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2 hours ago
0 59
This is a follow up on the previous analysis posted a month ago. I've been bearish on EURAUD for a while. And RBA rate cuts or no, Euro is more fundamentally weaker than the Aussie and technically too, the signs are far too many to miss.

This is a long term trade idea. The ones you can set and forget without being getting involved too close. Longer term target is 1.295 with an optimistic lower dip to 1.16 as well.

Taking short positions in EURAUD is also rewarding in the overnight swaps. And as long as RBA stays above the 1% interest rate, we should expect to see +ve rollover swaps. Considering this is the weekly trade, expect to keep this trade open for at least a few quarters at the minimum. The collected swaps will amount to quite some money.
2 hours ago
USDJPY, D Neutral
8 140
Not trivial.

If breaks 120.30, it could reach 122 rather quickly.

if 120.30 retains, a failure of the channel up would probably bring to 117 later this months.
2 hours ago
USOIL, 240 Long
0 83
- Consolidation is taking place around Tenkan Sen. A close above Tenkan would be first weekly bullish signal, indicating further pull back towards Kijun Sen.
- haDelta seems to be turning up again. A bullish cross and a move above zero line would give a further push towards higher levels. Important to see how this week's candle will develop. Oscillator stays bullish.

- Most importantly Kijun Sen holds again. Bears tried it again today, but could not push price below 48,75-95 support area. Chikou Span is also turning up from past candle tops.
- Heikin Ashi candle turns green, with haDelta/SMA3 bullish cross. haDelta attempts to slip above zero line. Positive divergence in haDelta persists.
- A close above daily Tenkan Sen would confirm further bullish Price action towards range top at 54, or maybe even higher to 56

- You may think you are late with buying, but if you look at 4H time frame you realise you are not. Price has just broke above Kijun Sen and is just trying to break the small bearish trendline. With current bullish candle we will have a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross too. Chikou Span is also making a weak bullish cross above Price candles.
- Heikin Ashi candle isbullish with a long body, thus haDelta makes a bullish cross again above zero line. Oscillator is bullish.
- Expect massive short covering in case of a break above 51 (Kumo top)

3 hours ago
NASX, W Neutral
1 68
Well well.

If we dont short this, Technical Analysis becomes obsolete.

of course, it can remain in the area and mark marginal tops above 5000 but overall in the next 8 weeks, there is a window of opportunity for a short that could be a nice one.
3 hours ago
SPX500, D Neutral
0 146
A correction is pending.

The best case resilience is between 1 day and 4 weeks from here.

if resilience it could be flat or climb 20/30pts from here.

When it falls (confirmed by trading below 2055), it will likely break decisively the 2000 area to test the 1900 area.

A large rally could ensue again (if market fundamentals remained the same during the correction).
3 hours ago
PGN, 60 Neutral
2 35
Ma's need to comes down in lvl before any significant bounce.

It's an oil play so we probably need to see oil go higher could take a couple of days

I'm neutral at the moment

Safe trading ladies & gents!


Music at work:
Can't find it on youtube...
3 hours ago
EURAUD, 240 Short
3 41
As pair broke our key resistance level at 1.4404, I'd expect further extensions up, toward at least nearest resistance at 1.45 area. At some point afterwards EURAUD should potentially hit the target at 1.4260 or lower.
4 hours ago
SPX500, 60 Neutral
4 174
Objectively: bull flag

Candide - you buy.
Vicious - you sell.

ISM will conclude the posture in 24 minutes.
7 hours ago
AAPL, 1 Short
0 87
AAPL coiled late Friday afternoon, followed by a high volume breakdown.
7 hours ago
EURJPY, 60 Short
10 358
I am fully aware of the risk that sequels tend not to be as good as the original (Rocky comes to mind), but I could not resist putting this pair on my watch list again. As my last two publications on this one (see links under Related Ideas) left me with a good amount of pips, I thought I would try to cash in again. I therefore present to you the new installment in the EURJPY series: Consolidation Mode Part III. This pair has been ranging around the key structure kevel of 135.14 for almost 27 days. Despite the mixed Euro data that came out this morning, price drove up 70 pips, so after breaking the key structure level to the downside last Thursday, price is now approaching it again from below.

