing the power of trading without assumptions. It leads to question how can we stay objective while in these trades?
The answer I found is to always be referencing key manual & guides.
Fibonacci Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer provides a valuable solution to the dilemma I encountered (not sponsored or paid, by the way).
In one section, Fischer mentions that “following the Elliott wave concept will lead you to not buy in an uptrend at the end of Wave 3.”
To elaborated more on this idea — it is best to avoid buying wave 4s because Wave 5 is sometimes truncated or fails to materialize altogether, leading to a price reversal.
This insight answers many questions about why wave 5 is so difficult to trade. Will it extend, will it be shorter? Will it be a .618 measurement of wave 1, 1 exact measurement of wave 1, will it extend to 1.618, or will it fail?
One key rule he emphasizes is that, in an Elliott Wave cycle, only three waves may exist under certain conditions—challenging the assumption of a full five-wave sequence.
Trading Strategy Improvements
1. Enter at Wave 2 Retracement Levels
• Focus on taking a large position at Wave 2 retracement levels, but only after confirmation of a reversal.
(Human tendency): We often experience FOMO when prices are high. However, history shows that chasing during high-FOMO moments usually signals a peak. Patience pays off at retracement levels.
2. Pyramid Positions During Wave 3
• Gradually scale aggressively into your position as Wave 3 begins moving with strong momentum. This allows you to capitalize on the high-octane movement of the impulse wave by adding to a winning trade.
3. Exit Around Wave 3.3 or 3.5
• Scale out of your position during the middle or later part of Wave 3. Exiting while the momentum remains strong ensures you lock in gains before the trend begins to fade.
Conclusion
By combining Elliott Wave Theory with RSI analysis, we gain clearer insight into market dynamics, helping us anticipate potential turning points with greater confidence.
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 3Question: I'm having a problem with finding the MC candle. What should I do?
Answer:
There are 3 distinct signs for us to know for a fact that we are in a ranging market which has been started from shaping an MC candle:
1. Inability for the price to make a new stBoS (seeing wBoS or no BoS at all).
2. For the second time, seeing a cycle of Pump&Dump happening.
3. Price cross and close both EMAs in the opposite direction of the previous minor trend.
Whenever we observe any of these three signs, it indicates that we are already in a ranging market. We should look to the left to identify our MC candle, which is usually the very first Pump & Dump that occurred recently.
For Ethereum to continue its uptrend, the Pump & Dump cycle must end. The price should not drop again in the ranging area.
Using Bollinger Bands to Gauge Market Trends and Volatility The US Thanksgiving holiday usually marks a quieter period for trading, as US financial markets are closed on Thursday and US traders often take the Friday off as a holiday to benefit from a long weekend. This can see both lower volume and volatility, so we thought we’d take this time to outline one of our favourite technical indicators, called Bollinger Bands.
The aim is to increase your knowledge of a new indicator you may consider worth knowing, ahead of the first week of December, which is packed full of important events that may kick start markets moving again into the end of 2024.
We intend to highlight how Bollinger Bands can potentially be applied to help read both current trending and volatility conditions for any asset.
To help with this, we are using the US 500 index as an example to outline the type of band set-ups you can consider using within your day-to-day analysis and trading.
What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger bands are made of 3 lines – the mid-average, upper and lower band (see chart above).
The mid-average is a 20 period moving average, with the upper and lower bands calculated using 2 standard deviations either side of the mid-average.
If you are unsure of the concept or how to calculate 2 standard deviations, please don’t worry, the Pepperstone charting system will do this automatically for you and add them to the chart of any asset you may wish to analyse.
The mid-average is used to reflect the direction of the on-going trending condition of a market. If its rising, an uptrend is in place, while if it’s falling, a downtrend is evident.
How the bands act in relation to the mid-average is key when using Bollinger bands. They can often offer important confirmation of the trend and can show if acceleration phases in the price of a particular asset may be seen within that trend.
