Exploring Ilian Yotov's Quarter Point Theory: Refine Your Entry
The quarters theory challenges the notion that financial markets are chaotic and that market prices are random by demonstrating constant orderly movement of price from one Quarter point to the next. In this publication, I will delve into the fundamentals of Yotov's Quarter Point Theory, its significance, and how it can be applied effectively in forex trading.
What is Quarter Point Theory by Ilian Yotov?
Ilian Yotov's Quarter Point Theory is a technical analysis strategy used in forex trading to identify potential entry and exit points. The theory is based on the observation that currency prices tend to gravitate towards specific levels known as "quarter points," which are key psychological and technical levels in the market.
Key Concepts of Quarter Point Theory
• Quarter Points: These are price levels that divide a currency pair's price range into four equal parts. For example, if a currency pair is trading between 1.2000 and 1.3000, the quarter points would be 1.2250, 1.2500, and 1.2750.
• Psychological Levels: Quarter points often act as psychological barriers where traders tend to place buy or sell orders, causing price reactions at these levels.
• Support and Resistance: Quarter points can act as support and resistance levels, where prices may consolidate, reverse, or experience significant movement.
Identifying Quarter Points
To apply Quarter Point Theory, traders need to identify the high and low of a currency pair's price range. These values are then divided into quarters to determine the quarter points.
The quarters theory focuses on the 1000 pip range between major whole numbers in currency exchange. Each 1000 pip range can be divided into 4 equal parts called Large Quarters
Each Large quarter has exactly 250 pips (1000/4 =250).
A Large Quarter Point (LQP) is a price that marks the beginning and the end of each Large Quarter (250 pips range).
Large Quarter Points that coincide with Major whole numbers are called Major Large Quarter Points (MLQP). MLQP signals the end of a 1000 PIP range and the beginning of a new 1000 pip range.
A Major Small Quarter point is simple the number that coincides with a whole number, for example, 1.30, 1.31, 1.32, 1.33, 1.34…. Each of these numbers mark the beginning of a 100 pip range.
Here is an illustration of this:
Using Quarter Points in Forex
When you study price around this theory, you may notice that price has a tendency to print the high of the day or low of the day around quarter point levels. Here is a example of this over a 5 day period on EURUSD:
With this new-found knowledge, you could integrate this into your strategy. Once you have a directional bias for the day and you have an AOI for entry, you simply need to identify the quarter point within that range and anticipate a reaction at that level.
For a deeper dive into this theory, I highly recommend reading the original work by Ilian Yotov's. If you would like a free pdf copy, drop me a message or leave a comment, I'd be happy to share this with you.
Happy Trading
X-indicator
Best Technical Indicator to Identify Liquidity Zones
Liquidity zones are the essential element of Smart Money trading . These zones provide the safest and the most accurate trading opportunities.
The problem is, however, that it is quite complicated for the newbie traders to identify these zones properly. But there is ONE technical indicator that can help.
In this article, I will show you the best technical indicator for the identification of liquidity zones.
This technical indicator is called Volume profile.
Adding that on your chart, you should look for low volume and high volume nodes.
High volume nodes indicate the price levels on the chart where big volumes were traded and a high activity of the market participants occurred.
The indicator plots 3 significant volume spikes.
These are 3 high volume nodes.
After you identified high volume nodes, you should analyse a price action and recognize related historical structures.
By related structures, I mean historical levels that were respected by the market and from where significant price movements initiated.
When you underlined these structures, you should consider the wicks and candle closes.
Low volume nodes indicate the price levels on the chart where it has been relatively little trading activity and limited participation from market participants.
These zones indicate a lack of liquidity , which can impact the ease of price movement in those areas.
Here are 2 low volume nodes that I spotted.
After you spotted low volume nodes, you should analyse a price action and recognize related historical structures.
Here are the liquidity zones that are based on low volume nodes.
Again, these areas are based on wicks and candle closes.
These 5 area will be the important liquidity zones from where Smart Money trader can look for trading opportunities.
Learn to recognize liquidity zones properly and improve your trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Options Blueprint Series: Backspreads as a Portfolio Hedge1. Introduction
Backspreads are a versatile options strategy as they allow traders to benefit from significant moves in the underlying asset, particularly when there is an expectation of increased volatility.
2. Understanding Backspreads
A backspread is an advanced options strategy involving the sale of a small number of options and the purchase of a larger number of out-of-the-money options. This setup creates a position that benefits from large price movements in the underlying asset.
3. Generic Uses of Backspreads
Backspreads offer traders a flexible tool to capitalize on significant price movements and shifts in market volatility. Here are some common uses:
Market Sentiment Alignment:
Bullish Sentiment (Call Backspreads): Traders use call backspreads when they expect a significant upward move. This strategy involves selling a smaller number of lower-strike call options and buying a larger number of higher-strike call options.
Bearish Sentiment (Put Backspreads): Conversely, put backspreads are used when traders anticipate a significant downward move. This involves selling a smaller number of higher-strike put options and buying a larger number of lower-strike put options.
Volatility Trading:
Backspreads are particularly useful in trading volatility. They create positions with positive Vega, meaning they benefit from increases in implied volatility. This makes backspreads an excellent choice during times of market uncertainty or expected volatility spikes.
