8 hours ago
COMP, W Neutral
3 157
Friends,

Following a dead-on hit target @ 5786.81 defined last October 30th 2013 (see links below), we evaluated each impulses that preceded the recent two historical major market retracement - Following are (circa) dates, impulse lengths in weeks and percentage retracements:

1 - NOV 1994 to FEB 2000 / Approx. 275 weeks / 61.8% retrac.
and
2 - MAR 2003 to JUN 2008 / Approx. 278 weeks / 93.5% retrac.

As the current Fed-engorged impulse nears that 275-day moment, question is whether this period has any significance, and whether it is about to repeat itself into another significant decline.

Historical bursting-bubble analyst have already project significant abysmal retracement projections, one most notorious is Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr, author of several demographic based predictions that occurred with quite impressive precision outcomes. In essence, he believe that all bubbles burst, and all bubbles revert to an initial growth trendline from which the bubble was born - In the chart, the trendline is arguably drawn in yellow, although a gentle trendline might also act as a supportive target. In such case, we would be seeing DOW Composite values between 2425 to 2800, if his theory turns out to be true.

In any case, the main interest here is to merely highlight what remains to be proven, which is a 175 to 178 week cycle of ramped up prices, followed by a major depressive decline that historically retraced over 2/3 of historical gains.

Then again, the market (Fed, really) may have resources that could far surpass the time any single counter-trend investor may be willing to endure, especially in such artificial market.

Worth keeping in mind, though.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

PS: Following are links to:
1 - Original $COMP forecast:
- https://www.tradingview.com/v/QNP9Xp8w/
2 - Successful Target Hit:
- https://www.tradingview.com/v/3W5DLAEe/
3 - Additional 275-Week chart comment:
- https://www.tradingview.com/v/iuNsxmMz/

https://www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/


---------------------------------------------
Follow my analysis, forecasts and signals on Twitter.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
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1 hour ago
SPX500, 240 Neutral
1 50
This post is rather an observation, not yet really a big trade idea. Of course if you feel like, you can trade based on it, but keep in mind there are not yet firm trade signals to rush for.

The charts are: 4 Hrs Ichimoku, 4 Hrs with Heiken Ashi, 1 Hr Ichimoku
Daily chart I did not attach this time, as that is clearly bullish, with lot of support levels lower and with no real chance for a break or a bearish reversal.

The current bullish move from the lows was pretty impressive and very quick. SP500 is about to reach the top of the trading range. What we have to start watching now is where it will print the next high close to 1900, well actually if we can see a higher, or a lower next local high compared to the previous all time high on the 4 Hrs time frame.
Anyway I would not be surprised if we see some correction today down to 1865-1870 levels. Slow Stoch is overbought and turning lower again after this strong bullish march, and we may see the first red Heiken Ashi candle as well. 1865 is important as there is the Kijun line too. If price can not pop up from there again gaining back the bullish momentum, then as you can see on 1 Hr time frame it can easily become more than just a 10-15 points pull back. With a 1 Hr chart Kumo break and additional Ichimoku sell signals it could be hit lower to next possible support of 1850-1855.

The difference now compared to previous breakdown in early April is that the 4 Hrs Kumo is pretty far below price and it is thick enough, so very likely even a bit bigger correction would be bought first ard 1840-1850.

This means even if we see some sell signals, either position sizes should be limited to half unit on shorts, or the stop loss has too be very tight. Be cautious with bearish trades, but be a lot more cautious with bullish bets! :-)

Generally I like to sleep well, so what I like to do here is to open very small outright short + buying some Put options and Put spreads for June maturity. Who knows, maybe Puts can work a lot better in time with less stress. And as you may have already realised I am kind of strategic bearish for equities at these levels, so I rather look for short opportunities.

p.s.: the reason I have been looking at 1 Hr time frame recently is that since equity indexes are trading in a wide range, it is kind of too late to get proper and confident signals on 4 Hrs and on daily time frames. 1 Hr chart supports swing trade ideas better. And as you see, Ichimoku works on all time frames. Of course the best is when you have multi time frame Ichimoku signals which stregthen each other.
2 hours ago
EURAUD, D Neutral
0 45
So price didn't move much after the Aussie unemployment data was released... blame it on the stubborn Euro!!

Anyhow, the Head & Shoulders seem to be holding its ground although the target of 1.45 - 1.43 hasn't been hit yet. Current retracement could see 1.508 before dropping. If this is the case, then its a classic text book study of Support/Resistance (I've plotted the moves on the white box to the left).

