Ever since BTC's massive jump to +1000 it has been way overvalued. One might even argue the first quarter of 2013 had a significant amount of upward movement. And while certainly the increase in popularity (and therefore demand for something new to the world - a new type of money) can be attributed to this, the jump to +1000 was clearly "the herd" jumping on the bandwagon and we have been dropping ever since that event.
BTC, as long as nothing major occurs in the world, now has to find it's "resting place". It's value, vs USD can of course be hugely affected by the strength/weakness of the USD itself, which, since late 2014/early 2015 has shown some significant strength against most other major currencies. Go ahead and pull up some charts against the EURO, Pound, Swiss, JPY, etc, USD is gaining strength - it would easily be safe to assume that this is part of the reason it's price has continued to swing down since November. So always keep that in mind when looking specifically at BTCUSD.
I believe it will be quite difficult for BTC to break much below 100 at any point soon, unless, again, something drastic happens like a massive flaw is publicized, discrediting the entire crypto system (or specifically BTC or any crypto coin that runs off a BTC derivative).
Also keep in mind that if/when the USD loses it's strength, BTC will go up against it. China is getting closer and closer each day to taking a major dominating position in the world economy.
Anyway, I'll leave your thoughts with that for now.