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How to Trade Ending Diagonal: EURUSDOne of my favorite EW patterns: Ending Diagonal It usually appears in wave C or 5, we have wave C It consists of five waves and each of them are three waves All looks good as wave 5 is over wave 3 and Ending diagonal might be completed as EWO oscillator already shows Bearish Divergence between wave 3 and 5 This educational post to show trade setup on this pattern The bottom of wave b in wave 5 is a breakdown trigger (blue) as it means wave 5 is over Confirmation is on breakdown of wave 4 (orange) Target is at the start of the Ending Diagonal (green) Bonus track: One could consider sell on 61.8% Fib retracement as we see the first impulse down and now we watch this two-legged pullback.
Education
by aibek
A Trader’s Guide to ABCD PatternsIntroduction to ABCD Patterns The ABCD pattern is a tool in technical analysis that measures up and down moves within a trend. It consists of three consecutive price swings, forming a very specific shape as shown on the chart above. Note that the dark solid line on the chart above is the ABCD pattern while the dotted lines are retracement measurements. The ABCD pattern is valuable because it reflects the rhythmic and cyclical nature of market movements. While it may support such a nature, please note that past performance is not always indicative of future results. The ABCD pattern is often used as a way to map out existing and potential price movements. This pattern is composed of four key points: A, B, C, and D. From point A to B, a new prevailing trend begins. The market then retraces from point B to point C, followed by a resumption of the initial trend from C to D. This sequence can help traders draw and see the movements within a trend. One of the strengths of the ABCD pattern is its versatility. It can appear in both bullish and bearish forms, making it applicable across various markets, including forex like the FOREXCOM:EURUSD and other symbols. Additionally, it can be used in different market conditions, such as range-bound markets, uptrends, and downtrends, and across various timeframes, from intraday to long-term charts. Typically, the tool is used to measure the retracements between each move. The dotted lines on the chart indicate the size of the retracement compared to where the previous trend began. This makes it easy to see where the ABCD pattern is finding its bottom (or top) within the trend. By analyzing these retracements, traders can gauge the strength of the trend and identify potential entry and exit points. The key takeaway from the ABCD pattern is that it is a tool used to draw, measure, and see price movements within a trend. Imagine the market as a roller coaster ride with four key points: A, B, C, and D. At point A, the excitement kicks off with a fresh, dominant trend. As the ride progresses, it dips to point B, offering a brief pause. But hold on tight, because at point C, the initial trend roars back to life. Finally, traders eagerly anticipate the next twist at point D. This dynamic sequence allows traders to map out and visualize the market's journey. Did you learn something new? Our team of researchers and market specialists will be sharing more educational content, so be sure to follow our TradingView account for instant updates. Also, be sure to check out our latest ideas here . Thanks for reading! The FOREX.com team
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXcom
AUDUSD: How to Draw Quarter's Theory LevelsThe Quarter’s Theory , popularized by Ilian Yotov, is based on the idea that the market moves in predictable 25, 50, and 100-pip increments. When applied to AUD/USD, these psychological price levels become crucial for identifying potential reversals and breakouts. Current Market Outlook AUD/USD is currently trading near a key quarter level, indicating a potential reaction zone. The pair is hovering around 0.6500, a psychological price barrier that often serves as support or resistance. If buyers step in, the next upside target is 0.6750, while a break lower could send prices to 0.6250. How to Trade It Aggressive traders can look for confirmations near quarter levels and enter trades with tight stops. Conservative traders might wait for a breakout and retest before committing. Combining Quarter’s Theory with Renko charts can help filter out noise and confirm strong trends. Will AUD/USD Hold or Break? Quarter’s Theory gives traders a structured way to navigate price movements. Whether AUD/USD holds or breaks through the current quarter level will determine the next significant move. Are you watching these levels? Drop your thoughts below!
Education
by TLTurnerTV
AI crypto’s ultimate security shield or its biggest threat?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts,✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 3 minutes of your time . For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 3 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of market and Bitcoin. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Bitcoin: 📉 Bitcoin's price is nearing a crucial support level. If this level breaks, we could see at least an 8% decline, with the main downside target set at $87,000. The market’s reaction will be key to short-term price movements. 🚨 Bybit Faces a Massive $1.5 Billion Hack, Triggering a $5.5 Billion Capital Outflow 💸 Bybit, one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has recently suffered a catastrophic security breach , resulting in the theft of approximately $1.5 billion💰. The aftermath of this incident has led to a staggering $5.5 billion in total capital outflows 📉, as panicked investors rush to withdraw their funds. In response, Bybit is actively seeking emergency liquidity through loans 🏦 to fulfill withdrawal requests and has developed new software aimed at accessing frozen assets. The attack, reportedly linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, marks one of the largest heists in cryptocurrency history 🚨. During this exploit, Bybit’s cold wallet—primarily holding Ethereum—was compromised, leading to substantial losses. Data from DeFiLlama 📊 indicates that Bybit-associated wallets saw their total assets plummet from approximately $16.9 billion to $11.2 billion following the breach. The exchange is currently conducting an internal investigation🕵️ to pinpoint the exact vulnerabilities that led to this unprecedented event. 👨‍💼 Bybit CEO’s Response and Emergency Measures In a recent X (formerly Twitter) Spaces session🎙️, Bybit’s CEO, Ben Zhou, addressed the crisis, explaining that the company had immediately mobilized its team to process withdrawal requests and respond to user concerns. Zhou revealed that approximately 70% of customers' Ethereum holdings were lost in the attack, forcing Bybit to seek urgent loans to cover withdrawal demands. However, he clarified that Ethereum was not the most withdrawn asset—instead, the majority of users opted to withdraw stable coins 💵, likely seeking a safer alternative amid uncertainty. Bybit has assured affected users that they will be fully compensated ✅, reinforcing the exchange’s commitment to customer protection despite the severity of the incident. This event is now being regarded as the largest crypto theft in history ⏳, and potentially one of the most significant financial cybercrimes ever recorded. 🌍 The Broader Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market The implications of such an attack extend far beyond Bybit itself. The erosion of investor confidence in cryptocurrency exchanges and blockchain security is a primary concern. Repeated breaches of this scale could deter both retail and institutional investors 📉, prompting increased regulatory scrutiny 🏛️ and possibly slowing the adoption of digital assets. This raises an even more pressing question: What does the future hold for cybersecurity in the crypto space?