Earnings HFT gapsThe gaps that form during earnings season on or the next day after the CEO reports the revenues and income for that past quarter are always HFT driven. The concern over the past 2 previous quarters was the fact that the High Frequency Trading Firms were incorporating Artificial Intelligence into their Algos to make automated trading decisions on the millisecond scale. These small lot orders fill the ques milliseconds ahead of the market open in the US and any huge quantity of ORDERS (not lot size) causes the computers of the public exchanges and market to gap up or gap down, often a huge gap.
This can be problematic for those of you who use Pre Earnings Runs to enter a stock in anticipation of a positive to excellent earnings report for this upcoming quarter.
The HFT algos had several major flaws in the programming that did the opposite: The AI triggered sell orders rather than buy order causing the stock price to gap down hugely on good earnings news.
Be mindful that normal gaps due to a corporate event are far more reliable and consistent.
When you trade during earnings season, be aware that there is still added risk of an AI making a mistake and causing the stock to gap and run down on good news.
It is important to calculate the risk factors until it is evident by the end of this earnings season that the errors within the AI programming have been corrected and that the AI will gap appropriately to the actual facts rather than misinterpreted information.
X-indicator
Full Breakdown of My Trading Strategy Dow Futures DaytradingI will be detailing my strategy to both help others and to help myself fine tune my strategy.
My strategy is one of market maker cycles. The end goal: to trade off of the Daily chart by drilling down to the 15 minutes for entries. Everything revolves around the Daily chart. The only indicator I use is ATR, other than that, pure price action. I use opening prices a lot in my trading.
Starting with the MONTHLY chart:
Every month has the following-
An opening price
A first trading day
A last trading day
These are things that ALL traders see and can't misinterpret.
I will use June as the basis for my examples.
I try to figure out what kind of monthly candle is likely to form. Bullish, Bearish or Doji. I use ATR to try to figure out the likely size also. For Dow Futures, a typical Monthly candle is around 3000 ticks +/-
Going to the Daily chart, I mark the beginning of the month and the end of the month.
The meat of the strategy, and the one quite frankly is the most difficult and the most discretionary, is reading price action on the Daily chart to determine what the next daily candle is likely to do and where it opens at. No strategy is 100% accurate and I do take losses from being wrong. With proper risk management ( I will detail my personal risk management later ) you can still make tons of money being 50% right.
Not everyday is meant to be traded and quite frankly, most days are pure trash. Over 55% of all Daily candles are small, resting Doji days. You are looking for the expansion daily candles.
Starting with the first trading of June:
1. May 29th, Large Doji day and and formed a mother bar
2. May 30th, another doji day and still inside the previous bar
3. June 2nd, opened up in middle of inside bar, Bias for day is Long. Buy near the bottom of the inside bar and a break of Yesterday's Low.
This is an actual trade I took. Once I saw the Doji candle on the 15 minute break below yesterday's low I entered in Long. I will go over stops and targets later. For now, I am explaining how I find my bias and locations.
The next day: start the process over again. Look at the Daily and the context of the bars. Look for swing points, Daily highs and lows. Key Daily bars as signals. I usually like to do this 5 minutes after Asia opens just to see where price opens at. I then mark the daily open with a cyan blue line. If I am Long bias then I want to buy under the open at key levels. I use SP as swing point, a daily high or low that has not been broken yet.
Tuesday, I would have a Long bias again. Because we opened still inside of the mother bar and I see highs not broken, I want to trade in that direction. What is a key level on this Tuesday? I see the monthly open right underneath. The big question I would ask myself on this Tuesday is where in that move can I get in on a pullback for the Long trade?
The market gives you an entry here.
I did not take that trade, I WILL show you the trade I did take on this day. After NY opened, I saw the spike into the monthly open and a doji right ON the open. I slammed Long. Especially, the three swing points to be used as the direction.
Now on to trade management. Stops, Targets. I have the same bracket for every trade, so the only variable is my entry. Once I enter, I set my ATM strategy.
I use the 15 minute ATR to determine my stop loss. This part is also up to the individual trader and is discretionary. I will show you MY strategy.
Take a zoomed-out view of the 15-minute chart with the 14 period ATR, mark the clusters of the peak ATR readings from NY sessions. In this case it is between 70-90. I tend to go towards the upper limit, this case 90. I then use 1.25-1.5 times of this reading based on my account and position sizing. In June AND in July, I am using 120 tick stops.
My targets are all strictly 2.5 risk to reward of what my stop is plus or minus a few ticks for commissions. Since I am using 120 tick stops, my targets are therefore, 300-310 ticks. Going back to my Tuesday trade, the trade management would be a set 2.5R all or nothing. Enter the trade and walk away. Go read a book or play PS5. Go to gym. It will either hit stop, target or close out at 4pm NY close.
2 Winning trades wipes away 5 losers. I have losers all the time with a 50% win rate. I can expect 8 losing trades in a row at any given time. Something I have experienced multiple times.
Now on to my money management strategy. The holy grail of this entire system. Quite frankly, how you enter and your strategy at the end of the day doesn't amount to much. How you manage your money is where professionalism is achieved.
Take your starting account balance, divide it in fours. I will use a 10,000 account as simple math.
10,000
2500 Level 1 14.5R
2500 Level 2 11.5R
2500 Level 3 9.5R
2500 Level 4 8.5R
I risk 1.75% per trade and each level will stay fixed until the next level is reached. In this example, Level 1 will be using $175 risk per trade and a 2.5 risk to reward, $440 reward. You will keep risking $175 per trade until you hit your $2500 profit goal to advance to Level 2. In this case this will take you 14.5R
Now you are on Level 2, you find your new account balance is now $12,500. Find 1.75% of this = $220. Keep using $220 risk until you hit another $2500 in profits. This will take you 11.5R.
Keep repeating these steps until you have hit all 4 profit levels and your account has doubled. Your new account balance is now $20,000. You will start this process over again. To double your account you will need a total of 44-45R. At a conservative approach of 5-7% monthly gain, you can expect to double your account in 8 months +/- depending on how good you can get.
The number one major key to ALL OF THIS IS
One trade per Daily candle. You lose on that day, move on and come again tomorrow
All profit targets need to be hit or close out at 4pm depending on price
Trading Style, Timeframe Compatibility & Reasonable RiskTrading Style & Timeframe Compatibility
When selecting a timeframe for your trading strategy, it's essential to understand how that timeframe interacts with your chosen approach. Not every timeframe works well with every style — and the reason is rooted in time itself.
Each strategy — scalping , day trading , intra-week trading , or swing trading — is defined by how long you intend to hold a position:
-Scalping involves entering and exiting within minutes.
-Day trading means you're flat by the end of the day.
-Intra-week trading covers trades held for several days, but typically wrapped within one or two weeks.
-Swing trading extends beyond that timeframe, sometimes lasting weeks to months.
So before anything else, your timeframe should reflect your intended holding period . If that alignment is off, the edge you're trying to build may be fundamentally flawed.
Timeframes and Institutional Risk
Here’s where it gets interesting: the lower the timeframe , the closer you are to current price action — and that proximity increases your exposure to short-term liquidity grabs by institutional players.
