A long silence here on $BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart:
For the adept in Geo, look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line.
GEO's OFF-SET RULE:
As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that:
Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target);
Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example);
Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3.
NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that:
Off-Set Rule #2 > Off-Set Rule #1 >>> Off-Set Rule #3
Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target:
1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016
2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016
The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid.
Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
LinkedIn: David Alcindor