🤔 🤖 The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Crypto: Savior or Threat? While blockchain technology has long been touted as highly secure, the rise of sophisticated hacking techniques—potentially augmented by AI🧠—presents new challenges. This leads to some thought-provoking questions: Could AI become a powerful tool for cybercriminals, making crypto networks more vulnerable than ever? ⚡At its peak capability, could AI potentially hack and dismantle the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem in an instant? 🛡️ Or, conversely, will AI evolve into an unparalleled security mechanism, capable of preventing such breaches altogether? These are the questions that have been keeping me, as the writer, awake at night 🌙—questions without definitive answers. However, I have gathered some insights 📚 that may help illuminate the discussion. 📈 AI’s Expanding Role in Cryptocurrency Markets 💡 Artificial Intelligence is already playing a transformative role in cryptocurrency trading and security 🔄. Advanced AI-driven algorithms 🖥️ can analyze vast amounts of market data, identify trading patterns, and generate buy/sell signals with unprecedented accuracy 📊. This technology is increasingly assisting traders in making data-driven decisions, optimizing portfolio performance, and mitigating risks ⚖️. Beyond trading, AI has limitless applications in the crypto industry 🚀. From automated fraud detection to risk management, AI-driven systems can continuously monitor blockchain transactions, identify suspicious activity, and enhance market transparency. AI can also be leveraged to optimize investment portfolios 📈 based on specific financial goals and risk tolerance. ⚔️ The Double-Edged Sword of AI in Crypto Security While AI presents enormous potential for strengthening crypto security🛡️, it also introduces new existential risks. As AI continues to evolve, it could become powerful enough to exploit vulnerabilities at an unprecedented scale🚨, potentially threatening the very foundations of blockchain security. Ultimately, only time will provide the answers⏳ to these pressing questions. 🌟 Will AI emerge as the ultimate protector of decentralized finance? 💥 Or will it become the very force that brings about its downfall? The future of cryptocurrency security remains uncertain, but one thing is clear—the integration of AI into the crypto world is inevitable, and its consequences will shape the industry for years to come. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 🚨 Bitcoin is at a critical support level—if it breaks, we could see an 8% drop, targeting GETTEX:87K 📉. Meanwhile, Bybit got hacked for $1.5B, triggering $5.5B in withdrawals, with 70% of customer ETH lost, but they promise to compensate users. Now the big question—will AI be crypto’s ultimate security shield or its biggest threat ? Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
15
Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E). This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend. Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines. In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market. The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Euro FX Futures (6E) details: Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €125,000 Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract. Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details: Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E) Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract. M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes. Execution and Trade Management Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move. If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan. Conclusion Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex🔍 Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex: A Detailed Overview Divergence is a powerful concept in technical analysis — it helps spot potential trend reversals and momentum shifts. Let’s dive into the details with clear strategies and some visual flair! 🚀 🧠 What is Divergence? Divergence happens when price action and a technical indicator (like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic) move in opposite directions. This hints that the current trend is losing strength and a possible reversal is coming. 📈 Types of Divergence 🐂 Bullish Reversal Divergence (Buy Signal) Price: Makes lower lows ⬇️ Indicator: Makes higher lows ⬆️ Meaning: Sellers are losing momentum; buyers might take over soon. Signal: Potential uptrend reversal ahead. 🔑 Key Confirmation Tools: Support zone bounce 🛑 Bullish candlestick patterns (Hammer, Engulfing) 🕯️ Increased buying volume 📊 💡 Example Setup: RSI makes a higher low while price drops lower — prepare for a long (buy) position. 🐻 Bearish Reversal Divergence (Sell Signal) Price: Makes higher highs ⬆️ Indicator: Makes lower highs ⬇️ Meaning: Buyers are losing strength; sellers could take control. Signal: Potential downtrend reversal ahead. 🔑 Key Confirmation Tools: Resistance zone rejection 🚧 Bearish candlestick patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing) 🌑 Increased selling volume 📉 💡 Example Setup: MACD makes a lower high while price pushes higher — prepare for a short (sell) position. 🛠️ Best Indicators for Divergence Trading RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Tracks overbought/oversold conditions. 📊 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Measures momentum shifts. 💥 Stochastic Oscillator – Identifies trend strength and reversals. 🎢 🎯 Divergence Trading Strategies 1️⃣ Classic Divergence Strategy Spot bullish or bearish divergence. 🔍 Confirm with support/resistance levels. 🧱 Wait for a reversal candlestick pattern (like a Doji, Engulfing, or Pin Bar). 🕯️ Enter trade with a tight stop loss below support (for buys) or above resistance (for sells). 🎯 2️⃣ Divergence + Trendline Break Strategy Draw a trendline following the current trend. 📐 Spot divergence as the trend loses strength. 🚨 Wait for a trendline breakout for extra confirmation. 💥 Enter trade on the break and retest of the trendline. 💯 3️⃣ Divergence + Moving Average Strategy Spot divergence between price and indicator. 📉 Use a moving average (MA) like the 50 EMA or 200 EMA to confirm the trend shift. 📈 Buy when price crosses above the MA after bullish divergence. 💚 Sell when price crosses below the MA after bearish divergence. ❤️ ⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid 🚫 Ignoring confirmation: Always wait for candle closes or breakouts. 🚫 Forcing divergence: Only trade when divergence is clear. 🚫 Skipping risk management: Use a stop loss and position sizing. 🚫 Overtrading small timeframes: Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) offer more reliable signals.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
27
How to Trade Gold Using COT Data📌 Step-by-Step Analysis & Prediction 1️⃣ How to Trade Gold Using COT Data Scenario 1: Gold is Rising Commercials are heavily short (84%) → They expect a potential pullback or reversal. Institutions are long (84%) → This suggests strong bullish momentum. Retail traders are long (68%) → This confirms that the public is following the uptrend. 🔹 Trading Strategy: Look for resistance zones around $2,950 - $3,000 (historical key levels). If commercials start reducing shorts, the uptrend may continue. If commercials stay net short, expect profit-taking and a potential correction. Best trade: Wait for bearish confirmation and short near resistance with a stop-loss above $3,050. Scenario 2: Gold is Falling Commercials are now long (16%) → They expect prices to recover. Institutions are reducing longs (16%) → Hedge funds are exiting long positions. Retail traders are still short (32%) → This suggests fear in the market. 🔹 Trading Strategy: Look for support zones around $2,850 - $2,875. If institutions start adding longs, this confirms a bottom formation. Best trade: Look for bullish confirmation and buy at support, targeting $2,950+. 