2 hours ago
Now it's just a debate: if the current up fork is going to hold or fail, as price has crossed it from its upper parallel to the lower one with ease. This market is in a very-long-term down trend, found resistance above 94 and then even below that level. Now it is about to say, whether it's going to stay within the fork or not. It can either turn into an overshoot and go up again or... continue lower toward some support level. If the fork holds, we should see price go up to at least 0.937, otherwise we'll see, if either 38.2% retracement level or prior lows' support is going to hold.
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial adivice.
2 hours ago
Huge gartley / harmonic pattern setting up on AUDCAD - ready to drop like Jerry Garcia's acid before a 30 minute solo. My target is the .618 retracement of the CD leg.
3 hours ago
Price has bounced from the 127 ext D-point at 0,9425 and
has reached the D-level which held as support May 21, but
has since been breached and price is now testing the important
long term horizontal S/R level at 0,9285. Next support is
the TL. If price breach this level the next will be 0,9210
which is also a potential neckline of a H/S if price bounce
from here. However, the trend is bullish and chances are
that price will find support around current levels and look
higher towards the 161 ext D-point at 0,9575. A breaching
of 0,9310 with a confirming close will improve bullish
3 hours ago
H4 charts has a nice bearish flag with price having broken it. Gives a target to 0.856... the same region that forms a longer term base. I think this could be the last time test to this level before USDCHF could start pushing higher. Let's see how this works.
3 hours ago
Inside day with decreasing volume in this double bottom scenario around 1,277 area, that needs to hold.
Momentum is diverging, but price needs a close above Gann 3/1 and 50 fib to prove it wants higher.
In such a case, and if 1295 falls, we might see "13" again in front of price, and some bullish pressure will be created. Short covering is not enough to drive price up for long.
3 hours ago
Miners working on a bullish engulfing week so far and a right shoulder against the metal.
If symmetry is any guide, hints that we will have maybe another month spend in this bottoming IH&S formation.
4 hours ago
Caterpillar price managed to breach above 61.8% fibonacci level and trying to build support base above it, which assists to push the price for more positive targets, waiting for our main target around 116.94.
More support comes from the EMA50 to protect the positive scenario.
4 hours ago
The price has nicely reacted to 1.3851-1.3864 zone, which is just around the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the previous downswing. These two levels define a zone for shorts, so look for any kind of weakness there to enter short.
If the current lower range boundary is breached and the price closes strongly below 1.3789, it would be time for further decline and shorts off that level are high potential opportunities.
A strong bounce off of 1.3789 might be a sign that the range-bound market continues, so intraday long trade setup around 1.3789 is likely.
A strong close above 1.3864 migh indicate that eur is about to go higher, so look for any pullback showing some weakness of bears to join the bulls there. Target for longs is at 1.3900.
Forex, Futures & Options Trader
YouTube Channel: http://bit.ly/17jWiog
5 hours ago
The Choppiness Index was created by E.W. Dreiss out of chaos theory, and attempts to gauge the current market's trendiness.
I've seen a few versions of this floating around, but this was built off the true version as described in the original 1993 release, you can read more about it here: http://www.edwards-magee.com/ggu/dreisscaos.pdf
Values above 61.8 are considered very choppy, values below 38.2 are considered very trendy, but values along the entire scale can help you determine position sizing, or even weather you should be getting into this trade or not.
If you are looking for a new way to know weather the market is trending, about to trend, or just going sideways, this very handy indicator for algorithmic trading may be your answer.
Grab the source code here: http://pastebin.com/GEtpw6Pd
Installation video by @ChrisMoody here : http://blog.tradingview.com/?p=265
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I'd like as many people as possible to get it :)
9 hours ago
This indicator was originally noted in the tradingview help forums. Noted from "Google's Finance Site," but they use a modified (using EMA instead of traditional SMA) slow stochastic with the %J equation (%J =3 * D – 2 * K ). I can't find any references to the origins of the %J equation, but it is noted in several other online sites.https://getsatisfaction.com/tradingview/topics/pine_script_for_kdj_indicator
So, I've taken the indicator and made some options, upgrades and published it for free!. The basic foundation of the code is still the %J equation. I've included an option to use either the EMA (default) and the SMA (more traditional slow stochastic). You can also adjust the lookback period, %D smoothing, and I've included the option to smooth the %J. This last option slows the indicator down a little, but really cuts out the choppiness of the %J crossings.
Get the source here: http://pastebin.com/CVrVn9F6
Installation video by @ChrisMoody here : http://vimeopro.com/user14689865/tradingviewcom-how-to-videos
11 hours ago
The EURUSD seems to be forming a strong bearish divergence with both the MACD and the RSI. I believe this divergence will reverse after it reaches the 1.3965 - 1.4000 price range. Technicals are signaling further continuation to the upside after the bounce off the 38% retracement as well as a bounce off a new support lvl (1.3820 - 1.3780) which was previously was a strong range of resistance. The chart also appears to be forming a rising wedge which I think will turn into a bear breakout after price reaches 1.4000 or the 1.3965 multiyear high and reverse or possibly sooner depending on next weeks fundamental releases.
12 hours ago
After the third touch on a significant resistance level around the 1.9000 level the AUDNZD looks like it might either be ready to break out of its 4 month range and continue south. Beware of minor support lvl of 1.0750 before going short. This can either turn out to be a good range trade or the beginning of a longer term trend continuation.
