Weekly timeframe perspective: The upward momentum from the weekly demand area at 1.0333-1.0502 seems to be crumbling, as active sellers appear to be entering the market just below a major weekly swap level coming in at 1.1096.
Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily timeframe, we can see that the sellers have so far managed to maintain a position below the daily swap level 1.0825. Assuming that they can dig in deep and defend this barrier, we may see a move south towards the daily demand area seen at 1.0461-1.0565, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice that this area was in actual fact a reaction to the larger weekly demand area mentioned above.
4hr timeframe perspective: On Wednesday, we saw price rally higher and collide with active sellers located just below 1.0800, which, as you can see, is currently holding the market lower.
In view of the higher-timeframe technical structure (see above in bold), the EUR/USD outlook remains relatively negative in our opinion. With this in mind, our team’s main focus for today will be looking for CONFIRMED sell trades around either 1.0800, or the small 4hr decision-point supply area seen just above it at 1.0844-1.0809. This area of 4hr supply is particularly significant to us, as it was here pro money likely made the decision to break below the aforementioned daily swap level. Should a short entry be seen at either of the aforementioned 4hr zones, we have two targets in mind. The first comes in at 1.0700, the second, at a relatively fresh-looking 4hr demand area seen at 1.0612-1.0658.
These two 4hr hurdles are, as far as we can see, all that’s stopping price from reaching the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.0461-1.0565 (see the daily timeframe analysis above).
Current buy/sell orders:
• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: 1.0800 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.0844-1.0809 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0851).