2️⃣ How to Trade USD Using COT Data Scenario 3: USD is Rising Commercials are short (77%) → They expect USD to weaken soon. Institutions are long (73%) → They are driving the uptrend. Retail traders are also long (52%) → Retail is following the institutions. 🔹 Trading Strategy: If DXY is at resistance (105-106), expect a reversal. Best trade: Wait for USD weakness confirmation and short the USD against strong currencies like EUR or JPY. Scenario 4: USD is Falling Commercials are long (23%) → They anticipate a USD recovery. Institutions are reducing longs (27%) → Hedge funds are exiting bullish positions. Retail traders are short (48%) → This suggests retail is bearish on USD. 🔹 Trading Strategy: If DXY is near support (102-103), expect a USD bounce. Best trade: Look for bullish confirmation and buy USD against weaker currencies (e.g., short EUR/USD). 🔵 Final Trading Plan Check COT Data Every Friday → Look for shifts in institutional and commercial positions. Confirm with Technical Analysis → Identify key support/resistance levels. Use Sentiment as Confirmation → If retail is overly long/short, the reversal could be near. Set Stop-Loss & Targets → Define clear exit points to protect capital. Would you like a TradingView indicator to automate this COT-based analysis? 🚀
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by alkalbanib39
1
Mastering Candlestick Patterns: Visual Guide for Traders 🔵 Introduction Candlestick charts are among the most popular tools used by traders to analyze price movements. Each candlestick represents price action over a specific time period and provides valuable insights into market sentiment. By recognizing and understanding candlestick patterns, traders can anticipate potential price reversals or continuations, improving their trading decisions. This article explains the most common candlestick patterns with visual examples and practical Pine Script code for detection. 🔵 Anatomy of a Candlestick Before diving into patterns, it's essential to understand the components of a candlestick: Body: The area between the open and close prices. Upper Wick (Shadow): The line above the body showing the highest price. Lower Wick (Shadow): The line below the body showing the lowest price. Color: Indicates whether the price closed higher (bullish) or lower (bearish) than it opened. An illustrative image showing the anatomy of a candlestick. 🔵 Types of Candlestick Patterns 1. Reversal Patterns Hammer and Hanging Man: These single-candle patterns signal potential reversals. A Hammer appears at the bottom of a downtrend, while a Hanging Man appears at the top of an uptrend. Engulfing Patterns: - Bullish Engulfing: A small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle engulfing the previous one. - Bearish Engulfing: A small bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle engulfing it. Morning Star and Evening Star: These are three-candle reversal patterns that signal a shift in market direction. Morning Star: Occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. It consists of: - A long bearish (red) candlestick showing strong selling pressure. - A small-bodied candlestick (bullish or bearish) indicating indecision or a pause in selling. This candle often gaps down from the previous close. - A long bullish (green) candlestick that closes well into the body of the first candle, confirming the reversal. Evening Star: Appears at the top of an uptrend, signaling a potential bearish reversal. It consists of: - A long bullish (green) candlestick showing strong buying pressure. - A small-bodied candlestick (bullish or bearish) indicating indecision, often gapping up from the previous candle. - A long bearish (red) candlestick that closes well into the body of the first candle, confirming the reversal. 2. Continuation Patterns Doji Patterns: Candles with very small bodies, indicating market indecision. Variations include Long-Legged Doji, Dragonfly Doji, and Gravestone Doji. Rising and Falling Three Methods: These are five-candle continuation patterns indicating the resumption of the prevailing trend after a brief consolidation. Rising Three Methods: Occurs during an uptrend, signaling a continuation of bullish momentum. It consists of: - A long bullish (green) candlestick showing strong buying pressure. - Three (or more) small-bodied bearish (red) candlesticks that stay within the range of the first bullish candle, indicating a temporary pullback without breaking the overall uptrend. - A final long bullish (green) candlestick that closes above the high of the first candle, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Falling Three Methods: Appears during a downtrend, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. It consists of: - A long bearish (red) candlestick showing strong selling pressure. - Three (or more) small-bodied bullish (green) candlesticks contained within the range of the first bearish candle, reflecting a weak upward retracement. - A final long bearish (red) candlestick that closes below the low of the first candle, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. 🔵 Coding Candlestick Pattern Detection in Pine Script Detecting patterns programmatically can improve trading strategies. Below are Pine Script examples for detecting common patterns. Hammer Detection Code //@version=6 indicator("Hammer Pattern Detector", overlay=true) body = abs(close - open) upper_wick = high - math.max(close, open) lower_wick = math.min(close, open) - low is_hammer = lower_wick > 2 * body and upper_wick < body plotshape(is_hammer, title="Hammer", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, size=size.small) Bullish Engulfing Detection Code //@version=6 indicator("Bullish Engulfing Detector", overlay=true) bullish_engulfing = close < open and close > open and close > open and open < close plotshape(bullish_engulfing, title="Bullish Engulfing", style=shape.arrowup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.blue, size=size.small) 🔵 Practical Applications Trend Reversal Identification: Use reversal patterns to anticipate changes in market direction. Confirmation Signals: Combine candlestick patterns with indicators like RSI or Moving Averages for stronger signals. Risk Management: Employ patterns to set stop-loss and take-profit levels. 🔵 Conclusion Candlestick patterns are powerful tools that provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. By combining visual recognition with automated detection using Pine Script, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Practice spotting these patterns in real-time charts and backtest their effectiveness to build confidence in your trading strategy.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBeluga
19
Trading with multiple VAMAsI want to show you how to analyse multiple timeframe VAMAs for trading opportunities. This is an interesting approach that can reveal valuable market structure information. For this example I am using a 15m, 1h and. 4h VAMA, but you can use this on lower or higher timeframes as well. First, let's understand what each timeframe VAMA represent in this case: The 15-minute VAMA indicates short-term trends and momentum The 1-hour VAMA reveals intermediate trend direction The 4-hour VAMA represents the broader market structure When these VAMAs overlap on your lower timeframe chart (15m in this case), they create what we might call "zones of interest." Think of it like layers of support and resistance that have different degrees of significance based on their timeframe. Here's how we can interpret and use this information: Convergence Zones When multiple VAMAs cluster in a tight price range, this creates a significant zone of interest. For example, if your 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour VAMAs are all within a narrow price band, this often indicates a strong support or resistance level. These zones typically exhibit one of two behaviors: Price Bounces: When price approaches a convergence zone from above or below, it often respects these levels. The more timeframes that have