Institutions don’t just push price around randomly. They insert large capital into the market with calculated precision, typically aiming to sweep liquidity (aka stop hunts) before executing their real positions. But there's a limit: institutions can only inject so much money at a time before it becomes inefficient or risky for them.
This is where tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone indicator come into play. It estimates how far price can move given a range of institutional capital (e.g., $500M–$1B). It calculates the potential sweep distance based on the pair you're trading, and visually maps the zone where stops are most vulnerable.
For example:
A sweep zone that stretches 20 pips might represent the range where $1B could realistically push price.
If your stop is inside that range, you're at higher risk of getting swept.
If your stop is well outside of it (often found on higher timeframes), the risk decreases substantially — because it would require too much capital to reach your level.
So, higher timeframe strategy stop-losses tend to sit outside these high-risk zones naturally , making them less likely to be manipulated by institutional moves. That’s why:
-Lower timeframe = higher risk of being swept
-Higher timeframe = lower risk, higher survivability
-More Trades ≠ More Profit
One of the biggest traps new traders fall into is believing that more trades will generate more returns. In reality, more trades just amplify risk — especially when you’re relying on low timeframes that are constantly under pressure from liquidity sweeps and volatility.
Patience is a skill. Eager traders often gravitate to the 1-minute, 5-minute or 15-minute charts, thinking they’re catching more opportunities. In truth, they’re exposing themselves to more noise, more traps, and more stop-outs.
Final Thoughts
If you’re serious about aligning your strategy with institutional mechanics, be intentional about your timeframe. Think in terms of:
-Risk exposure to sweeps
-Capital required to invalidate your position
-Holding power relative to time classification
And remember: fewer, higher-quality trades on appropriate timeframes often outperform dozens of rushed trades on lower ones.
For more concepts like this — along with access to unique tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone — check out my TradingView page: The_Forex_Steward . If this post helped clarify your thinking, give it a boost to let others benefit too.
Learn the 3 TYPES of MARKET ANALYSIS in Gold Forex Trading
In the today's post, we will discuss 3 types of analysis of a financial market.
🛠1 - Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on p rice action, key levels, technical indicators and technical tools for the assessment of a market sentiment.
Pure technician thoroughly believes that the price chart reflects all the news, all the actions of big and small players. With a proper application of technical strategies, technical analysts make predictions and identify trading opportunities.
In the example above, the trader applies price action patterns, candlestick analysis, key levels and 2 technical indicators to make a prediction that the market will drop to a key horizontal support from a solid horizontal resistance.
📰2 - Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysts assess the key factors and related data that drive the value of an asset.
These factors are diverse: it can be geopolitical events, macro and micro economic news, financial statements, etc.
Fundamental traders usually make trading decision and forecasts, relying on fundamental data alone and completely neglecting a chart analysis.
Price action on Gold on a daily time frame could be easily predicted, applying a fundamental analysis.
A bearish trend was driven by FED Interest Rates tightening program,
while a strong bullish rally initiated after escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
📊🔬 3 - Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Such traders combine the principles of both Technical and Fundamental approaches.
When they are looking for trading opportunities, they analyze the price chart and make predictions accordingly.
Then, they analyze the current related fundamentals and compare the technical and fundamental biases.
If the outlooks match , one opens a trading position.
In the example above, Gold reached a solid horizontal daily support.
Testing the underlined structure, the price formed a falling wedge pattern and a double bottom, breaking both a horizontal neckline and a resistance of the wedge.
These were 2 significant bullish technical confirmation.
At the same time, the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict left a very bullish fundamental confirmation.
It is an endless debate which method is better.
Each has its own pros and cons.
I strongly believe that one can make money mastering any of those.
Just choose the method that you prefer, study it, practice and one day you will make it.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Sector Rotation Strategy🌐 Sector Rotation Strategy: A Smart Way to Stay Ahead in the Stock Market
What Is Sector Rotation?
Imagine you're playing cricket. Some players shine in certain conditions — like a fast bowler on a bouncy pitch or a spinner on a turning track. The same idea applies to stock market sectors.
Sector Rotation is the process of shifting your money from one sector to another based on the market cycle, economic trends, or changing investor sentiment.
In simple words:
"You’re moving your money where the action is."
First, What Are Sectors?
The stock market is divided into different sectors, like:
Banking/Financials – HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, SBI
IT– Infosys, TCS, Wipro
FMCG – HUL, Nestle, Dabur
Auto – Maruti, Tata Motors
Pharma – Sun Pharma, Cipla
Capital Goods/Infra – L&T, Siemens
PSU – BEL, BHEL, HAL
Real Estate, Metals, Energy, Telecom, etc.
Each sector behaves differently at various stages of the economy.
Why Is Sector Rotation Important?
Because all sectors don’t perform well all the time.
For example:
In a bull market, sectors like Auto, Capital Goods, and Infra usually lead.
During slowdowns, investors run to safe havens like FMCG and Pharma.
When inflation or crude oil rises, energy stocks tend to do better.
When interest rates drop, banking and real estate might shine.
So, instead of holding poor-performing sectors, smart investors rotate into the hot ones.
How Does Sector Rotation Work?
Let’s say you are an investor or trader.
Step-by-step guide:
Track the economy and markets
Is GDP growing fast? = Economy expanding
Are interest rates high? = Tight liquidity
Is inflation cooling down? = Growth opportunity
Observe sectoral indices
Check Nifty IT, Nifty Bank, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Pharma, etc.
See which are outperforming or lagging.
Watch for news flow
Budget announcements, RBI policy, global cues, crude oil prices, etc.
E.g., Defence orders boost PSU stocks like BEL or HAL.
Move your capital accordingly
If Infra and Capital Goods are breaking out, reduce exposure in IT or FMCG and rotate into Infra-heavy stocks.
Real Example (India, 2024–2025)
Example: Rotation from IT to PSU & Infra
In late 2023, IT stocks underperformed due to global slowdown and US recession fears.
Meanwhile, PSU and Infra stocks rallied big time because:
Government increased capital expenditure.
Defence contracts awarded.
Railway budget saw record allocations.
So, many smart investors rotated out of IT and into:
PSU Stocks: RVNL, BEL, HAL, BHEL
Capital Goods/Infra: L&T, Siemens, ABB
Railway Stocks: IRFC, IRCTC, Titagarh Wagons
This sector rotation gave 30%–100% returns in a few months for many stocks.
Tools You Can Use
Sectoral Charts on TradingView / Chartink / NSE
Use indicators like RSI, MACD, EMA crossover.
Compare sectors using “Relative Strength” vs Nifty.
Economic Calendar
Track RBI policy, inflation data, IIP, GDP, etc.
News Portals
Moneycontrol, Bloomberg, ET Markets, CNBC.
FIIs/DII Activity
Where the big money is going – this matters!
Sector Rotation Heatmaps
Some platforms show weekly/monthly performance of sectors.
📈 Sector Rotation Strategy for Traders
For short-term traders (swing/intraday):
Rotate into sectors showing strength in volumes, price action, breakouts.
Use tools like Open Interest (OI) for sector-based option strategies.
