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2 hours ago
AUDUSD, 120 Long
1 46
My bias is for Aussie to find support on the new monthly pivot. This is the first time in months Aussie will be opening above monthly pivot - last attempt saw gap below on open - it will have a roof of the weekly pivot, but the weekly pivot is higher again this week from last week. There is lots of traffic for price to move up trends and pivot points - plus price came very close to R3 on the weekly this week - the response usually is a gravitation back to pivot point or equal response to S3. Given all that if price finds support on the monthly pivot and closes above the weekly pivot then I would anticipate price to attempt new monthly trend. I will follow with the 8hr pivots.
3 hours ago
BTCUSD, W Neutral
44 298

Unless Bitcoin manages a lasting break above 300, the apex of the descending cone points to 40 by year end.

The band is becoming very narrow. to achieve this would mean a lowering in realised volatility which would mean an acceptation of the new price paradigm (a slow death in other words).

I like watching bitcoin only because for me it is a great case study of human behaviour (more than other indices that have macro forces affecting the price too).

4 hours ago
GILD, W Neutral
2 41
betting either way is foolhardy
4 hours ago
EURUSD, 30 Neutral
10 171
TEST YOUR TRADING SYSTEM
I will not go deep into this, because it quickly becomes a shouting match on who has the best system, which is usually more about ego than fact. It is sufficient to say that I have seen / know of profitable traders who use fundamentals, price patterns, Elliot waves, renko, moving averages, structure levels, pitchforks, trend rules and custom indicators. I will not get into which system is the best, because I have not back tested them all personally. This does not imply that it does not matter what system you use. Far from it. You need a system that gives you an edge. And the only way to know if it does, is to back test it against a relevant amount of data.

ADD FILTERS
Adding filters to your strategy aims at improving your win rate by eliminating losers. It’s a way to get the odds on your side over a larger number of trades. Examples of filters you could add are: trade with the daily trend, trade with the fundamental direction, filter out unprofitable patterns, don’t trade during news events, only trade reversal patterns that complete at a key structure level, only trade breakouts after a retest of the trend line, add an extra indicator (e.g. stoch or sma line crossover or rsi divergence) or use a particular candlestick as a final entry signal. There might be a price to pay: if a particular filter delays your entry point, it can improve your win rate while reducing your reward – risk.

INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITY FACTOR
The opportunity factor relates to how many trades your method allows you to take per day / week / month. If by adding filters you are left with just a few possible trades a week, your win rate can go up, but your overall profit might suffer because there would be fewer trade candidates passing through to your filters. This will leave you with fewer trades to contribute to your overall profitability. You can increase this factor by adding more currency pairs to your portfolio or by adding trading hours to your schedule. When adding pairs, be aware of the correlation to the ones already in your portfolio.

IMPROVE YOUR TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES
Trade management relates to profiting from the trades you decide to enter. It aims at maximising your average winner while minimizing your average loser. The key is having rules that let winners run and exit losing trades without hesitation. Aim for realistic profit targets by reviewing the profit logic of your trades. Predefine a risk that you accept and don’t exceed. One of the ways you can do this, is by managing your trades in a multi-position manner, aiming for several profit targets. Take profit at various stages, as the market makes it available to you and roll your stop loss to break even or a profit protection point as the trade progresses.

DISCILPLINE AND CONSISTENCY
Once you have the right system, rules and filters in place, you just need to trade your plan consistently day in and day out. Monitor your susceptibility for making errors and eliminate them one by one. Relaxed, concentrated and mindful like a Zen Monk. Don’t overtrade by chasing entries. Don’t under-trade by arbitrarily skipping valid opportunities. Be organized and prepared. A random, inconsistent approach to trading leads to random, inconsistent results that will never be optimal. So plan your trade and trade your plan.

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
Simply put, your expectancy per month is the opportunity factor multiplied by both the win rate and the average winner less the opportunity factor multiplied by both the lose rate and the average loser. For the example from my prior topic (see the link under Related Ideas), we know that the calculation was as follows: expectancy per month = 90 x 55% x €120,00 – 90 x 45% x €80,00 = €2.700,00. I have tried to give some tips and trick on how to influence each of the variables in this calculation with the aim to arrive at an improved mix, leading to an improved profitability.
4 hours ago
AAPL, D Neutral
2 232
watching for a break of 128 for a ride down to 119 area here?
5 hours ago
BTCUSD, 240 Neutral
2 44
I would usually be short here but the fact that the weekly MACD has just crossed up is making me cautious. The price could either follow the blue arrows (consolidating within the dark red triangle more) or break out now (green arrow).

I am new to charting so comments / criticisms are welcome.

EDIT: The attached chart has the MACD scaled properly. Sorry
5 hours ago
UKOIL, 240 Short
0 36
Oil strongly resists to go down despite ongoing physical oil oversupply. Many would think that 63 resistance will not be broken and it's safe to short at this level. The market will fool you on that.

From EW structure we see that the main A-B-C zigzag is not yet completed and what could be taken for a beginning of a downward impulse during Feb 18-22 was in fact another "complex three" - corrective wave. It is likely that the market is currently drawing a contracting triangle as part of a complex C wave and we know that a triangle is _never_ a final construct. Is is just another wave B of one inner degree and the final C wave is yet to come. I therefore expect 63 will be broken, a few stops will be collected by the market and when it reaches 67, it will reverse.