4. Hedging an Equity Portfolio using with S&P 500 Futures Put Backspreads
Put backspreads offer an effective way to hedge a long equity portfolio against sharp downward moves. By setting up a put backspread, traders can create a position that not only provides downside protection but also benefits from increased market volatility.
Setting Up a Put Backspread for Hedging:
Sell 1 OTM Put: The initial step involves selling one out-of-the-money (OTM) put option. This option will generate a premium, which can be used to offset the cost of the puts that will be purchased.
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Next, purchase two lower OTM put options. These options will provide the necessary downside protection. Depending on the strike selected, the cost of these puts will be fully or partially covered by the premium received from selling the higher-strike put.
Constructing a Positive Vega Position:
The structure of the put backspread results in a position with positive Vega. This characteristic is particularly valuable as volatility typically rises during periods of sharp declines.
Risk Profile:
Below is the risk profile of a put backspread used for hedging purposes as described in section #6 below.
5. Market Scenarios
Understanding how a put backspread behaves under different market scenarios is crucial for effective trade management and risk mitigation. Here, we explore the potential outcomes:
Market Moving Up or Staying the Same: Flat P&L
If the market moves up or remains around the current level, the put backspread will likely expire worthless.
Market Moving Down Sharply: Increased Profitability
If the market experiences a sharp decline, the put backspread would potentially become profitable.
Impact of Increased Volatility: Enhanced Gains
A rise in implied volatility benefits the put backspread as higher volatility increases the value of the bought puts more than the sold put, adding to the overall profitability of the strategy.
Maximum Risk and Trade Management:
Maximum Risk: Limited to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received (or plus the net debit paid).
Trade Management: It is essential to actively manage the position.
6. Trade Example
To illustrate the application of a put backspread as a hedge, let's consider a detailed trade example using S&P 500 Futures Options.
Trade Rationale:
Current Market Condition: The S&P 500 Futures have just created a new all-time high, indicating that the market is at a crucial juncture. From this point, the market could either continue its upward trajectory or experience a severe change of direction.
Implied Volatility (VIX): The VIX, which measures the implied volatility of options, is currently very low at 11.99. This low volatility environment makes it an ideal time to enter a backspread, as any future increase in volatility will significantly benefit the position.
Trade Setup:
Underlying Asset: S&P 500 Futures
Current Price: 5447
Strategy: Put Backspread
Expiration Date: December 2024
Specifics:
Sell 1 OTM Put: Sell 1 4600 put option
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Buy 2 4100 put options
Entry Price:
Sell 1 4600 Put: Receive $2,160 premium per contract (43.2 points)
Buy 2 4100 Puts: Pay $1,068.5 premium each; total $2,137 for two contracts (21.37 points x 2)
Net Cost:
The net cost of the backspread is the premium paid for the bought puts minus the premium received from the sold put.
Net Cost: $2,137 (paid) - $2,160 (received) = $23 net credit
As seen below, we are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Maximum Risk:
500 – 0.46 = 499.54 points (distance between strike prices minus the net credit received).
7. Importance of Risk Management
Risk management is a fundamental aspect of successful trading and investing. It involves identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential risks to protect capital and maximize returns. When implementing a put backspread as a portfolio hedge, understanding and applying robust risk management practices is crucial.
Using Stop Loss Orders and Hedging Techniques:
Stop Loss Orders: Placing stop loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position when the market reaches a certain price level. This ensures that losses do not exceed a predetermined amount, providing a safety net against adverse market movements.
Hedging Techniques: Utilizing hedging strategies, such as combining put backspreads with other options or futures contracts, can provide additional layers of protection. This approach can help manage risk more effectively by diversifying exposure and reducing the impact of unfavorable market conditions.
Importance of Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Defined Risk Strategies: Employing strategies with clearly defined risk parameters, such as put backspreads, ensures that potential losses are limited and known in advance. This contrasts with strategies that expose traders to unlimited risk, which can lead to catastrophic losses.
Position Sizing: Properly sizing positions based on risk tolerance and account size is essential. This involves calculating the maximum potential loss and ensuring it aligns with the trader's risk management plan.
Precise Entries and Exits:
Entry Points: Entering trades at optimal levels, based on technical analysis, support and resistance and UFO levels, and market conditions, enhances the probability of success. In the case of put backspreads, entering when volatility is low and market conditions are favorable increases the potential for profitability.
Exit Points: Setting clear exit points, including profit targets and stop loss levels, helps manage risk and lock in gains. Regularly reviewing and adjusting these levels based on market developments ensures that positions remain aligned with the trader's overall strategy.
Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment:
Regular Review: Continuously monitoring market conditions, position performance, and risk parameters is essential for effective risk management. This involves staying informed about economic events, market trends, and changes in volatility.
Adjustments: Making timely adjustments to positions, such as rolling options, adjusting stop loss levels, or hedging with additional instruments, helps manage risk dynamically and adapt to changing market conditions.
By incorporating these risk management practices, traders can effectively use put backspreads to hedge their portfolios and protect against significant market downturns.