Example:
On expiry weeks, if Bank Nifty is showing strength with rising OI and volume, rotate capital into banking-related trades (Axis, ICICI, SBI).
Sector Rotation for Long-Term Investors
For investors, sector rotation can be used:
To reduce drawdowns.
To book profits and re-enter at better levels.
To ride economic trends.
Example:
If you had exited IT in late 2022 after a rally, and entered PSU stocks in early 2023, your portfolio would’ve seen better growth.
Pros of Sector Rotation
Better returns compared to static investing
Helps avoid underperforming sectors
Takes advantage of macro trends
Works in both bull and bear markets
Cons or Risks
Requires monitoring and active management
Timing the rotation is difficult
Wrong rotation = underperformance
May incur tax if frequent buying/selling (for investors)
Pro Tips
Don't rotate too fast; let the trend confirm.
Use SIPs or staggered entry in new sectors.
Avoid “hot tips”; follow actual price and volume.
Blend sector rotation with strong stock selection (don’t just chase sector).
Conclusion
The Sector Rotation Strategy is one of the smartest, most practical tools used by both traders and investors. You don’t need to be a pro to use it — just stay alert to the market mood, economic cycles, and where the money is moving.
Think of it as dancing with the market:
“When the music changes, you change your steps.”
Keep rotating. Keep growing.
The Power of Confluence: Building Trade Setups Using 3 Indicator🔵 INTRODUCTION
Many traders fall into the trap of relying on a single indicator to make trading decisions. While one tool might work occasionally, it often leads to inconsistent results. The key to consistency lies in confluence — the strategic combination of multiple indicators that confirm each other.
In this article, you'll learn how to build high-probability trade setups by combining three essential components: trend , momentum , and volume .
🔵 WHY CONFLUENCE MATTERS
Confluence refers to multiple signals pointing in the same direction. When different indicators agree, your trade idea becomes much stronger. It helps reduce noise, avoid false signals, and increase confidence in your entries.
Think of it like crossing a busy road: you wait for the green light, check both sides, and make sure no cars are coming. The more confirmations you have, the safer your move.
🔵 WHAT IS CONFLUENCE IN TRADING?
Confluence means agreement. In trading, it’s when different methods, indicators, or tools all point toward the same outcome.
Think of it like this:
One green light? Maybe.
Two green lights? Worth watching.
Three green lights? That’s a trade worth considering.
Imagine you're planning a road trip. You check the weather forecast (trend), Google Maps traffic (momentum), and ask a local for advice (volume). If all three say “go,” you’re more confident in your decision. Trading works the same way — using multiple tools to validate a setup reduces risk and removes guesswork.
Important: Confluence is NOT about cramming 10 indicators onto your chart. It’s about using a few that each offer different types of information — and only acting when they align.
🔵 THE 3-STEP CONFLUENCE SETUP
1️⃣ Identify the Trend (Using EMAs)
Before entering any trade, you need to know the market direction. You can use:
Moving Averages (e.g., 21 EMA and 50 EMA crossover)
Structure-based analysis (e.g., higher highs = uptrend)
Trade only in the direction of the prevailing trend.
2️⃣ Check Momentum (Using RSI, MACD, or Stochastic)
Momentum tells you whether the market supports the current trend or if it's weakening.
RSI above 50 → Bullish momentum
MACD histogram rising → Acceleration
Stochastic crossing above 20 or 80 → Momentum shifts
Avoid entering when momentum is fading or diverging from price.
3️⃣ Confirm with Volume (To Validate Participation)
Volume reveals the strength behind the move. A breakout or trend continuation is more reliable when it's backed by volume.
Look for:
Volume spikes at breakout points
Increasing volume in the direction of the trend
Volume confirmation after pullbacks or retests
No volume = no conviction. Watch how the market "votes" with actual participation.
🔵 EXAMPLE TRADE SETUP
Let’s say you spot a bullish trend with 21 EMA above 50 EMA. RSI is above 50 and rising. A pullback forms, and volume picks up as price starts to push higher again.
That’s trend + momentum + volume lining up = a confluence-based opportunity.
🔵 BONUS: HOW TO ENHANCE CONFLUENCE
Add price action patterns (flags, wedges, breakouts)
Use support/resistance zones for cleaner entries
Combine with higher timeframe confirmation
Wait for retests after breakouts instead of chasing
Confluence doesn't mean complexity — it means clarity.
🔵 CONCLUSION
The best traders don’t guess. They wait for the market to align. By combining trend, momentum, and volume, you filter out weak setups and focus only on the highest-probability trades.
Start testing confluence-based setups in your strategy. You’ll likely find more consistency, fewer fakeouts, and greater confidence in your execution.
Do you trade with confluence? What’s your favorite trio of indicators? Let’s talk in the comments.
Institutional Trading Process 1. Investment Idea Generation
This is where it all begins.
Institutions generate trading ideas based on:
Fundamental research (company earnings, macroeconomic data)
Quantitative models (statistical or algorithmic strategies)
Technical analysis (price action, trends, volume)
Sentiment analysis (news flow, social media, market psychology)
Often, the research team, quant team, or portfolio managers work together to develop high-conviction trade ideas backed by data and analysis.
2. Pre-Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment
Before placing a trade, institutions perform:
Risk/reward analysis
Scenario testing (How does the trade perform in different market conditions?)
Volatility analysis
Position sizing based on portfolio risk budget
Mastering the Bollinger Bands- How to use it in trading?What is the Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands is a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s. It is designed to measure market volatility and provide signals for potential price reversals or trend continuations. The Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a simple moving average in the middle, usually calculated over 20 periods, and two outer bands that are placed a set number of standard deviations above and below the moving average. These outer bands automatically adjust to market conditions, expanding and contracting based on price volatility. The indicator is widely used by traders to understand the relative highs and lows of a financial instrument in relation to recent price action.
What will be discussed?
- How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
- What does the narrowing mean?
- What does the widening mean?
- How to trade with the Bollingers Bands?
-------------------------
How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
The upper band and the lower band serve as dynamic levels of resistance and support. When the price of an asset touches or exceeds the upper band, it may be considered overbought, suggesting that a reversal or pullback could be near. Conversely, when the price approaches or breaks below the lower band, the asset may be viewed as oversold, indicating a potential rebound. These bands do not generate definitive buy or sell signals on their own but instead help traders assess market conditions. The interaction of price with the upper and lower bands often provides visual cues about the momentum and direction of the market, allowing for more informed decision-making.
-------------------------
What does the narrowing mean?
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands occurs when the price becomes less volatile over time. This contraction indicates a period of consolidation or low market activity, where the price is trading in a tighter range. Narrowing bands are often interpreted as a signal that a significant price movement may be coming soon, as low volatility tends to precede high volatility. This phase is sometimes referred to as the "squeeze," and traders closely monitor it to anticipate breakout opportunities. The direction of the breakout, whether upward or downward, is not predicted by the narrowing itself but usually follows shortly after the bands have contracted.
-------------------------
What does the widening mean?
