BTC has had a strong showing the last 4 days coming out of a multi week break out with MACD turning green on the weekly. BTC has been in a persistent weekly downtrend since breaking down in late july early august. At around 6-7 motnhs of downturn and super capitualatory behavior (320 to 160 in two weeks) bitcoin is due for a massive mean reversion . I am calculating aorund 40-50% return from base of 1480, which means we have around 20% more to go.
But.. don't be so quick to buy yet. Looking and comparing patterns to may move, which showed similar behavior in structure, volume, and rsi patterns, shows that we might be in for a retrace of 4-6% here from top, which would mean 1690-1710 is next buy area. On the right is a snapshot of present and on the left a snapshot of may march up.
I strongly believe sympathy is beginning to change and this isn't just a two- three day pump and dump.
I don't expect anything drastic like a bubble or renewed super hype to past 500 or anything, but i do think 340-360 is a reasonable 1-2 week target.
If bitcoin stays below 1690 for a large amount of time, or break through 1690 strongly and on high volume the pattern could be bust. but with over 6-7 months to sell, multiple downturns, and tons of time sub 250, its hard to say who is left to sell.
Technicals : 200 6h MA is finally trying to turn upwards in a constructive fahsion. it tried before during the 450+ parabolic behavior, but it was quickly shut down because it happened so fast
pattern: This pattern is much more constructive than prior patterns such as coinbase hype and the prior hype. There are more doubters, it is moving slower, and there are constructive higher lows and very little whipshaws. Each leg is around equal in size (100-120 yuan)
fundamentals: I don't really think these matter, but OTC investment trust news is nice. Of course we still have a steady amount of bitcoin related stuff with sidechains and other startups. To me the most staggering "fundamnetal" is how much brainpower is being invested into bitcoin. We have top PhD's, researches, and crypto-analyst working in numerous projects. It really is pretty insane.
bad news : China continues to have a lot of control over hash power. Kind of scary to have one country have so much hash power of a decentralized currencyokco