8. Conclusion
In summary, put backspreads offer a powerful tool for hedging long equity portfolios, especially in low volatility environments and/or when markets are at all-time highs. By understanding the mechanics of put backspreads, their application in various market scenarios, and the importance of active risk management, traders can enhance their ability to protect their investments and capitalize on market opportunities.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Myopic loss aversion and market experience█ Myopic loss aversion and market experience
Myopic Loss Aversion (MLA) is a behavioral bias that severely affects trading behavior, particularly the tendency to avoid losses more aggressively than to pursue equivalent gains.
This bias can lead you to make suboptimal decisions, such as selling winning assets too quickly or holding onto losing assets for too long.
Today, we're exploring a study by Mayhewa et al. that explores the interaction between MLA and market experience.
Quick Results: Remarkably, experienced traders showed significantly reduced signs of MLA when operating in familiar market environments or under conditions of low-frequency information updates. This suggests that both familiarity with market dynamics and a strategic reduction in the overload of market information can help temper emotional, short-sighted decision-making.
█ Study Overview
⚪ Methodology and Participant Structure
The research, conducted by leading economists, employed an experimental market setup where participants engaged in trading sessions under controlled conditions.
The study distinguished between inexperienced and experienced traders to gauge how repeated market exposure influences MLA.
Participants were divided into two main groups based on their trading experience, with further subdivisions based on the frequency of financial information they received. One group received continuous updates (high-frequency information), while another received less frequent updates (low-frequency information), allowing the study to isolate the impact of information frequency on trading behavior.
⚪ Experimental Design
The core of the experimental design involved a series of trading tasks where participants were required to make investment decisions across several trading periods. The study introduced a key modification from previous research by incorporating a 'moving average' display—showing the average asset values alongside real-time prices. This addition was intended to reduce cognitive load and help participants make more informed decisions by providing a clearer context for the asset's performance over time.
⚪ Initial Hypotheses
The researchers hypothesized that:
Traders with more market experience would exhibit less myopic loss aversion than their less experienced counterparts.
Providing a moving average of asset values would help mitigate the MLA effect by smoothing out the emotional impact of short-term price fluctuations and emphasizing longer-term trends. Less frequent information updates might reduce MLA by limiting the 'noise' or emotional reaction to price movements, thus encouraging more rational, long-term thinking.
█ Key Findings
⚪ Impact of Information Frequency
The frequency at which traders receive market information plays a crucial role in shaping their trading decisions and susceptibility to Myopic Loss Aversion (MLA).
The study found that high-frequency information updates, which provide continuous price data, tend to exacerbate MLA. This is because constant exposure to market fluctuations heightens emotional responses, leading traders to make more short-term decisions to avoid perceived losses.
Conversely, less frequent information updates can help mitigate MLA. By reducing the noise from constant price movements, traders are encouraged to focus on longer-term trends rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
⚪ Role of Market Experience
The study revealed that experienced traders with substantial exposure to market dynamics show markedly reduced signs of MLA in familiar trading environments. These traders may be better equipped to handle the emotional pressures of trading, well not so much. The research also indicated that experienced traders might revert to MLA behaviors in different trading setups or allocation tasks with which they are less familiar.
⚪ Moving Averages and Cognitive Effects
The findings suggest that displaying moving averages is effective in reducing MLA. Traders with access to moving averages were less likely to make impulsive decisions based on short-term losses.
Instead, they were more inclined to consider the overall trend and value of the asset over time. This cognitive tool helps traders maintain a broader perspective, which is crucial for mitigating emotional biases and making more informed, strategic decisions.
█ Conclusion
Understanding and mitigating Myopic Loss Aversion (MLA) is crucial for improving trading outcomes, particularly in the volatile and fast-paced markets.
Experienced traders tend to exhibit lower levels of MLA in familiar environments, but they are not entirely immune to it.
The context-dependent nature of MLA reduction among experienced traders highlights the importance of continuous adaptation and learning.
Additionally, reducing the frequency of information updates and utilizing moving averages can help traders maintain a broader perspective, further mitigating the impact of MLA.
█ Reference
Mayhew, B. W., & Vitalis, A. (2014). Myopic loss aversion and market experience. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 97, 113-125. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2013.10.007
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
LESSON!!!As a beginner in forex trading, there are three main basic factors you should focus on learning:
1). Understanding the Forex Market:
*). Currency Pairs: Learn about major, minor, and exotic currency pairs. Understand how currencies are quoted and the significance of the base and quote currencies.
*). Market Hours: Familiarize yourself with the forex market hours and how different sessions (e.g., London, New York, Tokyo) can affect volatility and liquidity.
*). Key Players: Understand the roles of various market participants such as central banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, and retail traders.
2). Technical Analysis:
*). Charts and Patterns: Learn how to read and interpret various types of charts (line, bar, and candlestick charts) and recognize common chart patterns.
*). Indicators: Gain knowledge about technical indicators like moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, and how they can be used to make trading decisions.
*). Support and Resistance Levels: Understand how to identify and use support and resistance levels to predict potential price movements.
3). Risk Management:
*). Leverage and Margin: Learn how leverage works in forex trading and the risks associated with it. Understand margin requirements and how to manage margin effectively.
*). Position Sizing: Understand how to determine the appropriate size of your trades based on your account balance and risk tolerance.
*). Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders: Learn the importance of setting stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk and secure profits.
Mastering these basics will provide a solid foundation for more advanced forex trading strategies and techniques.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Margin? Lots? Spread? What are they?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Today we are going to cover terms such as Margin, Lot size, Spread and What are they.
Forex trading is a dynamic and potentially lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its own set of terminology and jargon that can be intimidating for beginners. Understanding these terms is crucial for aspiring traders to navigate the forex market effectively and make informed decisions.
Margin
One of the fundamental concepts in forex trading is margin, which refers to the amount of money required to open and maintain a trading position. Margin allows traders to control larger positions with a relatively small amount of capital, amplifying both potential profits and losses. It's important for traders to understand margin requirements and manage their leverage carefully to avoid excessive risk.
Lot Size
Another key concept is lots, which represent the size of a trading position in forex. Standard lots typically consist of 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots and micro lots represent 10,000 and 1,000 units, respectively. Lot size determines the potential profit or loss of a trade, with larger lots leading to greater fluctuations in account equity. If you are more comfortable with smaller lot size, you can even go on to nano lots in 100 unit of currency.
Spread
Spread is another term commonly used in forex trading, referring to the difference between the bid and ask prices of a currency pair. The bid price is the price at which traders can sell a currency pair, while the ask price is the price at which they can buy it. The spread represents the cost of executing a trade and can vary depending on market conditions and liquidity.
There are different types of spreads encountered in forex trading, including fixed spreads and variable spreads. Fixed spreads remain constant regardless of market conditions, providing traders with certainty about trading costs. On the other hand, variable spreads fluctuate in response to market volatility, widening during times of high activity and narrowing during periods of low activity.
Understanding these trading terms and jargon is essential for beginners to develop a solid foundation in forex trading. By mastering concepts such as margin, lots, spread, and different types of spreads, aspiring traders can make more informed decisions and effectively manage their risk in the dynamic and fast-paced world of forex.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
Risk Management Guide for Beginner TradersHello traders.
In this video, I delve into the fundamental principles of risk management tailored specifically for beginner traders entering the world of financial markets. I start by emphasizing the importance of understanding risk and its implications on trading outcomes. By setting clear goals and objectives, traders can align their risk management strategies with their investment aspirations.
We explore practical risk management tools such as stop loss orders, which act as a safety net to limit potential losses on trades. Calculating position sizes based on risk tolerance and stop loss levels ensures traders are not overexposed to any single trade. Continuous monitoring and review of trading performance enable adjustments to risk parameters in response to changing market conditions.
I also shared some tools that can be used to help make the process of calculating risk efficient and accurate. By mastering these risk management techniques, beginner traders can safeguard their capital and embark on their trading journey with confidence and resilience.
Trade Smart with TradingView’s Volume FootprintTradingView has just introduced an innovative feature on their charts known as the Volume Footprint . This tool represents a significant advancement in chart analysis, offering a detailed view of trading activity and volume at specific price levels. Are you interested in gaining an early advantage by becoming one of the initial traders to master this new tool ?
• I'm thrilled to share with you a fantastic new feature from TradingView : the Volume Footprint. This powerful charting tool gives us a visual representation of trading volume distribution across various price levels for each candle within a specified timeframe. It's a game-changer, offering deeper insights to help us pinpoint areas of high liquidity and significant trading activity.
• The Volume Footprint is available to those with Premium and higher-tier plans. It leverages data from multiple lower timeframes of the current symbol for historical calculations. Initially, it requests 1-second data, and once this is exhausted, it moves to the next higher timeframe. Consequently, as we delve further into history, the requested timeframe increases, which may reduce the accuracy of volume distribution.
• This tool determines whether trades are buy volumes or sell volumes by analyzing the direction of price movement. If the current bar closes higher than it opens, it's a buy volume. Conversely, if it closes lower, it's a sell volume. If the close equals the open, the volume direction follows that of the previous bar.
• One of the standout features of the Volume Footprint is its ability to identify market balance and imbalance. A balanced market indicates an equilibrium between supply and demand, resulting in stable prices. An imbalanced market, however, shows a significant disparity between supply and demand, leading to pronounced price movements.
• The Volume Footprint helps us understand market behavior, such as optimal entry points, potential price movements, and areas where supply and demand are balanced or imbalanced. It's an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment and spotting trading opportunities.
• Additionally, the Volume Footprint allows us to identify failed auctions. These occur when there's an unsuccessful attempt to set a new price, resulting in a return to previous price levels. Recognizing failed auctions can help us anticipate market reversals, validate support and resistance levels, and refine our trading strategies to capitalize on shifting market conditions.
• Another intriguing feature is Delta divergence, which refers to a discrepancy between price movement and the total delta value. Traders often use delta divergence in footprint charts to signal potential reversals or changes in market direction.
• Finally, the Volume Footprint lets us spot excess trades at extreme price levels. According to auction market theory, prices rise until demand dries up and fall until supply is exhausted. This is known as a completed auction. Sometimes, though, an incomplete auction occurs, where the volume of trades at the maximum or minimum price level differs slightly. This may indicate that the trend isn't complete, suggesting that prices might continue moving in the current direction until the auction concludes.
• In conclusion, the Volume Footprint is an invaluable tool that provides deep insights into market dynamics and trading opportunities. It's a fantastic addition to any trader’s toolkit, and I can't wait to explore and utilize this feature in my trading journey. Happy trading!
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
The Source : www.tradingview.com
Learn Risk Management.Applying risk management in forex trading is crucial for long-term success. Here are some key steps:
1. **Define Risk Tolerance:** Determine how much you're willing to risk on each trade. This is typically a percentage of your trading capital.
2. **Set Stop Losses:** Place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. These orders automatically close a trade if the price moves against you beyond a certain point.
3. **Calculate Position Size:** Determine the size of your position based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop loss. This ensures that you're not risking more than you're comfortable with on each trade.
4. **Diversify:** Avoid putting all your capital into one trade or currency pair. Diversifying your trades can help spread risk.
5. **Use Leverage Wisely:** While leverage can amplify profits, it also increases risk. Be cautious and use leverage conservatively.
6. **Stay Informed:** Keep up with market news and events that could impact currency prices. Being aware of potential risks allows you to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
7. **Regularly Review and Adjust:** Continuously monitor your trades and risk exposure. Adjust your risk management strategy as needed based on your performance and changing market conditions.
By following these steps, traders can effectively manage risk and increase their chances of success in forex trading.
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all,
This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here!
In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint.
This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth.
Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
Navigating Interest Rates with Micro Yield Futures Pair TradingIntroduction to Yield Futures
In the complex world of financial markets, Treasury Yield Futures offer investors a pathway to be exposed to changes in U.S. treasury yields. Among these instruments, the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures stand out due to their granularity and accessibility. These futures contracts reflect the market's expectations for the yields of U.S. Treasury securities with corresponding maturities.
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures allow traders to express views on the longer end of the yield curve, typically influenced by factors like economic growth expectations and inflation. Conversely, Micro 2-Year Yield Futures are more sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate, making them a ideal for short-term interest rate movements.
Why Pair Trading?
Pair trading is a market-neutral strategy that involves taking offsetting positions in two closely related securities. This approach aims to capitalize on the relative price movements between the two assets, focusing on their correlation and co-integration rather than their individual price paths. In the context of Micro Treasury Yield Futures, pair trading between the 10-Year and 2-Year contracts offers a strategic advantage by exploiting the yield curve dynamics.
By simultaneously going long on Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and short on Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (or vice versa), traders can hedge against general interest rate movements while potentially profiting from changes in the yield spread between these maturities.
Analyzing the Current Market Conditions
Understanding the current market conditions is pivotal for executing a successful pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. Currently, the interest rate environment is influenced by a complex interplay of economic recovery signals, inflation expectations, and central bank policies.
Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates directly affects the yield of U.S. Treasury securities. For instance, a hawkish outlook, suggesting rate hikes, can cause short-term yields to increase rapidly. Long-term yields might also rise but could be tempered by long-term inflation control measures.
Strategic Approach to Pair Trading These Futures
Trade Execution and Monitoring
To effectively implement a pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, traders must have a solid plan for identifying entry and exit points, managing the positions, and understanding the mechanics of yield spreads. Here’s a step-by-step approach:
1. Identifying the Trade Setup
Mean Reversion Concept: In this strategy, we utilize the concept of mean reversion, which suggests that the yield spread will revert to its historical average over time. To quantify the mean, we employ a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the spread between the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. This moving average serves as a benchmark to determine when the spread is significantly deviating from its typical range.
Signal Identification using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI): To further refine our entry and exit signals, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is employed. The CCI helps in identifying cyclical turns in the spread. This indicator is particularly useful for determining when the spread has reached a condition that is statistically overbought or oversold.
2. Trade Execution:
Going Long on One and Short on the Other: Depending on your analysis, you might go long on the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures if you anticipate the long-term rates will increase more relative to the short-term rates, or vice versa.
Position Sizing: Determine the size of each position based on the volatility of the yield spreads and your risk tolerance. It's crucial to balance the positions to ensure that the trade remains market-neutral.
Regular Review and adjustments: Regularly review the economic indicators and Fed announcements that could affect interest rates. Keep an eye on the spread for any signs that it might be moving back towards its mean or breaking out in a new trend.
Contract Specifications
To further refine our strategy, understanding the specific contract details of Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures is crucial:
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 2YY1!):
Tick Value: Each tick (0.001) of movement is worth $1 per contract.
Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. (New York time) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m.
Initial Margin: Approximately $350 per contract, subject to change based on market volatility.
Pair Margin Efficiency
When trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures as a pair, traders can leverage margin efficiencies from reduced portfolio risk. These efficiencies lower the required capital and mitigate volatility impacts.
The two charts below illustrate the volatility contrast: the Daily ATR of the yield spread is 0.033, significantly lower than the 0.082 ATR of the Micro 10-Year alone, nearly three times higher. This lower spread volatility underlines a core advantage of pair trading—reduced market exposure and potentially smoother, more predictable returns.
Risk Management in Pair Trading Micro Yield Futures
Effective risk management is the cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, especially in pair trading where the goal is to mitigate market risks through balancing positions. Here are key risk management techniques that should be considered when pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures:
1. Setting Stop-Loss Orders:
Pre-determined Levels: Establish stop-loss levels at the outset of the trade based on historical volatility, maximum acceptable loss, and the distance from your entry point. This helps in limiting potential losses if the market moves unfavorably.
Trailing Stops: Consider using trailing stop-loss orders that move with the market price. This method locks in profits while providing protection against reversal trends.
2. Position Sizing and Leverage Control:
Balanced Exposure: Ensure that the sizes of the long and short positions are balanced to maintain a market-neutral stance. This helps in minimizing the impact of broad market movements on the pair trade.
Leverage Management: Be cautious with the use of leverage. Excessive leverage can amplify losses, especially in volatile market conditions. Always align leverage with your risk tolerance and market assessment.
3. Regular Monitoring and Adjustments:
Adaptation to Market Changes: Be flexible to adjust or close the positions based on significant changes in market conditions or when the initial trading assumptions no longer hold true.
4. Utilizing Risk Management Tools:
Risk Management Software: Set alerts on TradingView to help track the performance and risk level of your pair trades effectively.
Backtesting: Regularly backtest the strategy against historical data to ensure it remains effective under various market conditions. This can also help refine the entry and exit criteria to better handle market volatility.
Effective risk management not only preserves capital but also enhances the potential for profitability by maintaining disciplined trading practices. These strategies ensure that traders can sustain their operations and capitalize on opportunities without facing disproportionate risks.
Conclusion
Pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures offers traders a sophisticated strategy to exploit inefficiencies within the yield curve while mitigating exposure to broader market movements. This approach leverages the distinct characteristics of these two futures contracts, aiming to profit from the relative movements between long-term and short-term interest rates.
Key Takeaways:
Market Neutral Strategy: Pair trading is fundamentally a market-neutral strategy that focuses on the relative performance of two assets rather than their individual price movements. This can provide insulation against market volatility and reduce directional risk.
Importance of Strategy and Discipline: Successful pair trading requires a disciplined approach to strategy implementation, from trade setup and execution to ongoing management and exit. Adhering to a predefined strategy helps maintain focus and objectivity in trading decisions.
Dynamic Market Adaptation: The financial markets are continuously evolving, influenced by economic data, policy changes, and global events. A successful pair trader must remain adaptable, continuously analyzing market conditions and adjusting strategies as needed to align with the current economic landscape.
Comprehensive Risk Management: Effective risk management is crucial in pair trading, involving careful consideration of position sizing, stop-loss settings, and regular strategy reviews. This ensures sustainability and longevity in trading by protecting against undue losses.
By maintaining a disciplined approach and adapting to market changes, traders can harness the potential of Micro Treasury Yield Futures for strategic pair trading, balancing risk and reward effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Exploring Auction Market Theory in Forex TradingAuction Market Theory (AMT) is a conceptual framework used to understand the dynamics of financial markets, viewing them as auctions where buyers and sellers interact to determine prices.
Although the AMT was initially developed to understand & analyse price action movements in the stock market, some of its core concepts can also be applied to any market, including forex.
Within the forex market, currency pairs are traded 24/5, with price driven by a multitude of factors such as economic data releases, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Despite this complexity, AMT provides a framework for understanding market dynamics through the concepts of value, balance, and imbalances .
Value represents the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of an asset. Market balance occurs when supply and demand are roughly equal, resulting in stable price ranges, while imbalances arise from deviations from this equilibrium due to shifts in market sentiment or unexpected events. These imbalances can create trading opportunities for astute traders who can identify them and act accordingly.
Lets now take a look into how this can be visually identified on a line chart using only price action.
Example 1
On the left, we can see an area of market balance. This is usually evident when the market is range bound as we can see in this case.
The midpoint of the range is the point of equilibrium. Value can be interpreted as the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of a currency pair.
This equilibrium is constantly shifting as new information becomes available and market participants reassess their expectations.
When these expectations shift as a result of either economic data releases, geopolitical events, and/or market sentiment, price shifts away from the balanced price range and creates an imbalance within the market.
Identifying value areas are important because these can act as an area of future support/resistance for price. Notice how in this example, after price displaces from the balanced range, it later came back and found support near the fair value within that range.
Practical Application
One practical application of AMT in forex trading is through the analysis of price action and market profile. By observing how price behaves at different levels and how volume interacts with price movements, you can gain insights into market sentiment and potential areas of support and resistance.
For example, if a currency pair consistently fails to break above a certain resistance level despite multiple attempts, it may indicate strong selling pressure at that level, presenting an opportunity for short trades. Conversely, if a currency pair finds strong support at a particular price level, traders may look for buying opportunities as the market reverts to equilibrium.
To conclude, Auction Market Theory offers a valuable framework for understanding the dynamics of the forex market. By analysing price action, volume, and market profile through the lens of AMT, you can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. While no theory can guarantee success in trading, incorporating Auction Market Theory into your analysis can help you make more informed trading decisions.
Please leave a comment if you've found this post helpful or if you have any questions.
Happy Trading
Momentum Trading Strategies for Day TradersMomentum Trading Strategies for Day Traders
Momentum trading is a highly-regarded trading strategy used to seize opportunities in trending markets. This article explores momentum trading and offers two comprehensive strategies for capitalising on rising and falling markets.
What Is a Momentum Trading Strategy?
Momentum trading is a technique where traders aim to capitalise on the inertia of existing market trends. The primary objective is to enter into a long position when an asset is showing an upward trend and to take a short position when the asset is trending downward. It's a strategy that thrives on volatility and requires a keen eye for market indicators.
Understanding Momentum Indicators
Momentum indicators are vital tools that help traders in gauging the strength and sustainability of an ongoing market trend. These indicators are often represented as oscillators on trading charts, fluctuating between designated upper and lower bounds.
Among the most commonly used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Stochastic Oscillator, and moving averages. These mathematical tools analyse price action and generate signals for potential entry or exit points. In momentum strategy trading, these indicators act as the 'eyes' for the trader, providing actionable insights into market dynamics.
You’ll find a whole host of momentum indicators, including the ones discussed in this article, on FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Head over there to get started in minutes.
RSI + MACD Strategy
The RSI + MACD Strategy combines two powerful momentum indicators to enhance the precision of trading entries and exits. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) typically oscillates between 0 and 100, providing insights into an asset's overbought or oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) comprises two moving averages, generating signals based on their crossover points. In day trading, this momentum strategy can be particularly effective.
Entry
A common entry point is when the RSI crosses above 30 (indicating potential reversal from an oversold condition) or crosses below 70 (suggesting the asset may be overbought) alongside the MACD signal line crossing the MACD line in the same direction, roughly at the same time.
Stop Losses
Traders often place their stop-loss orders near a recent swing point. This allows for some volatility while protecting against significant losses should the trade move unfavourably.
Take Profits
Profit-taking opportunities may arise when the RSI crosses back above 70 or below 30, signalling a potential end to the trend.
Alternatively, traders often set their take-profit levels at established support or resistance lines on the chart.
While the RSI excels in identifying overbought or oversold conditions, the MACD pinpoints trend reversals through moving average crossovers. By combining these two indicators, traders can filter out noise, reduce the likelihood of false signals, and capitalise on sustained market movements.
Stochastic + HMA Crossover Strategy
The Stochastic + HMA Crossover Strategy employs the Stochastic Oscillator in tandem with two Hull Moving Averages (HMA) of differing periods—9 and 21—to identify trading opportunities.
The Stochastic Oscillator measures an asset's closing price relative to its high-low range, with levels above 80 considered overbought and below 20 as oversold. The HMA aims to capture price trends with reduced lag, making it responsive to market changes. This trading strategy offers frequent entries and exits. As such, it’s also an ideal momentum day trading strategy.
Entries
Traders often enter a position when the Stochastic Oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20. They then look for a crossover between the 9-period and 21-period HMA in the same direction within the next two candles, confirming the entry signal.
Stop Losses
Much like the RSI + MACD strategy, stops are usually placed near a recent swing point to mitigate excessive losses.
Take Profits
Profit levels can be set when the Stochastic Oscillator moves back into the opposing range (above 80 or below 20).
Traders may consider holding the position a bit longer as the Stochastic Oscillator frequently fluctuates in these areas. A significant support/resistance level is suitable.
Here, the Stochastic Oscillator offers precise overbought and oversold levels, while the HMA's reduced lag helps traders identify and confirm trends more quickly. Together, these indicators offer a nuanced yet timely picture of market conditions.
Benefits and Drawbacks of Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is undoubtedly a popular style of trading. However, it comes with some key benefits and drawbacks:
Benefits
Quick Returns: Momentum trading may yield quick returns due to its focus on short-term trends.
Highly Liquid: Traders often deal with high-volume assets, ensuring easy entries and exits.
Data-Driven: Utilises well-defined indicators, meaning it's less subjective than some other styles of trading. In algorithmic trading, momentum strategies are popular for this reason.
Drawbacks
Volatility Risks: The focus on quick returns exposes traders to high volatility and potential losses.
False Signals: Indicators can sometimes generate false signals, leading to poor trading decisions.
Costs: High frequency of trading means higher transaction fees, which can eat into profits.
The Bottom Line
In essence, momentum trading strategies offer traders a structured approach to benefit from market trends. The strategies outlined here can serve as a solid foundation, giving traders space to refine them further based on their own experience and market observations. Moreover, they can be used as momentum stock and forex trading strategies. If you're ready to put them to the test, you can open an FXOpen account to start your trading journey across hundreds of markets. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The 0.5% After Hours Pump And DumpIt is very problematic when you look at the after-hours screen then you see
that gosh you was wrong on your prediction
--
The truth is this is not a prophecy you can be wrong on any price action
so always keep an air of doubt in your thesis
--
An announcement was made on public news that This stock might suffer because of low sales for the year the earnings report is coming out this morning
--
when this does when shall know if this gap down will happen also
take note of the pre-market hours coming out soon
--
There is a very little cure for fear but right now we
just have to hold on tight to our thesis and
--
probability and see what happens at the
pre-market hours time frame.
--
When i was looking at the after-hours data doubt sank deep inside my heart thinking
--
"Am i wrong about the probability of this stock crash?"
--
Trading is a ruff game of capitalism you need to have thick skin or else
you will be swinging around and round with the crowd doubting your price predictions
and trend analysis
-
Please read the disclaimer below
--
Disclaimer:This is not financial advice do your own research before you buy or sell anything trading is risky and you will lose money
All Roads Leads to RomeIf you wish to analyze the index using traditional Japanese candles and Heikin-Ashi candles, and compare that using Bollinger Bands, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci series, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicators. And you want to conduct the analysis on various time frames including daily, hourly, and every five minutes to discover the confluence between these indicators, you will find what pleases you in this tutorial video.
#traders4traders
***This channel is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment proposal.
Disclaimer:
The content provided is for Educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other form of advice. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks and may lead to potential losses, including the loss of principal. It's important for investors to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and market fluctuations can impact investment value. Stocks discussed here are not synonymous with, nor should they be seen as a replacement for time deposits or similar saving instruments. Investing in securities of smaller companies may involve higher risks compared to larger, more established firms, possibly resulting in substantial capital losses. Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall I be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView
Introducing another way to display volume profile sectionsHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
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The indicators activated in the settings are those created by trading volume.
Therefore, this indicator represents the volume profile section.
The indicator that the arrow points to is the indicator I mentioned earlier.
By looking at this indicator together with volume candles, you can more clearly identify the volume profile section and support and resistance sections.
In addition, you can verify the start of trading by checking the movement of the BW indicator, which consists of five indicators, namely MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators.
BW-MACD, BW-StochRSI, BW-CCI, BW-PVT, and BW-superTrend indicators are displayed separately to help you understand the indicators.
Once your trading timing has been selected, you need to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
What is important in creating a trading strategy that suits your investment style is the investment period and investment size.
Once the investment period and investment size have been decided, you must create a trading method and profit realization method using the information obtained from chart analysis.
Trading methods include buying, selling, and stop loss methods.
The purchase method should focus on how to lower the average purchase price by purchasing in installments.
At that time, when the price falls below the stop loss point and shows resistance, you need to think about how to proceed with selling.
When taking a stop loss, you must proceed according to the investment period you have set.
For example, if you decide to trade within one wave as a short-term trade and proceed with the trade, but the price falls below the stop loss point, you should be able to sell 100% and then watch the situation.
If the price rises after purchasing, you must proceed with selling according to the selling method.
The selling method must also be carried out according to the investment period.
However, the method of increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit by selling the amount equal to the purchase amount can be continued into mid- to long-term trading even if the transaction was done through day trading or short-term trading.
The reason is that the average purchase price of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits is 0.
If you add other indicators to help you conduct split transactions based on price fluctuations, the chart will look like the one above.
If the chart is unfamiliar to your eyes,
It is recommended to view only the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Establish a trading strategy that suits your investment styleHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
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(QIUSDT 1M chart)
The key is whether it can receive support and rise around 0.01550-0.01939.
If not, it is highly likely that the flow is to create a middle section in the form of a bottom.
(1W chart)
Since the HA-High indicator is formed at the 0.02464 point, it is highly likely that the price will continue its upward trend if it rises above 0.02464 and maintains the price.
However, since a psychological volume profile section has been formed up to the 0.03732 point, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin only when it rises above this point.
If it falls below 0.01550 and shows resistance, it is likely to fall near the HA-Low indicator.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator is formed at 0.00736.
However, as the price falls, there is a possibility that a new HA-Low indicator will be created, so support near the HA-Low indicator is important.
(1D chart)
The HA-Low indicator is formed at 0.01560.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise in the important area around 0.01550-0.01939.
If the price falls below the HA-Low indicator and shows resistance, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline, so a countermeasure is needed.
Since a volume profile section is formed at the 0.0122 point, you need to check whether you can receive support around this area.
The HA-High indicator is formed at 0.02715.
Since the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is formed at the 0.02464 point, the 0.02464-0.02715 section is likely to be a resistance zone.
If it receives support in the 0.02464-0.02715 range and rises, it is likely that an upward trend will begin.
However, since the 0.03549-0.03732 section may again serve as a resistance section, a countermeasure is needed.
-------------------------------------------------- ----
To trade by looking at this chart, you need to choose what is most important to you and decide on an appropriate investment period.
If the investment period does not suit your investment style, it is better not to trade.
The reason is that once you start trading, your psychological influence is likely to have a big impact on your trading.
In day trading or short-term trading, it is recommended to buy when support is confirmed in the 0.01550-0.01939 range and sell around 0.02464-0.02715, the first split selling range.
At this time, you must decide whether to sell 100% and receive a cash profit, or whether to sell the purchase principal amount and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
For medium to long term trading, I don't think it's time to trade yet.
The reason is that, as mentioned earlier, if it falls below 0.01550-0.01939, there is a high possibility of creating an intermediate section in the form of a bottom.
Therefore, it is recommended to proceed with a split purchase when support appears near the HA-Low indicator of the 1M chart or the HA-Low indicator of the 1W chart.
Therefore, it is most important to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
You need to create a trading strategy based on 1-3 above.
Numbers 1 and 2 are to determine the investment period and investment size according to your investment style, so you can make your decision by analyzing charts and checking other coin ecosystems.
Number 3 is to decide on the detailed trading method when you decide to trade, so you must select the buying, selling, and stop-loss method and decide how to realize profits accordingly.
It is useful when conducting mid- to long-term transactions to reserve the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit rather than 100% selling.
This is because the purchase price of the coin (token) corresponding to profit is 0.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------