The widening of the Bollinger Bands reflects increasing market volatility. When the price starts to move rapidly either up or down, the bands spread further apart to accommodate this movement. This expansion typically confirms that a new trend is underway or that a breakout has occurred. The wider the bands become, the greater the degree of price fluctuation. During these times, traders may observe stronger momentum in the market, and the continuation of the move may be supported by the growing distance between the bands. However, extremely wide bands may also suggest that a reversal could be nearing, as the market can become overstretched in either direction.
-------------------------
How to trade with the Bollinger Bands?
Trading with Bollinger Bands involves using the bands to identify entry and exit points based on the behavior of price in relation to the upper and lower bands. One common approach is to buy when the price touches or breaks below the lower band and shows signs of bouncing back, and to sell when the price reaches or moves above the upper band and begins to retreat. Another strategy involves waiting for the bands to narrow significantly and then entering a trade in the direction of the breakout that follows. Traders often use Bollinger Bands in combination with other indicators such as RSI, MACD, or volume to confirm signals and reduce the risk of false breakouts. It is important to remember that Bollinger Bands are not predictive on their own but are most effective when used as part of a broader technical analysis framework.
-------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
- Drop a like and leave a comment!
A way to find Historical BottomsWhen it comes to trading stocks, one of the most powerful skills you can develop is the ability to spot historical bottoms , those rare moments when a stock finishes its downtrend and starts a new upward journey. Catching these bottoms means entering trades with low risk and high reward potential , riding the wave of a new trend from the very beginning.
The Power of Double Bottoms
One of the most reliable chart patterns for identifying market bottoms is the Double Bottom. This pattern acts like a springboard for price, signaling that sellers are losing control and buyers are stepping in, showing a clear floor
Here’s how it works:
First Bottom : The stock drops to a new low, but then buyers push it up.
Second Bottom: After a short rally, the price falls again, often to a similar level as the first bottom , but this time, it doesn’t go lower. Buyers step in once more.
Breakout : When the price rises above the high point between the two bottoms, it confirms the pattern and suggests a new uptrend is beginning.
This structure creates a clear “floor” in the market, showing where demand outweighs supply. Traders love this setup because it gives a logical place to set stop-losses, keeping risk low.
Learning from the Chart
Let’s look at the provided chart of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) to see this in action. The chart highlights two Double Bottom patterns that formed over several months.
1st Double Bottom: Notice how the price hits a low, bounces, and then returns to the same area before bouncing again. This repeated support signals a strong bottom.
2nd Double Bottom: The pattern repeats, confirming even more buyers are entering at this level.
After these patterns form, the price breaks out above the resistance level (the high between the two bottoms). This breakout is often the ideal buy zone, the moment when a new trend is likely starting, and risk is minimized because your stop can be placed just below the recent lows.
Why Double Bottoms Work
Double Bottoms are powerful because they reflect real market psychology:
Capitulation : Sellers exhaust themselves on the first dip.
Testing : The second dip tests the market’s conviction, if buyers step in again, it’s a strong sign of a bottom.
Confirmation : The breakout above resistance confirms that demand is back in control.
How to Trade Double Bottoms
Here’s a simple, actionable approach:
Identify the Pattern : Look for two distinct lows at roughly the same price level, separated by a moderate rally.
Wait for Confirmation : Only enter when the price breaks above the high between the two bottoms.
Set Your Stop : Place your stop-loss just below some important local low or some fibo levels that we always share in our newsletter.
Target the Move: Use previous resistance levels or Fibo levels.
Example from the Chart
In the GROY chart, after the second Double Bottom, the price broke out and rallied strongly, hitting both target levels marked on the chart. Traders who entered at the breakout enjoyed a substantial move with limited downside.
Take away
Spotting Double Bottoms isn’t about predicting the future—it’s about reading the market’s story. By focusing on these patterns, you can find historical bottoms with confidence, enter trades with low risk, and position yourself to ride the next big trend. The best part? You don’t need to catch every bottom, just the clear, confirmed ones. That’s how you build consistency and success in trading.
If you’re new to chart patterns, start by looking for Double Bottoms on historical charts. Practice spotting them, and you’ll soon see how they can transform your trading approach.
Using the New 2025 TradingView Screener to find Golden CrossesIn this video, I show you how to use the new TradingView 2025 screener to quickly find stocks forming a golden cross and how to add the 50 and 200 simple moving averages to your charts for clear visual confirmation. A golden cross happens when the 50 moving average crosses up through the 200 moving average. Many traders (both fundamental and technical) watch for this pattern as a sign that a stock (or even whole market) may be shifting from a downtrend to a new uptrend.
Using the TradingView Screener we can quickly find Golden crosses to help filter for potential momentum setups without having to scan hundreds of charts manually. They are not magic signals, but when combined with your own analysis, they can help you spot bigger picture trends that are gaining strength. I walk through step-by-step how to set up your screener to catch these crossovers and add them to your watchlist.
If you want to keep your trading process simple while still catching moves early, this is a practical tool worth adding to your workflow. I also show a few quick tips on how to clean up your filters to reduce the number of stocks you have to go through.
Hope you find this useful. Please like and follow if you do :)
How to Use TradingView Alerts to Catch Momentum Shifts Here’s a quick video on setting alerts in TradingView.
I use alerts for stocks I’m interested in but want to give more time to set up. Instead of using a basic price alert, I prefer setting alerts on MACD crossovers to signal when momentum is shifting back in my favor. As a rule of thumb, the deeper the crossover, the better the value and potential momentum. Crossovers below the MACD zero line are particularly useful, especially for stocks that had strong momentum and were making new highs before pulling back.
This approach helps confirm that the stock has had time to build a solid base before I enter. TradingView will then send me an email alert or play a chime if I have it open, letting me track multiple stocks and setups without constantly checking charts. It’s also great for monitoring take-profit and stop-loss levels.
You can apply the same strategy with nearly any indicator on TradingView to time your entries and exits with more confidence.
In forty years of trading, I have tried a lot of methods....In forty years of trading, I have tried a lot of methods. Over the years, things have changed. Right now, I swing trade S & P 500 Index ETFs through a commission free broker off this chart
GLOBEX FUTURES and this one single indicator. I always enter after the daily close, in the aftermarket. Trade at a price, a limit order "all or none". NOTE: You must chart FUTURES to get the signal at 6:00 PM NYC time in order to have it to position in the aftermarket. if you, chart SPX cash market, the TradingView "runtime" won't show the signal until the RTH opening "tomorrow". NO GOOD ...because overnight trading can gap the cash market. Try 5 minute chart for DAY trading Futures: use only RTH ! try configuring 3, 7, and 13, "swing" values. Happy trades! P.S. I am long right now SPX ETF.
What is the key that makes you start trading?
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
HA-Low, HA-High indicators are indicators created for trading on Heikin-Ashi charts.
Therefore, they are determined by Heikin-Ashi's Open, Close, and RSI values.
If the RSI indicator value is above 70 when the candle starts to rise and then falls on the Heikin-Ashi chart, the HA-High indicator is generated.
If the RSI indicator value is below 30 when the candle starts to rise and then falls on the Heikin-Ashi chart, the HA-Low indicator is generated.