converged, the stronger the zone becomes. A bounce from such a zone with corresponding volume can present a high-probability trade opportunity. Zone Breaks: If price successfully breaks through a convergence zone, especially with increased volume, this often signals a strong trend continuation or reversal, depending on the direction of the break. Hierarchical Trending You can identify the strength and maturity of trends by examining how the different timeframe VAMAs are arranged: Strong Uptrend Structure: 4H VAMA lowest 1H VAMA above 4H 15min VAMA above 1H This "stacking" of VAMAs shows a healthy trend structure. The higher timeframe VAMAs act as dynamic support levels in an uptrend (or resistance in a downtrend). Trade Entry Opportunities Alignment Trades: Look for moments when all VAMAs are pointing in the same direction and properly stacked. These situations often present high probability setups. For example: In an uptrend Price pulls back to test the 15-minute VAMA while the 1H and 4H VAMAs continue trending up.This creates a "buy the dip" opportunity with multiple timeframe confirmation. Divergent Zone Trades: When the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) show divergence from the slower ones (1H, 4H), this can indicate potential reversal points: If the 1min and 15min VAMAs start curling up while price is testing the 1H VAMA as support. This divergence in shorter timeframes while respecting longer timeframe support can signal a reversal opportunity. Breakout Confirmation: Use the multiple timeframes to confirm breakout trades: When price breaks above a convergence zone Look for the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) to cross above the slower ones Volume should increase during the break The previous resistance zone (marked by the VAMAs) should become support
Education
by jpkxyz
Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk managementAs a professional trader, I can tell you about the adverse excursion and its crucial importance in the world of trading. Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk management Adverse excursion refers to the unfavorable movement of the price of an asset after a position is opened. More precisely, it is the difference between the entry price and the worst point the price reaches before the position becomes profitable again or is closed. Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) The concept of Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE), developed by John Sweeney, is particularly useful. It measures the maximum floating loss suffered by a position before it turns in your favor or is closed. The MAE is a powerful statistical tool for analyzing drawdowns in an open position. Trading Efficiency Using MAE has several benefits for traders: Optimizing Stop-Loss: By analyzing MAE over a series of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined. Evaluating Trading Systems: MAE helps evaluate the performance of trading systems and identify areas for improvement. Refining Risk Management Strategies: By understanding the maximum adverse moves, traders can refine their strategies to better preserve their capital. Improving Trading Efficiency: MAE analysis can help improve decision-making and execute trades with greater accuracy and confidence. Practical Application To effectively use the concept of adverse excursion, it is crucial to collect data on a large number of trades. For example, if you observe a series of MAEs like this: 15, 23, 18, 16, 0, 11, 31, 17, 8, 0, 19, 26, 0, 38, 22, you can deduce valuable information about the behavior of your trades and adjust your stop-loss levels accordingly. In conclusion, the adverse excursion and especially the MAE are powerful tools for any serious trader. They allow to optimize risk management, improve the performance of strategies and make more informed decisions. As they say in the trade, "who controls his risks, controls his profits". _______ Using the Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) has several significant advantages over traditional stop-loss placement methods: Data-driven optimization The MAE allows for a more precise and data-driven approach to stop-loss placement: Statistical analysis: By examining the distribution of the MAE over a large number of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined. Performance visualization: The graphical representation of the MAE provides a clear overview of trade performance, allowing the most effective stop-loss levels to be visually identified. Balancing protection and performance The MAE helps to find an optimal balance between capital protection and trading performance: Retention of winning trades: The stop-loss can be placed to retain 75-85% of winning trades, thus avoiding prematurely cutting potentially profitable positions. Elimination of large losses: At the same time, this approach eliminates trades that suffer large losses, thus protecting capital. Adaptation to the specific strategy The MAE adapts to the unique characteristics of each trading strategy: Customization: Unlike generic methods, the MAE takes into account the specific behavior of the trades of a given strategy. Flexibility: This approach can be applied to a variety of strategies, whether short-term trading, swing trading, or long-term positions3. Improved risk management Using the MAE contributes to better overall risk management: Deep understanding: The MAE provides a more nuanced understanding of how trades evolve, allowing for better risk assessment. Reduced stress: By having a solid basis for placing stop-losses, traders can reduce the stress associated with real-time decision-making. Complementarity with other tools The MAE can be used in conjunction with other techniques: Combination with the MFE: The analysis of the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) in parallel can help to optimize not only the stop-losses, but also the profit-taking. Cross-validation: The results obtained by the MAE analysis can be compared with those of traditional parameter optimization methods for greater confidence in the strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
2 Ways to Potentially Gauge a Dip in PriceTrading markets should be simple right? Establish the direction of a price trend, take a position in the direction of that trend and enjoy the ride! Of course, in practice, we all know trading is never that easy. All traders go through similar anxieties regarding whether the current level is the correct one to trade. Perhaps one of the hardest challenges if you want to buy an asset, is when a high in price has already been established and prices are selling off. Are you now wrong with your view to buy, or should this sudden weakness be used as an opportunity to take a long position at possibly a better level? As traders, we face these decisions every day, but fortunately, technical analysis offers several tools to aid us. Today, we want to look at 2 approaches that can assist in gauging how far a correction in price may go, and if we should consider that dip in price as an opportunity to take a position or not. Previous Highs as a Support: We all know prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or the downside. Corrections are often seen as a healthy counter move to the on-going trend. However, being able to anticipate the extent of such weakness and when to make that trade, can be vital. If we look at the chart of the UK 100 Index above, we can see that between May 15th 2024, when the index traded to a high of 8477 and August 5th 2024, when the 7906 low was posted, a period of sideways price activity materialised. An upside closing break from this range materialised on January 17th 2025, at which point, traders perhaps began to anticipate a more extended phase of price strength. However, as we’ve said, prices don’t always move in straight lines, even after such a break higher. Often, a pullback in price develops, offering opportunities to enter the market at