Entry range - 1.0850 - 1.0880
Target Range - 1.0570 - 1.0540
Stop Loss - No higher than 1.1000
14 hours ago
The gold sector has been rather sanguine of late and considering the lack luster performance of the underlying, that sector under performance is understandable. I believe there are areas within the gold space that are starting to offer 'value' investors some very interesting propositions. The great part of 'value' investing is we are often presented ideas when nobody else is interested. In fact, for one reason or another, the public is generally selling when we are thinking of buying. Because we are buying 'value' (and not too concerned about day to day fluctuations) we seem to get lots of time to accumulate our positions. Once these names put in 'technical' bottoms (which seem to come around our 'value' levels but can take some time to develop) price seems to take off very quickly. Anxiety can get high during those breakouts and FOMO can often lead to poor trade location decisions. So the question is, as 'value' investors what's the most efficient way to be a shareholder? Interestingly, Options by far are the most efficient way of become a stockholder but very few in the public understand how they work. Put-option-writes are, in my opinion, the only way investors should ever take long positions in large cap stocks. Not only does one buy the stock with the Put-option-write (keep in mind we fully expect to get exercised) but we also get to take advantage of bearish sentiment (through inflated premiums). Indeed, the case for writing options gets even more compelling if you understand how the modern day brokerage system works. If you chose to hold the position on margin in your brokerage account, you can literally collect enough of that bearish sentiment premium to pay the margin requirement to hold the stock indefinitely (as long as it stays 'option eligible') and get a little bit extra too - my 'get paid to buy stock' scenario....Here then above is a graphical demonstration of the WDB model in action. The model suggested we could get paid $3.10 by writing the August, 2014 $5.00 Put. If done and exercised, the margin requirement to hold the $5.00 position would be $1.50 (30% of underlying). Keep in mind, we were paid $3.10 (more than a 200% premium) ahead of time....Target to sell half the position is double our cash cost price ($3.80) which should create a 'risk free' trade on the remaining shares. That level seems achievable considering it is well below the natural 38.2 Fib & 200 week sma.
If my charts help you, or you use my indicators...
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15 hours ago
After taking a pause from posting trading ideas on BTC (because I am either in BTC or cash and have been sitting in cash for a while now) I thought I would take some time today to review the 1 hour BTC chart and where it might be suggesting price wants to go over the near term. First off, you will notice several 'M' tops on the chart today. That alone suggests to me the bears are in control not the bulls. Couple that with the fact that the latest rally could not even get back up into the OTE short zone (rally peak was 518 and 61.8 or bottom of zone was 519) and I see more evidence that the bears are in control. Willy did get a little 'stupid overbought' there on that rally so it isn't too surprising to see Willy work his back back down into the oversold zone once again. While that may be reason for the bulls to start paying attention, we have neither a bottom in the raw momentum (MACD Histogram), a bottom in volume (OBV) or a bottom in price, Put it all together and I am still looking for lower prices ahead not higher. It do see the OTE long zone (off this entire rally from Mid April) currently sits between 431 and 456 and that shall be my target zone over the coming sessions. Should the indicators support long ideas once we get down into that range I may consider getting back in on the long side of BTC - until then....cash is king.
15 hours ago
This chart just seems worth republishing - untouched.
17 hours ago
The piercing line candle in the Juniors/Large miners got confirmation and the NUGT trade opened.
Needs a lot of work, as PM complex is in a downtrend, but the chart present a possible ABCD, a C&H pattern, a falling bullish wedge that is about to break and everybody I know or I read is bearish or short gold and miner stocks.
A lot, and I mean a lot of junior miner stocks presents H&S tops too, but since we are at the or near the bottom, might not be the best pattern to follow as it has poor results. On the other hand, shorts are creating the bottoms in a harry to bye back their positions when such patterns fail.
Last COT's looks ok, sentiment data are ok too- not at the pessimistic extremes I would like to - Rydex assets holders have the smallest investment in PM's as usual, GOFO's are still negative, public opinion of Gold is around the middle level (50) and seasonals show late April until mid June is good period.http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/seasonal/seasonalGC.php
All these ok, but the R/R is what made me push the button. 1 R loss gives a good sleep.
cheers and all the best
p.s. I have destroyed a couple of accounts with 3X leveraged products during the early - before R/R and trading journal- years. Take care.
19 hours ago
Here you have a review of the etf i use to trade clean energy. We have a possibility for it to get to the second cup
19 hours ago
That was a small waiting period from the last idea (I stretched out my SL, now placed it at a TP stop). The SHORT happened around the GBP news that the net public sector borrowing is NOT as high as expected, meaning that the gov't stepped in a bit. Combine that with the poor USD new housing and we got the LT consolidating triangle.
Continue to HOLD SHORT for the following reasons:
1) No news from GBP, JPY, or USD until tomorrow morning PST (USD Core Goods)
2) that consolidating triangle (the masses seem to like that idea and over took the LONGs)
3) Danske's TP stop was taken out at 171.4, from their LONG at 169.9
4) MACD crossed at zero
Confirmation of SHORT would be to get past the longer MAs
Watch out for:
1) RSI coming back up
2) NZD's official cash rate and statement later today.