Therefore, rather than judging the rise and fall with your eyes, you can judge the rise and fall transitions with more specific criteria.
If you look at a regular chart, you can see that there are many rise and fall transition points, unlike the Heikin-Ashi chart.
The Heikin-Ashi chart has the effect of reducing fakes.
Therefore, it has a higher reliability than judging with a regular chart.
The biggest disadvantage of the Heikin-Ashi chart is that it is difficult to know the exact values of the Open and Close values.
Therefore, the HA-Low, HA-High indicators are used to accurately and quickly identify the Open and Close values by indicating the rising and falling transition points of the Heikin-Ashi chart on a general chart.
-
The Heikin-Ashi chart uses the median.
Therefore, the HA-Low indicator corresponds to the median when it leaves the low range, and the HA-High indicator corresponds to the median when it leaves the high range.
If the HA-Low indicator is generated and then receives support, there is a high possibility that an upward trend will begin, and if the HA-High indicator is generated and then receives resistance, there is a high possibility that a downward trend will begin.
Therefore, the HA-Low, HA-High indicators are used in basic trading strategies.
However, since the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are intermediate values, if the HA-Low indicator resists and falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, and if the HA-High indicator supports and rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise rise.
Therefore, to compensate for this, the DOM (60) and DOM (-60) indicators were used.
The DOM indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates the DMI + OBV + MOMENTUM indicators.
When these indicators are above 60 or below -60, the DOM (60) and DOM (-60) indicators are created.
In other words, the DOM (60) indicator corresponds to the overbought range and indicates the end of the high point.
The DOM (-60) indicator corresponds to the oversold range and indicates the end of the low point.
Therefore, when the HA-Low indicator resists and falls, the actual stepwise decline is likely to start when it falls below DOM (-60).
On the other hand, when the HA-High indicator is supported and rises, the actual step-up trend is likely to start by rising above DOM (60).
This compensates for the shortcomings of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
-
There is no way to be 100% sure in all transactions.
Therefore, if the motivation to start a transaction is clear, it is only worth challenging the transaction.
Finding that motivation and deciding how to start a transaction that suits your investment style is the trading strategy and the core of trading.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
How Sell Side Institutions Move Price: BuybacksThere are Buy Side Institutions, aka Dark Pools, and there are Sell Side Institutions, the Money Center Banks and Giant Financial Services companies. These two groups dominate the market activity and move price in entirely different ways and for entirely different reasons.
Sell Side Institutions are short-term TRADERS. They are not allowed, nor do they wish, to hold stocks for the long term. The Sell Side trades stocks and has the most experienced, most talented, and most sophisticated floor traders in the world.
Buy Side Dark Pools have floor traders as well but they are strictly long-term investment companies managing the 401ks, pension funds, ETF long-term investments on behalf of the Middle Class of America and, in some instances, other nations.
Sell Side Institutions may buy a stock and hold for a few weeks or months but strictly for the short-term profits.
The Sell Side are also the Banks of Record who do the BUYBACKS on behalf of the Corporation which has made the decision by the Corporation's Board of Directors to do a buyback program, which tend to last many months or longer. Corporations do not have stock traders on staff. So the Bank of Record does the actual buying of the shares of stock.
The reasons for doing a Buyback:
To lower the outstanding shares which can create some momentum runs during high buying demand from retail groups and other investors.
Buybacks are intended to move price UPWARD in runs. The price range is established by the corporation. The runs are created by the Bank of Record.
Buybacks also increase dividend yields for long term investors, including pension fund investors.
NASDAQ:AAPL has a mega buyback that was approved in May but has just started now.
Buybacks can be a great strategy for trading stocks this year as many corporations will be doing buybacks due to the reduction of their taxes and more benefits to corporations.
Now is the time to start watching for buyback runs.
How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\ How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\
\ This article explores the foundation, key tools, and practical insights of Smart Money Concepts — and why it’s worth your attention.\
In today's fast-changing financial landscape, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) has become a popular strategy among modern traders. But what is SMC exactly, and how can it improve your trading decisions? This article breaks it down in a simple, professional way for traders at all levels.
---
\ What Are Smart Money Concepts?\
SMC is a trading approach based on the belief that large institutions ("smart money") like banks and hedge funds control most of the market's movements. These institutions often move the market in ways that confuse or trap retail traders. The goal of SMC is to understand and follow the footsteps of these big players.
Instead of relying on simple patterns or indicators, SMC focuses on:
\ - Market structure\
\ - Supply and demand zones\
\ - Liquidity pools\
By aligning your trades with the behavior of smart money, you can position yourself more strategically in the market.
---
\ Key SMC Concepts Explained\
\ Order Blocks\
Order blocks are zones on the chart where large institutions have placed significant buy or sell orders. These zones often lead to strong price reactions and act as hidden support or resistance levels. Order blocks are considered more precise than traditional supply and demand areas.
Example: ()
\ Fair Value Gap (FVG)\
A Fair Value Gap occurs when price moves sharply in one direction, leaving a gap or imbalance in the price action. These areas often get filled later and can act as magnets for price.
In a bearish move, the FVG is the gap between the low of the previous candle and the high of the next one. In a bullish move, it's the reverse.
Example: ()
\ Timeframe Consideration\
If you can’t monitor charts during the day, avoid relying on 5–30 minute setups. Consider 4H or daily timeframes for clearer signals and more manageable trading decisions.
\ Liquidity\
Liquidity refers to price zones where lots of pending orders exist. These are usually at obvious highs, lows, or trendlines. Smart money often targets these areas to trigger stop-losses and generate movement.
One common tool to identify liquidity is a "pivot point," which is a candle with a lower low or higher high than its neighbors.
Example: ()
\ Break of Structure (BOS)\
BOS occurs when price breaks above or below a previous high or low, signaling a possible trend continuation.
Example: ()
\ Change of Character (ChoCH)\
ChoCH happens when the market changes direction. For example, if price breaks a higher low in an uptrend, it may signal a reversal.
Example: ()
Combined with BOS: ()
---
\ How SMC Compares to Wyckoff\
The idea of "smart money" isn't new. Richard D. Wyckoff, a pioneer in technical analysis, laid the foundation for understanding market cycles driven by institutions. His price cycle theory includes four phases:
\ 1. Accumulation\
Smart money buys while the public is unaware.
\ 2. Markup\
Price rises as smart money pushes the market.
\ 3. Distribution\
Smart money sells into public buying.
\ 4. Markdown\
Price falls as the cycle completes.
SMC borrows from this logic but focuses more on structure and liquidity zones. Still, the core idea is the same: understand what big players are doing, and follow them.
\ For deeper insights into Wyckoff, explore additional resources focused on accumulation/distribution cycles.\
---
\ Summary\
Smart Money Concepts give traders a deeper look into market mechanics. By focusing on order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity, and structure breaks, SMC helps identify high-probability trade setups based on institutional behavior.
It may seem complex at first, but once you understand the basics, SMC can become a powerful tool in your trading strategy. Whether you’re new or experienced, aligning with smart money can improve your edge in the market.