potentially a better level than if we’d blindly followed price strength after the initial break higher. A pullback in price is perfectly normal and doesn’t alter possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. However, the challenge is anticipating where support may be found again, to hold and resume the advance. Often, old price highs can be useful, as having previously marked resistance to price strength, once broken they can become support on dips, and may hold future price weakness, even turn it higher once more. Within the UK 100 index, we might consider 8418 from August 30th and 8477 from May 15th as old price highs, which might then become support, after the January 17th upside break in price. To highlight this possible support area marked by these previous price highs, where buying opportunities might have been offered in the UK 100 index during the January price setback, we’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the chart below. Following the January 17th 2025 upside break, having previously been a resistance focus, the 8418 and 8477 highs, might now became potential support to a dip in price, possibly able to hold and reverse the correction back to the upside. This 8418/8477 range, proved to be support when tested on January 27th 2025, from which price strength developed again, to post new all-time highs. Importantly, it is possible given that this 8418/8477 range proved to be support in January, it could do so again, so keep that in mind, if price weakness develops, at any point in the future. Using The 10 Day Moving Average to Act as a Support to Price Dips: In the example above, the UK 100 index correction in January lasted several days, and in certain cases, this could even last weeks. However, what if price is already within an established uptrend? It’s here that setbacks may be seen over a shorter period of time with shallower price declines. In this type of set-up, it is often the rising 10 day moving average that marks the extent of a price dip, before turning price activity higher again. As an example, let’s look at Gold during 2025 so far, focusing on each recent setback in price. During this latest advance, it has been the rising 10 day moving average that has provided support for price dips on each occasion. Subsequent strength then extended the uptrend to new all-time highs. Within such an advance, as traders, we might focus on the rising 10 day moving average to highlight possible support to short term price dips within an uptrend, and an area we might wish to use to establish long positions, anticipating continuation of the on-going uptrend. However, it is important to be aware, a break under the 10 day moving average support might reflect a change in price direction and see deeper declines. So the use of a stop loss to potentially protect any positions is important. With all this in mind, last Friday (February 14th 2025) saw Gold weakness again back to the rising 10 day moving average support. It will be interesting to see if this holds the recent weakness to extend the current uptrend to new all-time highs, or if a closing break lower develops, suggesting risks could turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by Pepperstone
4
Earnings Season: How to Trade Post-Earnings Drift Earnings season is in full swing, and while many traders focus on the immediate reaction to a company’s results, consider longer-term trends following earnings announcements that may deliver returns long after the earnings release— Post-Earnings Drift (PED) . PED is based on a simple yet effective concept: stocks that react positively to strong earnings tend to continue drifting higher, while stocks that react negatively to weak earnings tend to continue drifting lower. This drift can persist for weeks or even months, making it one of the most efficient ways to trade earnings season. Let’s break down how to identify these potential opportunities, which may have a positive risk-reward profile, and manage positions effectively. Step 1: Fundamentals – The Catalyst for the Drift Post-earnings drift is strongest when there’s a clear fundamental catalyst behind the move. Not every earnings beat leads to sustained upside, and not every earnings miss results in prolonged weakness. What matters is whether the report genuinely shifts market expectations. Key factors to look for: · Stronger-than-expected revenue and profit growth – The market rewards companies that deliver above expectations. · Forward guidance upgrades – If management raises expectations, it signals confidence in future growth. · Margin expansion and improving financial health – Investors want to see profitability improving alongside revenue growth. · Shifts in business strategy – Companies that announce major structural improvements, such as cost-cutting initiatives or new revenue streams, often see extended moves. The key is that the earnings report must provide a reason for continued buying or selling pressure. If the reaction is based on short-term noise rather than a fundamental shift, the drift is less reliable. Step 2: Market Reaction – Confirmation of the Catalyst Once you’ve identified a strong fundamental catalyst, the next step is looking at the market’s reaction. Not every stock gaps after earnings, but the reaction should provide evidence that the earnings release is driving demand. Signs of a strong bullish reaction: · Above-average volume – Institutions don’t place all their trades in one day. High volume suggests big money is stepping in. · A decisive move higher – A stock that closes strong after earnings has a better chance of continuing higher. · Follow-through buying in the days after earnings – If the stock remains bid up after the initial reaction, it suggests real demand rather than a temporary spike. Signs of a strong bearish reaction: · Heavy selling on high volume – Institutions unloading shares is a warning sign. · Failure to bounce after the initial drop – Weak stocks tend to stay weak, especially if buyers don’t step in. · Breaking key support levels – A stock that falls below major technical levels often sees continued selling. Step 3: Trade Entry & Risk Management Once you’ve identified a stock with a strong earnings catalyst and a clear market reaction, the next step is executing the trade. Entry Strategy For bullish trades: Enter on the first meaningful pullback after the initial earnings reaction. Look for a retest of intraday support or a consolidation period before the next leg higher. For bearish trades: Enter on a weak bounce that fails to recover key levels, or on a breakdown below the post-earnings low. Setting Stops Using ATR The Average True Range (ATR) is a useful tool for setting stops, as it accounts for volatility. A common method is placing a stop 1.5x to 2x ATR below your entry for long trades (above for shorts). This ensures your stop is wide enough to avoid getting shaken out by normal price swings. Managing the Trade with the 21-EMA The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21-EMA) is an excellent trailing stop for PED trades. · As long as the stock stays above the 21-EMA, the drift remains intact. · A close below the 21-EMA is a signal to exit the position. This method allows traders to ride the trend while avoiding premature exits. Real-World Example: Netflix’s Post-Earnings Drift Let’s look at how this played out with Netflix (NFLX) after its Q3 2024 earnings report. On October 17, 2024, Netflix reported: · Earnings of $5.40 per share, beating estimates of $5.12. · Revenue of $9.825 billion, slightly above expectations. · A strong subscriber growth report, with 5.1 million new additions—exceeding forecasts by over 1 million. · Ad-supported subscriptions surging past 50% of new sign-ups in available countries. · Price hikes announced for Spain and Italy, signaling confidence in pricing power. The stock reacted positively, gapping up nearly 5% on above-average volume. Over the next two months, Netflix continued drifting more than 20% higher, confirming the post-earnings drift effect. The trend remained intact until the stock eventually closed below its 21-EMA, marking the end of the move. Netflix then repeated the pattern in January 2025, beating earnings again and gapping higher on strong subscriber growth and revenue. Since then, the stock has drifted more than 10% higher and remains above its 21-EMA. Netflix (NFLX Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by Capitalcom