Upon reaching 67, shorting opportunities will be immense.
8 hours ago
MGLN, D Long
0 6
Magellan seems to have broken out of a longer consolidation. The measured move of the channel points to a move of about 15% so I would take profits on a momentum loss at a first target around 72 or a little before.
8 hours ago
BTCCNY, D Neutral
2 737
We are in a consolidation phase. Let the market decide which way to go and buy/sell the breakout.
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout should be possible.

Are you ready ? : ]
9 hours ago
BTCUSD, 60 Long
0 74
as long as we stay above 245 - at least 240 on stamp-prices, we have a good base to get a levelup to around 272 at the beginning of the week (wich is also a new month).
9 hours ago
GBPUSD, 240 Short
0 77
To get involved, wait for the trendline break before shorting OR short when you see a bearish candle stick formation at the right shoulder.
(A good way to short is to spot divergence on the shorter time frames H1, M15 or even M5).
Stop Loss goes above the head,
9 hours ago
GBPUSD, D Short
1 89
1. As said, price faced resistance at the 38.2% retracement level from Weekly TF.
2. I can see price retracing to 1.517-1.524 zone before making another push to the up side
10 hours ago
EURGBP, W Short
0 23
Still overall bearish, Previous price action shows 50% - 75% pull backs into similar strong bearish bars which are highlighted on the chart. I am still bearish on this pair but we should see a short term pull back to around 0.73200. Look for price to slow or reject at this level for entry opportunities. This price also coincides with the .236 weekly fib.
10 hours ago
GBPUSD, W Neutral
0 54
1. GBPUSD faced resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level from the most recent down move (@ 1.5551 Level).

2. I still believe GBPUSD will retrace to the 61.8% Fibonacci Level @ 1.5922 for a re-test of the long term broken down trend line (in red).

3. Question is: Will it go there immediately or will we see a retracement before a push back up ? This is why we shift to the Daily & H4 Charts

** Keep Following **
11 hours ago
EURAUD, D Short
0 18
Pull back and short or simply short on 4H break, plan to add on retest in that particular case.
12 hours ago
SPX500, W Short
13 320
Auto-critic First
- Many people recently told me " you keep shorting a market that only goes up"
- That is partially true but is also making an implicit false statement.
(1) I have been looking for shorts since Jun14 (had some success, took profit in the right places and also got stopped tactically a few times).
(2) I am still holding the view that there is a top building process but i did not know what shape it would take (it is becoming clearer now and i will explain my view lower in this post)
(3) In the mean time the volatility has increased and although it appears the market keeps going up, overall the progress has only been 7% from top to top with many corrections of 5% and one correction of 10% within.

Going back to the market only:
- Since June 14, I "know" some sort of correction is coming (flat, fast, slow, volatile?).
- It could have had different shapes:
(a) Fast and swift 20% correction with bottoming process and resumption of the rally.
(b) A longer topping process with more shallow corrections and new high which may lead to a more lasting top (counter intuitively)

- It seems that the market has elected for (b) in the US while Europe is making its catchup.
- The Volatility Regime is interesting: volatility reduction until Jul14 and then got very agitated with no ability to break lower.
- I think the last move up is a squeeze that will leave space for another 10% correction in the next 8 weeks.
- Then i foresee, SPX may enjoy a last rally of 12/14% from 1900 which may be slow/steady over 3 months (a more sanguine rally than the Nov14 one).
- This last top in july15 (the 3rd one over 12 months) may leave the market subject to a longer/calmer/deeper correction into year end (a move where the volatility would increase gradually marking acceptance of the new price paradigm)

Conclusion in short:
- My view is the current new top is a bull trap and is part of a triple top in the second top which is forming since November 2014.
- Risk to that base scenario: some more drift up for 1/4 weeks up to 2140/2160 (europe will not allow i think).
- Whatever happens, given the posture on Dax, Nasdaq, Biotech... a correction is due in the next 8 weeks.

It is close to impossible to short tops without bearing 3/4% adverse moves over 3/5 weeks.
it is tricky because either you short small (30/40% size, that is probably the right thing to do) or you deal with options which can be eroded in theta if there is resilience.

My trading stance:
- 3 weeks ago i went short through 2000/1930 march put spread (will be a close call) and added 20% short via future.
- Now, after 3 weeks, and the market having gone up, I have added 20% short.
- The position is bleeding a bit but that was part of the game plan and I think it will perform either very well if a collapse occurs in the next 3 weeks or decently if after.

Note1: I am not holding short against a market that can make moves of 10% vertically. There is a market structure that prevents that when it comes close to the red line which only allows for drifts that are manageable (the situation was very different in Europe and that is why i have largely refrained from shorts on the DAX/ESTX).

Note2: With the latest move in Europe, the US / EUROPE posture is in better sync now.

I am a swing trader. To enjoy the honey, you need to bear some bee bites.

Don t forget the time perception, I noticed:
- People forgive me more for being wrong 5% in 2 days where i stop rather than 2% over 4 weeks where i hold my position and repeat myself.

I foresee some nice swings going forward.

Best,
Yacine Kanoun
13 hours ago
GBPUSD, 240 Short
0 34
This pair was moving to the UP side very nicely but as we can see the prices recently are not touches its upper trend line so it is indicating that pair is losing its bullish strength ...
13 hours ago
QQQ, 15 Neutral
0 12
QQQ
Notes on chart