Bollinger Bands: How to Stop Being a Slave to the Markets.Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis indicator widely used in trading to assess the volatility of a financial asset and anticipate price movements. Created in the 1980s by John Bollinger, they consist of three lines superimposed on the price chart:
The middle band: a simple moving average, generally calculated over 20 periods.
The upper band: the moving average to which two standard deviations are added.
The lower band: the moving average to which two standard deviations are subtracted.
These bands form a dynamic channel around the price, which widens during periods of high volatility and narrows when the market is calm. When a price touches or exceeds a band, it can signal an overbought or oversold situation, or a potential trend reversal or continuation, depending on the market context.
What are Bollinger Bands used for?
Measuring volatility: The wider the bands, the higher the volatility.
Identify dynamic support and resistance zones.
Detect market excesses: A price touching the upper or lower band may indicate a temporary excess.
Anticipate reversals or consolidations: A tightening of the bands often heralds an upcoming burst of volatility.
Why is the 2-hour time frame so widely used and relevant?
The 2-hour (H2) time frame (TU) is particularly popular with many traders for several reasons:
Perfect balance between noise and relevance: The H2 offers a compromise between very short time frames (often too noisy, generating many false signals) and long time frames (slower to react). This allows you to capture significant movements without being overwhelmed by minor fluctuations.
Suitable for swing trading and intraday trading: This TU allows you to hold a position for several hours or days, while maintaining good responsiveness to take advantage of intermediate trends.
Clearer reading of chart patterns: Technical patterns (triangles, double tops, Wolfe waves, etc.) are often clearer and more reliable on H2 than on shorter time frames, making decision-making easier.
Less stress, better time management: On H2, there's no need to constantly monitor screens. Monitoring every two hours is sufficient, which is ideal for active traders who don't want to be slaves to the market.
Statistical relevance: Numerous backtests show that technical signals (such as those from Bollinger Bands) are more robust and less prone to false signals on this intermediate time frame.
In summary, the 2-hour time frame is often considered "amazing" because it combines the precision of intraday trading with the reliability of swing trading, thus providing superior signals for most technical strategies, particularly those using Bollinger Bands.
To summarize
Bollinger Bands measure volatility and help identify overbought/oversold areas or potential reversals.
The 2-hour timeframe is highly valued because it filters out market noise while remaining sufficiently responsive, making it particularly useful for technical analysis and trading decision-making.
How to mark your charts Lightning fast!One of the things I didn't like was marking my charts. I would take so much time marking my charts and adding the prices on the side. My mentor showed me the fastest way. Just use the FIB tool and use "0" and "1". Now you can focus on other important things. I want to thank my mentor for showing me this. Good luck to everyone
Debugging Pine Script with log.info()log.info() is one of the most powerful tools in Pine Script that no one knows about. Whenever you code, you want to be able to debug, or find out why something isn’t working. The log.info() command will help you do that. Without it, creating more complex Pine Scripts becomes exponentially more difficult.
The first thing to note is that log.info() only displays strings. So, if you have a variable that is not a string, you must turn it into a string in order for log.info() to work. The way you do that is with the str.tostring() command. And remember, it's all lower case! You can throw in any numeric value (float, int, timestamp) into str.string() and it should work.
Next, in order to make your output intelligible, you may want to identify whatever value you are logging. For example, if an RSI value is 50, you don’t want a bunch of lines that just say “50”. You may want it to say “RSI = 50”.
To do that, you’ll have to use the concatenation operator. For example, if you have a variable called “rsi”, and its value is 50, then you would use the “+” concatenation symbol.
EXAMPLE 1
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
log.info(“RSI= ” + str.tostring(rsi))
Example Output =>
RSI= 50
Here, we use double quotes to create a string that contains the name of the variable, in this case “RSI = “, then we concatenate it with a stringified version of the variable, rsi.
Now that you know how to write a log, where do you view them? There isn’t a lot of documentation on it, and the link is not conveniently located.
Open up the “Pine Editor” tab at the bottom of any chart view, and you’ll see a “3 dot” button at the top right of the pane. Click that, and right above the “Help” menu item you’ll see “Pine logs”. Clicking that will open that to open a pane on the right of your browser - replacing whatever was in the right pane area before. This is where your log output will show up.
But, because you’re dealing with time series data, using the log.info() command without some type of condition will give you a fast moving stream of numbers that will be difficult to interpret. So, you may only want the output to show up once per bar, or only under specific conditions.
To have the output show up only after all computations have completed, you’ll need to use the barState.islast command. Remember, barState is camelCase, but islast is not!
EXAMPLE 2
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
if barState.islast
log.info("RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
However, this can be less than ideal, because you may want the value of the rsi variable on a particular bar, at a particular time, or under a specific chart condition. Let’s hit these one at a time.
In each of these cases, the built-in bar_index variable will come in handy. When debugging, I typically like to assign a variable “bix” to represent bar_index, and include it in the output.
So, if I want to see the rsi value when RSI crosses above 0.5, then I would have something like:
EXAMPLE 3
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,0.5)
if rsiCrossedOver
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
Example Output =>
bix=19964 - RSI=51.8449459867
bix=19972 - RSI=50.0975830828
bix=19983 - RSI=53.3529808079
bix=19985 - RSI=53.1595745146
bix=19999 - RSI=66.6466337654
bix=20001 - RSI=52.2191767466
Here, we see that the output only appears when the condition is met.
A useful thing to know is that if you want to limit the number of decimal places, then you would use the command str.tostring(rsi,”#.##”), which tells the interpreter that the format of the number should only be 2 decimal places. Or you could round the rsi variable with a command like rsi2 = math.round(rsi*100)/100 . In either case you’re output would look like:
bix=19964 - RSI=51.84
bix=19972 - RSI=50.1
bix=19983 - RSI=53.35
bix=19985 - RSI=53.16
bix=19999 - RSI=66.65
bix=20001 - RSI=52.22
This would decrease the amount of memory that’s being used to display your variable’s values, which can become a limitation for the log.info() command. It only allows 4096 characters per line, so when you get to trying to output arrays (which is another cool feature), you’ll have to keep that in mind.
Another thing to note is that log output is always preceded by a timestamp, but for the sake of brevity, I’m not including those in the output examples.
If you wanted to only output a value after the chart was fully loaded, that’s when barState.islast command comes in. Under this condition, only one line of output is created per tick update — AFTER the chart has finished loading. For example, if you only want to see what the the current bar_index and rsi values are, without filling up your log window with everything that happens before, then you could use the following code:
EXAMPLE 4
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
//@version=6
indicator("log.info()")
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
if barstate.islast
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
Example Output =>
bix=20203 - RSI=53.1103309071
This value would keep updating after every new bar tick.
The log.info() command is a huge help in creating new scripts, however, it does have its limitations. As mentioned earlier, only 4096 characters are allowed per line. So, although you can use log.info() to output arrays, you have to be aware of how many characters that array will use.
The following code DOES NOT WORK! And, the only way you can find out why will be the red exclamation point next to the name of the indicator. That, and nothing will show up on the chart, or in the logs.