Best Strategies to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading. You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals. First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal. While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones. One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily. So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly. XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern. One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns. I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle. Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement. A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below. The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then. Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling. Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout. When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel. It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel. Its support will represent a strong vertical structure , from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections . Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal. Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months. A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement. Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action. One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous. In such a price action, the level of the l ast higher low is a very significant point. The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH. It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement. If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend. That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low. Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross. Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages. On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length. The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA. It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend. On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold. While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change. Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
Leap Ahead with a Dual Breakout Setup on ES and MESThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade S&P 500 Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition gives traders the opportunity to test their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants have access to select CME Group futures contracts, including E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES). This article presents a dual breakout trade setup, analyzing both bullish and bearish scenarios based on key Fibonacci levels and low volatility price ranges. The goal is to trade the breakout of a well-defined range and target either a Fibonacci extension to the upside or a retracement level to the downside. Understanding Breakouts and Fibonacci Levels A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a defined support or resistance level, often leading to a strong trend continuation. In this case, the trading range between 6146.75 and 6121.25 is the key level to watch. A breakout above this range suggests bullish momentum, while a breakout below signals bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential support or resistance zones based on past price movements. The 50% retracement level at 5985.75 aligns with a UFO support, making it a key downside target if price breaks lower. Fibonacci extension levels project potential price targets beyond the most recent high or low. The 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75 serves as the projected upside target if price breaks higher. The Dual Breakout Trade Setup In a bullish scenario, a breakout above 6146.75 confirms entry to the upside. The target for this trade is the 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75. A stop loss is placed below the breakout level at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below 6121.25 confirms entry to the downside. The target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 5985.75, which aligns with a UFO support zone. A stop loss is placed above the breakdown level, ensuring a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Risk management considerations include adjusting stop losses based on a trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Scaling out at intermediate levels can help manage volatility and secure partial profits. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) details: Full contract specs: ES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $50 x S&P 500 Index Tick size: 0.25 index points ($12.50 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility – Currently ≈$15,000 per contract. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) details: Full contract specs: MES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $5 x S&P 500 Index (1/10th of ES) Tick size: 0.25 index points ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements make it more accessible for smaller accounts – Currently ≈$1,500 per contract. Leverage in ES and MES magnifies both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider margin requirements and market conditions when determining position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing a trade, a typical breakout trader would watch price confirm a breakout by sustaining above or below the key levels. Additional confirmation from volume trends and momentum indicators can improve trade accuracy. If price does not break out, the setup remains invalid. If a false breakout occurs, traders may need to reassess conditions before re-entering. Conclusion A dual breakout setup provides both bullish and bearish opportunities depending on price movement. Fibonacci extensions provide upside targets, while retracement levels align with strong support zones for downside moves. For participants in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, confirmation, and structured risk management. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Harmonic Pattern Trading: Ultimate Guide for 2025Harmonic trading is a powerful price action-based strategy that uses Fibonacci ratios to identify high-probability reversal zones. These patterns fall under XABCD structure, meaning they have five key points (X, A, B, C, and D) and rely on Fibonacci retracements and extensions. By mastering harmonic trading, you can identify trend reversals early and achieve higher win rates compared to traditional technical analysis methods. 🔹 Key Principles of Harmonic Trading 1️⃣ Structure of Harmonic Patterns (XABCD) All harmonic patterns follow the same five-point structure: X → A: The initial move. A → B: The first retracement. B → C: A counter move. C → D: The final leg, forming the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). 2️⃣ Fibonacci Ratios in Harmonic Patterns Harmonic trading is Fibonacci-driven, meaning each pattern is defined by specific retracement and extension levels: Common Fibonacci Retracements: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, 88.6% Common Fibonacci Extensions: 127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 200%, 224%, 261.8% 3️⃣ Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) The D-point of the pattern is where price is expected to reverse. This PRZ zone is validated by Fibonacci confluence, support/resistance, and other confirmation signals (RSI, MACD, divergence, etc.). Entry: Around D-point reversal confirmation Stop Loss: Beyond the PRZ invalidation zone Take Profit: Based on Fibonacci extension levels (often 61.8%, 100%, or 161.8% retracements). 