The most important thing to know about Bollinger bands is that they react to increasing volatility within price. Periods of increasing volatility see both bands widening away from the mid-average, while if volatility is decreasing, they contract or draw closer to the mid-average.
Let’s look at this further.
What Set-Ups are We Looking For and What Do They Mean?
There are 5 set-ups to be aware of when using Bollinger bands and each offer clues to the next activity in the price of a particular asset.
1st: Volatility Increasing Within a Confirmed Trend:
When the mid-average is either rising (to highlight an uptrend) or falling (to reflect a downtrend), and the bands are widening to show increasing volatility within that trend, alongside the upper band being touched in an uptrend, or within a downtrend, the lower band being touched.
When all the above conditions are evident, the potential is for that move to extend further than perhaps anticipated.
On the US 500 Index chart above, the green arrows mark when these more aggressive trending conditions are in place.
2nd: Volatility Decreasing Within a Confirmed Trend:
Where the mid-average is either rising (uptrend) or falling (downtrend), and the bands are contracting reflecting decreasing volatility within that trend.
When these set-ups are in place, the speed of the recent directional move is slowing, and the possibilities are increasing for a consolidation in price.
During this period, we may want to consider reducing or closing positions and reverting to the side lines, as a setback could materialise, as a reaction to the latest move.
On the chart above, red arrows mark these consolidation periods.
3rd: Mid-Average Support/Resistance Holds Within Corrective Moves:
Within these corrective or recovery phases after periods of increasing volatility and widening bands, we must watch how the mid-average support or resistance is defended.
If the mid-average is rising, highlighting an uptrend and holding price weakness, it may resume the direction of the original trend. Similarly, when the mid-average is falling, highlighting a downtrend and holding price strength, it may continue in the same direction. However, past trends and technical indicators are not reliable predictors of future performance, and market conditions can change unexpectedly.
On the new chart above, these points are marked by the blue vertical arrows.
4th: Trend Channels Form Between Mid-Average and Upper/Lower Band:
When the rising mid-average holds as suggested in the third set-up above, this can see uptrend or downtrend channels form in price.
In an uptrend, the rising mid-average holds price weakness and turns it higher.
While this still sees price strength, volatility doesn’t increase but remains steady, reflected by rising parallel bands and support continues to be found by the rising mid-average.
However, resistance materialises following tests of the upper band, for a setback towards the support of the still rising mid-average.
This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks below the support offered by the rising mid-average.
On the latest chart above, this is marked by the purple arrows.
When the declining mid-average holds price strength, as suggested in the 3rd set-up above, this can see a downtrend channel form in price.
In a downtrend, the declining mid-average holds price strength and turns it back lower.
While this scenario still sees price weakness, volatility remains steady and doesn’t increase, reflected by the declining bands being parallel, and resistance continues to be found by the falling mid-average.
However, tests of the lower band see support materialise and a rally in price ensues towards resistance marked by the still falling mid-average.
This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks above resistance offered by the falling mid-average.
This situation is the opposite of the chart above.
5th: Mid-Average Broken to See More Extended Rally/Sell-Off:
Mid-average support or resistance gives way, but while price weakness or strength develops, the direction of the average doesn’t change.
This sees a limited move in the direction of the mid-average break.
During price weakness, if the mid-average continues to rise, the lower band can act as a support level and prompt a rally.
During price strength, if the mid-average continues to fall, the upper band acts as a resistance level from which price weakness can emerge again.
These signals are marked by the green rectangles in the chart above.
It is important to note in this example, if an upper or lower bands is touched and then both bands start to widen alongside the mid-average changing direction, then this is highlighting the 1st set up described above, meaning we are observing increasing volatility within what is a new trending condition.
In this situation, we may need to consider adjusting our trading strategy to reflect this new directional shift in price.
Conclusion:
While past signals within Bollinger Bands are not a guarantee of future signals, by utilising the set-ups described above, they may offer an indication of the latest trending conditions in the price of a particular asset.
More importantly, they help to highlight when increasing volatility is materialising and when more sustained price moves are possibly on the cards, in the direction of the on-going trend.