// CODE DOESN’T WORK
//@version=6
indicator("MW - log.info()")
var array rsi_arr = array.new()
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,50)
if rsiCrossedOver
array.push(rsi_arr, rsi)
if barstate.islast
log.info("rsi_arr:" + str.tostring(rsi_arr))
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
// No code errors, but will not compile because too much is being written to the logs.
However, after putting some time restrictions in with the i_startTime and i_endTime user input variables, and creating a dateFilter variable to use in the conditions, I can limit the size of the final array. So, the following code does work.
EXAMPLE 5
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// CODE DOES WORK
//@version=6
indicator("MW - log.info()")
i_startTime = input.time(title="Start", defval=timestamp("01 Jan 2025 13:30 +0000"))
i_endTime = input.time(title="End", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2099 19:30 +0000"))
var array rsi_arr = array.new()
dateFilter = time >= i_startTime and time <= i_endTime
rsi = ta.rsi(close,14)
bix = bar_index
rsiCrossedOver = ta.crossover(rsi,50) and dateFilter // <== The dateFilter condition keeps the array from getting too big
if rsiCrossedOver
array.push(rsi_arr, rsi)
if barstate.islast
log.info("rsi_arr:" + str.tostring(rsi_arr))
log.info("bix=" + str.tostring(bix) + " - RSI=" + str.tostring(rsi))
plot(rsi)
Example Output =>
rsi_arr:
bix=20210 - RSI=56.9030578034
Of course, if you restrict the decimal places by using the rounding the rsi value with something like rsiRounded = math.round(rsi * 100) / 100 , then you can further reduce the size of your array. In this case the output may look something like:
Example Output =>
rsi_arr:
bix=20210 - RSI=55.6947486019
This will give your code a little breathing room.
In a nutshell, I was coding for over a year trying to debug by pushing output to labels, tables, and using libraries that cluttered up my code. Once I was able to debug with log.info() it was a game changer. I was able to start building much more advanced scripts. Hopefully, this will help you on your journey as well.
Mastering the RSI - How to use it in trading?What will be discussed?
- What is the RSI?
- RSI overbought
- RSI oversold
- RSI divergences
- How to use the RSI
- How to trade with the RSI
What is the RSI?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to measure the speed and change of price movements. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., it ranges from 0 to 100 and helps traders evaluate whether a security is overbought or oversold. The RSI typically uses a 14-period timeframe and is calculated based on the average gains and losses over that period. A rising RSI suggests increasing buying momentum, while a falling RSI indicates growing selling pressure.
RSI overbought
When the RSI rises above 70, the asset is generally considered overbought. This condition indicates that the price may have risen too quickly and could be due for a correction or pullback. However, being overbought doesn't automatically mean a reversal will occur, it signals that bullish momentum is strong, and traders should be cautious of potential trend exhaustion.
RSI oversold
Conversely, an RSI reading below 30 is typically seen as a sign that the asset is oversold. This condition suggests the price may have fallen too sharply and could be primed for a rebound. Just like with the overbought condition, an oversold RSI doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal but serves as a warning that bearish momentum may be overextended.
RSI divergences
Divergences occur when the RSI and the price of the asset move in opposite directions. A bullish divergence happens when the price makes a lower low, but the RSI forms a higher low, potentially signaling a reversal to the upside. A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high, but the RSI creates a lower high, possibly indicating a downward reversal. Divergences are often used to spot early signs of trend changes.
How to use the RSI?
To use the RSI effectively, traders typically look for overbought and oversold conditions to time entries and exits, combine it with other technical indicators for confirmation, and watch for divergences as a sign of potential reversals. RSI can also be adapted for different timeframes or strategies, depending on whether the trader is looking for short-term swings or long-term trend analysis. While it’s a powerful tool, RSI should not be used in isolation, it works best as part of a broader trading plan that considers market context and risk management.
How to trade with the RSI?
The RSI can be a powerful tool for identifying potential trade setups. When the price approaches a key support zone while the RSI remains in overbought territory, this may signal an early warning of a possible market reversal. However, rather than acting immediately, it's wise to wait for confirmation. A clear candlestick reversal pattern, such as a bullish engulfing candle or a pin bar, a provide stronger evidence that momentum is shifting. By combining RSI readings with price action and support levels, traders can improve the accuracy and timing of their entries.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
- Drop a like and leave a comment!
A Step-by-step Guide to One of the Chart Analysis Method: VOLTASHello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Today we're going to learn step-by-step guide to one of the chart analysis Method by analyzing a chart of " VOLTAS LTD. " to identify a trend change opportunity.(Educational Post).
Let's get started!
Applying Elliott Wave Theory
According to Elliott Wave theory, we can see that the high of September 20, 2024, marked the end of the wave III of the cycle degree in Red. After that, a corrective wave unfolded, which reached its low on February 1, 2025. This was the wave IV of the cycle degree in Red, with a low of 1135.
The approximately 6 months correction ended here, and now the wave V of the cycle degree in Red has begun. Within this, there will be five sub-divisions of primary degree in black, which we can label as waves ((1)) to ((5)). Of these, waves ((1)) and ((2)) are complete, and we are possibly now in wave ((3)) of the Primary degree in Black.
Within wave ((3)), there will be five sub-divisions of intermediate degree in blue, of which waves (1) and (2) are complete, and the (3)rd intermediate degree in Blue is underway. Within this, there will be five sub-divisions waves of minor degree in red, of which 1 and 2 are complete, and today we saw the breakout of the 3 of the (3).
Possibly, this is a momentum move according to Elliott Wave theory, which we can call the third of the third of the third.
Now that we have this low of wave IV at ₹1135, it should not go below this level according to Elliott Wave theory. If it does, our current wave count will be invalidated. That's why we have an invalidation level within Elliott Wave, which according to this chart is at ₹1135. This low should not be breached. If it is breached for any reason, we'll have to re-analyze our entire count, and the counts could be different.
However, if this low holds, then the minimum target for wave V, based on the projection of wave theory, would be at least 100% to 123% of the fall from top III to bottom IV, which could take it to around ₹2000 to ₹2100. Shown in chart image below
Possible Elliott Wave Counts on Daily Time Frame Along with Invalidation level & Target levels.
Dow Theory Suggests now Up Trend
After forming the top of wave III, we can see that the price has moved downwards in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. However, after completing the bottom of wave IV, the price has started forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that an uptrend has begun.
This is a clear signal that supports our wave counts moving upwards, i.e., towards an impulse move, based on Dow theory. The successful completion of wave IV and the initiation of the higher highs and higher lows pattern suggest a strong bullish trend, and we can expect the price to continue moving upwards. Shown in chart image below
Breakout with good intensity of Volumes
In this chart, we've observed a rounding bottom type chart pattern, and today, we've seen a breakout above the upper resistance trend line. Today's candle volume is also significantly higher than the average. Shown in chart images below
Chart Pattern: Rounding Bottom
Resistance Trendline Breakout with Good Intensity of Volumes
Supporting Indicators & Moving Averages
Also we can see that the current price has closed above the 50-day EMA and 100-day EMA. Additionally, indicators like RSI is above 60 and showing momentum, MACD is positive and above the zero line, and the histogram is also showing a breakout. Shown in chart images below
Breakout above 50DEMA & 100DEMA
RSI Breakout above 60+ on Daily Time Frame
Bullish side Breakout in Histogram on Daily Time Frame
MACD running Positive & above zero line on Daily Time Frame
Bollinger Band on Weekly
If we look at the weekly time frame, the current week's candle is above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that the price is above the 20-period simple moving average on the weekly time frame. which is very good sign. Shown in chart image below
Price Trading above 20 SMA on Weekly Time Frame (Mid.Bollinger Band)
Significant Observation in Price Action & Volumes
Before the breakout, the rounding bottom chart pattern that was forming at the bottom can be interpreted as accumulation, as a red bearish candle with high volume appeared, marking the highest volume. Notably, no candle has closed below the low of that candle since then.