🔷 Primary Harmonic Patterns & Their Structure 1️⃣ Gartley Pattern 🦋 ✅ Most popular & reliable harmonic pattern ✅ Predicts trend continuation or reversal ✅ Respects 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from XA Gartley Pattern Structure: AB = 61.8% retracement of XA BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB CD = 78.6% retracement of XA D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected 🚀 Trading Tip: Look for confluence with trendlines, supply-demand zones, and RSI/MACD divergence. 2️⃣ Bat Pattern 🦇 ✅ High-probability reversal setup ✅ Stronger deep retracement of XA compared to Gartley ✅ Ideal for trend continuation & reversal trades Bat Pattern Structure: AB = 38.2% or 50% retracement of XA BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB CD = 88.6% retracement of XA D-point PRZ → Expect strong reversal 🚀 Trading Tip: Bat patterns often provide low-risk entries with tight stop losses due to their deep XA retracement. 3️⃣ Butterfly Pattern 🦋 ✅ Predicts deep trend reversals ✅ Used for aggressive counter-trend trades Butterfly Pattern Structure: AB = 78.6% retracement of XA BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB CD = 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA D-point PRZ → Strong trend reversal expected 🚀 Trading Tip: Butterfly PRZ zones are more extended, so look for price exhaustion & divergence before entering. 4️⃣ Crab Pattern 🦀 ✅ The most extended harmonic pattern ✅ Strong 161.8% XA extension creates powerful reversals Crab Pattern Structure: AB = 38.2% or 61.8% retracement of XA BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB CD = 161.8% extension of XA D-point PRZ → Extreme overextension, likely strong reversal 🚀 Trading Tip: Use confluence with key support/resistance levels & volume analysis to confirm reversals. 5️⃣ Deep Crab Pattern 🦀 ✅ More reliable version of the Crab Pattern ✅ D-point extends further for deeper pullbacks Deep Crab Pattern Structure: AB = 38.2% or 61.8% retracement of XA BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB CD = 224% - 261.8% extension of XA D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected 🚀 Trading Tip: Similar to the Crab, but requires stronger confirmation signals before entry. 6️⃣ Cypher Pattern 💠 ✅ High accuracy harmonic pattern ✅ Faster entries compared to other patterns Cypher Pattern Structure: AB = 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of XA BC = 127.2% to 141.4% extension of AB CD = 78.6% retracement of XA D-point PRZ → Price reversal likely 🚀 Trading Tip: Look for RSI/MACD divergence at the D-point for added confirmation. 7️⃣ Shark Pattern 🦈 ✅ Newer harmonic pattern variation ✅ Similar to Crab but uses different Fibonacci rules Shark Pattern Structure: AB = 113% - 161.8% extension of XA BC = 113% - 161.8% extension of AB CD = 88.6% retracement of XA D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected 🚀 Trading Tip: Shark patterns often appear before larger trend reversals, so they work well for early trend detection. 🔷 Advanced Harmonic Patterns Overview 📌 3-Drives Pattern Predicts the end of trends using 3 equal price movements Each drive follows Fibonacci retracements/extensions Strong reversal happens after the 3rd drive completes 📌 Alternate Bat Pattern Similar to Bat but has a deeper B-point retracement (50% of XA instead of 38.2%) More accurate for identifying trend continuation trades 📌 White Swan & Black Swan Developed by harmonic trading expert Scott Carney Similar to the Crab, but focuses on psychological market structure 🚀 How to Trade Harmonic Patterns Successfully Step 1: Identify the Pattern & PRZ Use harmonic pattern scanners or manual Fibonacci tools. Step 2: Wait for Reversal Confirmation Look for candlestick patterns (pin bars, engulfing candles). Check RSI, MACD, and volume divergence. Step 3: Place Your Trade Entry: Once price reacts at PRZ. Stop Loss: Beyond PRZ invalidation level. Take Profit: Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%). 🔥 Summary – Why Harmonic Trading Works ✅ High accuracy when Fibonacci ratios are respected ✅ Works across all timeframes (forex, stocks, crypto, indices) ✅ Combines price action, Fibonacci, and confluence factors If you master these harmonic patterns, you'll consistently spot reversals early, maximize profits, and minimize risks! 🚀📈
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
16
How to Trade With Cookie's A.I. Engulfing ScreenerIn this video, I break down how to use **Cookie's Engulfing Band Screener**, a powerful tool designed to filter out false engulfing signals and improve trading accuracy. 🚀 **How It Works:** ✔️ **Trade signals inside the band are false.** ✔️ **Valid trade signals occur when price breaks or touches the upper/lower band.** ✔️ **Sell Entry** – When price touches or breaks above the upper band. ✔️ **Buy Entry** – When price touches or breaks below the lower band. ✔️ If price re-enters the band after breaking out, another entry signal is triggered. 🎯 **Key Features:** ✅ Works on any timeframe ✅ Automatically places buy/sell labels at the right spots ✅ Alerts for trade entries so you never miss an opportunity ✅ Helps you avoid bad trades and focus on high-probability setups 🔥 **Why Use This?** I've found this to be extremely effective in improving my trading accuracy, cutting out noise, and refining my entries. If you're looking for a simple yet powerful way to trade engulfing patterns with confidence, this is for you! 📈 **Watch the full breakdown and start trading smarter today!** 🔔 **Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategies!**
Education
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie2
CPI Data & Trend Rejection – Precision Trading on USDJPY🚀 High-Impact CPI Data Moves Markets – Smart Traders Win! 🚀 This trade was executed with precision using a clear downtrend, key rejection zone, and market reaction to CPI data. Combining technical confluence with fundamental catalysts, we secured a solid 1:5 RR setup. 📉 Expert analysis confirms trend strength after inflation data! ✅ Strong break of the downward trend – Clear technical confirmation of bearish momentum. ✅ CPI impact on the markets – High volatility creates golden opportunities! 🔍 Technical indicators confirmed the entry from the rejection zone (AOI). ✅ Price reacted perfectly to the analysis, securing a solid 1:5 RR! 📢 This is the power of combining technical and fundamental analysis – trading smart, not random! 💬 Drop your analysis in the comments & follow for more top-tier setups! 🚀📉 #Forex #GoldTrading #USDJPY #CPI #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #FinancialMarkets #SmartTrading
Education
by hamidTrader21
How To Locate Pivot Points Easily Using Free IndicatorsHere are some helpful links for all of you... My indicators on Trading View, I don't use that many. Bad Ass B-Bands by WyckoffMode (follow this guy on all platforms) Chart Champions CC Pocket VuManChu Cipher B Off of Trading View I use BookMap for order flow data. This is where I can pick out exact locations of order walls i.e. pivot points. My Tutorial on how to easily find squeezes Here are links to my watchlists (some new ones are missing from Coinbase, add new ones manually) Coinbase tradingview.com/watchlists/74158386/ Gemini tradingview.com/watchlists/74158590/ Kraken tradingview.com/watchlists/96996184/
COINBASE:VARAUSDEducation
by fritbjorn
DXY: Dollar Surges Amid Inflation Pressures! Hi Traders Since the CPI came in higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3%), this signals continued inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider raising them if inflation continues to rise. The dollar could gain strength 💪 due to expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish. Markets may experience significant volatility ⚠️, especially in dollar pairs and U.S. indices.