Also, they show when decreasing volatility can result in a period of consolidation and a reaction to the recent move due.
Take a look at the Pepperstone charting system and consider whether Bollinger Bands may help you establish the next directional moves for the asset you’re trading.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
How TradingView Helps Me Not Miss TradesHey,
In this video I provide several examples that help me to not miss any trading opportunities and provide me more clarity and confidence in my trading. I share my trading style, the usage of tradingview alerts and multi-timeframe analysis to time it right.
Often traders struggle with missing trades, this is why you might miss them:
- Lack of confidence
- Lack of chart time
- Lack of knowledge
If you solve them one by one, your trading performance can improve fast.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 2This is how we see the market. Only in three places can we see a minor trend. All in between is just price consolidation because it is a ranging market. And we expect it to happen after spotting candle "X"! For more information, please refer to Part One .
When we spot a Master Candle (MC), We expect erratic behaviour from the price. Look at the white arrows to grasp what I mean by this. This is normal for us in ARZ Trading System analyses!
In fact, in a ranging market, we are looking for the price to behave like this to combine it with BB and hunt the best reversal trading positions.
If the price managed to stay above LTP & EMAs, we expect this pump and dump cycle to continue in the range area.
US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction
The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions.
◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities
● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities.
● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns.
● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices.
◉ Corporate Financing Costs
● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies.
● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations.
● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively.
◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics
● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship.
● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns.
● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500.
◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations
● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth.
● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings.
● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds.
◉ Historical Context and Trends
● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows.
● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth.
● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives.
◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields
● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields.
● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds.
● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities.
◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis
The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously.
This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of:
● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth.
● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity.
● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth.
On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise.
◉ Conclusion
The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
How To Use Multi-Timeframe AnalysisHey,
In this video, I dive into the methods of multi-timeframe analysis, exploring how to use daily, weekly, and monthly charts alongside intraday charts like the 4-hour to gain a clearer picture of price movement.
Multi-timeframe analysis helps you view the same data through different lenses, allowing you to make predictions across various time horizons.
For example, a weekly trend or a monthly move can appear as a complete trend on lower timeframes.
By integrating these perspectives, you can better understand what price action is indicating and make informed decisions.
Kind regards,
Max
GOLD: Trump tariff threat lift XAAUSD, focus shift to Fed Mints Fundamental Overview🌐
➡️Gold buyers try their luck ahead of Fed Minutes
Gold price extended the previous day’s corrective downside and reached multi-day lows before drawing strong support from a fresh flight to safety wave, triggered by the latest post by US President-elect Donald Trump on Truth Social.
➡️Trump pledged to announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes over his office on January 20. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Australia warned that “US policy on trade with China and other countries will have an impact.”
➡️Mounting concerns surrounding a looming global trade war dent risk sentiment, ramping safe-haven flows into the US Dollar (USD) and the traditional safety bet Gold price. However, the renewed USD demand and rebounding US Treasury bond yields limit Gold buyers’ enthusiasm as they await the Fed Minutes for fresh signals on the expected December interest rate cut.
➡️CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month.
➡️Additionally, waning geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a headwind for the bright metal. A senior Israeli official told Reuters on Monday that the Israeli cabinet will convene on Tuesday to approve a Lebanon ceasefire deal. Another Israeli official told Reuters the cabinet would convene to discuss a deal that could be cemented in the coming days.
➡️Gold price was thrown under the bus on Monday even as the USD and the US Treasury bond yields fell sharply on the news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.
➡️Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US bond market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part TwoIn this section, we will combine minor structure and momentum, along with MC and Bollinger Bands.
We observed an uptrend, and then suddenly Candle "A" appeared. This indicates that the previous candle is a strong candidate for becoming an MC for us. Now, we need to analyze the market for signs that it may be transitioning into a ranging market.
As we see:
- Price movement from #1 to #2, is the same as #2 to #3. No momentum in a specific direction which is a clear sign of a ranging market. It confirmed MC for us.
- The movement from #3 to #4 has just reversed the previous bearish candle. Nothing much. Again we are inside a ranging market.
- Movement from #4 to #5 is equal to #5 to #6. Again it's ranging! Awesome!
- Candle #7 is good for ranging, and we expect such sharp movements in a ranging market. But we do not expect a continuation of strong downward movement after it. If such a thing happens and could break both the low of candle #7 and the LTP level, we expect the price to continue a downtrend and create a stBoS downward in the future.
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part OneWhen analyzing momentum, the most important question to consider is: Where should I focus my analysis of momentum?
Many traders often find themselves confused by the concept of "momentum" as they try to derive meaning from every single candlestick movement.
The straightforward answer is: Analyze momentum when the price is at key levels or is getting close to them! In particular, for minor structures (trends), you should pay close attention to momentum near the 13 and 20 EMAs, as we do in ARZ Trading System.
Keynotes: a minor trend is still valid, if these two key points are continuously happening:
1. We always expect a loss of momentum for price when approaching the key levels, and gaining momentum when it's moving away from them, in the direction of the trend.
2. A very important sign of gaining momentum is crossing and closing the whole previous candle(s).
Let's analyze this chart:
- It is obvious that candles #1 to #3 are showing a loss of momentum, but they are far from key levels and it just might mean a retracement, which happened. But again it might not retrace at all!
- from #3 to #4, we see price is gaining momentum, which is not good! so both key levels could easily break, which happened. But again in #5 and #6, we see the price losing momentum in the opposite direction of the previous downtrend, and gaining it in the direction of the minor downtrend. so everything is good.
- Again #7 confirms the momentum in the direction of minor downtrend.
- In retracement up until #8, the price is gaining momentum upward, which is not good. But candles #9 through #10 again are in our favour.
- the correction to #11 is not looking good for a downtrend, and in the next candles, to #13 we are not convinced that sellers are stronger. So, we are cautious here. And the price finally gains momentum upward and we reach #14.
- From #15 to #16, momentum is the same for both buyers and sellers. It is a tight range and can do nothing until we see a clear sign of gaining momentum (or losing) in one direction. And the sign came in the shape of candle #17. If this tight range were to continue, it should have been a bullish strong candle.
How the Head and Shoulders Pattern Alerts the End of a Trend🔵 How the Head and Shoulders Pattern Alerts the End of a Trend
NSE:NIFTY formed a Head and shoulders pattern this summer.
This is one of the most important patterns when it happens after a long bull or bear trend because a trend change or at least a large neutral period is likely to happen.
The pattern is often poorly drawn, and investors make bad decisions due to a lack of knowledge about Head and Shoulders patterns.
At TopChartPatterns, we let an AI to find the patterns, so we just need to decide where and when to trade the pattern.
✅ When is a Head and Shoulders pattern confirmed?
A head and shoulders MUST never be traded before the support line (blue) is broken . If the line is not broken, there is NO head and shoulders unfolding.
Once the price breaks below the blue support line, a short trade with tight stop losses should be initiated.
💰 How to trade this chart pattern?
You should short the underlying as soon as the blue support line is broken, with a tight stop loss above the support line.
Translated to money:
1. Use tight stop loss around 1-2%
2. Use a take profits as large as the pattern, 6% in the NIFTY example.
The returns are 3 to4 times the risk, so enjoy the journey while risking such a small percentage.
🛡️ The risk management strategy
As we have done in so many previous ideas, remember you can split the position in 2.
50% of the position in a take profits as large as your stop loss (adapt SL and this 1st TP to local supports/resistance levels)
50% of the position to a price as large as the previous pattern or even around 1,5 times the pattern. (target 3 in the chart).
The second TP is less likely to happen, but as soon as the first one has been reached (extremely high probability), this becomes a risk-free trade.
✴️ BUT… Where can I profit from this pattern NOW?
There are head and shoulders patterns forming in:
OANDA:EURJPY
NASDAQ:MSFT