A retest of the neckline usually gives a robust confirmation of the H&S target. So i'll be closely watching this pair. If a good reversal pattern forms at 1.508 - 1.505 then i'll be keen to short this pair. However, the stops for this comes in a bit further up at the right shoulder (c. 1.54 - 1.55).

Also, if the trend line is tested and confirmed it would be a beautiful trade to take on. Because we get 3 confirmations.

1. Head & Shoulders
2. Past support turns resistance
3. Price respects the downward trend line

So for now, just keep an eye out on EURAUD... and AUDUSD.. one of these two will clue you into Aussie strength or weakness.
3 hours ago
GBPJPY, 240 Long
0 89
Will buy this market when this last leg in the triangle is complete.
As 167.7 holds, look for a test of 175-area. After that we should
see a sell off in 5 waves to complete wave IV flat.
Long term view https://twitter.com/atliveanner/status/458380010412179456/photo/1

You can follow all my demo trades at
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/tlkemmy/demo/854232

Good luck!
3 hours ago
USDCHF, D Long
0 37
While on EURUSD I still have no real and strong conviction to trade (it is still consolidating with no real momentum on any sides), USDCHF I prefer to go long in smaller clips slowly.

Please see my arguments in the previous post linked below.

On the back of EURUSD move today, finally USDCHF traded lower as well. Based on my previous idea I bought some small today. I will not use a 4 Hrs stop this time, rather watch how it trades on the daily time frame, as the space within the triangle is tightenning. My strategy is to add to longs in really small clips down to 0,8765, and place stop only below 0,8730. I can not promise it will work, it has a big risk as we try to catch the bottom now, instead of waiting for a proper breakout on the top side, but the idea is to build a bigger and longer term strategic position. If you follow this strategy, please make sure you adjust your position sizes properly based on your general risk management strategy! Do not risk too much at once, do not go into high leverage until the bullish reversal really confirms!

p.s.: I doubt Draghi would like to see EUR lot higher from here, I think he will naturally deliver a dovish speach.
4 hours ago
AUDUSD, D Neutral
0 124
Quarterly CPI came out soft and Aussie declined across the board + China Flash PMI despite an increase from 48 to 48.3 was still seen as weak. In line with this chart, next support is likely to come in around 0.912 - 0.92 levels. 6 days for NFP data before the next big move. Also on the same day (02/05) Aussie PPI will be released as well.

Note that on 01/05 we get China manufacturing PMI which is yet another risk to AUD.

A retracement to 0.93 is ideal to short or to add to the position, provided it comes in before this Friday or by next Tuesday at the latest. It will be more valid if AUDUSD declines more, bounces off the lower channel line and then continues its decline picking up from 0.93.

The next 6 days will be critical to the AUDUSD as in the past we see how this pair usually deviates from its direction only to pick up the original direction from the NFP release day.

The way I see it.. if Aussie retraces to 0.93 before NFP release then it comes in line with the overall view. A drop to 0.912 regions and then pick up from NFP day (unless NFP is 'Extremely' bullish, which includes bullish revision to the past, better than expected jobs and unemployment rate).
6 hours ago
USDCAD, D Neutral
0 47
The recent aggressive drop in USDCAD bounced higher@ 38.2 retracement level (by the pip basically) and made its way back above Pitchfork Median Line and consolidated there for days. What does it tell us? Well, the pair is well bid, that's for sure and taking into account the fact that we consolidated above the Median Line gives me every reason to be more bullish than bearish (short term). Also the recent drop from the highs comes down in a fairly steep angle which makes me even more suspicious about the bearish outlook.
10 hours ago
SPX, M Neutral
2 93
Revised: now using the "MA Cross" indicator which has the actual cross drawn on the chart. Previously I was using my eyes to spot and missed 4 crossovers.

Use 3 month EMA and 5 month EMA cross over as signal to enter or exit market.

Monitoring - once every month at last trading day of the month.
Buy - when 3M EMA crosses above 5M EMA
Sell - when 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA

Since 2000, this system needs only 14 trades, avoids most of losses and captures most of the gains.

According to this system, if you are a long term investor, you should keep investing now until 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA.
13 hours ago
JNPR, W Long
0 74
200 dma bounce and support, weekly looks good may be worth a longer term tradeā€¦..technically suggest checking the fundamentals to insure earnings growth
14 hours ago
TSL, W Long
0 82
Trina Solar bottomed at the end of 2012. Six months in 2013, and a rounded bottom pattern was visible, and a new uptrend emerged.