On the technical side, we can see the contour of a bearish Bat on the hourly timeframe that completes at the mentioned structure level. Price comfortably passed the B point this morning and progressed 55% towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ). When defining the PRZ for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2618 BC). This defines a clear and tight zone, about 20 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. The key structure level at 135.14 lies smack in the middle of this zone, increasing the odds on a reversal.

Should the price climb enough to test the PRZ, stabilise and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. Normally, I look for TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD, but in this instance I have placed them both a little higher due to structure support levels.

There are 101 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 3.1!
7 hours ago
SPX500, D Neutral
1 150
The chart illustrates the risk reward.

Both SP500 and DAX are hugging their resistance.

Although big moves over 4 weeks are skewed down, there is no way to know if the market is going to elect for more grinding over 4 weeks.

Price Action reading: 2 weeks ago the setup could easily have delivered a correction but the news flow was relatively positive and supported 2/3% upside over 3 weeks (Denmark cutting, Yellen confirming stance, China Cutting... coming close to ECB QE....)

In short: upside is limited but resilience could occur.
A dangerous long,
A potentially frustrating short.

My stance is short in a light fashion that would enable to survive resilience.
7 hours ago
ZNM2015, D Long
0 26
- Some hesitation freak happened by the end of last week due to mixed FED comments and mixed US macro data, but in fact the weekly Heikin Ashi candle with both upper and lower wicks is a signal for possible bullish continuation.
- haDelta is further up
- Ichimoku setup and the bullish trendline is intact, weekly Tenkan and Senkou A both point up.

- Here you can see more clearly the sign of hesitation within the Kumo cloud. Two bullish HA candles followed by one green with two wicks and by one red. This might have freaked a few longs. however Price held above Kumo bottom (current Senkou B) and today we may get a green Heikin Ashi candle again, with haDelta crossing up above SMA3. In this case the haDelta bullish cross would take place above zero line.
- The bias I think is still bullish, obviously real acceleration would take place above Kumo and Kijun Sen, so if Price could make a break above 128,50. That is the level where counter bears would capitulate and where more conservative trend followers would add to long positions.

p.s.: I don't really understand why the bullish trend in 10Y Treasury should change, when more than 17 % of global debt is trading at negative yield now! Of course this is the biggest bond bubble ever in history, but it won't end any time soon. Not until CBs all around are printing fia money.
Some may say "OK, but the FED is about to hike rates!". Yeah, they say they want to, but will they do it? Anyway, retae hike is pretty much priced into the front end of US curve, and even if that happen, that will be very gradual, causing curve flattenning rather than blowing up 10Y yields.
Anyway, the chart will tell you in time when to exit and when to enter bearish UST positions. For now I don't see reason to be strategic bearish on 10Y Treasuries.
7 hours ago
AMZN, 15 Short
0 33
Nice rectangle trade in AMZN on Friday. Biggest option open interest was at 380, so that helped make the pattern work.
7 hours ago
NZDUSD, 60 Short
0 126
NZD/USD has formed descending triangle pattern and any break below 0.7510 will confirm the break out .
On the downside any break below will target 0.7470/0.7420 in short term. Any trend reversal can happen only above 0.7570 and above that it can reach 0.7620/0.7655.

Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Sell
CCI (14) – Sell
Ichimoku- Sell

Recommendation: Sell NZD/USD around 0.7530, SL 0.7570, Targets 0.7471/0.7425 .

7 hours ago
SPX500, D Short
1 157
Let's have a check list and see what and how is changing in Price action.

- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.

- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)

I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.

For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.

p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
8 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
0 417
Double bottom potential, at 2000 61.8% retracement.
RSI slight bullish divergence.
Range boxes.
Stochastics turning up.
Falling Wedge like formation.
8 hours ago
XAUUSD, 240 Short
1 224
Gold has formed triple top around $1225 and any trend reversal only above that level. Any break of $1225 could open the way for another test of $1236 (R2 Feb 16th high).

On the downside $1200 (S1) is minor support and any break below will drag the commodity to $1190/$1170.

Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Sell
CCI (14) – Sell
Ichimoku- Sell

Recommendation: Sell Gold around $1216, SL 1230, Targets $1190/$1171.

8 hours ago
USDCAD, 60 Short
1 116
Resistance met at 50% dual level.
Triangle potential brake_out.
RSI geometry potential brake_out.
Under 50, 200 sma.