Although a gap-down candle occurred, it opened and closed bullish, indicating no selling pressure below that level. The absence of bearish follow-up and the subsequent breakout today are significant observations, combining price action and volume. This is a positive sign suggesting the price may move upwards. Shown in chart image below
This is how chart analysis is done for investment purposes. We've seen many signs in our favor, and yet we still use a stop loss to prevent significant losses in case the stock or market moves unexpectedly. This is what stop loss is all about - minimizing potential losses.
We've also discussed the target projection based on Wave theory, 123.6% level, which we explained through an image. So, friends, I hope you've understood the entire conclusion and learned how to analyze charts using different methods, one of which we shared with you today.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Chaarts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Do You Have a Trading Edge?A Practical Guide to Figuring Out if What You’re Doing Is Actually Working
There comes a point in every trader’s journey when you stop asking “what indicator should I use” and start asking something much more important.
Is what I’m doing actually working?
It’s an honest question. When the P&L has been chopping sideways or dipping red for weeks, it’s easy to feel stuck. Maybe you’ve been grinding for months, jumping from one setup to another, but still not seeing consistent progress. Before you give up or double down, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the one thing that matters most.
Do you have an edge?
What Is a Trading Edge, Really?
A trading edge isn’t about being right all the time. It isn’t some secret indicator or a feeling in your gut. It’s a cold, hard number.
Your edge is the amount of money you can expect to make or lose on average every time you place a trade. If the number is positive, you’re on the right side of probability. If it’s negative, then no amount of motivation or mindset work will stop the account from bleeding over time.
Thankfully, there’s a simple formula that tells you exactly where you stand.
The Formula: No Hype, Just Maths
Edge per trade = (Average Win × Win Rate) − (Average Loss × Loss Rate)
Or more simply:
Edge = W × R – L × (1−R)
Where:
• W is your average winning trade in pounds
• L is your average losing trade (as a positive number)
• R is your win rate, written as a decimal (so 55% becomes 0.55)
This is your trading edge. It’s not a concept. It’s a number. And it either works or it doesn’t.
Let’s Put It Into Practice
Say you win 45% of the time. Your average winning trade makes £180. Your average losing trade costs £120. Plug the numbers in.
Edge = £180 × 0.45 minus £120 × 0.55
Edge = £81 minus £66
Edge = £15
That £15 is your expected value per trade. So if you take 100 trades following that same pattern, you’d expect to make £1,500 before costs. That’s the kind of maths you want working in your favour. It’s not glamorous. It’s not loud. But it’s sustainable.
What if the Edge Is Negative?
This is where a lot of traders lose heart. But it’s actually good news. If the formula tells you the edge isn’t there, you can stop guessing. It means you’ve identified the problem.
A negative edge just tells you that, on balance, either:
• you’re winning too infrequently
• your losses are too large
• your winners aren’t big enough
And every one of those can be adjusted. This isn’t about tearing down your whole system. Often, a small shift in one variable is all it takes to turn a negative edge into a positive one.
Three Ways to Nudge the Numbers in Your Favour
1. Improve the win rate slightly
Look for trades with more confluence. Stick to clearer trends. Avoid taking marginal setups during unpredictable conditions. You don’t need a huge jump, even going from 40% to 47% can have a big impact.
2. Increase the size of your winners
Let trades run a little longer when the conditions are right. Take partials if it helps your mindset, but keep a portion on to capture the extended move. Most traders cut profits too early and let losers drift too far.
3. Tighten up the losses
Use hard stops. Respect them. Review your biggest losing trades and ask yourself if they really had to be that big. Often they didn’t. The goal is to keep losses small and repeatable, not devastating and unpredictable.
A Note on Sample Size
Five or ten trades won’t give you a reliable read on your edge. You need a bigger pool. Ideally 50 to 100 trades minimum. Patterns emerge over time, not in the heat of one session.
A strong edge can go through losing streaks. A poor strategy can get lucky for a while. But when you track your numbers over enough trades, the truth becomes very clear.
You’re Probably Closer Than You Think
If you’ve never done this calculation before, don’t feel behind. Most retail traders never actually work out their edge. They focus on indicators, entry techniques, or mindset work without ever stopping to ask if the numbers stack up.
But once you do the maths, things start to change. You stop judging yourself by your last trade and start thinking in averages. You stop chasing every setup and start focusing on quality. You stop worrying about being right, and start focusing on being consistent.
That’s what separates hobbyists from professionals. The numbers are the difference.
Summary:
If your edge is negative, you now know where to look. If it’s positive, even just slightly, you’ve got something worth building on. Either way, the path forward is clearer.
Trading is hard, no question. But it’s not magic. It’s probability, risk control and discipline applied consistently. And it all starts with understanding the maths behind what you’re doing.
So next time you’re questioning whether your system is any good, don’t ask how it feels. Run the numbers.
Do you have a trading edge?
If yes, protect it. If not, now you know what to fix.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
USDJPY FXAN & Heikin Ashi exampleIn this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of USDJPY, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
Like, share and comment! ❤️
Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
Velocity Market Conditions Explained.There are 6 primary upside Market Conditions. Currently the stock market is in a Velocity Market Condition where price and runs are controlled by retail investors, retail swing traders, retail day traders and the huge group of Small Funds Managers using VWAP ORDERS to buy shares of stock with an automated systematic buy order trigger when the volume in that stock starts to rise. The more volume in a stock the faster the VWAP order will trigger.
You task is to study Dark Pool hidden and quiet accumulation bottoming formations to be ready for the Velocity Market Condition that always follows.
Price is a primary indicator.
Volume is a primary Indicator.
These are the most important indicators in your trading charting software tools.
The next most important indicator is Large lot versus Small lot indicators which are NOT based on volume but more complex formulations.
HFTs use algorithms, AI, social media discussions etc.
To ride the Velocity wave upward, you must enter the stock before the run upward.
Learning to read charts as easily takes practice and experience.
The benefit is the ability to forecast with a very high degree of accuracy what that stock will due in terms of rising profits, over the next few days or longer.
Candlesticks have many new candle patterns that have just developed in the past couple of years. The stock market is evolving at a fast pace and the internal market structure that you can't see is only visible in the candlesticks, large lot vs small lot indicators, and other semi professional to professional level tools for analyzing stocks.
The stock market is changing and becoming far more tiered with more off exchange transactions. Learn to read charts so that you can trade with higher confidence and higher revenues.