I find getting into an existing trend a very hard task. On TSL, I see a double top pattern, and a rejection from its neckline, with a hammer, and a good start of the current week. The histogram stopped falling, so a long entry is safe.

My plan is to go long, with a stop under the hammer. After a close over 13.50$, I will move the stop under the current candle, at 11.60$. After a close over 15$, an important psychological level, I will move the stop loss to breakeven. At the first target I will close 50% of the position. I will be holding the rest of the position until I see a serious warning signal, with the stop left at breakeven, or below a swing low, if there will be one.
18 hours ago
AUDJPY, D Neutral
1 54
Price has almost reached the completion of two ABCD
patterns within a large daily ABCD with completion right at
the tops from 2007 around 108.The 76,4 fib of larger and
minor pattern has become a support and resistance level
at 95,30. Longs that aim for 97,5 and 100 should be
place below this level around 94,50. 100 level is the1,61
Butterfly sell level and a ABCD 127ext D point. Price has
stopped at 88,6 fib of CD leg and coiled below it and above
95 level but price now attemps to look higher.
20 hours ago
DDD, D Long
2 226
My last 3D idea didn't work out, as the whole market, especially the tech stocks continued their fall.

Now, all the stocks are turning up, and DDD has a very nice picture.
There's a tripple divergence on the MACD histogram, and another divergence on the FI.
First major resistance is at 55. If that level gets broken, I expect a rally to the 70$ area.
21 hours ago
FCH, D Long
0 13
Saw this post from https://www.tradingview.com/u/patientcheetah/ and wanted to do a little research,

Plenty of selling into the upper band (with previous healthy volume), today (and past two days) we have a low volume build up and breakout (today). Thinking this will fail (no volume associated with move up on shorter time frames), and then fall back to the lower support at the 9.00 level.

Good potential for an earnings surprise ($0.08 EPS), so with an estimate at $0.02 EPS, this could give you a good reason to power through the upper bound. (no sellers up their, just profit taking). Be ready just a couple of more days.
22 hours ago
VRX, D Long
0 132
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices in the areas of eye health, dermatology, and neurology therapeutic classes worldwide. Every single day I watch Unusual Options Activity and talk to my subscribers about the trades at www.keeneonthemarket.com I watch over 1,500 trades daily and yesterday I saw a trade that was so unusual that I thought it was worth mentioning. A trader bought 2,000 FURX June 105 Calls for $3.90. Lets breakdown their trade:

Institutional Order: Trader bought 1,804 VRX June 135 Calls for $5.90
Cash Outlay: $1,064,360
Potential Profit: Unlimited

Overnight the Stock gapped higher and these Calls have moved in value from $5.90 to $7.90, so lets breakdown their profits:

1804 * 2.00 * 100= $360,000 Profits
22 hours ago
FURX, D Long
1 85
Furiex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a drug development company that is involved in compound development and collaboration activities primarily in the United States. Every single day I watch Unusual Options Activity and talk to my subscribers about the trades at www.keeneonthemarket.com I watch over 1,500 trades daily and yesterday I saw a trade that was so unusual that I thought it was worth mentioning. A trader bought 2,000 FURX June 105 Calls for $3.90. Lets breakdown their trade:

Institutional Order: Trader bought 2,000 FURX June 105 Calls for $3.90
Cash Outlay: $780,000
Potential Profit: Unlimited

Overnight the Stock gapped higher and these Calls have moved in value from $3.90 to $5.30, so lets breakdown their profits:

2,000 * 1.4 * 100= $280,000 Profits
22 hours ago
FB, D Long
10 313
Facebook is detaching from a 7-day mode with today's action, marking today as day 1. The chart shows how the trends unfolded into the decline two weeks ago and how FB held an important 17-day mode of support from the rally phase back in Jan-March.

It is interesting to note how a stock distributes and how it accumulates and how it shows on the graph. In this case, FB failed to decline by the appropriate amount into the low recently, which means that there were ample buyers at that level standing ready to purchase shares and there were NOT enough sellers to drive it to that level. The market will always go to where the most orders will fill (from my observation of the markets over 31 years).

Keep in mind that 73-74 is also the equivalent level of SUPPLY for Facebook where there are so many sellers that were standing ready to unload that the price never made it there. So, don't expect a new high to be greeted by a blast off, but rather expect another correction from a new high, if we get there.

For now, look for 7 days of rally with today being day 1. The price target is for reference. The stop is under the mode where the 7 is labeled.
1 day ago
YNDX, D Long
0 77
Ukraine turmoil all priced in
Upside to 44$ish by end of summer

Bullish Divergence
Confluence support