TVC:DXYEducation
by hamidTrader21
The Main Elements of Profitable Trading Strategy (Forex, Gold) There are hundreds of different trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis. These strategies combine different tools and trading techniques. And even though, they are so different, they all have a very similar structure. In this educational article, we will discuss 4 important elements and components every GOLD, Forex trading strategy should have. What Do You Trade 1️⃣ The first component of a trading strategy is the list of the instruments that you trade. You should know in advance what assets should be in your watch list. For example, if you are a forex trader, your strategy should define the currency pairs that you are trading among the dozens that are available. How Do You Trade 2️⃣ The second element of any trading strategy is the entry reasons. Entry reasons define the exact set of market conditions that you look for to execute the trade. For example, trading key levels with confirmation, you should wait for a test of a key level first and then look for some kind of confirmation like a formation of price action pattern before you open a trade. Above, is the example how the same Gold XAUUSD chart can be perceived differently with different trading strategies. 3️⃣ The third component of a trading strategy is the position size of your trades. Your trading strategy should define in advance the rules for calculating the lot of size of your trades. For example, with my trading strategy, I risk 1% of my trading account per trade. When I am planning the trading position, I calculate a lot size accordingly. Position Management 4️⃣ The fourth element of any trading strategy is trade management rules. By trade management, I mean the exact conditions for closing the trade in a loss, taking the profit and trailing stop loss. Trade management defines your actions when the trading position becomes active. Make sure that your trading strategy includes these 4 elements. Of course, your strategy might be more sophisticated and involve more components, but these 4 elements are the core, the foundation of any strategy. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
3 Tools for Timing PullbacksPullbacks in trends can offer some of the highest quality trading opportunities, but not all pullbacks are equal. Some offer high-probability setups, while others are warning signs of deeper corrections or trend reversals. So how do you time your entry with confidence? Here are three effective tools to help you navigate pullbacks with precision. 1. Keltner Channels: Spotting Pullbacks Within Volatility Keltner Channels are a volatility-based tool that adapts to changing market conditions. They consist of a central moving average with two outer bands—typically set at a multiple of the average true range (ATR). These bands expand and contract as market volatility changes. How to Use It: When price moves into or beyond the Keltner Channel’s outer bands, it signals that momentum is outpacing short-term volatility. This surge in momentum provides an ideal setup to anticipate a pullback. For timing entries, a steady retracement back to the basis line (middle band) often presents the best opportunity to join the trend. The strongest pullbacks tend to be controlled, showing reduced momentum compared to the initial move. In contrast, a deep retracement all the way to the opposite band suggests strong counter-trend pressure, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics rather than a simple pullback. Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart In this example, we see gold pushing into the upper Keltner Channel, retracing to the basis line, finding support, and then resuming its uptrend. This pattern repeated multiple times during last year’s bull run, offering traders several high-probability entry points. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Anchored VWAP: Confirming Institutional Interest The Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a tool that’s widely used by institutional traders. It tracks the average price a market has traded at, weighted by volume, over a specific period. The key difference with Anchored VWAP is that you can "anchor" it to a significant price point (e.g., a breakout or major low), giving you a dynamic reference point for future price action. How to Use It: Anchor the VWAP to a key price level, like the low of the trend or a breakout point. A pullback to the anchored VWAP is often viewed as a high-probability area for entry. This is because institutional traders may be accumulating positions at this level, making it an important support or resistance zone. When the price pulls back to the VWAP and starts to hold above it, it suggests that demand is outweighing supply, making it a potentially good place to enter. Example: USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart Having it highs in November, USD/JPY underwent a steady pullback in December, forming a clear base of support at the VWAP anchored to the September trend lows. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring the Depth of the Pullback The Fibonacci retracement tool is one of the most popular tools for measuring the depth of a pullback. It uses horizontal lines at key Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.) to show potential support and resistance areas during a retracement. How to Use It: Identify the high and low of a trending move and apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to measure the distance of the pullback. Traders should be wary of applying too many Fib levels to their chart, so we would favour focusing on just the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Never assume that Fib levels will hold, wait for price action-based evidence form confirmation. If price action holds at one of these levels and begins to reverse, it suggests that the trend is likely to resume. The deeper the pullback, the more cautious you should be, but price patterns that align with the 61.8% level should still be considered as potential entry points. Example: S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart We can see from this example that the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement zone was a useful tool for timing pullbacks on the S&P 500. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Bringing It All Together The best time to enter a pullback is when multiple tools align. For instance: A pullback to Keltner Channel's outer band that also aligns with a Fibonacci level could signal a strong buy zone. Anchored VWAP and Fibonacci levels acting together as support can further confirm the validity of the pullback. By combining these tools, you'll have a more comprehensive understanding of where the market is likely to resume its trend, increasing your chances of a successful entry. Example: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Here we can see EUR/USD breaks lower – down into the lower Keltner channel. This is followed by a pullback that end up reversing at a confluent zone that includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the basis of the Keltner channel, and the VWAP anchored to the highs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: Timing pullbacks effectively can make a huge difference in trading success, and using the right tools helps separate high-probability setups from lower quality trades. Keltner Channels highlight volatility-driven pullbacks, Anchored VWAP identifies levels where institutions may be active, and Fibonacci retracements offer a structured approach to measuring pullback depth. When these tools align, they create confirmation zones that improve trade timing and risk management. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
11
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles (Bullish & Bearish) If you spot a large candle with high volume, whether bearish or bullish, you can use Fibonacci retracement on the candle itself to determine potential reversal or continuation zones. Here’s how to apply it in both scenarios: 1️⃣ Large Bearish Candle (Bearish Bar) 📉 (Red candle with high volume closing near the low) How to Identify a Bearish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the low (strong selling signal). ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Selling (Smart Money Selling). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the low, it could indicate hidden buying (stopping volume). How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bearish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bearish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the selling pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = Low (Bottom of the bearish bar). • 100% = High (Top of the bearish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Weak retracement, market may continue down. • 50% → Balance point, strong resistance possible. • 61.8% → Potential reversal zone; if price fails to break it, the downtrend may continue. • 78.6% → If price breaks this, trend may change. 3️⃣ If the market continues downward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Downside targets if the bearish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Selling ✅ Sell Entry: If the price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and rejects with weak volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Above 61.8% or the last swing high. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s low. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 2️⃣ Large Bullish Candle (Bullish Bar) 📈 (Green candle with high volume closing near the high) How to Identify a Bullish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the high → Strong buying signal. ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Buying (Smart Money Buying). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the high, it could indicate supply absorption. How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bullish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bullish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the buying pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = High (Top of the bullish bar). • 100% = Low (Bottom of the bullish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Shallow pullback, market may continue up. • 50% → Balance point, potential bounce area. • 61.8% → Strong support zone; if price holds with weak volume, an uptrend may continue. • 78.6% → If broken, trend may reverse. 3️⃣ If the market continues upward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Upside targets if the bullish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Buying ✅ Buy Entry: If price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and bounces with high volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Below 61.8% or the last swing low. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s high. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 🎯 Quick Summary: When to Enter? 🔴 Sell: • Large red candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with weak volume. • Stop loss above 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions. 🟢 Buy: • Large green candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with strong volume. • Stop loss below 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE